Obama approval rating in PA plummets to … 35%

posted at 11:15 am on August 20, 2011 by Ed Morrissey

In Pennsylvania, Democrats enjoy a substantial registration advantage over Republicans, going well into double digits.  For Democratic presidential contenders, this makes the Keystone State a must-win in a general election; there are few paths to the White House for a Democrat that don’t pass through Pennsylvania.  In 2010, Republicans took control of the state government and won the US Senate seat when Democratic turnout failed to materialize, only edging Republicans by three points in exit polling.

A new poll from Muhlenberg College suggests that Democrats might perform even worse in 2012 — and that Barack Obama may lose Pennsylvania big (h/t Curioser_Georg on Twitter):

President Barack Obama, who political experts say will need a win in Pennsylvania to retain the White House, dipped to 35 percent approval among the state’s registered voters, according to a Muhlenberg College poll released Friday. …

In the Muhlenberg surveys alone, Obama has dropped more than 10 percentage points in less than six months. In March, he held steady with 48 percent. In April 2009, a few months after he started and just after the stimulus bill was passed, Obama was at 61 percent approval in the state.

In the beginning of this month, a Quinnipiac poll had Obama at a 43/54 approval rating and a virtual tie with … Rick Santorum.  His re-elect number was slightly lower than that, at 42%, and the best Obama could do in head-to-head matchups was a 47% against Michele Bachmann in the state.  It’s even worse in the Muhlenberg College poll:

If there is any silver lining in the poll for Obama, it’s that 31 percent of Pennsylvanians say their vote in November 2012 will depend on who the Republican candidate is. And Obama still slightly edges out an anonymous GOP contender 36 percent to 31 percent.

That’s not a silver lining, it’s a pair of lead electoral shoes.  In politics, we have a term for incumbents who can only get 36% in re-elect polls: former officeholders.  Voters already know the incumbents, which is why undecideds break heavily towards challengers.  In a deep-blue state like Pennsylvania, a 36% is going to mean a blowout for Obama in all the wrong ways.

Granted, this is a smallish sample of 380 registered voters (not the more conservative likely voters), but for a statewide sample, it’s acceptable if not robust.  I don’t think anyone from Obama’s team was complaining in March when the same pollster found a 48/44 approval rating.  This is a big warning sign for Obama’s re-election chances, especially if the economy remains stuck in stagnation.  And if Obama’s doing this badly, Republicans have an opportunity to win back the Senate seat they lost to Bob Casey, Jr in 2006.

Update: In late 2010, Democrats had a 50.9/36.9 registration advantage over Republicans, which is why I called it a “deep-blue state.”  It’s one of the largest affiliation advantages Democrats have in the country — but it’s primarily comprised of the white, working-class voters recoiling this year from Obama’s economic policies and performance.  These were the Hillary Clinton voters in 2008 that Obama called “bitter clingers” and lost in the primary.

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Why so high?

faraway on August 20, 2011 at 11:18 AM

Obama approval rating in PA plummets to … 35%

And they all live in Philthadelphia.

petefrt on August 20, 2011 at 11:19 AM

That’s not a silver lining, it’s a pair of lead electoral shoes. In politics, we have a term for incumbents who can only get 36% in re-elect polls: former officeholders. Voters already know the incumbents, which is why undecideds break heavily towards challengers. In a deep-blue state like Pennsylvania, a 36% is going to mean a blowout for Obama in all the wrong ways.

You and I clearly have different definitions of “deep-blue state”.

JohnGalt23 on August 20, 2011 at 11:20 AM

It is senseless that anyone would support Barack Obama after his job ‘non’ performance. This 30% or so who do seems to represent idiotic personality worship or else those who Obama is indebted to and who are trying to protect an investment — likely both.

Lourdes on August 20, 2011 at 11:20 AM

Oh no Obama, is losing the bitter, gun clinging, bible hugging, stranger avoiders :) I don’t think he has anything to worry about as long as he can hold onto the Minnesota Lizard demographic ;)

Dr Evil on August 20, 2011 at 11:21 AM

I’m curious if 36% of the people who live in Philadelphia are also engaged in flash mobs, otherwise known as riots.

Lourdes on August 20, 2011 at 11:22 AM

PA almost always comes home to the Dem. If he’s lost PA, it’s all over.

Missy on August 20, 2011 at 11:23 AM

I’ll keep saying this until… but if it’s still in the double digits, I just don’t know what to say about how stupid so many of our fellow citizens obviously are.

Midas on August 20, 2011 at 11:23 AM

Oh no Obama, is losing the bitter, gun clinging, bible hugging, stranger avoiders :) I don’t think he has anything to worry about as long as he can hold onto the Minnesota Lizard demographic ;)

Dr Evil on August 20, 2011 at 11:21 AM

Yes, Obama keeps Anita Dunn close by in the White House despite her no longer ‘officially’ employed in his Administration. She still maintains an office there.

Lourdes on August 20, 2011 at 11:25 AM

Do I sense a trend?

Akzed on August 20, 2011 at 11:25 AM

Why so high?

faraway on August 20, 2011 at 11:18 AM

Never gets old.

Obama’s handling of the economy is in the same range .Watch for more EOs.

CW on August 20, 2011 at 11:25 AM

With numbers dropping all over, Barry should take a vacation.

GarandFan on August 20, 2011 at 11:26 AM

I may be wrong, but I think employers are going to hunker down and wait Obama out for the next 15 months. And nothing that Obama will prescribe next month will help the economy.

We’re in for an ugly 12 months leading up to Labor Day 2012. By that time, Obama will have choked off the economy so much that even liberals will be having a fit. And the media spin won’t be able to help him.

BuckeyeSam on August 20, 2011 at 11:27 AM

My collie says:

Poor Obowow. It’s going to be a 57 state blowout.

CyberCipher on August 20, 2011 at 11:30 AM

I hope his September speech puts emphasis on the job potential in the green energy world and promotes high speed rail again.

a capella on August 20, 2011 at 11:33 AM

Well,say hello to President……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….Mitt Romney.

Falz on August 20, 2011 at 11:33 AM

What happens if he doesn’t run?

cpaulus on August 20, 2011 at 11:34 AM

I keep reading these stories about Obama being in the 30s in blues states like NY, New Jersey, Pa., etc. How can he be at 40% nationally if he’s at 35% in Pa.

I may be wrong, but I think employers are going to hunker down and wait Obama out for the next 15 months. And nothing that Obama will prescribe next month will help the economy.

BuckeyeSam on August 20, 2011 at 11:27 AM

I agree with you here, BS. Businesses will hunker down, conserve cash, and wait for some certainty coming from the next administration.

PatMac on August 20, 2011 at 11:35 AM

I am going to have to point out that California is so blue that Crayola has to develop a new shade name to describe the hue. THAT, my friends, is deep blue.

Mutnodjmet on August 20, 2011 at 11:36 AM

BuckeyeSam on August 20, 2011 at 11:27 AM

IMO, the one thing he could do which would jack up confidence and excitement quickly would be a new “Drill, baby, drill” approach for our own fossil fuels. That won’t happen.

a capella on August 20, 2011 at 11:36 AM

Obama approval rating in PA plummets to … 35%

Wonder if this has anything to do with the “plummet”:

From Townhall Finance

The administration is using new interpretations of long-ago passed emission standards- standards that no administration has tried to enforce- along with vague, esoteric “visibility” standards to target older, coal-fired plants. Critics say that the EPA fails to make a case that the plants present a danger to public health or visibility, as the EPA seemed to admit when they issued a stay against adoption of the rules earlier this year.

“The stringency and cost of the new regulations provoked an outpouring of protest and some 5,800 comments” writes Heritage, “citing technical and statutory errors. Some 21 governors and more than 100 Members of Congress also raised objections. Ultimately, EPA officials were forced to acknowledge their failure to ‘calculate standards that fully reflected operational reality.’

”But as Obama tries to shore up his base of support amid blistering criticism from progressive groups, look for Obama to continue to use backdoor regulatory means to enforce, ignore or otherwise interpret laws to benefit special interests that support the president’s agenda.

How many ways can a President ignore his constitutional responsibilities before he’s qualified himself for an impeachment?

Rovin on August 20, 2011 at 11:37 AM

Sarah Palin has been referring to Barack Obama as a lame duck pResident and he may be starting to believe it.

If Obama truly starts believing that he cannot get reelected, watch for him to attempt to fundamentally transform America via executive orders. The two he issued before going on vacation (effectively ending deportations and minority hiring by the federal government) may just be the start.

Obama is more of a dictator that any President in the nation’s history.

bw222 on August 20, 2011 at 11:37 AM

Part of the Democratic lead in voter regisrations in Pennsylvania is a hangover from the primary campaign pitting Hillary Clinton against Obama. Rush Limbaugh started Operation Chaos to help Hillary and sabotage Obama. PA is a closed primary state but allows party registration and changes up to 30 days before the primary. Tens of thousands of Republicans changed affiliation (McCain had locked up the Republican nomination by then) to vote for Hillary.

PA has a Republican Governor, its US senators are split R and D, and Republicans have a substatial lead in the House. A lot of Democrat resistrations are based on family heritage, which does not hold up in the privacy of the voting booth. Pat Toomey’s win in the Senate shows that. PA is very much a swing state.

Unless things change dramatically, Obama will lose PA big.

Corky Boyd on August 20, 2011 at 11:37 AM

Whats going to be big is the “tune out” factor.
A pretty solid majority now believes this guy is a leftist of the first order. Nothing he will do the next 15 months is going to change that. They will want change no matter who the alternative is.
Something to be grateful for I suppose.

jjshaka on August 20, 2011 at 11:38 AM

If Obama truly starts believing that he cannot get reelected, watch for him to attempt to fundamentally transform America via executive orders. bw222 on August 20, 2011 at 11:37 AM

It is my understanding EOs can be reversed by the next president.

a capella on August 20, 2011 at 11:40 AM

IMO, the one thing he could do which would jack up confidence and excitement quickly would be a new “Drill, baby, drill” approach for our own fossil fuels. That won’t happen.

a capella on August 20, 2011 at 11:36 AM

This is my #1 issue in next year’s election (well, that and repealing OCare). Our economy runs on cheap energy. A national effort to “Drill, baby, drill” puts Americans to work, generates massive tax revenue, and money in consumers’ pockets in the form of lower gas prices. It makes so much sense, Obama will never do it.

PatMac on August 20, 2011 at 11:41 AM

Wait until those bitterly clinging 36 percenters in PA find out that their electricity bills will “necessarily skyrocket” and that the coal-industry revenue stream dries up.

Of course, all of those urban area O-bots will have their needs subsidized at the taxpayers’ expense in the name of “economic justice,” so why should they worry?

(Did the poll sample the fans of the Nittaly Lions?

onlineanalyst on August 20, 2011 at 11:43 AM

IMO, the one thing he could do which would jack up confidence and excitement quickly would be a new “Drill, baby, drill” approach for our own fossil fuels. That won’t happen.

a capella on August 20, 2011 at 11:36 AM

If I were the GOP, I’d begin developing ads warning Pennsylvanians that it’s just a matter of time that the EPA will swoop in to shut down PA’s burgeoning natural gas boom.

Two can play this scare game. And a natural-gas-scare game is much more likely than Mediscare.

BuckeyeSam on August 20, 2011 at 11:44 AM

Part of the Democratic lead in voter regisrations in Pennsylvania is a hangover from the primary campaign pitting Hillary Clinton against Obama. Rush Limbaugh started Operation Chaos to help Hillary and sabotage Obama. PA is a closed primary state but allows party registration and changes up to 30 days before the primary. Tens of thousands of Republicans changed affiliation (McCain had locked up the Republican nomination by then) to vote for Hillary.
Corky Boyd on August 20, 2011 at 11:37 AM

Aha! So,many of the PA registered Democrats are actually Republicans left over from Operation Chaos, and who are probably chomping at the bit to cast a vote against Barry in the general. That’s good to know.

a capella on August 20, 2011 at 11:47 AM

I hope this holds up so he can join Carter in the “One and Done Club.”

ThePrez on August 20, 2011 at 11:49 AM

Ed, winning that Senate seat isn’t going to be that easy (much as I wish it would be). There are really no GOPers with statewide recognition as potential candidates right now. The focus here is on which Dem in the House gets redistricted into a primary and continuing control of the state House, which the GOP won back in the 2010 election. The state Senate’s pretty much safe — Repubs controlled it over the second half of the Rendell nightmare.
Also, Casey starts with wins in the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton area thanks to the congenital Democrat vote there and his father’s reputation (unless he is tagged with the Obama label efficiently), in addition to Philadelphia. The guy I would like — Rep. Joe Pitts — won’t run. He’s in his early 70s now and he’s gonna have a stone safe district. And I haven’t heard any drum beats yet for others, though I’d keep an eye on Rep. Jim Gerlach (R-6). He did make a brief run for governor before dropping out in early 2010, which gave him some statewide recognition (not much, though — he was never really a factor). He’s western PA born, which will help a little bit out that way.
As for the Obot, he’s in deep trouble here. Under the radar, the state legislature passed — and Gov. Corbett signed — a voter ID law, which will reduce turnout in the cemetery precincts in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh.

either orr on August 20, 2011 at 11:49 AM

And a natural-gas-scare game is much more likely than Mediscare.

BuckeyeSam on August 20, 2011 at 11:44 AM

And, it’s a twofer. Energy scare plus taking a healthy whack at the EPA.

a capella on August 20, 2011 at 11:50 AM

Well,say hello to President….Mitt Romney.

Falz on August 20, 2011 at 11:33 AM

Yeah, right. He’s fading faster than the idiot in the Nationwide Insurance Commercial.

kingsjester on August 20, 2011 at 11:50 AM

It’s not just Philadelphia. It’s Pittsburgh, Harrisburg, State College, Scranton, etc. Granted, they’re more “conservative” than Berkeley, but still deep Blue.

G. Charles on August 20, 2011 at 11:52 AM

IMO, the one thing he could do which would jack up confidence and excitement quickly would be a new “Drill, baby, drill” approach for our own fossil fuels. That won’t happen.

a capella on August 20, 2011 at 11:36 AM

They are fracking for natural gas in Pennsylvania, and the environmentalist are attacking the practice on an ongoing basis. That’s what Pennsylvanians are reading in their newspapers and watching on their TVs. Fracking is bad it doesn’t matter if it creates jobs or is an alternative to our dependence on foreign oil. The anti coal industry President gave the Pennsylvanians a gift. From the WSJ,
Spending Bill Includes Gift for Pennsylvania’s Coal Country

Obama is against the coal industry except when he needs to get reelected GRIN.

Dr Evil on August 20, 2011 at 11:53 AM

Rovin on August 20, 2011 at 11:37 AM

The dems just aren’t scared yet. They think they can weather the storm and people will continue to believe in them. The only way impeachment (resignation) occurs is if the dems finally figure out that a perfect storm is in the makings and it is headed directly at them.

It took the Pubs telling Nixon they would support articles of impeachment if he didn’t resign to get him to actually resign.

chemman on August 20, 2011 at 11:54 AM

Corky Boyd on August 20, 2011 at 11:37 AM

GOP also holds the state senate, so I hope there will be a voter ID bill in the fall, when the legislature gets back in session. Might have some effect on the Philly vote, where cleared and “secured” voting machines have turend up on election day with several hundred votes already logged in.

One hopes the legislature will also follow through with some educational reform, and school vouchers. Let Junior Casey explain to Catholic Democrats why they can’t have vouchers to help pay for the parochial schol tuition these Dems shell out for because of the dreadful Philly public schools.

Junior Casey will have to deal with the PA pro-life caucus, and his vote for Obamacare, now that Sebelius has admitted she is using an accounting gimmick to subsidize abortion.

Junior will also have to explain to the coal mining areas why Obama is trying to kill coal.

PA lost a House seat so the redisricting should be interesting. Murtha’s old seat, maybe?

2012 could be fun in PA.

Wethal on August 20, 2011 at 11:54 AM

Under the radar, the state legislature passed — and Gov. Corbett signed — a voter ID law, which will reduce turnout in the cemetery precincts in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh.

either orr on August 20, 2011 at 11:49 AM

Oops! They passed it already? Awesome!

Wethal on August 20, 2011 at 11:56 AM

Just because Obama is trying to shut down coal production, oil production, manufacturing, and energy is no reason for PA to abandon him…

…oh, wait…

landlines on August 20, 2011 at 11:58 AM

DRUDGE: Obama to shut down 20% of US coal plants

faraway on August 20, 2011 at 12:03 PM

The more Obama tries to claw back, the more he’ll blow it.

I “hope” :)

CRASH!

golfmann on August 20, 2011 at 12:06 PM

Just thought I’d say hello to Hillary. She must be reading this too.

SlaveDog on August 20, 2011 at 12:09 PM

DRUDGE: Obama to shut down 20% of US coal plants

faraway on August 20, 2011 at 12:03 PM

and he wonders why the job situation is so bad. O is clueless.

CW on August 20, 2011 at 12:10 PM

DRUDGE: Obama to shut down 20% of US coal plants

faraway on August 20, 2011 at 12:03 PM

Matt has really been giving Scooter hell the last few days. Did you notice the juxtaposition of this with the statement higher up about high energy costs fueling inflation. Man, everytime Scooter turns around, Drudge gigs him.

a capella on August 20, 2011 at 12:12 PM

DRUDGE: Obama to shut down 20% of US coal plants

faraway on August 20, 2011 at 12:03 PM

Clever how they put the sun behind the steam coming out of the stack to make it look like black soot.

slickwillie2001 on August 20, 2011 at 12:13 PM

It’s not just Philadelphia. It’s Pittsburgh, Harrisburg, State College, Scranton, etc. Granted, they’re more “conservative” than Berkeley, but still deep Blue.

G. Charles on August 20, 2011 at 11:52 AM

The cities do tend to vote Democrat, and have for a long time. The big problem in PA is that the heavily populated Philly burbs that used to vote 2-1 Republican are now voting Democrat. Montgomery County is the most tragic. Voted 60-30-10 for Reagan in 1980, and went 58% for Obama. It was one of only 3 counties that went against Corbett last year (Corbett won Allegheny Co (Pitt) outright). And for scale of the problem, there are more people in Montgomery County than in the cities of Pittsburgh, Scranton, Harrisburg and State College combined.

forest on August 20, 2011 at 12:13 PM

As for the Obot, he’s in deep trouble here. Under the radar, the state legislature passed — and Gov. Corbett signed — a voter ID law, which will reduce turnout in the cemetery precincts in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh.

either orr on August 20, 2011 at 11:49 AM

Won’t help much if you’ve still got mail-in/absentee voting. That’s where most of the fraud occurs. The Dims figured out the easiest ways to scam the voting system years ago. Only the greenest crooks now actually show up at the polls.

AZCoyote on August 20, 2011 at 12:15 PM

Back in 2004″ some minority precincts in Philadelphia were found to have voted at rates of over 100 percent of the area’s population. Given what the Holder Justice Department did with the New Black Panther voter intimidation case there, it wouldn’t be a shock if 125 to 150 percent voter turnouts were ginned up in 2012, if that’s what it’s going to take to offset the voters in other parts of Pennsylvania. The Republicans in Harrisburg better be pro-active about state level oversight, because none is going to be forthcoming at the federal level.

jon1979 on August 20, 2011 at 12:17 PM

Obama to campaign for the Flash Mob vote…

PatriotRider on August 20, 2011 at 12:18 PM

The question is which Republican will appeal to PA voters. Palin would scare the suburban soccer moms, Ryan the seniors, and forget Bachmann. She has no heft.

Perry is more of a wild card. He has to show less swagger and more specifics to win the purplish suburban voters. Romney is closer to the kind of GOPer who gets elected statewide. Toomey and Santorum were unusual, and Rick did not wear well over time.

But don’t underestimate Philly’s ability to steal it… it’s still a strong union town.

PA Guy on August 20, 2011 at 12:19 PM

It is my understanding EOs can be reversed by the next president.

a capella on August 20, 2011 at 11:40 AM

On Day 1, in fact.

JohnGalt23 on August 20, 2011 at 12:21 PM

DRUDGE: Obama to shut down 20% of US coal plants

faraway on August 20, 2011 at 12:03 PM

Hey, he’s probably going to lose Ohio and Virginia anyway (and W. Virginia is too small to matter), so why not?

It’s like when he and the Mooch took separate, taxpayer-funded jet rides up to their luxury vacation resort on Martha’s Vineyard yesterday — costing taxpayers thousands of extra dollars. These two just don’t give a damn. They’re going to do all the damage they can do now, because they know their days in the WH will soon be coming to an end.

AZCoyote on August 20, 2011 at 12:22 PM

Why so high?

faraway on August 20, 2011 at 11:18 AM

-
The first 30% of his approval number doesn’t count. Those are the mentally/emotionally/racially/ideologically owned by Barry group of Americans… aka Obama Zombies.
-
For him to go lower than that there will have to be a massive wave of suicides, or some other form of idiot die-off…
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The real number is 5%…
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RalphyBoy on August 20, 2011 at 12:23 PM

Can we move Philly to one of those floating cities we heard about. Hell move Detroit there too.

CW on August 20, 2011 at 12:23 PM

The more Obama tries to claw back, the more he’ll blow it.
golfmann on August 20, 2011 at 12:06 PM

This definitely…I truly believe he made the situation worse for himself with the enactment of the “new” Dream Act this week. Makes me smile every time I see these poll numbers sink.

lynncgb on August 20, 2011 at 12:26 PM

“This time, you got me!” PBHO

Yes we do, Barry, I am sure you did not mean it for us though!

bluemarlin on August 20, 2011 at 12:27 PM

Won’t help much if you’ve still got mail-in/absentee voting. That’s where most of the fraud occurs. The Dims figured out the easiest ways to scam the voting system years ago. Only the greenest crooks now actually show up at the polls.

AZCoyote on August 20, 2011 at 12:15 PM

Exactly how are they doing that? Just falsified names? Won’t the new ID law take care of some of that?

a capella on August 20, 2011 at 12:27 PM

Or let Jersey take Philly… South Jersey is loaded with former Philadelphians who escaped the crime, bad schools and corruption.

PA Guy on August 20, 2011 at 12:28 PM

Obama to campaign for the Flash Mob vote…

PatriotRider on August 20, 2011 at 12:18 PM

He already owns 95% of it.

CW on August 20, 2011 at 12:29 PM

They fill out absentee ballots based on the people on streets lists, even those deceased. Sometimes they are stupid enough to make up names. When it looks like they’ll need the votes, they whip the ballots out.

PA Guy on August 20, 2011 at 12:30 PM

The more Obama tries to claw back, the more he’ll blow it.
golfmann on August 20, 2011 at 12:06 PM

This definitely…I truly believe he made the situation worse for himself with the enactment of the “new” Dream Act this week. Makes me smile every time I see these poll numbers sink.

lynncgb on August 20, 2011 at 12:26 PM

-
Yup… I gotta feeling that the vanilla ice-cream Palin wanna-be tour hurt Barry more than it helped… Optics count. And the economy is all his, no matter what Rangel says.
-

RalphyBoy on August 20, 2011 at 12:44 PM

Can we move Philly to one of those floating cities we heard about. Hell move Detroit there too.

CW on August 20, 2011 at 12:23 PM

Not unless you take San Francisco along too!

Rovin on August 20, 2011 at 12:48 PM

I keep waiting for Obama to have the “I don’t want to do this anymore” moment and either resign with some weak excuse or just hide out for the rest of his term.
Perhaps that’s what he’s doing?

countrybumpkin on August 20, 2011 at 12:57 PM

Under the radar, the state legislature passed — and Gov. Corbett signed — a voter ID law, which will reduce turnout in the cemetery precincts in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh.

either orr on August 20, 2011 at 11:49 AM

Don’t know about PA, but some deep blue precincts would ignore or evade such a law.

mockmook on August 20, 2011 at 1:02 PM

If Obama ever feels the election is lost, he will do everything in his power to do as much damage to the country as he can. That would include riots and marshall law. This will never be over until January 20, 2013. Ariel Durant said,”A great civilization cannot be conquered from without until destroys itself from within.” That is Obama’s gameplan.

volsense on August 20, 2011 at 1:17 PM

What these polls always forget is to add the following to any Democrat
– 198% support from dead voters
– 271% support from ACORN voters

Adding these voters in, Obama’s 36% turns into a respectable 48%.

angryed on August 20, 2011 at 1:22 PM

This proves to me that even though most voters do not pay attention to politics until close to an election, things are so bad that they can’t help but notice.

Vince on August 20, 2011 at 1:25 PM

As long as Obama gets 95% of the black vote, 85% of the gay vote, 68% of the immigration vote, 100% of the deceased vote, 100% of the communist/socialist vote to go along with the union vote these percentages are just speculative. If Obama is elected in 2012, life as we know it will cease to exist.

volsense on August 20, 2011 at 1:25 PM

Can we move Philly to one of those floating cities we heard about. Hell move Detroit there too.

CW on August 20, 2011 at 12:23 PM

Not unless you take San Francisco along too!

Rovin on August 20, 2011 at 12:48 PM

Frisco, LA, Chicago, B-more, take em all.

CW on August 20, 2011 at 1:25 PM

Obama’s biggest problem is his inexperience and the fact that he’s surrounded himself with people with an equal talent level. His address to the nation this week was just terrible and he has no advisor willing to tell him how little leadership ability it showed.

I just can’t see how his poll numbers go up unless he actually accomplishes something. If he believes accomplishment equals attacking a “do nothing Congress” he’s going to have a rude awakening a year from November.

Vote Republican and only be called a racist one more time.

bflat879 on August 20, 2011 at 1:26 PM

I agree with all the comments about PA. The tide has turned and it started with getting rid of Spector. Alot of the races were upsets in favor of Repubs….Mike Kelly is a good example. He beat a one term incubent with a household family tree name, Dahlkemper. The only true strongholds left are Philadelphia and Harrisburg and with all those wonderful flash mob beatings and robberies in Phillie those voters might be fed up.
And yes, there are alot of Repubs registered as Dems…we need to remind them of that too. I will be surprised if The One wins PA, and don’t forget OH. My family tells me alot of Independents are tired of the union stranglehold and are supporting Kasich. Time will tell, but I think we will need to work those states hard.

Deanna on August 20, 2011 at 1:42 PM

As long as Obama gets 95% of the black vote, 85% of the gay vote, 68% of the immigration vote…

volsense on August 20, 2011 at 1:25 PM

I wonder how many of those people will get out to vote this time. I’d be willing to bet they’re not as excited about this election. And they have traditionally been low voter turn-outs.

Deanna on August 20, 2011 at 1:45 PM

Pennsylvania will go to BHO in 2012. Why? Because the state is full of idiots. I’m not going to be cordial to a bunch of people who reelected Murtha even after he called them ‘racists’ and ‘rednecks’. Moreover, the inevitable race card will be played to the idiots who live there vis a vis “he’s a role model” for black youth.

You may not like what I say, but it’s all based on fact.

madmonkphotog on August 20, 2011 at 1:56 PM

I count on the right to give Michelle 4 more years of lobster-laden plates.

Schadenfreude on August 20, 2011 at 2:14 PM

With such negatives and more to come against Oboobie,all the more reason to ensure we put up the most conservative candidate that vows to undo Obama policies and regs.

AH_C on August 20, 2011 at 2:15 PM

madmonkphotog on August 20, 2011 at 1:56 PM

True, but with headlines like this:

DRUDGE: Obama to shut down 20% of US coal plants

faraway on August 20, 2011 at 12:03 PM

Pennsylvanians look to be starting to wake up out of their comas.

Nelsen on August 20, 2011 at 2:16 PM

but it’s primarily comprised of the white, working-class voters recoiling this year from Obama’s economic policies and performance. These were the Hillary Clinton voters in 2008 that Obama called “bitter clingers” and lost in the primary.

Yeah, but they were still stooopid enough to vote for Murtha (who called his own constituents racists) and the Murtha-mini-me.

CJ on August 20, 2011 at 2:43 PM

Obama doesn’t think he’s going to lose…..

When Nero was burning down Rome did he think about failing…mmmm, uh no!

Barack I is no different. He’s gonna blame the fire on the Tea Party Hobbits and rebuild Rome transform America.

Repeating history repeats.

PappyD61 on August 20, 2011 at 2:49 PM

For incumbents the important figure is not how they will do angainst an unknown opponent but how much they are above or below the all important 50 percent mark. Once, after years of close observation, a majority of voters come to the decision that an incumbents is not doing a good job, what can he do to get back in their good graces, that he hasn’t already tried numerous times?

Fred 2 on August 20, 2011 at 3:02 PM

Obama’s biggest problem is one he doesn’t know that he has. He used to have charisma, it’s GONE. In 2008 there were BIG crowds for him, now they have to put the small manufactured crowds thru background checks almost to keep out his former fans who are now disgruntled. The thrill is gone.. the thrill is gone… Obama’s not cool anymore and it’s gonna bite him on the ass.

bigmike on August 20, 2011 at 3:31 PM

I won’t get excited until I see head-to-head polling against the GOP incumbent.

Actually, being Eeyore, I’d say head-to-head against the GOP candidate and the third party (or Independent) candidate.

Dr. ZhivBlago on August 20, 2011 at 3:47 PM

If Bambi loses, is there any chance he costs Casey his Senate seat in the process?

I know he has a lot of goodwill because of his dad, but the state is getting screwed by the Dems and he isn’t standing up for them.

teke184 on August 20, 2011 at 3:49 PM

Great news for BHO!!!

It’s August 2011……not November 6, 2012.

THAT is forever to make sure his opponent is painted to be the spawn of Satan!

Give the media time.

And remember Trump is Obamas ace-in-the-hole.

PappyD61 on August 20, 2011 at 4:01 PM

35% = B+

dentalque on August 20, 2011 at 4:46 PM

Pennsylvania is a very likely bellwether. A suggestion for the guys holding the party Election Day night if PA goes our way.

Sekhmet on August 20, 2011 at 4:54 PM

Mutnodjmet on August 20, 2011 at 11:36 AM

The Crayola plant is in Easton, PA. LOL.

Preznet Jackass got 35 percent from the People’s Republic of Philadelphia, its dependent-class suburbanites (flashmobbers), and a university campus or two in Pittsburgh.

Folks in this state hate Odumbo. I do not know anyone from any political party who is voting for the idiot, not even the moonbats. We’ve had enough. The far-lefties here are calling him a moderate Republican and will abstain or vote third party. They want him to be primaried.

Run, Rick, Run. If not for POTUS, then for the US Senate.

Philly on August 20, 2011 at 5:18 PM

madmonkphotog, maybe PA is full of idiots. However, the idiots have been out of work for so long that the Hopenchange magic has evaporated. Stimulus is all gone. Looks like the bitter clingers are over it.

Philly on August 20, 2011 at 5:36 PM

Thank you, President Obama!
/crr6

The rest of us, not so much…

Khun Joe on August 20, 2011 at 6:13 PM

We ain’t the Keystone State for nothin’. And even though it’s rife with dyed-in-the-wool, hereditary, habitual, fat cat-hating taken-for-granted blue collars and SUV-driving suburban soccer Mom Democrats, and infested with malignant urban Democrat machines of all sizes, give any reason not to vote for a Democrat president and they won’t. They didn’t have that in ’08. Thanks to the WH-perpetrated disasters even the palace guard MSM can’t hide, this time around the bar may not be so high. Just don’t let the R nominee be a Huntsman or a Romney. If so Pennsy stays blue for sure.

curved space on August 20, 2011 at 8:22 PM