Palin event on Labor Day weekend not a campaign launch?; Update: Rasmussen poll shows Palin losing to Obama by 17 points; Update: “Major announcement”?

posted at 1:25 pm on August 22, 2011 by Ed Morrissey

After Sarah Palin showed up in Iowa the day before the Ames straw poll and announced a Labor Day event in Indianola, speculation arose again that the former Vice Presidential nominee would throw her hat into the ring for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination.  According to Real Clear Politics and their “sources close to Palin,” her supporters will have to wait longer to find out whether Palin will get into the race:

Speculation that Palin might use the Labor Day weekend event to declare her candidacy has ramped up on cable news and the conservative blogosphere, but RCP has learned from sources close Palin that an official announcement is unlikely at that time.

Still, Palin’s speech is expected to offer more clues about whether she will jump into the race sometime in September, as some of her public comments and behind-the-scenes actions over the past several months have suggested is possible. And a core group of self-appointed volunteer organizers hope that the Indianola shindig will be one of the best-attended events of the presidential campaign season to date.

Instead of a campaign launch, RCP reports that it may be more of a campaign test event:

Peter Singleton, a California attorney who leads the Iowa branch of the all-volunteer group Organize4Palin, told conservative radio host Tammy Bruce on Saturday that in addition to Palin’s speech, the three-hour midday rally would include a diverse undercard of speakers, music and video interludes, and even a group lesson on precinct organizing.

The event will pose a significant test for Singleton and the rest of the all-volunteer army of Palin devotees who have for months been quietly paving the way for a presidential run that would be fueled by a dedicated core of political novices.

At the moment, that seems to be the only evidence that Palin’s running at all — the proliferation of volunteer auxiliaries working to organize the event.  That will eventually pose a problem for an entry into the campaign, though, which is that the other campaigns will have staffed up in Iowa and elsewhere.  Assuming Palin does jump into the race, she will find the pickings slim for experienced staffers and organizers.  Of all the potential candidates who have yet to declare, Palin has the best odds of overcoming that handicap due to her near-universal name recognition, but in Iowa, organization and retail politics are the key to victory.

That raises another question about the event itself.  Are Iowans excited about it?  Not as much as outsiders, it seems at the moment:

Anecdotal evidence suggests that the crowd that will descend on the site — which recently played host to the National Balloon Classic — will include a sizable contingent of out-of-staters. The Texas branch of Organize4palin, for example, is organizing a bus trip to make the more than 11-hour drive from Dallas to Indianola.

Politicians don’t win the Iowa caucus with showy, one-off events.  They have to conduct the retail politicking that the declared candidates are currently conducting all across the state.  That means going to small events as well as large ones, traveling through all of the small towns and shaking hands, and asking voters now to caucus for them in 2012.  And that takes a network of organization for the follow-up visits and phone calls, turnout support, and so on.

Palin would need to win Iowa to have a path to the nomination (she’s not the only one, either; so would Bachmann).  She’s unlikely to do well in New Hampshire or Michigan against Romney, and a southern governor like Perry will have the advantage in South Carolina and Florida.  Yet even at this late date, Palin appears to have no real organization in the field in Iowa, and without a campaign in place, no major fundraisers either.  If the Labor Day event doesn’t feature Palin announcing a presidential run and a serious approach to campaigning in Iowa, she will start running out of time to compete properly in the state she will have to win in the caucus next winter.

Update: Maybe this Rasmussen poll shows why Palin is remaining ambiguous (via Allahpundit and the headlines):

If Election Day was right now, President Obama would defeat the former Alaska governor 50% to 33%, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey. This marks the first time that the president has risen out of the 40s in hypothetical matchups with any of the major GOP presidential hopefuls. Fifteen percent (15%) prefer some other candidate, and two percent (2%) are undecided.  …

Last month, Obama posted a 47% to 38% lead over Palin, the GOP’s unsuccessful vice presidential candidate in 2008.

Palin earns support from 62% of Republicans, while 88% of Democrats back the president. Voters not affiliated with either party prefer Obama by a 51% to 30% margin.

The internals of the poll make a Palin challenge to Obama look daunting indeed.  She loses young voters by a whopping 12/64 and thirtysomethings 30/50.  All ethnic demos go to Obama, including a 43/38 edge among white voters.  In a two-way race with Palin, 20% of self-identified conservatives go to Obama, and another 19% are undecided.  Palin loses every income demographic as well.

Update II: According to Fox News, the rally will feature “a major announcement”:

Charlie Gruschow, co-founder of event host Tea Party of America, told FoxNews.com he doesn’t know what Palin will do at the rally, but that “all we’re being told is that she’s going to make a major announcement.”

Tea Party of America has already started running radio ads in Iowa promoting the event. And the group’s website has a poll asking readers not if but “when” Palin will announce her candidacy.

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If she gets the nomination, will you vote for her?

Mary in LA on August 23, 2011 at 1:49 PM

Are you kidding, absolutely, I heavily supported her last election, locally in the campaign and financially. I think she is great at what she does…but I have come to the realization, by her actions and inactions, that she is not ready for the big game.
She is a huge asset to the Republican party and carries a lot of weight, and is a start towards weeding out RINO’s…but we need to win, and right now Perry has the big MO, if he names his VP early and they begin their campaigning, it will devastate Obama, and give us so much momentum for the Senate and the House.
This is the year, not to experiment, but to get back to basics and choose a strong, aggressive leader who is not hesitant in jumping in and leading.
And also let the candidate know, he is working for us…

right2bright on August 23, 2011 at 1:55 PM

Because Beck is the guy who said he may be going blind, and all of his minions began weeping, than he had a skin disease that could have been cancer, and life threatening, and all of his minions wept…this is to show you how easily you are manipulated, since you guys think only others are…I sat back and watched as he jerked your chains, and like the Pavlov dog, you all reacted.
That is why I mentioned Beck, because cultists follow people blindly,the irony was that you guys were saying someone who does not support Palin must be under a liberal “spell”…and we all laugh at you.

right2bright on August 23, 2011 at 1:35 PM

I have no idea what you’re babbling about.

I think people may be starting to laugh … at you.

darwin on August 23, 2011 at 1:58 PM

if he names his VP early and they begin their campaigning, it will devastate Obama, and give us so much momentum for the Senate and the House.

Okay, but why do you think it will devastate Obama? Remember, he’s a Chicago thug at heart. Look at how he just got the president of Standard & Poor fired, within the last 24 hours, for having the temerity to make His Royal O-ness look bad. I think it’s more likely that he’ll set the media dogs on the front-runner.

We know our press is blatantly partisan. How is Perry going to get a fair shake from them? Or if he doesn’t need one, what should he do instead?

Mary in LA on August 23, 2011 at 2:00 PM

Perry will win the nomination,

He’s not going to win, the media and Obama are going to turn him into Bush 2.0, with more swagger. And then drop some deep dark secret on us long before he gets that far…

Sharr on August 23, 2011 at 2:01 PM

Running out for a bite o’ lunch… I’ll be right back with my sandwich. There’s nobody I’d rather eat lunch with than the folks at Hot Air!

Mary in LA on August 23, 2011 at 2:05 PM

Sarah has been vetted for the last 3 years. They went after her emails while she was in office as governor. They’ve got nothing on her and they won’t be able to find anything. Also, all of the lame name calling has lost its affects now and people will know the real Sarah when she gets in. She will be awesome on the campaign trail. People = money.

Mirimichi on August 23, 2011 at 2:09 PM

It’s not “panic”, it’s called leadership, stepping out into the ring and mixing it up. It’s shows us who really wants it, who is willing to fight for it, rather than sit on the sidelines and wait for the dust to settle.

right2bright on August 23, 2011 at 10:35 AM

On September 21, 1846, Zachary Taylor stepped out into the ring at Monterrey and suffered staggering losses, including 11 West Point graduates. The next day, after the dust settled, he employed urban warfare tactics, clearing house to house by chipping holes in the side of the adobe buildings and killing the snipers hiding on rooftops. There is no need for Palin to rush in headlong. She is running an asymmetrical campaign, and it is fascinating to watch her strategy unfold.

Jocundus on August 23, 2011 at 2:13 PM

OT: Earthquakes in Virginia and southern Colorado and northern New Mexico.

Mirimichi on August 23, 2011 at 2:31 PM

There is no need for Palin to rush in headlong. She is running an asymmetrical campaign, and it is fascinating to watch her strategy unfold.

Jocundus on August 23, 2011 at 2:13 PM

Yeah, well, we blasted Hussein out in just a couple of days by overpowering them with bold decisive strikes, and lost no one.
Don’t be foolish, but I will tell you what, if we have to attack any adobe houses, than I will nominate Palin for the job.
You may be “fascinated” glad you are amused…I am looking for a leader not a ninja…

right2bright on August 23, 2011 at 2:35 PM

We know our press is blatantly partisan. How is Perry going to get a fair shake from them? Or if he doesn’t need one, what should he do instead?

Mary in LA on August 23, 2011 at 2:00 PM

Because he is expecting a “normal” campaign, and I think this will anything but “normal”.
Perry will have X, and Obama will have Biden, I think we all agree that X will devastate Biden. The more time to campaign, the more time to tell the story.
This isn’t like a normal average campaign, a lot has gone on, and there is a lot to tell…along with the on-going investigations.
I don’t just want Obama defeated, I want the administration humiliated…for months, slow torture of seeing their kingdom torn apart and compared to the worst of any administration…

right2bright on August 23, 2011 at 2:40 PM

I’ll vote for a Pet Rock if it’s running against Obama.

Get your Palin 2012 gear right here:

http://www.cafepress.com/sk/PalinReagan

jjrakman on August 23, 2011 at 2:45 PM

I have no idea what you’re babbling about.

I think people may be starting to laugh … at you.

darwin on August 23, 2011 at 1:58 PM

You don’t remember Beck decrying that fact that he may be going blind? Then later after that was proven to be a farce, he came out with a virus or something that was not identifiable, and was numbing his arm…oh the panic from the minions, the horror…it was quite entertaining. Sorry you missed it.

During a tearful and passionate speech at his “American Revival” meeting in Salt Lake City on Saturday, Fox News host Glenn Beck revealed that he may be going blind.

During his speech (video below), Beck told the audience, “I can’t focus my eyes.”

Taking a shot at health care reform, Beck said, “I went to the best doctor I could find, while I could still go to the best doctor I can find.”

Beck, 46, says he has been diagnosed with macular dystrophy, and joked that the doctor told him, “You could go blind in the next year . . . or you might not.”

By COURTNEY HUTCHISON, ABC News Medical Unit
Jul. 21, 2010

During a tearful speech, Glenn Beck announced that he “might go blind in the next year” due to a rare eye condition known as macular dystrophy.

Amazing he passed over one year and it didn’t happen…praise God.
But it was a great showtime, just what any good revivalist would want to hear on Sunday night.
That is who cultists follow…

right2bright on August 23, 2011 at 2:46 PM

Perry will have X, and Obama will have Biden, I think we all agree that X will devastate Biden. The more time to campaign, the more time to tell the story.

I don’t think I follow you — are you saying that Perry’s VP, whoever that is, being able to smoke Biden (and I’m sure you’re right about that — a lobotomized hamster could smoke Biden) will cut through the MSNBC/CBS/ABC/CNN spin on, oh, just about everything in the campaign?

How will that work, when the one thing we can count on in this election (as in the past) is that the mainstream media will do everything but “tell the story”?

Mary in LA on August 23, 2011 at 3:01 PM

This isn’t like a normal average campaign, a lot has gone on, and there is a lot to tell…along with the on-going investigations.

I agree, but who’s going to do the telling?

I don’t just want Obama defeated, I want the administration humiliated…for months, slow torture of seeing their kingdom torn apart and compared to the worst of any administration…

right2bright on August 23, 2011 at 2:40 PM

Agree 100% there. The difficulty is, how is Perry’s campaign going to get past the MSM’s implacable stonewalling of anything that puts a GOP candidate in a positive light?

Mary in LA on August 23, 2011 at 3:03 PM

I don’t just want Obama defeated, I want the administration humiliated

I’m pretty sure someone told me last night, “this isn’t a game”. So its only a game when Sarah Palin is the combatant, all others are just out to get Barry…

Look, I want Obama to end badly, as a failure and I want it to be at the hands of his, and the rest of his fellows worst nightmare, the person whom they’ve spent three years trying to end.

Those that claim to have supported Sarah Palin before but for whatever reason don’t now. she hasn’t changed, the only thing which has changed is the media and establishment telling how bad she is. If you agreed with and liked her before there is little reason you don’t now. Unless you’re willing to let the media make up your mind for you.

Sharr on August 23, 2011 at 3:18 PM

Perry will win the nomination, Palin will be energy secretary…she will endorse him and campaign for him, and he will win in a landslide…my prediction.
I don’t think anyone can overtake Perry’s momentum, unless he stumbles badly, ends up in bed with a stripper midget and a lonely goat type of thing.

right2bright on August 23, 2011 at 1:50 PM

The longer you post, the more you make sense. If Sarah doesn’t run, Perry is my choice and definitely Sarah for Energy Secretary.

bluefox on August 23, 2011 at 3:18 PM

And let me just say. If by chance someone other than Sarah Palin becomes the next president. I’m doubtful they’ll include her in their administration. They’ll either be white bread establishment, so won’t touch her with a ten foot pole or,that whole issue the PDRers keep harping on, her mere presence will “suck the oxygen out of room”. I mean, is that not the narrative? Why would it change after the election?

This is akin to the “kingmaker” meme…

Sharr on August 23, 2011 at 3:25 PM

Sharr on August 23, 2011 at 3:25 PM

EXCELLENT point!!

greeneyedconservative on August 23, 2011 at 5:09 PM

Agree 100% there. The difficulty is, how is Perry’s campaign going to get past the MSM’s implacable stonewalling of anything that puts a GOP candidate in a positive light?

Mary in LA on August 23, 2011 at 3:03 PM

By starting early, and hitting hard, the MSM will not be on any of our sides.
The people will back a fighter, a bold, strong leader, they are yearning for that.

right2bright on August 23, 2011 at 5:15 PM

Those that claim to have supported Sarah Palin before but for whatever reason don’t now. she hasn’t changed, the only thing which has changed is the media and establishment telling how bad she is. If you agreed with and liked her before there is little reason you don’t now. Unless you’re willing to let the media make up your mind for you.

Sharr on August 23, 2011 at 3:18 PM

Not claim, I will just about bet you any amount of money more time, effort, and money (all three) by me were put into her campaign than what you put in.
She has changed, and the times have changed, and the media is not telling me to back Perry, Bachmann, Cain, etc. So your scenario/dream kind of gets blown up seeing I am supporting most any other candidate that is out their leading the fight, and no I am not supporting a fence sitter, someone in the peanut gallery…and no I can’t support Romney because I just don’t think he has a chance of winning a national record.
She was out in front leading the charge, now she is sitting back and letting the other candidates pave the way and take the heat…I respect them for taking the fight to the streets and to the administration. They know that more time in front of the media, may mean the potential for making a mistake and ruining their chances, as does Palin…the difference is, they are fearless, Palin is being fearful.
And dream on about the media influencing me, you won’t find that analysis by them, and you won’t find the strong conviction of supporting the conservative/Republican candidate that I have.

right2bright on August 23, 2011 at 5:22 PM

By starting early, and hitting hard, the MSM will not be on any of our sides.

But why would the media be any less in the tank for Obama now than they were in 2008?

The people will back a fighter, a bold, strong leader, they are yearning for that.

Only if the people hear the truth. Do you think the media are telling the truth now?

Mary in LA on August 23, 2011 at 5:41 PM

Only if the people hear the truth. Do you think the media are telling the truth now?

Mary in LA on August 23, 2011 at 5:41 PM

No, but the internet is more powerful than ever…the MSM is losing it’s power.
Newspaper are for sports and business, few read it for any real information.
With Fox dominating the news, and talk radio dominating that segment, the word is getting out…of course it helps that the current occupant of the White House is so inept that event the MSM can’t hide it.

right2bright on August 23, 2011 at 5:55 PM

No, but the internet is more powerful than ever…the MSM is losing it’s power.

That, I think (I hope!), will be our salvation. It can’t happen fast enough to suit me! (My favorite local example is the LA TSlimes, which appears to be trying to boost its plummeting circulation figures by leaving a little “teaser” version of the paper, pretentiously called “Times Select”, on everybody’s driveway once every couple of weeks.)

It seems to me that Gov. Palin has been the first GOP candidate to successfully use the Internet and social media to get past the MSM gatekeepers. Can Gov. Perry do the same thing? Do you think he should?

Mary in LA on August 23, 2011 at 6:23 PM

calling someone a “poo poo head” or the equivalent because they have a different opinion, you guys need to grow up
right2bright on August 23, 2011 at 1:41 PM

No – an accurate term to apply to you, in particular, would be “delusional”, unless you can find anywhere that I’ve said that or anything like that. I suggest getting away from your keyboard, getting outside and taking some deep breaths. Panic is not a good thing.

whatcat on August 23, 2011 at 6:48 PM

An apt vid for the guy who gets impatient waiting on the microwave to heat his cup of water…

Gohawgs on August 23, 2011 at 6:57 PM

whatcat on August 23, 2011 at 6:48 PM

If I went back and pulled the names you guys call someone who doesn’t worship Palin…well it wouldn’t matter you would just ignore it.
Obviously, since it was so obvious you (generic you) have…and no, you did not call anyone a “poo poo head”, that is why I put it in quotes, it was to infer that you (the generic you as in Palin cultists) post childish names and such to try to make your point.

right2bright on August 23, 2011 at 11:11 PM

Good Grief!
What is it that some don’t understand about being 17 points down to, of all people, Obama??
Give it up; not happening, and the best route to four more years. Yuk!

churchill995 on August 23, 2011 at 11:21 PM

Good Grief!
What is it that some don’t understand about being 17 points down to, of all people, Obama??
Give it up; not happening, and the best route to four more years. Yuk!

churchill995 on August 23, 2011 at 11:21 PM

Ironic comment for someone with your handle.

Kataklysmic on August 24, 2011 at 12:50 AM

right2bright

Whatever you believe is being accomplished by talking about others calling names, is completely obliterated by you calling folks “Palin cultists”. As stupid a concept as is humanly possible. The very most attractive quality of Gov. Palin is independence, and the people who most appreciate the things she stands for, the things she says, are those who don’t “join” for the sake of joining, but who are willing to follow someone who is speaking clearly and sincerely.

You might get taken seriously about name-calling if you didn’t engage in it.

Freelancer on August 24, 2011 at 3:54 AM

You might get taken seriously about name-calling if you didn’t engage in it.

Freelancer on August 24, 2011 at 3:54 AM

Awwww, you see I did not understand the rules…
I can’t defend myself, I can’t throw back that which is thrown at me, I have to sit back and be called “RINO” because I don’t follow the Palin cult.
Thanks for explaining that to me.
Now, in fairness, you will now address each of the people who did the same to me and admonish them…
That is what I mean by “cult”, you only see your side, only your side and attacking the other side is fine.
You might get taken seriously if you were even handed…nice try though, good tactic, the Palin cultist will applaud it. But it dilutes you argument and strengthens mine among the independents.
You just want to shut up any dissension…

right2bright on August 24, 2011 at 8:41 AM

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