Pew: Obama lead over generic Republican disappears

posted at 3:10 pm on July 28, 2011 by Ed Morrissey

Just how badly has Barack Obama’s standing dropped this year?  Even killing Osama bin Laden hasn’t kept his re-elect numbers from declining significantly.  Pew’s latest survey shows Obama only one point ahead of a generic Republican candidate, a statistical tie, but his 41% score is even worse news:

The sizeable lead Barack Obama held over a generic Republican opponent in polls conducted earlier this year has vanished as his support among independent voters has fallen off. Currently, 41% of registered voters say they would like to see Barack Obama reelected, while 40% say they would prefer to see a Republican candidate win in 2012. In May, Obama held an 11-point lead.

What happened?  Obama has lost independents, Pew says, and he lost a lot of them in a hurry:

This shift is driven by a steep drop-off in support for Obama among independents. The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted July 20-24 among 1,501 adults and 1,205 registered voters finds that just 31% of independent voters want to see Obama reelected, down from 42% in May and 40% in March. Where Obama held a slim 7-point edge among independent registered voters two months ago, a generic Republican holds an 8-point edge today.

This is consistent with a drop in Obama’s approval among all independents. Currently, a majority (54%) disapprove of Obama’s performance for the first time in his presidency. His approval among independents has slipped to 36% from 42% last month and 49% in late May.

The May survey was taken in the final week of the month, obviously while Obama enjoyed some of his post-OBL bump.  In that survey, independents favored Obama over the generic Republican 42/35.  That’s a swing of 15 points in the gap.  He had a 49/37 approval rating among independents eight weeks ago, and the 36/54 in today’s poll is a staggering 26-point change in the gap.

All that’s left is to find Generic Republican and nominate him or her for the 2012 election. Failing that, Pew polls on the announced and potential candidates for the nomination, and don’t find much change in their status.  Romney still leads the pack (21%) with a nine-point lead over second-place finisher Rick Perry (12%), who barely edges out Sarah Palin and Michele Bachmann at 11% each.  Perry ties Romney for the lead at 16% among Tea Party supporters, though, with Bachmann in third at 14% and Palin fourth at 12%.  Romney cruises to a lead among non-Tea Party voters with 25% to Palin’s 10%, and three others finishing at 8%.  But 25% of all non-Tea Party voters have yet to make up their minds, too, as do 20% of all voters.

The erosion of independents is a big problem for Obama.  He needs a big economic recovery to get them back in the fold, or failing that, a way to make Republicans look as bad as possible so that they don’t choose the alternative.  The depth of the fall from May’s surge is remarkable, and looks less reversible than the post-OBL bump proved to be.

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That just means more dead people need to vote now.

Oil Can on July 28, 2011 at 3:12 PM

I can only hope his advisers tell him to make more speeches like the one he made the other night.

Drained Brain on July 28, 2011 at 3:13 PM

The erosion of independents is a big problem for Obama. He needs a big economic recovery to get them back in the fold

The unemployment rate went below 400k today.

Done and done. PBHO can now coast until 2012.

Bishop on July 28, 2011 at 3:13 PM

The days of blaming Bush have now offically ended…

Ltlgeneral64 on July 28, 2011 at 3:13 PM

Awesome.

nickj116 on July 28, 2011 at 3:14 PM

Maybe people are waking up and realizing this guy is all hat and no cattle!

gullxn on July 28, 2011 at 3:15 PM

Failure to Lead.

E L Frederick (Sniper One) on July 28, 2011 at 3:15 PM

alternate headline: Racism back on the rise in the US//

ted c on July 28, 2011 at 3:16 PM

Hey, an illustrative lesson in shifting poll numbers. Remember conventional wisdom had Obama forever unbeatable and there would be decades of Democrat victories to behold.

Sharr on July 28, 2011 at 3:16 PM

The president’s tantrum last Friday is nothing like the anger and frustration of the people whose jobs and businesses his policies have destroyed, and now he walks off the field because John Boehner won’t completely indulge his shattered ideology by applying more leeches? And his spokesman berates MSM for finally summoning the courage to ask the obvious question about the emperor’s clothes?

Schadenfreude on July 28, 2011 at 3:16 PM

The days of blaming Bush have now offically ended…

Ltlgeneral64 on July 28, 2011 at 3:13 PM

Are you sure?

NoFanofLibs on July 28, 2011 at 3:17 PM

Oh the humanity! And only today Warren Buffet bemoaned the horrible waste of time these interminable fights over the budgets are.

How can He soar like an eagle when He has to govern us turkeys?

IlikedAUH2O on July 28, 2011 at 3:18 PM

He needs a big economic recovery to get them back in the fold, or failing that, a way to make Republicans look as bad as possible so that they don’t choose the alternative.


Recovery Summer 2010
Recovery Summer 2011

Republicans are Killing Christmas 2011

thanks for the tips, Ed. s/ Jay Carney

ted c on July 28, 2011 at 3:18 PM

Milennials too, in addition to: whites, blacks, Latinos and etc. The debt ceiling ‘crisis’ is just a big diversion.

The rats know the ship is sinking. 2012 will be very tough.

Schadenfreude on July 28, 2011 at 3:18 PM

And Pew isn’t exactly Rasmussen when it comes to perceived bias in polls. They tend to favor O’bama’s side of the aisle. During Bush’s 2 terms as I recall Pew would regularly have his job approval about 5-10 points lower than any other polling outfit.

Del Dolemonte on July 28, 2011 at 3:19 PM

The fact that it’s even close still means we’re screwed.

Dr. Carlo Lombardi on July 28, 2011 at 3:19 PM

Rick Perry will be our next President.

It’s over except for the clean up.

Aquateen Hungerforce on July 28, 2011 at 3:19 PM

Bumper sticker for 2012.
It Isn’t My Fault!

a capella on July 28, 2011 at 3:20 PM

Perry ties Romney for the lead at 16% among Tea Party supporters, though, with Bachmann in third at 14% and Palin fourth at 12%. Romney cruises to a lead among non-Tea Party voters with 25% to Palin’s 10%, and three others finishing at 8%.

So tea party is full of little judases huh?

1)How can Romney tie with them among anything particularly tea party people?
2) So Palin actually leads among non-tea party people but the tea partiers prefer Bachmann n Perry over her? Delusional critters.

promachus on July 28, 2011 at 3:20 PM

Time to release the bin Laden kill videos?

slickwillie2001 on July 28, 2011 at 3:21 PM

He’s leading from behind.

mankai on July 28, 2011 at 3:21 PM

When will the media remind Obama that he and all the dem senators opposed raising the ceiling in 2006? and that he was absent on topic in 2007/08?

Schadenfreude on July 28, 2011 at 3:21 PM

Bumper sticker for 2012.
It Isn’t My Fault!

a capella on July 28, 2011 at 3:20 PM

Change ‘n Hope

Schadenfreude on July 28, 2011 at 3:21 PM

Why do they not poll likely voters? I expect the polls to be focused on adults soon as Obama’s support is eroding fastest among those who vote.

Grunt on July 28, 2011 at 3:22 PM

“What happened?”

You’re kidding…

… right?

Seven Percent Solution on July 28, 2011 at 3:22 PM

I think a national referendum could petition for redress and demand an immediate election within two months.

Speakup on July 28, 2011 at 3:22 PM

Unfortunately for Obama, he’s not running against Boehner.

SlaveDog on July 28, 2011 at 3:23 PM

Pew

You can say that again

faraway on July 28, 2011 at 3:23 PM

The hyenna wants a crisis.

Schadenfreude on July 28, 2011 at 3:23 PM

NoFanofLibs on July 28, 2011 at 3:17 PM

Right. And he needs at least another six or ten years in office to reverse the ill effects of Bush and…..don’t forget how lucky we are to have the greatest president since Lincoln.

Makes me wonder about the people who rated Lincoln.

IlikedAUH2O on July 28, 2011 at 3:24 PM

Yes we can’t!

nico on July 28, 2011 at 3:24 PM

Bumper sticker for 2012.
It Isn’t My Fault!

a capella on July 28, 2011 at 3:20 PM

“IF YOU CAN READ THIS, THEN OBAMA IS YOUR NAME.”

Electrongod on July 28, 2011 at 3:25 PM

Gene Ric/John Bolton 2012!

John Deaux on July 28, 2011 at 3:25 PM

No Hope, No Change, nObama….

gullxn on July 28, 2011 at 3:26 PM

His numbers among Mexican drug cartels are way up, however.

mankai on July 28, 2011 at 3:26 PM

The fact that it’s even close still means we’re screwed.

Dr. Carlo Lombardi on July 28, 2011 at 3:19 PM

It isn’t close. This is Pew. If they’re reporting that Obama is “even” with generic Republican, it means he’s at least 5 points behind. If Pew reports that only 31% of independents want to see Obama re-elected, it means maybe 25% do — 1 in 4.

Rational Thought on July 28, 2011 at 3:26 PM

Hope for a Change

txmomof6 on July 28, 2011 at 3:27 PM

36% of “independants” still approve of this assclown? Apparantly that word doesn’t mean what they think it means.

Kataklysmic on July 28, 2011 at 3:28 PM

Meanwhile, the sample in this poll is: 34D/28R/34I. A Dem +6 spread. BRUTAL poll for Obumbler.

cdog0613 on July 28, 2011 at 3:28 PM

gullxn,

Maybe people are waking up and realizing this guy is all hat and no cattle!

Barack Obama doesn’t even have a hat.

Mike Honcho on July 28, 2011 at 3:29 PM

Who is this Romney guy?

Vince on July 28, 2011 at 3:30 PM

Time to release the bin Laden kill videos?

slickwillie2001 on July 28, 2011 at 3:21 PM

..they already have.

The War Planner on July 28, 2011 at 3:31 PM

The one who will beat The One has no entered the race yet.

Schadenfreude on July 28, 2011 at 3:31 PM

The days of blaming Bush have now offically ended…

Ltlgeneral64 on July 28, 2011 at 3:13 PM

No. they will blame Bush when obama loses in a landslide next year

ConservativePartyNow on July 28, 2011 at 3:32 PM

A New Hope 2012

ConservativePartyNow on July 28, 2011 at 3:33 PM

It isn’t close. This is Pew. If they’re reporting that Obama is “even” with generic Republican, it means he’s at least 5 points behind. If Pew reports that only 31% of independents want to see Obama re-elected, it means maybe 25% do — 1 in 4.

Rational Thought on July 28, 2011 at 3:26 PM

Yep, Pew are the stinkers that faked the grassroots push for campaign finance reform that gave us the horrible McCain-Feingold. After it was done they admitted it and threw it in our face.

Pew, as in Pepe Le Pew.

slickwillie2001 on July 28, 2011 at 3:33 PM

The hyenna wants a crisis.

Schadenfreude on July 28, 2011 at 3:23 PM

http://taxprof.typepad.com/taxprof_blog/2011/07/scaring-seniors.html

a capella on July 28, 2011 at 3:35 PM

Wow. Are people finally waking up? I was beginning to think it wouldn’t happen.

KeepOhioRed on July 28, 2011 at 3:37 PM

Rick Perry will be our next President.

It’s over except for the clean up.

Aquateen Hungerforce on July 28, 2011 at 3:19 PM

Yup.

rockmom on July 28, 2011 at 3:37 PM

Now if we could only find a generic Republic to run for President…

Queasy on July 28, 2011 at 3:37 PM

Up until this week I was going to vote for any Republican nominee against The Won. Obviously with more enthusiasm for some than others. Now I’m not so sure. This whole debt ceiling, budget and credit rating fiasco has demonstrated to me that we really need someone who is going to think big and act decisively or we are doom to more of the same.

Cindy Munford on July 28, 2011 at 3:39 PM

Anybody know where Bush’s approvals were at this stage during his first and second term?

Also, since we are ruining Christmas, are we now “the party of Scrooge” or are we “the party of grinch”?

Just wondering. I like to keep this stuff straight.

MississippiMom on July 28, 2011 at 3:41 PM

Queasy on July 28, 2011 at 3:37 PM

Everyone here hates generic Republicans.

And R’s gotta gotta stop being known as the party of the rich.

I have an issue I want handled by the talking heads on that point but nobody ever does.

IlikedAUH2O on July 28, 2011 at 3:42 PM

PEOPLE ARE SICK OF THE TAX CUTS FOR THE RICH

They just had a study showing how poor blacks and Latinos have become. In terms of net worth, that is.

IlikedAUH2O on July 28, 2011 at 3:44 PM

Obama – “Where’s ACORN now that I really need it?”

The local Dog Catcher could run for president right now and beat Barry.

GarandFan on July 28, 2011 at 3:44 PM

Also, since we are ruining Christmas, are we now “the party of Scrooge” or are we “the party of grinch”?

Just wondering. I like to keep this stuff straight.

MississippiMom on July 28, 2011 at 3:41 PM

old and busted: Party of No
new and hotness: Party of No Christmas

eh.

ted c on July 28, 2011 at 3:45 PM

YOU GOTTA DO SOMETHING ABOUT THE NET WORTH OF THOSE AT THE TOP!!!! TOO MUCH CONCENTRATED WEALTH!

WHAT IS YOUR SOLUTION????

IlikedAUH2O on July 28, 2011 at 3:46 PM

I say go after Soros and Buffet for starters.

IlikedAUH2O on July 28, 2011 at 3:47 PM

Anybody know where Bush’s approvals were at this stage during his first and second term?
MississippiMom on July 28, 2011 at 3:41 PM

Low to mid 30s in second term. Better in first term, but I can’t remember precisely,..probably mid 40s.

a capella on July 28, 2011 at 3:48 PM

Reid could have raised ceiling in 2010.

Schadenfreude on July 28, 2011 at 3:48 PM

2012 slogan…

Obama: Killing Osama and Yo Grandmomma!

SouthernGent on July 28, 2011 at 3:49 PM

I say go after Soros and Buffet for starters.

IlikedAUH2O on July 28, 2011 at 3:47 PM

Instead he goes after Murdoch/Fox, via the thug at the AG, Holder.

Schadenfreude on July 28, 2011 at 3:49 PM

Obviously the Marxist’s only hope now is to crash the system entirely and declare an emergency. Then he’ll suspend elections and declare himself the boy-king of the new USSR.

The economy can’t possibly turn around with the policies the Marxist has chosen. So really, his only hope of retaining power is to destroy the present system and then declare himself the new Lenin.

Ogabe on July 28, 2011 at 3:52 PM

Obama is such a gutless wonder, he won’t even give the list of who will get paid until after the markets close tomorrow.

http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2011/07/officials-will-brief-public-on-which-bills-will-be-paid-which-not-after-markets-close-friday.html

Cindy Munford on July 28, 2011 at 3:52 PM

This is a poll primarily of all voters. Its not worth much, because it doesn’t take into account likely voters.

RUDYJ on July 28, 2011 at 3:55 PM

Royal Flush

Key West Reader on July 28, 2011 at 3:57 PM

The days of blaming Bush have now officially ended…

Ltlgeneral64 on July 28, 2011 at 3:13 PM

Are you sure?

NoFanofLibs on July 28, 2011 at 3:17 PM

It should have ended in 2007 with the Democratic National Socialist Party taking over congress.

It most certainly ended when the Democratic National Socialist Party took over the rest of the government in 2009.

In case no one has noticed, it’s well neigh the middle of 2011.

When The Fu…. ture do people think it ended?

Chip on July 28, 2011 at 3:58 PM

Anybody know where Bush’s approvals were at this stage during his first and second term?
MississippiMom on July 28, 2011 at 3:41 PM

At this point in Bush’s first term we were barely 6 months into Iraqi Freedom. So his popularity ratings at that time were probably pretty high.

JimK on July 28, 2011 at 4:04 PM

I heard a rumor that Generic cheated on his wife. Also, I am not sure about his stance on the war, but he is a decent conservative.

jeffn21 on July 28, 2011 at 4:06 PM

SPEECHES ARE NOT Solutions.

Dennis D on July 28, 2011 at 4:12 PM

Why won’t this Generic Republican release his/her medical records to us? What is he/she hiding?!

/NYT

Left Coast Right Mind on July 28, 2011 at 4:17 PM

Cindy Munford on July 28, 2011 at 3:52 PM

we know who won’t get paid…probably the military, the mil contractors, etc, since they don’t vote for him anyways… he’ll be delighted to ‘punish’ them a little…and blame it on the heartless, cynical Reps of course…

jimver on July 28, 2011 at 4:19 PM

When will the media remind Obama that he and all the dem senators opposed raising the ceiling in 2006? and that he was absent on topic in 2007/08?

Schadenfreude on July 28, 2011 at 3:21 PM

About the same time they remind the Democrats that nearly all of them said Iraq had WMDs in 1998.

Del Dolemonte on July 28, 2011 at 4:23 PM

yeah…. with 9+% unemployment,Armageddon like fiscal policy and THE MOST juvenile behavior of ANY POTUYS in history…is it any wonder?….Why YES, his approval should be in the 30`s but I suppose there are enough die-hards still in line to keep it where it is for now.

NY Conservative on July 28, 2011 at 4:30 PM

I’d say that if enough voters want to vote for the candidate who comports himself just like a duck that’s been hit by a 2 by 4, he’s in!

Fred 2 on July 28, 2011 at 4:35 PM

These polls don’t (and really can’t) take into account those that feign support for Obama due to their fear of being called racist. His numbers are probably far worse. Really, WHO has he helped over the past 2 1/2 years? Whose life has improved? Aside from the lock step Black vote ( and really, what has Brother Barack done for you?) who does he have ? The Far Left may be crazy, but they’re not blind. Obama can easily be seen as a war mongering tool of big money. The country hasn’t been this divided in 40 years, but at least 40 years ago you could still find work, and live your life.

teacherman on July 28, 2011 at 4:41 PM

I wonder if anyone else is as tired of these endless manufactured crises as I am?

At this point, I would vote for a three-day-old ham sandwich over Obama.

hachiban on July 28, 2011 at 4:52 PM

The days of blaming Bush have now offically ended…

Ltlgeneral64 on July 28, 2011 at 3:13 PM

Not so fast…just saw some Dem ‘rat blaming Bush on Cavuto, even after Cavuto called him out on it.

ornery_independent on July 28, 2011 at 5:01 PM

It’s a long time til Nov ’12. My blood pressure should be really high by then.

Kissmygrits on July 28, 2011 at 5:03 PM

Obama has a rock solid minimum of 13% of the vote to start with, just for being a democrat. Those 13% would not abandon him if he personally kill five of their relatives in cold blood in front of their eyes. Then there are the progressive extremists, you have to understand, this additional block, on top of the 13% would never abandon Obama, as he has the coveted D after name, who all thinks those people care about success compared to rhetoric? Much like the gay loving people here on HotAir, the end result does not matter, but the feeling behind it. They still think Jimmy Carter was a good president. Obama could declare his intention to tank the economy, and they would still vote for him. That takes him to floor of around 30%.

astonerii on July 28, 2011 at 5:28 PM

Hey, an illustrative lesson in shifting poll numbers. Remember conventional wisdom had Obama forever unbeatable and there would be decades of Democrat victories to behold.

Sharr on July 28, 2011 at 3:16 PM

Just like the Third Reich! What could go wrong?

Naturally Curly on July 28, 2011 at 5:38 PM

Imho, PEW research has misrepresented it results regarding the GOP contenders.

Look at the raw data (especially question 20) and nowhere will you find the numbers that the PEW “narrative” propounds. They are different.

Here is what the raw data shows:

Nov 2010 March 2011 July 20-24/2011

ROMNEY 13 14 16

PALIN 15 13 10

BACHMANN — — 8

PAUL 8 9 8

PERRY — — 6

CAIN — — 4

HUNTSMAN — — 2

PAWLENTY 4 2 2

SANTORUM 2 2 1

Again compare to the numbers up above which was part of the PEW narrative. Nowhere could I find them in the raw data.

technopeasant on July 28, 2011 at 8:37 PM

Democrats need debt limit problems and are actively pursuing them.

exdeadhead on July 28, 2011 at 10:18 PM