Perry pulls into statistical tie with Romney in Gallup poll

posted at 12:05 pm on July 27, 2011 by Ed Morrissey

Of all the potential late entrants into the Republican nomination contest, the one who gives Mitt Romney the toughest fight is Rick Perry, according to the latest Gallup poll.  If Perry, Sarah Palin, and Rudy Giuliani all get into the race, Perry comes in just two points behind Romney and ahead of Palin and Giuliani, while Michele Bachmann falls to fifth place — well within the margin of error:

Mitt Romney is the leader for the GOP nomination among the current field of official candidates, supported by 27% of Republicans, compared with 18% for Michele Bachmann. However, Rick Perry would essentially tie Romney, with Sarah Palin and Rudy Giuliani close behind, in a scenario in which all three of these undecided candidates entered the race.

Gallup asked respondents to choose among all 11 current and potential candidates, and then asked for their second and third choices. The second and third choices are used to simulate preferences when certain combinations of unannounced candidates are excluded from the race. Three such scenarios include the eight announced candidates plus one of the unannounced candidates. Palin, Perry, and Giuliani finish in no worse than a statistical tie for second place when each is pitted against the eight firm candidates.

If only Perry gets in the race, he starts off five points behind Romney — and five points ahead of Bachmann, who loses four points in the transaction.  Palin comes in at 15 if alone, one point behind Bachmann in a statistical tie for second place, while Giuliani gets 14%, three behind Bachmann for third place, without Palin or Perry.  Romney holds 23% in each model.

The numbers between conservatives and moderates/liberals are also interesting.  Gallup didn’t run separate models for that breakdown as they did with the overall numbers, but if all three jump into the race, Perry ties Romney for the lead with conservatives at 18%.  His support drops off considerably with moderates/liberals, finishing tied for fifth place with Bachmann.  Giuliani wins that demographic at 16%, two points ahead of Romney and Palin.  Somewhat surprisingly, Palin only scores 11% among conservatives, a fourth-place finish behind Romney, Perry, and Bachmann.

Needless to say, the other candidates in the field barely change positions with or without the three late entrants.  All of them had better hope for lightning to strike in Ames in a couple of weeks, at the debate and then at the straw poll.  Without some sort of breakout performance, an entry of any of the three maybes will swamp out any hope of getting the kind of media attention that will build momentum in the fall.

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Battle of the Haircuts.

Bishop on July 27, 2011 at 12:09 PM

If only Perry gets in the race….

So what the heck is he waiting for, some guy to wave a checkered flag, someone to go “Mother, may I?”, or what?!!!

pilamaye on July 27, 2011 at 12:09 PM

The Prophet will no live up to the hype.

Falz on July 27, 2011 at 12:10 PM

Remember some time back I said a dark horse would likely come to the front?

Meet Rick Perry, dark horse.

amerpundit on July 27, 2011 at 12:10 PM

Texas Hair/Stache 2012!

fossten on July 27, 2011 at 12:10 PM

I’m wondering how Romney still gets 27%.

trigon on July 27, 2011 at 12:10 PM

So what the heck is he waiting for, some guy to wave a checkered flag, someone to go “Mother, may I?”, or what?!!!

pilamaye on July 27, 2011 at 12:09 PM

Lots of phrases come to mind.

Don’t go off half-cocked.

Good things come to those who wait.

Only fools rush in…

fossten on July 27, 2011 at 12:12 PM

As a Texan, I’m not a huge Perry fan. However, at the moment he looks like the best of the bunch. He’s a consummate pol and I’m not sure he can be trusted to remain conservative in national office, but he’s been pretty consistent here (if you can overlook those toll road and teenage girl immunization things.) I do wish he’d leave religion out of his campaign, he must be fishing for big TX donors.

obladioblada on July 27, 2011 at 12:12 PM

Romney has been running for President in ’12 since the primaries of 2008, and he can’t pull away from the others?

Romney is weak covered in weak sauce.

portlandon on July 27, 2011 at 12:13 PM

yawn… yet another self absorbed insider…

gatorboy on July 27, 2011 at 12:15 PM

He’s a consummate pol and I’m not sure he can be trusted to remain conservative in national office

obladioblada on July 27, 2011 at 12:12 PM

That’s my biggest worry. Too many people succumb to the DC “compromise” mentality.

darwin on July 27, 2011 at 12:15 PM

I like Palin. I like Perry. And I happen to think he’d win in a landslide. Now where is last night’s “Palin gang” to call me “sweetums” and stupid and to restart the “Perry is a faggot” meme, ooh, I mean “satire”?

Marcus on July 27, 2011 at 12:17 PM

Perry pulls into statistical tie with Romney in Gallup poll

Perry is tied before he even declares he’s running. Remember Mitt already declared. Many may not know this, because Sarah Palin attended a clam bake the same day ;)

Dr Evil on July 27, 2011 at 12:18 PM

If only Perry gets in the race….

So what the heck is he waiting for, some guy to wave a checkered flag, someone to go “Mother, may I?”, or what?!!!

pilamaye on July 27, 2011 at 12:09 PM

Oh, he’s running. There hasn’t been any doubt about that for some time.

This is the part of the primaries devoted to sniping and damaging opponents and there are a number of candidates who are busy doing the DNC’s job with their attacks (see Pawlenty and Bachmann). Why not let the others bloody each other for a bit before declaring? He’s already a frontrunner.

obladioblada on July 27, 2011 at 12:19 PM

Marcus on July 27, 2011 at 12:17 PM

“sweetums”???

Gohawgs on July 27, 2011 at 12:20 PM

As a Texan, I actually am a pretty big Perry fan. As a texan who actually travels Texas–a lot–I can say that in the past twenty years I-35 between San Antonio and DFW has become pretty much a used-up, bordering-on-third-world, stretch of highway. And for that reason, I actually was inclined to look not all that unfavorably on the whole Trans-Texas Corridor thing.

The whole teenage girl thing was out of bounds. But as long as Perry understands the bright line of the Tenth Amendment, at least he shouldn’t engage in any such foolishness in Washington.

What I’m not sure of is how he’ll play on the national stage. He’s pretty much unknown outside of Texas, and he’s going to be pretty easy for the Left/media to parody and portray as Bush. But if he can beat that, campaign well, and come off as more of Reagan and less of W, well, he…could…go…all…the…way…

I’m warming up to Perry/Rudy by the day.

Typhoon on July 27, 2011 at 12:20 PM

Now where is last night’s “Palin gang” to call me “sweetums” and stupid and to restart the “Perry is a faggot” meme, ooh, I mean “satire”?

Marcus on July 27, 2011 at 12:17 PM

..sleeeping it off?

The War Planner on July 27, 2011 at 12:21 PM

I like Palin. I like Perry. And I happen to think he’d win in a landslide. Now where is last night’s “Palin gang” to call me “sweetums” and stupid and to restart the “Perry is a faggot” meme, ooh, I mean “satire”?

Marcus on July 27, 2011 at 12:17 PM

You’re ridiculous.

steebo77 on July 27, 2011 at 12:22 PM

The War Planner on July 27, 2011 at 12:21 PM

From what I saw, one comment does not make a mountain…

Gohawgs on July 27, 2011 at 12:23 PM

yawn… yet another self absorbed insider…

gatorboy on July 27, 2011 at 12:15 PM

Your comment confirms that Perry should be and will be our candidate and will kick the sh!t out of pospotus in 2012.

VegasRick on July 27, 2011 at 12:24 PM

So what the heck is he waiting for, some guy to wave a checkered flag, someone to go “Mother, may I?”, or what?!!!

pilamaye on July 27, 2011 at 12:09 PM

Who announces first, Palin or Perry? I don’t think Rudy will run if either of these two do.

sleepy-beans on July 27, 2011 at 12:26 PM

obladioblada on July 27, 2011 at 12:19 PM

Would be interested in your comments w/r to Perry’s ability to run a good campaign, i.e. efficient, social media friendly etc. I read an article recently that he’s got a good team. Unfortunately, I can’t find that article at the moment.

Any Texans care to comment?

Cody1991 on July 27, 2011 at 12:26 PM

Rush was just saying that if Boehner decided to freeze spending at last years numbers today…

… the CBO would have to score it as a $9 Trillion cut due to baseline budgeting.

I wonder if Perry is up to the task of really changing how our government functions…

… or is it really too late?

Seven Percent Solution on July 27, 2011 at 12:26 PM

yawn… yet another self absorbed insider…
gatorboy on July 27, 2011 at 12:15 PM

So tired of all the bots who trash every single GOP candidate not named “Palin”. Grow up.

KeepOhioRed on July 27, 2011 at 12:30 PM

Seriously, who actually supports Rudy?

KeepOhioRed on July 27, 2011 at 12:31 PM

As a Texan, I actually am a pretty big Perry fan. As a texan who actually travels Texas–a lot–I can say that in the past twenty years I-35 between San Antonio and DFW has become pretty much a used-up, bordering-on-third-world, stretch of highway.

…I’m warming up to Perry/Rudy by the day.

Typhoon on July 27, 2011 at 12:20 PM

As a fellow traveler in Texas, I can sympathize with your thoughts on I-35. And, will add to that; 820, I-635, I-30 along with several lesser roads that cannot handle the added traffic (Beltline, the entire northern half). The new toll roads are nice, but I will take a longer route because I hate the tolls, just been that way since I-30 was a toll road.

I just found out the vaccine for HPV is actually three shots given over 6 months time…as an evil parent of a soon to be teenage daughter, she got the first shot yesterday. And like that my wife and I had to make the decision. Though when Perry promoted it, it had an easy opt-out.

Yeah, I’m overcoming my negatives over Perry. There isn’t a better alternative out there. As much as I like Palin and she might be able to beat Obama, there needs to be an opponent that will beat Obama.

Perry/Giuliani…I’m likin’ that.

cozmo on July 27, 2011 at 12:38 PM

Would be interested in your comments w/r to Perry’s ability to run a good campaign, i.e. efficient, social media friendly etc. I read an article recently that he’s got a good team. Unfortunately, I can’t find that article at the moment.

Any Texans care to comment?

Cody1991 on July 27, 2011 at 12:26 PM

I don’t know. In his last primary, Kay Bailey Hutchison was an easy RINO tag, and I’m not sure that many people were even aware of his Democratic opponent’s campaign (Bill White.) The only thing I remember about the campaign before that one is that Kinky Friedman livened it up, I have zero recollection of the Dem challenger. I have the impression that his campaigns have been pretty easy, but I don’t know if that’s a fair assessment or not.

obladioblada on July 27, 2011 at 12:40 PM

Any Texans care to comment?

Cody1991 on July 27, 2011 at 12:26 PM

Texas has been pretty solidly Republican for the entire time he’s been governor, so he hasn’t really had to wage hard-fought campaigns against Democrats. In 2006 the buzz in the governor’s race was actually all about Kinky Friedman. And while I was in Tennessee at a client’s Phil Bredesen was actually shooting a commercial there and asked me if I thought Perry was going to “pull it out against Kinky.”

In 2010 the battle was in the Republican primary between Perry and Kay Bailey Hutchinson. Perry polished up the floor with her, but it was a campaign based almost entirely on Texas Brand® anti-Washington rhetoric. The kind of stuff that’s not likely to go over well with the mushy middle in the likes of Pennsylvania and Ohio.

So it’s yet to be seen.

Typhoon on July 27, 2011 at 12:41 PM

Seriously, who actually supports Rudy?
KeepOhioRed on July 27, 2011 at 12:31 PM

Rudy v Obama? Well, I do.

Marcus on July 27, 2011 at 12:41 PM

If Romney can get over the associations with Dukakis/Kennedy/Kerry/Joseph Smith, then Perry can get past Bush. The low unemployment there will be a strong selling point.

pedestrian on July 27, 2011 at 12:41 PM

I’m predicting Perry/Romnney. Romney might not like that, but like he says, he doesn’t have a job now.

pedestrian on July 27, 2011 at 12:44 PM

Any Texans care to comment?

Cody1991 on July 27, 2011 at 12:26 PM

Perry has never lost. Either as a democrat, or republican. He even went up against a more famous opponent, and won, becoming the first republican lieutenant governor since reconstruction (that was as big as Bush beating Richards and the beginning of the Perry/Bush rift). He is a very good campaigner…and so is his wife.

cozmo on July 27, 2011 at 12:46 PM

The low unemployment there will be a strong selling point.

The unemployment rate in Texas is about 8%…nothing to get too excited about, but his strength will be job creation. Texas has contributed something like 35-40% of all new jobs in the past 4 years.

joepub on July 27, 2011 at 12:47 PM

Does this really indicate how strong a candidate Perry is — or how weak a candidate Romney is? Or T-Paw, Bachmann, et al.

Spent essentially no time or money, yet leaps to the front.

Hmmmmm…

OnlyOrange on July 27, 2011 at 12:49 PM

Regardless of who we individually “like”, Palin is the only one who would do the job this counry needs.

Amjean on July 27, 2011 at 12:50 PM

’m predicting Perry/Romnney. Romney might not like that, but like he says, he doesn’t have a job now.

pedestrian on July 27, 2011 at 12:44 PM

Mittens is too much of a milquetoast to be a VP candidate. The spot calls for an attack dog. Plus he doesn’t have any really strong supporters to bring to the table. I’d probably pay some good money to see Rudy or Christie debate Slow Joe, and with either Rudy or Christie on the ticket, Barry’d probably at least have to spend some cash in the New York media market he’s not planning on spending now.

Typhoon on July 27, 2011 at 12:50 PM

obladioblada on July 27, 2011 at 12:40 PM

Typhoon on July 27, 2011 at 12:41 PM

OMG…. Kinky Friedman. Hadn’t thought about him in ages. That was interesting.

One of my concerns with any Republican candidate is that they know how to run an efficient, smart campaign – not the usual lumbering, dull, apologetic nonsense a la McCain.

Cody1991 on July 27, 2011 at 12:52 PM

yawn… yet another self absorbed insider…

gatorboy on July 27, 2011 at 12:15 PM

Right. That’s why the establishment Republicans all endorsed Kay Bailey for Governor last year, while Perry was appearing at a rally with Gov. Palin.

Doughboy on July 27, 2011 at 12:52 PM

One of my concerns with any Republican candidate is that they know how to run an efficient, smart campaign – not the usual lumbering, dull, apologetic nonsense a la McCain.

Cody1991 on July 27, 2011 at 12:52 PM

I can assure you that won’t be happening.

The thing is that he’s a Texan, through and through. Sometimes that just doesn’t translate well to the national stage.

But if it does in his case, I think he might be the best bet to beat Barry. We’ll see.

Typhoon on July 27, 2011 at 12:56 PM

H/T to Catlady:
http://www.texasmonthly.com/2011-08-01/btl.php

mizflame98 on July 27, 2011 at 12:50 PM

Thanks! I’m forwarding that along.

Cody1991 on July 27, 2011 at 12:58 PM

Right. That’s why the establishment Republicans all endorsed Kay Bailey for Governor last year, while Perry was appearing at a rally with Gov. Palin.

Doughboy on July 27, 2011 at 12:52 PM

Doesn’t matter, DB. According to Palinbots, every candidate not named Sarah is a filthy RINO. I like Palin, but the Sarah worship is as bad as the Ojesus worship on the left.

KeepOhioRed on July 27, 2011 at 12:58 PM

Meet Rick Perry, dark horse.

amerpundit on July 27, 2011 at 12:10 PM

more like new flavor of the month. We saw the same thing with bachmann, Cain, Trump, Daniels etc.

unseen on July 27, 2011 at 1:02 PM

The thing is that he’s a Texan, through and through. Sometimes that just doesn’t translate well to the national stage.

But if it does in his case, I think he might be the best bet to beat Barry. We’ll see.

Typhoon on July 27, 2011 at 12:56 PM

Well, my perspective is Southern. I have no problem with Texas and would move there in a heartbeat. Perry should do well in the South, and while I understand how he might grate on the nerves of the oh-so-sophisticated Coastal types he should do well in the Midwest – well enough to carry a couple of swing states. He can win, imho, and I do wish he’d make the announcement.

Cody1991 on July 27, 2011 at 1:03 PM

Doesn’t matter, DB. According to Palinbots, every candidate not named Sarah is a filthy RINO. I like Palin, but the Sarah worship is as bad as the Ojesus worship on the left.

KeepOhioRed on July 27, 2011 at 12:58 PM

Painting with a wide brush there KOR.

And your hyperbole comparing Palin & her supporters is sickening.

portlandon on July 27, 2011 at 1:03 PM

KeepOhioRed on July 27, 2011 at 12:58 PM

No supporter of Palin has gone on a 17 hour lying liars lying binge or on a 36 hour obsession with 3 phrases binge…

Gohawgs on July 27, 2011 at 1:05 PM

portlandon on July 27, 2011 at 1:03 PM

par for the course from the ST. rick congregation

unseen on July 27, 2011 at 1:07 PM

Regardless of who we individually “like”, Palin is the only one who would do the job this counry needs.

Amjean on July 27, 2011 at 12:50 PM

i think a campaign will make that clear.

unseen on July 27, 2011 at 1:09 PM

the fact that 85% people think congressman are more about their careers then helping the people. and 46% think congress is crooks and only 6% rate Congress as good or excellent. is tailored made for a reformer to get in the race.

Perry i don’t think can fit into that vacuum.

unseen on July 27, 2011 at 1:11 PM

Painting with a wide brush there KOR.
And your hyperbole comparing Palin & her supporters is sickening.

portlandon on July 27, 2011 at 1:03 PM

I didn’t refer to all Palin supporters, PL. Just the ones trashing every other candidate.

We’ve seen comments on HA trashing Michelle Bachmann for the nomination because “Sarah deserves it more”. And here is gatorboy trashing a conservative candidate in Perry who would almost certainly destroy Obama.

These are the “bots” I’m referring to.

KeepOhioRed on July 27, 2011 at 1:12 PM

this pol does tend to confirm my point that Perry hurts Mitt and Bachmann the most. it appears that Palin’s support is steady regardless of who gets in the race.

iMO if both Perry and Palin enter the race the race settles into a three person race pretty quick with Mitt coming in third and Perry and Palin battling for the nomination which is all for the good because both Palin and Perry are more to the right than Mitt. And both stand a good chance of beating Obama whereas mitt and Bachmann don’t stand a chance in hell of winning.

unseen on July 27, 2011 at 1:14 PM

more like new flavor of the month. We saw the same thing with bachmann, Cain, Trump, Daniels etc.

unseen on July 27, 2011 at 1:02 PM

Have to say you have a point.

SheetAnchor on July 27, 2011 at 1:17 PM

portray as Bush…..

Typhoon on July 27, 2011 at 12:20 PM

By the time the General Election rolls around, this will be a feature and not a bug.

Mutnodjmet on July 27, 2011 at 1:20 PM

…Perry and Palin battling for the nomination which is all for the good because both Palin and Perry are more to the right than Mitt.
unseen on July 27, 2011 at 1:14 PM

Exactly as I see it, too.

Mutnodjmet on July 27, 2011 at 1:21 PM

All we want is for a winner to put his/her hat in the ring, get behind the candidate and ride them to victory over Obama.
Right now, I don’t care who it is, just as long as it’s not Obama.
A bigger fool has never governed in the U.S. Carter must be so happy..

right2bright on July 27, 2011 at 1:22 PM

And both stand a good chance of beating Obama whereas mitt and Bachmann don’t stand a chance in hell of winning.

unseen on July 27, 2011 at 1:14 PM

You can’t be serious. You think Palin has a good chance against Zero, but Mitt has no chance in hell?

You’re delirious, dude.

KeepOhioRed on July 27, 2011 at 1:23 PM

By the time the General Election rolls around, this will be a feature and not a bug.

Mutnodjmet on July 27, 2011 at 1:20 PM

I’m not sure the Maerican people have now rejected Bushism 4 times. in 1992, 1996 and 2006 and 2008. The last two times in record numbers.

I really think the only way to win in 2012 and have a mandate to fix the problems is by running a Reaganite.

if Perry is painted as a Bush clone the race becomes too close to call IMO. i think Perry is smart enough to afford that. The fact that the Bushies endorsed his opponent over him will play a good talking point for Perry to prevent the bush clone attack line.

unseen on July 27, 2011 at 1:25 PM

KeepOhioRed on July 27, 2011 at 1:23 PM

mitt will lose the south Perry and Palin won’t.

unseen on July 27, 2011 at 1:28 PM

unseen on July 27, 2011 at 1:14 PM

1. If Perry gets in and Palin does not, it is a 2 person race between Mitt and Perry.

2. If Perry gets in and Palin does too, it is a 2 person race between Mitt and Perry.

3. If Perry does not get in and Palin does, Mitt wins.

4. If Perry does not get in and Palin does not, Mitt wins.

MJBrutus on July 27, 2011 at 1:51 PM

Perry ain’t Bush. Bush was a transplant from Conn. and was sissified at Ivy League Yale. Perry was born and raised on a West Texas farm and graduated from Texas A&M and was a pilot in the Air Force. Obama can complain about the economy he inherited from Bush, well so can Perry. Who did the best job? What little economic accomplishment Obama has gotten, he should thank Perry and Texas for it.

cartooner on July 27, 2011 at 1:54 PM

MJBrutus on July 27, 2011 at 1:51 PM

1) is correct

2) isn’t

3) isn’t

4) is correct.

Hey you got 2 out of 4 right

unseen on July 27, 2011 at 2:18 PM

I’ll vote for Perry. He’ll use that same machette he used on Bailey-Hutchison to take out Willard.

I’m still a Palin fan and would love, love to vote for her (what’s wrong with her PDSers? Her “accent?” Or the tired “quitter” jab?)

Just like Perry, she’s a nutcutter. And the prize nutcuttee is in the White House.

k9lover on July 27, 2011 at 2:19 PM

mitt will lose the south Perry and Palin won’t.
unseen on July 27, 2011 at 1:28 PM

I’m not convinced Mitt will lose the south. It will be ABO in the south.

Palin will lose every battleground state, including mine. No Republican can win without winning Ohio.

KeepOhioRed on July 27, 2011 at 2:29 PM

I’m not convinced Mitt will lose the south

Haley Barbour has said he will endorse Perry. So will Bobby Jindal and Florida’s (R) governor and I’d bet South Carolina’s Nikki Haley. I’m convinced Mitt will lose the South.

Marcus on July 27, 2011 at 2:33 PM

Would be interested in your comments w/r to Perry’s ability to run a good campaign, i.e. efficient, social media friendly etc. I read an article recently that he’s got a good team. Unfortunately, I can’t find that article at the moment.

Any Texans care to comment?

Cody1991 on July 27, 2011 at 12:26 PM

Perry & his team ran a very efficient and effective campaign in 2010. Here is an article about it.

wonder if Perry is up to the task of really changing how our government functions…

… or is it really too late?

Seven Percent Solution on July 27, 2011 at 12:26 PM

If he goes all the way, then I believe he will recognize it as a true mandate from the American people to change things in a serious way – not in the hopey-changey kind of way. Hopefully, more like a bye-bye EPA kind of way!

redwhiteblue on July 27, 2011 at 2:35 PM

And before unseen asks, I think all the Southern Republican governors endorse Perry, because I do not see Palin running. And (sweetum’s opinion only here!!) I think if both were in the race they’d all endorse Perry anyway.

Marcus on July 27, 2011 at 2:35 PM

mizflame98 on July 27, 2011 at 12:50 PM

Thanks. Good for that Texan. The state is not to be ridiculed based on legends. I know Perry in person. He is way more likeable and personable than on TV. He is certain, friendly, not too close, competent and most gentlemanly and strong. His dour and dusty background are not to be ignored. His wife is a great lady too.

He will have Palin’s backing if/when he declares. She will have his, if she does. They are good friends.

Schadenfreude on July 27, 2011 at 2:40 PM

The one who will beat Obama is not in the race yet.

Schadenfreude on July 27, 2011 at 2:41 PM

Haley Barbour has said he will endorse Perry. So will Bobby Jindal and Florida’s (R) governor and I’d bet South Carolina’s Nikki Haley. I’m convinced Mitt will lose the South.

Marcus on July 27, 2011 at 2:33 PM

So southern governors endorse the better, more conservative candidate. That doesn’t mean other candidates will lose it. If McCain only lost NC in the blue wave of 2008, no way Mitt loses more than that in a friendlier 2012.

Mitt is my LAST choice in the primary, by the way.

KeepOhioRed on July 27, 2011 at 2:42 PM

if Perry is painted as a Bush clone the race becomes too close to call IMO. i think Perry is smart enough to afford that. The fact that the Bushies endorsed his opponent over him will play a good talking point for Perry to prevent the bush clone attack line.

unseen on July 27, 2011 at 1:25 PM

I assume that’s why the stories of a Perry-Bush feud have been planted in the political pages.

obladioblada on July 27, 2011 at 2:43 PM

Conservatives/Rs know in their gut that the current field can not beat Obama.

Schadenfreude on July 27, 2011 at 2:43 PM

1. Perry is not George Bush. Don’t assume that because Bush and Perry served together in the Capitol, or because they’re both Republican Texans who wear boots, the two men have a lot in common. They don’t. As governor, Bush positioned himself as “a uniter, not a divider,” championing education as one of his main priorities. Perry has been the opposite kind of chief executive: dismissive of Democrats and fond of political maneuvers that put the heat on moderates within his own party. And in the legislative session that just wrapped up, he presided over a budget that cut $4 billion from public schools. The cultural differences are striking too. Perry, the son of a Big Country cotton farmer, is at ease with a populist tea party message; W., the scion of a political dynasty, always seemed more comfortable with the country club set. They have followed starkly different paths. When W. began his political career, he had a famous name, access to his father’s huge national fund-raising base, and the backing of the establishment wing of the Republican party. As a late arrival in the Republican ranks, Perry had no fund-raising base and little name identification. He had no choice but to gravitate to the conservative wing of the GOP, where he could prove up his conservative bona fides. Nor is there any love lost between the two men. When Perry ran for lieutenant governor, in 1998, Bush’s camp wanted everyone on the ticket to run positive races; the Perry team defied the order, and ever since, relations have been frosty. There is one other critical difference. Bush lost his first race, for Congress. Perry has won every race he’s ever run.

Schadenfreude on July 27, 2011 at 2:45 PM

I assume that’s why the stories of a Perry-Bush feud have been planted in the political pages.

obladioblada on July 27, 2011 at 2:43 PM

Leftie and rightie memes:

1. Perry is GWB
2. Perry is gay
3. Perry supported Gore
4. Perry was a conservative democrat
5. Perry is a hair guy, like John Edwards
6. Perry is from Texas
7. Texas is not as big as…
8. Texas didn’t create as many jobs as…
9. Add your own and keep going

The left will love ya for it.

Schadenfreude on July 27, 2011 at 2:48 PM

Schadenfreude on July 27, 2011 at 2:45 PM

Thanks for that. Good analysis.

Let’s face it, we’re all looking for Ronald Reagan. We may not have one, but I see Perry’s positions as being closest to his. And Barry is doing a great job of ticking him off with all of the hurt that his regime is putting on TX. I do trust Perry to get the regulators off of our backs and repeal Obamacare. (Certainly can’t say the same for Romney.)

obladioblada on July 27, 2011 at 2:53 PM

He will have Palin’s backing if/when he declares. She will have his, if she does. They are good friends.

Schadenfreude on July 27, 2011 at 2:40 PM

That’s the way I see it – they’re friends. But are you saying they’ll both get in? Or one has to beat the other to it?

Missy on July 27, 2011 at 2:55 PM

Pawlenty’s staffers are going through Perry’s garbage cans now looking for empty Exedrin Migraine bottles.
/s

Y-not on July 27, 2011 at 2:56 PM

That’s the way I see it – they’re friends. But are you saying they’ll both get in? Or one has to beat the other to it?

Missy on July 27, 2011 at 2:55 PM

My take is that they’ll confer and only one will get in.

Schadenfreude on July 27, 2011 at 3:00 PM

Thanks for that. Good analysis.

obladioblada on July 27, 2011 at 2:53 PM

The excellent link was supplied by mizflame98, further up.

It s/b kept handy and used against the left and other faux reporters.

Schadenfreude on July 27, 2011 at 3:02 PM

My take is that they’ll confer and only one will get in.

Schadenfreude on July 27, 2011 at 3:00 PM

Thanks. That’s kind of what I’ve been thinking, too.

Missy on July 27, 2011 at 3:02 PM

Perry at least looks presidential.
-
As opposed to most of the rest.
-
2012 Perry / ????

esblowfeld on July 27, 2011 at 3:05 PM

Folks don’t know Perry much as he’s just been in the headlines a couple few weeks, but this tie(?) really shows how badly Romney -the plastic flip flop, “all things to all people”, man is thought of by the man on the street. The days of manufactured-image candidates are over, I suspect.

If you want to be president – don’t have good hair! Perry may end up near the bottom after the glow wears off.
Sarah, on the other hand…, heh, heh.

Don L on July 27, 2011 at 3:08 PM

Perry has the credentials to compare to anybody’s. The “skeletons” in his closet are the little Halloween cut-out kind that anyone who’s held executive office over 10 years accumulates.

cartooner on July 27, 2011 at 3:34 PM

Don L on July 27, 2011 at 3:08 PM

So your gal will win because she has bad hair?

MJBrutus on July 27, 2011 at 3:43 PM

Perry ain’t Bush. Bush was a transplant from Conn. and was sissified at Ivy League Yale. Perry was born and raised on a West Texas farm and graduated from Texas A&M and was a pilot in the Air Force. Obama can complain about the economy he inherited from Bush, well so can Perry. Who did the best job? What little economic accomplishment Obama has gotten, he should thank Perry and Texas for it.

cartooner on July 27, 2011 at 1:54 PM

You forgot he was a campain bigwig for AL GORE

KBird on July 27, 2011 at 3:52 PM

You forgot he was a campain bigwig for AL GORE

KBird on July 27, 2011 at 3:52 PM

Your name is meme #3. See further above…

Schadenfreude on July 27, 2011 at 3:55 PM

Regardless of who we individually “like”, Palin is the only one who would do the job this counry needs.

Amjean

Unfortunately, she can’t win, making that point moot.

xblade on July 27, 2011 at 3:57 PM

Tea Party chimes in.

Schadenfreude on July 27, 2011 at 4:10 PM

Perry ain’t Bush. Bush was a transplant from Conn. and was sissified at Ivy League Yale. Perry was born and raised on a West Texas farm and graduated from Texas A&M and was a pilot in the Air Force.

That’s not fair to GWB. He was all of two years old when his family moved to Midland. He spent his childhood there and in Houston, married a Texan, and has chosen Texas as his home except during college, grad school and the Presidency. He was also a pilot in the TANG and the Air Force Reserve.

Not saying GWB is *more* Texan than Perry, but it’s simply inaccurate to paint Bush as some kind of carpetbagger.

Missy on July 27, 2011 at 4:11 PM

Perry may not be the second coming of Bush, but he will be painted with the “Bush/Texan” brush, and that will set up the Obama vs. Bush media onslaught…

Also, it is interesting to note that there has not been a Republican President elected to office since 1952 who was not from Texas (Bush 41 and Bush 43) or California (Regan and Nixon). (Ford was never elected).

So, Perry would break the tie with California…

RedSoxNation on July 27, 2011 at 4:17 PM

which is nice…

RedSoxNation on July 27, 2011 at 4:18 PM

You forgot he was a campain bigwig for AL GORE

KBird on July 27, 2011 at 3:52 PM

You clearly know very little about Texas politics. Back then, most of our Democrats were more conservative than Northeastern Republicans. Senator Phil Gramm was a Dem representative, John Connoly was a Dem governor…

cartooner on July 27, 2011 at 4:21 PM

Not saying GWB is *more* Texan than Perry, but it’s simply inaccurate to paint Bush as some kind of carpetbagger.

Missy on July 27, 2011 at 4:11 PM

Yes, I’m being a little unfair to Bush, but my point is that G.W. was raised as a Yankee in Texas (He went to one of the most elite private schools in Houston). He was truly raised with a silver spoon in his mouth.
Rick Perry grew up from a poorer farm family and is a self made man who grew up with strong Texas traditions.

cartooner on July 27, 2011 at 4:30 PM

You forgot he was a campain bigwig for AL GORE

KBird on July 27, 2011 at 3:52 PM

Being a former Dem might actually be helpful. Rick Perry has direct insight and understanding of the Democrat’s game plan. That helps him on defense.
I think the fact that he tried their ways and then realized that the Republican Party was clearly better will speak to plenty of independents throughout America.
As Schadenfreude said at 2:40 -

He is certain, friendly, not too close, competent and most gentlemanly and strong. His dour and dusty background are not to be ignored. His wife is a great lady too.

I agree. Perry is a steadfast leader, but not a stubborn man. In the 11 years of Governor Perry leading Texas, I have never been worried or afraid. In the 2 1/2 years of Barack Obama leading America (down the toilet), I am constantly worried and afraid. I know I’m not alone in wanting the best candidate we can have to push the liberals as far away from power as possible. I will vote for and support whomever the GOP winner is, but I will feel very good if it is Rick Perry.

redwhiteblue on July 27, 2011 at 6:17 PM

So what the heck is he waiting for, some guy to wave a checkered flag, someone to go “Mother, may I?”, or what?!!!

pilamaye on July 27, 2011 at 12:09 PM

No reason to get in before the Ames Straw poll. Even if he was on the ballot, he wouldn’t win it because he has no organization there yet and starting the campaign off with a perceived loss is not smart.

This way he can enter the race after the straw poll and soak up all the media attention away from whoever wins the poll.

Daemonocracy on July 27, 2011 at 6:23 PM

…Perry and Palin battling for the nomination which is all for the good because both Palin and Perry are more to the right than Mitt.
unseen on July 27, 2011 at 1:14 PM

Exactly as I see it, too.

Mutnodjmet on July 27, 2011 at 1:21 PM

If Perry jumps in, Palin will not. She will campaign for him and tell her followers to vote for him.

Rudy and Perry are also friends. I think Perry/Giuliani would be a killer ticket. They’d likely get New York and some of the other liberal states too.

As for religion, Perry is catching heat from social cons for saying that “gay marriage is fine for NY, it’s their state.” Socons didn’t like him saying “fine.” What this tells me is that he is thinking about adding Rudy and wants to look electable to NYCers.

(I have no inside scoop at all, just speculating….)

YehuditTX on July 27, 2011 at 6:43 PM

• January 2010: Perry told a questioner at a January 2010 debate that he “absolutely” would serve his full new 4-year term.
Source: http://www.wfaa.com/news/politics/debate/The-Belo-Debate-Part-II-83068707.html

• March 2010: Perry told Politico that he had “no interest” in being the next president “in any form or fashion.”
Source: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0310/33821.html

• April 2010: Perry had the following exchange with Evan Smith of Newsweek.

ES: Everybody wants to know about your plans for 2012. Are you considering running and would you consider it?
RP: No and no.
ES: You are not considering running for president. You will not run for president.
RP: That’s correct.
ES: Under any circumstances?
RP: That’s correct.
ES: Vice president? Would you be willing to consider that?
RP: No. I don’t care about going to Washington, D.C.

Source: http://www.newsweek.com/2010/04/15/the-perry-doctrine.html

• December 2010: Perry told Reuters “I don’t want to be president of the United States. I’m not going to run for the presidency of the United States.” He also insisted the he already had “the best job in America.”
Source: http://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFN1517695420101215

• May 2011: Perry’s spokesman Mark Miner told National Journal “Nothing has changed. The governor has no intention of running for president.”
Source: http://nationaljournal.com/politics/perry-spokesman-the-governor-has-no-intention-of-running-for-president–20110527

steebo77 on July 28, 2011 at 10:42 AM