Gallup finds employment “deterioration” in July

posted at 10:55 am on July 18, 2011 by Ed Morrissey

Gallup’s latest measure of US unemployment shows joblessness rising through the first part of the month, with underemployment remaining at exactly the same level as 2010.  The mid-month survey provides a leading indicator for the official jobless report that will come in the next two and a half weeks, and so far it doesn’t look like it will bring much good news to the White House:

Unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, is at 8.9% in the middle of July — up from 8.7% at the end of June. Unemployment was at 9.3% at this same time a year ago.

The percentage of part-time workers who want full-time work is 9.4% in mid-July — down from 9.6% at the end of June. However, more Americans are working part time but seeking full-time work in mid-July 2011 than was the case in mid-July 2010 (9.0%).

Underemployment, a measure that combines the percentage of unemployed with the percentage working part time but wanting full-time work, is at 18.3% in mid-July — precisely the same as at the end of June and in mid-July 2010.

Gallup reports that this represents “an early July deterioration” in employment, but doesn’t offer much beyond speculation for the cause.  The pollster suggests that employers might be hedging their bets because of the debt negotiations and the uncertainty of whether the US might default, but initial jobless claims jumped in early April before this issue became acute — a dynamic that Gallup’s survey misses entirely, by the way.  The report also posits that a decline in demand might be driving an uptick in unemployment, and for that, there is some new corroboration from the oil markets today:

Oil prices slipped below $97 a barrel on Monday as weakening U.S. consumer confidence and more signs of financial stress in Europe renewed concerns about demand for crude.

By early afternoon in Europe, benchmark oil for August delivery was down 80 cents to $96.44 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Crude rose $1.55 to settle at $97.24 on Friday.

In London, Brent crude fell 52 cents to $116.74 per barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.

Considering the beating that the dollar took last week, the price drop is remarkable.  It seems that the world is bracing for another recession based on the latest economic indicators, perhaps especially the drop in consumer confidence.  It’s not exactly surprising that unemployment would rise as a result.  If Gallup’s results show up in the jobless report for July, it will further hamper Obama’s efforts to stay the course with his economic and regulatory policies.

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“The job market deteriorated unexpectedly and stupidly.”
PBHO

Khun Joe on July 18, 2011 at 10:59 AM

If Gallup’s results show up in the jobless report for July, it will further hamper Obama’s efforts to stay the course with his economic and regulatory policies.

Your optimism is curious.

We’ve seen time and again that the most sensible, obvious and helpful economic policies the government could potentially pursue in a situation like the one we’re in will be off the table as long as Obama is in the White House and the Democrats control any branch of Congress.

The policies of failure currently driving us further into the ditch will be double-down on.

Good Lt on July 18, 2011 at 11:00 AM

…just not as fast as we’d like. Works either way for progs.

Kissmygrits on July 18, 2011 at 11:02 AM

But they keep telling me dear leader is the adult and we need to give his policies a chance
/

cmsinaz on July 18, 2011 at 11:03 AM

If Gallup’s results show up in the jobless report for July, it will further hamper Obama’s efforts to stay the course with his economic and regulatory policies.

Yeah, Obama may have to change his economic approach completely.

/sarc

Doughboy on July 18, 2011 at 11:04 AM

How dumb do you have to be to not see that these economic policies are failing?

honsy on July 18, 2011 at 11:06 AM

“Oh well. Ok boy’s, let’s hit the links!”

-PBHO

Bishop on July 18, 2011 at 11:07 AM

How dumb do you have to be to not see that these economic policies are failing?

honsy on July 18, 2011 at 11:06 AM

However dumb Obama is. That’s how much.

Doughboy on July 18, 2011 at 11:09 AM

It seems that the world is bracing for another recession based on the latest economic indicators, perhaps especially the drop in consumer confidence.

It’s coming. People I know in manufacturing and transportation are seeing the signs first-hand.

tdau1997 on July 18, 2011 at 11:10 AM

If Gallup’s results show up in the jobless report for July, it will further hamper Obama’s efforts to stay the course with his economic and regulatory policies.

This is the Double Down-in-Chief we are talking about, right?

I think it is high time we stop trying to attribute smart political actions to him and start realizing he never learns a damn thing. A year ago most pundits were convinced he would steal the Clinton playbook and go all triangulation on our butts. But again the pundits were wrong. He never takes what might be considered the “smart” political move. Not once. He continues to push massive government intervention in the markets and our lives and he continues to play a silly populist game that attempts to divide the country into the haves and the have nots. And he will keep reading from the same tired script until he leaves office.

At what point do pundits start to learn from their own failed predictions?

NotCoach on July 18, 2011 at 11:11 AM

If we just increase taxes, it would solve all these problems.

Monkeytoe on July 18, 2011 at 11:11 AM

I guess the world’s problems will be blamed on republicans for refusing to allow democrats to spend us to destruction.

GardenGnome on July 18, 2011 at 11:11 AM

What would Putin do?

faraway on July 18, 2011 at 11:12 AM

And the media will spin it as a sign of “recovery”….

SPGuy on July 18, 2011 at 11:14 AM

The pollster suggests that employers might be hedging their bets because of the debt negotiations and the uncertainty of whether the US might default…

This suggestion is stupid and nothing but meme-cramming for Barry the Stain and his flunkies. It may be the potential tax increases on the “rich” part of the negotiations that are making employers squirrelly, though.

CantCureStupid on July 18, 2011 at 11:15 AM

What would Putin do?

faraway

What would Palin do?

honsy on July 18, 2011 at 11:15 AM

Maybe we should follow Moody’s suggestion on the debt ceiling and erase all unemployment by not putting a number to it. At least it would take away the uncertainty of next month’s number.

katablog.com on July 18, 2011 at 11:17 AM

Wait until we have 6% interest rates for 2 year notes. If don’t stop the debt ceiling it will get even worse as hyperinflation takes over.

Oil Can on July 18, 2011 at 11:17 AM

It is becoming increasingly clear to this lifelong Republican (volunteer since Ike’s ’56 reelection campaign) that the Republican Party has outlived its usefulness.

There are millions fiscal conservatives who will never vote Republican (for historical reasons primarily, but it’s real) and millions of current Republicans who are outraged at the failure Republican leadership in the Senate, and to a lesser extent in the House, to hold the line on taxes and government spending.

The House can absolutely prevent an increase in the debt ceiling if the Republican caucus holds together at least a majority of the House.

This debt ceiling debacle is the Obama administratin and the Wall Street bankers crying “Wolf!” again.

We were gulled by them into supporting TARP in 2008. NO MORE!

CatoRenasci on July 18, 2011 at 11:18 AM

And the media will spin it as a sign of “recovery”….

SPGuy on July 18, 2011 at 11:14 AM

Nah, even the drive-bys have given up on that charade. What they’re desperate for now is deflecting blame from Obama and the Dems(and themselves in a sense since they helped put these charlatans in charge). The problem with that is the buck stops with the guy at the top, and that’s the President.

Doughboy on July 18, 2011 at 11:18 AM

…just not as fast as we’d like. Works either way for progs.

Kissmygrits on July 18, 2011 at 11:02 AM

Why is that the Proggies win even when they ‘Obama’ (pardon the dirty language) things up even more?

Chip on July 18, 2011 at 11:18 AM

Thank you President Obama.
 
crr6 on May 1, 2011 at 10:45 PM

rogerb on July 18, 2011 at 11:18 AM

How dumb do you have to be to not see that these economic policies are failing?

honsy on July 18, 2011 at 11:06 AM

Did Failbama actually expect them to work or just desire to use porkulus as a means to buy the next election?

The dems expected the economy to get better on it’s own and hoped to take credit for the recovery. Obviously their spending is going to cause a much nastier crash than we might have had.

Failbama is clueless about teh economy. He wants to tax “the wealthy” until they flee the country and then he and the other socialists can turn the rest of us into slaves of the state, for our own good.

dogsoldier on July 18, 2011 at 11:19 AM

Gallup finds employment “deterioration” in July

Obama’s plan is still working. More people dependent on government. After a while some don’t want to go back to work and will vote democrat to maintain the status quo.

darwin on July 18, 2011 at 11:19 AM

What would Palin do?

honsy on July 18, 2011 at 11:15 AM

It would involve a nightstick, no doubt.

And it would be richly deserved.

turfmann on July 18, 2011 at 11:20 AM

Before I forget, unemployment affects the entire supply chain and economy. As more and more people lose their jobs they spend less and less.

As even more people lose their jobs the numbers approach and cross over a “tipping point” where the impact on the economy escalates and producers cut back more jobs due to less demand, and less and less and less.

Are there any “ghost malls” near where you live? Empty store fronts by the score? Abandoned houses (or houses with squatters?)

Yeah the socialist utopian plan for employment is to tax tax tax until we all lose our jobs and then we can join the slugs they give our wages and profits to.

dogsoldier on July 18, 2011 at 11:25 AM

Unemployment is up.
Posts on Hot Air from trolls are down.

PackerBronco on July 18, 2011 at 11:27 AM

I also remind you that 18.3% does not really state the “under/unemployed” because the unemployed that have fallen of the unemployment rolls aren’t counted.

But again, like the deficit – what’s a number? /s

katablog.com on July 18, 2011 at 11:29 AM

the world is bracing for another recession

Waddya mean “another?” Large parts of this country and this world haven’t recovered from the last one.

rbj on July 18, 2011 at 11:30 AM

Just think of how much worse it would be if the Administration hadn’t flushed a trillion dollars down the toilet on the Stimulus, passed an incomprehensible healthcare law, tightened environmental and banking regulations, ripped off auto company investors, and paid people $5000 apiece to destroy perfectly good used cars.

forest on July 18, 2011 at 11:32 AM

I’m trying to imagine how the MSM is going to even attempt to try and put any type of “the future’s so bright, we gotta wear shades!” spin on this less than cheery news.

pilamaye on July 18, 2011 at 11:33 AM

Maybe we should follow Moody’s suggestion on the debt ceiling and erase all unemployment by not putting a number to it. At least it would take away the uncertainty of next month’s number.

katablog.com on July 18, 2011 at 11:17 AM

Thats a double-plus good idea.

And speaking of 1984, you know if we just shredded and destroyed all those “old” reports, this weeks number would be “gooder”.

My friend once told me our problem (as Conservatives) is that we have a memory. Libs never learn because they have the memory of a Dog (about 1.3 minutes).

orbitalair on July 18, 2011 at 11:37 AM

Let’s get this straight right now! ‘Unemployment’ is a racist codeword for ‘incompetent black president’ and henceforth will be referred to as the ‘U-Word’ and always in hushed tones and never in polite company.

MaiDee on July 18, 2011 at 11:42 AM

Gallup didn’t find anything the government didn’t already know… if they were going to be honest about it.

http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300000

Employment-Population ratio (percentage of Americans with a job) just posted a tie for the lowest number in the past 25+ years. You have to go back to July 1983 to find a lower one.

When you’ve got the worst employed % of the population in over 25 years; yeah I’d call that employment “deterioration”.

That’s why I watch the employment % not the unemployment %; they’d have to work harder to fake it, and they’re not willing to put forth that much effort for their lies yet.

gekkobear on July 18, 2011 at 11:44 AM

Question:
How much campaign cash will offset Scooter’s lousy track record in 2012? Is there some amount which will re-elect him regardless of his blundering record?

a capella on July 18, 2011 at 11:46 AM

it will further hamper Obama’s efforts to stay the course with his economic and regulatory policies

No it won’t. Barry’s only got one play book. And “The Smartest Man in the World” is too damned stupid to know that his policies aren’t working.

GarandFan on July 18, 2011 at 11:53 AM

I just had to lay off 4 temps Thursday… Hoping it’s a short term slowdown, but for now it’s indefinitely…
-

RalphyBoy on July 18, 2011 at 11:54 AM

CatoRenasci on July 18, 2011 at 11:18 AM

I agree with your sentiments entirely. However, I would be satisfied this time with a short, 6-8 month type debt ceiling increase, with dollar per dollar real spending reductions to be realized before September 2012, with no tax increase. Pass that in the house, send it to the senate where, if we had Republican solidarity it would pass or be blamed on the senate democrats if it failed. If it passed it would go to Obama, which would be a lose-lose for him, but a win for America if it he signed it. If he did not sign it whatever negative result followed would be a result of his choice.

GaltBlvnAtty on July 18, 2011 at 11:56 AM

The policies of failure currently driving us further into the ditch over the cliff will be double-down on.

Good Lt on July 18, 2011 at 11:00 AM

.
Not to put too fine a point on your original assertion, the policies that Ø’Bama & Cabal are pursuing are exactly designed to cause a crisis and then manage that crisis with more debt and tax increases. So, since The Regime is not squandering a crisis in this instance you are exactly right, it’s double down from now on.
.
It’s just that on the Gear Control Indicator, R is for Reverse course and D is for Drive forward, through the ditch into the shoulder barrier near the cliff and thence over the cliff into economic disaster.
.
Let’s hope the (R)’s have not been getting brain freezes from their slurpees.

ExpressoBold on July 18, 2011 at 11:57 AM

Question:
How much campaign cash will offset Scooter’s lousy track record in 2012? Is there some amount which will re-elect him regardless of his blundering record?

a capella on July 18, 2011 at 11:46 AM

That’s a depressing question considering that there is no doubt the NSM will plunge to new lows in their ceaseless propaganda effort to re-elect their dear leader.

Chip on July 18, 2011 at 11:58 AM

“It seems that the world is bracing for another recession based on the latest economic indicators…”

But Wall Street is booming, thanks to a huge infusion of Obama bailout cash.

And his union accomplices are happy, thanks to Obamacare waivers and massive pork legislation.

And govt. employment is healthy, at pay levels which far outpace the private sector, thanks to record federal deficits.

I’d say Obama’s ‘Cloward-Piven’ re-election strategy is right on target.

locomotivebreath1901 on July 18, 2011 at 12:00 PM

How dumb do you have to be to not see that these economic policies are failing?

honsy on July 18, 2011 at 11:06 AM

Who’s more likely to vote for little Bammie, an unemployed person or someone with a decent job? Does he put his reelection prospects over the national economy?

slickwillie2001 on July 18, 2011 at 12:05 PM

The sad truth is even a brainwashed leftwing lemming with a single digit IQ knows that Obama is unfit to lead our economy. The lies and deceptions from him and his administration are so obvious that the said lemmings are even embarrassed.

volsense on July 18, 2011 at 1:56 PM

Please tell me why the media insists that the unemployment is just over 9%. So who’s lying here?

mixplix on July 18, 2011 at 4:12 PM

It’s all these bumps in the road like sun up anddd annnnd sun down!
And stop lights.
Stop lights, yeah that’s the ticket! Stop lights cause a loss in productivity that no administration has ever had to deal with!

Update:
George Stephanopoulos ABC reports no President has ever had to deal with a perfect storm like this! Sun up, Sun down and traffic lights! Can one person really govern the country?

Paul Krugman NYT, It’s a perfect trifecta Sun up, Stop lights, Sun Down, it’s a good thing we have Obama to shepherd us through these impossible times.

Lawrence O’Donnell MSNBC, Evil Republicans are controlling Sun Down, traffic lights and Sun Up for there corporate masters lead by the witch Palin!

DSchoen on July 18, 2011 at 7:08 PM