CBS poll with D+11 sample oddly disfavors GOP

posted at 11:35 am on July 18, 2011 by Ed Morrissey

Have Democrats leaped to an eleven-point registration advantage in the last five weeks?  In early June, a CBS News poll showed a D/R/I sample of 30/30/40, which undersampled both parties slightly in favor of independents, even weighting it to slightly favor Republicans. In their latest poll today on the debt ceiling debate, CBS offers one of its most egregious poll samples in recent memory to pursue the “public blames the GOP” meme:

Americans are unimpressed with their political leaders’ handling of the debt ceiling crisis, with a new CBS News poll showing a majority disapprove of all the involved parties’ conduct, but Republicans in Congress fare the worst, with just 21 percent backing their resistance to raising taxes.

President Obama earned the most generous approval ratings for his handling of the weeks-old negotiations, but still more people said they disapproved (48 percent) than approved (43 percent) of what he has done and said. …

Approval drops to 31 percent for the Democrats in Congress, and only 21 percent of the people surveyed said they approved of Republicans’ handling of the negotiations, while 71 percent disapprove.

Gee, a 10-point difference, huh?  What a coincidence!  Let’s take a look at the sample:

 

 

Party Raw Weighted
Dem 272 33.6% 282 34.8%
GOP 214 26.4% 193 23.8%
Ind 324 40.0% 335 41.4%
810 810

 

 

Note that the original survey had a seven-point advantage for Democrats, which would be equal to the difference in the 2008 presidential election’s national popular vote. CBS then weighted the survey to give an even further advantage to Democrats, mainly by lopping off almost three points and splitting it evenly between Democrats and independents.  That leaves Republicans with less than 24% representation in a poll that’s supposed to measure national political sentiment.

In fact, the remainder left to the GOP ensures that no reliable conclusions can be made about Republican sentiment, either.  A poll of 193 adults — not registered or likely voters — is too small a sample for reliable conclusions about national political currents.  This poll is a complete waste of time, and about the only conclusion one can reach is that CBS tried very hard to get a sample that would support its preconceived notions of the debate.

Update: Guy Benson finds a little fabulism in the CBS report, too, emphasis his:

“Americans are unimpressed with their political leaders’ handling of the debt ceiling crisis, with a new CBS News poll showing a majority disapprove of all the involved parties’ conduct, but Republicans in Congress fare the worst, with just 21 percent backing their resistance to raising taxes.”

There is absolutely zero statistical evidence supporting this claim, yet it’s enshrined in CBS’ opening graf.  Yes, only 21 percent of the public (based on the skewed sample — see points 1 and 2) approve of Congressional Republicans’ handling of the debt negotiations, but the poll itself does not mention the word “taxes” — or even the more Democrat-friendly term, “revenues.”  As established in point three above, CBS’ poll doesn’t ask why Americans disapprove of the GOP’s approach to this issue.  And yet, this fact didn’t stop CBS from simply inventing and assigning a reason — which conveniently aligns with the Democrat-media complex’s established meme: These damned intransigent Republican wingnuts are nihilistic extremists!

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More CBS BS

Wade on July 18, 2011 at 11:38 AM

30/30/40? I was always told the D/R/I split was 40/40/20. Those “scientific” pollsters must know something I don’t. -.-

gryphon202 on July 18, 2011 at 11:40 AM

Hey, look over there! A Murdoch!

a capella on July 18, 2011 at 11:41 AM

Consider the source.

‘Nuff said.

pilamaye on July 18, 2011 at 11:43 AM

CBS = Clearly Bovine Scatology

Khun Joe on July 18, 2011 at 11:43 AM

This poll is why I don’t believe in polls.
L

letget on July 18, 2011 at 11:43 AM

I can hear the CBS pollroom now: Does +9% more democrats skew the poll in our favor? No, OK let’s take it to 10. That doesn’t do it? OK let’s take it to 11. Why should anyone believe anything that comes out of CBS?

Christian Conservative on July 18, 2011 at 11:44 AM

Note that the original survey had a seven-point advantage for Democrats, which would be equal to the difference in the 2008 presidential election’s national popular vote. CBS then weighted the survey to give an even further advantage to Democrats, mainly by lopping off almost three points and splitting it evenly between Democrats and independents. That leaves Republicans with less than 24% representation in a poll that’s supposed to measure national political sentiment.

In fact, the remainder left to the GOP ensures that no reliable conclusions can be made about Republican sentiment, either. A poll of 193 adults — not registered or likely voters — is too small a sample for reliable conclusions about national political currents. This poll is a complete waste of time…

All of that is very, very true, accurate, but what CBS/Journolisters/Obama/DNC is looking for his HYPE OF PROPAGANDA.

The poll “results” are propaganda and most of us are familiar with what the Left does with that.

Jounrolist-or-Journolist-Offshoots are alive and well and in full operation. As I wrote yesterday, the wire services are in full-on Leftwing Propaganda Mode with the “Democrats/Obama represent working families” and the Republicans are the “big corporations” and the “rich”, implying they’re guilty of everything imaginable.

Lourdes on July 18, 2011 at 11:45 AM

“bout the only conclusion one can reach is that CBS tried very hard to get a sample that would support its preconceived notions of the debate.”

The next question you should be asking Ed is…why?

Alinsky on July 18, 2011 at 11:47 AM

Of course… in the poll of those who think that Barry should be impeached… the Dumb One gets less than 1% for job approval.
-

RalphyBoy on July 18, 2011 at 11:49 AM

crr6 and bayam will be along shortly to use this as evidence for their nutbaggery any moment now.

Midas on July 18, 2011 at 11:49 AM

Nothing like cooking the numbers to get the desired result. And then they stand there with a stupid look on their faces wondering why they have no credibility with the public.

GarandFan on July 18, 2011 at 11:50 AM

Obviously if you even out the sample the majority on this would still favor disapproval of the GOP’s action. Nothing else new there.

Monkei on July 18, 2011 at 11:50 AM

Pffft. One more hour and I’ll be cracking open a Pacifico and toasting the stupidity of these leftist, boot licking, media trash.

Bishop on July 18, 2011 at 11:50 AM

the only conclusion one can reach is that CBS tried very hard to get a sample that would support its preconceived notions of the debate.

Or was CBS trying to influence the outcome of that debate, by making Republican Congresspersons believe that the public opposes their efforts?

AZCoyote on July 18, 2011 at 11:52 AM

CBS poll with D+11 sample oddly disfavors GOP

Nigel Tufnel was unavailable for comment…

Midas on July 18, 2011 at 11:53 AM

As for +11 getting us to 71%, remember boys and girls — conservatives aren’t much happier than leftists with the way the GOP is handling this.

Jaibones on July 18, 2011 at 11:53 AM

And let’s not forget that “How the question is worded” makes all the difference in how the question is answered….

TeresainFortWorth on July 18, 2011 at 11:56 AM

Anything for dear leader

All hail Obama!

cmsinaz on July 18, 2011 at 11:57 AM

Oh… my mind is changed! :)

golfmann on July 18, 2011 at 11:58 AM

Ya think they would of learned something from Pravda.

roflmao

donabernathy on July 18, 2011 at 11:58 AM

Oh goody, more meme-cramming. Wouldn’t it be neat if “news” organizations actually cared about the truth, instead of mindlessly pimping for the Left?

Consummate Barry Shills

CantCureStupid on July 18, 2011 at 11:58 AM

We are a center right country, which doesn’t come close to this poll’s sample, or most others either.

How many ways can you come up with to get a poll to come out the way you want it?

dogsoldier on July 18, 2011 at 11:59 AM

Push pulling is pushing!

Good Lt on July 18, 2011 at 11:59 AM

Push pulling is pushing!

Good Lt on July 18, 2011 at 11:59 AM

*Polling

LOL “Push pulling.”

Good Lt on July 18, 2011 at 12:00 PM

CBS = Clearly Bovine Scatology

Khun Joe on July 18, 2011 at 11:43 AM

.
This is better than See-BS! Consider it “appropriated for general use!” Thanks!

ExpressoBold on July 18, 2011 at 12:01 PM

They still couldn’t find the 80% to support Obie’s lie that we want more taxes to solve the deficit/debt.

AH_C on July 18, 2011 at 12:05 PM

See B.S.

OhioCoastie on July 18, 2011 at 12:05 PM

write the policy, then find the support…I can find a favorable survey for most anything.

right2bright on July 18, 2011 at 12:05 PM

And let’s not forget that “How the question is worded” makes all the difference in how the question is answered….

TeresainFortWorth on July 18, 2011 at 11:56 AM

Do you believe that our wondrous dear leader should have Shared his time with those evil grandma-killing Republicans or was it too much of a Sacrifice?

Chip on July 18, 2011 at 12:08 PM

Do you believe that our wondrous dear leader should have Shared his time with those evil grandma-killing Republicans or was it too much of a Sacrifice?

Note: I wrote it that way because I didn’t want Clearly Barack Scatology to steal it.

Chip on July 18, 2011 at 12:12 PM

Obviously if you even out the sample the majority on this would still favor disapproval of the Democrats’ action. Nothing else new there.

Monkei on July 18, 2011 at 11:50 AM

Fixed.

Del Dolemonte on July 18, 2011 at 12:12 PM

Maybe CBS is deceptive, but Jerry Brown, (and his liberal legislature), gets the biggest prize for moving numbers around and making 12 billion dollars disappear into thin air.

Rovin on July 18, 2011 at 12:13 PM

Good gravy! Is it any wonder the networks are mistrusted?

csdeven on July 18, 2011 at 12:15 PM

Tommorrow CBS will report fully 81% support Dick With Ears.

The headline:

“Obama under-estimates support for higher taxes”

BobMbx on July 18, 2011 at 12:16 PM

Good gravy! Is it any wonder the networks are mistrusted?

csdeven on July 18, 2011 at 12:15 PM

That won’t stop the poll-o-philes from running with this as an example of why we’re doomed and we should all just give up.

gryphon202 on July 18, 2011 at 12:25 PM

CBS, where Katie Couric has the most gravitas

faraway on July 18, 2011 at 12:25 PM

As most sciences become more sophisticated, they become better. Polling is just the opposite: the client simply tells the pollster the result it wants. The pollster selects the sampling and words the question in the way that will provide the result the client wants. If that doesn’t work, weighting is a last resort.

“Journalists” and pollsters make prostitutes look ethical.

bw222 on July 18, 2011 at 12:26 PM

You lost my grandparents and that is a very bad sign.

fastestslug on July 18, 2011 at 1:12 PM

Ed – this is the type of poll AP lives for. You ruined his day. Tell him not to worry, tomorrow there will be another one he can promote as important and truthful.

Fuquay Steve on July 18, 2011 at 1:58 PM

The lsm OS quoting this poll as gospel

Cripe

cmsinaz on July 18, 2011 at 2:00 PM

Promote this.

Schadenfreude on July 18, 2011 at 2:12 PM

CBS lost it’s integrity a long time ago. Nothing has changed just because Katie is gone. The same goes for NBC, CBS, MSNBC, and many assorted newspapers and magazines around the country.

What I don’t get is…why do people continue to watch and or purchase these rags? You like throwing money at people who are more than willing to lie to you?

capejasmine on July 18, 2011 at 2:29 PM

This has to be a concoction to support Obama’s claim that 80% of the public want taxes to be increased.

If Obama claims that 80% of the public want to cut defense spending, will CBS use a 60% democrat sample? If Obama claims that 80% of the public is demanding that Fox News and the Wall Street Journal be shut down over the Phone Hacking scandal, will CBS get a poll with 100% democrats in order to support that claim too?

KW64 on July 18, 2011 at 3:34 PM

Here’s another of little Bammie’s many lies deconstructed: Another Obama Lie Exposed: 85% of Bush Tax Cuts Went to Middle Class, Not the Rich

slickwillie2001 on July 18, 2011 at 4:19 PM

I guess this massive lie is how Obama got his 80% figure.

CBS is NOT a serious source of news. But we all knew that.

{^_^}

herself on July 18, 2011 at 5:31 PM

Another rigged CBS poll. *yawn*

WannabeAnglican on July 18, 2011 at 7:38 PM

Democrats must be cracking open the champagne!

MrX on July 18, 2011 at 9:55 PM