Elections expert who’s called every presidential race since ’84: Obama will win

posted at 4:53 pm on August 30, 2011 by Allahpundit

Dude, it’s over.

“Even if I am being conservative, I don’t see how Obama can lose,” says Lichtman, the brains behind The Keys to the White House…

Working for the president are several of Lichtman’s keys, tops among them incumbency and the scandal-free nature of his administration.Undermining his re-election is a lack of charisma and leadership on key issues, says Lichtman, even including healthcare, Obama’s crowning achievement.

Lichtman developed his 13 Keys in 1981. They test the performance of the party that holds the presidency. If six or more of the 13 keys go against the party in power, then the opposing party wins.“The keys have figured into popular politics a bit,” Lichtman says. “They’ve never missed. They’ve been right seven elections in a row. A number that goes way beyond statistical significance in a record no other system even comes close to.”

They’ve been right seven elections in a row about the popular vote. See Wikipedia’s precis of what the Keys predicted for Bush and Gore in 2000. For fair-use reasons, I can’t excerpt Lichtman’s analysis of how the 13 Keys will play out for Obama next year, so follow the link up top and read through. He’s got The One winning on nine of 13 counts:

1. No contested primary
2. Incumbency
3. No third-party candidate
4. Major domestic-policy changes in his first term
5. No social unrest
6. No major scandals
7. No major foreign-policy failures
8. Major foreign-policy achievements in his first term (killing Bin Laden)
9. Little charisma by his likely opponent

The GOP wins three categories:

1. The incumbent’s party lost seats in the last House election
2. The long-term economy looks poor
3. Little charisma by the incumbent

One other criterion, the state of the economy during the campaign, is undecided because no one knows yet how the short-term trends will look. In other words, if I’m reading this correctly, the GOP will be within one Key of winning the presidency if (a) economic indicators look bad next year, which is only too grimly plausible, and (b) they nominate someone charismatic, like, say, Rick Perry. (What the threshold is for measuring “charisma,” I have no idea.) In which case, how can Lichtman seriously say, “I don’t see how Obama can lose”? Especially since, surreally, he’s counting the stimulus, which the public reviles, and ObamaCare, about which the public is deeply suspicious, as a point in Obama’s favor because they are, after all, major “changes” to American domestic policy. By that standard, even the dumbest, most hated piece of legislation should be treated as an asset to a presidential campaign so long as it’s significant enough to constitute “major change.” If you flip that Key to the GOP, then you’ve got six for the Republicans — enough to take the White House by Lichtman’s own metrics.

All of which assumes, of course, that this will be an ordinary election like the past seven were. Maybe it will; maybe there’s no such thing as an extraordinary election. But the state of the economy is surely extraordinary, poised as it is for a double-dip, and unemployment is extraordinary compared to any other era over the past 75 years. That is to say, we’re assuming that these “Keys” are equally weighted in election after election, no matter the circumstances, when basic awareness of the current political climate suggests the two economic Keys will be weighted way more heavily than any of the others. Can’t wait to see how it plays out. If, heaven forbid, we do end up in another recession and The One wins anyway, then maybe Lichtman really is a genius.

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

Comment pages: 1 2 3 4

Allahpundit, isn’t your pessimism kicking into gear a bit early this election?

Has this guy successfully called every election since ’84 over a year prior to the election?

blink on August 30, 2011 at 5:00 PM

No, because his cat is more “man” than AP is…

ladyingray on August 30, 2011 at 5:21 PM

How is killing bin Laden a foreign policy achievement? I’ll concede it’s a victory in lessening man-made catastrophes, or even a win for homeland security.

John the Libertarian on August 30, 2011 at 5:22 PM

Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit drinking.

Mr. Wednesday Night on August 30, 2011 at 5:23 PM

No, because his cat is more “man” than AP is…

ladyingray on August 30, 2011 at 5:21 PM

Ouch!

sandee on August 30, 2011 at 5:23 PM

I think he’s overlooking the “incumbent has destroyed the American economy for the next 100 years” factor.

fogw on August 30, 2011 at 5:23 PM

As a side note – props to AP for finding and writing commentary on a piece that will engender plenty of discussion.

Anyone want to wager then number of comments when all is said and done?

200? 300?

Chip on August 30, 2011 at 5:24 PM

His Keys may have some validity, but as everyone else has pointed out, his assessment on whether or not Obama actually has them is highly suspect.

INC on August 30, 2011 at 5:24 PM

Come to think of it…..I like this.

All of this will nonsense will surround Obama, as it has been his entire life. He will be surrounded with delusions and think he’s bigger than he is. Go for it, hotpants.

I can’t wait to see the look on his face come November 2012. It will be so very sweet to behold.

bridgetown on August 30, 2011 at 5:24 PM

It looks like Lichtman is trying to derail any democrat primary challenge more than anything else.

Vashta.Nerada on August 30, 2011 at 5:24 PM

3. No third-party candidate

I don’t think this one inures to the benefit of a Democrat. I believe that it affects the re-election (or election) efforts of a Republican candidate as it did in 1992 & 1996 with Ross Perot. Clinton won election (and re-election) with a plurality but never a majority of the vote.

It’s hard for me to conceive of a third party candidate who could seriously take votes from the left of Obama. His left flank is secure. A third party candidate to the left or right of a Republican would cetrainly siphon votes from the Republican and probably hand victory to Obama.

Michael K. on August 30, 2011 at 5:24 PM

No social unrest? How about FLASH MOBS? Hot Air never touches the violent flash mob epidemic that is out of control in our urban areas. The “Urban Black Youths or UBY’s” are committing hate crimes against whites and browns and nothing but silence.
Drudge keeps documenting them and you can check here as well.

carbon_footprint on August 30, 2011 at 5:24 PM

You’re talking 7 only election cycles its not a statistically significant sample. and further all but a couple could have been predicted by anyone.

I’ve have my own method. I called George Bush over a year out before 2000, when nobody was talking much about him.

2012 will go Perry. bank on it.

exceller on August 30, 2011 at 5:24 PM

“No scandals”?

The entire carnival is a scandal, on the land, and the world.

Schadenfreude on August 30, 2011 at 5:24 PM

#14… a slobbering media on its knees ready to do anything for the president

angryed on August 30, 2011 at 5:24 PM

Lichtman says. “They’ve never missed. They’ve been right seven elections in a row. A number that goes way beyond statistical significance in a record no other system even comes close to.”

Such BS. You can’t say that when the “keys” he assigns are assigned so arbitrary. What makes a scandal a “major” scandal? Who ranks “charisma”? What is a “major” foreign policy blunder?

He could claim what he claims if it was solely based on data. Say GDP growth above a certain rate for a number of quarters before the election, the unemployment rate below a certain number, percentage of seats lost/gained in midterms, and similar stats. But he’s using things that he can arbitrarily assign.

strictnein on August 30, 2011 at 5:24 PM

Well then, since we’re talking about ‘long running’ polls and such.

AoS HQ has posted this.

It involves the ‘Michigan Index on Consumer Sentiment’, running since 1961.

In a nutshell:

The average read of the Index for successful reelection bids is 95.9.

The average read for unsuccessful reelection bids is 74.8.

For Obama…

The Index currently stands at 55.7.

So then, who’s right? Who’s got the best ‘track record’?

You decide.

CPT. Charles on August 30, 2011 at 5:25 PM

The final poll taken before the 1984 election showed Mondale winning 9 of the 11 issues polled. The 2 issues/character traits he lost? The economy & national security, the 2 biggest issues of the election.

PS- Reagan won those issues/character traits by a wide margin.

LFRGary on August 30, 2011 at 5:25 PM

!!!!!!!!WHAT!!!!!!!!!

Excuse me, perhaps this guy’s check-list is the de facto crystal ball, but methinks he’s watching an entirely different ball game than the rest us. Because, for life me, I cannot see how he arrives at those 9 falling into the Obama plus column!

1. No contested primary
Yet! And anyone who’s finger has been in the wind of late know’s that Obama’s support from the deep pockets has been crumbling!

2. Incumbency
Granted, but what with electorates universal disgust with all things DC, this may be less of an advantage then ever before.

3. No third-party candidate
Again, as yet, see item 1.

4. Major domestic-policy changes in his first term
I assume he’s talking Obamacare, which the vast majority of Americans beleive is a bridge too far, and the remaining 21% of the electorate that self identifies as liberal, not far enough. Definately not something for the plus column!

5. No social unrest
One word, FLASHMOBS!

6. No major scandals
Ahem, cough, cough,..GunWalker? And Mr. Issa is just getting started.

7. No major foreign-policy failures
Excuuuuuuuuuuuse me? Other than Bin Laden (Libya has yet to play out, see today’s Stratfor.

8. Major foreign-policy achievements in his first term (killing Bin Laden)
A given, but by count, thats only one of eight so far.

em>9. Little charisma by his likely opponent
Much has, can, and will be said of Perry before all this is over, but lack of charisma won’t be one of them.

The GOP wins three categories:

1. The incumbent’s party lost seats in the last House election

2. The long-term economy looks poor

3. Little charisma by the incumbent
Again, see 9 above!

What planet is this guy on?

Archimedes on August 30, 2011 at 5:25 PM

Factor “He has changed America in his Utopian image”.

Schadenfreude on August 30, 2011 at 5:25 PM

His Keys may have some validity, but as everyone else has pointed out, his assessment on whether or not Obama actually has them is highly suspect.

INC on August 30, 2011 at 5:24 PM

Yes, great comment.

carbon_footprint on August 30, 2011 at 5:25 PM

Uhhhh…Obama is @ 38%…who cares what this guy says.

therightwinger on August 30, 2011 at 5:26 PM

are assigned so arbitrary arbitrarily.

I so stupid…

strictnein on August 30, 2011 at 5:26 PM

He’s got The One winning on nine of 13 counts:

1. No contested primary [Caveat: We haven't seen how far he can sink yet. Dems will throw him over the side if it looks like they could lose everything.]

2. Incumbency

3. No third-party candidate [see #1.]

4. Major domestic-policy changes in his first term Uh, Porkulus? The QE series? ObamaCare? HELLO?!

5. No social unrest Yeah, the wilding in Philly and Wisconsin’s all in your head and couldn’t possibly spread…/ Also, I’d consider the rise of the Tea Party movement as non-violent social unrest. It already created a wave election of historic proportions, an honest man would recognize this as social unrest.

6. No major scandals The word “Gunwalker” comes to mind…

7. No major foreign-policy failures This is a joke, right?

8. Major foreign-policy achievements in his first term (killing Bin Laden) That’s not “foreign policy” that’s an objective of an ongoing war, d!ckhead.

9. Little charisma by his likely opponent Rick Perry may lack a few things, but charisma ain’t one of them. And if you REALLY wann talk about charisma…screw it, I don’t feel like arguing with Team Perry today…

I see Obama currently trailing 3-2…you know, if you’re intellectually honest when evaluating the keys.

SuperCool on August 30, 2011 at 5:26 PM

7 elections in a row but really only 1992, 2000 and 2004 were in doubt. 1984, 1988, 1996 and 2008 the winner was pretty much a given no matter what.

angryed on August 30, 2011 at 5:27 PM

SORRY….but this world has never seen ANYTHING like Barry Hussein and you can throw out all the “old” models for him….

Not buying it…..and IF this Country were to re-elect him after his performance, then we all deserve to rot in hell…..

SDarchitect on August 30, 2011 at 5:27 PM

Newsflash:

“Partisan democrat claims Obama will win re-election”

in other news

“Water still wet.”

Seriously, these keys and their values are pretty much a joke.

Also, if you’re going to cherry-pick and also exclude the times you get it wrong(2000 Bush V Gore), that’s a pretty bogus claim and no more than wishcasting.

Jason Coleman on August 30, 2011 at 5:27 PM

IIRC Lichtman came up with this in 1984 and says he’s retroactively applied it to every single US presidential election and it holds up. Not sure I buy that.

Missy on August 30, 2011 at 5:12 PM

A retroactive subjective evaluation. Impressive. I just retroactively correctly predicted every single presidential election in our history based on who’s hair I liked better.

And I went back to picking Grover Cleveland in 1892 over Benjamin Harrison because he changed his stylist after the 1888 election. Same with Andrew Jackson over John Quincy Adams in 1824.

NotCoach on August 30, 2011 at 5:27 PM

Lichtman developed his 13 Keys in 1981. They test the performance of the party that holds the presidency. If six or more of the 13 keys go against the party in power, then the opposing party wins”

.
Ok.
.
4. Major domestic-policy changes in his first term
.
– How is ObamaCare considered good?
– How is an increase from 5.6% unemployment to 9% unemployment considered good?
– How is 3 years of 9% unemployment considered good?
– Refusal to enforce national border integrity
– Judicial interference in state legislation requiring proof of citizenship
– Effective amnesty given to (how many) illegals?
.
5. No social unrest
.
None?
– ACORN & SEIU Exposes (by video, and in multiple cities)
– Tea Party
– 2010 Elections
– Wisconsin Elections (the gift that keeps on giving …)
.
6. No major scandals
.
None?
– New Black Panther Party voter intimidation case walk-away
– Fast & Furious / Gunrunner
– The Gibson Guitars case is starting to crumble; details here and now at Ace. The case is essentially an assault on American small/medium business, and looks like a test case for wider interference.
.
7. No major foreign-policy failures
.
– Insulting the British via CDs, protocol-failure at state dinner, …
– Giving British nuclear information to the Russians (at least it looks bad)
– Giving a reset button to the Russians
– Dismantling the European Missile Defense Shield, at Russian request
– Bowing to the Saudis
– Bowing to Akihito
.
8. Major foreign-policy achievements in his first term (killing Bin Laden)
.
Rumor is that he almost bungled the initial effort months ago, and that he also had to sleep on the decision … additional rumors say Jarret tried to sink the final operation … Panetta actually made it happen.
.
9. Little charisma by his likely opponent
.
Has Lichtman ever heard of Rick Perry? Or listend to him recently? HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
.
… This is starting to feel like asking Kloppner, after the recount was certified, if she still felt she had won …
.

Arbalest on August 30, 2011 at 5:27 PM

So then, who’s right? Who’s got the best ‘track record’?

You decide.

CPT. Charles on August 30, 2011 at 5:25 PM

Thank you. This is great. If he loses Michigan…well, then, we know what happens. Reagan smiles from his grave.

Schadenfreude on August 30, 2011 at 5:27 PM

5. No social unrest
6. No major scandals
7. No major foreign-policy failures

Three in one right here:

Latino group claims Aztlán war in next five years

Phoenix-based Nuestros Reconquistos claims that there will be a war very similar to the Civil War fought in the next five years. “La Raza and MEChA have already talked to Latinos and Phoenix and explained that Latinos need to arm themselves for war,” says Nuestros Reconquistos President Manuel Longoria.

Good thing the ATF is arming those folks.

NMRN123 on August 30, 2011 at 5:28 PM

Sorry got interrupted.

7. No major foreign-policy failures
Excuuuuuuuuuuuse me? Other than Bin Laden (Libya has yet to play out, see today’s Stratfor) what has’nt been an absolute failure!

Archimedes on August 30, 2011 at 5:29 PM

When you look up the word “charisma” Perry’s picture jumps up, and give the left, and the elitist right, the heebie jeebies.

Schadenfreude on August 30, 2011 at 5:29 PM

Nobody seems to mention his horrible failures with respect to Israel and the Palis. That’s probably where the next big war will start.

JimK on August 30, 2011 at 5:30 PM

With countless groups and people predicting, someone’s going to “always” be right… until they’re wrong.

They’ve been right seven elections in a row about the popular vote.

…and it’s especially easy when they move the goalposts from who has the “keys to the White House” to who get a plurality of the popular vote.

calbear on August 30, 2011 at 5:32 PM

I’m still going to vote and I won’t be voting for Obama.

MeatHeadinCA on August 30, 2011 at 5:32 PM

Boo hoo hoo… (crying)… it’s over, time for the GOP to concede and declare Obama re-elected! /sarc

I guess Mr. Lichtman is about to experience the same fate that befell major pollsters in 2010 – the Tea Party effect!

We are in the “age of the Tea Party” and all rules fly out the window in these abnormal times… so if his prediction makes Obama feel better, he can swallow it until he is thrown out of the White House.

TheRightMan on August 30, 2011 at 5:33 PM

Re little Bammie scandals, let’s not forget the simmering Rezko criminal cases, which thus far Patrick Fitzgerald has very successfully shielded little Bammie from. There’s no guarantee that case won’t blow up.

slickwillie2001 on August 30, 2011 at 5:33 PM

99% of HA commenters harbor serious misconceptions about what constitutes “social unrest” or a “major scandal” but possess a seemingly infinite capacity for wishful thinking.

sesquipedalian on August 30, 2011 at 5:33 PM

Take a look as California if you want to see this President’s vision for the future for the rest of the country, think about moving there or all of California moving to where you are.

The nation needs to know what’s coming.

Speakup on August 30, 2011 at 5:34 PM

One question: Did this ‘expert’ predict the other elections this far out?

Chip on August 30, 2011 at 5:34 PM

Um. . .

3. THIRD PARTY CHALLENGE: A third party would not hurt Barry, it would help him since that 3rd party would likely be very conservative. Don’t know how he considers this a “win” for an incumbant. LOSE.

4. SHORT TERM ECONOMY: “Undecided?” Really?!? LOSE.

7. POLICY CHANGE: Given that the two major policy changes he cites are wildly unpopular (Obamacare especially and Porkulus), don’t see how this is a win. Guess he’s saying ANY major policy changes are good? Odd. LOSE.

8. SOCIAL UNREST: I’d like to see more of what he considers this key to consist of. I would say the rise of the Tea Party and the mess in Wisconsin might well count as social unrest. Still, without knowing what he considers unrest here, I’ll have to go with “UNDECIDED.”

13. CHALLENGER CHARISMA: Perry or Palin would provide plenty of charisma. “UNDECIDED” fits here until we know who gets the nod.

And lookie there – my adjusted keys have Barry losing.

We’ll shall see. . .

RedNewEnglander on August 30, 2011 at 5:36 PM

Obama loses these:

Anyone who thinks Obozo loses 8 is as out of his mind as the person who wrote that stupid article. Whether you like it or not killing bin laden is a major foreign policy succes. I agree it won’t help much but that doesn’t change the fact that he takes that point. Sheesh.

Darth Executor on August 30, 2011 at 5:36 PM

A lot can happen in the next 14 months.

TimBuk3 on August 30, 2011 at 5:37 PM

I for one still think Obama will win, but for different reasons. It’s not the keys, it’s the reporting.

As long as the Media keep mute on so many of Obama’s bad showings that pertain to the “keys”, and keeps boosting Obama, he’ll win with the Oblivious Voters’ votes.

Or do I underestimate the American people?

flicker on August 30, 2011 at 5:37 PM

99% of HA commenters harbor serious misconceptions about what constitutes “social unrest” or a “major scandal” but possess a seemingly infinite capacity for wishful thinking.

sesquipedalian on August 30, 2011 at 5:33 PM

100 % of Hot Air trolls seemingly only show up when the threads favor their Man-God.

He’s going down in 2012.

hawkdriver on August 30, 2011 at 5:38 PM

99% of HA commenters harbor serious misconceptions about what constitutes “social unrest” or a “major scandal” but possess a seemingly infinite capacity for wishful thinking.

sesquipedalian on August 30, 2011 at 5:33 PM

So flah mob riots and arming foreign criminals doesnot bother you?

Moron

katy the mean old lady on August 30, 2011 at 5:38 PM

Well that ought to make AP happy being he is a closet Obama fan.

The Notorious G.O.P on August 30, 2011 at 5:39 PM

99% of HA commenters harbor serious misconceptions about what constitutes “social unrest” or a “major scandal” but possess a seemingly infinite capacity for wishful thinking.

sesquipedalian on August 30, 2011 at 5:33 PM

Idiot troll didn’t see the headline.

Wishful thinking, indeed.

fossten on August 30, 2011 at 5:40 PM

4. Major domestic-policy changes in his first term — GROWING MORE UNPOPULAR EVERY DAY
5. No social unrest — AHEM, TEA PARTY.
6. No major scandals — AHEM, GUNRUNNER.

Give me a break.

Rational Thought on August 30, 2011 at 4:58 PM

Tea Party/unpopular policies… Let us not forget that Barry and San Fran Nan’s policies were such a 180 from what he campaigned on that there were mass demonstrations within 90 days of his inauguration.

phreshone on August 30, 2011 at 5:41 PM

He’s going down in 2012.

hawkdriver on August 30, 2011 at 5:38 PM

Overconfidence is a dangerous thing. The Dems still have an awesome GOTV machine, and Obama is still the First Black President ™ . Ain’t no way that beating him would be a walk in the park, I don’t care who the GOP nominee is.

ddrintn on August 30, 2011 at 5:42 PM

sesquipedalian on August 30, 2011 at 5:33 PM

And you are the e-Einstein.

Schadenfreude on August 30, 2011 at 5:42 PM

ddrintn on August 30, 2011 at 5:42 PM

Okay,

We’re going to lose.

hawkdriver on August 30, 2011 at 5:43 PM

Ain’t no way that beating him would be a walk in the park, I don’t care who the GOP nominee is.

ddrintn on August 30, 2011 at 5:42 PM

Won’t be a walk in the park. It’ll be a walk into history, as it must.

Schadenfreude on August 30, 2011 at 5:45 PM

Okay,

We’re going to lose.

hawkdriver on August 30, 2011 at 5:43 PM

No, “Okay, it’s going to be tough as hell to dislodge Obama.”

ddrintn on August 30, 2011 at 5:45 PM

The Obamas will leave office and fade into the sunset be perennial bitter complainers on every talk show on TV, forever to be known as losers and takers. Take it to the bank.

Keemo on August 30, 2011 at 5:10 PM

FIFY.

:-P

Mary in LA on August 30, 2011 at 5:45 PM

Won’t be a walk in the park. It’ll be a walk into history, as it must.

Schadenfreude on August 30, 2011 at 5:45 PM

I wish I could be so sure. I think people might be reading a little too much into the 2010 midterms. It’s going to be somewhat different in 2012.

ddrintn on August 30, 2011 at 5:46 PM

No, “Okay, it’s going to be tough as hell to dislodge Obama.”

ddrintn on August 30, 2011 at 5:45 PM

But, if we accomplish that, will he not have, gone down?

hawkdriver on August 30, 2011 at 5:46 PM

But, if we accomplish that, will he not have, gone down?

hawkdriver on August 30, 2011 at 5:46 PM

If, yeah, sure.

ddrintn on August 30, 2011 at 5:47 PM

My prediction: We are all going to have to kiss and makeup to beat Obama in 2012.

faraway on August 30, 2011 at 5:47 PM

And then barry’s media machine will go into a frenzy if there’s any chance of him not being elected.

on greta’s show last night she had two airhead journos on..one was rick klein of ABC and the other was from NYT (last name was Story!. Greta totally took them apart…it was funny to watch. Both were avid barry cheerleaders who were so stupid they didn’t know greta was taking them down. Truly maroons. young, stupid, barry hacks. the NYT “reporter” was ready to do battle with anyone who dissed her beloved..rah, rah, she had her poms poms ready to go.

r keller on August 30, 2011 at 5:48 PM

cripe and i was feeling pretty good this afternoon too…

so the fast and furious scandal doesn’t count?

cmsinaz on August 30, 2011 at 5:49 PM

Lichtman wrong in 2000 also

ConservativePartyNow on August 30, 2011 at 5:49 PM

If, yeah, sure.

ddrintn on August 30, 2011 at 5:47 PM

Then,

He’s going down in 2012.

hawkdriver on August 30, 2011 at 5:49 PM

Chip on August 30, 2011 at 5:34 PM

good question chip!!!

cmsinaz on August 30, 2011 at 5:49 PM

And then barry’s media machine will go into a frenzy if there’s any chance of him not being elected.

r keller on August 30, 2011 at 5:48 PM

You’d better believe it.

ddrintn on August 30, 2011 at 5:49 PM

ddrintn on August 30, 2011 at 5:49 PM

2nd that…can you see tingles on election night…holy macaronies…

cmsinaz on August 30, 2011 at 5:50 PM

Then,

He’s going down in 2012.

hawkdriver on August 30, 2011 at 5:49 PM

No, he might be. You hope.

ddrintn on August 30, 2011 at 5:50 PM

I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue.

truth2power on August 30, 2011 at 5:50 PM

ConservativePartyNow on August 30, 2011 at 5:49 PM

Two good links. Basically destroys the meme of the whole thread.

hawkdriver on August 30, 2011 at 5:51 PM

ddrintn on August 30, 2011 at 5:49 PM

2nd that…can you see tingles on election night…holy macaronies…

cmsinaz on August 30, 2011 at 5:50 PM

Hmmm, it’s not election night I’m thinking of, it’s the period of time between the conventions and the election. You talk about a frenzy.

ddrintn on August 30, 2011 at 5:51 PM

Who says there won’t be a primary challenge to the One?

I expect a primary challenge.

Ditto for social unrest and very possibly a 3rd party challenge.

And his major domestic policy change (socialized medicine) will be an anchor around his neck.

molonlabe28 on August 30, 2011 at 5:51 PM

angryed on August 30, 2011 at 5:24 PM

ding ding ding

cmsinaz on August 30, 2011 at 5:51 PM

ddrintn on August 30, 2011 at 5:50 PM

WTH?

hawkdriver on August 30, 2011 at 5:52 PM

He’s going to be tough to beat. I think we should all call a truce and respect each others’ opinions and not diss all over each others’ preferred candidates.
lol, j/k

carbon_footprint on August 30, 2011 at 5:52 PM

^ The Democrats and their allies in the media will do ANYthing to keep Obama in the White House. I’m still not convinced that the “financial meltdown” in 2008 wasn’t orchestrated.

ddrintn on August 30, 2011 at 5:52 PM

No, “Okay, it’s going to be tough as hell to dislodge Obama.”

ddrintn on August 30, 2011 at 5:45 PM

It still must be done, for the survival of the land, as you know her. An unrestrained by re-election Obama will be the current one on speed, non-stop. His mission is clear. He has succeeded in his “change of America”. His Utopian dream has just begun.

Fight him like Hell.

Schadenfreude on August 30, 2011 at 5:53 PM

Hmmm, it’s not election night I’m thinking of, it’s the period of time between the conventions and the election. You talk about a frenzy.

ddrintn on August 30, 2011 at 5:51 PM

You should focus on another period, btw. election night, if he loses, and the day the new one is sworn in. YOU have not seen EOs and pardons of such caliber, yet.

Schadenfreude on August 30, 2011 at 5:55 PM

I have also developed “keys”, and my keys say Obama will be lucky to win five states. Unlike the bozo cited above, my keys include little things like “unemployment is bad and getting worse”, “first debt downgrade in American history”, “citizenry on the verge of reinstating tar and feathering unpopular politicians”. Stuff like that.

MTF on August 30, 2011 at 5:55 PM

ddrintn on August 30, 2011 at 5:51 PM

ahhh yes, 24/7 coverage of dear leader

o-ba-ma o-ba-ma o-ba-ma

like stepford wives…

cmsinaz on August 30, 2011 at 5:57 PM

I have also developed “keys”, and my keys say Obama will be lucky to win five states.

MTF on August 30, 2011 at 5:55 PM

Don’t be silly. I can count 10 right off the top of my head that will probably remain blue even if Zombie Reagan ran.

ddrintn on August 30, 2011 at 5:57 PM

Joke right? Well, there are some fools that will buy it I guess.

winston on August 30, 2011 at 5:57 PM

Lichtman appears to be engaging in wishful thinking.

1. No contested primary
2. Incumbency
3. No third-party candidate
4. Major domestic-policy changes in his first term
5. No social unrest
6. No major scandals
7. No major foreign-policy failures
8. Major foreign-policy achievements in his first term (killing Bin Laden)
9. Little charisma by his likely opponent

1. Democratic Party hasn’t nominated Barry for 2nd term YET.
2. No brainer
3. See #1
4. ObamaCare – not accepted by 60% of voters – that’s not a +
5. Define “social unrest”. What about TEA PARTY TERRORISTS?
6. No major scandals – FAST AND FURIOUS
7. No FP failures – Yeah, The Russia “Re-set” was great!
8. FP Achievements – Seal Team gets BinLaden on Barry’s watch
9. WHO is Barry’s opponent?

A little more HONESTY on Lictman’s (D) part would be appreciated.

GarandFan on August 30, 2011 at 5:57 PM

ahhh yes, 24/7 coverage of dear leader

o-ba-ma o-ba-ma o-ba-ma

like stepford wives…

cmsinaz on August 30, 2011 at 5:57 PM

More like 24/7 coverage of dirt and slime on his challenger.

ddrintn on August 30, 2011 at 5:58 PM

Schadenfreude on August 30, 2011 at 5:55 PM

VERY good point…and the lsm will praise him for bypassing congress

cmsinaz on August 30, 2011 at 5:58 PM

Sorry, this is so silly that it’s a waste of time to even mock it.

This isn’t science or even reason. It’s bad argumentation using bullet points.

Beldar on August 30, 2011 at 5:59 PM

The Obamas will leave office and fade into the sunset be perennial bitter complainers on every talk show on TV, forever to be known as losers and takers. Take it to the bank.

Keemo on August 30, 2011 at 5:10 PM

FIFY.

:-P

Mary in LA on August 30, 2011 at 5:45 PM

I sure hope somebody at the WH is starting to count the silverware and nailing down anything that can be moved. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if the “Let them eat cake” couple tried to walk off with more than a few souvenirs from their days of acting like royalty.

GrannyDee on August 30, 2011 at 5:59 PM

ddrintn on August 30, 2011 at 5:58 PM

tru dat

cmsinaz on August 30, 2011 at 5:59 PM

Working for the president are several of Lichtman’s keys, tops among them incumbency and the scandal-free nature of his administration.

This is so laughable. The whole Obama administration and agenda is a scandal.

Hey.. what’s this? Looks like another freaking scandal to me.
ATF Director Reassigned; U.S. Attorney Out Amid ‘Fast and Furious’ Uproar

Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/08/30/sources-atf-director-to-be-reassigned-amid-fast-and-furious-uproar/#ixzz1WYIp66Iu

JellyToast on August 30, 2011 at 6:01 PM

A slighly different take:

Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections. Says Lichtman, “Even back in January 2010 when I first released my predictions, I was already counting on a significant loss.” Obama loses this key.

Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. Says Lichtman on Obama’s unchallenged status, “I never thought there would be any serious contest against Barack Obama in the Democratic primary.” Obama wins this key. Probably true but not certain, I’d still give this to Obama.

Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. Easy win here for Obama.

Third Party: There is no significant third party challenge. Obama wins this point.

Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. Here Lichtman declares an “undecided.” Almost certainly a loss for Obama.

Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. Says Lichtman, “I discounted long term economy against Obama. Clearly we are in a recession.” Obama loses this key. [Read: Seven Ways Obama Can Gain Credibility on Jobs.]

Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. “There have been major policy changes in this administration. We’ve seen the biggest stimulus in history and an complete overhaul of the healthcare system so I gave him policy change,” says the scholar. Another win for Obama. This will be more an anchor than a boon. Obama loses.

Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. Says Lichtman, “There wasn’t any social unrest when I made my predictions for 2012 and there still isn’t.” Obama wins a fifth key here. The lead up to the 2012 election will occur in a pre-revolutionary atmosphere. The impact of this is hard to call but this can not be given to Obama now.

Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. “This administration has been squeaky clean. There’s nothing on scandal,” says Lichtman. Another Obama win. Fast and Furious, Black Panther amnesty and others being suppressed by the MSM. May be an Achilles heel. Toss up.

Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. Says Lichtman, “We haven’t seen any major failure that resembles something like the Bay of Pigs and don’t foresee anything.” Obama wins again. Nothing Bay of Pig’s size yet but a steady drum beat of erosion, the corruption of the Arab Spring, Venezuela, Iranian bomb, leaving Israel at death’s door. etc.
Obama loss.

Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. “Since Osama bin Laden was found and killed, I think Obama has achieved military success.” Obama wins his eighth key. Too stale by 2012 election to matter. Obama neutral.

Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. Explains Lichtman, “I did not give President Obama the incumbent charisma key. I counted it against him. He’s really led from behind. He didn’t really take the lead in the healthcare debate, he didn’t use his speaking ability to move the American people during the recession. He’s lost his ability to connect since the 2008 election.” Obama loses this key. [See political cartoons about President Obama.] Likely revelations about Mr. Obama’s past and murky ancestry, and social-academic record could bring his administration to an abrupt end. Obama loss.

Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. Says Lichtman, “We haven’t seen any candidate in the GOP who meets this criteria and probably won’t.” Obama wins, bringing his total to nine keys, three more than needed to win reelection. Obama loses. His score of three is not enough to carry him over the finish line.

Mason on August 30, 2011 at 6:01 PM

Killing Obama isn’t a “foreign policy success”.

It’s an accomplished military success that’s for sure, but it’s not a foreign policy success.

Given the reaction from those not already on our side, it might even be properly categorized as a military success/foreign policy failure.

If you can find me something out of the Sec.State office that is a “success” I’d be willing to consider it, but a CIA/Defense department operation that Obama sat on for 6 months before essentially being forced into the decision isn’t a “foreign policy success”.

Of course with something like these “keys”, moving the goalposts is part of the game.

Jason Coleman on August 30, 2011 at 6:02 PM

OUCH!

That REALLY REALLY REALLY should have read killing Osama.

Sorry for the Kennedy.

Jason Coleman on August 30, 2011 at 6:03 PM

Jason Coleman on August 30, 2011 at 6:02 PM

Osama.

hawkdriver on August 30, 2011 at 6:03 PM

Guess I should clean house a bit before the SS comes a knockin.

Jason Coleman on August 30, 2011 at 6:04 PM

Since ’84?!? They’ve called every election since ’84? Then we’re doomed. I mean, since ’84!

MaxMBJ on August 30, 2011 at 6:06 PM

Guess I should clean house a bit before the SS comes a knockin.

Jason Coleman on August 30, 2011 at 6:04 PM

Lol.

carbon_footprint on August 30, 2011 at 6:06 PM

What does Paul the Octopus think?

Uncledave on August 30, 2011 at 6:09 PM

Besides his “homer” analysis, many good theories lasted for a while before they finally disproved themselves. If he’s banking on this one, he’s about to fail.

Dog bites on August 30, 2011 at 6:10 PM

Comment pages: 1 2 3 4