Palin event on Labor Day weekend not a campaign launch?; Update: Rasmussen poll shows Palin losing to Obama by 17 points; Update: “Major announcement”?

posted at 1:25 pm on August 22, 2011 by Ed Morrissey

After Sarah Palin showed up in Iowa the day before the Ames straw poll and announced a Labor Day event in Indianola, speculation arose again that the former Vice Presidential nominee would throw her hat into the ring for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination.  According to Real Clear Politics and their “sources close to Palin,” her supporters will have to wait longer to find out whether Palin will get into the race:

Speculation that Palin might use the Labor Day weekend event to declare her candidacy has ramped up on cable news and the conservative blogosphere, but RCP has learned from sources close Palin that an official announcement is unlikely at that time.

Still, Palin’s speech is expected to offer more clues about whether she will jump into the race sometime in September, as some of her public comments and behind-the-scenes actions over the past several months have suggested is possible. And a core group of self-appointed volunteer organizers hope that the Indianola shindig will be one of the best-attended events of the presidential campaign season to date.

Instead of a campaign launch, RCP reports that it may be more of a campaign test event:

Peter Singleton, a California attorney who leads the Iowa branch of the all-volunteer group Organize4Palin, told conservative radio host Tammy Bruce on Saturday that in addition to Palin’s speech, the three-hour midday rally would include a diverse undercard of speakers, music and video interludes, and even a group lesson on precinct organizing.

The event will pose a significant test for Singleton and the rest of the all-volunteer army of Palin devotees who have for months been quietly paving the way for a presidential run that would be fueled by a dedicated core of political novices.

At the moment, that seems to be the only evidence that Palin’s running at all — the proliferation of volunteer auxiliaries working to organize the event.  That will eventually pose a problem for an entry into the campaign, though, which is that the other campaigns will have staffed up in Iowa and elsewhere.  Assuming Palin does jump into the race, she will find the pickings slim for experienced staffers and organizers.  Of all the potential candidates who have yet to declare, Palin has the best odds of overcoming that handicap due to her near-universal name recognition, but in Iowa, organization and retail politics are the key to victory.

That raises another question about the event itself.  Are Iowans excited about it?  Not as much as outsiders, it seems at the moment:

Anecdotal evidence suggests that the crowd that will descend on the site — which recently played host to the National Balloon Classic — will include a sizable contingent of out-of-staters. The Texas branch of Organize4palin, for example, is organizing a bus trip to make the more than 11-hour drive from Dallas to Indianola.

Politicians don’t win the Iowa caucus with showy, one-off events.  They have to conduct the retail politicking that the declared candidates are currently conducting all across the state.  That means going to small events as well as large ones, traveling through all of the small towns and shaking hands, and asking voters now to caucus for them in 2012.  And that takes a network of organization for the follow-up visits and phone calls, turnout support, and so on.

Palin would need to win Iowa to have a path to the nomination (she’s not the only one, either; so would Bachmann).  She’s unlikely to do well in New Hampshire or Michigan against Romney, and a southern governor like Perry will have the advantage in South Carolina and Florida.  Yet even at this late date, Palin appears to have no real organization in the field in Iowa, and without a campaign in place, no major fundraisers either.  If the Labor Day event doesn’t feature Palin announcing a presidential run and a serious approach to campaigning in Iowa, she will start running out of time to compete properly in the state she will have to win in the caucus next winter.

Update: Maybe this Rasmussen poll shows why Palin is remaining ambiguous (via Allahpundit and the headlines):

If Election Day was right now, President Obama would defeat the former Alaska governor 50% to 33%, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey. This marks the first time that the president has risen out of the 40s in hypothetical matchups with any of the major GOP presidential hopefuls. Fifteen percent (15%) prefer some other candidate, and two percent (2%) are undecided.  …

Last month, Obama posted a 47% to 38% lead over Palin, the GOP’s unsuccessful vice presidential candidate in 2008.

Palin earns support from 62% of Republicans, while 88% of Democrats back the president. Voters not affiliated with either party prefer Obama by a 51% to 30% margin.

The internals of the poll make a Palin challenge to Obama look daunting indeed.  She loses young voters by a whopping 12/64 and thirtysomethings 30/50.  All ethnic demos go to Obama, including a 43/38 edge among white voters.  In a two-way race with Palin, 20% of self-identified conservatives go to Obama, and another 19% are undecided.  Palin loses every income demographic as well.

Update II: According to Fox News, the rally will feature “a major announcement”:

Charlie Gruschow, co-founder of event host Tea Party of America, told FoxNews.com he doesn’t know what Palin will do at the rally, but that “all we’re being told is that she’s going to make a major announcement.”

Tea Party of America has already started running radio ads in Iowa promoting the event. And the group’s website has a poll asking readers not if but “when” Palin will announce her candidacy.

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Why do haters want so desperately for Palin to stay out? If she’s such a colossal disaster and not even people in her own party would vote for her, then what is the harm in her tossing her hat in the ring. She’ll flame out quickly, everyone can tell us Palinistas “I told you so” and we can all go vote for Perry instead.

NoLeftTurn on August 22, 2011 at 9:37 PM

but I recognize there are an awful lot of people out there that irrationally despise the woman.

Firefly_76 on August 22, 2011 at 9:21 PM

They are as foolish as the ones that idolize her…she is a politician, that is pretty obvious by now.
She is the answer for many, and a disappointment for many others…it is just a choice of style.
She has moved into the realm of the typical political hack, and no longer has that air of separation that made her so distinct.
She has mistaken political cleverness, for political astuteness…
I believe she thinks being clever is better than having common sense…and common sense states, you make a decision, stick with and and lead.
Political game playing is cute, and gets you noticed, but makes for a lousy leader…especially during these times that is going to take tough, hard choices.

right2bright on August 22, 2011 at 9:38 PM

Also, how many bashing the Palin film are Ayn Rand fans? Mmm, I’m going to say probably a good many are.

A little movie called Atlas: Shrugged Part 1. didn’t do so great (Though there is going to be a Part 2.). I suppose I must take from this fact that Rand and her book do not hold an good ideas of value?

These things did not play so well, not because they “SUCKED” horribly and no one’s interested the actual content. They did not do so well becuse Right wingers just are not very good at the entertainment game. A problem which needs to be fixed by the way.

Sharr on August 22, 2011 at 9:39 PM

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAhahahahaha…and you’re actually serious!
chumpThreads on August 22, 2011 at 9:36 PM

To be fair though, Palin is a private citizen right now.

Hey, where is PBHO’s new jobs plan….er….jobs outline?

Bishop on August 22, 2011 at 9:39 PM

right2bright on August 22, 2011 at 9:38 PM

So if she didn’t play by your timetable, she’s all the names you are calling her. Why is it that she should announce on 3rd and not some later date say 23rd?

promachus on August 22, 2011 at 9:39 PM

then what is the harm in her tossing her hat in the ring. She’ll flame out quickly, everyone can tell us Palinistas “I told you so” and we can all go vote for Perry instead.

NoLeftTurn on August 22, 2011 at 9:37 PM

Because it’s not a “game”, we are looking to find a leader quick, get behind him/her, and build up a mighty war chest to overcome an entrenched political enemy, who is well financed and who has been building his machine for the past two years.
Months mean a lot right now, and we need to find our nominee, and kick some @ss.
It’s not “hate” it’s being practical, and decisive and taking control of the situation, and wresting control from Obama.
You vision of “hate” tells more about your obsession, than the only real goal…defeat the democrats and take over the senate, house, and the White House, that is the only goal. Personal obsessions, need to be put aside, and re-focus on the only goal.

right2bright on August 22, 2011 at 9:43 PM

So if she didn’t play by your timetable, she’s all the names you are calling her. Why is it that she should announce on 3rd and not some later date say 23rd?

promachus on August 22, 2011 at 9:39 PM

I have answered that, time is of the essence, and we need to focus on leaders, not political game players.

right2bright on August 22, 2011 at 9:44 PM

OT:

Breaking: Head of Standard and Poor’s Fired!

That’ll teach him to downgrade Obama.

S&P Board Fires CEO For Telling The Truth, To Be Replaced With COO Of Citibank

I guess somebody made a phone call, huh?

Emperor Norton on August 22, 2011 at 9:44 PM

She sign her contract in Jan of 2010. not sure how long it’s for some say 2 years some 3 years.

unseen on August 22, 2011 at 7:53 PM

Ok, thanks. It seems that her contract may be different, than say Huckabees since he has his own show. I’ve only seen her on other Fox shows tho. Legal matters are out of my league:-) I’m sure they are both doing what is necessary.

bluefox on August 22, 2011 at 9:44 PM

I’m not exactly sure who’s doing all the flacking for the “Major Announcement” but it will probably have to be Palin saying she’s running for POTUS, or else she’s going to become the girl who cried wolf.

Bishop on August 22, 2011 at 9:44 PM

Sharr on August 22, 2011 at 9:39 PM

the movie did what it was intended to do. the rollout was done poorly but if you notice the target market wasn’t Palin supporters it was the media and sinc ethe film Palin has had several good news writeups in places liek Newsweek and been praised by CNN and got many in the media to give Bannon a chance to get the word out about Palin on other stations. It was also a way for her supporters to get the information out. from reports Bannon made his money back with the DVD deal and the pay for view deal. the movie will b eused in the upcoming campaign as tools to get Palin’s story out.

Would I have liked AMC to place it in more theaters and advertize the film better? sure but they didn’t. when it was advertized it got good numbers. So all in allm I would say the movie was a good thing. and it will be a piece of the puzzle going foward.

unseen on August 22, 2011 at 9:45 PM

Why do haters want so desperately for Palin to stay out? If she’s such a colossal disaster and not even people in her own party would vote for her, then what is the harm in her tossing her hat in the ring. She’ll flame out quickly, everyone can tell us Palinistas “I told you so” and we can all go vote for Perry instead.

NoLeftTurn on August 22, 2011 at 9:37 PM

You’re making too much sense. Stop it.

Mirimichi on August 22, 2011 at 9:48 PM

I’m not exactly sure who’s doing all the flacking for the “Major Announcement” but it will probably have to be Palin saying she’s running for POTUS, or else she’s going to become the girl who cried wolf.

Bishop on August 22, 2011 at 9:44 PM

Well it could be many things without an OFFICAL announcement. Like saying she will “explore a run” or say she will make an offical announcment on sept 17 that she is goign to throw her hat in the ring. I mean look at Newt he had what 6 annpouncments that he was goign to run befor ehis offical announcement. I’m sure Palin might want to get at least two major media events out of her announcemnt. So as long as she moves the ball forward it should be plenty. Then afte rthe speech you can have foxnews suspend her, which will be more newscycles.

Personally I think the time is about over and she needs to get in soon. By the end of sept at the lastest. But I would like to see her in by mid sept.

unseen on August 22, 2011 at 9:49 PM

I’m not exactly sure who’s doing all the flacking for the “Major Announcement” but it will probably have to be Palin saying she’s running for POTUS, or else she’s going to become the girl who cried wolf caused a lot of nice folks to commit suicide.

Bishop on August 22, 2011 at 9:44 PM

Southernblogger on August 22, 2011 at 9:49 PM

I have answered that, time is of the essence, and we need to focus on leaders, not political game players.

right2bright on August 22, 2011 at 9:44 PM

You are a poor campaign strategist. The time to unify will be after primaries and the republican convention. Once she announces, she’ll have enough money to fuel her primary run. And yes, you can’t have one candidate this far out because it will only give MSM more time to train all their guns on that person. Nobody can survive that.

promachus on August 22, 2011 at 9:51 PM

I guess somebody made a phone call, huh?

Emperor Norton on August 22, 2011 at 9:44 PM

seems likely and I would now expect an upgrade and investors will flee this couontry as it becomes clear that the USA is now a bananna republic.

unseen on August 22, 2011 at 9:52 PM

Because it’s not a “game”, we are looking to find a leader quick, get behind him/her, and build up a mighty war chest to overcome an entrenched political enemy, who is well financed and who has been building his machine for the past two years.
Months mean a lot right now, and we need to find our nominee, and kick some @ss.
It’s not “hate” it’s being practical, and decisive and taking control of the situation, and wresting control from Obama.
You vision of “hate” tells more about your obsession, than the only real goal…defeat the democrats and take over the senate, house, and the White House, that is the only goal. Personal obsessions, need to be put aside, and re-focus on the only goal.

right2bright on August 22, 2011 at 9:43 PM

That’s all a bit of hot air and rationalization. No really, it is. Let the process work and whoever runs, runs and wins or loses. No its not a game. But I would say those obsessed with polls, and thinking of this like chess when in many ways its more like a spin on Wheel OF Fortune are the ones who see this a game and they don’t want their set pieces disturbed.

And, you have a better chance of building a war chest with someone like Palin, who rallies crowds than any of the others right now on the field.

Either way, let her run and if she is so bad she’ll be pushed out in favor or the strong “leader”. But your whole post is disingenuous as it implies Palin and her supporters don’t care about the state of the nation, when evidence speaks strongly the contrary that she and they do very much.

if I sound offended, I am.

Sharr on August 22, 2011 at 9:52 PM

Sharr on August 22, 2011 at 9:39 PM

the movie did what it was intended to do. the rollout was done poorly but if you notice the target market wasn’t Palin supporters it was the media and sinc ethe film Palin has had several good news writeups in places liek Newsweek and been praised by CNN and got many in the media to give Bannon a chance to get the word out about Palin on other stations. It was also a way for her supporters to get the information out. from reports Bannon made his money back with the DVD deal and the pay for view deal. the movie will b eused in the upcoming campaign as tools to get Palin’s story out.

Would I have liked AMC to place it in more theaters and advertize the film better? sure but they didn’t. when it was advertized it got good numbers. So all in allm I would say the movie was a good thing. and it will be a piece of the puzzle going foward.

unseen on August 22, 2011 at 9:45 PM

I hear you Unseen, I was just trying to make a point about and nullify those throwing that out there. And yes, the Right really does need to get a handle on the entertainment end of all this.

Sharr on August 22, 2011 at 9:55 PM

unseen on August 22, 2011 at 9:49 PM

You posted a link describing transportation from Texas (?) to Iowa for her rally. I would think those people piling in a van for an 8-hour trip are going to hear her say “I’m in”. And if she doesn’t, those people are not going to be happy campers on the way back.

sherry on August 22, 2011 at 9:56 PM

The closer Palin comes to announcing that she is running,
the nuttier the naysayers become. And nowhere is it more
apparent than in these postings.

Amjean on August 22, 2011 at 9:56 PM

You posted a link describing transportation from Texas (?) to Iowa for her rally. I would think those people piling in a van for an 8-hour trip are going to hear her say “I’m in”. And if she doesn’t, those people are not going to be happy campers on the way back.

sherry on August 22, 2011 at 9:56 PM

Nope. Wrong.

steebo77 on August 22, 2011 at 9:57 PM

If what I’m reading about that Rasmussen poll — only 68% of GOPers would vote for her, plus

In a two-way race with Palin, 20% of self-identified conservatives go to Obama, and another 19% are undecided.”

Given that, I call BS on the entire poll. What the situation really is, I haven’t a clue, but I can’t see 20% of conservatives voting for Obama, plus another 19% who aren’t sure who they’d vote for…

OnlyOrange on August 22, 2011 at 10:01 PM

And, you have a better chance of building a war chest with someone like Palin, who rallies crowds than any of the others right now on the field.
Either way, let her run and if she is so bad she’ll be pushed out in favor or the strong “leader”.
Sharr on August 22, 2011 at 9:52 PM

One barometer of the excitement generated by just the possibility of a Palin candidacy is right here, on display to everyone. Pawlenty posts were lucky if they got 50 comments – nobody had much interest in his candidacy. But a Palin post – and the comments are through the roof, with this one going on a thousand.

whatcat on August 22, 2011 at 10:02 PM

Sure, let’s nominate Palin, the only candidate who Obama is sure to beat.

At any rate, her announcement will be that she is not running.

keep the change on August 22, 2011 at 10:04 PM

And if she doesn’t, those people are not going to be happy campers on the way back.

sherry on August 22, 2011 at 9:56 PM

You really don’t understand Palin supporters do you? They aren’t going to hear her announce they are going to hear her. This is the first free speech since Madison, WI and if this speech is anything like the madison speech they will go home happy. As long as she moves the ball forward the vast majority will be more than happy.

unseen on August 22, 2011 at 10:05 PM

I call BS on the entire poll. What the situation really is, I haven’t a clue, but I can’t see 20% of conservatives voting for Obama, plus another 19% who aren’t sure who they’d vote for…
OnlyOrange on August 22, 2011 at 10:01 PM

There are certainly problems with the poll. It was a landline phone-only poll which excluded people who use cell phones, a distinction that excludes a very large percentage of the populace.

whatcat on August 22, 2011 at 10:06 PM

One barometer of the excitement generated by just the possibility of a Palin candidacy is right here, on display to everyone. Pawlenty posts were lucky if they got 50 comments – nobody had much interest in his candidacy. But a Palin post – and the comments are through the roof, with this one going on a thousand.

whatcat on August 22, 2011 at 10:02 PM

Tread winner

idesign on August 22, 2011 at 10:06 PM

unseen on August 22, 2011 at 9:49 PM

That’s what I’m thinking it needs to be, something definitive that says “Yes I’m running”. As Dongemarhu told me, with quite the hysterical vibe I might add, I’m not in Palin’s war room so what the hell do I know, but my humble opinion is that anything less will put do some serious harm to Palin’s cred.

Bishop on August 22, 2011 at 10:06 PM

whatcat on August 22, 2011 at 10:02 PM

Ah no. By that metric, Ron Paul could also be president. Palin and Paul both are comment gold because people have passionate opinions about them. They are controversial. So the same people comment back and forth many times. That does not translate into popularity.

keep the change on August 22, 2011 at 10:07 PM

Sure, let’s nominate Palin, the only candidate who Obama is sure to beat.

At any rate, her announcement will be that she is not running.

keep the change on August 22, 2011 at 10:04 PM

Another wishful comment from an ABP sufferer…

idesign on August 22, 2011 at 10:08 PM

You vision of “hate” tells more about your obsession, than the only real goal…defeat the democrats and take over the senate, house, and the White House, that is the only goal. Personal obsessions, need to be put aside, and re-focus on the only goal.

right2bright on August 22, 2011 at 9:43 PM

Huh? Your statement….familiarity and stuff,, ya know?

tinkerthinker on August 22, 2011 at 10:08 PM

unseen on August 22, 2011 at 10:05 PM

Sherry will be unhappy if they don’t come back unhappy.

darwin on August 22, 2011 at 10:08 PM

Setting The Record Straight: Wrong & Misleading
Posted on August 23, 2011
Three years ago DC pundits predicted with glee the demise of Sarah Palin’s political career. This past weekend their tune changed, citing false information that she has made a decision and set a date regarding a future campaign. Any professional pundit claiming to have “inside information” regarding Governor Palin’s personal decision is not only wrong but their comments are specifically intended to mislead the American public. These are the same tired establishment political games that fuel the 24 hour news cycle and that all American’s will hopefully reject in 2012, and this is more of the “politics-as-usual” that Sarah Palin has fought against throughout her career.

PS – Kudos to CNN for setting the record straight, and including Governor Palin’s own words

from sarahpac

unseen on August 22, 2011 at 10:09 PM

Ah no. By that metric, Ron Paul could also be president.
keep the change on August 22, 2011 at 10:07 PM

What are you smoking? He’s never busted 10% in a national election before.

kingsjester on August 22, 2011 at 10:10 PM

One barometer of the excitement generated by just the possibility of a Palin candidacy is right here, on display to everyone. Pawlenty posts were lucky if they got 50 comments – nobody had much interest in his candidacy. But a Palin post – and the comments are through the roof, with this one going on a thousand.
whatcat on August 22, 2011 at 10:02 PM

No one really liked or disliked Tpaw, he was the ultimate vanilla pudding; no one really made a fuss either way.

Palin threads bring out the dueling “YES SHE CAN! NO SHE CAN’T! crowds, and then of course you have those jackwagons who go fishing for a reaction like any ol’ troll would do.

Bishop on August 22, 2011 at 10:11 PM

Sherry will be unhappy if they don’t come back unhappy.

darwin on August 22, 2011 at 10:08 PM

ain’t that the truth. I really don’t understand people like that. I wans’t a big timmy supporter but I took no joy on his supporters when he left the race. I simply can not fathom hating someone or something enough to be happy in their misfortune.

unseen on August 22, 2011 at 10:11 PM

What are you smoking? He’s never busted 10% in a national election before.

kingsjester on August 22, 2011 at 10:10 PM

we are talking about numbers of comments on hotair threads. Read much?

keep the change on August 22, 2011 at 10:12 PM

I simply can not fathom hating someone or something enough to be happy in their misfortune.
unseen on August 22, 2011 at 10:11 PM

I was pretty happy when Bin Laden got free facial reconstruction via Navy SEAL.

I know I know….so don’t even start.

Bishop on August 22, 2011 at 10:13 PM

I love it when people cite poll numbers over a year out from the election as a reason someone should not enter the race.

Here’s why you shouldn’t do that.

holygoat on August 22, 2011 at 10:14 PM

Bishop on August 22, 2011 at 10:11 PM

Yes but it all points to causing excitement and buzz. Which will be needed in large doses against the DNC and Obama.

The 2012 will be about getting the bases out. I doubt tha tObama’s base will turn out heavily this time. If the GOp can get thier base out it will be enough to win the race. If many people are like whatever….then Obama’s chances of wining shoot up. Obama will be trying to depress the gop base. and the quickest way to depress the base is to nominate a RINO or a moderate.

unseen on August 22, 2011 at 10:14 PM

I know I know….so don’t even start.

Bishop on August 22, 2011 at 10:13 PM

good point. but then he was a blood enemy of our country. Are you saying some people see Palin in the same light as they see OBL?

unseen on August 22, 2011 at 10:16 PM

Brian1972 on August 22, 2011 at 6:52 PM

I surmised Rove was deploying the same strategy Levin outlined. The give away was Rove saying “her schedule next week” when 9/3 is two weeks away. He knows the calendar very well indeed and wouldn’t misstate such a thing lightly, rather he must have a reason and the most likely is to start setting in people’s minds some deadline looms that Palin must meet.

Cindy Cooper on August 22, 2011 at 10:16 PM

No one really liked or disliked Tpaw, he was the ultimate vanilla tapioca pudding; no one really made a fuss either way.

Bishop on August 22, 2011 at 10:11 PM

FIFY…

Vanilla is too strong a flavor for TPaw…

OnlyOrange on August 22, 2011 at 10:16 PM

keep the change on August 22, 2011 at 10:12 PM

I do. Even ignoring the last national election, Dr. Paul would get seriously shellacked in a toe to toe contest with Palin. So, your metrics are waaaay off.

kingsjester on August 22, 2011 at 10:16 PM

from sarahpac

unseen on August 22, 2011 at 10:09 PM

Dang your quick…

You beat me tonic!

idesign on August 22, 2011 at 10:17 PM

Yes but it all points to causing excitement and buzz.

Please, understand the basics. A candidate needs to win the moderate vote. The Reagan democrats. The independents. They are called the kingmakers. They decide. Bases alone do not win elections. They can’t. There is not enough of them. Not by a long shot. You must win the middle to get elected. Palin polls horribly with these people. This is why supporting her as nominee is retarded.

keep the change on August 22, 2011 at 10:17 PM

NoLeftTurn on August 22, 2011 at 9:37 PM

Two words. Ross Perot. You can thank him for the lying, cheating, dishonest president who did nothing about terrorism as we were attacked time and time again…don’t underestimate the number of dummies it takes to vote for a fringe candidate who will then allow us to lose it all…easily another 4 years for Obama to destroy the country some more.

Palin, like Christine O’Donnell, needs to go away. Live her life with her tens of millions of dollars and be happy, but she has no chance at beating Obama, and there’s really no chance she ever has of becoming president. Obama was a fluke, mainly because he’s black and the media and their white guilt refused to vet the guy or even report the major scandals he was plagued with. Don’t think that sort of thing will ever happen with Sarah Palin or Michelle Bachmann or any other fringe candidate with zero chance of becoming president.

TheBlueSite on August 22, 2011 at 10:18 PM

tonic? To it…

Sorry

idesign on August 22, 2011 at 10:18 PM

So, your metrics are waaaay off.

kingsjester on August 22, 2011 at 10:16 PM

You need to read better. They are not my metrics, but the other poster who said an indication of how popular Sarah Palin is in America is how many comments the palin threads get on hotair. LOL

That is not MY metric. Because by that logic, Ron Paul could be president.

Get it now?

keep the change on August 22, 2011 at 10:19 PM

good point. but then he was a blood enemy of our country. Are you saying some people see Palin in the same light as they see OBL?
unseen on August 22, 2011 at 10:16 PM

No I wasn’t saying that but yes I suppose there are people who see Palin that way. Ditto for Perry, Huntsman, Bachmann, Romney, Obama, Pelosi, etc etc down the list of politicians.

300 million Americans, you’re going to produce a few whackjobs here and there.

Bishop on August 22, 2011 at 10:22 PM

TheBlueSite on August 22, 2011 at 10:18 PM

Wheewww! So glad that is just your opinion. Slow down, we have a long ways to go…and we haven’t heard enough from the candidates yet.

tinkerthinker on August 22, 2011 at 10:24 PM

Ah no. By that metric, Ron Paul could also be president. Palin and Paul both are comment gold because people have passionate opinions about them. They are controversial. So the same people comment back and forth many times. That does not translate into popularity.
keep the change on August 22, 2011 at 10:07 PM

The problem is that it doesn’t carry over to the real world for Paul. He keeps trying, but there’s very little interest. He has what’s pretty much limited to an online fan club, outside of that he’s the “crazy uncle”. Like Ralph Nader and like perennial candidates.

whatcat on August 22, 2011 at 10:24 PM

That is not MY metric. Because by that logic, Ron Paul could be president.

Get it now?

keep the change on August 22, 2011 at 10:19 PM

And then, after you made your oh so logical point, you said

This is why supporting her as nominee is retarded.

From salon.com (a site you no doubt frequent):

Rutgers political scientist David Redlawsk estimates that 5 million people voted for Barack Obama in 2008 and then voted for a Republican in 2010.

Boy, 5 million people! That is not even 6 percent of the entire voting electorate! (Or maybe even less, because the number of people who claim they voted for Obama is probably high.)

Libertarians make up between 4 percent and 10 percent of the electorate, and I can imagine them voting specifically for divided government (because that totally makes it smaller, every time). (And of course Democrats could win some of them over with vaguely sensible drug and civil liberties policies.) (Though I guess they didn’t come out for Russ Feingold, huh!)

Truly independent voters are still mythical creatures. They exist in the imaginations of commentators who’ve spent most of their adult lives in Washington, D.C. Otherwise, the electorate is largely made up of Democratic voters and Republican voters. In this last election, more Republican voters showed up than Democratic voters. In 2008, the opposite was true.

Care to re-state your position, Skippy?

kingsjester on August 22, 2011 at 10:26 PM

Anyone given The Treatment can be just as disliked in time. Romney’s been hiding behind the drapes for 3 years, Perry’s an unknown hailed as a messiah, and Bachmann’s tolerated because everyone knows she’s not going to get the nomination.

ddrintn

You’re right, they can be. Doesn’t mean they will be. We know Palin already is. Once again, not every candidate is the same. Just because Palin makes herself an easy target doesn’t mean every other candidate will do the same thing.

I’m not a Romney fan, but I find it hilarious how you palinistas criticize him for his actions, despite those actions being largely responsible for him being in the lead, and likely giving him the best shot at beating Obama. Sometimes it makes sense to just keep your mouth shut instead of taking the bait every….single…time. I mean, what exactly are you criticizing him for, not waging a campaign that makes him as unelectable as Palin? I guess that makes sense, if winning isn’t your goal.

As for Perry, who is hailing him as the messiah of anything, other than folks making straw man arguments? He’s a decent candidate with a decent shot at winning. Nothing more, nothing less. The main folks suffering from a messiah complex are Obama zombies, Paultards, and Palinbots.

For the record though, if Palin wants to get in, more power to her. Doesn’t bother me at all. And if she’s the candidate, she’ll get my vote.

xblade on August 22, 2011 at 10:27 PM

TheBlueSite on August 22, 2011 at 10:18 PM

But would you still vote for Obama over Palin like you previously said you would?

Bishop on August 22, 2011 at 10:28 PM

She has many “unofficially” on the ground in Iowa. Heck, she already has people in Obama’s own Illinois.

Fallon on August 22, 2011 at 9:17 PM

And Texas. Did you see the post unseen put up about the trip from Texas to Iowa? Very well organized & sounds like fun too for the 9/3/11 TP gathering speech!

bluefox on August 22, 2011 at 10:28 PM

The title alone… I bet I missed a great thread ;)

MeatHeadinCA on August 22, 2011 at 9:19 PM

You know how a Palin thread goes; you can jump in anywhere, LOL

bluefox on August 22, 2011 at 10:30 PM

no need. Let me sumerize Ace’s post.

Palin bad

Others good.

unseen on August 22, 2011 at 9:21 PM

If that’s the case, I’ll pass. We have that here and more of it:-)

bluefox on August 22, 2011 at 10:32 PM

xblade on August 22, 2011 at 10:27 PM

We’ll see how much of a frontrunner Romney is once she gets in and beats in the primary. She isn’t polling well because conservative side has too many competitors (some of them bought and paid by Romney) and the moderate side doesn’t have anybody significant.

promachus on August 22, 2011 at 10:32 PM

Please, understand the basics. A candidate needs to win the moderate vote. The Reagan democrats. The independents. They are called the kingmakers. They decide. Bases alone do not win elections. They can’t. There is not enough of them. Not by a long shot. You must win the middle to get elected. Palin polls horribly with these people. This is why supporting her as nominee is retarded.

keep the change on August 22, 2011 at 10:17 PM

One, it seems you don’t understand the basics. moderates never decide an election they simply make up their minds last and for the vast majority od time they simply pick the one that seems to be in the lead. The bigger the base turnout, the more the excitment and the mor elikely the moderates will fall inline and be part of the “ingroup”

two) many state polls in battleground states show Palin beating Obama with indies.

three) indoes are not the same as moderates. there are many indies that are considered part of the base. They simply are not part of the party. moderates are those that have no firm believes and simply go with the flow.

four) the secret to wining politcal campaigns is to fire up the base, gotv, and create a campaign that draws the moderates on board. If you can get some of their base you have a landslide if not you have a close win.

five) faliure to get your base out the door means you lose ask mcCain, Kerry, gore, dole and bush the first.

unseen on August 22, 2011 at 10:32 PM

Re:9/3 Palin said she would not yet be a candidate when she returned to IA on sept 3rd. In other words Palin said she had no plans to announce between the fair and her speech. she also said an aug-spet timeframe was the dropdead date. so basically she was saying she will announce her decision between sept3rd and the end of sept.

I’m thinking she announces her “exploration comittee” or some such and takes IA O4p under her wing finally and makes them an offical part of her campaign.

unseen on August 22, 2011 at 7:11 PM

She actually said at the State Fair that mid to late September or early October at the latest was a reasonable timeline for her decision so supporters don’t feel strung along.

Cindy Cooper on August 22, 2011 at 10:33 PM

300 million Americans, you’re going to produce a few whackjobs here and there.

Bishop on August 22, 2011 at 10:22 PM

more than a few I would think.

unseen on August 22, 2011 at 10:34 PM

five) faliure to get your base out the door means you lose ask mcCain, Kerry, gore, dole and bush the first.

unseen on August 22, 2011 at 10:32 PM

You are correct. Maximum turnout among the base, especially in key states, determines the winner.

SheetAnchor on August 22, 2011 at 10:37 PM

If that’s the case, I’ll pass. We have that here and more of it:-)

bluefox on August 22, 2011 at 10:32 PM

I gave up even going to his site it was so stupid. He backed whichever flavor of the month was put up as long as it wasn’t Palin.

He still can’t explain his antipalin views. Ace is a creature of the media bubble and buys into whatever the media is saying at the time. Hell he is still wondering why Fred lost. Ace and his site are cpomplete wastes of time unless your a 14 year old that likes to cuss.

unseen on August 22, 2011 at 10:37 PM

You are correct. Maximum turnout among the base, especially in key states, determines the winner.

SheetAnchor on August 22, 2011 at 10:37 PM

that depends if your base is bigger than their base. In a red state it means victory, in a blue state if your base max turnout is bigger than their base depressed turnout you win like in MA and NJ in 2009. In a purple state it most likely means you win like VA in 2009

unseen on August 22, 2011 at 10:40 PM

She actually said at the State Fair that mid to late September or early October at the latest was a reasonable timeline for her decision so supporters don’t feel strung along.

Cindy Cooper on August 22, 2011 at 10:33 PM

Well the interviewr Brody brought up Oct not her. but she agreed with his comment.

unseen on August 22, 2011 at 10:41 PM

Palin to announce run in January, February, March, April, Easter weekend, May, Memorial Day weekend, June, July 4th weekend, July, August, September….

Palin fans sure enjoy looking like fools. They can’t handle it when anyone anywhere posts reality about Palin, either. Stomp your feet and shake those tiny fists.

This Palin stuff is so old. I wish she would just go away already. She isn’t going to be President. Hell, Ron Paul has a better chance than Palin, one of the most hated people in America, does.

Palin serves no purpose, but to make media, comedians and Obama happy.

Moesart on August 22, 2011 at 10:42 PM

Good night all. It’s been real…

Palin 2012 :)

Fallon on August 22, 2011 at 10:42 PM

Really? I see that you only highlighted just one person, maybe the one you don’t agree with?
Your faux indignation is acknowledged…

right2bright on August 22, 2011 at 9:30 PM

No, not at all. I was just teasing you:-) Actually, I lost my wireless signal and a comment I had ready to post and the window shut down. Don’t know what is going on since the Router is in the same room of my laptop.

I didn’t just signal you out. You usually aren’t so hateful; those I don’t normally reply to at all.

bluefox on August 22, 2011 at 10:43 PM

As usual, unseen, the most ironically named person anywhere, has 247 posts and counting in a Palin thread.

Seek help. Now.

Moesart on August 22, 2011 at 10:44 PM

Don’t think that sort of thing will ever happen with Sarah Palin or Michelle Bachmann or any other fringe candidate with zero chance of becoming president.

TheBlueSite on August 22, 2011 at 10:18 PM

Was Reagan a fringe candidate? When I voted for Reagan in 1980 I had no idea who he was but I did know he wasn’t Carter and I was voting against Carter (I voted for Carter in 1976 BTW) and I have never voted for another Democrat.

They tryed to make Reagan sound like a fringe candidate, heck maybe he was, but he darn sure wasn’t Carter and that was the point.

whbates on August 22, 2011 at 10:44 PM

He still can’t explain his antipalin views. Ace is a creature of the media bubble and buys into whatever the media is saying at the time.
unseen on August 22, 2011 at 10:37 PM

The irony is that he said he was for Pawlenty. So we’re not exactly talking about the best judgment in picking winners & losers, lol.

whatcat on August 22, 2011 at 10:45 PM

A friend of mine ~ who is a hard azz, take no prisoners, bad guys lose, John Wayne guy in pretty much every way possible ~ told me yesterday to forget about Palin because the MSM and the establishment will wipe the floor with her. She can never win. I couldn’t believe it. This tough guy was going to roll over because they’re telling him to?!?! I told him how much that surprised me about him, and if he was so willing to let the LSM and the establishment pick our candidates and our winners, why bother to even vote? Why even discuss politics or stay informed or even care, period? I said that to him because I really thought he was being sincere in his concern.

Right… then I saw an “atta boy” posting on his Facebook for Rick Perry. Aha!! I should have known even before I saw that because every person who throws out that weak-kneed meme has ulterior motives ~ especially someone like my kickazz friend. It’s not that they believe Palin can’t win, it’s that they do and for whatever reasons of their own, they don’t want her to win. So they try to demoralize people like me, patting me on the head while they sadly informing me there’s no way she can win. Now be a good little girl and vote for who they pick for us. NOT.

That being the case, I now zoom right by every naysayer post. Sure makes it a LOT easier to get through these marathon Palin threads, that’s for sure.

greeneyedconservative on August 22, 2011 at 10:45 PM

That should be single instead of signal, LOL

bluefox on August 22, 2011 at 10:43 PM

bluefox on August 22, 2011 at 10:45 PM

Ummm tell me again, why all this arguing about Palin getting in the race? Cause I’m thinking why shouldn’t she. If she loses, she loses. Isn’t that what are primaries are for? Especially since we have a couple of entrants disguised as R’s.

conmo on August 22, 2011 at 10:49 PM

They tryed to make Reagan sound like a fringe candidate, heck maybe he was, but he darn sure wasn’t Carter and that was the point.
whbates on August 22, 2011 at 10:44 PM

Then you must remember all the love he got from the Republican elite, the media & the Democrats. Fast forward to 2011 and Palin, it’s rerun time.

whatcat on August 22, 2011 at 10:50 PM

It is amazing to see the fear of Palin. If she has no chance, then why all of the focus on her. If she is just a fringe candidate, then either Romney or Perry will cruise to the nomination. What is the big fear of Palin running? Unbelievable.

SheetAnchor on August 22, 2011 at 10:50 PM

SheetAnchor – I think you nailed it ….. FEAR.period

conmo on August 22, 2011 at 10:53 PM

It is amazing to see the fear of Palin. If she has no chance, then why all of the focus on her. If she is just a fringe candidate, then either Romney or Perry will cruise to the nomination. What is the big fear of Palin running? Unbelievable.
SheetAnchor on August 22, 2011 at 10:50 PM

A lot of people are asking that question. But so far – no answer. An odd related note: those who complain the most about Palin running are also complaining because she hasn’t announced yet.

whatcat on August 22, 2011 at 10:55 PM

Setting The Record Straight: Wrong & Misleading
Posted on August 23, 2011
Three years ago DC pundits predicted with glee the demise of Sarah Palin’s political career. This past weekend their tune changed, citing false information HOW ABOUT SHE JUST FREAKING DECIDE?

that she has made a decision and set a date regarding a future campaign. Any professional pundit claiming to have “inside information” regarding Governor Palin’s personal decision is not only wrong but their comments are specifically intended to mislead the American public. These are the same tired establishment political games GAMES? HYPOCRITE!! GAMES?….How about the political tease that Palin has become?

that fuel the 24 hour news cycle and that all American’s will hopefully reject in 2012, and this is more of the “politics-as-usual” Yeah, we get it, the rules don’t apply to her, blah, blah, blah..

.that Sarah Palin has fought against throughout her career.

PS – Kudos to CNN for setting the record straight, and including Governor Palin’s own words
from sarahpac

unseen on August 22, 2011 at 10:09 PM

she asked others to sacrifice and run in 2010……….is she willing to do less?

PappyD61 on August 22, 2011 at 10:56 PM

This poll reminds me of the first rule of statistics. If the numbers don’t make any sense, they’re probably wrong.

Are we really to believe that 38% of Republicans would rather vote for Obama? And that Ron Paul has a better shot of winning the White House than Palin?

Something is very screwy with the numbers on this poll.

didymus on August 22, 2011 at 10:56 PM

It seems that as many Republican party heads will explode if Palin runs as you would expect from the liberals. What’s up with that?

And then after the heads explode if she runs, if she wins, then the very people whose heads exploded because she ran, will then turn around and vote for her? Unbelievable. LOL

SheetAnchor on August 22, 2011 at 10:58 PM

As usual, unseen, the most ironically named person anywhere, has 247 posts and counting in a Palin thread.

Seek help. Now.

Moesart on August 22, 2011 at 10:44 PM

For someone to come up with an exact count, I’d say, physician, heal thyself.

What a dink.

Lanceman on August 22, 2011 at 10:58 PM

She will come out and deliver a sledgehammer to obama’s agenda.

I don’t think she’ll get in the race. She’ll drive the cars, though.

Key West Reader on August 22, 2011 at 10:59 PM

Breaking: Head of Standard and Poor’s Fired!

That’ll teach him to downgrade Obama.

S&P Board Fires CEO For Telling The Truth, To Be Replaced With COO Of Citibank

I guess somebody made a phone call, huh?

Emperor Norton on August 22, 2011 at 9:44 PM

That’s too bad. However, it doesn’t change our spending/debt ratio/entitlements. Yes, we certainly need SP.

bluefox on August 22, 2011 at 11:00 PM

HOW ABOUT SHE JUST FREAKING DECIDE?
PappyD61 on August 22, 2011 at 10:56 PM

Another example of the bizarre PDS schizophrenia I just mentioned.
(those who complain the most about Palin running are also complaining because she hasn’t announced yet.)

whatcat on August 22, 2011 at 11:00 PM

The irony is that he said he was for Pawlenty. So we’re not exactly talking about the best judgment in picking winners & losers, lol.

whatcat on August 22, 2011 at 10:45 PM

and before that he was for daniels and before that christie and on and on. whichever caniddate is making news not named Palin Ace is for. I wouldn’t be surprised if he is a Perry man now.

unseen on August 22, 2011 at 11:03 PM

from sarahpac

unseen on August 22, 2011 at 10:09 PM

As I said a few hours ago, I composed a post with links that never appeared—in fact I tried it twice, before and after making an additional point.

The gist was that I was saying I was positive Palin had personally put the kibosh on September 3…I had heard it myself. I searched to no avail and stated on Twitter what I remembered hearing and that I couldn’t find it then voila, the CNN piece appeared this morning.

I tried linking to that very piece in both posts that Hot Air wouldn’t accept for posting.

Cindy Cooper on August 22, 2011 at 11:03 PM

Sure, let’s nominate Palin, the only candidate who Obama is sure to beat.

At any rate, her announcement will be that she is not running.

keep the change on August 22, 2011 at 10:04 PM

I wish people would remember, the Primary is before the General Election.

bluefox on August 22, 2011 at 11:07 PM

…but I recognize there are an awful lot of people out there that irrationally despise the woman.

Firefly_76 on August 22, 2011 at 9:21 PM

No, they rationally can’t stand her supporters.

cartooner on August 22, 2011 at 11:08 PM

this is the article sarahpac linked too:

Will Palin be in by Labor Day? ‘I doubt it’

Karl Rove caused a commotion in recent days by predicting that Sarah Palin will run for president and hinting that she could announce her campaign during a speech to a tea party group in Iowa over Labor Day weekend.

That might be news to Palin. Asked just over a week ago if she would be ready to join the race by the time Labor Day rolls around, Palin responded, “I doubt it.”

Rove’s evidence is this: A new, campaign-style video released by Palin’s political action committee highlighting her recent visit to the Iowa State Fair, and in his words, “a schedule next week that looks like that of a candidate, not a celebrity.”

Setting aside the fact that pretty much no one outside of Sarah and Todd Palin truly knows her schedule – and that Palin has no actual schedule in Iowa this week – lost in the Rove buzz is the reality that he and the former Alaska governor are not exactly close.

They have traded long distance barbs over Palin’s decision to resign from the governorship in 2009, her participation in a television show about her life in Wasilla (Rove said the move undermined her political “gravitas”), and the viability of the Palin-endorsed Senate candidate Christine O’Donnell in 2010.

The two aren’t exactly pen pals.

It is entirely possible that Rove might have gleaned some inside knowledge from the green rooms of Fox News, where he and Palin are both paid contributors. But it otherwise seems unlikely that outside of Palin’s tiny circle of confidantes, Rove and Rove alone would have access to her political plans.

And yet, Palin remains among the most unpredictable political figures in the country. An announcement at the September 3 rally in Iowa remains unlikely, but it should not be ruled out either.

If she does decide to run at some point in the next month, she is promising to deliver a showstopper.

“You won’t be able to miss the announcement,” Palin winked at the pack of reporters following her around the fair in Des Moines earlier this month.

So will Palin become a full-fledged candidate when she returns to Iowa on September 3?

She was asked that very question by several reporters during her whirlwind walking tour of the Iowa State Fair on August 12.

Here she is, in her own words:

Q: When is a good time? Do you have a timeline?

Palin: I have said that that August/September timeframe is important for logistical and legal reasons to jump in there, but

Q: So by next month?

Palin: I think that just practically speaking that has to be kind of a drop dead time. Also, in fairness to supporters, who are standing on the timeline, and this is what I have told Todd over and over again, I don’t want to be seen as or perceived as stringing people along, asking supporters, ‘Oh don’t just jump in there on someone else’s bandwagon because I may jump in, so hold off a little bit.’ That is not fair to them. After another month or two goes by, they need to know who it is that they can jump behind. Now more than ever, everybody has got to get involved in this 2012 election. They need to get out there and campaign for their chosen candidates, its all the more reason to hurry up and decide.

A few moments later, there was this exchange:

Q: Will you know by the next time you are here in Iowa whether you will be in, over Labor Day?

Palin: I doubt it. By the next time I am here by September 3? I don’t know if within the next couple of weeks I will be ready for an announcement or not.

Q: So the end of September is no longer a viable deadline?

Palin: No, he was asking about my next visit here on September 3, if I would be ready for an announcement September 3. And I said I don’t know if I would be ready by September 3.

Q: So the end of September would still be your timetable?

Palin: That is still a possibility for a timetable. Yes, definitely.

unseen on August 22, 2011 at 11:09 PM

she asked others to sacrifice and run in 2010……….is she willing to do less?

PappyD61 on August 22, 2011 at 10:56 PM

Was that 15 months before the election of 2010? As in August 2009? Just checking…

OnlyOrange on August 22, 2011 at 11:10 PM

Cindy Cooper on August 22, 2011 at 11:03 PM

I just posted it above. hope that was the one you were talking about.

unseen on August 22, 2011 at 11:11 PM

Why does Palin have to decide now? Because some pundit said so? Perry just decided a week or so ago. And even if he had not decided to get in the race then, so what.

Palin said she would run an unconventional campaign if she runs. How Palin runs is up to nobody but Palin. Why are all these people so concerned about Palin? It’s almost as if Palin does not dance to some pundits, consultants, or the media’s music, then they just cannot handle it.

I have never seen anything like it. Palin is supposed to let other people tell her what to do? Are you kidding me? Which one of the pundits, consultants, or analyst, is getting paid by Palin to tell her what to do? They all said it was over when she quit being Governor. These people have no credibility when it comes to Palin.

Obviously she must be doing something right. She sure does have a lot of people’s attention. I guess people wake up every morning wondering what she’s doing? This is unbelievable.

If you don’t like Palin, then don’t vote for Palin. People who like Palin, they’re going to vote for Palin. What is the big deal about Palin? This is unbelievable. They sure are scared of Palin. LOL

SheetAnchor on August 22, 2011 at 11:12 PM

QOTD post up about this.

unseen on August 22, 2011 at 11:12 PM

The irony is that he said he was for Pawlenty. So we’re not exactly talking about the best judgment in picking winners & losers, lol.
whatcat on August 22, 2011 at 10:45 PM

and before that he was for daniels and before that christie and on and on. whichever caniddate is making news not named Palin Ace is for. I wouldn’t be surprised if he is a Perry man now.

unseen on August 22, 2011 at 11:03 PM

Ah, so he’s into the flavor of the month Hares, with all the hype & hoopla distracting him from the Tortoise.

whatcat on August 22, 2011 at 11:16 PM

Why does Palin have to decide now?
SheetAnchor on August 22, 2011 at 11:12 PM

Because those who say they would never vote for her say so!
(I’m trying to figure out their reasoning, too, lol)

whatcat on August 22, 2011 at 11:18 PM

If you don’t like Palin, then don’t vote for Palin. People who like Palin, they’re going to vote for Palin. What is the big deal about Palin? This is unbelievable. They sure are scared of Palin. LOL

SheetAnchor on August 22, 2011 at 11:12 PM

they saw the crowds in 2008, the lines for her books, the overflow for her speechs and they know deep down inside they can’t compete with her or her level of support.

the only thing Ace ever said that made sense was when he admited that Palin supporters had the same level of enthusaism as Paul supporters but there are orders of magnitude more of them. So if Paul got 10% of the GOP and say there are 5 times as many Palin supporters that’s 50% they can’t compete with that. What are they going to do hold a pizza party and 50 people show up to hear Mitt or Perry give a speech?

They need to keep Palin out so they are not shown up. And even if she doesn’t win the elections they are still shown up.

It is lose-lose for them if Palin gets in no matter the final outcome. they know it and we know it.

unseen on August 22, 2011 at 11:18 PM

unseen……I’ve been wondering about that name for a week but now I get it!
unseen……the hidden Palin Imam!

cartooner on August 22, 2011 at 11:19 PM

Hey SheetAnchor, People are really, really, really concerned about when or if Palin runs, because they are DEEPLY, DEEPLY,DEEPLY CONCERNEDLY concerned about whether her running would be good for the country, DUH! They’re ONLY concernedly concerned FOR THE CHILDREN, DUH!

bigmike on August 22, 2011 at 11:20 PM

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