Obama underwater in New Jersey

posted at 10:05 am on August 17, 2011 by Ed Morrissey

That poll showing Barack Obama underwater in New York may not have been an outlier after all.  Quinnipiac finds Obama’s approval plunging neighboring — and nearly-as-blue — New Jersey.  While Chris Christie’s numbers have rebounded a little, Obama’s have slid to a new low:

President Barack Obama is headed in the wrong direction as New Jersey voters disapprove 52 – 44 percent of the job he is doing, down from a 50 – 46 percent positive score June 21 and the president’s lowest score ever in the Garden State.

Again, the gender gap is huge as men disapprove 60 – 37 percent while women approve 51 – 44 percent. Turning thumbs down on Obama are Republicans 93 – 6 percent and independent voters 57 – 39 percent. Democrats approve 77 – 17 percent. …

New Jersey voters say 49 – 45 percent that Obama does not deserve to be reelected, but say 45 – 37 percent that they would vote for Obama over an unnamed Republican challenger in the 2012 presidential race.

The independent vote is a big issue, although perhaps not in New Jersey as much as elsewhere. Democrats enjoy a large advantage in registration in the Garden State. In 2008, exit polls showed Democrats comprising 44% of the vote, compared to 28% for Republicans and independents alike.  Obama cruised to a 57/42 win in New Jersey while only getting a 51-47 split among independents — and a 14/85 among Republicans.

A big turnout of Democrats would still lift Obama to a win in New Jersey, but these numbers suggest that might be a little more difficult this time around.  Obama won Democrats 89/11 in 2008 when Hope and Change still filled the air.  He’s now down to a 77/17 in a deep-blue state — not bad, but indicative of a loss of enthusiasm.  That indicates a loss of turnout, and a big reversal among independents could make the race close in New Jersey.  That will have Democrats spending money in what is almost always a safe state on defense, which will prevent them from spending it in battleground states.

New Jersey would still be a long shot for Republicans in November 2012, but the sudden underwater status of his approval in two solidly blue states means that Obama will have to work harder than anyone thought necessary just to maintain traditional Democratic ground.

Update: This Survey USA poll in Portland, Oregon doesn’t bode well for Obama, either.  In a deep-blue West Coast city like Portland, Obama’s favorability rating is … 41/45.  Among independents, it’s 34/49, and it’s only 67/18 among Democrats.  Obama manages to be underwater among both men and women, too.

Blowback

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Just like my house.

Oil Can on August 17, 2011 at 10:07 AM

Dare we.hope…………….for change in 2012?

herm2416 on August 17, 2011 at 10:08 AM

Everyone agrees….Obama sucks!

search4truth on August 17, 2011 at 10:10 AM

I wouldn’t get my hopes up in either NY or NJ. Just because he is under 50 percent does not mean that when faced with a conservative republican (hopefully) that those disaffected voters wouldn’t hold their noses and vote for the destroyer, Obama.

eaglewingz08 on August 17, 2011 at 10:10 AM

O’Bambi can hold on to N.J. if he picks Christie as his Veep!

;)

honsy on August 17, 2011 at 10:11 AM

The man in the White Hut is not going to be happy about this…

PatriotRider on August 17, 2011 at 10:13 AM

2008: Hope and Change
2012: Change the Dope

BTW only 12% now strongly favor the idiot in the WhiteHouse.

The Rock on August 17, 2011 at 10:14 AM

His numbers are tanking because democrats are disappointed that he isn’t lefty enough, in their view. But those democrats are not going to be voting for any GOP candidate. Obama might lose Ohio, but he isn’t going to lose New York and New Jersey.

Rational Thought on August 17, 2011 at 10:14 AM

In New Jersey, turnout is determinative. The Dems have such a large registration advantage that even unpopular politicians can win if turnout is big. Obama’s bad numbers suggest to me that turnout will be a big problem for Democrats in 2012, and they will need to spend big money on election day to motivate turnout, particularly in urban areas (cash-for-votes is a tradition in New Jersey). A year ago, or even a couple of months ago, who would have guessed that was a possible scenarion?

When it’s all over it’s likely, as you say, that the President will take the state pretty safely– but down-ticket Democrats could find themselves struggling from the lack of turnout and that could have a big impact in the state.

MTF on August 17, 2011 at 10:15 AM

With numbers like this, and nothing positive to run on, the 2012 Obama Campaign will run on race politics, pure and simple..

PatriotRider on August 17, 2011 at 10:15 AM

That poll showing Barack Obama underwater in New York may not have been an outlier after all.

….

A Sienna poll confirmed the Quinn poll.

artist on August 17, 2011 at 10:15 AM

I find it hard to believe New Jersey would go to the GOP, even if the majority of the votes were for the republican.

Vashta.Nerada on August 17, 2011 at 10:16 AM

“Iceberg dead ahead!”

“OK, I’ll just start rearranging these deck chairs.”

We’re going to see a LOT of this because lefties are getting dispirited. Doesn’t mean they’ll stay home in 2012 or vote Republican, but they’re sure unhappy with Da Won. That isn’t a good sign for his chances.

teke184 on August 17, 2011 at 10:16 AM

Obama past: walking on water
Obama present: under water
Obama future: flushed

ziggyville on August 17, 2011 at 10:18 AM

As liberal as the state of Oregon is, it seems almost impossible for socialists to reject their own. Rumor has it they are trying to make conservatism a capital offense punishable by stoning. Stoning by rocks and not the recreational way.

volsense on August 17, 2011 at 10:18 AM

Everyone agrees Obama sucks

He’s a uniter, not a divider!

Emperor Norton on August 17, 2011 at 10:19 AM

Oprah gives everyone in New Jersey a Volt in 5, 4, 3, 2…..

Limerick on August 17, 2011 at 10:19 AM

Democrats approve 77 – 17 percent

(Shakes head sadly)

Del Dolemonte on August 17, 2011 at 10:20 AM

When you’ve lost New Jers… ahhhh, who the hell cares about New Jersey.

The Mega Independent on August 17, 2011 at 10:21 AM

The headline last week in the Asbury Park Press (Monmouth University Poll) had him at 54% approval in NJ. Think that poll was skewed much? This state sucks.

NJ Red on August 17, 2011 at 10:21 AM

Before you start celebrating the “awakening” of the public, be aware that if Obama were somehow able to impose full Marxism on us, his numbers would jump +20 in NJ overnight.

This slide doesn’t indicate a public move to the right.

Bat Chain Puller on August 17, 2011 at 10:21 AM

Underwater among women in Portland? Wow.

forest on August 17, 2011 at 10:22 AM

Obama past: walking on water
Obama present: under water
Obama future: flushed

ziggyville on August 17, 2011 at 10:18 AM

Brilliant.
What is with the GOP voter suppresion ad on this web-site !???

ambuldog on August 17, 2011 at 10:22 AM

Again, the gender gap is huge as men disapprove 60 – 37 percent while women approve 51 – 44 percent.

And for what do the women approve of Obama? Michelle? His inability to speak without a teleprompter? His gross mishandling of the economy? His putting their husbands out of work? And them out of work? Maybe it’s his pectoral pix in the Hawaii surf? Or more likely his stand on government paying for abortion!

Christian Conservative on August 17, 2011 at 10:24 AM

It seems like only yesterday when Obama had to hold up his teleprompter to take care of women fainting on the front row of his speeches. Ah, the good old days. I will always remember the BS that no called this idiotic deception out. I guess that happens when you turn your public educational systems over to a labor union.

volsense on August 17, 2011 at 10:24 AM

BHO, “is that coffee I smell? Is it burning?”

Mangy Scot on August 17, 2011 at 10:24 AM

When it’s all over it’s likely, as you say, that the President will take the state pretty safely– but down-ticket Democrats could find themselves struggling from the lack of turnout and that could have a big impact in the state.

MTF on August 17, 2011 at 10:15 AM

I don’t know about that…we’re ALL pretty pissed off in NJ and not at Christie. There is a movement here called GRIP – Get Rid of Incumbent Politicians. Seems to be getting attention, too. This liberal crap isn’t coming off anymore as far as I can tell. Even the unions are pissed. That would take some doing.

NJ Red on August 17, 2011 at 10:24 AM

I find it hard to believe New Jersey would go to the GOP, even if the majority of the votes were for the republican.

Vashta.Nerada on August 17, 2011 at 10:16 AM

That’s ok. We don’t need New Jersey in order to win. But if he’s doing this badly there, it means Pennsylvania, Maine, and New Hampshire are almost certainly in play. Dude’s in big trouble.

Doughboy on August 17, 2011 at 10:24 AM

New York and New Jersey aren’t pivotal for the GOP. There is a very clear path to victory around those places. They certainly aren’t important enough for us nominate a “squish” just to get their votes at the sure expense of base votes elsewhere in the nation.

HondaV65 on August 17, 2011 at 10:26 AM

I wouldn’t get my hopes up in either NY or NJ. Just because he is under 50 percent does not mean that when faced with a conservative republican (hopefully) that those disaffected voters wouldn’t hold their noses and vote for the destroyer, Obama.

eaglewingz08 on August 17, 2011 at 10:10 AM

No, but New York-New Jersey is an incredibly expensive media market (and for southern New Jersey, Phiadelphia isn’t cheap, either). Obama needs a huge turnout in the NYC metro area, while in the case of New York, the Republicans don’t have to focus on turnout as much down there, but if they think the state’s in play, can put money into the cheaper upstate TV markets, where the Red votes are, in hopes of ginning up the turnout.

The worse the polls are in areas like this, the less money Obama is going to have to flood the markets in the perceived swing states with ads next year like Florida or Ohio. And if similar polls start showing up in California, Team Obama’s going to burn through that million billion zillion they say they’re going to raise in campaign cash in a hurry. The Republican nominee can win the presidency without New York, New Jersey or California. Obama can’t.

jon1979 on August 17, 2011 at 10:26 AM

A big turnout of Democrats would still lift Obama to a win in New Jersey, but these numbers suggest that might be a little more difficult this time around. Obama won Democrats 89/11 in 2008 when Hope and Change still filled the air. He’s now down to a 77/17 in a deep-blue state — not bad, but indicative of a loss of enthusiasm. That indicates a loss of turnout, and a big reversal among independents could make the race close in New Jersey. That will have Democrats spending money in what is almost always a safe state on defense, which will prevent them from spending it in battleground states.

This is exactly why the libs have ACORN, and Unions working for them.

capejasmine on August 17, 2011 at 10:27 AM

That’s ok. We don’t need New Jersey in order to win. But if he’s doing this badly there, it means Pennsylvania, Maine, and New Hampshire are almost certainly in play. Dude’s in big trouble.

Doughboy on August 17, 2011 at 10:24 AM

I think he’s already cooked and it’s just a question of how many downticket Dems he takes down with him.

Between the change in EVs by state and the high probability he loses Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Indiana, and North Carolina, he’s within one flipped state of being out.

This means he has to play defense in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Colorado, and Nevada already.

If he’s also having to play defense in traditionally Dem states like Joisey or New York, he’s not only cooked but will probably end up giving the GOP a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate as well.

teke184 on August 17, 2011 at 10:28 AM

With numbers like this, and nothing positive to run on, the 2012 Obama Campaign will run on race politics, pure and simple..

PatriotRider on August 17, 2011 at 10:15 AM
/////
Of course,look at the help from the idiotic media…seeing how much coverage they are giving to all the racial attacks lately.

ohiobabe on August 17, 2011 at 10:29 AM

It is as I said in a previous thread: Obama’s support has entirely collapsed when the real data is analyzed — not the faked-up, PR-pap spooned out to Americans in the “news polls”. Republican leaders recognize that their 2012 nominee is likely to be the next President, so are expediting plans once made for 2016.

Strap yourselves down, we are in for a bumpy ride!

Mutnodjmet on August 17, 2011 at 10:30 AM

His approval could be 0, and he’ll still get at least 40% of the vote because there’s about 40% who won’t vote for anything but a Democrat.

John Deaux on August 17, 2011 at 10:31 AM

The man in the White Hut is not going to be happy about this…
PatriotRider on August 17, 2011 at 10:13 AM

I laughed. Not sure why but I did.

Actually I do know why….

Bishop on August 17, 2011 at 10:32 AM

Everyone agrees….Obama sucks!

search4truth on August 17, 2011 at 10:10 AM

Amen! Take a look at this flag flying near Ft. Worth, Texas. It’ll make your day!

http://www.wfaa.com/news/local/Trophy-Club-homeowners-Obama-flag-stirs-emotions-125177929.html

parteagirl on August 17, 2011 at 10:33 AM

Bada Bing!

cmsinaz on August 17, 2011 at 10:33 AM

I had New Jersey as a solid win for Obama, along with New York and California, with the other “fifty-four” states going to the Republican candidate.

Rovin on August 17, 2011 at 10:33 AM

I have said all along that I think NJ could easily go GOP

ConservativePartyNow on August 17, 2011 at 10:34 AM

I had New Jersey as a solid win for Obama, along with New York and California, with the other “fifty-four” states going to the Republican candidate.

Rovin on August 17, 2011 at 10:33 AM

You’re forgetting Dem Central, which will give its 3 EVs to Barry even if he gets caught with a hooker and a crackpipe in a hotel room.

teke184 on August 17, 2011 at 10:34 AM

If you look at what’s driving these numbers, this bus tour could force him down even further. He’s making assertions, about Republicans, that few, but the rabid kool-aid drinkers will believe. He’s whining about the bad luck he’s had, and trying to convince people they had this thing licked. All the while people are looking for leadership and he’s making it obvious, he’s not it.

Anyone want to bet on lower poll numbers, just before he goes on vacation? Thanks to Ed Schultz for making my signature line more apt.

VOte Republican and only be called a racist one more time.

bflat879 on August 17, 2011 at 10:35 AM

Sorry, that link didn’t work. Try this one:

http://www.wfaa.com/news/local/Trophy-Club-homeowners-Obama-flag-stirs-emotions-125177929.html

parteagirl on August 17, 2011 at 10:37 AM

You teased me with that headline. I thought you meant “he sleeps with the fishes”.

Extrafishy on August 17, 2011 at 10:39 AM

Seriously. Can’t a man just eat his waffle?

UnderstandingisPower on August 17, 2011 at 10:39 AM

Not to worry….
The Obama PR machine will be cranking up the fear machine soon to keep the wavering Dems in line:
- Vote Republican and lose your food stamps.
- Vote Republican and the rich will pay less taxes.
- Vote Republican and gays will lose the marriage thing.
- Vote Repubilican and you are a racist.

albill on August 17, 2011 at 10:40 AM

PBHO should drive up to New Jersey during his “SHUT UP I’M TALKING!” listening tour.

Bishop on August 17, 2011 at 10:41 AM

Agree with above…..these libs may dislike dear leader but they’ll vote for him anyway….

cmsinaz on August 17, 2011 at 10:44 AM

You’re forgetting Dem Central, which will give its 3 EVs to Barry even if he gets caught with a hooker and a crackpipe in a hotel room.

teke184 on August 17, 2011 at 10:34 AM

Whoops, your right teke. But what if they found some rifles that were stamped: “property of the ATF”?

Rovin on August 17, 2011 at 10:45 AM

If you’re underwater in New Jersey, you’re probably wearing cement shoes …..

Jerome Horwitz on August 17, 2011 at 10:47 AM

During every Presidential campaign, people start talking about New Jersey being in play (remember the 9/11 voter push for Bush). But it never materializes. If Obama loses New Jersey, he will lose in 40 other states…and I don’t think this race will be a blow out. This race will be for the middle 10% of independant voters. Obama may lose, but it will be close and he will most likely win New Jersey…

But it is fun to watch his support in these states drop.

RedSoxNation on August 17, 2011 at 10:48 AM

OT: Front pic on Drudge of Obozo is a photo-shoppers dream.

Yep, even in New Jersey Obozo sucks ….

Jerome Horwitz on August 17, 2011 at 10:50 AM

I’m thinking that a significant source in his falling ratings is due to the fact that he has become a constant crybaby.

Nobody likes a crybaby.

Dusty on August 17, 2011 at 10:51 AM

Between the change in EVs by state and the high probability he loses Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Indiana, and North Carolina, he’s within one flipped state of being out.

This means he has to play defense in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Colorado, and Nevada already.

teke184 on August 17, 2011 at 10:28 AM

Don’t forget Iowa. He won that in 2008.

Doughboy on August 17, 2011 at 10:52 AM

BTW only 12% now strongly favor the idiot in the WhiteHouse.

The Rock on August 17, 2011 at 10:14 AM

And it’s probably safe to say that this number will never change.

This is the segment of the population that is stupid to the core.

UltimateBob on August 17, 2011 at 10:52 AM

When braindead MA rings in with similar numbers, I’ll believe.

Until then, no one ever lost money underestimating liberal stupidity.

roy_batty on August 17, 2011 at 10:52 AM

Having arrived at the Gates of Heaven, Barack Obama meets a man with a beard. ‘Are you Mohammed?’ he asks. ‘No my son, I am St. Peter; Mohammed is higher up.’ Peter then points to a ladder that rises into the clouds.

Delighted that Mohammed should be higher than St. Peter, Obama climbs the ladder in great strides, climbs up through the clouds and comes into a room where he meets another bearded man. He asks again, ‘Are you Mohammed?’ ‘Why no,’ he answers, I am Moses; Mohammed is higher still.’

Exhausted, but with a heart full of joy Obama climbs the ladder yet again, he discovers a larger room where he meets an angelic looking man with a beard. Full of hope, Obama asks again, ‘Are you Mohammed?’ ‘No, I am Jesus, the Christ; you will find Mohammed higher up.’

Mohammed higher than Jesus! Man, oh man! Obama can hardly contain his delight and climbs and climbs ever higher. Once again, he reaches an even larger room where he meets this truly magnificent looking man with a silver white beard and once again repeats his question: ‘Are you Mohammed?’ he gasps as he is by now, totally out of breath from all his climbing. ‘No, my son, I am Almighty God, the Alpha and the Omega, but you look exhausted. Would you like a cup of water?’

Obama says, yes please!’

As God looks behind him, he claps his hands and yells out: ‘Hey, Mohammed, two waters!’

Keep your trust in God; your President will be replaced…

PatriotRider on August 17, 2011 at 10:54 AM

In New Jersey, turnout is determinative. The Dems have such a large registration advantage that even unpopular politicians can win if turnout is big. Obama’s bad numbers suggest to me that turnout will be a big problem for Democrats in 2012, and they will need to spend big money on election day to motivate turnout, particularly in urban areas (cash-for-votes is a tradition in New Jersey). A year ago, or even a couple of months ago, who would have guessed that was a possible scenarion?

When it’s all over it’s likely, as you say, that the President will take the state pretty safely– but down-ticket Democrats could find themselves struggling from the lack of turnout and that could have a big impact in the state.

MTF on August 17, 2011 at 10:15 AM

No worries for the WH here, in blue states the “dead” turnout is always 100%! Plus, the Obamanable One can always count on Daffy Duck, Mickey Mouse and the Patriots starting line-up to be solidly in his corner.

Unlike ’08 the GOP had better be geared up for MASSIVE voter fraud and shannannigans from the results of Soros’ Secy of States Project. A for turn-out, having learned as a former Chicago resident, it often counts less who votes than who counts the votes. As the old DNC maxim goes, “keep counting until you get the right result.”

Archimedes on August 17, 2011 at 10:55 AM

Miss me yet?

right2bright on August 17, 2011 at 10:57 AM

New Jersey would still be a long shot for Republicans in November 2012, but the sudden underwater status of his approval in two solidly blue states means that Obama will have to work harder than anyone thought necessary just to maintain traditional Democratic ground.

Chris Christie, who is not on the ballot in 2012, could make life miserable for Obama in NJ, and force him to spend time and money there. Even if Obama holds on to NJ, the coverage in the Philly media could weaken Obama in the Philly suburbs, which could help the GOP nominee win PA.

Steve Z on August 17, 2011 at 11:01 AM

Obama’s highest unfavorability by age group in Portland is 18-34 at 46%. Of course it would be exceedingly hard for any Republican to win Oregon (although they’ll win every municipality except Portland and Eugene), but if young Portlanders are upset with him, he’s got problems. Maybe it’s just because he hasn’t been socialist enough for them, but an angry base is an angry base and it will take a lot more than propaganda bumper stickers and kewl TOTUS-reading to get them to turn out for him next year.

fiatboomer on August 17, 2011 at 11:03 AM

This is why we need unions out, and New Jersey and New York are the breeding grounds of unions.

LAMBERTVILLE, MI (WTOL) – The Monroe County Sheriff’s Department is working to solve a case of vandalism that turned life-threatening.

John King was shot in the arm last week when he surprised a man trying to slash the tires on the truck at his Lambertville home.The word “scab” was also scrawled on the side.

King says he became suspicious when he saw an outside security light outside go on.

When he stepped out of his front door, the man fired one shot and ran off.

King is the owner of the largest non-union electrical contracting company in the area.

Anyone with information should call the Monroe County Sheriff’s office at 734-240-7530.

right2bright on August 17, 2011 at 11:04 AM

HondaV65 on August 17, 2011 at 10:26 AM

+1000

phreshone on August 17, 2011 at 11:06 AM

When braindead MA rings in with similar numbers, I’ll believe.

Until then, no one ever lost money underestimating liberal stupidity.

roy_batty on August 17, 2011 at 10:52 AM

Actually, in a way they did. When Brown ran for Senate, Obama showed up to stump for Coakley and his crew had to drag people off the sidewalk in Mass and could not even half fill a middle school gym.

More people stood outside the Brown rally hoping to see and hear him than Obama addressed – at leangth – indoors. Now you may say Coakley was a poor candidate, and while that may be true, the OZombies in Mass did not come to see him in the bad weather.

And then there is the drubbing that the socialists took last November. Are people better off since then? Are they happier with the regime?

dogsoldier on August 17, 2011 at 11:11 AM

Obama might lose Ohio, but he isn’t going to lose New York and New Jersey.

Rational Thought on August 17, 2011 at 10:14 AM

No, he won’t lose NY and NJ. But these kinds of numbers in blue states indicate how vulnerable he is. He’s in deep yogurt in swing states, and now he’ll have to spend money and time defending blue territory that should be a gimme.

Missy on August 17, 2011 at 11:20 AM

His numbers are tanking because democrats are disappointed that he isn’t lefty enough, in their view. But those democrats are not going to be voting for any GOP candidate. Obama might lose Ohio, but he isn’t going to lose New York and New Jersey.

Rational Thought on August 17, 2011 at 10:14 AM

In my opinion, based on everything that I hear in NJ, the above view is just fundamentally wrong.

There are a significant number of regular Democrat voters (particularly those in businesses, or who otherwise have a focused concern over the economy) who have been very uneasy with Obama for a long, long time here in New Jersey.

I happen to live in a strongly Democrat town and have connections to people in the local business community, as well as maintaining ongoing connections to friends and acquaintances in Trenton, where I used to work. I consistently hear from (and of) people who somewhat sheepishly “concede” to me that “we Democrats should have elected Hillary.”

They have convinced themselves that she would have been much less radical, more fiscally sound fundamentally pragmatic, and that, therefore, by this time the American economy would have turned around and would be on a roll.

Of course I don’t share their views, except to the extent that they believe this guy Obama is a disaster.

Trochilus on August 17, 2011 at 11:26 AM

right2bright on August 17, 2011 at 11:04 AM

Glenn Beck talking to the victim right now.

Extrafishy on August 17, 2011 at 11:27 AM

Repeal the 19th Amendment!

SWLiP on August 17, 2011 at 11:35 AM

His numbers are tanking because democrats are disappointed that he isn’t lefty enough, in their view. But those democrats are not going to be voting for any GOP candidate. Obama might lose Ohio, but he isn’t going to lose New York and New Jersey.

Rational Thought on August 17, 2011 at 10:14 AM

Sorry if someone already commented on this. This is not about Obama losing NY’s or NJ’s electoral votes, this is about down-ticket races. If the base is not enthused about going to the polls for Obama, they aren’t going to gin up enthusiasm for other state-wide races. This is very good news for the GOP, though here in NY, the GOP is so dysfunctional that it won’t get us very good people on the ticket anyway.

piglet on August 17, 2011 at 11:44 AM

This is very good news for the GOP, though here in NY, the GOP is so dysfunctional that it won’t get us very good people on the ticket anyway.

piglet on August 17, 2011 at 11:44 AM

It’s too bad about the NY GOP. But one sterling candidate could turn that around. Maybe 2012 is the year.

Great comment about down-ticket races.

Missy on August 17, 2011 at 11:51 AM

This is very good news for the GOP, though here in NY, the GOP is so dysfunctional that it won’t get us very good people on the ticket anyway.

piglet on August 17, 2011 at 11:44 AM

There’s some give and take, IMHO.

Pataki may be no big prize, but he would be another vote toward cloture on a lot of things if he beats Gillibrand for Hillary’s old seat.

The way this election is looking, I’m thinking it will be a 1980-style Reagan-Carter wipeout, maybe not in EV totals as much as through knocking out a bunch of established Dem Senators who would have been safe under normal circumstances.

Current Dem Senate seats up in 2012:

Open – Connecticut, Hawaii, New Mexico, North Dakota, Virginia, Wisconsin

Incumbent – California, Delaware, Florida, Maryland, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington, West Virginia

Due to the poor quality of the incumbent and/or the states involved, I could see North Dakota, Virginia, Wisconsin, Florida, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Ohio, and West Virginia all flipping. (West Virginia is iffy, as it will vote red at the top of the ticket but may keep Manchin because of his personal popularity.)

If Obama’s enough of a drag on the ticket, there’s a chance that the GOP can grab a few seats they would never ordinarily get, probably in the western states like Washington or Hawaii which will still be voting long after the early results are in.

teke184 on August 17, 2011 at 12:00 PM

The scorched earth 2012 campaign will go down in the history books as the REFUDIATION of liberal progressivism. I HOPE the door leaves a bruise on their way out.

NY Conservative on August 17, 2011 at 12:04 PM

eaglewingz08 on August 17, 2011 at 10:10 AM

It’s true. NY won’t vote for a hick republican from west texas.

ernesto on August 17, 2011 at 12:06 PM

There’s an old saying about the cranberry bogs here in Jersey… ‘You never know who you’ll find when you drain them’.
-

RalphyBoy on August 17, 2011 at 12:07 PM

What is interesting is both New Jersey and New York governors are proving their citizens have an appetite for fiscal responsibility. Cuomo is going against the grain of Obamanomics and trying to dig NY out of is financial morass to a degree. Nothing more has to be said about Christie.

The Democratic weakness in these two states bodes ill for Obama. No longer can his campaign play the triage game, allocating the bulk of campaign funds to swing states, and ignoring the deep blues and reds. When they have to defend in New York and New Jersey it will get very expensive.

Maybe Hugo Chavez can help out.

Corky Boyd on August 17, 2011 at 12:23 PM

According to a tape Rush just played, you can add Detroit to the underwater polling. At a CBC rally in MoTown, Maxine Waters asked for permission from the attendees to go after Oboobie because he did squat for jobs. The response was a boisterous “yes”.

When you’ve lost the CBC… all any GOP candidate has to do is wait for the CBC to say stuff, respin it as to why Blacks should vote for the GOP this time. Heh!!!

AH_C on August 17, 2011 at 12:39 PM

The cortege is driving home. Remember this week. It will be very significant in history.

Schadenfreude on August 17, 2011 at 12:54 PM

Trochilus on August 17, 2011 at 11:26 AM

The only thing Hillary would have done different is that Gibbs, and the 20 other disastrous idiots would have been dead in plane crashes by now.

orbitalair on August 17, 2011 at 12:54 PM

orbit – best post I’ve seen all day

Ris4victory on August 17, 2011 at 1:06 PM

Sorry if someone already commented on this. This is not about Obama losing NY’s or NJ’s electoral votes, this is about down-ticket races. If the base is not enthused about going to the polls for Obama, they aren’t going to gin up enthusiasm for other state-wide races. This is very good news for the GOP, though here in NY, the GOP is so dysfunctional that it won’t get us very good people on the ticket anyway.

piglet on August 17, 2011 at 11:44 AM

Which is why we need to nominate someone who excites the base, and not just a limp RINO. If we can’t motivate our base at a time when their base is discouraged, we aren’t taking advantage of the unfolding opportunity.

dominigan on August 17, 2011 at 1:14 PM

The only thing Hillary would have done different is that Gibbs, and the 20 other disastrous idiots would have been dead in plane crashes by now.

orbitalair on August 17, 2011 at 12:54 PM

Heh.

Missy on August 17, 2011 at 1:23 PM

Wait and see Obama throw Biden under the bus and put Hillary in as VP to get the Democratic vote. He’s getting desperate and that will be a desperate move. Of course being the VP will put the Clintons back where they want to be and the tears of acceptance will roll for the good of the Nation. Choke, choke.

mixplix on August 17, 2011 at 1:36 PM

I live in Portland, and while there are still a lot of Obama bumper stickers up (perhaps out of laziness; there are a few scattered Kerry or Hillary stickers too), a few weeks ago I made an anecdotal observation.

There was this house I pass every day I go to work, and in the front yard was invariably an Obama/Biden yard sign that had been up since 2008. I’d seen it get damaged once or twice but a replacement yard sign was always put back up. Last week of July, in the home stretch of the debt ceiling thnig, it suddenly went absent and hasn’t been put back up yet.

Of course, it might just mean that whoever lived there moved out, but if not, the timing is interesting.

Tresjin on August 17, 2011 at 1:39 PM

The New York and New Jersey polls don’t matter in and of themselves. But if he’s doing this badly there, Pennsylvania may end up being a true swing state.

Revenant on August 17, 2011 at 1:41 PM

It’s true. NY won’t vote for a hick republican from west texas.

ernesto on August 17, 2011 at 12:06 PM

Nobody gives an eff what Jersey Shore thinks.

tetriskid on August 17, 2011 at 1:43 PM

45 – 37 percent that they would vote for Obama over an unnamed Republican challenger in the 2012 presidential race.

Not surprising at all…they’d cut of their noses to spite their faces ( mustaches & all ). And they’ll throw Christie out too when they get the chance….in order to reestablish the socialist state that he’s dismantled.

One good thing…the peoples republic of NJ has banned guns…from all law abiding citizens of course. So there won’t be an armed revolt.

Twana on August 17, 2011 at 2:40 PM

I wouldn’t get my hopes up in either NY or NJ. Just because he is under 50 percent does not mean that when faced with a conservative republican (hopefully) that those disaffected voters wouldn’t hold their noses and vote for the destroyer, Obama.

eaglewingz08 on August 17, 2011 at 10:10 AM

Agreed eaglewingz08. Many times we get our hopes up with early polls like this, but their side will line up the people on busses and get them to the polls to vote. And if their in Illinois, they’ll make a stop at the cemetary too. :)

itsspideyman on August 17, 2011 at 3:30 PM

Which is why we need to nominate someone who excites the base, and not just a limp RINO. If we can’t motivate our base at a time when their base is discouraged, we aren’t taking advantage of the unfolding opportunity.

dominigan on August 17, 2011 at 1:14 PM

Absolutely. I can’t take another tippytoe RINO who’s afraid to make anyone mad. They’ll never get a break from the LSM so quit worrying about what they think.

itsspideyman on August 17, 2011 at 3:32 PM

45 – 37 percent that they would vote for Obama over an unnamed Republican challenger in the 2012 presidential race.

This is why our country is in so much trouble once we let this idiot in the White House. For liberals, Obama could literally and personally take all the money out of everyone’s pockets, and they’d still vote for him.

I’ll bet the Casey Anthony jurors were all liberals too because they displayed the stupidity that’s bouncing around in their tiny, little heads…

stacman on August 17, 2011 at 4:53 PM

Meh. If Obama loses in New York, New Jersey, and especially in Oregon, I’ll be very surprised.

SoulGlo on August 17, 2011 at 7:29 PM

What is with the GOP voter suppresion ad on this web-site !???

ambuldog on August 17, 2011 at 10:22 AM

Eh, let ‘em waste their money.

Siddhartha Vicious on August 17, 2011 at 10:17 PM

I believe right before Corzine left office he changed the way NJ will factor into elections. Now we, and I think 7 other states, will give our electoral votes to the candidate who receives the most votes in total wins the states electoral votes.

If this is the case it might actually work out well for Republicans, because even if places like NY, NJ and CA go Blue if we can pull 200K votes from NJ, 300K from NY and so on and so forth than those may help flip the few Popular vote states for us.

Thats why I think Rudy is trying to act like he’s running, get his poll % up and then try for VP, because he might be able to pull enough votes in NE states to help in the Popular vote as well as enough to actually flip FL.

Rbastid on August 18, 2011 at 2:34 AM