Elections expert who’s called every presidential race since ’84: Obama will win

posted at 4:53 pm on August 30, 2011 by Allahpundit

Dude, it’s over.

“Even if I am being conservative, I don’t see how Obama can lose,” says Lichtman, the brains behind The Keys to the White House…

Working for the president are several of Lichtman’s keys, tops among them incumbency and the scandal-free nature of his administration.Undermining his re-election is a lack of charisma and leadership on key issues, says Lichtman, even including healthcare, Obama’s crowning achievement.

Lichtman developed his 13 Keys in 1981. They test the performance of the party that holds the presidency. If six or more of the 13 keys go against the party in power, then the opposing party wins.“The keys have figured into popular politics a bit,” Lichtman says. “They’ve never missed. They’ve been right seven elections in a row. A number that goes way beyond statistical significance in a record no other system even comes close to.”

They’ve been right seven elections in a row about the popular vote. See Wikipedia’s precis of what the Keys predicted for Bush and Gore in 2000. For fair-use reasons, I can’t excerpt Lichtman’s analysis of how the 13 Keys will play out for Obama next year, so follow the link up top and read through. He’s got The One winning on nine of 13 counts:

1. No contested primary
2. Incumbency
3. No third-party candidate
4. Major domestic-policy changes in his first term
5. No social unrest
6. No major scandals
7. No major foreign-policy failures
8. Major foreign-policy achievements in his first term (killing Bin Laden)
9. Little charisma by his likely opponent

The GOP wins three categories:

1. The incumbent’s party lost seats in the last House election
2. The long-term economy looks poor
3. Little charisma by the incumbent

One other criterion, the state of the economy during the campaign, is undecided because no one knows yet how the short-term trends will look. In other words, if I’m reading this correctly, the GOP will be within one Key of winning the presidency if (a) economic indicators look bad next year, which is only too grimly plausible, and (b) they nominate someone charismatic, like, say, Rick Perry. (What the threshold is for measuring “charisma,” I have no idea.) In which case, how can Lichtman seriously say, “I don’t see how Obama can lose”? Especially since, surreally, he’s counting the stimulus, which the public reviles, and ObamaCare, about which the public is deeply suspicious, as a point in Obama’s favor because they are, after all, major “changes” to American domestic policy. By that standard, even the dumbest, most hated piece of legislation should be treated as an asset to a presidential campaign so long as it’s significant enough to constitute “major change.” If you flip that Key to the GOP, then you’ve got six for the Republicans — enough to take the White House by Lichtman’s own metrics.

All of which assumes, of course, that this will be an ordinary election like the past seven were. Maybe it will; maybe there’s no such thing as an extraordinary election. But the state of the economy is surely extraordinary, poised as it is for a double-dip, and unemployment is extraordinary compared to any other era over the past 75 years. That is to say, we’re assuming that these “Keys” are equally weighted in election after election, no matter the circumstances, when basic awareness of the current political climate suggests the two economic Keys will be weighted way more heavily than any of the others. Can’t wait to see how it plays out. If, heaven forbid, we do end up in another recession and The One wins anyway, then maybe Lichtman really is a genius.

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HOGWASH.

singlemalt 18 on August 30, 2011 at 4:55 PM

Since ’84? That tells me he messed up on Reagan in’80. This is history repeating itself, buddy. Just like Carter the faint-hearted got shellacked, so shall it be in ’12.

honsy on August 30, 2011 at 4:56 PM

and the scandal-free nature of his administration.

I guess scandals that are ignored by the press don’t count, then.

Vashta.Nerada on August 30, 2011 at 4:57 PM

This may be the most important election of our lifetime…

d1carter on August 30, 2011 at 4:57 PM

Obama is unprecedented…

SCOAMF

gwelf on August 30, 2011 at 4:57 PM

Couldn’t “fast and furious” be a major scandal?

taney71 on August 30, 2011 at 4:57 PM

Since ’84? That tells me he messed up on Reagan in’80.

No, I believe his book didn’t come out until after that election. 1984 was the first one he tried to predict.

Allahpundit on August 30, 2011 at 4:57 PM

2 points determine a line, but it takes 3 to determine a trend.

7 points is trend, but it is FAR FROM A RULE.

singlemalt 18 on August 30, 2011 at 4:58 PM

Yeah but what does Dick Morris say?

Cicero43 on August 30, 2011 at 4:58 PM

I question the idea that Oblamer has been scandal free, among other bad inputs into this idiotic conclusion.

joeindc44 on August 30, 2011 at 4:58 PM

4. Major domestic-policy changes in his first term — GROWING MORE UNPOPULAR EVERY DAY
5. No social unrest — AHEM, TEA PARTY.
6. No major scandals — AHEM, GUNRUNNER.

Give me a break.

Rational Thought on August 30, 2011 at 4:58 PM

4. Major domestic-policy changes in his first term
5. No social unrest
6. No major scandals
7. No major foreign-policy failures
8. Major foreign-policy achievements in his first term (killing Bin Laden)
9. Little charisma by his likely opponent

Er…? You’re kidding me, right?

John the Libertarian on August 30, 2011 at 4:59 PM

If Obama wins the popular vote in states 51-57, he’s a shoe-in.

dirtseller on August 30, 2011 at 5:00 PM

7. No major foreign-policy failures

Really? Honduras, Egypt, Iran, Libya, and a few other locales would beg to disagree.

Vashta.Nerada on August 30, 2011 at 5:00 PM

Working for the president are several of Lichtman’s keys, tops among them incumbency and the scandal-free nature of his administration

O.K. I stopped reading right there.

Knucklehead on August 30, 2011 at 5:00 PM

5. No social unrest
6. No major scandals


I guess as long as the MSM ignores it it’s not happening. Have a beer, sit back and enjoy taking it up the back side America – because what you think is happening out there just isn’t. Gun Walker, flash mobs….

mauioriginal on August 30, 2011 at 5:00 PM

Working for the president are several of Lichtman’s keys, tops among them incumbency and the scandal-free nature of his administration.

Oh, REALLY? I’m sure Fast & Furious is nothing, then.

We need 10 Issas to investigate the shabby doings of this administration.

Undermining his re-election is a lack of charisma

Which was the only thing he had going for him in 2008. Oh, and he’s still black.

disa on August 30, 2011 at 5:01 PM

No, I believe his book didn’t come out until after that election. 1984 was the first one he tried to predict.

Allahpundit

That may very well be so, but the history repeating itself from ’80 to ’12 is still valid with two loser incumbents.

honsy on August 30, 2011 at 5:01 PM

Operation Fast and Furious: Major scandal.
TEA Party birth: Social unrest.
Lybia, Egypt: Major Foreign Policy failure.

Obama loses on these two as well.

Obama has already lost the election based on these keys.

The Rock on August 30, 2011 at 5:01 PM

Sorry, Lichtman, but I’m betting even most of the Dimwit 52% will realize that Osama Obama’s regime has been far from “scandal-free,” and they will realize it before election day.

One “key” indicator of coming defeat for the Traitor-in-Chief is that no SCoaMF has ever won re-election.

(Okay, so we’ve never elected one before, but still….)

MrScribbler on August 30, 2011 at 5:01 PM

Due, sooner or later the slot machine will come up 7-7-bar. Get over it.

Limerick on August 30, 2011 at 5:02 PM

Seriously… if we allow this turd to retain the White House, then we deserve whatever turmoil comes our way.

ErinF on August 30, 2011 at 5:02 PM

Well, let’s make some history.

hawkdriver on August 30, 2011 at 5:02 PM

Obama wins…..America loses.

That friggin simple.

PappyD61 on August 30, 2011 at 5:02 PM

Not supporting the Green Movement in Iran was a debacle.

John the Libertarian on August 30, 2011 at 5:03 PM

6. No major scandals

Firing the Inspector-General of Americorps in order to protect a political ally (who is also a personal friend of Obama’s wife) from criminal charges stemming from corruption?

Dropping charges against Black Panthers who intimidated white voters outside a polling station in Philadelphia?

Forcing American gun-dealers to sell weapons to Mexican drug gangs, and then using the inevitable deadly results to argue for restrictions on 2nd-amendment freedoms in the United States?

Attempting to block Boeing from opening a factory in South Carolina?

Raiding a guitar-seller who donates to Republicans, while ignoring his main competitor who donates to Democrats?

Hundreds of billions of dollars of government spending used to bail-out groups that support Democrats?

DKCZ on August 30, 2011 at 5:03 PM

I think Barry’s approval numbers say otherwise.

mizflame98 on August 30, 2011 at 5:03 PM

Based on Lichtman’s analysis, Obama will annouce next week to cancel next year’s federal elections, since the results are a foregone conclusion, to save $5 Billion dollars; thus, challenging the GOP to put their spending crusade to the test.

WashJeff on August 30, 2011 at 5:03 PM

The Rock on August 30, 2011 at 5:01 PM

Exactly. Lichtman seems to be tweaking his thesis to arrive at his preferred conclusion.

Vashta.Nerada on August 30, 2011 at 5:03 PM

Lichtman is halfway into Obama’s azz, but Michael Tomasky is way up front.

“It’s (still) the economy, stupid” — James Carville

2012 will be the most extraordinary election, ever.

40 states against the thugs. They should not only be thrown out, they s/b mocked, belittled and ‘pitchforked’, so that such charlatanry never ever happens again.

Schadenfreude on August 30, 2011 at 5:04 PM

Brilliant satire!

Kataklysmic on August 30, 2011 at 5:04 PM

Obama loses these:

4. Major domestic-policy changes in his first term

Yes, but his accomplishments are widely regarded as failures. Obamacare is not popular.

7. No major foreign-policy failures

Good grief. Is Lictman serious.

8. Major foreign-policy achievements in his first term (killing Bin Laden)

Won’t matter with the ecdonomy in the dumper and people who might care know it’s just a matter of time until O is attacked by a rabbit.

Republicans flip six total and others are fluttering.

exdeadhead on August 30, 2011 at 5:04 PM

But, let the Lichtmans fool the left. I love delusional lefties.

Oh, another prediction, when Hillary observes that Obama is beatable, she might jump in.

Schadenfreude on August 30, 2011 at 5:04 PM

Ray Fair has the following predictions:

Computed (output) values:
53.45 Democratic share of the two-party presidential vote in 2012 (VP)
48.52 Democratic share of the two-party House vote in 2012 (VC)

Spathi on August 30, 2011 at 5:04 PM

1. No contested primary
2. Incumbency
3. No third-party candidate
4. Major domestic-policy changes in his first term
5. No social unrest
6. No major scandals
7. No major foreign-policy failures
8. Major foreign-policy achievements in his first term (killing Bin Laden)
9. Little charisma by his likely opponent

The GOP wins three categories:

1. The incumbent’s party lost seats in the last House election
2. The long-term economy looks poor
3. Little charisma by the incumbent

Let me take a crack at these:

The Dems -
1) No contested primary. I’ll give them that, but the base ain’t happy right now.
2) Incumbency. Duh!
3) No third-party candidate. True, unless Trump or Ron Paul lets their ego get the best of them.
4) Major domestic policy changes. Yeah, but is that a good thing? Obamacare, anyone?
5) No social unrest. Unless you count those flash mobs and union protests. Granted, small scale stuff, but that’s usually how mass riots start.
6) No major scandals. Only because the media is burying them. Operation Fast and Furious, anyone?
7) No major foreign policy failures. The body count is mounting in Afghanistan. Iran is on the verge of getting a nuke. And Egypt could soon put the Muslim Brotherhood in control.
8) Major foreign policy achievements. Killing bin Laden and….anything else?
9) Little charisma by his likely opponent. I disagree if it’s Perry. Dude is great on the stump.

The GOP -
1) The incumbent’s party lost House seats in last election. Not only did they lose seats, it was a historic asswhooping. Think that won’t carry over to 2012?
2) The long-term economy looks poor. And this will be the signature issue in 2012. It alone could cost Obama the election.
3) Little charisma by the incumbent. Obama’s not only not charismatic lately, he sounds petulant and mean-spirited. Hopenchange this is not.

Add it all up and Lichtman is being very generous with Obama. Especially by glossing over the economy like it’s just another in a long list of campaign issues. It’s the driving force behind Obama’s collapse in the polls and Perry’s ascendency. It’s naive to say the least to assume 2012 will be just like any other election. Especially after what went down in 2010.

Doughboy on August 30, 2011 at 5:05 PM

It’s on. Gene Simmons vs. Lichtman

faraway on August 30, 2011 at 5:05 PM

This is better than SNL.

Schadenfreude on August 30, 2011 at 5:05 PM

9. Little charisma by his likely opponent

Hmmm. Who do we know with charisma?

John Deaux on August 30, 2011 at 5:05 PM

6. No major scandals

Gunwalker will blow open.

irishspy on August 30, 2011 at 5:06 PM

It seems to me this guy is using the age old tested trick all libs use to win every argument-

Changing word definitions.

One man’s “unrest, scandal, policy failure” is another man’s ……..

Browndog on August 30, 2011 at 5:06 PM

Pulling our missile defense out of Eastern Europe was a huge blunder.

John the Libertarian on August 30, 2011 at 5:06 PM

Looks like he’s about to earn a 1 in his loss column.

princetrumpet on August 30, 2011 at 5:06 PM

How about the Pappy Possum Poll?

Every election since Alf Landon in ’36 the Possums have been right.

If ya finds one dead Possum on the road the night before the election the Democrat wins.

Two or more dead, the GOP wins.

I’ve seen a lot of Possums round chere lately.

I’m goin with the critters on dis one.

PappyD61 on August 30, 2011 at 5:06 PM

Elections expert who’s called every presidential race since ’84: Obama will win

Wouldn’t be a bit surprised…goes against common sense, but there again, so did this failed “community organizer” getting elected to anything at any time in the past.

Dr. ZhivBlago on August 30, 2011 at 5:07 PM

LOL! Allan Lichtman? Seriously?

Google “Allan Lichtman” and “arrested”. The guy is a joke. He ran in the Democratic primary for the Maryland Senate seat as a far-left progressive and got slaughtered.

Norwegian on August 30, 2011 at 5:07 PM

As he failed to predict Carter’s re-election so will he fail at picking the second Carter’s re-election.

clement on August 30, 2011 at 5:07 PM

1. No contested primary – Currently 25% of dems don’t want him to run again
2. Incumbency – he was unknown last time, incumbency will hurt him now
3. No third-party candidate – yet. Huntsman will pull votes from him though.
4. Major domestic-policy changes in his first term – Obamacare will be ruled unconstitutional about 3 months before the election
5. No social unrest – wha?
6. No major scandals – wha? fast and furious?
7. No major foreign-policy failures – the guy takes credit for the Arab spring and a month later its one of his headwinds.
8. Major foreign-policy achievements in his first term (killing Bin Laden) – okay, he did that. Who wouldn’t have?
9. Little charisma by his likely opponent – compared to him that is a very low bar isn’t it?

DanMan on August 30, 2011 at 5:08 PM

Working for the president are several of Lichtman’s keys, tops among them incumbency and the scandal-free nature of his administration.

Walkergate, Pigford, Fundraising…

Chip on August 30, 2011 at 5:08 PM

I’ve called ‘em correctly since 1984, and I’m certainly no genius (as my family and friends can attest). I’m just a news hound who watches trends.

This coming election? Too soon to guess. My Magic 8-ball says Come Back Later.

troyriser_gopftw on August 30, 2011 at 5:08 PM

1. No contested primary
2. Incumbency
3. No third-party candidate
4. Major domestic-policy changes in his first term
5. No social unrest
6. No major scandals
7. No major foreign-policy failures
8. Major foreign-policy achievements in his first term (killing Bin Laden)
9. Little charisma by his likely opponent

BS.

I’ll grant you #’s 2 and 3.

4. Major domestic-policy changes in his first term – true, AND they’re widely hated. *BZZZT*

5. No social unrest – lol, um, what? *BZZZT*

6. No major scandals – ‘gunwalker’ anyone? Besides, do this fellow’s “keys” take into account that with the mainstream media, no Democrat incumbent would *ever* have this key work against them? *BZZZT*

7. No major foreign-policy failures – you mean like Afghanistan spinning out of control, the undeclared war in Libya, much of the ME continuing to disintegrate and succumb to more hard-line Islamists – all after Obama’s speaking tour over there? By the way, how do our major/historical allies feel about us compared to 3 years ago? *BZZZT*

8. Major foreign-policy achievements in his first term (killing Bin Laden) – sorry, this doesn’t count as a “foreign policy achievement”; while a good thing, how’d Pakistan and other ME countries feel about it? (see #7 above) *BZZZT*

9. Little charisma by his likely opponent – wow, to whom is he referring? Doesn’t he know that TPaw is out of the race? (sorry had to be done). By scoring this for Obama, it’s clear this fellow is a Democrat if he thinks Bachmann, Palin, Perry et al have ‘little charisma’, lol – seriously? *BZZZT*

Midas on August 30, 2011 at 5:08 PM

Pffffttttt! nice try allahp

ted c on August 30, 2011 at 5:09 PM

The GOP wins three categories:

1. The incumbent’s party lost seats in the last House election
2. The long-term economy looks poor
3. Little charisma by the incumbent

Of course, these are weighted 90% of total.

We will have total victory.

faraway on August 30, 2011 at 5:09 PM

Here are the names of those R’s he have gotten right:

1) George HW Bush

2) George W Bush

Amazing!

Notice a pattern there?

ajacksonian on August 30, 2011 at 5:09 PM

5. No social unrest – 17% of unemployed Americans beg to differ.
6. No major scandals – Really? Arming drug cartels is not a major scandal?
9. Little charisma by his likely opponent – I think Perry is charismatic

El_Terrible on August 30, 2011 at 5:09 PM

His unmentioned key. Obama has ACORN, and if anyone knows how to steal elections, it’s ACORN!!!

capejasmine on August 30, 2011 at 5:09 PM

His definitions are pretty subjective, so cheer up, Allah.

If you don’t count Obamacare, Porkulus, Waivers, The Tea Party, Fast and Furious, and even Michelle’s Guitar as scandals, you aren’t paying attention.

PattyJ on August 30, 2011 at 5:10 PM

These “keys” are a subjective load of garbage. There is a major issue with, “4. Major domestic-policy changes in his first term” when people HATE the domestic-policy changes.

If a president resided over the repeal of Social Security that would count as a major domestic-policy change, right? Well that is what ObamaCare is like.

NotCoach on August 30, 2011 at 5:10 PM

Wow, a whopping 7 election cycles (data points) shows us how to predict the future voting pattern of 150 million people. Seriously, who falls for this BS?

David in ATL on August 30, 2011 at 5:10 PM

The ONLY way Obama wins again is via election FRAUD.

bridgetown on August 30, 2011 at 5:10 PM

John the Libertarian on August 30, 2011 at 5:06 PM

JTL, you make some great points but the media has to report that stuff. How many of those do you think the public’s already forgotten about or just doesn’t care?

hawkdriver on August 30, 2011 at 5:10 PM

Rick Perry will be our next President, and it won’t even be close. The Obama’s will leave office and fade into the sunset, forever to be known as losers and takers. Take it to the bank.

Keemo on August 30, 2011 at 5:10 PM

1. No contested primary – should be TBD
2. Incumbency
3. No third-party candidate - TBD
4. Major domestic-policy changes in his first term - very unpopular ones
5. No social unrest - TBD (cf Wisconsin)
6. No major scandals - TBD (does the MSM have to cover them?)
7. No major foreign-policy failures - questionable
8. Major foreign-policy achievements in his first term (killing Bin Laden)- questionable whether major enough
9. Little charisma by his likely opponent - TBD

Missy on August 30, 2011 at 5:10 PM

Some of these ‘Keys’ don’t seem germane to the mood of the electorate (probably) for 2012. In fact, several of them seem to be applied backwards. For example, Key #4 assumes that major legislation enacted in the first term was either highly necessary (and therefore mandated by the election of the President) and/or the legislation was highly popular. The signature legislation was, of course, Obamacare, but also Dodd-Frank. They are both highly unpopular, and neither was at all necessary. And the electorate PROVED this with an astonishing absolute rout of those policies in the 2010 elections. None of Lichtmans ‘Keys’ take into account that a first-termer’s major legislation was actually ‘put over’ on the electorate.

This election is much more like 1980 than in any of the subsequent seven elections. How do the ‘Key’s stack up to that election retroactively?

JonPrichard on August 30, 2011 at 5:10 PM

Working for the president are several of Lichtman’s keys, tops among them incumbency and the scandal-free nature of his administration…

Scandal free? According to who? Oh, this guy. Yeah, whatever.

JellyToast on August 30, 2011 at 5:11 PM

Doughboy on August 30, 2011 at 5:05 PM

sympatico Doughboy

DanMan on August 30, 2011 at 5:12 PM

from his wiki entry

On September 28, 2005, Lichtman formally announced his candidacy for the United States Senate from Maryland. He ran as a progressive, opposing the War in Iraq and calling for an immediate and safe withdrawal of U.S. troops.

i.e. he ran to the left of Ben Cardin.

ok, having said that the guy is of the Left, anyone who under-estimates barry is a fool. Rs have to get lucky and shrewd. They can win, but they have to keep their normal propensity to self district in check

r keller on August 30, 2011 at 5:12 PM

1. No contested primary-Could still happen
2. Incumbency-may be a bad thing this time
3. No third-party candidate-still possible
4. Major domestic-policy changes in his first term-obamacare
5. No social unrest-we’ll see
6. No major scandals-Fast & Furious
7. No major foreign-policy failures-Muslin Brotherhood
8. Major foreign-policy achievements in his first term (killing Bin Laden)-no bounce
9. Little charisma by his likely opponent-There is a grandma up in AK with more charisma in her baby toe than the entire dem party

ConservativePartyNow on August 30, 2011 at 5:12 PM

Wow, a whopping 7 election cycles (data points) shows us how to predict the future voting pattern of 150 million people. Seriously, who falls for this BS?

David in ATL on August 30, 2011 at 5:10 PM

IIRC Lichtman came up with this in 1984 and says he’s retroactively applied it to every single US presidential election and it holds up. Not sure I buy that.

Missy on August 30, 2011 at 5:12 PM

I think 4-9 are iffy at best.

4. Deep dissatisfaction with HCR and spending
5. Above led to Tea Party – a restless group, if not classical “unrest”
6. Yet. “Fast and Furious” is simmering as we speak – Acting head of ATF moved to make-work cubicle at DOJ just today.
7. How many little failures add up to 1 major one? Gitmo, renditions, tribunals, etc… Don’t forget – schizophrenic middle east policy re: Egypt vs. Syria. Not to mention shabby treatment of Israel and Great Britain.
8. Killing Bin Laden, while splashy, isn’t a major foreign policy achievement. If Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya side with angels, then sure.
9. Now THAT’s too early to tell. All of the current GOP candidates beat the low levels of McCain or Dole already (yes, even Romney by a hair), so that at least needs to be in the undecided column with the economy.

It’s almost as if he is trying to wishcast this by leaving the economy one out, but leaving the “charisma” one in.

JeffWeimer on August 30, 2011 at 5:14 PM

So the Fast and Furious scandal is going away?

Are we really sure there is not Primary challange in the brewing?

And the Tea Party is social unrest. If it is not social unrest what is it?

Obama’s foreign policy is a complete failure. We are less repected everywhere, in fact Obama has made us a laughing stock.

Killing bin Laden was fine. But how is that a major achievement for Obama? He was golfing. He kept Bush’s plan in place, that success goes to Bush.

I don’t think the left has a real good grasp of the depth of Obama’s failure in all these areas.

If charisma means a canidate is vomit inducing then I guess Perry has charisma.

Obama will win if Perry runs against him. A good ole boy is not beating the first black President. Period. Not going to happen, not in the United States of America. A southern speaking slick car salesman with Perry’s mannerisms will keep Obama in the Whitehouse.

The type of charisma matters. Making 60% of voters sick to their stomachs is the wrong kind of charisma.

An incumbant, that embodies social progress will win against a step back in human evolution that is represented by Rick Perry.

petunia on August 30, 2011 at 5:14 PM

It is a historic Presidency

faraway on August 30, 2011 at 5:14 PM

… and another thing…

GOP destroyed the Dems in 2010; what has changed that would signal that 2012 won’t be a continuance of that rout at the ballot box? If anything, things are getting *worse*, are they not?

The GOP can certainly shoot themselves in the foot, don’t get me wrong – but that’s about all that can save Obama at this point. Well, and some good old fashioned election fraud.

Midas on August 30, 2011 at 5:14 PM

By my account, obama loses in a landslide

ConservativePartyNow on August 30, 2011 at 5:14 PM

the scandal-free nature of his administration

Huh? F&F is exploding by the day.

1. No contested primary

Which could easily change with 27% of Dems looking for a new guy.

3. No third-party candidate

WAY too early to tell.

4. Major domestic-policy changes in his first term

Most of them so unpopular that Dems were tossed from power in the House and in typically blue states last year.

9. Little charisma by his likely opponent

As judged by whom? Who is his likely opponent? No one knows at this point.

Especially since, surreally, he’s counting the stimulus, which the public reviles, and ObamaCare, about which the public is deeply suspicious, as a point in Obama’s favor because they are, after all, major “changes” to American domestic policy. By that standard, even the dumbest, most hated piece of legislation should be treated as an asset to a presidential campaign so long as it’s significant enough to constitute “major change.”

Exactly.

amerpundit on August 30, 2011 at 5:14 PM

Gunwalker didn’t have legs (pun intended) until today. The firing of Melson was about the dumbest thing Holder could have done. It is going to blow up as a major scandal.

Will this prediction model be massaged when it is a scandal and we double-dip just so he can keep his 7-0 run? Just askin…

JAM on August 30, 2011 at 5:14 PM

1984 – 2008 encompasses 7 elections. If you used a coin you would get it right 1/128 times (2^7 = 128). With a little bit of political knowledge, quite a few of those are very clear and easy to predict. Really, the only good picks by this guy may have been Clinton in 1992 and Bush in 2000. At most I see only 3 sort of hard to predict elections (1988 (maybe?), 1992, 2000), which puts your coin flip odds at 12.5 – 25%.

Considering there are about 3928 political prognosticators out there, it is a truly unremarkable that someone has gotten them all right, especially since many were easy to predict. And his rules or point or whatever he’s going by are as arbitrary as they are meaningless.

QED

Who gives a flying *bleep*?

strictnein on August 30, 2011 at 5:15 PM

“elections expert”…?

d1carter on August 30, 2011 at 5:16 PM

Well, let’s make some history.

hawkdriver on August 30, 2011 at 5:02 PM

I’m for that!

katy the mean old lady on August 30, 2011 at 5:16 PM

No reported scandals due to media in his azz and Holder being his front thug.

Schadenfreude on August 30, 2011 at 5:16 PM

If you don’t count Obamacare, Porkulus, Waivers, The Tea Party, Fast and Furious, and even Michelle’s Guitar as scandals, you aren’t paying attention.

PattyJ on August 30, 2011 at 5:10 PM

Not to mention Michelle’s multiple vacations funded by millions of taxpayer dollars, all of the rave parties at the WH, and the countless other ‘let them eat cake’ moments both the Obama’s seem to continue to throw down…

Midas on August 30, 2011 at 5:16 PM

I think he’s right. The GOP, as it has been for the last 3 or 4 years or even more, is more interested in cannibalism.

ddrintn on August 30, 2011 at 5:16 PM

In which case, how can Lichtman seriously say, “I don’t see how Obama can lose”? Especially since, surreally, he’s counting the stimulus, which the public reviles, and ObamaCare, about which the public is deeply suspicious, as a point in Obama’s favor because they are, after all, major “changes” to American domestic policy.

How can he predict the outcome a election over a year away?

How long can they keep a Fast and Furious lid on Walkergate and his other scandals?

8. Major foreign-policy achievements in his first term (killing Bin Laden)

Should be singular – he can only order other to get Bin Laden once.

Chip on August 30, 2011 at 5:16 PM

Eeyore strikes again. Seriously AP, are you that bummed about the Irene flameout?

I guess scandals that are ignored by the press don’t count, then.
Vashta.Nerada on August 30, 2011 at 4:57 PM

Doughboy on August 30, 2011 at 5:05

These!

conservative pilgrim on August 30, 2011 at 5:16 PM

I see at least 5 things that can go against him and some are very likely. Lichtman left himself plenty time to move his keys around does he always “predict” this early?

cartooner on August 30, 2011 at 5:17 PM

and the scandal-free nature of his administration.

ZOMG Lichtman is crr6!!!

fossten on August 30, 2011 at 5:17 PM

How does his failure to close Gitmo not count as a major foreign policy failure? It was one of the biggest foreign policy goals set during his campaign, he issued an executive order to have it closed within a year on his first or second day in office and he failed to close it. It was one of his first actions (if not the first) of his presidency.

Many of his other achievements/failures can be subjective depending upon where you stand, but I’d say the one, most clearly defined (by him) goals failed by his own measure. Why doesn’t that count? It does not get much more cut and dry than that.

Fezzik on August 30, 2011 at 5:17 PM

So the Fast and Furious scandal is going away?

petunia on August 30, 2011 at 5:14 PM

I’ll bet not even 10% of adults have ever heard of it.

ddrintn on August 30, 2011 at 5:17 PM

Something else that is absolutely wonderful (and laugh out loud hilarious) is that their subjective nature means that Lichtman can never be wrong. If Obama loses it is quite simple to reevaluate his keys and tell us what he “missed”.

NotCoach on August 30, 2011 at 5:18 PM

Elections expert who’s called every presidential race since ’84

He had a 50/50 of guessing correctly in 7 elections. This genius needed a formula for that?

5. [Media not covering] social unrest
6. [Media not covering] major scandals
7. [Media ignoring] foreign-policy failures

That’s what he really means.

mudskipper on August 30, 2011 at 5:18 PM

Bumper sticker “America voting for Obama is like a chicken voting for Col. Sanders”.

Schadenfreude on August 30, 2011 at 5:19 PM

I remember a few other bellweathers that were supposed to be immutable laws of nature when it came to electoral politics.

No one wins unless they win their parties primary in New Hampshire.
No one wins unless they win Illinois in the general election.

DJ Rick on August 30, 2011 at 5:19 PM

Sure Obama could win, but I don’t think he can use these “keys “in this election. This Presidency is like no other in History. He was a lowly 1 term Senator with no experience at all, and no paper trail. No one knew anything about him. Now we know, and it ain’t pretty. I’m usually as big an Eeyore as Allah, but not this time… I just don’t see it…

sandee on August 30, 2011 at 5:19 PM

7. No major foreign-policy failures-Muslin Brotherhood
8. Major foreign-policy achievements in his first term (killing Bin Laden)-no bounce
9. Little charisma by his likely opponent-There is a grandma up in AK with more charisma in her baby toe than the entire dem party

ConservativePartyNow on August 30, 2011 at 5:12 PM

I know what you meant…Muslim…right?

But “Muslin” is very, very funny.

(Yeah. I know. I’m a racist. So, sue me.)

GrannyDee on August 30, 2011 at 5:19 PM

Streaks are made to be broken.

Christien on August 30, 2011 at 5:20 PM

Oh, and in addition to GITMO, wasn’t his goal to have terrorists tried in civilian courts also a failure? He planned to do it, and it never happened. How is that not a major foreign policy failure?

Fezzik on August 30, 2011 at 5:21 PM

Obama wins…..America loses.

That friggin simple.

PappyD61 on August 30, 2011 at 5:02 PM

That would make a fine bumper sticker…

WhoU4 on August 30, 2011 at 5:21 PM

There is more social unrest now than there has been since the late 1960s.

humdinger on August 30, 2011 at 5:21 PM

Makes sense.

albill on August 30, 2011 at 5:21 PM

This election is much more like 1980 than in any of the subsequent seven elections. How do the ‘Key’s stack up to that election retroactively?

JonPrichard on August 30, 2011 at 5:10 PM

Excellent point. He must have completely missed that Carter deal huh? And Clinton got in on the third party key, not hard to predict that one once it developed.

DanMan on August 30, 2011 at 5:21 PM

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