The Tea Party is about to collapse, part 297
posted at 10:45 am on August 15, 2011 by Jazz Shaw
The opening paragraph pretty much says it all.
The reign of the Tea Party may be coming to an end in Washington, according to academic political experts who say polls show a backlash against the conservative movement.
So what data are we drawing our conclusions from this time?
The CNN poll showed the Tea Party’s favorable/unfavorable rating grew from 37 percent in October of 2010 to 51 percent in August 2011.
The New York Times poll, conducted Aug. 2 – Aug. 4, showed the movement’s popularity at 20 percent and unpopularity at 40 percent. The unpopularity rating was 14 points higher than in October of 2010.
“If you were paying attention to the coverage, the characterization of people resistant to raising the debt ceiling was they were Tea Party supporters or members of the Tea Party caucus,” said Charles Franklin, a professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin and a polling specialist. “That characterization is an element in the current apparent decline in Tea party popularity.”
It seems like I’ve been hearing about the pending implosion and disappearance of the Tea Party ever since… well, roughly ten minutes after I’d heard of the Tea Party. And yet for progressive activists, the movement continues to stubbornly hang around like that zit you don’t want to pop two days before the prom because you’re just sure it’s going to go away on its own. (And inevitably you wind up with the worst yearbook photo ever.)
Fortunately for Democrats, our balanced, dual nature society has produced an equally effective and opposite counter-movement in the form of the Coffee Party. Right guys?
Guys?
Helloooooooo?
Well, I’m sure they’ll be along presently. They’re probably just on a coffee break or something.
That doesn’t mean there aren’t some lessons to be taken from the data this study cites. There is always a danger of any movement becoming a victim of its own success by overreaching. For November of 2012, this isn’t a straw poll or a fight taking place in a single congressional district or even an entire state. National elections are always, always, always determined by the middle. No matter how much you please the base – or fail to do so – they will show up on election day. Traditionally, reaching for all the marbles in one grab risks knocking them all off the table.
Just something to consider.
Blowback
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From my perspective, as someone who believes that it’s actually the GOP corporatists that are the “far right”, (as it was previously in history), it’s humorous to me that some on the far-left and far-right have convinced themselves that common sense, like balancing budgets, is “extremist”.
FloatingRock on August 15, 2011 at 1:05 PM
“About to collapse”…………my hind leg!!!
The Tea Party aint even well warmed UP yet!!!!!!!!!!
Katfish on August 15, 2011 at 1:43 PM
As a commenter over at The Hill said:
They are absolutely right. We adults are trying to save THEIR future which is set to pay more taxes while still becoming a 3rd world country and they don’t get it!
katablog.com on August 15, 2011 at 2:17 PM
Yep, we haven’t even brought out the pitch forks yet.
katablog.com on August 15, 2011 at 2:19 PM
The negative feelings towards “the Tea Party” is directly related to media characterizations AND the self-appointed “spokespersons” of the so-called “Tea Party” groups like TPP and TPX. These folks do us no favors.
I saw the woman speaking on Fox Business for TPP during the debt crisis. Ignorant and uninformed, she gave every impression of just being stupid. I’m sure she isn’t, but if you’re going on national TV you have an obligation to have a nodding acquaintance with the subject matter.
Tea Parties have never elected or appointed any spokespeople, never taken votes on specific issues. 100% of what is ascribed to the “Tea Party” is just someone trying to latch onto the movement for their own purposes.
For instance, many were proclaiming “Tea Party” positions on the debt ceiling fight, but the actual TP rallies were against health care and spending generally, and deficit spending in particular, but didn’t really talk about the debt ceiling at all. I never saw a single sign on the debt ceiling at any TP event, or in the reporting of those from elsewhere. Not one. And if someone can dig up one, so what? It wasn’t a major topic and NO ONE has the right to say “this is the TP position” on an issue which wasn’t discussed.
So polls reflect this, but most people still agree with the actual goals of the TP – repeal ObamaCare and cut spending.
Adjoran on August 15, 2011 at 2:28 PM
The reports of my demise are greatly exaggerated.
-The Tea Party
And therein lies much of the problem. We all know where the left stands. They’re easy. But where does the middle stand? Who knows? Ask anyone in the mushy middle to articulate their principles or explain the “moderate” position on any given issue and chances are they won’t be able to do it.
The middle is typified by the kind of wobblers Frank Luntz rounds up for his annoying focus groups. These are the people who can be swayed by an answer to a debate question. These are the people who were enthralled by empty promises of hope and change and the idea of the first black president. These are the people who want spending reined in, but can’t name any programs that should be cut.
I readily admit I don’t know how to reach them. Either conservative positions are persuadable on their own or they aren’t. I don’t see any point in watering them down or applying a sugar coating so that they’re palatable to a group of people for whom, frankly, I have less regard than those on the left who at least know that they’re about.
SukieTawdry on August 15, 2011 at 2:32 PM
What are you talking about? Tea Party Patriots has been around since the beginning of the movement and we did just fine in Nov ’10. It’s only now that Boehner has hijacked most of the “tea party freshmen” that the tea party is, they claim, suffering in the polls.
FloatingRock on August 15, 2011 at 2:37 PM
A “hardline ideologue?” Well, I suppose one might consider conservatism hardline ideology and Reagan always, always ran as a conservative. There was no doubt, absolutely none, where he stood on any given issue. He didn’t couch his rhetoric to suit the audience; he used rhetoric to persuade the audience of the value of his conservative principles.
Did Reagan understand the art of the compromise? Of course he did. He cut his political teeth as a skilled union negotiator. For most of his two terms, he had a small majority of Republicans in the Senate (and they for the most part were Nixon/Rockefeller/Ford Republicans), but otherwise he had to deal with Democrats. Compromise was a political necessity but he never compromised his principles. As we know, Reagan counted his compromise with Democrats that included increasing some taxes his biggest mistake made because he expected the Dems to keep their word about spending cuts. It’s not a mistake he would have made again.
Immigration? Well, as you may recall, that was to have been the last time amnesty for illegals (who numbered in the low millions and generally speaking were not considered a big problem) would be required because by virtue of the 1986 law, the government was required to take the necessary steps to plug the leaks in our borders and visa system. Given that the 1986 amnesty actually resulted in increased illegal immigration by vastly increased numbers, I doubt sincerely you could have talked Reagan into another one.
The RINOs here might try to embrace Reagan as one of their own, but we conservatives find the idea of RINO Reagan laughable.
SukieTawdry on August 15, 2011 at 3:45 PM
I figured at its inception the TEA Party would be co-opted by the mainstream.
Rick Scott paying tea-party activist $70k in ‘public liaison’ post
I agree with the main ideas of the TEA Party, but I hope they don’t engage in social conservatism, that is, divisive issues that will only hurt the movement and drive away supporters-stick to the fiscal and taxation issues.
Dr. ZhivBlago on August 15, 2011 at 4:36 PM
This is the new meme in media. Make up the news instead of reporting it. Oh no wait… that’s still the old meme.
MrX on August 15, 2011 at 4:43 PM
I know it’s a child’s rhime. But “sticks and stones will break my bones but names will never hurt me”.
The Left and some on the Right can keep name calling but those of us who are PROUD to have the Tea Party label – are NOT GOING AWAY. We are are person by person AND person to person bringing more and more people (including young people) into our camp.
IlonaE on August 15, 2011 at 4:56 PM
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