Meanwhile, in the South China Sea: “Forget the US”
posted at 1:35 pm on July 19, 2011 by J.E. Dyer
Senator James Webb (D-VA) told David Gregory on Meet the Press three weeks ago that he thinks the US is facing a “Munich moment” with China in Southeast Asia. While no exact analogy is on the horizon to the original Munich moment – Neville Chamberlain proclaiming “peace in our time” after agreeing with Hitler to the partition of Czechoslovakia – Webb’s larger point is that China’s career of aggression in the South China Sea needs checking.
Recent activity
Perhaps a better analogy would be calling the current situation in the South China Sea a prospective remilitarization-of-the-Rhine moment. In any case, Webb is right that there are things to worry about. China has been systematically occupying and fortifying tiny islands in the Paracel and Spratly chains for decades, as have other claimants like Vietnam and the Philippines. But growing Chinese aggression against the maritime activities of Vietnam, which has included damaging the equipment of oil exploration vessels and attacking Vietnamese fishing ships, has the region on edge.
South China Sea and Strait of Malacca
China has also, in 2010 and 2011, conducted two lengthy naval exercises in which her naval task force drilled in the Miyako Strait in the Japanese archipelago. (During the most recent one, in June 2011, the Chinese were observed launching a maritime drone from one of the ships while operating near Japanese territory.) Coincident with the task force deployment, China’s special forces conducted their first-ever joint training with the special forces of Indonesia, an interesting and high-profile rapprochement between two nations that in many ways have kept a wary distance for decades.
At the end of the exercise period (mid-June was a busy time for China’s maritime assertiveness program), the patrol ship Haixun-31, nominally a fisheries protection/maritime security vessel, conducted a patrol of disputed waters in the Spratly and Paracel Islands on the way to and from a port visit in Singapore. Singapore had not been told in advance that the ship would be performing this mission, and was thus put in a difficult diplomatic situation, ultimately lodging a protest over the implication of Singapore in Beijing’s assertion of excessive maritime claims.
While this Chinese action may seem to Americans like the least significant among recent events, it is in some ways the most important. Singapore, located at the eastern entrance to the Strait of Malacca (SOM), has long maintained a careful neutrality on the most freighted regional issues – and has been bolstered in this posture by the United States. Singapore’s independence and neutrality are guarantors of international access to the SOM, a linchpin of US security policy in the region. Singapore makes it a point to get along with everyone, but to be in no one’s pocket; her arrangements with the US are friendly and of long standing, but do not involve a defense treaty like the ones we have with the Philippines, Thailand, and Japan.
But Singapore is tiny; her independent status is largely a quiescent artifact of the Pax Americana in the region. A diplomatic raid on Singapore’s neutrality – effectively what the Chinese patrol ship’s visit amounted to – is a shot across the bow of the status quo. Everyone in the region has known for decades that China wants to have her excessive maritime claims acknowledged, but a sneak attack on Singapore’s neutrality ratchets things up to a higher level. This move went straight for the central strategic interest of the US: the Strait of Malacca.
A game-changing maritime move
The next milestone in China’s effort to assert sovereignty over the South China Sea is anticipated to be the installation of a one-of-a-kind drilling platform in an area of the Spratly archipelago that falls in the Philippine economic exclusion zone (EEZ) (see map for approximate location). The giant semi-submersible platform is reportedly to be towed out from China and installed this month. If Marine Oil 981 is indeed towed to the proposed site, it is not clear what will be done about it. The Philippines has dispatched naval forces to patrol the waters in her EEZ, but in a naval confrontation with China, the Philippine navy would have no chance.
Yet this is the move that cannot be allowed to stand. The maritime claims on which China bases her assertion of the right to install this platform are excessive by the terms of the UN Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and conflict with the claims of the other nations with extensive coastlines on the South China Sea (see also here, and see map below). If China can force Marine Oil 981 on the region, without effective pushback, Chinese power will make the incremental but game-changing shift from regional challenger to regional arbiter of the status quo.
Hillary Clinton is attending the ASEAN conference this week in Indonesia, where the most important topic will be sorting out the South China Sea. Her foray into this topic at last year’s ASEAN summit was decidedly ham-handed, sending “shock waves” through East Asia (the consensus of Asian opinion media) with the implication that the US was suddenly interested in arbitrating the disputed claims in the region. We can hope that this year’s expressions of American policy are more felicitous. We can also hope that a series of US Naval exercises with Vietnam, the Philippines, Australia, and others will act as a deterrent.
China's excessive maritime claims; BBC map
But Asians are by no means sanguine about that effect. At a recent conference on defense topics held in the Philippines, a retired Indian general officer said of the prospect that the US might intervene to block China: “Forget the U.S. It will not happen. They are going to sleep.” Perhaps it’s too soon to render this judgment, but Jim Webb has good reason to be worried. China is pushing harder, in spite of the toughness putatively being displayed by the US with our joint military exercises around China’s perimeter.
Strategic considerations
And the stakes are high. Analysts tend to focus on the economic aspect of the South China Sea disputes, in part because raw materials are the principal issue for most of the claimants. But for China, that’s only part of the story. This recent article highlights the significance of the South China Sea to China’s security posture; while I am undecided as to how much China wants to use the sea as a “bastion” for ballistic-missile submarines (it’s not an absurd idea, but has drawbacks), the point that China sees naval control of the sea as paramount is well taken. By exercising control of the Spratlys, Paracels, and other islands inside the “U-line” of her maritime claims, China could keep shipping through the area under a 24/7 threat from cruise missiles deployed in the islands.
China’s intentions for the South China Sea are not analogous to America’s in the Gulf of Mexico; we neither exercise nor seek to exercise the same kind of positive control beyond the limits of our recognized claims. Independent of US policy, the first objectors to China’s posture in Southeast Asia are the other nations with legitimate EEZ claims, on which China proposes to infringe. The South China Sea dispute is about whether the US will enforce an international “rule of law” environment in which longstanding conventions are honored, smaller nations are not imposed upon, and threats to shipping are not allowed to gain the upper hand.
Richard Fernandez is concerned that the US national debt, and Obama’s hope to expand it by borrowing more from China, will determine the outcome of the South China Sea drama. And China may well wait out the ASEAN conference and the 2 August debt-mageddon date before deciding when to haul Marine Oil 981 down to the Philippine EEZ. But if it is installed, media silence in the US will not be able to obscure the significance of the shift in the power calculus. Putting more US Navy ships in the area, exercising with the nations of the region, complaining publicly about China’s behavior – all of these are poor substitutes for blocking China’s big move before it happens. We must hope that can be achieved.
J.E. Dyer’s articles have appeared at The Green Room, Commentary’s “contentions,” Patheos, The Weekly Standard online, and her own blog, The Optimistic Conservative.
This post was promoted from GreenRoom to HotAir.com.
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Don’t expect President Wuss to stand up to them.
Ward Cleaver on July 19, 2011 at 1:40 PM
“The World Opinion” desires a world without US domination. The Philippines, once upon a corrupt leader looking to score some easy points with the morons, wanted that specific part of the world without US domination.
You all have your wish. Good luck with that.
MNHawk on July 19, 2011 at 1:41 PM
Ask and you shall receive, World.
HitNRun on July 19, 2011 at 1:43 PM
I made several visits to Olongapo in ’87 and ’89; at the time we were concerned about the USSR. When we folded up the tent in Subic Bay, we opened the door for China to rule this area.
The same will happen if liberals get there wish and we pull out of the middle east and then Europe. Someone will fill the vacuum- the question is, who?
BKeyser on July 19, 2011 at 1:43 PM
We may be “going to sleep”, but this is making headlines in the Philippines & getting the attention of my family & friends there.
Unfortunately, we in the US typically are more interested in the latest pop tart scandal than we are in foreign policy.
itsnotaboutme on July 19, 2011 at 1:46 PM
We just need to change the Constitution to allow Obama to serve 3 terms, survive a decade of grinding economic depression, then he’ll be around to lead us in the US-China war that will finally pull our economy out of its tail spin. Then he and all of his wrongheaded policies will get the credit.
Those ignorant of history…
tommylotto on July 19, 2011 at 1:46 PM
Barry will give a speech in Chinatown and all will be well.
ouldbollix on July 19, 2011 at 1:46 PM
oh, crud monkeys.
Minorcan Maven on July 19, 2011 at 1:46 PM
The One will just apologize, talk and bow to them. All will be alright and forgotten. The media will cover it as a raise in revenue for the Chinese government to use for economic justice.
bej on July 19, 2011 at 1:50 PM
And what will Europe do when we refuse to protect them? Because does ANYONE think that Obama has the stones to stand up to anyone?
search4truth on July 19, 2011 at 1:50 PM
Maybe the Germans and Austrians will re-unite and then demand the Sarkovsky’s head?
Seriously, naval power in the pacific must be taken seriously but let’s not focus on fighting vague, unknown enemies.
If the Chinese are smart, their best strategy is to try and start an arms race with the US, attempting to push the US over the financial brink in a game that it can’t afford to play.
bayam on July 19, 2011 at 1:53 PM
So the Cold War is not really quite so ‘over’?
slickwillie2001 on July 19, 2011 at 1:53 PM
Our very own Cham’bama has the “PEAS in our time” moment -
Telling the nation to “Don’t forget to eat your peas.”
Sir Napsalot on July 19, 2011 at 1:54 PM
It was just over a week ago that Gen. Chen Bingde, China’s top military officer said that U.S. military exercises in the South China Sea “inappropriate.” He then chided America for spending too much money on defense.
Tommy_G on July 19, 2011 at 1:56 PM
Barack Chamberlain will fold faster than a house of cards.
ErnstBlofeld on July 19, 2011 at 2:01 PM
I’m a Pacific Fleet Sailor from way back and this is not a surprise. The Chinese have been practicing hegemony aggressively for 25 years in the South China Sea. As they become stronger and stronger as a “Blue Water Navy,” they will be a BIG problem for us in the Pacific.
NavyMustang on July 19, 2011 at 2:02 PM
I expect a strongly worded resolution from the UN within hours.
BobMbx on July 19, 2011 at 2:03 PM
Look!
Over there!
Unicorns!!!!!
BallisticBob on July 19, 2011 at 2:04 PM
This’ll blow over.
Akzed on July 19, 2011 at 2:16 PM
Beat me to it.
Hey OT, did something just happen to make the PM prices nosedive?
Was there a debt deal or something?
Chip on July 19, 2011 at 2:17 PM
Precious metals prices fell to fresh daily lows in afternoon trading when President Obama made a statement on television that he is now more confident Democrats and Republicans can come together on the U.S. debt-ceiling issue.
BallisticBob on July 19, 2011 at 2:20 PM
China will be the dominant world power by 2050 if not sooner.
DarkCurrent on July 19, 2011 at 2:21 PM
Been there -seen that.
They might be moving toward those disputed oil beds in the Spratleys, though I suspect they might be mimicking pre-WWII in the SE Asia and the Phillipines, only they’ll use intimidation at this point.
With a wimp warrior expect them to push hard lookiong for us to raise the white flag with a tsk, tsk, to satisfy our left and RINO politicians who make Chamberlain look couragous by comparison.
This is interesting comeing on the tail of an article that says most folks are willing to cut the blazes out of our military. History teaches puffed-headed fools nothing.
Don L on July 19, 2011 at 2:21 PM
Yeh, but did you know that Kim Kardashian doesn’t have butt implants and that the Bachelorette slept with that P.I.G. pig Bentley?!!
Alden Pyle on July 19, 2011 at 2:23 PM
I see you learned nothing when I answered your same argument last night on the Plurality-ready-for-significant-military-cuts thread.
Why can’t we get better trolls?
NaCly dog on July 19, 2011 at 2:25 PM
If military power is predicated on economic power, then you’re right, the future looks grim.
As for naval hegemony off China’s coast, it’s hard to see how the US can maintain power over such a powerful rival when it comes at such a great distance from our own shores.
bayam on July 19, 2011 at 2:26 PM
People are more concerend about whats on TMZ or “Dancing with the Stars”.
Bunch of freakin’ mush heads.
BallisticBob on July 19, 2011 at 2:27 PM
Thanks, I should have looked for that – that just looked like an awfully steep dive.
Chip on July 19, 2011 at 2:27 PM
China will be the dominant world power by 2050 if not sooner.
DarkCurrent on July 19, 2011 at 2:21 PM
**************************
No doubt aided by Obama.
It sort of makes you wonder if history will show that they helped Obama win in 2008.
NMRN123 on July 19, 2011 at 2:32 PM
Maybe Moochelle will let him take them out of the jar on the top shelf of her closet where she keeps them.
Aviator on July 19, 2011 at 2:34 PM
It was going to happen anyway. Obama just sped it up.
DarkCurrent on July 19, 2011 at 2:35 PM
**************************
China will dominate only if our leaders choose to let it.
slickwillie2001 on July 19, 2011 at 2:36 PM
Why do you think so?
DarkCurrent on July 19, 2011 at 2:38 PM
China plays chess while Obama plays golf.
ZenDraken on July 19, 2011 at 2:39 PM
Webb will have his buddy, Barry, get right on it. Someday. Seeing as Barry prefers ‘to lead from behind’.
GarandFan on July 19, 2011 at 2:46 PM
It was going to happen anyway. Obama just sped it up.
DarkCurrent on July 19, 2011 at 2:35 PM
**************************************
There were some inklings that Obama’s fund-raising in 2008, was not all up to snuff.
It’s not beyond the realm of reason to suspect a quid pro quo here.
NMRN123 on July 19, 2011 at 2:47 PM
Do you do any research before you answer? Looks like you are fact-free, bayan.
1) The majority of the US Navy is based adjacent to the Pacific Ocean.
2) The US Navy has ships based in Japan and Guam.
3) We routinely deploy combat ready task forces in the South China Sea, and have done so since 1944.
4) Underway Replenishment gives our Navy global reach.
5) Naval ships are mobile. We had SIX carrier battle groups off of Iraq in 1991. Given proper warning from our intelligence services (always an iffy bet) we can move ships from the Med, the Persian Gulf, the Indian Ocean and the Atlantic to the South China Sea, if needed.
6) China needs to use shipping lanes also, and we are very well positioned to interdict China’s critical supply lines outside the range of China’s power projection.
7) All of this is predicated on not gutting the military budget. DOD can do without Congressional earmarks, but funding for operations and training should be untouched.
8) Economic Power will return to the US of A if Leftist, Democrats and other parasites are removed from power by elections.
NaCly dog on July 19, 2011 at 2:48 PM
Leftist like to approach every subject unencumbered by facts and just go on Feelings.
Chip on July 19, 2011 at 2:54 PM
NaCly dog said it better than I, you are Fact Free. Most Leftists are.
The US has 11 Carrier Strike Groups. 1 is always deployed in Japan. And our first new Ford Class Carrier will be ready in 4 years.
And the last Nimitz-Class carrier will be around for a while. It’s not due to be decommissioned until 2058.
Del Dolemonte on July 19, 2011 at 3:01 PM
So what? At some point we have to recognize that large powerful nations will have spheres of influence. We wouldn’t take sh*t from the Venezuelans if they started poking around in disputed waters, would we?
ernesto on July 19, 2011 at 3:01 PM
It’ll be India. In China, sooner than later, there will be the biggest uprising of the extremely poor masses you’ve ever heard of.
Schadenfreude on July 19, 2011 at 3:05 PM
ernesto on July 19, 2011 at 3:01 PM
Risible
Schadenfreude on July 19, 2011 at 3:06 PM
Obama is not Reagan, much as the narcissitic undeveloped teenager fantasizes about it.
Schadenfreude on July 19, 2011 at 3:07 PM
hard to see how the US can maintain power over such a powerful rival when it comes at such a great distance from our own shores.
bayam on July 19, 2011 at 2:26 PM
they have ONE piece o sheet soviet relic for aa AC carrier
they font have any tech advantage in military equipment
they do have a fellow dirty commie in the WH but he may have awoken the dormant minds in the US to just how bad the left and big government are to them
hold fast and run the bums out of office and start chopping down the size of our bureaucracy
Sonosam on July 19, 2011 at 3:10 PM
Let them have their lebensraum, what could go wrong?
Chip on July 19, 2011 at 3:10 PM
China was the second largest economic power heading into the 20th century.
China was the second largest economic power heading into the 21st century.
China has a huge problem of a very poor population, a fiat currency, a dustbowl, muslim terrorists in the far western provinces, a communist-purist revanchment in one province, a society liquidated by cheap technology, and the largest building spree of empty cities ever seen… oh, and a population crash as there are way too many men due to the old ‘one child policy’ and the older workforce that can only be worked for so long before it becomes unproductive.
Other than that it will dominate the world by 2050… oh… wait… it will have problems feeding itself by 2050 or maintaining a population or retaining a cohesive internal structure due to social, economic and religious vectors at play. Yes the regime has plans, and big plans. The population, however, may not be on-board with those plans. And the biggest buyer of cheap Chinese goods is in a major economic downturn which has thrown a huge wrench into the plans business.
China will be the second largest economic power heading into the 22nd century is what it is shaping up to be. China wants to be big after decades of trying to make their population smaller. No good nor hegemony will come of that… war, maybe, but long-term stability at home? Uh-uh.
ajacksonian on July 19, 2011 at 3:10 PM
So what? At some point we have to lay our heads on the chopping block so that Sharia adherents exercise their multicultural demands. We are just part of the world, not the world.
Schadenfreude on July 19, 2011 at 3:15 PM
I am so glad that Obama declared U.S. airborne laser anti-missile defense systems as being too costly and ineffective and canceled the projects just as they started showing real functionality in the field. Coincidentally, the Chinese soon followed with publicity about their new ballistic anti-carrier missiles against which only the laser systems would have been effective. Now the best we’ll be able to do is sail wildly in circles and zig-zags like the Japanese fleet did when under airborne assault in WWII. So, the idea that we can mass several carrier groups in the South China Sea and Taiwan Straits, etc. just brings guffaws from Chinese military leaders. No longer a credible threat when the carrier can be resting on the bottom of the sea without warning minutes from when the Chinese press a button.
Obama is a certified genius.
in_awe on July 19, 2011 at 3:21 PM
We could finish china with ONE Ohio class boomer
Sonosam on July 19, 2011 at 3:25 PM
To your unmitigated joy no doubt.
Machiavelli Hobbes on July 19, 2011 at 3:29 PM
It’s not surprising that you are clueless about this relationship.
Regardless of what is and isn’t hard for you to see, it’s certainly possible for the US to resolve itself to keep its edge over China in the area.
blink on July 19, 2011 at 3:33 PM
Obama, like Atlas, put the world on his shoulders.
Then dropped it and broke it.
Beyond repair.
Thanks idiot.
fogw on July 19, 2011 at 3:36 PM
Going to war w/ China is gonna really suck but, I just hope it sux more for them then us.
esnap on July 19, 2011 at 3:37 PM
When the Japanese gathered their forces and attacked Pearl Harbor, they believed that no one could mount a sustained offensive across the Pacific Ocean’s east/west island less expanses.
Slowburn on July 19, 2011 at 3:47 PM
Going to war w/ China is gonna really suck but, I just hope it sux more for them then us.
esnap on July 19, 2011 at 3:37 PM
They know better than that
that’s why they just put Clinton and obongo and tried for gore
effing traitors
Sonosam on July 19, 2011 at 3:47 PM
Certainly we cannot with socialist wimps in office. But perhaps after we clean house . . .
Which is exactly why the Chinese are making their moves now, of course, while we have a spineless weasel at the helm who only bows down to their wishes.
Adjoran on July 19, 2011 at 3:49 PM
To be completely fair to you, short of massive financial reworking at home or a war effort on par with WW2…we can’t. Our economy is already staggering under a triple-header of overburdening taxes, job exporting, and federal mismanagement.
Hell, we can’t even manage to win a couple wars where we’re fighting a handful of sand rats! A mostly-modernized nation with a huge portion of the world’s population to draw upon for soldiers? Forget it.
Uncle Sams Nephew on July 19, 2011 at 3:53 PM
This has been going on for more than a decade. Ever since the Chinese decided they needed a “blue water” navy. There was the P-3/J-8 mid-air collision just when W took office and several “bumping” incidents since then. At first it was over fishing grounds, then oil in the Spratley’s. China is flexing its new muscles and seeing what it can get away with.
They want to become the major naval power in the western Pacific and are building the ships and infrastructure to be it…decades from now if everything else stays the same. The other countries in the area realize this, and unlike Europe, are joining forces to counter the Chinese buildup. The Japanese will have up to four aircraft carriers able to operate the F-35 before the Chinese have a single carrier.
With the US navy for a backstop, China’s neighbors should be okay on their own.
On the down side for the Chinese, they have invested a lot of money in the Panama canal, refineries that can handle Venezuelan crude (not sure how far along that is) and lots of money in western countries. Not to mention what could happen to their western markets if the fecal matter comes in contact with the air handling device.
Even as dovish as Europe has become, will they do nothing if China makes a play?
This all makes for an interesting plot for a movie, or book. As reality though, not so much.
cozmo on July 19, 2011 at 4:14 PM
You may be confusing DarkCurrent with bayam
Bayam is the National Socialist Leftist.
Chip on July 19, 2011 at 4:20 PM
Cozmo, our allies Japan and South Korea are the linchpins to containment. The Japanese esp. have a fine Navy. They did well in the exercises I saw.
With their help the Chinese are outflanked and outclassed. It behooves us to keep our alliances with them strong. I sure hope the Korean and Japanese governments can overlook PBHO classless incompetence. World peace has an enemy in PBHO’s inaction and action. As President he is increasing the risk of global conflict, per the guidelines in The Causes of War by Geoffrey Blainey.
NaCly dog on July 19, 2011 at 4:30 PM
It’s 3 a.m…… the phone is ringing…… nobody is at home, they are on vacation.
ultracon on July 19, 2011 at 4:33 PM
China was the largest economic power for most of the last 1,500 years. It will be again soon. Don’t kid yourself.
DarkCurrent on July 19, 2011 at 4:40 PM
Remembering when the dems were insisting that China would not seek to build a blue-sea navy..
NORUK on July 19, 2011 at 4:55 PM
Why is it unreasonable for China to want a blue-water navy given the history of the last 2 centuries?
DarkCurrent on July 19, 2011 at 4:59 PM
No it is rather predictable that China would want to develop a blue-water navy… I just commented on how the dems (and others) were sticking their heads firmly in the sands when it came to recognizing the future hmm challenge China represent.
NORUK on July 19, 2011 at 5:04 PM
One of my in-laws is a Senor Colonel in the Vietnamese military. This is serious business. Note, the thoughts below are my thoughts and have nothing to do with his views which are not shared with Americans, even in-laws..
The issue is that ASEAN plus the other interested Asian countries can destroy China in weeks or at most a couple of months by imposing a blockade on Chinese destined shipping. Due to geography this is fairly easy to impose and defend. It is horribly difficult for China to defeat short of all out nuclear war against the rest of Asia.
The one thing that America, and hopefully the other nuclear powers, must do is put a nuclear umbrella over the war zone. My first hand experience with the Japanese Navy is from 1972-1974 when I was stationed at NAS Atsugi. From what I know the Japanese Navy is still first rate.
I expect that Viet Nam will bear the brunt of the fighting. A Chinese invasion and capture of say the Phan Rang Air Force Base could be a game changer as it would put the Strait of Malacca with in easy reach of the Chinese Air Force.
Note, I am retired US military Navy and Army National Guard and mostly live in Viet Nam where I served three tours, one aboard ship off the coast and two in country.
Linh_My on July 19, 2011 at 5:17 PM
In general the West is playing Russian Roulette with China, teching up an authocracy in the hope of it becoming more democratic. Never mind the current stark aggressino against neighbours, what about China in a few years time with a ‘strongman’ emerging from the military?
Project Capitalist China is an unholy union between the western business world and leftie ‘head-in-the-sand’ appeasers. As a right wing free-trader I acknowledge the clear upside, but the under-reported downside is scary.
lets hope the china bullet-chamber is empty.
NORUK on July 19, 2011 at 5:21 PM
Do you think we should help Vietnam arm up?
slickwillie2001 on July 19, 2011 at 5:48 PM
Hm, we can solve this crisis by simply declaring our debt to the Chinese is null and void IF they continue with their ridiculous claims with their U line and don’t go back to the 200 mile limit lines. So we either solve this crisis or our debt crisis. Win or Win.
{^_^}
herself on July 19, 2011 at 5:56 PM
You don’t need carriers there
our subs could negate all their threats
squadron of Virginia class would do it backed up with Los Angeles
china has a long way to go before they could scrap with us
hell, we eff them on their money and become self sufficient again
Sonosam on July 19, 2011 at 6:05 PM
NO, I’m not.
Every thread about China has this sinophile practically cheer-leading for them.
Machiavelli Hobbes on July 19, 2011 at 6:06 PM
Thing is, China can play the same financial brinksmanship game that our politicians are playing. After all, they have own much of our debt right now.
NorthernCross on July 19, 2011 at 6:11 PM
When you owe the bank 100,000
the bank owns you
when you owe the bank 100 s of billions
you own the bank
Sonosam on July 19, 2011 at 6:17 PM
You most likely would need them to go after the hardened naval base on Hainan (I don’t remember seeing anything about GPS munition’s ability to hit those tunnels). Sure the Chinese have a long way to go, but like fighter pilots its the bubbleheads putting their tails on the line and they aren’t looking forward to a confrontation. At least the one’s I’ve talked to.
Buying the technology can only take their People’s Army Navy (kind of weird the way that comes out)so far, it will take them years to gain the experience that other blue water navies have. But that doesn’t mean it will be a walk.
Their Varyag is equivalent to a Forestall without the catapult and their SSBN has yet to go out on patrol, but their small subs have been known to get real close to their intended military targets.
cozmo on July 19, 2011 at 6:23 PM
True.
DarkCurrent on July 19, 2011 at 6:26 PM
slickwillie2001
There is a lot of US encouraged “arming up” Viet Nam being done by Russia, India, Israel and other countries over the last few years.
Note, serving military just about everywhere are bound by a lower security protocol than “secret. In America it is designated “no-foreign.” That means that even if it is headline news in every newspaper in the country, you don’t discuss it with foreigners. So my information comes from Vietnamese News, both English language and Vietnamese language as well as Chinese English language news plus European and lately American news.
I live fairly close to Phan Rang. Lots of training going on and a lot of it doesn’t sound like old Mig-21s. Viet Nam has a lot of new SU-30s with more on order. The new Corvettes and Frigates are starting to arrive with more on order. The Kilo class subs are still a couple of years off but are on order. It takes a while for these things to get built and Viet Nam didn’t take this too seriously until a couple of years ago. Note, you can google and find out all this stuff. If you want to see some really interesting stuff use Google to view the Paracel Islands. China has airsrips all over those islands.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paracel_Islands
Linh_My on July 19, 2011 at 6:31 PM
Remember when the Chinese were pissed that the presidential 767 they were having built was bugged
they only complained for a week since it became obvious how rediculous they looked
get rid of bongo the prez, take the senate and start reducing the governments role in our lives
dep of Ed has got to be a priority and restore the onus to the states
we aren’t done
we have plenty of resources that the chicoms don’t have and could only dream of
just have to reduce the topheavy government we have
Sonosam on July 19, 2011 at 7:43 PM
This is the 1930s all over again. Specifically the Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere This is exactly what Japan was doing in that decade that brought it to attack Pearl Harbor.
keep the change on July 19, 2011 at 9:44 PM
J.E.
Thank you for the information and analysis.
slp on July 20, 2011 at 1:40 AM
Yeah right, this is exactly like Japan invading mainland China. /s
DarkCurrent on July 20, 2011 at 12:18 PM