Perry up 20 in SC: PPP

posted at 2:45 pm on August 30, 2011 by Ed Morrissey

The entry of a Southern governor with enough credibility to matter has had the predictable effect on South Carolina primary voters in the latest PPP survey.  In June, Mitt Romney had a 15-point lead in their survey, but Rick Perry now leads by 20:

There might not be a state that betters symbolizes the fundamental shift that’s occurred in the Republican Presidential race over the last few months than South Carolina. When PPP last polled there in early June, Mitt Romney led everyone in the field by at least 15 points. But now with Rick Perry’s entry Romney has lost almost half of his support. That leaves Perry with a 20 point lead- he’s at 36% to 16% for Romney, 13% for Michele Bachmann, 9% for Herman Cain, 8% for Newt Gingrich, 5% for Ron Paul, 4% for Rick Santorum, and 2% for Jon Huntsman.

Voters on the far right side of the Republican spectrum have been dying for a candidate they can call their own and Perry is filling that void. With folks describing themselves as ‘very conservative,’ which is the largest segment of the GOP electorate in South Carolina, Perry’s at 44% to 14% for Bachmann, with Romney mired in single digits at 9%.

That furthest right group of voters has never been all that friendly to Romney though. What has to be a greater sign of concern for him is that with those labeling themselves as only ‘somewhat conservative’ he still trails Perry 37-19 with Bachmann at 11% and Cain at 10%. When Romney’s primary threat was Bachmann he was still winning this group of voters. But Perry seems to be filling a void for voters looking for someone more conservative than Romney and more credible than Bachmann and if he can sustain his lead with that segment of voters he’s going to be tough to topple.

Romney does continue to be the favorite of moderate Republicans, leading Perry 26-20. But since those folks only account for 16% of the overall GOP electorate having their support isn’t going to take Romney very far.

It’s not really that complicated.  Southern voters tend to trust Southern governors more.  Romney seemingly dodged a bullet when Mike Huckabee took a pass, as Huckabee competed strongly in South Carolina and finished second, well ahead of Mitt Romney who received a little more than half the votes Huckabee got.  (John McCain won the state and 18 delegates, while Huckabee got the other six.)  However, now that Perry has jumped into the race, Romney might have preferred that Huckabee stuck around.  Two Southern governors would have split that impulse in South Carolina and might have allowed Romney to win a key conservative state.

Of course, we have almost six months before South Carolina Republicans go to the primary polls.  Perry may not keep the surging lead he has won since his entry.  At the moment, Perry is introducing himself to primary voters in key states like South Carolina, Iowa, and New Hampshire.  Clearly voters are responding positively to the introduction, and Perry has a long record of success in running Texas as a big initial introduction, especially on jobs and economic policy.  Romney and the other candidates in the race have moved well beyond introductions and into policy, which Perry will have to do soon.  He may lose some momentum as his policy choices become clear, especially when Perry starts participating in the debates as he will on Labor Day.

If these numbers hold up — or even stay close to this trajectory — it will effectively close off any hope that the other candidates in the race now can make it anything more than a two-man contest.  Even if Michele Bachmann wins Iowa, the only other state in the early running where she could gain any traction would be South Carolina — but Perry is winning her natural voting base, along with a big chunk of Mitt Romney’s.  If Palin jumps into the race, she would need a surge larger than Perry’s in South Carolina, as she only gets 10% now — and she has a lower favorability rating than Perry (+26 to +40, respectively) and only 9% are unsure about her, as opposed to 20% for Perry.

A Perry win in South Carolina also ends any hope of a quick win for Romney.  And if Romney’s strategy is to wait for a Perry implosion, he may end up waiting for a very long time, as Perry has won many more campaigns than Romney has even attempted, and he’s lost fewer of them.

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FTW.

Beo on August 30, 2011 at 2:48 PM

Let’s see what happens in the debates.

Oil Can on August 30, 2011 at 2:49 PM

Game changer. Absolute game changer.

JohnGalt23 on August 30, 2011 at 2:50 PM

Here’s what’ll happen in SC:

Perry
Palin
Bachmann
Romney
Paul
Cain

SouthernGent on August 30, 2011 at 2:50 PM

From the first day he announced I shall continue:
It is Perry’s to lose…

right2bright on August 30, 2011 at 2:51 PM

Palin is imploding as her finger hovers over the launch button

windansea on August 30, 2011 at 2:51 PM

Holy $4!#

El_Terrible on August 30, 2011 at 2:51 PM

If Romney continues to collapse, Palin will have to get just so there’s a contest …

gh on August 30, 2011 at 2:51 PM

get in …

gh on August 30, 2011 at 2:52 PM

If Romney continues to collapse, Palin will have to get just so there’s a contest …

gh on August 30, 2011 at 2:51 PM

Romney was never going to win SC, he needs to win Florida or he may be toast.

windansea on August 30, 2011 at 2:54 PM

Even if Michele Bachmann wins Iowa

She won the Ames poll and that’s all she’s going to win. I don’t see her making it to South Carolina.

Knucklehead on August 30, 2011 at 2:54 PM

Cue the Perry bashers, followed closely by his supporters, who will whine about getting the same treatment the Palin supporters have gotten for the last several months.

This site has become a three ring circus!

At this point I will vote for any candidate who is not Ron Paul, but I prefer Palin or Perry, if she doesn’t run….

JannyMae on August 30, 2011 at 2:56 PM

Mitt Romney should drop the “career politician” line and just talk himself up…

ninjapirate on August 30, 2011 at 2:56 PM

Palin’s decision…
Get in and get beat, or become a power broker…

right2bright on August 30, 2011 at 2:59 PM

If Perry manages to win Iowa, it’s over. Mittens has to spend money there now and try to siphon off enough votes to let Bachmann emerge victorious.

Doughboy on August 30, 2011 at 3:00 PM

There’s more to this than the fact that Perry is a Southern governor. Yes, South Carolinians may be more comfortable with a Southern governor, but if Perry had Romney’s record, he would not be in the lead.

Romney’s problem is Romney.

flyfisher on August 30, 2011 at 3:00 PM

Palin is imploding as her finger hovers over the launch button

windansea on August 30, 2011 at 2:51 PM

No, just part of her grand strategy…or something.

changer1701 on August 30, 2011 at 3:02 PM

A wild Palinista enters the debate:

The three things that make this poll irrelevant and meaningless:

1. Herpa
2. Derpa
3. Herpa Derpa

-MyLife4Palin

strictnein on August 30, 2011 at 3:02 PM

Mitt Romney should drop the “career politician” line and just talk himself up…

ninjapirate on August 30, 2011 at 2:56 PM

Talk himself up, hammer on the precedent

phreshone on August 30, 2011 at 3:02 PM

Palin is imploding as her finger hovers over the launch button

windansea on August 30, 2011 at 2:51 PM

Indecision is a killer.

a capella on August 30, 2011 at 3:03 PM

It’s not really that complicated. Southern voters tend to trust Southern governors more.

That may be true, but I’ll bet a coonskin hat that its more than that. They don’t trust the RINO slickster much more than they trust Obama.They know that a purdy dog with no scars won’t tree a coon, nevermind out run him.

Rahm-ney’s early numbers merely represented the first opposition to Obama. A dung camel would have held those numbers.
Wait until Sarah gets in the race – alphabet soup!

Don L on August 30, 2011 at 3:04 PM

1. Head-to-heads.

If Rick Perry were matched straight up against Mitt Romney, the Texas gov would win by 31%. That’s impressive. More impressive? Even with a bunch of tea party candidates (e.g. Cain, Palin, Bachmann, Paul) in the mix, Perry holds a 23% lead over Romney.

Meanwhile, Romney would edge Bachmann by 5% in a head-to-head, which means this isn’t just an anyone-but-Romney phenomenon. Perry performs 36% better against Romney in a head-to-head than Bachmann.

For his part, Perry also crushes Bachmann by 43%, which shows, yet again, that Bachmann’s best day (straw poll in Iowa) was probably her worst (Perry officially gets in).

4. Palin’s Fade. Not only has she dropped from 16% to 10%, but there’s also a more troubling phenomenon at work.

Perry is killing her in favorability numbers. That’s always been Palin’s strong suit. Republican voters have always liked her, even though many haven’t wanted to vote for her. But check it out: her unfavorables are twice as big as Perry’s, and Perry’s favorables run higher than hers, even though she has better name ID.

If Palin runs, she’ll absolutely need South Carolina, and right now Perry has a Texas-sized lead.

http://gop12.thehill.com/

windansea on August 30, 2011 at 3:05 PM

Get in on America’s red-hot political obsession…

John Huntsman!!!!

Cicero43 on August 30, 2011 at 3:06 PM

Romney’s problem is Romney.
flyfisher on August 30, 2011 at 3:00 PM

Winner of the day.

antisocial on August 30, 2011 at 3:06 PM

I don’t trust Hot Air comments. They’re kind of one notch up from YouTube comments. I’m still betting on Romney and a Perry implosion.

ParisParamus on August 30, 2011 at 3:09 PM

YAY!!!! Anything that gets Romney OUT makes me smile!

bridgetown on August 30, 2011 at 3:10 PM

Debate time will be FUN

cmsinaz on August 30, 2011 at 3:10 PM

Get in on America’s red-hot political obsession…

John Huntsman Thaddeus Cotter!!!!

Cicero43 on August 30, 2011 at 3:06 PM

PatriotRider on August 30, 2011 at 3:10 PM

I don’t trust Hot Air comments. They’re kind of one notch up from YouTube comments. I’m still betting on Romney and a Perry implosion.

ParisParamus on August 30, 2011 at 3:09 PM

LOL….Do you really believe that???

If I thought that….I’d Never read Hot Air comments.

Come On!

bridgetown on August 30, 2011 at 3:11 PM

PS: interesting how PPP is The Democrat Crap unless their poll supports you.

ParisParamus on August 30, 2011 at 3:11 PM

I’m shocked that South Carolina conservatives don’t support an abortion flip-flopping, AGW believing, homosexual pandering, government mandate foisting, entitled elitist liberal stooge with no military service. Shocked!

Stayright on August 30, 2011 at 3:12 PM

Get in on America’s red-hot political obsession…

John Huntsman!!!!

Cicero43 on August 30, 2011 at 3:06 PM

I WANT A SWIG OF WHATEVER HE’S DRINKING!!!!!!!

SDarchitect on August 30, 2011 at 3:12 PM

Perry is killing her in favorability numbers. That’s always been Palin’s strong suit. Republican voters have always liked her, even though many haven’t wanted to vote for her. But check it out: her unfavorables are twice as big as Perry’s, and Perry’s favorables run higher than hers, even though she has better name ID.

If Palin runs, she’ll absolutely need South Carolina, and right now Perry has a Texas-sized lead.

http://gop12.thehill.com/

windansea on August 30, 2011 at 3:05 PM

Her entry in the race would rehabilitate those favorability numbers pretty quickly, but I still think her overall weak numbers with independents and moderate Republicans will be a problem. Whether we like it or not, electability is very important to GOP voters(which is why a RINO like Mittens led in the polls for so long) and Perry is perceived to have it whereas Palin doesn’t.

I still maintain that her best play at this point is to endorse Perry, try to finagle a cabinet post(which should be rather easy), and build on that. I think with the current makeup of the field, she seriously risks flaming out in the early primary states and diminishing her power within the party.

Doughboy on August 30, 2011 at 3:13 PM

Cudas announcment better be bloody huge to overpower the debates methinks….

cmsinaz on August 30, 2011 at 3:13 PM

It’s not really that complicated. Southern voters tend to trust Southern governors more.

It wasn’t really that complicated. Minnesota bloggers tended to trust former Minnesota governors more.

Stayright on August 30, 2011 at 3:14 PM

Poor thad….good guy who should just get out now

cmsinaz on August 30, 2011 at 3:15 PM

Romney was never going to win SC, he needs to win Florida or he may be toast.

windansea on August 30, 2011 at 2:54 PM

I saw a poll a couple of days ago and Perry was not only running strong in most age groups, but ahead in some.

Will post the poll link when I get back.(have errands to run)

Also Gov. Perry is supposed to be on Hannity’s radio show. Not sure of the time, since he was supposed to have been on Monday, but was changed to today. Maybe 4PM?

bluefox on August 30, 2011 at 3:15 PM

I’m shocked that South Carolina conservatives don’t support an abortion flip-flopping, AGW believing, homosexual pandering, government mandate foisting, entitled elitist liberal stooge with no military service. Shocked!

Stayright on August 30, 2011 at 3:12 PM

This is the kind of moronic comment that has brought me to stop reading HotAir comments. Yes, you are free to keep writing stuff like that. Whatever.

ParisParamus on August 30, 2011 at 3:15 PM

And if Romney’s strategy is to wait for a Perry implosion, he may end up waiting for a very long time, as Perry has won many more campaigns than Romney has even attempted, and he’s lost fewer of them.

This sentence explains why Perry is leading with such huge margins… he is beating Romney on two issues: conservative creds. and electability.

Romney’s argument used against Palin and Bachmann was that he was the most electable in the general – a dubious argument, if you ask me – but now that is fading with each passing day matched against a three-term Governor of the second largest state.

I would add that Perry is also the most likely to consolidate “Reagan Democrats” behind him who have long given up on Obama.

TheRightMan on August 30, 2011 at 3:16 PM

This is the kind of moronic comment that has brought me to stop reading HotAir comments. Yes, you are free to keep writing stuff like that. Whatever.

ParisParamus on August 30, 2011 at 3:15 PM

No one is forcing you to read them.

Knucklehead on August 30, 2011 at 3:19 PM

The Paul campaign may be in some serious FEC trouble, working with “Paid Russian Agents” to promote his campaign illegally

http://www.canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/39773

Paul gave Kokesh, 9/11 Truther nut, $3k when he ran for congress last year, who admits he’s a “Paid Russian Agent”

Hey Fox News, ^ is some excellent “First Tier” coverage to give the Congressman like you and the MSM would do if it were a normal Candidate.

Youtube is littered with Russia Today tv segments featuring Paul and his inner circle(Lew Rockwell and company) for the last 5 plus yrs or so.

jp on August 30, 2011 at 3:20 PM

New Gallup numbers out today:

Perry – 25
Romney – 14
Paul & Palin – tied at 11
Giuliani – 9
Bachmann – 7
Cain – 4
Gingrich & Santorum – tied at 3
Huntsman – 1

Perry is now recognized by 75% and has a positive intensity score of 25 – second only to Cain’s 27 (Giuliani 17, Palin 16, Bachmann 13, Romney 11)

Amazingly, Perry’s unfavorables are only 12 while his favorables are at 71%.

Maybe a Perry/Giuliani ticket would win the election?

Greyledge Gal on August 30, 2011 at 3:21 PM

the key with Perry is simple: “Can he beat Obama?”

We should nominate the most conservative candidate, who can win. Not the most conservative candidate that will lose.

jp on August 30, 2011 at 3:21 PM

I would add that Perry is also the most likely to consolidate “Reagan Democrats” behind him who have long given up on Obama.

My guess is that there are no longer any “Reagan Democrats.” By now they are either Republicans, independents, or dead.

ParisParamus on August 30, 2011 at 3:22 PM

I’m still betting on Romney and a Perry implosion.

ParisParamus on August 30, 2011 at 3:09 PM

I worry that Rick will go jogging in New Hampshire and somebody’s Akita will come out to sniff Rick’s dog…

cartooner on August 30, 2011 at 3:22 PM

Link to new Gallup GOP numbers

Greyledge Gal on August 30, 2011 at 3:22 PM

Maybe a Perry/Giuliani ticket would win the election?

Greyledge Gal on August 30, 2011 at 3:21 PM

Unless Rudy can deliver NY’s electoral votes, there’s no reason to put him on the ticket. Make him AG. I still say Paul Ryan is the best choice for VP.

Doughboy on August 30, 2011 at 3:23 PM

I still maintain that her best play at this point is to endorse Perry, try to finagle a cabinet post(which should be rather easy), and build on that. I think with the current makeup of the field, she seriously risks flaming out in the early primary states and diminishing her power within the party.

Doughboy on August 30, 2011 at 3:13 PM

Yep. Best to build on what she has rather than corkscrew into the mountainside.

a capella on August 30, 2011 at 3:23 PM

It wasn’t really that complicated. Minnesota bloggers tended to trust former Minnesota governors more.

Stayright on August 30, 2011 at 3:14 PM

OoooH!

cartooner on August 30, 2011 at 3:23 PM

Stayright on August 30, 2011 at 3:12 PM
This is the kind of moronic comment that has brought me to stop reading HotAir comments. Yes, you are free to keep writing stuff like that. Whatever.

ParisParamus on August 30, 2011 at 3:15 PM

What part of what I said was untrue? You don’t like the truth? Sorry, I’m not a touchy feely politically correct liberal. Many of us have said for years that Romney could never win in the South. Well Friend, we weren’t just whistling Dixie.

MITT ROMNEY CANNOT WIN IN THE SOUTH, but it’s not because of Rick Perry. It’s because of the man in the mirror.

Stayright on August 30, 2011 at 3:23 PM

Amazingly, Perry’s unfavorables are only 12 while his favorables are at 71%.

Which pretty much means it’s too early to assess Perry’s popularilty. He’s still pretty much a stand-in for Mr. I’m Not Romney, or Mr. Generic Republican. It’s still very very early, both in the campaign, and in Perry’s coming out.

ParisParamus on August 30, 2011 at 3:24 PM

I worry that Rick will go jogging in New Hampshire and somebody’s Akita will come out to sniff Rick’s dog…

cartooner on August 30, 2011 at 3:22 PM

Feature, not a bug.

a capella on August 30, 2011 at 3:25 PM

My guess is that there are no longer any “Reagan Democrats.” By now they are either Republicans, independents, or dead.

ParisParamus on August 30, 2011 at 3:22 PM

Based on that, my guess is that you don’t live in the South. The rural South is still full of them.

flyfisher on August 30, 2011 at 3:25 PM

Doughboy on August 30, 2011 at 3:13 PM

As a Palin supporter, I concur. I have repeatedly said that I do NOT believe Palin will be running. Perry’s entry into the race confirmed it for me.

I have also come to believe that the deliberate delay by Palin might also be to give Perry enough of a “honeymoon” period from attacks. If you think the attacks on Perry has been ugly, you ain’t seen nothing yet – just wait till the media/Dems/RINOs find out that the field is settled and Palin is not running. It is going to get reeeeaallyy ugly!

At this stage, I hope Palin sees in Perry the conservative who would fight for everything she wants to fight for and one that can beat Obama easily. If she enters the fray, I have to agree that only Romney will stand to benefit.

TheRightMan on August 30, 2011 at 3:26 PM

Palin’s time has passed – she’s toast if she gets in now. If you want 4 more years of Obama, keep carrying her water. Perry or Romney gives us our best chances to defeat the Emperor, period. To pretend otherwise at this point is tilting at windmills, or as Ron Paul says, “tilting at me”…

Lando Jones on August 30, 2011 at 3:26 PM

This is the kind of moronic informed comment that has brought me to stop reading HotAir comments. Yes, you are free to keep writing stuff like that. Whatever.

ParisParamus on August 30, 2011 at 3:15 PM

Fixed it for you. Of course we can write whatever we want to. You have a problem with that?

antisocial on August 30, 2011 at 3:26 PM

This is the kind of moronic comment that has brought me to stop reading HotAir comments. Yes, you are free to keep writing stuff like that. Whatever.

ParisParamus on August 30, 2011 at 3:15 PM

So that’s why you’re reading and responding to comments on HotAir?

/facepalm

strictnein on August 30, 2011 at 3:29 PM

This is the kind of moronic comment that has brought me to stop reading HotAir comments. Yes, you are free to keep writing stuff like that. Whatever.

ParisParamus on August 30, 2011 at 3:15 PM

And yet…here you are.

You-Eh-Vee on August 30, 2011 at 3:30 PM

No, it’s why from time to time, I point out how high school-like the comments here have become. Whatever. Democrats have their sophomores, and so do Republicans. It’s just how it is.

ParisParamus on August 30, 2011 at 3:31 PM

(But I am looking forward to Palin zealots getting into flame wars with Perry Zealots here–poetic justice.)

ParisParamus on August 30, 2011 at 3:32 PM

I love it when people who do not understand South Carolina post all their well-thought-out bullcrap “analysis” of our politics.

Perry is a natural fit here, true, but this poll is meaningless as are most this far in advance. South Carolina doesn’t go for “Southern Governors” in any statistically significant way. Last cycle McCain won. Before him, Dubya was a Southern Governor, but neither Dole nor Bush the Elder were.

The fact is South Carolina goes with the winner. We have voted for the nominee in every single Republican primary since we started holding them.

It’s not rocket science, folks. You don’t need some liberal pollster to figure it out for you. Whoever is “the guy” after New Hampshire – not necessarily the winner of NH – will win here. If Perry can do it, he’ll win here, but it is not at all impossible or even unlikely that Romney could be the guy.

SC Republicans want ONE THING and ONE THING ONLY from our nominee: the ability to beat Obama. They can talk about the evangelicals upstate and the libertarians in the Lowcountry and the business people all around, but the bottom line for all of them is the same.

Adjoran on August 30, 2011 at 3:33 PM

Unless Rudy can deliver NY’s electoral votes, there’s no reason to put him on the ticket. Make him AG.

Doughboy on August 30, 2011 at 3:23 PM

Utter nonsense. He’s a gun grabber.

fossten on August 30, 2011 at 3:34 PM

Unless Rudy can deliver NY’s electoral votes, there’s no reason to put him on the ticket. Make him AG. I still say Paul Ryan is the best choice for VP.

Doughboy on August 30, 2011 at 3:23 PM

I like Ryan but I think his best place now is in the House to continue to champion his plan.

Giuliani would balance Perry and make independents and many unhappy democrats feel more secure in voting for a Perry presidency.

Even better, Giuliani will be 68 next year — too old to run for President again if there is a Republican elected next year — so no worry about him following up with a more RINO presidency 8 years later.

Third, I bet Rudy could deliver NY’s votes, especially in the current climate of unhappiness and he is still beloved for much of America for his wonderful presence during the 9/11 attacks.

Greyledge Gal on August 30, 2011 at 3:34 PM

I’m shocked that South Carolina conservatives don’t support an abortion flip-flopping, AGW believing, homosexual pandering, government mandate foisting, entitled elitist liberal stooge with no military service. Shocked!
Stayright on August 30, 2011 at 3:12 PM

This is the kind of moronic comment that has brought me to stop reading HotAir comments. Yes, you are free to keep writing stuff like that. Whatever.

ParisParamus on August 30, 2011 at 3:15 PM

ParisParamus, exactly what did you object to? Was it the way he said it or what he said? That may seem like strong language to you, but it was an accurate summation of the very real problem Romney has as a candidate. Stayright didn’t even mention Mormonism.

Romney is perhaps the least authentic man we’ve had run for president on our side of the aisle (Obama, Kerry, T. Kennedy, and Edwards far outpace him on their side) in recent decades. The South Carolina GOP isn’t going to be snookered by him.

flyfisher on August 30, 2011 at 3:38 PM

ParisParamus on August 30, 2011 at 3:31 PM

I pray that I may look upon your beautiful visage when you come down to Earth and grace us with your glorious presence, oh wise one.

Get over yourself. Your contribution so far has basically been “Yer all soooo stoopid! Dur dur dur!” Profound stuff coming from one of our self proclaimed betters.

strictnein on August 30, 2011 at 3:40 PM

My guess is that there are no longer any “Reagan Democrats.” By now they are either Republicans, independents, or dead.

ParisParamus on August 30, 2011 at 3:22 PM

Based on that, my guess is that you don’t live in the South. The rural South is still full of them.

flyfisher on August 30, 2011 at 3:25 PM

Don’t live in coal/farm country either, stretching from PA to WV and western Virginia. Plenty of Reagan Dems here still — we know loads of them. Some didn’t vote Obama last time but I don’t know any who will even defend him now. Too many regulations put on agriculture and mining is killing them.

Greyledge Gal on August 30, 2011 at 3:41 PM

Palin’s time hasn’t passed, but it will, soon. Which is probably the most compelling reason for her to run. Actually, I don’t think she has a chance, but if she runs, and loses (in the primary), she will increase her chance of being named to the winner’s cabinet (Secretary of Enterior, a consolidated Enterior+Interior Department, is where she should be. And from there, Palin can credibly run for President in 2020.

ParisParamus on August 30, 2011 at 3:42 PM

My guess is that there are no longer any “Reagan Democrats.” By now they are either Republicans, independents, or dead.

ParisParamus on August 30, 2011 at 3:22 PM

Should we trust your comment? lol

tinkerthinker on August 30, 2011 at 3:44 PM

Greyledge Gal on August 30, 2011 at 3:41 PM, my quibble with the term Reagan Democrats is simply, mostly the passage of time. But wasn’t the term primarily attached to northern working class/union folk who voted for Reagan? Oh well, it’s not important. See you all around Twitter.

ParisParamus on August 30, 2011 at 3:44 PM

Secretary of Enterior, a consolidated Enterior+Interior Department, is where she should be. And from there, Palin can credibly run for President in 2020.

ParisParamus on August 30, 2011 at 3:42 PM

I assume you mean Energy + Interior?

I don’t think she needs to run to get that position in a Republican administration. She already has the chops and experience.

Greyledge Gal on August 30, 2011 at 3:46 PM

Palin’s decision…
Get in and get beat, or become a power broker…

right2bright

Once again, I predict Palin will endorse Perry within weeks – not months.

honsy on August 30, 2011 at 3:46 PM

Adjoran on August 30, 2011 at 3:33 PM

Nice post! “Southern voters tend to trust Southern governors” is lazy analysis at best.

flyfisher on August 30, 2011 at 3:47 PM

This is the kind of moronic comment that has brought me to stop reading HotAir comments. Yes, you are free to keep writing stuff like that. Whatever.

ParisParamus on August 30, 2011 at 3:15 PM

Interesting, if he doesn’t read HotAir comments, then just how did he…oh, never mind.

carbon_footprint on August 30, 2011 at 3:54 PM

See you all around Twitter.

ParisParamus on August 30, 2011 at 3:44 PM

A twitterfly?

tinkerthinker on August 30, 2011 at 3:59 PM

Her entry in the race would rehabilitate those favorability numbers pretty quickly, but I still think her overall weak numbers with independents and moderate Republicans will be a problem. Whether we like it or not, electability is very important to GOP voters(which is why a RINO like Mittens led in the polls for so long) and Perry is perceived to have it whereas Palin doesn’t.

I still maintain that her best play at this point is to endorse Perry, try to finagle a cabinet post(which should be rather easy), and build on that. I think with the current makeup of the field, she seriously risks flaming out in the early primary states and diminishing her power within the party.

Doughboy on August 30, 2011 at 3:13 PM

Doughboy nailed it. Sarah Palin is probably watching Perry surging in red-state polls, even with fellow Tea Party woman Michele Bachmann in the mix, and realizing that there is really no place for her in the Presidential race. Before Perry jumped into the race, she was a conservative woman who had the advantage over Bachmann of having been Governor instead of “only” in the House of Representatives, but Perry is also a Governor of a much more populous state, with much more experience. Although Palin has been the darling of conservatives, she has consistently had trouble with Independent voters, and probably many conservative primary voters are afraid of nominating a loser. Palin would do much better to endorse Perry, campaign for him, and possibly ask for a Cabinet position (Interior or Energy) where her expertise would be well appreciated.

With a lead like this in SC, Perry probably has Dixie locked up. Romney’s only chance would be to win FL, but even that could be problematic if Bachmann drops out before the Florida primary. If he loses FL, Romney might ask Perry for an appointment as Treasury Secretary…

Steve Z on August 30, 2011 at 4:10 PM

This is the poll I saw the other day. There may be a newer one, but haven’t had time to check.

FLORIDA 2012 GENERAL ELECTION SURVEY RELEASE

http://www.magellanstrategies.com/web/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/Magellan-Florida-2012-General-Election-Survey-Release-0823111.pdf

bluefox on August 30, 2011 at 4:28 PM

“Perry has won many more campaigns than Romney has even attempted, and he’s lost fewer of them.”

No, actually Gov. Perry has never lost a political race

E9RET on August 30, 2011 at 4:30 PM

SouthernGent on August 30, 2011 at 2:50 PM

Here is a poll a little more positive:-)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2011/08/30/poll_perry_has_commanding_lead_in_south_carolina.html

bluefox on August 30, 2011 at 4:36 PM

Here’s what’ll happen in SC:

Perry
Palin
Bachmann
Romney
Paul
Cain

SouthernGent on August 30, 2011 at 2:50 PM

Bachmann and Cain will be gone by then.

Missy on August 30, 2011 at 4:43 PM

I may be wrong but it looks like Mr. Perry has a spending problem.

http://www.politifact.com/texas/statements/2010/mar/04/bill-white/white-says-texas-debt-has-doubled-under-perry/

KBird on August 30, 2011 at 4:45 PM

SC Republicans want ONE THING and ONE THING ONLY from our nominee: the ability to beat Obama.

Ding, ding, ding, ding.
There it is!

humdinger on August 30, 2011 at 4:47 PM

This is the kind of moronic comment that has brought me to stop reading HotAir comments. Yes, you are free to keep writing stuff like that. Whatever.

ParisParamus on August 30, 2011 at 3:15 PM

No, it’s why from time to time, I point out how high school-like the comments here have become. Whatever. Democrats have their sophomores, and so do Republicans. It’s just how it is.

ParisParamus on August 30, 2011 at 3:31 PM

You complain about “how high school-like the comments here have become,” and yet you use the term “whatever” not once but twice.

roflol

GrannyDee on August 30, 2011 at 4:52 PM

This is the kind of moronic comment that has brought me to stop reading HotAir comments. Yes, you are free to keep writing stuff like that. Whatever.

ParisParamus on August 30, 2011 at 3:15 PM

But yet, here you are. LOL Stick around, you may learn something:-)

bluefox on August 30, 2011 at 4:54 PM

I believe Palin could still get in and win.

But, she would have to win the debates and show that she was fluent on all policy questions. If she definitively shows that she is knowledgeable and viable, people will re-flock to her.

mockmook on August 30, 2011 at 4:56 PM

I would add that Perry is also the most likely to consolidate “Reagan Democrats” behind him who have long given up on Obama.

TheRightMan on August 30, 2011 at 3:16 PM

It appears that Perry has across the board support in various age groups, which would probably include the RD. Although, not sure who they are anymore:-)

bluefox on August 30, 2011 at 4:56 PM

I still say Paul Ryan is the best choice for VP.

Doughboy on August 30, 2011 at 3:23 PM

Don’t you think Ryan is needed where he is? He’s the only one that appears to have the smarts on this BBA and other budget related proposals? If we win the W.H. we’ll need him where he is. Just my opinion.

bluefox on August 30, 2011 at 5:01 PM

Florida will have their Straw Poll on Sept 24, 2011

Romney & Bachmann have informed the GOP that they will not attend.
Texas Gov. Rick Perry had not informed the party as of Tuesday of his decision, although officials expected that he would agree to compete.

Those that will are listed & other info here:

http://www.rollcall.com/news/florida_straw_poll_may_include_contenders_without_their_say_so-208292-1.html

bluefox on August 30, 2011 at 5:39 PM

I can see everybody is closing their eyes to big government Perry.

Go ahead and don’t vet him. The MSM and Obama with vet him with 1 billion dollars.

After Obama and the MSM get done with pay to play, amnesty, open borders, accounting debt tricks just like the WH, I could go on and on.

Perry has been the governor of Texas for 10 years for a reason.

oldyeller on August 30, 2011 at 5:58 PM

After Obama and the MSM get done with pay to play, amnesty, open borders, accounting debt tricks just like the WH, I could go on and on.

Perry has been the governor of Texas for 10 years for a reason.

oldyeller on August 30, 2011 at 5:58 PM

You said it! Perry has pulled one over on the people of the state of Texas. Keep up the Lords work!

cozmo on August 30, 2011 at 6:06 PM

A chipped Beef on toast sandwich could win the nomination and I would vote for it in the general.

ABO, that is what it all comes down to. Perry or Palin, I’m okay with either, the rest are NRFPT.

PakviRoti on August 30, 2011 at 7:20 PM