Obama approval in Gallup weekly average still at term-low 40%

posted at 10:45 am on August 30, 2011 by Ed Morrissey

Barack Obama’s numbers didn’t drop in the latest Gallup weekly analysis of his daily tracking poll numbers, but they haven’t dropped below the 40% level — yet.  The data set includes Sunday, when Obama’s approval in the daily poll dropped to 38%, the lowest level of his presidency, which was enough to tie the previous week’s results:

President Barack Obama’s job approval rating averaged 40% last week, tying his record-low 40% ratings for the two prior weeks that started on Aug. 8.

The Aug. 22-28 weekly average of Gallup Daily tracking includes Obama’s worst three-day average approval rating thus far in his presidency: 38% approval and 55% disapproval from Aug. 25-27. Gallup suspended Daily tracking on Aug. 28 because of the hurricane conditions affecting much of the East Coast.

I wondered about that.  The numbers didn’t move at all yesterday, and neither did the change indicators for the approval/disapproval results.  I assumed that they might have had difficulty compiling the results because of the storm, but halting the survey makes sense under those conditions.  Presumably they started again yesterday, and at 1 ET will have a new three-day rolling average.

Obama faces more problems in the demographics.  Gallup compares the numbers from the beginning of summer, when Obama was still coming off of the bump he received from the mission that killed Osama bin Laden, and the change has been precipitous.  He’s lost 10 points overall on job approval, twelve points with Hispanic voters, sixteen points with post-graduate college-educated voters, sixteen points among the highest income earners, and twelve points among self-described moderates.  It’s a summer-long meltdown.

From last week, the declines have been smaller but intriguing.  Despite his Midwestern jobs bus tour, Obama lost three points in the region.  His best regional approval comes from the East, but it’s only 43%, and he’s down to 35% in the South.  Only 46% of 18-29YO voters approve of his job performance — and that’s his best age demographic, down three points from the previous week.  Among high-voting-rate seniors, Obama has fallen to 35% approval, although that’s slightly up from the previous two weeks.

If these numbers don’t improve significantly, Obama is looking a Carter-like wipeout in 2012.  The question isn’t whether Obama can win; it’s whether Democrats in down-ticket races can avoid getting buried in the landslide, especially in US Senate races.

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

Contessa Brewer wants to know if Gallup has a degree in statistics….

BacaDog on August 30, 2011 at 10:49 AM

The question isn’t whether Obama can win; it’s whether Democrats in down-ticket races can avoid getting buried in the landslide, especially in US Senate races.

He can still win. Anything can happen between now and then. However, in the meantime, I am going to enjoy every minute of the infighting among Dems for the scarce funds they are going to need every penny of to defend what were once considered safe seats.

Missy on August 30, 2011 at 10:51 AM

All of this changes when people are presented with a choice. What were Bush’s numbers in 2004? Then the dems mercifully nominated Kerry and Bush pulled out a win. Who we nominate is a huge factor.

Dash on August 30, 2011 at 10:51 AM

Obviously he needs to go out and give some more speeches. In his bus. From Canada.

Sarjex on August 30, 2011 at 10:53 AM

Who we nominate is a huge factor.

Fred!

BacaDog on August 30, 2011 at 10:54 AM

All of this changes when people are presented with a choice. What were Bush’s numbers in 2004? Then the dems mercifully nominated Kerry and Bush pulled out a win. Who we nominate is a huge factor.

Dash on August 30, 2011 at 10:51 AM

But don’t forget that the Democrat Media almost succeeded in getting their Democrat “ticket” elected in 2004. They came within a single state of doing so.

Del Dolemonte on August 30, 2011 at 10:55 AM

Barry is stuck at 35% among Independents…

and for the education cross-tab, he is below 40% for all people except for those with postgraduates – 46%

phreshone on August 30, 2011 at 10:58 AM

Blacks, liberals, and Democrats only groups with majority approval.

See no evil.
Hear no evil.
Speak no evil.

Four more years!

VibrioCocci on August 30, 2011 at 11:03 AM

Despite his Midwestern jobs bus tour

It turns out, he flew the bus from town to town. Really.

faraway on August 30, 2011 at 11:04 AM

Voter ID issues will have a strong impact on the election.

a capella on August 30, 2011 at 11:04 AM

I wonder if Matt Lauer asks him why he’s so controversial in their next lovefest disguised as an interview.

gsherin on August 30, 2011 at 11:05 AM

All of this changes when people are presented with a choice. What were Bush’s numbers in 2004? Then the dems mercifully nominated Kerry and Bush pulled out a win. Who we nominate is a huge factor.

Dash on August 30, 2011 at 10:51 AM

No president running for reelection has ever been underwater like this. Bush in 2003 (2011 is like 2003 in terms of lead time) was well above water in approval ratings even in an ABC poll. Obama is drowning like no sitting president ever has drowned. Even Carter polled much better then Obama is when comparing head to head polling. Obama is lower than whale sh!t right now.

NotCoach on August 30, 2011 at 11:05 AM

Thats gonna be some outline now after labor day…..

Heh

That race card is going to played up bigtime….get ready folks

cmsinaz on August 30, 2011 at 11:06 AM

If Obama doesn’t use an EO to stop the oncoming train wreck from the EPA….I think it could be far worse than Carter.

Even those hard core liberals aren’t going to like cold showers, and no lights, or a way to cook their meals.

capejasmine on August 30, 2011 at 11:06 AM

Even Carter polled much better then Obama is when comparing head to head polling. Obama is lower than whale sh!t right now.

NotCoach on August 30, 2011 at 11:05 AM

Obama got his wish – a historic Presidency!!!

faraway on August 30, 2011 at 11:07 AM

So true a capella…..we will bloody outcries from the lsm and the left when he loses

cmsinaz on August 30, 2011 at 11:07 AM

If these numbers don’t improve significantly, Obama is looking a Carter-like wipeout in 2012. The question isn’t whether Obama can win; it’s whether Democrats in down-ticket races can avoid getting buried in the landslide, especially in US Senate races.

Low job approval for Obama isn’t enough. We can’t beat something with nothing, and for now, “Generic Republican” polls better against Obama than any named Republican. Obama could still win if there’s a long feud between Tea Partiers and the “Establishment”, or Republican candidates bash each other so much that the eventual nominee is damaged goods, and an easy target for the MSM in the general election.

It’s important to nominate a candidate who can unite the Tea Party with the “Reagan Democrats” (who might be Independents by now), and for all Republican candidates to concentrate their attacks on Obama, not on each other.

Steve Z on August 30, 2011 at 11:08 AM

Just the teeniest whiff of good economic news and Obamsa’s ratings will shoot up 10+% (mainly from “still wanta believe in Obama”/I am not a racist therefore I will vote for the black(white) man groups).

These low numbers are not low enough and it is way too early.

albill on August 30, 2011 at 11:13 AM

It’s probably a great consolation to him that 70% of American Muslims support him.

Drained Brain on August 30, 2011 at 11:14 AM

Steve Z on August 30, 2011 at 11:08 AM

Not quite. Look at this Gallup poll.

Over 14 months away from the election Obama should be creaming everyone in head to head polling. Being a sitting president carries a lot of cache. But this imbecile has pissed it all away long before the election.

NotCoach on August 30, 2011 at 11:14 AM

Blacks, liberals, and Democrats only groups with majority approval.

Ok they support, back, contribute, and would vote for ANYTHING Obama wants, and they are the only groups with majority approval? What the hell?????????

capejasmine on August 30, 2011 at 11:15 AM

After the Jobs Speech, it should go down another 3 points…

PatriotRider on August 30, 2011 at 11:15 AM

Steve Z on August 30, 2011 at 11:08 AM

Although the underlining objection is to remove Obama from office…the real objective is to get the economy going and growing.
We must come together, and bring the independents along with us, when we have finally chosen a candidate.
That candidate won’t be the “perfect” conservative, or Tea Partier, but must be one that has the strong conviction of those doctrines, but still appeal to the independents.
Next time, we can move the “poles” further to the right…

right2bright on August 30, 2011 at 11:15 AM

If these numbers don’t improve significantly, Obama is looking a Carter-like wipeout in 2012. The question isn’t whether Obama can win; it’s whether Democrats in down-ticket races can avoid getting buried in the landslide, especially in US Senate races.

The question is really can the MSM save Obama because Obama can’t save Obama.

unseen on August 30, 2011 at 11:16 AM

Blacks, liberals, Democrats… the only ones hurt by a reduction in government…

PatriotRider on August 30, 2011 at 11:16 AM

Just the teeniest whiff of good economic news and Obamsa’s ratings will shoot up 10+% (mainly from “still wanta believe in Obama”/I am not a racist therefore I will vote for the black(white) man groups).

That’s my worry, too. But I think he has permanently lost independents.

The swing state analysis is where it really counts, anyway. Watch the polling there and see how the GOP candidates stack up against him.

Missy on August 30, 2011 at 11:16 AM

That race card is going to played up bigtime….get ready folks

cmsinaz on August 30, 2011 at 11:06 AM

“Word! If brudda obama was 100% black and down for the cause and stop lettin whitey in the congress drag us down an tell those damn racist tea partiers to go straight to hell we would be all good now. He gots to show his street cred and get all ghetto on these whitey greedy folks that wants to keep there money. I hates the white half of this mofo.”

You mean like that?

VegasRick on August 30, 2011 at 11:18 AM

right2bright on August 30, 2011 at 11:15 AM

Sorry with these numbers the concept of electability goes out the window. We need to get the best caniddate we have. The one with a proven track record of reform and job creation. We have a golden oppurtunity to change the course of DC a once in a life time oppurtunity to get not only slow but stop the run away spending and clean up DC.

unseen on August 30, 2011 at 11:18 AM

If these numbers don’t improve significantly, Obama is looking a Carter-like wipeout in 2012. The question isn’t whether Obama can win; it’s whether Democrats in down-ticket races can avoid getting buried in the landslide, especially in US Senate races.

That’s IF obama allows the election to take place

ConservativePartyNow on August 30, 2011 at 11:19 AM

Contessa Brewer wants to know if Gallup has a degree in statistics….

BacaDog on August 30, 2011 at 10:49 AM

Sometimes, when you read the first comment, you just know there won’t be a better one further down. Kudos.

John Deaux on August 30, 2011 at 11:19 AM

which candidate or potential candidate do you think will repeal Obamacare and which do you think will tinker with it?

So far I think Palin and Bachmann will repeal it outright. All the others will simply tinker on the edges with it. The politicians what the death panels to control cost They will not repeal it without a POTUS telling them too.

unseen on August 30, 2011 at 11:21 AM

right2bright on August 30, 2011 at 11:15 AM

Sorry, I don’t want a Mittens or Huntsman. Not doing it.

NJ Red on August 30, 2011 at 11:22 AM

Meanwhile, over at Rasmussen Reports:

- Raw approval/disapproval is down to 43% approve (drop of 2 points from yesterday and 3 from Sunday)/56% disapprove (increase of 1 point from yesterday and 2 from Sunday), not far off the historical low of 41%/58% set on 6/18/2010 and 9/19/2010.

- The strong disapproval of 43% marks 24 straight days at or above 40%, something not seen since November 2010.

Look for another Gallup downgrade later today.

Steve Eggleston on August 30, 2011 at 11:22 AM

All of this changes when people are presented with a choice. What were Bush’s numbers in 2004? Then the dems mercifully nominated Kerry and Bush pulled out a win. Who we nominate is a huge factor.

Dash on August 30, 2011 at 10:51 AM

http://www.gallup.com/poll/116500/presidential-approval-ratings-george-bush.aspx

Bush at the same time in his presidency:
2003 Aug 25-26
Approve: 59
Disapprove: 37
Unknown: 4

2003 Sep 8-10
Approve: 52
Disapprove: 43
Unknown: 5

strictnein on August 30, 2011 at 11:23 AM

Despite his Midwestern jobs bus tour, Obama lost three points in the region.

Despite? Or because of?

bgoldman on August 30, 2011 at 11:24 AM

Yep Vegasrick…..heh

cmsinaz on August 30, 2011 at 11:25 AM

Despite? Or because of?

bgoldman on August 30, 2011 at 11:24 AM

I take because of vacation for 100 alex.

unseen on August 30, 2011 at 11:26 AM

Obama campaign slogan: OBAMA 2012 – I GOT NUTHIN’

NJ Red on August 30, 2011 at 11:26 AM

Patriotrider, make that jobs outline….

cmsinaz on August 30, 2011 at 11:27 AM

Obama campaign slogan: OBAMA 2012 – Reelect me and I’ll tell you what my jobs plan is

faraway on August 30, 2011 at 11:28 AM

So basically Obama is debt man walking.

We need to know turn our attention not to beating Obama, he is finished. Now our concern should be to pick the right person that will:

repeal Obamacare

cut spending

Pay down the debt

reform entitlements

stop the crony capitalism

clean out K street

fire the lobbyists

and restore America.

oh yeah and not being for open borders and outsourcing is a good idea too.

unseen on August 30, 2011 at 11:29 AM

If FOX news ran an 8 hour special allowing business owners a forum to speak to the folks as to what is needed to stimulate job growth and kick start our economy in this country I think that not only would the show be agreat success but the American people would better know where we are, what we need to do and some in-depth facts as to who and what is strangling the economy and who to blame.

VegasRick on August 30, 2011 at 11:33 AM

If these numbers don’t improve significantly, Obama is looking a Carter-like wipeout in 2012.  The question isn’t whether Obama can win; it’s whether Democrats in down-ticket races can avoid getting buried in the landslide, especially in US Senate races.

His policies have polled poorly for years, and it has been his personal popularity that have kept Democrat hope alive. But his vaunted personal popularity is eroding, and the more often he is out in front of cameras the more certain indie voters are becoming that Obama and the Crazy-ass Democrats are toxic to our livelihoods. If you are a Democrat strategist, like Plouffe or Axelrod, pretty soon you need to start focusing not so much on reelecting the President, as limiting the damage he causes to the party as a whole. Pretty soon, Congressional Democrats on the Super-Committee, for example, will approach their GOP colleagues and ask, how can we best work together?

You watch. They are getting ready to toss Obama under the bus.

MTF on August 30, 2011 at 11:33 AM

sixteen points with post-graduate college-educated voters, sixteen points among the highest income earners, and twelve points among self-described moderates

Is it that fools are coming to senses?

antisocial on August 30, 2011 at 11:34 AM

Well, Rasmussen has Obama beating Palin by 17 points in a Goldwater landslide.

What happened?

If you can’t trust Rasmussen, who can you trust? /sarc

technopeasant on August 30, 2011 at 11:34 AM

unseen on August 30, 2011 at 11:18 AM

I don’t know who that could be…..Could it be who I think it is?

Lanceman on August 30, 2011 at 11:40 AM

Look on the bright side, he’s at 70% approval…..with muslims

Alden Pyle on August 30, 2011 at 11:44 AM

Why is Gallup two days behind in its polls…

RedSoxNation on August 30, 2011 at 11:45 AM

If you are a Democrat strategist, like Plouffe or Axelrod, pretty soon you need to start focusing not so much on reelecting the President, as limiting the damage he causes to the party as a whole.

Other Democrat strategists may want to limit the damage to the party, but I don’t think Plouffe or Axelrod care a whit about anything except re-electing Obama.

You are right that congressional Dems aren’t going to take this lying down.

Missy on August 30, 2011 at 11:48 AM

Why is Gallup two days behind in its polls…

RedSoxNation on August 30, 2011 at 11:45 AM

They decided not to poll Sunday because of Irene. Or maybe it was because they saw the abysmal numbers for Obama they got when they polled on Saturday. ;)

Missy on August 30, 2011 at 11:49 AM

Pretty soon, Congressional Democrats on the Super-Committee, for example, will approach their GOP colleagues and ask, how can we best work together?

You watch. They are getting ready to toss Obama under the bus.

MTF on August 30, 2011 at 11:33 AM

If anyone’s going to cross over, it’ll be Sen. Max Baucus.

The three Dims from the House are hard-lefties and/or race-baiters.

The other two Dims from the Senate are Patty Murray and John F’in Kerry.

teke184 on August 30, 2011 at 11:50 AM

You are right that congressional Dems aren’t going to take this lying down.

Missy on August 30, 2011 at 11:48 AM

We are talking about the same people who kept Pelosi as their leader, right? The same people who made DWS their DNC chair?

NotCoach on August 30, 2011 at 11:53 AM

Gallup always forgets to poll 2 groups

ACORN voters who approve 751%

Dead voters who approve 388%

angryed on August 30, 2011 at 11:56 AM

I hate to jinx this, but man … I am starting to really look forward to the first Tuesday in November.

Think I’ll try to get a flat-screen installed on the porch so I can sit outside with a cigar while I watch.

That day in 2004 was like Christmas … this’ll be better.

Hope. Change. Yes.

And I don’t even care who the elephant’s nominate at this point.

Professor Blather on August 30, 2011 at 11:59 AM

So, is it Obama’s turn to get thrown under the bus?

Count to 10 on August 30, 2011 at 12:00 PM

I wonder if Matt Lauer asks him why he’s so controversial in their next lovefest disguised as an interview.

gsherin on August 30, 2011 at 11:05 AM

..oh, I love those interviews! Matt always shows up wearing the most adorable sequined knee pads.

The War Planner on August 30, 2011 at 12:04 PM

..on a siver of good news for The Pantload, Reuters reports that his approval among American Mooz-lems is 70%count it!

The War Planner on August 30, 2011 at 12:08 PM

So, is it Obama’s turn to get thrown under the bus?

Count to 10 on August 30, 2011 at 12:00 PM

A new poll by CNN and ORC International finds that 27 percent of Democrats would like to see their party nominate a candidate other than Barack Obama for president in 2012.

The Magic 8-Ball says “Outlook good”.

Rebar on August 30, 2011 at 12:15 PM

The dead can’t be polled, although they do vote, especially in Chicago.

Dhuka on August 30, 2011 at 12:26 PM

Barry thinks his numbers suck now. Wait until his much anticipated speech – the one with “new” ideas.

GarandFan on August 30, 2011 at 12:31 PM

The Magic 8-Ball says “Outlook good”.

Rebar on August 30, 2011 at 12:15 PM

The only type of Dem I can see jumping in is one who is at the end of their career and has nothing left to lose. Consider that many Republicans refuse to oppose Duh Won openly for fear of the “racist” tag thrown at them. Imagine the real racists (Democrats) being tarred with that brush. Political death sentence. The only possible salvation is if the media agrees that Obama needs to go (unlikely) and refuses to smear the Dem challenger.

SKYFOX on August 30, 2011 at 12:41 PM

Think I’ll try to get a flat-screen installed on the porch so I can sit outside with a cigar while I watch.

I am right there with Professor Blather. Some good beer and a tasty cigar, even if I’m banned to the outside in the November cold, will be just fine. Pelosi and Reed, and all the “Progressive” nuts, won’t enjoy it nearly so much (I hope).

MTF on August 30, 2011 at 12:41 PM

Today’s numbers are out and there’s no change. Still 38/55 in Gallup.

Steve Eggleston on August 30, 2011 at 1:04 PM

SKYFOX on August 30, 2011 at 12:41 PM

The democrat party is caught in the horns of a dilemma for sure.

If they run 0bama, not only will he get beat in a landslide, but his coattails would wreck the party for a decade – possibly splitting off a third party. If they primary 0bama, they’ll still lose the white house, but might salvage a few down ticket seats – but again at the risk of splitting off a third “progressive-black” third party.

They really have no good options – nor do they deserve any.

Rebar on August 30, 2011 at 1:07 PM

It makes me sad that 83% of black people think this is how our country should be run.

The liberals, I understand, they’re a bunch of socialists that love what’s going on.

But for the blacks in this country to think Obama’s leadership is good is just very sad. I think we’ve found out who the racists are, and it sure isn’t the folks in the tea party.

ButterflyDragon on August 30, 2011 at 1:50 PM

I wish we could see the post-grad component broken down by area. I’ll bet doctors don’t think the same way environmental biologists do.

I know a biologist, very intelligent, but everything is viewed in the context of her specialty. For instance, because people threaten her critters, she supports forced population control, because there are too many of us. Other ramifications of the issue don’t interest her.

jodetoad on August 30, 2011 at 4:29 PM

Blacks, liberals, and Democrats only groups with majority approval re-election hopes.

-
Coming soon…
-

RalphyBoy on August 31, 2011 at 11:58 AM