Q-poll puts Perry ahead by 6 over Romney, 14 over Bachmann

posted at 8:45 am on August 31, 2011 by Ed Morrissey

We’ve had the media polls and Zogby tell us that Rick Perry has become the frontrunner in the Republican presidential primary polling at the moment.  Now we can add an academic poll as well.  Quinnipiac’s latest survey, released this morning, shows the Texas governor with an six-point lead over Mitt Romney, and 14 points over Michele Bachmann:

Texas Gov. Rick Perry has zoomed to the front of the line of GOP presidential candidates with a 24 – 18 percent lead over former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney among Republican voters, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released today. Romney and President Barack Obama are in a dead heat while Perry trails the president by 3 points in 2012 matchups.

The timing seems propitious, as voters have tired of Barack Obama as President:

The percentage of all registered voters who say President Obama deserves a second term in the Oval Office has fallen to a negative 42 – 51 percent, matching a 41 – 50 percent all-time low reading on whether he deserves another four years in office from a March 30 survey.

Quinnipiac polled for Palin in the race; she gets 11% of respondents, just one percentage point ahead of Bachmann and 13 behind Perry.  Interestingly, no one benefits if Palin decides not to run.  The three frontrunners in the race now would all add two points to their current position.

The internals of the polls favor Perry over almost all comers as well.  He wins almost all of the demographic categories — men, women, military households — except for 18-34YO voters, which Palin wins by a single point (18%) over Romney, Perry, and Ron Paul (17%).  Although Palin will join a Tea Party tour next week, Perry wins almost a third of self-described Tea Party “members” (32%).  Bachmann comes in a distant second at 15%, Romney third at 12%, and Palin fourth at 11%.

In head-to-head matchups with Obama, Romney and Perry perform similarly.  Romney has a 45/45 tie, while Perry has a 42/45 virtual tie within the margin of error.  Romney is more well known, however, as 55% of the survey respondents don’t know enough about Perry to form an opinion of him.  Among Republicans, Perry has a high favorability rating of 44/5 (it’s 22/23 among the general population), compared to Romney’s 36/27 among Republicans.  In order to regain the momentum, Romney will have to go after Perry in the debates, shedding his above-the-fray persona, in order to dent that favorability advantage Perry has at the moment.

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So how about discussing the polls after Palin announces her run for POTUS?

ChuckTX on August 31, 2011 at 12:29 PM

The stroy was about Perry leading the other candidates. It was either a favor, or an insult, to Palin depending on how a person views her.

I’m sure there will be plenty of threads discussing Palin when she enters the race. Bashing threads because they do not suit your desires is kind of, well it is dumb.

cozmo on August 31, 2011 at 12:35 PM

Now if I may express an opinion on Gov. Perry….

I see his rise in the polls due to the fact that he is saying so much of what people are thinking. Who has come out against B.O., other than Sarah? No one.

Now we are mixing that up with his record. Those are two different issues.

I don’t have a problem with anything he has said against the Fed Chair or Obama. It may be more blunt than some would like but still true. The MSM & the Admin have no problem with being blunt and slandering, so I appreciated it when SP took it to Obama and I appreciate Perry in doing so.

Just my opinion.

bluefox on August 31, 2011 at 12:47 PM

But back to the main point on Perry: I understand your concern but pandering is more easily spotted than you think. Voters easily identify and respect those who genuinely stand for something. Perry, I believe, is seen as genuine in his faith and not a panderer hence it becomes less of an issue than Obama who can’t decide whether to go to church or not.

TheRightMan on August 31, 2011 at 10:23 AM

This is a great point. And this goes back to the walk matching the talk.

bluefox on August 31, 2011 at 12:52 PM

It is not rocket science. He is exactly what we I want. Good record, a fighter and electable. All the others are one or more of the following:Rino,wuss,crazy or unelectable.Perry 2012.

Southernblogger on August 31, 2011 at 9:27 AM

Please don’t speak for me. I’m not at all enthused about Perry. And I don’t buy the unelectable meme about Sarah Palin. Considering some of the people who have won elections, I’m a firm believer that anything is possible.

All these self claiming conservatives who ‘beg’ Sarah not to run really confuse me. Why should my candidate stay out just to help yours in the primary, especially if mine has a better track record? You don’t see me begging your candidate to get out of the way. I prefer to point out their flaws and let people decide. I think they should be weeded out properly. I want as many good choices as I can get, and then I’ll decide which is the best of the best. Right now, I think Sarah is, and I don’t want to have to settle again. I’m sick of holding my nose even in primaries. Why not let them battle it out and if towards the end, it looks like they’re going to split the vote and leave it to some squish like Romney, then they can work it out and see who’s doing best and has the best shot at Obama? If they are as good as we seem to think, they’d do that, right? At least I feel confident that Sarah would set her ego aside and do what is best for the country, but I think she needs to see what happens and make an official go for it. Her chances look awfully good to me. More importantly, her values and leadership look to be the best of the best.

Run, Sarah. Run!!!!

pannw on August 31, 2011 at 12:59 PM

We need to ensure that the voters who are reachable by his message of states rights, tax, tort and entitlement reform, etc. are not alienated by other issues.

MJBrutus on August 31, 2011 at 10:44 AM

I understand your concerns completely since majoring in minors isn’t helpful. We know what the issues are that the Voters are going to be voting on. Jobs & the Economy are the top two. Any Candidate must have just several priorities. What Perry stressed on Hannity’s radio show yesterday, was Jobs/Economy/Obamacare. The other concerns & issues can be discussed later on. Anything more at this time will be confusing in my opinion. You attack your opponent on his weak points since they are the concern of the American People.

bluefox on August 31, 2011 at 1:03 PM

he debated in the last election, him, white and medina. most people seem to think medina cleaned his clock. maybe you could call Governor Medina’s office and see if they have a copy of the tape. oh, wait….

chasdal on August 31, 2011 at 11:19 AM

My understanding is he refused to debate the Democratic opponent in 2010.

whatcat on August 31, 2011 at 1:25 PM

IF Palin seriously considered running for POTUS herself, it was not prudent to endorse Perry’s last campaign.

If she planned to hold out as another VP candidate, that endorsement made more sense.

But Perry’s record baggage includes actively campaigning for HillaryCare, not simply being Al Gore’s TX campaign manager. So again, either Palin didn’t do her homework, or she aligns with that as well.

maverick muse on August 31, 2011 at 2:03 PM

I am beginning to wonder what people are waiting for. I mean come on, the top two people do not have 50% between them.

Terrye on August 31, 2011 at 2:43 PM

But Perry’s record baggage includes actively campaigning for HillaryCare, not simply being Al Gore’s TX campaign manager.

maverick muse on August 31, 2011 at 2:03 PM

Wrong. Read the letter and try again. I don’t seem to recall Perry doing a bus tour in support of HillaryCare. “Actively campaigning” is a bit much.

Didn’t Reagan support Democrats before he became a Republican? If you’re going back into the early-1990’s and late-1980’s as a reason to vote against Perry, then you are consciously disregarding anything thereafter. That’s being dishonest.

change is for suckers on August 31, 2011 at 2:47 PM

Reader’s digest version. We focus on jobs and the economy, we win. We pander to religious fanatics, we lose.

MJBrutus on August 31, 2011 at 9:13 AM

Which is exactly why no serious candidate will be pandering to the atheist contingent. They all know that the public doesn’t have your hostility to the Christian faith.

tom on August 31, 2011 at 3:25 PM

But Perry’s record baggage includes actively campaigning for HillaryCare…

maverick muse on August 31, 2011 at 2:03 PM

That’s a ridiculous statement.

slickwillie2001 on August 31, 2011 at 4:49 PM

So how about discussing the polls after Palin announces her run for POTUS?


Why wouldn’t we? In the meantime, we’ll continue to discuss them before she announces too.

Palin will likely get an 8-10 point bump post announcement.


No, she won’t.

xblade on August 31, 2011 at 5:48 PM