Obama at 37% approval, re-elect in Florida

posted at 9:25 am on August 24, 2011 by Ed Morrissey

Is it too early to say that Barack Obama has lost Florida?  Not according to a new survey from Magellan Strategies, which finds the incumbent sharply under water in all key election categories.  His job approval and re-elect numbers are an identical 37/57, while his “image rating” — favorability — is almost as bad:

Currently, the President’s image rating is upside down with 40% of respondents having a favorable opinion of him, and 55% having an unfavorable opinion. Looking at responses among key voter subgroups, 52% of women, 53% of independents, 67% of Hispanics, and 58% of seniors have an unfavorable opinion of the President. Among voters aged 18 to 29, a vital voter subgroup in Barack Obama’s 2008 victory, 39% have a favorable image of him and 49% have an unfavorable image of him.

Among all respondents, only 37% approve of the job the President is doing and 57% disapprove of the job he is doing. Again looking at key voter subgroups, 53% of women, 56% of independents, 72% of Hispanics and 59% of seniors disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing. The most alarming number for the President and his election team is that 26% of Democrats disapprove of the job he is doing. Among voters aged 18 to 29, 48% approve of the job he is doing and 52% disapprove of thejob he is doing.

Among all respondents, 37% think Barack Obama deserves re‐election and 57% think he does not deserve re‐election. Among women voters, 55% do not think the President deserves re‐election. Among other key voting subgroups, 55% of independents, 72% of Hispanics, 60% of seniors, and 27% of Democrats think the President does not deserve re‐election. Among voters aged 18 to 29, 38% think Barack Obama deserves re‐election and 50% think he does not deserve re‐election.

Obama won Florida in 2008 by three points over John McCain in a close-fought battle.  Turnout in that election favored Democrats by three points, 37/34/29.  In 2010, as Republicans rebounded in the Tea Party midterms, the turnout evened up at 36/36/29.  In the Magellan sample, Democrats have a three-point edge at 42/39/19, with independents obviously undersampled.  That model assumes Democrats turn out in stronger numbers in 2012 than they did in 2008, which seems highly unlikely for an incumbent with 37/57 re-elect and 40/55 favorability numbers.

If he’s hoping for help with independents, he can forget it.  The underrepresentation of independents in this survey probably helped Obama with these numbers rather than hurt him.  His favorability among indies is 35/53, worse than the overall number.  Obama’s job approval among indies is 37/56, just about the same as the overall number.

Even with the somewhat-friendly sampling, Obama loses all three head-to-head matchups posed by Magellan.  Mitt Romney beats Obama by ten points, 49/39, and Rick Perry beats him by 7 at 46/39.  Obama only gets into the 40s against Michele Bachmann, who still edges him by a single point, 43/42.  Romney wins an eleven-point margin among the undersampled independents (44/33) and Perry wins that category by 7 (38/31).  Only Bachmann loses the independent vote 33/37 to Obama.  Romney is the only Republican to win both men and women (Perry gets edged by a single point, Bachmann down 7), but all three win the senior vote — and all three win Hispanic voters by landslide margins.

When an incumbent president can’t get above 39% against two named primary candidates of the opposition party, it’s a sure sign of impending doom in that state.  Florida’s 29 electoral votes seem destined to go to Republicans.

Update: I wrote “Perry” twice in the analysis of independents; the first reference should have been to Romney.  I’ve corrected it.

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So, to use a golf analogy, King Putt is in the bunkers.

parteagirl on August 24, 2011 at 9:29 AM

Get ready for a few million worth of Mediscare ads.

Nelson should be worried with Obama on the ticket.

artist on August 24, 2011 at 9:30 AM

As gratifying as it is to see some sort of vindication (or at least a head-from-rectum displacement) as others finally are figuring out what we’ve known since before the election, I really am worried that if his numbers tank that horribly that his ego might make him drop out instead of risk losing giving us a more difficult Dem to run against than what should be a slam dunk.

Whew! That was a long sentance.

DrAllecon on August 24, 2011 at 9:30 AM

27% dems weaned off the kool-aid apparently

cmsinaz on August 24, 2011 at 9:31 AM

If so, Rubio is unneeded on the national ticket. Perry should pick Guiliani to temper the electorate’s unwarranted sense that he is extreme.

honsy on August 24, 2011 at 9:32 AM

Boy do things get a lot easier if we can put FLA in our column from the git-go.

JohnGalt23 on August 24, 2011 at 9:32 AM

Among other key voting subgroups, 55% of independents, 72% of Hispanics, 60% of seniors, and 27% of Democrats think the President does not deserve re‐election.

There’s something different about Texas and Florida Hispanics. Much more Conservative.

Marcus on August 24, 2011 at 9:33 AM

I think Rubio should run against Sen. Nelson in 2012. He can hold both seats! ;)

honsy on August 24, 2011 at 9:33 AM

If so, Rubio is unneeded on the national ticket. Perry should pick Guiliani to temper the electorate’s unwarranted sense that he is extreme.

honsy on August 24, 2011 at 9:32 AM

Stop.

Rick Perry, should he get the nod, should choose Mitch Daniels or John Kasich as his running mate.

JohnGalt23 on August 24, 2011 at 9:33 AM

Should make for some interesting campaign ads down there.

“The GOP wants old people to DIE! They will kill OLD PEOPLE!”

Bishop on August 24, 2011 at 9:35 AM

Romney is the only Republican to win both men and women (Perry gets edged by a single point, Bachmann down 7), but all three win the senior vote — and all three win Hispanic voters by landslide margins.

See? We don’t need to play identity politics by placing Rubio on the ticket as VP. Leave him in the Senate where he’ll be far more useful. Regardless, Obama is toast. If he loses Florida, he’ll likely lose the rest of the Bush 2004 states and that means he can’t get to 270 electoral votes.

Doughboy on August 24, 2011 at 9:35 AM

See page 3 of poll report for head-to-heads vs. Obama: Romney +10, Perry +7, Bachmann +1.

Sen Nelson also deeply underwater.

Uncledave on August 24, 2011 at 9:38 AM

That removes the argument for Rubio as a deal-sealer. And that’s a good thing. The nominee should focus on the Midwest and West, not Florida.

Winning Colorado, NM, and Nevada, as well as one of Iowa, Michigan, or Wisconsin should seal the deal.

KingGold on August 24, 2011 at 9:38 AM

Stop.

Rick Perry, should he get the nod, should choose Mitch Daniels or John Kasich as his running mate.

JohnGalt23 on August 24, 2011 at 9:33 AM

If Republicans don’t chose a Hispanic in the VP slot, Obama just might. If they do, he just might anyway.

Marcus on August 24, 2011 at 9:39 AM

You all miss one important point–Obama is working on a kick-a$$ jobs bill as we type. That will be a game changer./

cartooner on August 24, 2011 at 9:40 AM

Barack “Jimmy Carter” Obama

Dollayo on August 24, 2011 at 9:41 AM

72% of Hispanics . . . think the President does not deserve re‐election.

Are 28% of Florida’s hispanics Mexican?

Looks like the hispandering that Obama did a few days ago with his new amnesty-by-executive-order scheme isn’t paying off in Florida. He’ll have to come up with something new now. Perhaps a new employer tax credit to businesses that hire Cuban-Americans or Puerto Ricans? (All in the interests of “promoting diversity,” of course, and not just another shameless pander to special interest groups in order to get Bam-Bam re-elected).

AZCoyote on August 24, 2011 at 9:42 AM

When an incumbent president can’t get above 39% against two named primary candidates of the opposition party, it’s a sure sign of impending doom in that state. Florida’s 29 electoral votes seem destined to go to Republicans.

Good. Now, what state is next? PA? Ohio? Indiana? Wisconsin?

For the first two years of his term (I refuse to call this travesty ‘presidential’ in any respect) I wanted BO to resign.

But I have changed my mind. Many think he is too narcissistic to resign, and there are good reasons to believe the Dems will be reluctant to challenge their second black president. I hope they are right.

I want this jerk to run and run hard. I want to see him strike out, whine, complain and really show the nation what he is – especially those who are still in doubt.

I want to see him defeated and humiliated. For the damage he has done with the help of Pelosi and Reid he deserves nothing less.

Cody1991 on August 24, 2011 at 9:43 AM

Please stop with the wishful thinking. There is still PLENTY of time for some major ‘crisis’ to come up swaying enough support to Obummer to make the difference. How much will he really need to cover the distance with union fraud, hanging chads and all the corpses ‘who’ will be registered? We still have a year of HATE to live through…

even if the Republican wins….do you really think he/she will be able to govern in the toxic HATEFUL atmosphere that will be inevitable?

You think the hate towards Bush Hitler was bad? Just wait….

I only wish I had purchased more gold and platinum when I was buying it during the Clinton Regime…few more of those Chinese “tuna cans” would be nice too…

SwabJockey on August 24, 2011 at 9:43 AM

He won’t win FL again and will probably drag Nelson down to defeat. Rubio or Susana Martinez would be great VPs imho.

TimTebowSavesAmerica on August 24, 2011 at 9:45 AM

Winning Colorado, NM, and Nevada, as well as one of Iowa, Michigan, or Wisconsin should seal the deal.

KingGold on August 24, 2011 at 9:38 AM

Ok, I take back what I said. Perry or Mittens will likely take all the Bush 2004 states….but Colorado will be a struggle. They even reelected Michael Bennet last year for chrissakes. It’s expendable if they win all the other Bush states, but it would be a nice insurance policy to have in case Iowa, New Hampshire, or New Mexico are still drunk on kool-aid next November.

Doughboy on August 24, 2011 at 9:45 AM

If Republicans don’t chose a Hispanic in the VP slot, Obama just might. If they do, he just might anyway.

Marcus on August 24, 2011 at 9:39 AM

If we’re going to jump full-bore into identity politics like supporters of certain candidates in this primary are intent on doing, then Rubio’s useless anyway.

Susana Martinez or Brian Sandoval would be better, because they’re of Mexican descent and govern swing states.

KingGold on August 24, 2011 at 9:45 AM

Is it too early to start predicting what will happen if there’s only one demographic that supports Obama and he loses? Conservatives are already pretty accustomed to being called racist but those sensitive Dems and Indies might not be able to handle it.

landshark on August 24, 2011 at 9:46 AM

Obama only gets into the 40s against Michele Bachmann, who still edges him by a single point, 43/42. PerryRomney wins an eleven-point margin among the undersampled independents (44/33) and Perry wins that category by 7 (38/31).

Is this what you meant, Ed?

Patrick S on August 24, 2011 at 9:48 AM

Barack “Jimmy Carter” Obama

Dollayo on August 24, 2011 at 9:41 AM

Ever notice that no matter who you compare President Downgrade to, it always improves their stature?

Chip on August 24, 2011 at 9:49 AM

Currently, the President’s image rating is upside down with 40% of respondents having a favorable opinion of him, and 55% having an unfavorable opinion

Alternate headline: Florida Voters Don’t Care If They’re Called RAAAAAAACIST Anymore.

crazy_legs on August 24, 2011 at 9:50 AM

Are 28% of Florida’s hispanics Mexican?

AZCoyote on August 24, 2011 at 9:42 AM

Yes, and Guatemalan. They started coming here in the 80s for agricultural work and then construction and lawn care.

John Deaux on August 24, 2011 at 9:50 AM

27% dems weaned off the kool-aid apparently
cmsinaz on August 24, 2011 at 9:31 AM

Nah. They just think Obama has become a republican.

Count to 10 on August 24, 2011 at 9:52 AM

there comes a time when the Democrats start asking themselves “to retain power…do we dump him and primary someone else?”.

I think that time has come.

Black Adam on August 24, 2011 at 9:54 AM

Good. Now, what state is next? PA? Ohio? Indiana? Wisconsin?

Cody1991 on August 24, 2011 at 9:43 AM

Ohio and Indiana are already gone. Especially the latter. If I’m not mistaken, he barely won that last time.

As for Pennsylvania, I’ve learned to not put too much stock in the voters in that state. They did come through(barely) for Toomey last year, but the rest of the time, they tend to let us down. That being said, Barry’s poll numbers are horrendous right now. And if he loses Pennsylvania, there’s a very real possibility Wisconsin could go red. Maybe even Michigan. And we could see the networks(well aside from MSDNC) declaring Perry or Mittens(God help us) the winner before the west coast results even come in.

Doughboy on August 24, 2011 at 9:55 AM

You all miss one important point–Obama is working on a kick-a$$ jobs bill as we type. That will be a game changer./

cartooner on August 24, 2011 at 9:40 AM

And if that ain’t bad enough, Debbie Watsername Schultz D-FL, will turn those numbers around.

cartooner on August 24, 2011 at 9:56 AM

Good point count :-)

cmsinaz on August 24, 2011 at 9:56 AM

Rubio was elected on the Tea Party ticket or platform, and instead of throwing out “identity politics” we should be grateful for him. And the guy gets told every day “you know, you’re going to be chosen” and I think his “oh never!” stance is weakening. Nice speech at the Reagan Library yesterday.

Marcus on August 24, 2011 at 9:57 AM

Just wait till Big O gets back from his vacation and unveils his plan…….er, ah, ideas……er, ah, explains it all in a speech in prime time…………..He will won’t he? Well, he’s never before passed up a chance to blabber on and on with his TOTUS.

Herb on August 24, 2011 at 9:57 AM

Cartooner change that to outline :)

cmsinaz on August 24, 2011 at 9:58 AM

I know it is early…but all indications is that he is in a free fall, I can’t see any rehabilitation of his image.
In a few months, the jokes will start being thrown around…President Obama in his last act as president just signed a bill to help extend unemployment benefits to all ex government employees…He issued his last pardon, ‘pardon me for doing such a lousy job’…he asked about unemployment benefits, but the social security number he gave was issued to a Mexican…

right2bright on August 24, 2011 at 9:59 AM

Ok, I take back what I said. Perry or Mittens will likely take all the Bush 2004 states….but Colorado will be a struggle. They even reelected Michael Bennet last year for chrissakes. It’s expendable if they win all the other Bush states, but it would be a nice insurance policy to have in case Iowa, New Hampshire, or New Mexico are still drunk on kool-aid next November.

Doughboy on August 24, 2011 at 9:45 AM

Don’t write them off because of Bennett.

Colorado’s 2010 elections were a clusterf*ck due to the Hickenlooper-Maes-Tancrado three-way race for Governor at the top of the ballot.

teke184 on August 24, 2011 at 10:02 AM

Just wait till Big O gets back from his vacation and unveils his plan…….er, ah, ideas……er, ah, explains it all in a speech in prime time…………..He will won’t he? Well, he’s never before passed up a chance to blabber on and on with his TOTUS.

Herb on August 24, 2011 at 9:57 AM

From NRO on his upcoming ‘outline’ for jobs:

Today’s Questions for the President
August 24, 2011 9:44 A.M.
By Peter Kirsanow

The EPA is in the process of issuing new emissions rules affecting coal-fired power plants, which rules will cause one-fifth of such plants to shut down.

The U.S. imports nearly 65 percent of its oil — more than 4 billion barrels a year at a cost of approximately $440 billion. Imported oil accounts for 62 percent of the U.S. trade deficit. In recognition of those facts, you gave a speech a few months ago about moving the nation toward energy independence. You set a goal of reducing oil imports by one-third over the next decade by “finding and producing more oil at home, and reducing dependence on oil with cleaner alternate fuels and greater efficiency.” Among the alternate fuels you cited was natural gas.
Yet, despite your speech:

You continue to oppose drilling in several regions in Alaska, including ANWR — estimated to hold 10.4 billion barrels of oil.
As reported by Robert Bluey, deepwater oil drilling permits are down 71 percent from their historical average.
Your administration has canceled or stalled the development of oil shale leases in the mountain west.
Shell Oil canceled plans to drill for an estimated 27 billion barrels of oil off the Alaskan coast after the EPA denied a permit.
No new construction of nuclear power plants has begun in 30 years.
As reported by Kevin Mooney, ten oil rigs have left the Gulf of Mexico since you imposed the deepwater drilling moratorium and 8 other planned rigs were moved elsewhere (i.e., the coasts of Africa, South America).
The shut down of coal-fired plants noted above will add tens of billions to energy costs and the Commerce Department estimates tens of thousands of jobs will be lost.

What specific steps has your administration taken to increase, rather than impede, energy produced form oil, gas, coal, and nuclear resources?

Does the jobs plan you expect to release in September seriously address U.S.energy requirements? If not, why should the plan be treated as credible?

Assuming that your jobs plan does contain a significant energy component, will the jobs you expect to be created consist primarily of “green” jobs?

What evidence do you have that these “green” jobs are any more likely to materialize than the 4 million ”shovel-ready” jobs you promised would materialize upon passage of the $814 billion stimulus package?

Cody1991 on August 24, 2011 at 10:03 AM

Colorado’s 2010 elections were a clusterf*ck due to the Hickenlooper-Maes-Tancrado three-way race for Governor at the top of the ballot.

teke184 on August 24, 2011 at 10:02 AM

Which, I might add, was only the second-biggest Tea Party futz-up in that state in 2010.

KingGold on August 24, 2011 at 10:08 AM

This morning I read a post from a 19-year old who connected to a city Facebook page I created. While the language was salted with lots of F-bombs, the message was clear: Obama is destroying the economy. She ranted about Obamacare, mostly, but she was very vocal about the lack of jobs in our community and in Florida.

There were (at last count) 60 comments on the thread, some agreeing, some disagreeing, but for every person who disagreed with her, she backed up what she said with links or proof.

The entire conversation was amazing to me because I was witnessing a younger generation that would otherwise be silent, speak out for what was wrong with Obama’s policies and what they can do about it (at the ballot box).

VibrioCocci on August 24, 2011 at 10:16 AM

sharply underwater

shouldn’t that be “deeply underwater”?

ted c on August 24, 2011 at 10:20 AM

Don’t write them off because of Bennett.

Colorado’s 2010 elections were a clusterf*ck due to the Hickenlooper-Maes-Tancrado three-way race for Governor at the top of the ballot.

teke184 on August 24, 2011 at 10:02 AM

Yeah, I remember that. It definitely had a negative trickle-down effect with voter turnout in the Senate race. But I’m still nervous about that state. It seems like they’re more blue than purple these days and those electoral votes are important. Not crucial, but still important.

Doughboy on August 24, 2011 at 10:21 AM

The entire conversation was amazing to me because I was witnessing a younger generation that would otherwise be silent, speak out for what was wrong with Obama’s policies and what they can do about it (at the ballot box).

VibrioCocci on August 24, 2011 at 10:16 AM

Power of the internet…this will be Obama’s undoing, as much as the MSM is supporting him, it won’t be ever as effective again.

right2bright on August 24, 2011 at 10:35 AM

There’s something different about Texas and Florida Hispanics. Much more Conservative.

Marcus on August 24, 2011 at 9:33 AM

I believe the Hispanic population in FL is heavily Cuban-American, is it not?
I suspect that is not the case in Texas,…might that difference be due to the multigenerational aspect? Haven’t many of the Hispanic Texans been there as long as Caucasians? Probably have the same political views in many cases. Pure speculation on my part.

a capella on August 24, 2011 at 10:39 AM

It won’t be over until the dust settles next Nov. Even then the Won will have almost 2 months to finish the destruction of the country. I hope the Rs have a good one to run against Nelson. This would be a good pickup.

Kissmygrits on August 24, 2011 at 10:44 AM

there comes a time when the Democrats start asking themselves “to retain power…do we dump him and primary someone else?”.

I think that time has come.

Black Adam on August 24, 2011 at 9:54 AM

Did I mention that Evan Bayh was a panel member on Fox News Sunday last week? Just out of the blue. He was doing his best to sound, er,..presidential.

a capella on August 24, 2011 at 10:45 AM

Among all respondents, 37% think Barack Obama deserves re‐election and 57% think he does not deserve re‐election. Among women voters, 55% do not think the President deserves re‐election. Among other key voting subgroups, 55% of independents, 72% of Hispanics, 60% of seniors, and 27% of Democrats think the President does not deserve re‐election.

Florida has a much higher proportion of senior citizens (people who worked up North when they were younger, but retired to Florida to escape winter weather) than most other states. If Obama loses 60% of seniors in Florida, he’s toast.

The Hispanic number is HUGE. A significant proportion of Florida’s Hispanic population is second- or third-generation Cuban-Americans, who are usually pro-business and tend to vote Republican, and strongly supported Marco Rubio for Senate. A 72% non-reelect number among Hispanics must still include a substantial fraction of non-Cuban Hispanics, which means that Obama could be splitting the Hispanic vote in other states, which do not have a high Cuban-American population.

Even more than in the 2000 election, Florida will be a must-win state in the 2012 election, with its 29 electoral votes. Obama can forget about VA, NC, and IN this time around. If Obama loses FL, he would have to win both OH and PA, and hold onto WI and CO to win the Presidency. If the Republican wins FL, he needs EITHER PA or OH, or can still win without OH by winning WI, CO, and one other small swing state, such as NH, IA, or NV.

Exit question: if Obama is in big trouble in Florida, which of our candidates can win Ohio?

Steve Z on August 24, 2011 at 10:53 AM

Those Cubans sure do not like Communists . . . and Obama.

But I’m repeating myself.

WannabeAnglican on August 24, 2011 at 10:54 AM

The only way PBHO can save FL is to dump Plugs and put Crist in the VP slot…

/

Khun Joe on August 24, 2011 at 10:59 AM

My bet is that Obama has a “white guilt factor” bonus in any poll. If he were a “white” man doing and acting in the exact same manner – I would estimate at least a 10% lower approval rate.

Why do you think the left chose such an inexperienced incompetent arrogant man? That is the real racism in this entire game – the use of race by Obama and the left against the deliberately guilt-ridden general population as a truth inhibitor -PC -if you will.

Don L on August 24, 2011 at 11:06 AM

there comes a time when the Democrats start asking themselves “to retain power…do we dump him and primary someone else?”.

I think that time has come.

Black Adam on August 24, 2011 at 9:54 AM

Did I mention that Evan Bayh was a panel member on Fox News Sunday last week? Just out of the blue. He was doing his best to sound, er,..presidential.

a capella on August 24, 2011 at 10:45 AM

Possible, but I suspect that Hillary and her voting constituency won’t take kindly to such thing. She tolerated having Obama steal her throne -ONLY because she dare not fight her usual dirty way against a black man upsetting the very base she needs to win,-but a white man as competition? She’ll destroy any who dare try.

Don L on August 24, 2011 at 11:11 AM

If he joins the race, the Latino newcomer’s career trajectory – running for president after just a short career in the U.S. Senate and a stint in the state legislature – will look remarkably similar to President Obama’s.

Except that Rubio can hold a cogent thought in his young head, without a prompter.

Schadenfreude on August 24, 2011 at 11:22 AM

Barry could burnish his image, maybe a 2 week tour of Europe. Perhaps drop by the Cannes film festival and mingle with friends. Offer rides on AF1 in exchange for some campaign money.

GarandFan on August 24, 2011 at 11:45 AM

Why do you think the left chose such an inexperienced incompetent arrogant man? That is the real racism in this entire game – the use of race by Obama and the left against the deliberately guilt-ridden general population as a truth inhibitor -PC -if you will.

Don L on August 24, 2011 at 11:06 AM

I travel a lot. The ONLY Obama bumper stickers I see lately are on cars being driven by white women in their 50′s and 60′s. Oddly enough, they all look like retired teachers.

Key West Reader on August 24, 2011 at 11:49 AM

If so, Rubio is unneeded on the national ticket. Perry should pick Guiliani to temper the electorate’s unwarranted sense that he is extreme.

honsy on August 24, 2011 at 9:32 AM

Rubio isn’t needed for FL. He is needed for NV, NM, CO.

angryed on August 24, 2011 at 12:18 PM

Exit question: if Obama is in big trouble in Florida, which of our candidates can win Ohio?

Steve Z on August 24, 2011 at 10:53 AM

Obama is in big trouble here, too. Even with a ridiculous D+10 sample, he is at 44%. We adjust the numbers to actual Ohio 2010 turnout here.

KeepOhioRed on August 24, 2011 at 12:20 PM

I travel a lot. The ONLY Obama bumper stickers I see lately are on cars being driven by white women in their 50′s and 60′s. Oddly enough, they all look like retired teachers.

Key West Reader on August 24, 2011 at 11:49 AM

Heh. I’ve seen 2 Obama 2012 stickers so far. Both on Subaru wagons. Both driven by middle aged (typical?) white women.

angryed on August 24, 2011 at 12:21 PM

I think any talk of Hillary mounting a primary challenge is crazy talk. There is no way she would win when 99% of the black vote would go to Obamaa+. There is always the chance he doesn’t run again. But if he does, there is 0 chance of him losing the Dim nomination. Hillary’s too smart to not know this.

angryed on August 24, 2011 at 12:23 PM

Boy do things get a lot easier if we can put FLA in our column from the git-go.

JohnGalt23 on August 24, 2011 at 9:32 AM

They sure do. And if he’s losing FL this bad, it means other states will be vastly easier as well. I think OH, IN, VA and NC will all go red. If FL does too, that leaves NH and a couple of the Western states (or WI or IA). CO will be difficult.

Missy on August 24, 2011 at 5:01 PM