Palin event on Labor Day weekend not a campaign launch?; Update: Rasmussen poll shows Palin losing to Obama by 17 points; Update: “Major announcement”?

posted at 1:25 pm on August 22, 2011 by Ed Morrissey

After Sarah Palin showed up in Iowa the day before the Ames straw poll and announced a Labor Day event in Indianola, speculation arose again that the former Vice Presidential nominee would throw her hat into the ring for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination.  According to Real Clear Politics and their “sources close to Palin,” her supporters will have to wait longer to find out whether Palin will get into the race:

Speculation that Palin might use the Labor Day weekend event to declare her candidacy has ramped up on cable news and the conservative blogosphere, but RCP has learned from sources close Palin that an official announcement is unlikely at that time.

Still, Palin’s speech is expected to offer more clues about whether she will jump into the race sometime in September, as some of her public comments and behind-the-scenes actions over the past several months have suggested is possible. And a core group of self-appointed volunteer organizers hope that the Indianola shindig will be one of the best-attended events of the presidential campaign season to date.

Instead of a campaign launch, RCP reports that it may be more of a campaign test event:

Peter Singleton, a California attorney who leads the Iowa branch of the all-volunteer group Organize4Palin, told conservative radio host Tammy Bruce on Saturday that in addition to Palin’s speech, the three-hour midday rally would include a diverse undercard of speakers, music and video interludes, and even a group lesson on precinct organizing.

The event will pose a significant test for Singleton and the rest of the all-volunteer army of Palin devotees who have for months been quietly paving the way for a presidential run that would be fueled by a dedicated core of political novices.

At the moment, that seems to be the only evidence that Palin’s running at all — the proliferation of volunteer auxiliaries working to organize the event.  That will eventually pose a problem for an entry into the campaign, though, which is that the other campaigns will have staffed up in Iowa and elsewhere.  Assuming Palin does jump into the race, she will find the pickings slim for experienced staffers and organizers.  Of all the potential candidates who have yet to declare, Palin has the best odds of overcoming that handicap due to her near-universal name recognition, but in Iowa, organization and retail politics are the key to victory.

That raises another question about the event itself.  Are Iowans excited about it?  Not as much as outsiders, it seems at the moment:

Anecdotal evidence suggests that the crowd that will descend on the site — which recently played host to the National Balloon Classic — will include a sizable contingent of out-of-staters. The Texas branch of Organize4palin, for example, is organizing a bus trip to make the more than 11-hour drive from Dallas to Indianola.

Politicians don’t win the Iowa caucus with showy, one-off events.  They have to conduct the retail politicking that the declared candidates are currently conducting all across the state.  That means going to small events as well as large ones, traveling through all of the small towns and shaking hands, and asking voters now to caucus for them in 2012.  And that takes a network of organization for the follow-up visits and phone calls, turnout support, and so on.

Palin would need to win Iowa to have a path to the nomination (she’s not the only one, either; so would Bachmann).  She’s unlikely to do well in New Hampshire or Michigan against Romney, and a southern governor like Perry will have the advantage in South Carolina and Florida.  Yet even at this late date, Palin appears to have no real organization in the field in Iowa, and without a campaign in place, no major fundraisers either.  If the Labor Day event doesn’t feature Palin announcing a presidential run and a serious approach to campaigning in Iowa, she will start running out of time to compete properly in the state she will have to win in the caucus next winter.

Update: Maybe this Rasmussen poll shows why Palin is remaining ambiguous (via Allahpundit and the headlines):

If Election Day was right now, President Obama would defeat the former Alaska governor 50% to 33%, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey. This marks the first time that the president has risen out of the 40s in hypothetical matchups with any of the major GOP presidential hopefuls. Fifteen percent (15%) prefer some other candidate, and two percent (2%) are undecided.  …

Last month, Obama posted a 47% to 38% lead over Palin, the GOP’s unsuccessful vice presidential candidate in 2008.

Palin earns support from 62% of Republicans, while 88% of Democrats back the president. Voters not affiliated with either party prefer Obama by a 51% to 30% margin.

The internals of the poll make a Palin challenge to Obama look daunting indeed.  She loses young voters by a whopping 12/64 and thirtysomethings 30/50.  All ethnic demos go to Obama, including a 43/38 edge among white voters.  In a two-way race with Palin, 20% of self-identified conservatives go to Obama, and another 19% are undecided.  Palin loses every income demographic as well.

Update II: According to Fox News, the rally will feature “a major announcement”:

Charlie Gruschow, co-founder of event host Tea Party of America, told FoxNews.com he doesn’t know what Palin will do at the rally, but that “all we’re being told is that she’s going to make a major announcement.”

Tea Party of America has already started running radio ads in Iowa promoting the event. And the group’s website has a poll asking readers not if but “when” Palin will announce her candidacy.

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

Comment pages: 1 2 3 12

Go Sarah go!!!!!

csdeven on August 22, 2011 at 1:28 PM

Palin would need to win Iowa to have a path to the nomination

Says who ? The same experts that was sure she wouldn’t run ?

the_nile on August 22, 2011 at 1:28 PM

Oof.

Good Lt on August 22, 2011 at 1:29 PM

Time to move on.

brak on August 22, 2011 at 1:29 PM

In a two-way race with Palin, 20% of self-identified conservatives go to Obama

That makes no damn sense.

JVelez on August 22, 2011 at 1:30 PM

Kleenex stock seen going up.

Schadenfreude on August 22, 2011 at 1:30 PM

Did Bishop write this? :)

Two click monsters from today’s Headlines mashed together…

Are you trying to wear us down, Ed?

Fallon on August 22, 2011 at 1:32 PM

So, after her bus tour (which was a “signal” she’s running) and the release of the movie (which was another “signal she was going to run) she has actually lost ground to Obama while his poll numbers plummeted in the same time frame.

Folks, that’s as clear a picture as you can get that she has no way of winning against Obama.

ButterflyDragon on August 22, 2011 at 1:32 PM

She either will, or she won’t. When she does, she has my support. If she chooses not to by the time the registration date has come and gone, I’ll have to move on to plan B.

But I think I’ll give the “will she or won’t she?” threads a rest for a little while. In the terms of my profession, this is a “self-resolving problem.” Either she’ll run, or not, no point in worrying either way.

DrAllecon on August 22, 2011 at 1:33 PM

Congratulations, Ed.

You’ve added your 2 cents to the MSM and GOP Estab “dead fish go with the flow” folks that “Palin MUST get in around Labor Day or she’s dead in the water” narrative.

Collect your brownie points over here. I’m sure they’re worth it.

It’s very obvious the drumbeat that if Palin doesn’t announce on Labor Day, she’s through, is intentional – just like all the other false narratives that GOP Establishment has been cooking up with media and bloggers.

HotAir and RedState are twins in their collective water carrying for the Establishment.

I noticed you published Rasmussen (GOP/Romney pollster for hire) poll of Palin vs. Obama with NO commentary that Rasmussen REFUSES to include Palin in recent Repub polls – while including PERRY BEFORE he officially announced.

Again. Job well done.

Rove et. al. is pleased with you today.

hrh40 on August 22, 2011 at 1:34 PM

Politicians don’t win the Iowa caucus with showy, one-off events. They have to conduct the retail politicking that the declared candidates are currently conducting all across the state.

No way, really?

Is it okay to have a showy event when one announces a candidacy? Or should that be done in front of as few people as possible?

Maybe we should ask some of the other candidates how they feel about attendance numbers. I’m sure they prefer to keep them low. They’ll likely be relieved not to be drawing all these people like that irrelevant Sarah Palin.

Missy on August 22, 2011 at 1:34 PM

So, after her bus tour (which was a “signal” she’s running) and the release of the movie (which was another “signal she was going to run) she has actually lost ground to Obama while his poll numbers plummeted in the same time frame

How did the movie do, btw? I don’t think I ever saw any numbers on attendance or dollars.

Y-not on August 22, 2011 at 1:34 PM

Update: Rasmussen poll shows Reagan losing to Carter by 25 points!

idesign on August 22, 2011 at 1:35 PM

DrAllecon on August 22, 2011 at 1:33 PM

Exactly. She will have support if she runs or not. Haters will hate regardless.

JVelez on August 22, 2011 at 1:35 PM

I swear, if a headline was posted: “61% Say World Will End Tomorrow”
a huge number of people would post “oh well – it’s over”

Incredible

jake-the-goose on August 22, 2011 at 1:35 PM

How did the movie do, btw? I don’t think I ever saw any numbers on attendance or dollars.

Y-not on August 22, 2011 at 1:34 PM

Not spectacular numbers, but respectable given the circumstances. Enough for Bannon to bank on a DVD release anyhow.

gryphon202 on August 22, 2011 at 1:36 PM

will just have to wait to see what she decides to do…will focus on those who are actually declared at this time…

cmsinaz on August 22, 2011 at 1:36 PM

Fred Thompson redux.

mythicknight on August 22, 2011 at 1:36 PM

Palinista’s heads exploding on this thread.

It’s going to be EPIC!

ButterflyDragon on August 22, 2011 at 1:37 PM

I don’t think she has a chance. That said, I don’t think Romney or Huntsman has a chance either.

E L Frederick (Sniper One) on August 22, 2011 at 1:37 PM

She’ll run… to keep her cult going… and then demand a speaking slot at the convention… to keep her cult going.

If she was smart she would have shot down running for president a long time ago… nobody likes this toying at all. Her only serious shot to be relevant again is to run in Alaska and win either the House or one of the Senate seats.

ninjapirate on August 22, 2011 at 1:37 PM

Ed just wants a large comment thread so he’s stealing the headline before AP does.

NotCoach on August 22, 2011 at 1:37 PM

hrh40 on August 22, 2011 at 1:34 PM

Ed said Palin’s political career was finished when she quit the Governorship. He has the firmest possible grasp on conventional wisdom. So you can take his prognosticatin’ to the bank.

Missy on August 22, 2011 at 1:37 PM

Politicians don’t win the Iowa caucus with showy, one-off events.

True.

Now, if only there had been a well-attended movie launch & a visit to the Iowa state fair leading up to this, and the potential for additional “non-one-off” events in coming months…

/s

Palin would need to win Iowa to have a path to the nomination

Win Iowa or go home?

Says who, the same pundit who declared her political death after the resignation?

Ed, you are generally an insightful and evenhanded pundit, but it is my opinion that you have a huge blind spot for this particular potential candidate…

And yes, I’m a Palinista, so I’ve probably got one too!

cs89 on August 22, 2011 at 1:38 PM

Congratulations, Ed.

You’ve added your 2 cents to the MSM and GOP Estab “dead fish go with the flow” folks that “Palin MUST get in around Labor Day or she’s dead in the water” narrative.

Collect your brownie points over here. I’m sure they’re worth it.

It’s very obvious the drumbeat that if Palin doesn’t announce on Labor Day, she’s through, is intentional – just like all the other false narratives that GOP Establishment has been cooking up with media and bloggers.

HotAir and RedState are twins in their collective water carrying for the Establishment.

I noticed you published Rasmussen (GOP/Romney pollster for hire) poll of Palin vs. Obama with NO commentary that Rasmussen REFUSES to include Palin in recent Repub polls – while including PERRY BEFORE he officially announced.

Again. Job well done.

Rove et. al. is pleased with you today.

hrh40 on August 22, 2011 at 1:34 PM

Ed Ziegler wouldn’t do that…

the_nile on August 22, 2011 at 1:38 PM

Go Sarah go!!!!!

csdeven on August 22, 2011 at 1:28 PM

I love your humor.

moonsbreath on August 22, 2011 at 1:38 PM

Go Sarah go!!!!!

I agree!!

jeglinas on August 22, 2011 at 1:39 PM

And what was the early poll between Reagan and Carter? It had to be almost this bad. I’ll just say this about Palin running and that if she doesn’t do it this time I believe her aura will slowly fade away. She is the type personality that will do best against an un-American like Obama rather than a process and policy person down the road. She has the fire and the charisma to pound him while on the stump and project a positive and hopeful vision of our nation’s future at the same time. She needs Obama as her foil to unleash her talents of heart felt oratory and to contrast her selfless service she has offered to her country..

inspectorudy on August 22, 2011 at 1:39 PM

Ed said Palin’s political career was finished when she quit the Governorship. He has the firmest possible grasp on conventional wisdom. So you can take his prognosticatin’ to the bank.

Missy on August 22, 2011 at 1:37 PM

By betting against it.

gryphon202 on August 22, 2011 at 1:40 PM

20% of self-identified conservatives go to Obama…

]

No matter how one slices it NOT conservatives. Probably some Ronulans in there.

NotCoach on August 22, 2011 at 1:40 PM

From Headlines via Free Republic:

WASHINGTON, Jan. 20 (1979)–President Carter would easily defeat either former Gov. Ronald Reagan of California or former President Gerald R. Ford if the election were held today, according to the Gallup Poll…

A Gallup Poll from Dec 1978 showed Carter with a huge 57-35 lead over Reagan. Up substantially from a 52-43 lead a few months earlier.

Just a reminder to those who say Obama is unbeatable or so and so can’t beat Obama or so and so is more electable or so and o will destroy the party or so and so has no chance.

Everyone has a chance.

1 posted on Saturday, November 21, 2009 8:31:33 AM by jeltz25

——————————————————————-
To: jeltz25

They’ll be saying the same thing about Gov. Palin in Dec. 2010 (off by a year and a few months).

2 posted on Saturday, November 21, 2009 8:33:12 AM by Nervous Tick (Stop dissing drunken sailors! At least they spend their OWN money.)

——————————————————————-

And,

From Conservatives4Palin.com, August 2, 2011

by Peter Singleton & Michelle McCormick

We, like most people in our broad network of folks who support Gov. Palin, believe it is a certainty she will run. But just as certainly, we have no idea when she will announce, other than what she told Hannity the other day – that she would likely announce her decision with respect to 2012 in August or September.

But we have no expectation that the Governor is going to announce on September 3. We counsel you against coming to (Iowa) on September 3, and rallying other people to do likewise, if that is your reason for coming. You will only be disappointed if she does not announce, and may miss what is going to be a deeply meaningful event…

Fallon on August 22, 2011 at 1:40 PM

Palin is kingmaker this cycle, if she endorses Perry he’s lock for nomination.

jp on August 22, 2011 at 1:40 PM

Luv ya, Sarah!

You’ll be a great Sec of Energy in a Perry/Bachmann administration!

Bruno Strozek on August 22, 2011 at 1:41 PM

gryphon202 on August 22, 2011 at 1:36 PM

Do you have a link to the numbers?

Did anyone from her group try to do an analysis of who attended the movie? Did it achieve its goal of getting her story out to people who didn’t know it or to people whose impressions were formed by the Tina Fey schticks?

I agree with ButterflyDragon’s comment that it’s not a good sign for her chances that despite the bus tour and the movie, and in the face of Obama’s continued decline, her numbers against him are not improving, but seem to be worsening.

Y-not on August 22, 2011 at 1:41 PM

Ed you couldn’t let Allah have this one huh?/

Palin 2012…

CCRWM on August 22, 2011 at 1:41 PM

The kicker, as pointed out in the headlines, is Obama leads Palin amongst women by 27 points.

As I said, Fukushima.

JohnGalt23 on August 22, 2011 at 1:41 PM

If the Labor Day event doesn’t feature Palin announcing a presidential run and a serious approach to campaigning in Iowa, she will start running out of time to compete properly in the state she will have to win in the caucus next winter.

As someone suggested earlier on another thread, if she is running she apparently believes that no matter when she announces, support will just come automatically rushing toward her, that she doesn’t need to do the traditional politicking.

changer1701 on August 22, 2011 at 1:41 PM

Pffft…

If she enters the race and falls flat on her face then we’ll all know it’s a mirage.

If, on the other hand, she enters and momentum builds, as I believe it will, this poll will be cited right next to the ones that had Reagan losing to Carter.

But we will never know until she tosses her hat in the ring.

BTW, who is the “source close to Palin”? Is it Singleton? If so, I believe he is not acting on Palin’s instructions. He is independent of Palin, in fact, if I remember correctly, he has yet to meet her.

turfmann on August 22, 2011 at 1:41 PM

Probably some Ronulans in there.

NotCoach on August 22, 2011 at 1:40 PM

Are Ronulans the Reagan Democrats?

Bruno Strozek on August 22, 2011 at 1:42 PM

In a two-way race with Palin, 20% of self-identified conservatives go to Obama, and another 19% are undecided. Palin loses every income demographic as well.

Proving that Cs, and the not-at-all independent handed the good land to the Oaf in Chief, and will do so again.

May you and your progeny suffer in hell on Earth, if you make the same mistake, twice.

p.s. I know that McCain was an azz and a poor choice, but this destruction was meant to be a wake-up call.

Schadenfreude on August 22, 2011 at 1:42 PM

conservatives and Republican voters who work in Professional circles have a hard time with Palin, because they have to deal with the drumbeat of how “Stupid” she is and so on, with not alot of defense which only serves to make themselves look ‘stupid’ to their peers.

jp on August 22, 2011 at 1:42 PM

Rove et. al. is pleased with you today.

hrh40 on August 22, 2011 at 1:34 PM

The same Rove who was running around all week saying Palin would announce her entry into the race?

Ed Morrissey on August 22, 2011 at 1:42 PM

Palinista’s heads exploding on this thread.

It’s going to be EPIC!

ButterflyDragon on August 22, 2011 at 1:37 PM

I don’t really see any evidence of that. Perhaps you’re just a little too eager.

darwin on August 22, 2011 at 1:43 PM

Are Ronulans the Reagan Democrats?

Bruno Strozek on August 22, 2011 at 1:42 PM

No. Ron Paul supporters.

NotCoach on August 22, 2011 at 1:43 PM

Palin can’t win!!!! I love her and support her but face it people she is damaged goods!! Independents/moderates can’t stand her and will never vote for her without them Obama wins…I own a restaurant and once a week I will pull a shift as a bartender, my regulars are mostly moderates and we have had this discussion..98% would never vote for her..the media did a perfect hit job on her..

Political Chef on August 22, 2011 at 1:43 PM

Ed said Palin’s political career was finished when she quit the Governorship.

And I still agree with that analysis.

E L Frederick (Sniper One) on August 22, 2011 at 1:44 PM

Are Ronulans the Reagan Democrats?

Bruno Strozek on August 22, 2011 at 1:42 PM

McGovernite Democrats who will never vote for any Conservative, ever….just Anarchist anti-war zealots like RuPaul

jp on August 22, 2011 at 1:44 PM

33%… that’s less than Ron Paul pulled in the last set of Obama vs. [insert republican] polls that I saw…

I figured the anti-Palin bias would have worn off by now, but if she isn’t close right now, the MSM lies are deeply rooted. Please don’t run Sarah. Get your base behind someone and be the king-maker.

phreshone on August 22, 2011 at 1:44 PM

Ouch! I thought she would immediately take front runner status? WTF?!!
/

cartooner on August 22, 2011 at 1:44 PM

Those of you barking at HA have the wrong target/s.

On the other hand Ed said on Levin or some such program last week that Obama is a good man, a patriotic president, just a tad misguided (words to this effect).

Meh

Schadenfreude on August 22, 2011 at 1:44 PM

Ed is reminding me of Ann Coulter – most things she says are spot on, except when she endorses candidates she’s a loon. Ed’s blind spot seems to be Palin.

At the moment, that seems to be the only evidence that Palin’s running at all — the proliferation of volunteer auxiliaries working to organize the event.

Realy?!? The ONLY evidence? REALLY?!? Guess all those policy statements on facebook, the bus tour, the visits to Iowa, the recent TV interviews outlining a platform, the ads that look surprisingly like campaign adsall that are just things for her to do to fill the time.

Seriously, Ed. That sentence is just insane.

Assuming Palin does jump into the race, she will find the pickings slim for experienced staffers and organizers.

Right – cause she never said that she wouldn’t be hiring people out the the ‘same political bubble’ for her campaign…oh wait. Yeah, she did.

This analysis is quite sub-par for Ed, so I’m just going to assume that this must by a piece by Tina that got posted under Ed’s name.

miConsevative on August 22, 2011 at 1:45 PM

And I still agree with that analysis.

E L Frederick (Sniper One) on August 22, 2011 at 1:44 PM

All evidence to the contrary.

gryphon202 on August 22, 2011 at 1:45 PM

He is independent of Palin, in fact, if I remember correctly, he has yet to meet her.

turfmann on August 22, 2011 at 1:41 PM

I think they did meet a week or so ago. But you are right, he has been working on his own.

Missy on August 22, 2011 at 1:46 PM

I swear, if a headline was posted: “61% Say World Will End Tomorrow”
a huge number of people would post “oh well – it’s over”

Incredible

jake-the-goose on August 22, 2011 at 1:35 PM

If 61% of people were enough to MAKE the world end tomorrow, that would be a legitimate reaction.

Keep your head in the sand, ostrich. I swear, you Palinistas really test my appreciation for Gov. Palin. It’s all I can do to separate her from all of you in my evaluation of her.

Red Cloud on August 22, 2011 at 1:46 PM

I for one am happy about all these “Palin is waiting too long, Palin can’t win” threads. It shakes all the handwringers out of the tree so they can go back someone else. That way when she announces, those of us still standing can get to business without having to wipe a lot of noses.

Kataklysmic on August 22, 2011 at 1:46 PM

Palin can’t win!!!! I love her and support her but face it people she is damaged goods!! Independents/moderates can’t stand her and will never vote for her without them Obama wins…I own a restaurant and once a week I will pull a shift as a bartender, my regulars are mostly moderates and we have had this discussion..98% would never vote for her..the media did a perfect hit job on her..

Political Chef on August 22, 2011 at 1:43 PM

Really. Do you inform them that their perception of Palin is based almost entirely on what the media wants them to see? Do you correct any false perceptions they have of Palin or do you just go with the flow?

WTF is a moderate anyway?

darwin on August 22, 2011 at 1:46 PM

The same Rove who was running around all week saying Palin would announce her entry into the race?

Ed Morrissey on August 22, 2011 at 1:42 PM

No, the same Rove that publicly bashed and belittled another former female Tea Party candidate for public office.

fossten on August 22, 2011 at 1:46 PM

I figured the anti-Palin bias would have worn off by now, but if she isn’t close right now, the MSM lies are deeply rooted. Please don’t run Sarah. Get your base behind someone and be the king-maker.

phreshone on August 22, 2011 at 1:44 PM

Yes, this. +1

Red Cloud on August 22, 2011 at 1:46 PM

bwhaaaaaaaaaaa never so so much freaking over someone announcing.

djohn669 on August 22, 2011 at 1:47 PM

The same Rove who was running around all week saying Palin would announce her entry into the race?

Ed Morrissey on August 22, 2011 at 1:42 PM

Rove tries to define the last date for her entry.
The same rove that said she wouldn’t run now tries to dictate when.
He’s playing a game.

the_nile on August 22, 2011 at 1:47 PM

WTF is a moderate anyway?

darwin on August 22, 2011 at 1:46 PM

Oh come on.

Who hasn’t read the book, Great Moderates in American History.

fossten on August 22, 2011 at 1:47 PM

33%… that’s less than Ron Paul pulled in the last set of Obama vs. [insert republican] polls that I saw…

I figured the anti-Palin bias would have worn off by now, but if she isn’t close right now, the MSM lies are deeply rooted. Please don’t run Sarah. Get your base behind someone and be the king-maker.

phreshone on August 22, 2011 at 1:44 PM

If Paul got 10% of the MSM and Dem coverage and scrutiny he’d be in single digits and ran out of washington all together by now. His polling isn’t accurate, unlike Palin who has already been fully introduced and put through the political ringer, Paul hasn’t at all and with his past, views and associations it’d be ugly.

jp on August 22, 2011 at 1:48 PM

Yet even at this late date, Palin appears to have no real organization in the field in Iowa

You’re missing multiple articles, by Iowa Republican and others, stating the O4P organization in Iowa is more widespread and effective than most of the ones belonging to declared candidates.

VidOmnia on August 22, 2011 at 1:48 PM

So, after her bus tour (which was a “signal” she’s running) and the release of the movie (which was another “signal she was going to run) she has actually lost ground to Obama while his poll numbers plummeted in the same time frame.

Folks, that’s as clear a picture as you can get that she has no way of winning against Obama.

ButterflyDragon on August 22, 2011 at 1:32 PM

What about the Iowa crop circles for Palin, another sign?

cartooner on August 22, 2011 at 1:48 PM

Political Chef on August 22, 2011 at 1:43 PM

You should tell them to go and vote Obama since he is showing Americans how it’s done….

JVelez on August 22, 2011 at 1:48 PM

In a two-way race with Palin, 20% of self-identified conservatives go to Obama.

Yup. Polls for the general 15 months out and during primary season sure are reliable.

miConsevative on August 22, 2011 at 1:48 PM

All evidence to the contrary.

gryphon202 on August 22, 2011 at 1:45 PM

What evidence? That she has a cult following? That doesn’t take much; even Ron Paul can do that.

At least Ron Paul is in Congress and doing something politically.

I’ll stick with people who are actually making a difference (Paul Ryan, Eric Cantor; Rick Perry) and not just making speeches on TV, like Obama, Romney, Huntsman and Palin.

E L Frederick (Sniper One) on August 22, 2011 at 1:48 PM

.  In a two-way race with Palin, 20% of self-identified conservatives go to Obama, and another 19% are undecided

Okay, someone is being punked.

Count to 10 on August 22, 2011 at 1:49 PM

Rove et. al. is pleased with you today.

hrh40 on August 22, 2011 at 1:34 PM

The same Rove who was running around all week saying Palin would announce her entry into the race?

Ed Morrissey on August 22, 2011 at 1:42 PM

But, but… Rove wants Palin in the race to kneecap Perry…

ninjapirate on August 22, 2011 at 1:49 PM

If/when Michelle Malkin writes a ‘critical’ account of Palin, what will you do?

Schadenfreude on August 22, 2011 at 1:49 PM

i don’t think anybody will loose to OblameO. Only the hard core Democrat commies will vote for him.

tarpon on August 22, 2011 at 1:49 PM

She just needs more time to make people like her!

El_Terrible on August 22, 2011 at 1:50 PM

Who hasn’t read the book, Great Moderates in American History.

fossten on August 22, 2011 at 1:47 PM

Isn’t that the tome by David Frum?

/s

cs89 on August 22, 2011 at 1:51 PM

The same Rove who was running around all week saying Palin would announce her entry into the race?

Actually, Rove is stating that the 9/3 date is the “do or die” for her, which is ridiculous.

JVelez on August 22, 2011 at 1:51 PM

So, after her bus tour (which was a “signal” she’s running) and the release of the movie (which was another “signal she was going to run) she has actually lost ground to Obama while his poll numbers plummeted in the same time frame.

Folks, that’s as clear a picture as you can get that she has no way of winning against Obama.

ButterflyDragon on August 22, 2011 at 1:32 PM

This race will be closer than this misleading poll suggests.

If Hillary were running against Obama in the primary, for example, you’d see Obama’s numbers far below 40%.

I find it hard to believe that once the nominee is selected, the 17% not voting for Obama would suddenly vote for him.

fossten on August 22, 2011 at 1:51 PM

Of course Palin is going to have an event on Labor day. How else is she going to keep her television career relevant?

pedestrian on August 22, 2011 at 1:51 PM

I suppose the massive crowds and excitement Palin can generate (far exceeding any other candidate) is just more evidence she can’t win?

idesign on August 22, 2011 at 1:52 PM

I’ll stick with people who are actually making a difference (Paul Ryan, Eric Cantor; Rick Perry) and not just making speeches on TV, like Obama, Romney, Huntsman and Palin.

E L Frederick (Sniper One) on August 22, 2011 at 1:48 PM

Just making speeches? Dude, Obama is destroying America. Romney is on his way to destroying Mass-uh-chew-sits health care. Huntsman worked for Obama as a diplomat. And Palin? Well, for “just making speeches on TV,” we spend an inordinate amount of effort/time along with the media talking about her, don’t we?

On the other hand, Paul Ryan and Eric Cantor, for all their speechifying, haven’t been able to accomplish much yet. I’d be charitable enough to give them time, but the entire Republican establishment didn’t do much except speechify while they controlled the entire government from 2000-2006. And Rick Perry’s desire to make government “inconseuquential” sure flies in the face of his vaccine putsch and the eminent domain abuse that was the Trans-Texas Corridor.

You can vote for whoever the hell you want, but don’t look up at me and pretend that you have the moral high ground.

gryphon202 on August 22, 2011 at 1:52 PM

i keep reading that perry is picking up more big buck backers….if sarah is serious, i hope she has been talking with some big money donors….

cmsinaz on August 22, 2011 at 1:52 PM

Apparently sarcastic snark is the new ‘clever’ by the ABP crowd.

Yawn.

fossten on August 22, 2011 at 1:53 PM

i don’t think anybody will loose to OblameO. Only the hard core Democrat commies will vote for him.

tarpon on August 22, 2011 at 1:49 PM

I dunno … it seems like women would rather cut their throats then vote for Palin.

Announcer: Women of America! You have a choice! Obama and enslavement and misery, or Palin and liberty.

Women: We want Obama!

darwin on August 22, 2011 at 1:53 PM

33%… that’s less than Ron Paul pulled in the last set of Obama vs. [insert republican] polls that I saw…

phreshone on August 22, 2011 at 1:44 PM

Obama 41%, Ron Paul 37%

That would be a 4 point spread, as opposed to a seventeen point spread reflected by the poll in question.

JohnGalt23 on August 22, 2011 at 1:53 PM

err, lessee. We keep having these stupid polls where no one, even the vaunted Ed or AP, questions the incongruity of matching a single (made conroversial through the machinations and cooperation of the main stream media and the DNC) candidate out of a dozen Republican candidates against a single – and the only- candidate, sitting US president, who is very well known. Ed and AP then make a grand todo about the one candidate out of many lising to the single candidate on the other side in a hypothetical poll.
Comeon, folks. These so-called polls can be (and are) manipulated through statistical sloppiness and biased reporting to where the actual error may be several times the textbook statistical error. Both sides are manipulating for their own territorial reasons to include convincing the candidate in question not to run, to sucking the partisan trolls and commenters to up their thread count.

Old Country Boy on August 22, 2011 at 1:53 PM

All the dingleperrys must have gotten tired of trying to defend their messiahs record and came here to make themselves feel worthy.

wheelgun on August 22, 2011 at 1:53 PM

Ah, yes, the “Conservatives” who prefer the country ruined than to elect a reformer and budget cutter, like the owner of Home Depot.

SilentWatcher on August 22, 2011 at 1:54 PM

I suppose the massive crowds and excitement Palin can generate (far exceeding any other candidate) is just more evidence she can’t win?

idesign on August 22, 2011 at 1:52 PM

Voters not affiliated with either party prefer Obama by a 51% to 30% margin.

If you can’t carry a majority of the Independents, you can’t win.

She may generate huge excitement amongst the Conservatives; but lets face it; they are going to vote for the nominee no matter who it is.

The independents decide the election.

E L Frederick (Sniper One) on August 22, 2011 at 1:54 PM

You’re missing multiple articles, by Iowa Republican and others, stating the O4P organization in Iowa is more widespread and effective than most of the ones belonging to declared candidates.

VidOmnia on August 22, 2011 at 1:48 PM

It just doesn’t fit their narrative.

the_nile on August 22, 2011 at 1:54 PM

Actually, Rove is stating that the 9/3 date is the “do or die” for her, which is ridiculous.

JVelez on August 22, 2011 at 1:51 PM

Exactly. Its not like there’s another charismatic conservative governor in the race with a stellar record ready to lock up the votes.

El_Terrible on August 22, 2011 at 1:54 PM

Okay, someone is being punked.

Count to 10 on August 22, 2011 at 1:49 PM

No, that’s a flaw with self-identification.

I have friends that support abortion and a single payer health care system and they identify themselves as “conservative”.

Really.

ButterflyDragon on August 22, 2011 at 1:54 PM

Any poll that includes all the republican candidates dilutes the chances any one rep will score higher then Obama which makes the poll meaningless.

idesign on August 22, 2011 at 1:55 PM

You can vote for whoever the hell you want, but don’t look up at me and pretend that you have the moral high ground.

gryphon202 on August 22, 2011 at 1:52 PM

The high ground has nothing to do with it.

E L Frederick (Sniper One) on August 22, 2011 at 1:55 PM

33% for Palin at this date is an immensely positive number and should convince her to run. Palin has had almost nothing but bad press and ridicule from the MSM for the past 2 years. As for conservatives or Repubs, except for the folks that want Palin to run, they would be relatively against her as well as she would be impinging on their candidate. it is more than 14 months till the election and if she is nominated, the conservatives and the repubs come on board that gets her to approx 46% then it is the battle for the undecided(about 11%) and true independents (about 3%), if she gets half of those she is at 53% and wins and I would bet she gets at least 2/3rds of them.\

georgealbert on August 22, 2011 at 1:57 PM

The independents decide the election.

E L Frederick (Sniper One) on August 22, 2011 at 1:54 PM

Well then they shouldn’t be able to vote. If they can’t commit then we shouldn’t place the faith of the nation in their hands.

New rule: Everyone voting must be registered to an official political party.

darwin on August 22, 2011 at 1:57 PM

If Election Day was right now, President Obama would defeat the former Alaska governor 50% to 33%, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey. This marks the first time that the president has risen out of the 40s in hypothetical matchups with any of the major GOP presidential hopefuls. Fifteen percent (15%) prefer some other candidate, and two percent (2%) are undecided. …

But remember, all it will take for her to surge ahead will be her declaring her candidacy, or something.

Vyce on August 22, 2011 at 1:57 PM

No, that’s a flaw with self-identification.

I have friends that support abortion and a single payer health care system and they identify themselves as “conservative”.

Really.

ButterflyDragon on August 22, 2011 at 1:54 PM

Which supports the argument that Palin isn’t losing as many conservative votes as this ‘poll’ suggests.

fossten on August 22, 2011 at 1:57 PM

Well Palin’s cleverness isn’t working too well…
What she doesn’t get, America is looking for leadership, not a campaigner, someone who steps out, makes a decision, and run’s with it…not someone who holds back for that defining moment to announce their candidacy.
That’s what politicians do, leaders take control and move forward, and people and money follow.
A real disappointment to me, but Palin has become just another political hack, afraid to step and and lead, more than happy to make a few speeches, but afraid to make a decision because “it’s not the right time”…it’s always the right time to lead and to take leadership, if you are confident and competent.

right2bright on August 22, 2011 at 1:58 PM

Vyce on August 22, 2011 at 1:57 PM

What would Obama’s number be if he was being opposed in the primary by, say, Hillary?

fossten on August 22, 2011 at 1:58 PM

I have friends that support abortion and a single payer health care system and they identify themselves as “conservative”.

Really.

ButterflyDragon on August 22, 2011 at 1:54 PM

They’re not conservative … either socially or fiscally. perhaps you should break that to them.

darwin on August 22, 2011 at 1:58 PM

On Karl Rove

The Texas governor’s rough edges or some other factor may yet be his downfall. But the approach of the Perry posse signals not just a threat to Obama’s White House but also to the Republican ranch that Rove built for Bush. If Perry’s first week on the campaign trail is anything to go by, he’s prepared to set them both alight.

Schadenfreude on August 22, 2011 at 1:58 PM

Actually, Rove is stating that the 9/3 date is the “do or die” for her, which is ridiculous.

JVelez on August 22, 2011 at 1:51 PM

Like almost every pundit-hole , he tries to force influence.

the_nile on August 22, 2011 at 1:58 PM

Comment pages: 1 2 3 12