Obama hits new low and high in Gallup daily tracking poll

posted at 9:25 am on August 29, 2011 by Ed Morrissey

We got a few tweets and e-mails about Gallup’s daily tracking poll results posted yesterday, but didn’t get around to commenting on it. Barack Obama’s approval rating dropped three points in a single day while his disapproval rating jumped up four, giving him the worst rating of his presidency at 38/55. Both numbers are records for Obama’s presidency in the Gallup series.

Daily tracking polls are volatile, which is why Gallup and Rasmussen use three-day calculations for their numbers. A seven-point swing in the gap is still an unusually large swing, and it’s worth noting that Rasmussen didn’t track the same response. Yesterday’s tracking poll at Rasmussen had Obama underwater at 46/54, the difference mainly being undecideds. However, that’s a point better for Obama than Saturday’s 45/54, and five points better than Friday’s 43/56.

Since these polls operate in three-day cycles, the shift must have come from a relatively positive result from Gallup’s survey calls on Wednesday dropping out of the calculation, replaced by a horrendous result from Saturday’s calls. Obama didn’t do much over Friday and Saturday to create a big shift, as far as I can recall. The only explanations for the dramatic difference would be (a) Gallup surveyed a sample that was uniquely unhappy with Obama, (b) weekend respondents create a different response profile, or (c) Obama’s handling of Hurricane Irene annoyed respondents. Option (b) has certainly been argued, but argued that they’re more favorable to Democrats. Option (c) would be possible, but the Irene bust didn’t become clear until Sunday.

Given that Rasmussen isn’t picking up on a dramatic popular shift in the same tracking poll, I’m going to guess (a). We’ll know more when we see the results from both tracking polls over the next few days.

Blowback

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No bounce from Irene?

/and get your mind out of the gutter

Ward Cleaver on August 29, 2011 at 9:27 AM

30 percenters.

Finally.

BobMbx on August 29, 2011 at 9:28 AM

Obama reminds of the guy int he row boat, the boat springs a leak, so he makes another hole so the water can drain out…

right2bright on August 29, 2011 at 9:28 AM

Media begging for a natural disaster.

SouthernGent on August 29, 2011 at 9:29 AM

Fresh from Rasmussen today…

Overall, 45% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president’s performance. Fifty-five percent (55%) at least somewhat disapprove.

SouthernGent on August 29, 2011 at 9:30 AM

Yesterday’s tracking poll at Rasmussen had Obama underwater at 46/54, the difference mainly being undecideds.

It’s still amazing to me that Rasmussen has essentially had Obama averaging in the mid-40s for a year and a half now. That dude polls likely voters, whereas Gallup is surveying adults. You’d think the results would be reversed.

46% scares the crap out of me. It’s weak, but depending on the breakdown by states(which granted, looks terrible for Obama right now), it could be enough for him to barely squeak by and win reelection.

Doughboy on August 29, 2011 at 9:31 AM

There’s no bad publicity that a good campaign fundraiser can’t fix.

shick on August 29, 2011 at 9:31 AM

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politics/2016045445_apusappollobama.html?syndication=rss

More than 6 in 10 white voters who did not graduate say the president deserves to be voted from office, while 53 percent of white college graduates say as much.

-Women no longer are a bright spot for Obama.

At the 100-day mark of his presidency, they gave him significantly higher approval ratings than did men, 68 percent to 60 percent. That’s since fallen dramatically.

In the latest AP-GfK survey, less than half of all women and less than half of all men approve of the job Obama is doing. Just 50 percent of women said Obama deserves re-election.

The share of liberals who say “strong leader” describes Obama “very well” has fallen from 53 percent to 29 percent in the aftermath of the debt-ceiling debate.

“Sometimes he needs to put his foot down and not be the nice guy,” said Democrat Kathleen Salak, 44, of Omaha, Neb.

William Amos on August 29, 2011 at 9:32 AM

We’ll have a day like this again……..we HOPE.

August 29, 2008

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WKByFPy7-RU&playnext=1&list=PLA4D4185B884902F4

Let’s HOPE Obama hasn’t seen his lowest.

PappyD61 on August 29, 2011 at 9:32 AM

30 percenters.

Finally.

BobMbx on August 29, 2011 at 9:28 AM

Yes, considering the lowest he could ever possibly get is around 24%, he has only 14% above the very worst showing he could possibly make.
No one should ever forget, unlike any other candidate ever int he history of national elections, he has a built in 14% that will never forsake him, no matter what he does, he will always have at least 14%.
Than add that 10% of the people are just crazy, truthers, we didn’t land on the moon, Elvis is alive, the weirdos of life.
This is amazingly low, so low it is hard to believe…

right2bright on August 29, 2011 at 9:32 AM

Ed, i expect the cat pic in the next few days :)

cmsinaz on August 29, 2011 at 9:33 AM

Obviously there is some racism going on here…

txmomof6 on August 29, 2011 at 9:33 AM

There’s no bad publicity that a good campaign fundraiser can’t fix.

shick on August 29, 2011 at 9:31 AM

Anything under 47% and he can’t be elected…he has a long way to go.
He can shore up his base…but good luck on the independents…

right2bright on August 29, 2011 at 9:34 AM

And I don’t think Irene is going to help him. he showed up when the storm was already here as opposed to going out and helping people put up plywood to cover windows

ConservativePartyNow on August 29, 2011 at 9:36 AM

PappyD61 on August 29, 2011 at 9:32 AM
Happy Anniversary SP!

txmomof6 on August 29, 2011 at 9:37 AM

Enough people are waking up and starting to realize that we need a LEADER to lead this country. Obama couldn’t lead a pedophile to an elementary school.

viviliberoomuori on August 29, 2011 at 9:38 AM

Disapprove is the same for both polls. Odd that approve is so far off. Maybe the way the question is asked by the pollsters?

angryed on August 29, 2011 at 9:41 AM

If you check Gallup’s polling for Obama for a year, you will find somewhat similar results for him during August of last year. Then, he returns to the usual polling in the 40′s.

I hope the downward trend continues but I’m afraid it might be a result of the unpopularity his extravagant August vacations.

HellCat on August 29, 2011 at 9:44 AM

I think he’s being a dick.

Jaibones on August 29, 2011 at 9:47 AM

There has been a reversal, of sorts, between Gallup and Rasmussen in the last six months with Gallup routinely lower than Rasmussen; does anyone know why?

RedSoxNation on August 29, 2011 at 9:49 AM

Nice of you to give Osama Obama an “out,” Ed. I guess we just have to be understanding and tolerant of the enemy.

Could it perhaps be that the public is finally tiring of the sick little twerp they stupidly put into office? No, perhaps this poll just got hold of a few malcontents and skewed the numbers….

I’m just sorry it has taken people the better part of three years to figure out that they elected a SCoaMF. Better late than never, I guess.

MrScribbler on August 29, 2011 at 9:49 AM

A Trump 3rd party run is the only thing that will save him now.

faraway on August 29, 2011 at 9:50 AM

No bounce from Irene?
/and get your mind out of the gutter
Ward Cleaver on August 29, 2011 at 9:27 AM

Lord, I apologize…But that’s funny; I don’t care who you are???

RedSoxNation on August 29, 2011 at 9:52 AM

Txmom, tingles thinks so for sure

cmsinaz on August 29, 2011 at 9:52 AM

Doughboy on August 29, 2011 at 9:31 AM

I doubt Obama will ever get under the 38-42 percent re-elected level, because there are still a lot of true believers out there. But we’re also not sure if the “Bradley Effect” will return in 2012.

Moderates voted for Obama in 2008 because they believed the media hype that if we elected the first African-American president, everyone but hard-hearted conservatives would be living in Shngra-La right now. Three years down the line, it hasn’t exactly played out that way, but the swing voters — especially in Blue States or Blue areas of Red States — are the ones still most likely to be worried about peers thinking they’re racist because they’ve fallen out of love with Obama.

As a result, what they say to the pollsters might not be what they do in the voting booth, if conditions are the same or worse a year from now (and on the more generic question about the economy Obama’s about 15-20 percent lower on the approval scale than his re-elect. It’s going to take a ton of demonization of the eventual GOP nominee to get swing voters to walk into the booth next November and basically say things have gone to hell in a handbasket, but I’m still going to vote for the peachy-keen guy who made it all possible).

jon1979 on August 29, 2011 at 9:55 AM

Still plenty of room to go down… That direction is “par for the course” with these folks in the White House…

Khun Joe on August 29, 2011 at 9:59 AM

Obama reminds of the guy in the row boat, the boat springs a leak, so he makes another hole so the water can drain out…

…And then he starts a fire in the boat hoping to dry everything out…

albill on August 29, 2011 at 10:02 AM

I think he’s being a dick.

Jaibones on August 29, 2011 at 9:47 AM

Jaibones that is just plain lazy. And I’m kind of tired after the weekend so it suits me just fine.

DanMan on August 29, 2011 at 10:03 AM

“Barack Obama’s approval rating dropped three points in a single day while his disapproval rating jumped up four, giving him the worst rating of his presidency at 38/55.”

..I thought he’d hit 38% a couple of days before, Ed. Anyway, ain’t complaining.

The War Planner on August 29, 2011 at 10:07 AM

“If these poll numbers drop any faster, you’ll hear a sonic boom”

faraway on August 29, 2011 at 10:15 AM

Irene has really caused some damage…

No mention of this poll in ABC, CBS, NYT, NBC, CNN websites

faraway on August 29, 2011 at 10:20 AM

I guess this means Generic Republican will kick Obama’s ass in 2012. I forget, how is Generic doing in his/her quest for the Republican nomination?

Really Right on August 29, 2011 at 10:34 AM

I won’t feel safe until he is gone in November 2012. There are too many people in this country who want to believe fairy tales and are unwilling to face the fact that we are unbelievably broke.

xrayiiis on August 29, 2011 at 10:46 AM

Guess those polled didn’t get to look at Barry IN COMMAND at FEMA, feverishly issuing orders left and right, keeping Irene at bay while he personally saved MILLIONS of lives.

GarandFan on August 29, 2011 at 10:47 AM

Hurricane Irene was supposed to be the Anointed One’s finest hour, proving he is so much better than was Bush during Katrina. Unfortunately for the president (fortunately for the rest of us), Irene was no Katrina. There is no joy in mudville tonight.

Dhuka on August 29, 2011 at 11:20 AM

Come on, as the hurricane reared up, Obama was seen golfing and vacationing. That annoyed the peeps, then when he patronized the American people by ending his holiday one day early because of the hurricane, he really annoyed those same people.

Obama’s obvious faux concern is far more offensive to those on the fence about him than his normal arrogance, IMHO.

If these same people make a final decision that Obama is not only a failure but a jerk, he is done. His approval rating has survived hitting the 30′s for a long time due to people liking him personally. If that changes, 2012 will be a landslide victory for the GOP.

alecj on August 29, 2011 at 11:22 AM

Ed, the ridicule received by the Yahoo/AP piece “Command Center Obama” (with photo) is a companion poll to these. The American people have woken up to the empty suit / prima donna.

dogsoldier on August 29, 2011 at 11:34 AM

Ed, the ridicule received by the Yahoo/AP piece “Command Center Obama” (with photo) is a companion poll to these. The American people have woken up to the empty suit / prima donna.

dogsoldier on August 29, 2011 at 11:34 AM

Ooh! Ooh! I want to see this. Do you happen to have a link handy?

Mary in LA on August 29, 2011 at 1:14 PM

I guess maybe he should be given a few props for Hurricane Michelle. I’m sure she wasn’t thrilled leaving her vacation early.

capejasmine on August 29, 2011 at 1:23 PM

I bet this is what it is like working with Obama. President Kruger.

Mr_Magoo on August 29, 2011 at 2:06 PM

or (c) Obama’s handling of Hurricane Irene annoyed respondents.

Rumor control has it that the Obama’s once again used multiple aircraft to leave Maratha’s Vineyard.

The Obamas took his & hers jets to get to their summer vacation destination at Martha’s Vineyard, costing the taxpayers thousands of dollars .
Now, with Hurricane Irene bearing down on the East Coast, President Obama plans to cut his vacation short and leave Friday evening for Washington. Mrs. Obama, however, will take her own flight out on Saturday with their two daughters, Malia & Sasha.

Is there a reason why — yet again — the Obamas could not share a flight on the world’s most exclusive private jet and instead needed separate travel arrangements?

Could also be a reaction to the over hype of Great sacrifice of having to end his vacation early, going home Friday night as opposed to Saturday afternoon.

DSchoen on August 29, 2011 at 5:03 PM

Oh thank you – what a absolutely lovely thoughtful gift!
Happy Birthday to me :)

wubu on August 29, 2011 at 5:04 PM

Ed, the ridicule received by the Yahoo/AP piece “Command Center Obama” (with photo) is a companion poll to these. The American people have woken up to the empty suit / prima donna.

dogsoldier on August 29, 2011 at 11:34 AM