ABC News cheerleading for Obama more than Daily Kos pollster

posted at 6:00 pm on July 23, 2011 by Karl

ABC News Political Director Amy Walter and ABC pollster Gary Langer, shaking the pom-poms:

President Obama is holding onto a 7 point lead over his chief Republican rival, Mitt Romney, in the latest ABC News-Washington Post poll.

If the 2012 election were held today, 51 percent of adults said they would pick Obama compared to 44 percent who would support the former Massachusetts governor. (They were tied in early June.) Important to note, however, is that among registered voters, Obama’s lead over Romney narrows to 49 percent to 47 percent. No other Republican challenger fares as well as Romney in head-to-head matchups against the president. http://abcn.ws/nUXx7F

But there’s a bigger take away from the new numbers than just the 2012 horserace.

“Obama looks to have turned the budget debate to his advantage,” writes ABC pollster Gary Langer. “His position on the deficit is more broadly popular, he’s taking less heat than the GOP for unwillingness to compromise and he’s got a sizable lead in the view that he cares more about protecting the middle class.”

So what? Obama’s stance in the debt ceiling talks is all about his re-election campaign. The other metrics don’t matter unless they help Obama’s bottom line. And the bottom line is that the current GOP front-runner is within the margin of error in the head-to-head matchup with registered voters.

Of course, the head-to-head numbers themselves are not particularly predictive this far from an election. Rather, the spin being put out by Langer — and most of the rest of the establishment media — is all about framing a narrative for the race to come. Establishment media polling does not always have this agenda, but it is fairly blatant in this instance.

For example, Langer relies on his poll to claim Obama’s position on the deficit is broadly popular, when the White House boasts that Obama doesn’t have a plan. Meanwhile, CNN buries the overwhelming popularity of the GOP “Cut, Cap & Balance” plan in its own coverage. The WSJ/NBC poll (.pdf) asks whether the GOP should drop its opposition to “any taxes, including on corporations and the wealthy,” if it that is the only way to reach a deal, but fails to ask whether Obama should drop his insistence on roughly $1 trillion in new taxes if that is the only way to get a deal. Nor does the establishment media ask whether Obama should give up his trillion-dollar ObamaCare entitlement to get a debt deal. The answer to either question would likely not advance the establishment narrative of the “adult” president facing down an intransigent House GOP.

You know who isn’t narrative-building? Tom Jensen of PPP, the Democratic firm that polls for the Daily Kos. PPP has Obama and Romney tied at 45%, but that’s not the main reason why Jensen is concerned:

Obama’s numbers are worse than they appear to be on the surface. The vast majority of the undecideds in all of these match ups disapprove of the job Obama’s doing but aren’t committing to a candidate yet while they wait to see how the Republican field shakes out.

Jensen then allocates the undecideds based on their approval/disapproval of Obama, finding Romney would lead 52-48. Moreover, Obama would lead Bachmann only 51-49, tie Pawlenty at 50, lead Cain by only 51-49, and lead Palin 54-46. In short, Obama is already threatened by almost any GOP nominee (unless you can really tarnish his or her image, which will be the Obama/media approach in 2012).

But wait… there’s more. Presidential candidates have to win states to get those Electoral College votes. Reuters has noticed that Obama faces a tough fight in various key states, but the reporting is largely anecdotal. Thus, let’s look at recent state polling:

Florida (29 EV): Romney leads 46-42 [Sunshine State, 7/12]
Iowa (7 EV): Romney leads 47-44 [Mason-Dixon, 7/14]
Michigan (16 EV): Romney leads 46-42 [EPIC-MRA, 7/15]
New Hampshire (4 EV): Romney leads 46-44 [PPP, 7/7], Romney leads 47-43 [WMUR, 7/6]
North Carolina (15 EV): Romney tied 45-45 [PPP, 7/13], Perry leads 45-42 [Civitas, 7/18]
Ohio (18 EV): Obama leads 45-41, but voters split on re-elect 46-47 [Quinnipiac, 7/21]
Pennsylvania (20 EV): Romney tied 44-44 [PPP, 7/8]

If the economy remains about as weak as it is — and it seems like it will — Obama is going to have to scare a lot of undecided voters to get to 270 Electoral College votes in 2012. In that task, it seems that Obama will have an establishment media applauding loud enough to raise Tinkerbell from the dead.

This post was promoted from GreenRoom to HotAir.com.
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In that task, it seems that Obama will have an establishment media applauding loud enough to raise Tinkerbell from the dead.

tinkerbell is dead?

ted c on July 23, 2011 at 6:04 PM

tinkerbell is dead?

ted c on July 23, 2011 at 6:04 PM

Well that’s it.
I am keeping my Peter Pan video locked up.
It will be worth a fortune some day.

Electrongod on July 23, 2011 at 6:07 PM

Media, suffocate from what you consume, what you dwell in, you Obama-azzcrawlers.

YOU are derelict of your duties and deserve that he lets you down, your empty dummy. It is incredibly schadenfreudig to observe your pain.

Schadenfreude on July 23, 2011 at 6:08 PM

Just checked the pdf for Langer’s “poll”.

No polling sample demographics disclosed.

Move On.

Del Dolemonte on July 23, 2011 at 6:16 PM

And that is supposed to be considered NEWS?

OnlyOrange on July 23, 2011 at 6:27 PM

It’s interesting to note that Romney is supposedly leading Obama in Florida. Considering the similarities between Romney and Crist, I can only imagine that a more conservative candidate would do even better than Romney there.

Scott H on July 23, 2011 at 6:27 PM

Crap poll. worthless…

OmahaConservative on July 23, 2011 at 6:27 PM

In that task, it seems that Obama will have an establishment media applauding loud enough to raise Tinkerbell from the dead.

The establishment media can make all the noise they want; their credibility with the public is non-existent.

Perhaps the MSM should start reading the comment sections to their articles of worship to The One.

GarandFan on July 23, 2011 at 6:28 PM

OT:
Who was Amy Winehouse?

OmahaConservative on July 23, 2011 at 6:30 PM

The “alphabet” MSM news have always been propaganda outlets for the progressive agenda.

As the disaster known as the “0bama regime” ripples through the body politic, and their “dream candidate” turns into a nightmare for the average person – they will let their mask slip completely to shill for another four years of him, which will kill this republic.

Which has been the goal all along.

Rebar on July 23, 2011 at 6:33 PM

And if any of these liberal polls had a shred of honesty, or integrity, I think the numbers for Obama are much worse.

All of them are cheerleading. Some are just louder than the others. I hope to God that Americans have wised up to this, and will make up their own minds, rather than let the press do it for them.

capejasmine on July 23, 2011 at 6:34 PM

OT:
Who was Amy Winehouse?

OmahaConservative on July 23, 2011 at 6:30 PM

She was a woman who was famous for being self-destructive.

SlaveDog on July 23, 2011 at 6:35 PM

Scott H on July 23, 2011 at 6:27 PM

Agreed. Let Perry get in there, and let the country get to know the other candidates, and I’m sure we’ll be seeing polls that have already declared Obama the winner. *rolls eyes*

capejasmine on July 23, 2011 at 6:36 PM

Doug Schoen, Dem pollster, has said as much. Barry will go negative in an unprecedented way. Unprecedented is Schoen’s word, not mine. Overall, I think he takes a dim view of barry, but he’s still a Dem. He doesn’t like what’s going to happen.

I would hope that the Chavez type ‘tude that barry had yesterday would turn a lot of people off. As JPod said

Perhaps for the first time in American history, this president is literally using this press conference to create a financial panic over the weekend about the opening of the markets on Monday. He is warning of disaster on Monday. Clearly, he wants to use this as leverage to frighten the GOP into passing the plan proposed by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, which will push the debt ceiling problem into 2013, but it’s still an entirely new and astonishingly reckless gambit.

We are in a war of attrition. Boehner can’t, alone, fight against a raging President, a leftist press, a Dem Senate who has no qualms about passing clearly unpopular laws using parliamentary tricks and expect to win everything he/we want.

The best we can hope for is a compromise which provides a time to prepare for 12…and a time to make the necessary adjustments so that when we get downgraded there won’t be huge dislocations. Increasing our interest rates by 50 basis points isn’t that bad a deal.

r keller on July 23, 2011 at 6:39 PM

OT:
Who was Amy Winehouse?

OmahaConservative on July 23, 2011 at 6:30 PM

A very talented R/B singer from the UK. She was murdered by the tabloids and the people she foolishly trusted.

Tommy_G on July 23, 2011 at 6:40 PM

It’s going to be very amusing next fall when ABC publishes more polls showing how Obama will cruise to victory and how the American people broadly support his regime of 10% unemployment and record inflation.

SlaveDog on July 23, 2011 at 6:43 PM

I know very little about Amy Winehouse other than her drug use, and a remark I heard a long time ago that she had one of the better voices of her generation.

this is the only song/vid I’ve every watched

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=iVaqQe3V498

via

http://faustasblog.com/?p=26929

she had a good voice

RIP

r keller on July 23, 2011 at 6:49 PM

Power in the hands of a few

Our founders assumed a responsible and honest press operating within the place given to it.

The Pom Pom analogy gives our situation a light, harmless character which masks the truly dark and destructive effect our media has had in the last decades.

I described them as fortress Europe defending Hitler but that is too far too passive.

These guys were campaign aids in destroying Hillary and McCain in 2008 and they are going to try to do it again.

How many times do they get away with this?

IlikedAUH2O on July 23, 2011 at 6:50 PM

Obamas’ lap sure is crowded with all the MSM types.

What will Mr. Historic do if the GOP nominated Palin and West?

Buy Bye DOTUS!

PappyD61 on July 23, 2011 at 6:52 PM

tinkerbell is dead?

ted c on July 23, 2011 at 6:04 PM

I thought he was co-hosting Good Morning America.

viking01 on July 23, 2011 at 6:54 PM

r keller on July 23, 2011 at 6:49 PM

I always liked girls like her. A troubled and talented lady. May flights of angels carry her to her rest with my love. And my eternal respect.

IlikedAUH2O on July 23, 2011 at 6:58 PM

It’s started . . . . left wing shills like ABC have begun flooding the public with polls that are pure mathematical garbage. Their hope is that the people will believe their slop and Obama will gain enough support for reelection. ABC is nothing but an Obama shill and a left wing propaganda machine.

rplat on July 23, 2011 at 7:01 PM

Wow..on the same day I find out Tinkerbell & Lady Googoo or Amy Gaga are dead.

BHO Jonestown on July 23, 2011 at 7:04 PM

So, by saving the economy, (R)s will precipitate blame upon themselves for cutting spending, thereby saving Ø’s second term and diminishing their statesmanship and love of country, all because the POS media can’t give up their politically correct progressive president…?
.
There has got to be an effective day-to-day weapon against this tyranny! The ignorance has gone on long enough!

ExpressoBold on July 23, 2011 at 7:09 PM

IlikedAUH2O on July 23, 2011 at 6:50 PM

They didn’t destroy McCain at first. They built him up so he would get the nomination. He was, I believe the only candidate in that field that could possible lose to Obama. Hence their help in getting him the nomination. Once there, they were ever so helpful to him. Even at one point suggesting that he needed a democrat in the VP slot. Great advice, can’t believe he didn’t take it.

Tommy_G on July 23, 2011 at 7:10 PM

The MFM are now going to liquidate the last of their credibility… more than a YEAR before the election.

Name the media that is actually gaining viewers or readers and you will be able to name the one not shooting its credibility to hell and gone. I’m glad ABC and the other MFM are putting their credibility on the table: better to get it removed now than have to wait for them to do a barnstorming session in a year. Once their viewers stop watching and readers stop reading, they don’t come back. Very soon the new media will BE the respected media because it does accept feedback and it does accept pushback… and if you try to push a bubble and do without that, then you won’t get traction. Just like all those Soros-based groups: so much money, no one pays attention.

Its like they are so clueless as to believe their own marketing…

ajacksonian on July 23, 2011 at 7:10 PM

In that task, it seems that Obama will have an establishment media applauding loud enough to raise Tinkerbell from the dead.

WTF?

OD on pixie dust?

Tim_CA on July 23, 2011 at 7:10 PM

OT:
Who was Amy Winehouse?

OmahaConservative on July 23, 2011 at 6:30 PM

A line from her biggest single sort of says it all:

“They tried to make me go to rehab,
I said ‘No, no no.”

TXUS on July 23, 2011 at 7:20 PM

GIMME AN “O”!
GIMME A “B”!
GIMME AN “A”!
GIMME A “M”!
GIMME AN “A”!

WHAT’S THAT SPELL?!!!

DOTUS!!!!!!

pilamaye on July 23, 2011 at 7:30 PM

I hear Gary Langer and Chrissy Matthews have contests to see which one can swallow more of Obowma’s man goo than the other…

Seven Percent Solution on July 23, 2011 at 7:33 PM

OT:
Who was Amy Winehouse?

OmahaConservative on July 23, 2011 at 6:30 PM

Drug addict that refused help.

Key West Reader on July 23, 2011 at 7:40 PM

Seven Percent Solution on July 23, 2011 at 7:33 PM

Gross…

OmahaConservative on July 23, 2011 at 7:42 PM

I just sat through the 31 minute Obama presser from yesterday.

Prediction: Obama 34% by next Wednesday. Michelle: “Buh-Rock! You done blowed up da debt and ruined my Martha’s Vineyard Vacay”.

Hoo boy.

Key West Reader on July 23, 2011 at 7:42 PM

Key West Reader on July 23, 2011 at 7:40 PM

Janis Joplin wannabe, eh darlin’?

OmahaConservative on July 23, 2011 at 7:43 PM

And if you listen to him, he kept touting the CCB and other GOP plans as his own. Infuriating.

But, that’s okay. We only have about 6 more months of active coverage on this miserable failure before we can begin to move on.

Key West Reader on July 23, 2011 at 7:44 PM

Janis Joplin wannabe, eh darlin’?

OmahaConservative on July 23, 2011 at 7:43 PM

You know, I never really got what everyone liked about her. She wasn’t a great singer; she was dirty and sloppy and … I don’t know. I just never thought she was talented.

Key West Reader on July 23, 2011 at 7:45 PM

Battlefield, meet preparation.

Mason on July 23, 2011 at 7:50 PM

NPR Listeners

Just now on Fox — a Dem Senator from North Dakota was quoted as saying that our POTUS was going to be judged well by history for his management of this crisis. One example was his placement of a four trillion cut in the program that was a large and lasting improvement. This was from NPR!!!

An Obamabot I had lunch with disagreed with me that the media turned on Hillary. You see, I had gone into my pity Hillary routine, which is genuine to a degree. She said that the country was just not yet ready for a female POTUS!!! And it was a good thing they had someone else!

OMG. She said that NPR had news shows during the election getting rid of rumors about the media like the one I was mentioning.

What have I been missing?

IlikedAUH2O on July 23, 2011 at 7:57 PM

OmahaConservative on July 23, 2011 at 7:43 PM

Some people have their own battles.

Handles any suicides or deaths, sport?

IlikedAUH2O on July 23, 2011 at 7:59 PM

“Obama looks to have turned the budget debate to his advantage,” writes ABC pollster Gary Langer…”

-
Even if he is risking Armageddon by being so… tricksey…
-

RalphyBoy on July 23, 2011 at 7:59 PM

Good Lord, it’s fact that Carter led Reagan for months and months, AFTER Reagan was the nominee.

Marcus on July 23, 2011 at 7:59 PM

Uggghhh!
Gomer Pyle Huckabee.
Time for the food network…

OmahaConservative on July 23, 2011 at 8:03 PM

Seen a Marine Captain after he put his .45 to his head?

For no reason at all.

I’d give the web page of deats in my life if my hands stop shaking and I stop crying.

Now hack on some dead singer you never met.

IlikedAUH2O on July 23, 2011 at 8:05 PM

IlikedAUH2O on July 23, 2011 at 8:05 PM

Sending you some HotAirian love.

Key West Reader on July 23, 2011 at 8:16 PM

Key West Reader on July 23, 2011 at 8:16 PM

Lolz.
Bless you dear sis…

OmahaConservative on July 23, 2011 at 8:31 PM

Any bounce from the spin the media is giving Obama will last about as long as the OBL bounce.

CW on July 23, 2011 at 8:32 PM

Even the most brainwashed lemmings in the room knows the mainstream media is nothing but a propaganda tool for the leftwing radicals. When you have billionaires like Soros and others buying journalists by the dozens and the Communist Party openly endorsing Obama and the democrats this is more than an election, it is the survival of a nation. Ariel Durant said, “A great civilization cannot be conquered from without until it destroys itself from within.” Barry Soetero is trying to make that happen with billions from international interests wanting to destroy our country. We are in the real Civil War now and to the victor goes the spoils. The spoils being our way of life.

volsense on July 23, 2011 at 8:53 PM

They built him up so he would get the nomination.

Tommy_G on July 23, 2011 at 7:10 PM

At this point in the primary, McCain was dead in the water, with poll numbers in the low single digits. Then, “new found respect” from the MSM.

Funny how that worked out.

Rebar on July 23, 2011 at 8:57 PM

What a surprise, a news organization that nobody watches and a president that nobody watches.
Lame duck, lame duck, lame duck.

MJZZZ on July 23, 2011 at 9:30 PM

So what is the new name for “JurNOlist”?

DSchoen on July 23, 2011 at 10:31 PM

OT:
Who was Amy Winehouse?

OmahaConservative on July 23, 2011 at 6:30 PM

If the obama economy could sing, it would be Amy Winehouse.

Ronnie on July 24, 2011 at 7:39 AM

Key West Reader on July 23, 2011 at 7:40 PM
Janis Joplin wannabe, eh darlin’?

OmahaConservative on July 23, 2011 at 7:43 PM

Sorry, but she couldn’t carry Janis’ sheet music… Janis had talent… Amy, notsomuch…

Khun Joe on July 24, 2011 at 12:48 PM

This is another worthless poll by the agenda driven liberal media.

Its a poll of all adults, which is totally meaningless. Most adults don’t vote. Look at polls by respected, accurate pollsters like Rasmussen that are properly weighted by age, party affiliation and wealth factors and contain likely voters only. The ABC poll is not worth analysing if you are trying to determine the outcome of an election.

RUDYJ on July 24, 2011 at 4:10 PM