Q2 GDP falls to 1.3%; Whoa: Q1 revised downward to 0.4%?

posted at 8:39 am on July 29, 2011 by Ed Morrissey

As expected, the US economy slowed even further in the second quarter.  After posting an anemic 1.9% in the first quarter, the Commerce Department announced that the estimate for annualized second-quarter growth came in significantly below that at 1.3%.  Real final sales of domestic product improved, however:

Real gross domestic product — the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States — increased at an annual rate of 1.3 percent in the second quarter of 2011, (that is, from the first quarter to the second quarter), according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.  In the first quarter, real GDP increased 0.4 percent.

The Bureau emphasized that the second-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see the box on page 3).  The “second” estimate for the second quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on August 26, 2011.

There isn’t a lot of good news in this report, but the real final sales number might be one less-dim spot in a dark result.  In Q1, that number only came to 0.6%, which meant that most of the growth in the first quarter came in inventory growth.  In this preliminary report, that figure comes in at 1.1%, which means that most of the Q2 growth came from actual final sales rather than inventory adjustments.  That could portend a better alignment of just-in-time purchasing to demand, which would be great news if demand had picked up instead of slacked off.

Reuters, of course, got surprised by the news:

The economy grew less than expected in the second quarter as consumer spending barely rose amid higher gasoline prices, and growth braked sharply in the prior quarter, a government report showed on Friday.

Growth in gross domestic product – a measure of all goods and services produced within U.S. borders – rose at a 1.3 percent annual rate, the Commerce Department said. First-quarter output was sharply revised down to a 0.4 percent pace from 1.9 percent.

Economists had expected the economy to expand at a 1.8 percent rate in the second quarter.

Really?  Really? Durable goods orders tanked April and June, losing more than 2% in each month, while May only saw an increase of 1.9%.  Imports increased in the final month, too, which push downward on GDP growth. Frankly, I’m surprised that the Q2 number came in as high as it did; I was guessing a positive number below 1%.  I’d bet on the next two planned restatements in August and September being downward rather than upward revisions.

Consumer spending remains weak.  Gross domestic purchases only increased 0.7%, the same as in Q1, despite less pressure from gas prices in Q2.  Personal income rose at half the level as Q1 (4.2% to 8.3%), while real personal disposable income only rose 0.7%, again the same as Q1.  Personal outlays slacked off, too, increasing only 3.1% compared to Q1′s 5.8%, but the personal savings rate edged upward to 5.1%, from 4.9% in Q1.

We can expect this to make employers even more leery about adding jobs in the next couple of months, regardless of the debt ceiling resolution.  This will show further the damaging effects of Obamanomics and the expansion of the regulatory state, especially at a time of high unemployment.

Update: The AP doesn’t pull any punches, calling this the weakest quarter since the recession officially ended in June 2009:

The economy expanded at meager rate of 1.3 percent annual rate in the spring after scarcely growing at all in the first three months of the year, the Commerce Department said Friday.

The combined growth for the first six months of the year was the weakest since the recession ended. The government revised the January-March figures to show just 0.4 percent growth — down sharply from its previous estimate of 1.9 percent. …

The sharp slowdown means the economy this year will likely grow at a weaker pace than last year. And economists don’t expect growth to pick up enough in the second half of the year to lower the unemployment rate, which rose to 9.2 percent last month.

In fact, we might start seeing net job losses again at this level of “growth.”

Addendum: One e-mailer wondered who declared the recession over in the first place.  Recessions end when GDP growth gets into positive territory; it’s a technical definition, not a qualitative expression of economic vigor.

Update II: I was concentrating so hard on the topline number and the components in Q2 that I missed this statement in the first paragraph:

In the first quarter, real GDP increased 0.4 percent.

The last revision showed it at 1.9%, which is one hell of a downward revision. It wasn’t the only downward revision, either; 2008Q4 got revised downward to -8.9%.  How did the Q1 number get revised so sharply downward?

Update III: One commenter said that the 0.4% was an increase in Q1′s GDP, not the Q1 GDP number itself.  That’s incorrect.  GDP numbers are always given as the annualized difference from one quarter to another, in chained dollars (at the moment, 2005 dollars).  If anyone doubts that the Q1 number got changed from 1.9% t0 0.4%, just download the Excel spreadsheet showing the historical estimates and look for the 2011Q1 chained-dollar figure; it’s 0.4%.

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Comment pages: 1 2

The economy is simply leading from behind.

mankai on July 29, 2011 at 8:41 AM

Thank you, President Obama.

- crr6

Good Lt on July 29, 2011 at 8:41 AM

Why does this surprise anybody? What has O’Barry done to stimulate the GDP??

I take issue with pundits especially those on the right who say O’Barry “means well”. NO HE DOESN’T. He means to force us into a Socialist form of Governement!!

NickDeringer on July 29, 2011 at 8:43 AM

an 84 trillion dollar stimulus with a public option could have pushed it above 2%.

rob verdi on July 29, 2011 at 8:43 AM

How long until we hear that this double-dip recession is Bush’s fault because it’s shaped like a W and W is Bush’s middle initial and nickname?

teke184 on July 29, 2011 at 8:44 AM

Obamanomics, what could go wrong?

tim c on July 29, 2011 at 8:45 AM

1.3% is abysmal. Double Dip here we come.

BadgerHawk on July 29, 2011 at 8:45 AM

Unexpectedly expected?

herm2416 on July 29, 2011 at 8:45 AM

If the GOP does not pass the Boehner plan, this bad economy will soon be the responsibility of the GOP. It is not fair; it is not right; but it will nevertheless be the reality of the situation. And Obama will be in office for four more years.

Pass the GD bill and move on…stop being the stupid party…we won this round of the debt battle…

RedSoxNation on July 29, 2011 at 8:45 AM

Obama’s message is that American businesses need to “step up to the plate,” and expand, so that he can bleed them dry with new taxes. For some reason, they’re just not enthused by that.

RBMN on July 29, 2011 at 8:48 AM

This is probably the Republicans fault for not raising the debt celeing 5 trillion dollars back in Q2.

BadgerHawk on July 29, 2011 at 8:48 AM

1.3% is abysmal. Double Dip here we come.

BadgerHawk on July 29, 2011 at 8:45 AM

What’s even worse is that if you revise doen the 1.3% by the same amount of the previous quarter downward revision we are in contraction…

PatriotRider on July 29, 2011 at 8:49 AM

Obamacare
Regulations
Dodd-Frank regs
Green Jobs Grifters
Excise Taxes
War on buisness
Crony Capitalism
War on Fossil Fuels
Class hatred and divisiveness
Wasted resources for trumped up projects
High Speed rail to nowhere

Thank you Democrats and MSM who focused on Palin’s wardrobe rather then the junior senator with no experience outside of crackpot leftism and political machine hackery.

rob verdi on July 29, 2011 at 8:50 AM

RedSoxNation on July 29, 2011 at 8:45 AM

This.

BadgerHawk on July 29, 2011 at 8:51 AM

Maybe the head of little Bammies “Jobs” council should stop sending US technology, manufacturing and jobs to China…

PatriotRider on July 29, 2011 at 8:51 AM

Let me be clear…it is all Bush’s fault.

SPGuy on July 29, 2011 at 8:54 AM

This is really becoming digesting and frustrating. None of those politicos, Democrats, Republicans or Tea Partiers, have any idea how to approach this problem and develop a viable solution so they result to puffing, posturing, feathering their own nests and protecting their political futures. Furthermore, in the absence of any functioning synapse connections they are all running to the edge of the abyss and throwing in their “gold watches”. In the meantime, regular hard working Americans are left wondering how their lives will be affected by this ignorant insanity. There is certainly a change coming in 2012 but it will be more massive and broad based than anyone now expects. Agree with “RedsoxNation: . . . “Pass the GD bill and move on . . .” Enough!

rplat on July 29, 2011 at 8:55 AM

This reminds me of the Enrique Iglesias story.

Vashta.Nerada on July 29, 2011 at 8:55 AM

We’re not taxing the rich enough. That’d fix it.

/

mankai on July 29, 2011 at 8:56 AM

“Shared sacrifice.”

“Eat your peas. (And, remember, you should be thanking me).”

Cody1991 on July 29, 2011 at 8:56 AM

Now that news sent a tingle up my leg !

Sandybourne on July 29, 2011 at 8:56 AM

as dippity do says, obama owns this economy

cmsinaz on July 29, 2011 at 8:57 AM

How long until we hear that this double-dip recession is Bush’s fault because it’s shaped like a W and W is Bush’s middle initial and nickname?

teke184 on July 29, 2011 at 8:44 AM

“O”

It’s the new “W”

VelvetElvis on July 29, 2011 at 8:57 AM

I may try to figure out if I come ahead leaving my IRA in the fund it’s in and see how low that value gets or take all the money out and just pay the income taxes. Either way I lose or they win.

Kissmygrits on July 29, 2011 at 8:58 AM

Please Obama, for the good of the country………..resign already

MJZZZ on July 29, 2011 at 8:58 AM

Pass the GD bill and move on…stop being the stupid party…we won this round of the debt battle…

RedSoxNation on July 29, 2011 at 8:45 AM

Agreed. 2012 will be all about jobs and the economy. Pass the Boehner bill and let the Dems own the whole damn thing. Then in January 2013 we can start to hold the Republicans’ feet to the fire since they’ll be in charge of the entire government.

Doughboy on July 29, 2011 at 8:59 AM

I may try to figure out if I come ahead leaving my IRA in the fund it’s in and see how low that value gets or take all the money out and just pay the income taxes. Either way, I lose and they win.

Kissmygrits on July 29, 2011 at 8:59 AM

Welcome to the Obama/Jarrett Utopia !

Sandybourne on July 29, 2011 at 8:59 AM

If the GOP does not pass the Boehner plan, this bad economy will soon be the responsibility of the GOP. It is not fair; it is not right; but it will nevertheless be the reality of the situation. And Obama will be in office for four more years.

Pass the GD bill and move on…stop being the stupid party…we won this round of the debt battle…

RedSoxNation on July 29, 2011 at 8:45 AM

While I think that’s true in the short term, I also think that the LSM cannot spin the ads that will be shown during the campaign season. Obama and the dems have given GOP candidates so, so much material to work with. Just about the same time folks have to head to the polls, it will all be coming together for them about who is spending all their money, who wants to raise their taxes to spend more of their money, and who is lying about that. Just like watching the collapse of the Church of Global Warming, I have faith in my fellow man (at least 51% of them!) to eventually see a scam for what it is.

Rational Thought on July 29, 2011 at 9:00 AM

If you were intent on destroying the economy, would you do anything any differently?

franksalterego on July 29, 2011 at 9:00 AM

Bernanke’s helicopter taking on fuel
Written by Jamie Coleman
July 29, 2011 at 12:46 GMT

Fears of QE3 have been ratcheted up to a a fresh plateau as GDP slows to a crawl in the US.

Inflation was firm, up 2.1% using the Fed’s favorite measure, so perhaps Bernanke launches a ferry boat rather than an ocean liner… A small QE program rather than the full-scale attempts of 2009-10 and 2010-11.

http://www.forexlive.com/

Cody1991 on July 29, 2011 at 9:00 AM

That 0.4% number… is that the revised GDP for the first quarter? That started at 2.1%, then revised down to 1.9%, was revised further to 0.4%? Or am I confusing something?

I’m confused.

BKeyser on July 29, 2011 at 9:02 AM

CNN seems to be spinning it like it’s a tremendous gain.

vcferlita on July 29, 2011 at 9:03 AM

The only questions that matter about the coming INEVITABLE economic recession/depression are: how deep? and how long?
If we elect politicians in 2012 who will cut – not reduce the growth of – government spending, who will pass a balanced budget amendment without weasel words, who will pass a flattened “fair” tax for all, who will lower taxation rates for business producers of jobs and wealth, then the pain will be short-lived and the recovery will return America to robust preeminent economic power.
Get out there now and support fiscally conservative candidates for this critical election cycle.

Randy

williars on July 29, 2011 at 9:04 AM

Damn Bush, doesn’t he ever give up, constantly ruining the economy, relentless fool…well, when Obama finally has his say, everything will be okay.

right2bright on July 29, 2011 at 9:05 AM

If the GOP does not pass the Boehner plan, this bad economy will soon be the responsibility of the GOP. It is not fair; it is not right; but it will nevertheless be the reality of the situation. And Obama will be in office for four more years.

Pass the GD bill and move on…stop being the stupid party…we won this round of the debt battle…

RedSoxNation on July 29, 2011 at 8:45 AM

Horses**t. You Boner-bots are worse liars than the Obamunists. Take yer panic mongering elsewhere.

james23 on July 29, 2011 at 9:06 AM

Really? Durable goods orders tanked April and June, losing more than 2% in each month, while May only saw an increase of 1.9%. Imports increased in the final month, too, which push downward on GDP growth. Frankly, I’m surprised that the Q2 number came in as high as it did; I was guessing a positive number below 1%

It’s a classic balance sheet recession and this turn of events should come as no surprise. With the effects of stimulus winding down, deficit spending is no longer propping up GDP or employment. Many economists, including those at the Fed, had predicted this outcome. Consumers are still reeling from the effects of the asset bubble collapse and face serious financial challenges at home, dampening consumer demand across the board. For this reason, the Fed has been far more concerned about deflation than inflation.

bayam on July 29, 2011 at 9:09 AM

Obamageddon is here, not enuf time to reverse this from now til election I fear….unless somehow the American public wises up enuf to insist all their congresscritters/senators pass CCB & make it effective immediately

huskerdiva on July 29, 2011 at 9:10 AM

First-quarter output was sharply revised down to a 0.4 percent pace from 1.9 percent.

I keep saying the numbered are completely FAKE. They have been FAKE for almost three years.

THERE WAS NO RECOVERY.

dogsoldier on July 29, 2011 at 9:10 AM

If the GOP does not pass the Boehner plan, this bad economy will soon be the responsibility of the GOP. It is not fair; it is not right; but it will nevertheless be the reality of the situation. And Obama will be in office for four more years.

Pass the GD bill and move on…stop being the stupid party…we won this round of the debt battle…

RedSoxNation on July 29, 2011 at 8:45 AM

Exactly – pass the damn bill

gophergirl on July 29, 2011 at 9:11 AM

We simply can no longer trust our country/government to Lawyers, and we must all recognize the role the media complex has played in all of this and hold them all accountable. If not, nothing will change. A people’s revolution must take place at the ballot box and in the streets.

Keemo on July 29, 2011 at 9:11 AM

Addendum: One e-mailer wondered who declared the recession over in the first place.  Recessions end when GDP growth gets into positive territory; it’s a technical definition, not a qualitative expression of economic vigor.

The problem is that people conflate “recession”, which is just the down slope of the cycle, with the underperforming portion of the cycle, where production is under the long term trend. You can still have an economy that is mired in the underperforming zone and have some positive growth.

Count to 10 on July 29, 2011 at 9:12 AM

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Jimmy Carter Variety Hour Four Years!

All malaise, all the time!

KingGold on July 29, 2011 at 9:12 AM

When the this is also revised downwards, we could find that we have officially commenced the second part of the double dip.

A Balrog of Morgoth on July 29, 2011 at 9:12 AM

How did the Q1 number get revised so sharply downward?

“Hide the decline!”-Barack Husein Obama

NotCoach on July 29, 2011 at 9:12 AM

Oh and that 1.3 is baloney too.

dogsoldier on July 29, 2011 at 9:12 AM

Change.

visions on July 29, 2011 at 9:13 AM

If the GOP does not pass the Boehner plan, this bad economy will soon be the responsibility of the GOP. It is not fair; it is not right; but it will nevertheless be the reality of the situation. And Obama will be in office for four more years.

Pass the GD bill and move on…stop being the stupid party…we won this round of the debt battle…

RedSoxNation on July 29, 2011 at 8:45 AM

Exactly – pass the damn bill

gophergirl on July 29, 2011 at 9:11 AM

You’re not exactly right… passing a bill that the rating agencies have already said is inadequate won’t necessarily get the GOP off the hook.

bayam on July 29, 2011 at 9:13 AM

The White House appears to be gaming the numbers yet again if the Q1 revisions are any indication.

He owns this sh!t sandwich and expects us all to take a bite.

teke184 on July 29, 2011 at 9:14 AM

Count to 10 on July 29, 2011 at 9:12 AM

I would contend that in order to meet the demands of a growing population growth must be above a certain level. Otherwise it is still an ecoonmy in decline even if GDP is positive.

NotCoach on July 29, 2011 at 9:14 AM

Here’s a thought: How about unleashing the private sector?

Unfortunately that’s not compatible with the ideology of the Modern Democrat party. Sad.

visions on July 29, 2011 at 9:15 AM

How did the Q1 number get revised so sharply downward?

How they did it is simple keystrokes. Why they did it is that sooner or later, your numbers have to match reality. The real question is: what are the true numbers since 2008, because I don’t think we have seen the end to the revisions.

Vashta.Nerada on July 29, 2011 at 9:16 AM

It wasn’t the only downward revision, either; 2008Q4 got revised downward to -8.9%.

Haven’t most quarters been revised downward under Obama?

Missy on July 29, 2011 at 9:17 AM

Horses**t. You Boner-bots are worse liars than the Obamunists. Take yer panic mongering elsewhere.

james23 on July 29, 2011 at 9:06 AM

Exactly. These are same panicked commentators that were suckered in by the “If we don’t enact TARP your children will die in a fire” crowd. Much like the debt itself, the Boehner plan does nothing but pass the problem on to my kids. Which is why this nation of juvenile adults is behind it apparently.

Christ people, how can you be so fckn dense. At some point the population of this country has to grow the fck up and let the bandaid get ripped off. Let it default.

ClassicCon on July 29, 2011 at 9:17 AM

The economy is simply leading from behind.

mankai on July 29, 2011 at 8:41 AM

This is the quote of the day! Thanks.

bopbottle on July 29, 2011 at 9:18 AM

…and BO is still selling this as a recovery.

jbh45 on July 29, 2011 at 9:18 AM

Oh and that 1.3 is baloney too.

dogsoldier on July 29, 2011 at 9:12 AM

Yep. Probably negative growth in reality if the the Q1 numbers are any guide.

Missy on July 29, 2011 at 9:18 AM

I call bullsh!t…

Who do they think they’re kidding here?

This economy is contracting, not expanding.

Any idiot can see that with his own eyes as he goes about his day in America.

Lies, damned lies, statistics and Obama-infused treason.

Kick the whole damned bunch of them out.

turfmann on July 29, 2011 at 9:18 AM

With posts like this one, I wish getalife hadn’t been banned.

myrenovations on July 29, 2011 at 9:19 AM

This reminds me of the Enrique Iglesias story.

Vashta.Nerada on July 29, 2011 at 8:55 AM

Hahaha.

Just keep shrinking. Just keep shrinking.

Abby Adams on July 29, 2011 at 9:19 AM

Only higher taxes, more government spending, more social programs and more regulation will fix this.

/

darwin on July 29, 2011 at 9:20 AM

You’re not exactly right… passing a bill that the rating agencies have already said is inadequate won’t necessarily get the GOP off the hook.

bayam on July 29, 2011 at 9:13 AM

A ratings agency that gives glowing approval to adding 15% more debt to a nation that is spending twice what it takes in has little credibility. A realistic plan that actually cuts spending from current levels (which we have not seen yet) would be the only thing that should prevent a downgrade.

Vashta.Nerada on July 29, 2011 at 9:20 AM

ClassicCon on July 29, 2011 at 9:17 AM

I agree. It appears we lack an actual government at the moment.

dogsoldier on July 29, 2011 at 9:20 AM

Give up on your principles Conservatives!!! Just hand Obama the money already!!!!

…..and GOP keep the team that keeps coaching us to a 0-16 record….year after year.

Obama wins……..America loses, it’s that simple.

PappyD61 on July 29, 2011 at 9:21 AM

Green shoots.

petefrt on July 29, 2011 at 9:21 AM

He He He.

I can’t wait till the general population finds out what a bunch of twerps have been in power for the last two years.

Good thing the media will not tell them. “What is wrong with the nutter tea partiers? Why we have the four trillion dollar saving budget from the POTUS with revenue enhancements and the jet owners….

IlikedAUH2O on July 29, 2011 at 9:21 AM

If the GOP does not pass the Boehner plan, this bad economy will soon be the responsibility of the GOP. It is not fair; it is not right; but it will nevertheless be the reality of the situation. And Obama will be in office for four more years.
Pass the GD bill and move on…stop being the stupid party…we won this round of the debt battle…
RedSoxNation on July 29, 2011 at 8:45 AM

Actually, there is probably a bit of irony to go around here. The unbalanced federal budget is a major cause of our lack of economic growth. Cutting off that spending might cause GDP to drop sharply in the near term, but it is essential in later growth. The problem is, how would that timing work? Would the Rs be punished at the balot box for the initial downturn, or would the President? If the recovery happens so quickly that things are alreadyooking good on election day, will the president be rewarded for the vary thing he was desperate to prevent?

Count to 10 on July 29, 2011 at 9:22 AM

We’re screwed.

AZCoyote on July 29, 2011 at 9:22 AM

You’re not exactly right… passing a bill that the rating agencies have already said is inadequate won’t necessarily get the GOP off the hook.

bayam on July 29, 2011 at 9:13 AM

The rating agencies’ play is out of DC’s hands now. In truth, it has been for a while–a point that should have been made many millions of times by now. Once CCB was tabled in the Senate it was painfully clear that DC had no appetite to stop our debt growth. The agencies had all the info they needed at that point. Now all they need to muster is the will.

Unfortunately, elected leadership thinks we the people are just plain dumb–and GOP leadership in particular IS too plain dumb to realize that sometimes you have to call ‘em as you see ‘em. Ever stating that a plan other than CCB could have any effect on our credit rating was just stupid.

johnny alpha on July 29, 2011 at 9:23 AM

Missy on July 29, 2011 at 9:18 AM

Yeah don’t get too attached to that 0.4 number either. I’ll bet its incorrect.

dogsoldier on July 29, 2011 at 9:23 AM

But Nancy Pelosi is saving the planet or something.

JammieWearingFool on July 29, 2011 at 9:24 AM

MJZZZ on July 29, 2011 at 8:58 AM

I have 2 words to discourage you from really wanting that:

President BiteMe

MJBrutus on July 29, 2011 at 9:24 AM

BKeyser on July 29, 2011 at 9:02 AM

I guess I wasn’t confused.

Ed- you’ve been following the numbers as well as anyone. It seems to me you’ve been comparing Q2 numbers negatively to Q1 numbers. Is it even remotely possible Q2 stays positive in the final analysis?

What were the 2010 Q4 numbers, initial to final? I’m looking for a trend line on revisions…

BKeyser on July 29, 2011 at 9:24 AM

That 0.4% number… is that the revised GDP for the first quarter? That started at 2.1%, then revised down to 1.9%, was revised further to 0.4%? Or am I confusing something?

I’m confused.

BKeyser on July 29, 2011 at 9:02 AM

No, you’re not confusing anything. That’s exactly what they did, revised the Q1 numbers twice, from the original 2.1% to .4% … more than an 80% downward change. And, personally, I think even the .4% is overblown. You can’t trust any of these bastards.

TXUS on July 29, 2011 at 9:25 AM

Elections have consequences.

Monkei on July 29, 2011 at 4:16 AM

Del Dolemonte on July 29, 2011 at 9:25 AM

If the recovery happens so quickly that things are alreadyooking good on election day, will the president be rewarded for the vary thing he was desperate to prevent?

Count to 10 on July 29, 2011 at 9:22 AM

It is too late for that now.

Vashta.Nerada on July 29, 2011 at 9:25 AM

Next Month’s Headline: “GOP Measures Kill The Economy, Grandma Dead, Christmas Canceled, Oil Tanks Empty”

faraway on July 29, 2011 at 9:26 AM

I’m in and out of small businesses throughout LA everyday. We’re talking small family-owned restaurants, grocery stores, donut shops as well as larger corporations. All I hear is how bad sales are off…no one buying…etc. It doesn’t take a genuis with a Phd in Economics to know we have never been in a recovery. We are heading toward a depression.

Thanks Obama.

jbh45 on July 29, 2011 at 9:26 AM

BKeyser on July 29, 2011 at 9:24 AM

Are you asking for reality or Failbama stats? Start at shadowstats.com.

The revisions have almost all been drops, but the original numbers and even the revisions were crafted values.

dogsoldier on July 29, 2011 at 9:26 AM

bayam on July 29, 2011 at 9:13 AM

Do you not realize that this is no longer about Republicans vs Democrats? I got pushed off a cliff and I’m trying to place blame while in the air falling to my death. Jeez man, wake up… The political establishment is corrupted to the point of no return.

Keemo on July 29, 2011 at 9:27 AM

Count to 10 on July 29, 2011 at 9:22 AM

Your points are well taken. However, markets are forward looking. I think that if CEOs and investors see pro-growth policies being put in to place that we will see immediate results. Remember, businesses have large amounts of capital on hand for expansion but they are not about to put in play in this environment.

MJBrutus on July 29, 2011 at 9:27 AM

Economy Grew 1.3% in Second Quarter, “Slightly Less Than Expected”.

Slightly? That’s like putting on 50 pounds and saying: I’ve gained a little weight.

PatriotRider on July 29, 2011 at 9:29 AM

I would contend that in order to meet the demands of a growing population growth must be above a certain level. Otherwise it is still an ecoonmy in decline even if GDP is positive.
NotCoach on July 29, 2011 at 9:14 AM

Well, all measures are just approximations and stand ins for what we really want to know, anyway. What you are suggesting is to looks at growth of GDP per capita, which might be a good idea.

Count to 10 on July 29, 2011 at 9:29 AM

I think it’s time for Republicans to play their trump card – ObamaCare.

Blame the economy on it.
Blame unemployment on it.
Blame the budget crisis on it.
Blame spending on it.

If there is a problem, ObamaCare is the cause. The majority of the American people will be with you. Quit trying to be statesmen (it’s not working) and be politicians.

huckleberryfriend on July 29, 2011 at 9:29 AM

It doesn’t say revised down to 0.4%. It says increased by 0.4%. Your headline update is… nuanced.

Beo on July 29, 2011 at 9:29 AM

Yup, you own it, Debbie Double-Dip.

4Freedom on July 29, 2011 at 9:30 AM

How did the Q1 number get revised so sharply downward?

How did the Q1 number get so wrong, false and manipulated in the first place.
All these numbers are bogus, it’s propaganda.

the_nile on July 29, 2011 at 9:31 AM

It is too late for that now.

Vashta.Nerada on July 29, 2011 at 9:25 AM

Cue “The Death of Darth Vader” from the RotJ soundtrack.

Count to 10 on July 29, 2011 at 9:32 AM

So far it’s another good day to be holding GLD :-)

MJBrutus on July 29, 2011 at 9:34 AM

dogsoldier on July 29, 2011 at 9:26 AM

Thanks.

I just found something somewhere else that lists the dates for the Advanced, Preliminary, and Final estimates for GDP.

Q1 (2011) went from 1.8 to 1.8 to 1.9 with the “final” released on 6/24. Now I’m wondering why another revision (same for Q4 2008, which, btw, was the low point for this recession) to Q1. Did they “uncover” some new information? Were they propping up Q1? Or are they trying to generate even more fear in the market and elsewhere ahead of this damned debt-ceiling vote?

The whole thing smells really bad.

BKeyser on July 29, 2011 at 9:34 AM

Bambi to speak at 10:20 this morning.

This should be interesting, given that he hasn’t said anything for 4 days, which has to be a record for him.

teke184 on July 29, 2011 at 9:34 AM

It doesn’t say revised down to 0.4%. It says increased by 0.4%. Your headline update is… nuanced.

Beo on July 29, 2011 at 9:29 AM

Eds comparison was to the initial lies sent out, where GDP in Q1 was 1.9, now magically is .4% with zero explanation – just thrown into the report.

If you dont understand that, run as fast as you can into the nearest wall head first.

Odie1941 on July 29, 2011 at 9:34 AM

Out: “Unexpected”

In: “As Expected, GOP Cuts Cause Depression”

faraway on July 29, 2011 at 9:36 AM

It doesn’t say revised down to 0.4%. It says increased by 0.4%. Your headline update is… nuanced.

Beo on July 29, 2011 at 9:29 AM

All GDP reports are based on increases or decreases from the previous quarter, annualized. That’s what today’s 1.3% number means, too. If you doubt that, download the Excel spreadsheet that clearly shows the 0.4% figure for Q1 in the chained-dollar comparisons that are used for publication.

Ed Morrissey on July 29, 2011 at 9:37 AM

Let’s massively raise taxes.

eyedoc on July 29, 2011 at 9:37 AM

Let’s see. Fuel prices have doubled since Obama took office. Fuel is used to transport everything and thusly contributes to the cost of everything. Corn has gone up because of demand for ethanol. A great deal of our food is based on corn or uses corn as feed. Therefore our food costs have gone up. So fuel and corn prices have increased the price of gas and groceries. Most people’s discretionary income goes to gas and groceries so they have less for other things.

But hey, core inflation (minus food and energy) hasn’t moved much.

John Deaux on July 29, 2011 at 9:38 AM

The market has dropped 600 points in 6 days.

Alden Pyle on July 29, 2011 at 9:38 AM

Eds comparison was to the initial lies sent out, where GDP in Q1 was 1.9, now magically is .4% with zero explanation – just thrown into the report.
If you dont understand that, run as fast as you can into the nearest wall head first.
Odie1941 on July 29, 2011 at 9:34 AM

Is that 1.9% annualized and .4% in that quarter? You have to be careful about these things.

Count to 10 on July 29, 2011 at 9:38 AM

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