CNN poll: Perry in 2nd place?
posted at 3:10 pm on July 22, 2011 by Ed Morrissey
CNN’s latest look at the Republican primary fight shows a big move being made by the man who hasn’t made his big move yet. Mitt Romney remains in first place at 16%, but only within the margin of error, as a group of speculative candidates have crowded right behind him. Texas Governor Rick Perry finishes second with 14%, and that’s not all:
As Texas Gov. Rick Perry comes closer to jumping into the race for the White House, he’s also close to the top of a new national survey in the battle for the GOP presidential nomination.
A CNN/ORC International Poll released Friday indicates that 14% of Republicans and independents who lean toward the GOP pick Perry as their first choice for their party’s nomination, just two points behind former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who’s making his second bid for the White House.
Romney’s two point margin over Perry is within the survey’s sampling error.
Right behind Perry come Sarah Palin and Rudy Giuliani, both at 13% and both within the MOE, too. None of these close finishers have actually declared a candidacy, which means that 40% of survey respondents not only are dissatisfied with the current lineup, they’ve picked non-candidates in their stead. That’s not good news for Romney, whose high profile from the 2007-8 campaign means that the problem isn’t a lack of familiarity with the electorate. Only 14% declare themselves “very satisfied” with the field, less than half of those who are either not very satisfied or not satisfied at all with the field (34%).
Bachmann finishes at 12%, the last candidate in double digits. Tim Pawlenty only gets 3% of the survey respondents’ endorsement, falling behind Ron Paul, Herman Cain, and Newt Gingrich, which puts a lot of pressure on Pawlenty to score big in next month’s Ames straw poll. Curiously, when Rick Perry gets removed from the list of choices, Bachmann scores best, picking up three points to finish tied for second with Palin at 15%.
Among independents, there are some surprising results. Mitt Romney finishes third at 12%, where Giuliani and Perry tie for second at 14% — and Bachmann wins at 15%. Bachmann comes in third among self-professed conservatives at 13%, with Romney beating her at 16%, but getting edged by Perry at 17%. Among both groups, Palin comes in fourth place. Not surprisingly, Perry wins the South handily, 21% to the 13% for Romney and, er, Giuliani? Romney and Giuliani also tie for first in the suburban demographic at 14%, with Perry close behind at 13%.
Clearly, Perry will be a force if and when he enters the race. If he’s the last person in, he may find even wider support, because right now it appears that Republicans are still holding their breath.
Blowback
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LoL!..I caught some of that last night..Oscar did not get me thank goodness..Gohawgs and Geo got Oscar..:)
Dire Straits on July 22, 2011 at 6:01 PM
Shilling for Rick Perry.
No mention of the ABC/WAPO poll showing Sarah Palin a dominant second place at 18% and leading all candidates on issues of empathy(understanding) and values and only 1 point behind Romney on “issues”.
technopeasant on July 22, 2011 at 6:01 PM
Have you seen canopfor?..
Dire Straits on July 22, 2011 at 6:03 PM
Well if you look at the latest Republican primary for Governor of Texas you can pretty much see how Perry will maneuver. In that race he had Kay Bailey Hutchison who is i bit of a RINO in the Romney mold and then there was Deborah Medina who is a Tea Party favorite. He navigated AWAY from KBH and toward the Tea Party side. Medina flamed out badly, so there wasn’t much of a challenge from that side. I think he’ll do the same nationally by isolating Romney and taking the lion’s share of support from Tea Partiers, Evangelicals and Fiscal Conservatives.
JonPrichard on July 22, 2011 at 6:03 PM
I have not.
MeatHeadinCA on July 22, 2011 at 6:05 PM
I have no problems with Cindy, but if you want to be hall monitor, you have to be fair and balanced. For instance, upthread it appears to be okay to call Romney supporters mittbuttboys, since no hall monitors stepped in say anything. That’s a bit more degrading and vile than calling someone a bot. Just a few months ago anyone at HA bringing up any negatives about Palin were swarmed by the nista hive and called troll, rino and worse.
That’s over now, Perry’s Troopers are gaining every day.
windansea on July 22, 2011 at 6:05 PM
It’s the flavor of the month….
Trump, Cain , Bachmann, Perry.
idesign on July 22, 2011 at 6:05 PM
Also HA no mention of Sarah Palin dominating among non-college types and those making under $50,000 a year, those one might refer to as the white working class.
Guess who does best with Reagan Democrats and crossover voters: Sarah Palin.
In 2010 the GOP won these voters 63% to 33%. Is there any wonder why Obama doesn’t want to face Palin in the general election?
But of course you don’t want this tidbit to get out, would you?
technopeasant on July 22, 2011 at 6:07 PM
I like it…:)
idesign on July 22, 2011 at 6:07 PM
I don’t think that Cindy was saying it was rude, vile, or offensive to call someone a Palinbot. She was pointing out that around here they are referred to as Palinistas, Mittbots, Paulnuts, and so on.
MeatHeadinCA on July 22, 2011 at 6:07 PM
And one more time like I posted on the first page of this thread.
It was in the headline threads 2 days ago.
Knucklehead on July 22, 2011 at 6:08 PM
idesign on July 22, 2011 at 6:05 PM
But this Perry flavor has been anticipated and yearned for by many for many months.
GaltBlvnAtty on July 22, 2011 at 6:08 PM
Gators are a funny thing to take. I’m hoping the Florida contingent of HotAirians can get together this Fall. And hopefully Knucklehead can wing on down.
Cindy Munford on July 22, 2011 at 6:09 PM
Clearly a playful (and correct) jab.
MeatHeadinCA on July 22, 2011 at 6:10 PM
save the calls to authority portlandope
I’ve been around along time too, and no, I don’t have chores to do, I’m enjoying a few cold ones in my oceanfront condo
you?
windansea on July 22, 2011 at 6:11 PM
I never gave an opinion about any of the names except for the frequency of use or cleverness. I am hardly likely to be offended by any but amused by most.
Cindy Munford on July 22, 2011 at 6:11 PM
Is everyone listening to The Won crying like a baby on TV?
Cindy Munford on July 22, 2011 at 6:13 PM
I would ask what TPaw’s fans are referred to, but on second thought, what fans?
MeatHeadinCA on July 22, 2011 at 6:13 PM
Ahhh… answer: Ed
MeatHeadinCA on July 22, 2011 at 6:14 PM
I’m not. ;(
MeatHeadinCA on July 22, 2011 at 6:14 PM
I realize that, which is why I replied somewhat playfully ‘who appointed you hall monitor” I have no problem with Cindy.
windansea on July 22, 2011 at 6:15 PM
LOL this thread is amusing to say the least.
gophergirl on July 22, 2011 at 6:15 PM
Sorry, went right over my head. I’ll stop shooting.
MeatHeadinCA on July 22, 2011 at 6:16 PM
Not enough pepto in my house to get through that.
gophergirl on July 22, 2011 at 6:16 PM
Thanks..
Dire Straits on July 22, 2011 at 6:16 PM
ROFL..That was funny..:)
Dire Straits on July 22, 2011 at 6:17 PM
Heck, Good Gravy!
*LOL
I’m not as conservative as most of you.
Seriously who needs all these guns.
If you don’t stop being extreme I won’t vote republican anymore.
HaHa /
Geochelone on July 22, 2011 at 6:17 PM
like I said above, no problem! Your comments are among the more sane here.
windansea on July 22, 2011 at 6:17 PM
What about?
gh on July 22, 2011 at 6:18 PM
My heart just skipped a beat! You got me!
MeatHeadinCA on July 22, 2011 at 6:18 PM
Wow is all I can say. What an evil man. And he made sure to pull this off during the evening news and everyone is going to believe this moron.
Knucklehead on July 22, 2011 at 6:19 PM
New thread up on Beohner walking out.
Knucklehead on July 22, 2011 at 6:20 PM
Apparently he didn’t give Barry a ciggy after the floor play ;)
MeatHeadinCA on July 22, 2011 at 6:21 PM
In other words, Romney leads an unannounced prospective candidate within the margin of error after spending untold tens of millions of dollars and after running for the last 5 years.
This reflects what has been apparent to all but the most casual of political observers for the last several years – namely, that Romney’s support is a mile wide and an inch deep.
In a losing candidacy, a candidate chases money (which Mitt does reasonably well).
In a winning one, money chases the candidate.
I can’t give Mitt any creedence whatsoever as a Presidential candidate because he appears to stand for absolutely nothing.
If he has core principals which govern his decisions, it is certainly a well kept secret.
I have been trying hard to find out what his core beliefs are, but he is an empty slate.
He is so afraid of saying something that someone, or anyone, will find unacceptable that he says nothing at all.
The Paul Ryan plan represents one of the greatest (and certainly first) examples of political courage in the last several decades. The GOP House passed it, almost unanimously, I believe. But not Mitt. No, he has a better plan that he simply hasn’t found the time to share.
He is nothing more than an overly scripted composite of the day to day guidance of political consultants, pollsters and hacks.
He isn’t a real candidate, he is just a default candidate.
People are thirsting for a leader who actually stands for something.
Playing to the middle is so 1990s. Someone forgot to tell Mitt.
So at some point, Mitt will be yesterday’s news and will wonder where his status as the leader of the GOP pack went.
Remember, Mitt, that 4 short years ago the presumptive nominees were Rudy and Hillary, at least until Obama cast himself as more liberal than Hillary, thereby brilliantly outflanking her to the left and leaving her high and dry.
At this point, a Perry – Bachman ticket looks unbeatable to me, at least unless Obama steps down and lets someone else try to salvage the Presidency for the Democrats (think: Frank Lautenburg several years ago when Robert Toricelli had the NJ Senate race lost as a result of his felonious behavior.
molonlabe28 on July 22, 2011 at 6:25 PM
LOL! I just wish I was funnier. Sane is overrated.
Cindy Munford on July 22, 2011 at 6:27 PM
I am watching and listening. Everything, he says, is the fault of the House Republicans, who he says will not compromise on Anything, even though they already have. He and the democrats are most willing to give up on almost everything.
GaltBlvnAtty on July 22, 2011 at 6:28 PM
Something about being left at the altar a couple of times. Sounds like a personal problem.
Cindy Munford on July 22, 2011 at 6:29 PM
I think he’s gonna cry
windansea on July 22, 2011 at 6:34 PM
LOL
windansea on July 22, 2011 at 6:35 PM
Thanks. I found it. Boehner’s statement is posted in the corner at NRO.
gh on July 22, 2011 at 6:36 PM
We have a thread up about it now. Upper left hand side. Good golly this guy is a twit.
Cindy Munford on July 22, 2011 at 6:41 PM
Watching someone slowly lose there mind is a sad thing to see. Like a car wreck though, wondering who will get there first between you and steebo makes it hard to look away.
Reality.
xblade on July 22, 2011 at 6:43 PM
Now be intellectually honest for once and tell us why, if you’re capable. Here, let me help you…..it’s kind of hard to create new jobs when you’re already at full employment.
And no, I’m not a Romneybot. He’s probably the only candidate I won’t vote for. That doesn’t mean I’m going to make up lame arguments against him just because my candidate doesn’t have a chance in hell of winning like some mental patients here like to do.
xblade on July 22, 2011 at 7:02 PM
Go easy on windansea, it all looks like a misunderstanding.
cartooner on July 22, 2011 at 7:03 PM
Windansea and I have history here at HotAir.
I now what I’m doing.
portlandon on July 22, 2011 at 7:13 PM
Thanks, cartooner. Appreciate the help! The “Dear Yankee” article by Burka is from this month’s addition, and he does a great job.
silvernana on July 22, 2011 at 7:31 PM
nowknow.portlandon on July 22, 2011 at 7:44 PM
That’s hilarious!
silvernana on July 22, 2011 at 7:44 PM
Ru Day!
AshleyTKing on July 22, 2011 at 8:25 PM
Here are the links so people don’t have to go to page one to click them.
thanks again for the links.
http://www.texasmonthly.com/2011-08-01/btl.php
http://www.texasmonthly.com/magazine/perry
Like I posted earlier, Interesting excerpts from “Dear Yankees – 8 things to know about Perry”:
he has a strategically valuable knack for being underestimated by his critics . . .
. Perry is not George Bush. . . . . Perry has been the opposite kind of chief executive: dismissive of Democrats and fond of political maneuvers that put the heat on moderates within his own party. . . . Perry, the son of a Big Country cotton farmer, is at ease with a populist tea party message . . . .
Perry has won every race he’s ever run. . . . .
. It’s not a big deal that Perry was once a Democrat. To suggest otherwise will make you look foolish. When Perry was elected to the statehouse, in 1985, conservative Democrats ran the Legislature . . . .
. Texas is not a “weak governor” state. A common misconception. It used to be true, but during his historic governorship, Perry has reinvented the office as a power center . . .
He is the kind of politician who would rather be feared than loved—or respected . . .
Perry’s parents were tenant farmers, and not just tenant farmers but dryland farmers, which is as hard as farming gets. . . . Perry also described taking baths in the number two washtub and using an outhouse until his father built indoor plumbing in his early years. “We were rich,” Perry said, “but not in material things . . .
Perry is an Aggie . . . A&M military culture . . . Perry bought all the way in, becoming a yell leader. To this day, Perry’s style on the stump is that of the Aggie yell leader (“Are you fired up?”). . . .
If you look at Perry’s career, it seems that fate is always arranging the universe so that its favorite son will be in the right place at the right time
Elisa on July 22, 2011 at 10:11 PM
OT… Palin just posted on Facebook
OnlyOrange on July 22, 2011 at 10:16 PM
For those who think Perry is simply “the flavor of the month” I guess we shall see come September, won’t we?
He is strong, he is vetted, he has the record and the creds, the political and governing experience and a proven campaigner and he will have the money, if he enters, and I think he will.
I think in the end he will galvanize the tea party vote and upend Romney, even taking some of Romney’s support. Tea partier and independents will like him and he is acceptable to establishment types.
Elisa on July 22, 2011 at 10:17 PM
thanks for that. Great excerpt from Palin:
“He has been deemed a lame duck president. And he is angry now because he is being treated as such.
His foreign policy strategy has been described as “leading from behind.” Well, that’s his domestic policy strategy as well.”
Elisa on July 22, 2011 at 10:19 PM
Thanks. Sarah is right on.
I agree with your analysis completely.
cartooner on July 22, 2011 at 10:59 PM
That’s supposed to make him more likeable? There shouldn’t be any “establishment types” to begin with. We don’t want them hanging around.
darwin on July 22, 2011 at 11:35 PM
He’s acceptable not he is. There is a difference. In the end, we need all the resources possible. Perry is a strict 10th Amendment guy and very anti-Washington.
cartooner on July 22, 2011 at 11:53 PM
LOL
You cannot equate what actually happened…ie, a RECORD…with a projection, especially this far out.
The REALITY is what has actually occurred not what has yet to be.
Yikes.
powerpro on July 23, 2011 at 1:23 AM
Not really. There’s a reason he’s “more acceptable to the establishment”.
ddrintn on July 23, 2011 at 1:31 AM
But he won’t beat Romney. Perry just doesn’t have the grassroots support to pull it off, sorry. Perry would rely on big-donor types happy to see someone who’s not Palin. That’s it. It’s not about Perry or his 74-year record as governor or the number of jobs in Texas. It’s about keeping Palin on the sidelines.
And if Perry were to beat Romney, I don’t think he’d get past Obama. They’d make Perry look like a Ku Klux Klan version of Bush Inc. before it was all over. Southern white governor against First Black President ™ ? LOL Please. Imagine the problems Haley Barbour would’ve had with that one. Same goes for Perry.
ddrintn on July 23, 2011 at 1:39 AM
Well, if Perry gets in and all indications are that he will, Giuliani will not, and Palin probably will not, he is certainly the favorite to become the “not Romney” candidate. He has appeal to social conservatives like Bachmann, Pawlenty, Cain, and Santorum, but his executive experience trumps Michelle, Tim, and Rick, and Herb’s never won an election.
Pawlenty’s only hope is a surprise win or second in Iowa. He really needs to beat Bachmann there, because it will be a long road before he gets back to midwestern states he can compete in (Michigan being Romney territory). Bachmann cannot afford another weakening story like the migraines. She is flimsy on experience, has not led in the legislature, and her vaunted fundraising machine hasn’t impressed.
Santorum, Gingrich, Huntsman, and Johnson are just running to boost their name recognition for future offices or to boost book sales and speech bookings. Paul is running because he likes it, and his fellow nuts always receive him warmly. Cain, like Pawlenty, needs some big upset win early or he’s cold burnt toast.
Because of the dynamics of American politics, just as we always divide into two basic parties, races end up between two viable candidates. Sometimes fringe candidates can stay in for their own reasons, but they have no chance of winning. So get ready for Romney v Perry for the right to save the country from Obama. And resolve to support the winner with all your heart, or you might as well be one of Obama’s union thugs.
Adjoran on July 23, 2011 at 2:04 AM
Perry is a flip-flopper. He worked for Al Gore before he worked against him! Perry is a large part of the reason that charlatan rose to power.
NEXT!
scotash on July 23, 2011 at 2:55 AM
It’s not foolish to ask questions though … is it?
Democrats are the party of big government, and I mean big government. They’re also the entitlement party. Both these characteristics were in full display when Perry began his political career. That means at least on some level he agreed with them.
Has he done anything to either shrink government or stop it’s growth? What about government giveaways. Has he done anything to reduce them?
What democrat party principles has he rejected? Are there any he still believes in?
It’s a big deal because if Perry wins, he may not go about shrinking the government or entitlements as aggressively as some others, if at all.
darwin on July 23, 2011 at 7:24 AM
Yeah, right. I didn’t support McCain “with all my heart” in 2008, but that didn’t make me the equivalent of one of Obama’s union thugs. It made me someone who’s tired of having to hold my nose to vote. I have a feeling that 2012 will be no different and that Obama will be re-elected. Mark it down.
ddrintn on July 23, 2011 at 7:45 AM
I have a question. Wasn’t Reagan initially a Democrat also? I remember him referring to it in a speech once.
Red State State of Mind on July 23, 2011 at 7:54 AM
I think any random wino picked up off the street can beat Obama. The guy is simply scaring the crap out of ordinary people who normally pay no attention to politics.
The only way Obama could win is massive voter fraud.
darwin on July 23, 2011 at 7:56 AM
Yes. He said he didn’t leave the democrat party, it left him.
darwin on July 23, 2011 at 7:57 AM
You couldn’t be more wrong. Never, ever write off any candidate who has the Dem/union machine AND the media complex behind him. Look at the economy and all Obama’s blunders. He should have a 20% approval rating by now, if not lower. He doesn’t.
ddrintn on July 23, 2011 at 8:38 AM
if the economy (debt ceiling/default) hasn’t collapsed by the time the GOP Convention rolls around….
…..Captain ANTI-America is very very beatable.
Perry, Palin, Romney, my cousin Butch, our dog Maynge, our outhouse Lula, even the pond scum over on the back of the property could beat BHO.
PappyD61 on July 23, 2011 at 9:52 AM
I’m not writing him off. I don’t believe he’s as popular as the media is trying to make him out to be.
darwin on July 23, 2011 at 10:06 AM
You’re right. We should run the most elite, machine-oriented, establishment candidate we can find.
Like McCain.
fossten on July 23, 2011 at 11:16 AM
You couldn’t be more dense if you tried.
Uncle Sams Nephew on July 23, 2011 at 11:27 AM
Why is anybody still talking about Romney?
Romneycare = failure to launch.
Pablo Snooze on July 23, 2011 at 3:35 PM
IDK. Maybe because he is the front runner? Maybe because unless Perry gets in the race he will be the nominee in all probability.
MJBrutus on July 23, 2011 at 6:06 PM
“Perry, who is considering running for president, at a forum in Colorado on Friday called himself an “unapologetic social conservative” and said he opposes gay marriage — but that he’s also a firm believer in the 10th Amendment, the Associated Press reported.
“Our friends in New York six weeks ago passed a statute that said marriage can be between two people of the same sex. And you know what? That’s New York, and that’s their business, and that’s fine with me,” he said to applause from several hundred GOP donors in Aspen, the AP reported.
“That is their call. If you believe in the 10th Amendment, stay out of their business.”
Akzed on July 23, 2011 at 8:15 PM
T-Pawns.
steebo77 on July 23, 2011 at 8:40 PM
I’ll bet I could, if I just emulated you for a day.
fossten on July 23, 2011 at 10:29 PM
The only one who’d stop Romney is Palin, and deep down everyone knows it. That’s why there’s the frantic pimping of Perry from the unlikeliest people. I’d think a good chunk of the ABPers would be horrified by a socon like Perry. But hmmm…they’re not. Wonder why.
ddrintn on July 24, 2011 at 8:22 AM
Perry impressed me with his recent statement on NY’s same-sex marriage law. If Perry runs, he could well get my vote. I really appreciate a candidate with the courage of his convictions; Perry is perfect on the same-sex marriage issue; it’s a state’s rights issue. That’s the definition of freedom; the people decide, and if you don’t like it, you can vote with your feet. But at least you have a voice. If it were left up to people like Mayor Bloomberg–who will preside over the marriages because he supports it–ONLY PROGRESSIVES would ever get to decide about your life. Look what he’s done in New York. The man is a LIBERAL progressive, i.e., a BOLSHEVIK, who thinks he should decide how much SALT you eat, or whether or not you smell a cigarette burning within a mile of you OUTSIDE. He is a MENACE to society. But fine; I choose not to live in New York City; I get to vote with my feet. So, kudos to Rick Perry for so beautifully and perfectly expressing a CONSERVATIVE viewpoint!
mountainaires on July 24, 2011 at 3:31 PM
That’s all well and good until we come to the “full faith and credit” clause. Perry’s position is a well-calculated applause line, but it can’t hold permanently.
ddrintn on July 24, 2011 at 4:50 PM
To anyone opining about Perry previously being a Democrat, so was Ronald Reagan. It isn’t about what you were yesterday, its what you are today! Yakety Yak.
AReadyRepub on July 25, 2011 at 1:40 AM
Don’t talk back!
|-}
Uncle Sams Nephew on July 25, 2011 at 9:49 AM
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