Oh my: Generic Republican 47, Obama 39

posted at 7:29 pm on July 14, 2011 by Allahpundit

That last jobs report was awfully bad.

Gallup typically uses this question format when a president is seeking re-election but his likely opponent is unknown, as was the case in 1991-1992 and 2003-2004, when incumbents George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush, respectively, were seeking re-election.

The elder Bush held large leads over his generic Democratic opponent throughout 1991, but early 1992 preferences were more evenly divided and Bush eventually lost his re-election bid. The younger Bush also consistently maintained at least a small advantage over the Democrat throughout 2003, before winning re-election in a close contest in November 2004…

Both Bushes had higher job approval ratings in the year before their re-election contests than Obama does now, helping explain why Obama has fared less well on the generic ballot in the year prior to the election year. George H.W. Bush’s approval rating in July 1991 averaged 71%, while George W. Bush’s July 2003 average was 60%. Obama’s latest weekly average is 46%.

Two months ago, after his Bin Laden bounce, O led 43/40. In June he dipped and trailed by five points, and today the lead is eight overall and 10 among independents. As the economy lurches, The One slides. I know this morning’s Quinnipiac poll said 54 percent still blame Bush for the recession compared to 27 percent who blame Obama, but that isn’t necessarily inconsistent with what you’re seeing here. Bush got us into this mess, the public believes — and Obama isn’t getting us out. Hard to see these numbers changing much unless/until things turn around. As for the Bush precedents, you can read them in one of two ways. The Democratic “keep hope alive” read: Incumbents are tough to beat unless the economy’s fading, which, hey, it might not be by spring of next year. That’s why Bush 41 lost a giant lead and why Dubya, buoyed by his early war-on-terror decisions, stayed afloat. The Republican “it’s our election to lose” read: Both Bushes were comfortably ahead of their generic opponent throughout most of the year preceding their reelection year. At no point did either trail; to borrow a favorite White House term, The One’s showing here is comparatively unprecedented. Maybe that doesn’t mean squat given that Reagan trailed Mondale by nine in June 1983 before destroying him a year later after the economy rebounded, but Mondale was an obvious Democratic frontrunner at the time so the question wasn’t a pure referendum on the president. Today’s question is. Does that makes Obama’s deficit more or less significant, given that Mondale was a known commodity whereas O hasn’t had a chance to define his opponent yet?

The bad news for America generally and Democratic strategists in particular is that, even according to Peter Orszag, it’s going to be a long time before we see light at the end of this economic tunnel. The good news for Democrats? I’ll let Krauthammer explain. Dirtiest campaign evah. Click the image to watch.

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So don’t blow it by passing a crappy debt ceiling deal

gophergirl on July 14, 2011 at 7:30 PM

I am not surprised overall. What is surprising is that this all happened DURING the debt ceiling debate, which makes me wonder what America is actually thinking, despite other polls saying otherwise. Do they think Obama is a failed leader, no matter what the debt ceiling deal ends up to be?

neoavatara on July 14, 2011 at 7:30 PM

CK is right..That is all team Obie has left in the tank..Go negative..:)

Dire Straits on July 14, 2011 at 7:32 PM

Rest assured he’ll incite violence. Mark my words.

SouthernGent on July 14, 2011 at 7:32 PM

This is a poll all HotAir folks can unify behind.

Kumbaya…

portlandon on July 14, 2011 at 7:33 PM

Fast forward 6-9 months, you think things will look better??
Uh, no.

As someone said, Sarah Bernhard could beat Obama if this keeps up.

B Man on July 14, 2011 at 7:34 PM

I need some lye soap, chlorine and limestone. STAT!

upinak on July 14, 2011 at 7:34 PM

Dire Straits on July 14, 2011 at 7:32 PM

yepper and the lsm will be giddy bashing the gop candidate

cmsinaz on July 14, 2011 at 7:34 PM

CK is right..That is all team Obie has left in the tank..Go negative..:)

Dire Straits on July 14, 2011 at 7:32 PM

And CK has been wrong… many times, but no one ever says anything.

Becareful what CK says about Obama. He has a little man crush on him still.

upinak on July 14, 2011 at 7:35 PM

have to call it an early night folks…y’all be good and will catch you on the flip side…

cmsinaz on July 14, 2011 at 7:36 PM

I guess I was wrong on the other thread when I said 40+% would vote for BHO. I apologize.

VikingGoneWild on July 14, 2011 at 7:37 PM

Has anybody interviewed Generic Republican?

ElectricPhase on July 14, 2011 at 7:37 PM

How long before Allahpundit legally changes his name to win the presidency from the shadows?

theperfecteconomist on July 14, 2011 at 7:38 PM

The man child is letting his hair go gray to make it look like he’s working hard or mature or something. It’ll be hard for bo to beat anybody by Nov.

tim c on July 14, 2011 at 7:39 PM

All polls at this stage are unreliable due to the economic unknowns and the GOP primary unknowns.

However, obviously I’d rather have the generic Repub ahead than behind.

Missy on July 14, 2011 at 7:40 PM

Bush got us into this mess, the public believes — and Obama isn’t getting us out.

Should read “Liberalism got us into this mess,” but at least they’re blaming Obama for not getting us out of the longest-lasting economic downturn since the 1930s.

itsnotaboutme on July 14, 2011 at 7:41 PM

upinak on July 14, 2011 at 7:35 PM

CK has been wrong in the past..But I do not think CK has a man crush on Obie..:)

Dire Straits on July 14, 2011 at 7:41 PM

cmsinaz on July 14, 2011 at 7:36 PM

Nite buddy! Sleep well!

sicoit on July 14, 2011 at 7:42 PM

. The good news for Democrats? I’ll let Krauthammer explain. Dirtiest campaign evah. Click the image to watch.

All of the dirt will come from the Democrats and the MSM will pretend both sides are at fault…well, they’ll pretend the Republicans started it and the Democrats were just defending themselves…and a pox on both their houses…but mostly the Republicans for their dirty campaigning. I expect to see lot’s of ‘ugly national mood’ pieces that basically explain that opposition to Obama’s policies is ‘ugly’.

AUINSC on July 14, 2011 at 7:42 PM

ANYONE BUT OBAMA!

GarandFan on July 14, 2011 at 7:42 PM

cmsinaz on July 14, 2011 at 7:36 PM

Enjoyed it..Later Friend!..:)

Dire Straits on July 14, 2011 at 7:42 PM

Great news. Now if we can just get away with putting a Generic Republican on the ballot, and call it “a player to be named later” everything will be peachy.

Rovin on July 14, 2011 at 7:42 PM

That’s the only way the dems campaign; go dirty. Its always the politics of personal destruction. They can’t debate the issues because they lose on that. That leaves them to go negative.

Mirimichi on July 14, 2011 at 7:43 PM

The only poll that means a thing will be conducted on November 6, 2012.

malclave on July 14, 2011 at 7:43 PM

Who is this Generic Republican guy? What are his (her) positions?

trigon on July 14, 2011 at 7:43 PM

This is a poll all HotAir folks can unify behind.

Kumbaya…

portlandon on July 14, 2011 at 7:33 PM

Poll dancer reporting for duty.

Knucklehead on July 14, 2011 at 7:44 PM

Not just a terribly negative Democrat campaign, a terribly fraudulent Democrat vote and campaign as well.

Speakup on July 14, 2011 at 7:44 PM

Now if we can just get away with putting a Generic Republican on the ballot, and call it “a player to be named later” everything will be peachy.

Rovin on July 14, 2011 at 7:42 PM

To paraphrase Nancy Pelosi… you have to elect our candidate to see who it is?

malclave on July 14, 2011 at 7:44 PM

Incumbents are tough to beat unless the economy’s fading, which, hey, it might not be by spring of next year.

Yeah, it’s gonna “improve”. After all, “the recession” has been over for almost 2 years now. Right?

And the economy will be run on rainbow-colored, carbon-free unicorn farts, generating vast amounts of electricity 24/7.

GarandFan on July 14, 2011 at 7:46 PM

trigon on July 14, 2011 at 7:43 PM

You have to vote for him to find out who it is.

lynncgb on July 14, 2011 at 7:47 PM

Bear this poll in mind the next time you’re subject to a PPP or a Quinnepiac.

This man is on a downward trajectory. Anyone who says that’s not true, is a liar.

Now: Obama. Send us your fundraising numbers. You might not want to, but we’re going to get them anyway you farking fraud.

Key West Reader on July 14, 2011 at 7:50 PM

Valerie Jarrett: “QUICK! WAKE THE DEAD!”

Heh.

Key West Reader on July 14, 2011 at 7:52 PM

I can see the debates, now. The finger to his cheek scratching himself. You know what I’m talking about.

Mirimichi on July 14, 2011 at 7:52 PM

It’s going to be almost a billion dollars of sheer attacks because it’s essentially a referendum on Obama. Unless the Democrats can make the personality or the baggage or the history of the Republican the issue

Which is why we don’t need Bachmann’s or Palin’s baggage.
I hope we pick a safe, vanilla conservative candidate. Because we don’t need charisma if Obama’s down 47 to 39 already.

itsnotaboutme on July 14, 2011 at 7:54 PM

NBC will probably rush a poll showing Obama way ahead just to provide cover.

theperfecteconomist on July 14, 2011 at 7:54 PM

Delicious. More, please…

OmahaConservative on July 14, 2011 at 7:55 PM

Oh my: Generic Republican 47, Obama 39

Advantage: T-Paw!

calbear on July 14, 2011 at 7:55 PM

Who is this Generic Republican guy? What are his (her) positions?

trigon on July 14, 2011 at 7:43 PM

Take every position of Obama and they have the exact opposite in every detail.

tjexcite on July 14, 2011 at 8:00 PM

Key strategy will be:

1 Most presidents get re-elected
2 If Obama is not re-elected, there has to be a REASON
3 The REASON is RACISM (Forget about the economy, four wars and lost power and prestige in the world)
4 To avoid being considered RACISTS, many cowardly whites (but hopefully not McConnell) will vote for Obama out of past slavery “guilt”.

You wait and see-if all else fails this WILL be the campaign trump card.

MaiDee on July 14, 2011 at 8:02 PM

It’s all happening. Ahead of schedule…or behind schedule…or right on time?

RDE2010 on July 14, 2011 at 8:02 PM

MaiDee on July 14, 2011 at 8:02 PM

My libtard college prof brother tells me all the time that if 0bama isn’t reelected it will be because of inherent racism…

OmahaConservative on July 14, 2011 at 8:05 PM

Having no clear frontrunner going into the GOP convention could mean Obama has to runs ads smearing all of them. People will get very sick of that. Here’s hoping that Palin, Bachmann, and Cain all stay in to the very end hoping for a brokered convention so that all that Soros money is spent on wall to wall sexist, racist ads.

pedestrian on July 14, 2011 at 8:08 PM

Ha Ha ….now that is change I can believe in.

MJZZZ on July 14, 2011 at 8:24 PM

Rest assured he’ll incite violence. Mark my words.

SouthernGent on July 14, 2011 at 7:32 PM

He certainly can and he will if he thinks it will help him win. He has threatened it in the past.

slickwillie2001 on July 14, 2011 at 9:23 PM

Which is why we don’t need Bachmann’s or Palin’s baggage.
I hope we pick a safe, vanilla conservative candidate. Because we don’t need charisma if Obama’s down 47 to 39 already.

itsnotaboutme on July 14, 2011 at 7:54 PM

There’s no safe candidate except perhaps the one that the liberal old media chooses, perhaps Huntsman, and we’re not that desperate. No matter who we choose, they will find baggage, even if they have to just make crap up. They do it all the time.

slickwillie2001 on July 14, 2011 at 9:25 PM

There’s no safe candidate except perhaps the one that the liberal old media chooses, perhaps Huntsman, and we’re not that desperate. No matter who we choose, they will find baggage, even if they have to just make crap up. They do it all the time.

Advantage Palin… the MSM has already given her a full-body search of every orifice, including those of her family and friends, and found nothing…

If they come up with something new, it’ll be obvious to everyone that they’re making more shit up… and you can rest assured she’ll call them on it.

OnlyOrange on July 14, 2011 at 9:49 PM

Less tham 16 months until the BIG CHANGE at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue gets voted on…

Khun Joe on July 14, 2011 at 10:17 PM

If they come up with something new, it’ll be obvious to everyone that they’re making more shit up… and you can rest assured she’ll call them on it.

OnlyOrange

It hasn’t been obvious to everyone so far. That’s why her numbers suck.

xblade on July 14, 2011 at 10:23 PM

This is straight-up hatin’ on a black man in the White House.

greggriffith on July 14, 2011 at 10:37 PM

If Generic Republican wins the nomination then we’re in good shape. But what if somebody else wins?

Really Right on July 14, 2011 at 11:16 PM

Well, it didn’t take the NY Times long to start going after Perry in this article today:

Taking a Look at the Governor, Back When He Was a Democrat

“Gov. Rick Perry, a no-apologies conservative known for slashing government spending and opposing all tax increases, is about as Republican as you can get.

But that was not always the case.

Mr. Perry spent his first six years in politics as a Democrat, in a somewhat forgotten history that is sure to be revived and scrutinized by Republican opponents if he decides to run for president.”

Article here:

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/15/us/15ttperry.html?_r=1&hp

SheetAnchor on July 15, 2011 at 12:00 AM

Who is this Generic Republican guy? What are his (her) positions?

trigon on July 14, 2011 at 7:43 PM

..um, that’s why he/she is kicking the crap out of Obama. If people *knew* the positions of “T.G.R.” they might be less likely to vote for him or her. As it is, this just coalesces people around The Chicago Jesus’s negatives while imbuing T.G.R. with all of the good qualities they want to see in a candidate.

In a way, it’s a little like The Bamster back in 2007 — largely unknown, an avatar for people’s hopes and dreams.

Boy, did that turn into a nightmare quickly.

The War Planner on July 15, 2011 at 3:18 AM

“Mr. Perry spent his first six years in politics as a Democrat, in a somewhat forgotten history that is sure to be revived and scrutinized by Republican opponents if he decides to run for president.”

Yeah, and Reagan started out as a Democrat, but he also gained wisdom and became a Conservative Republican.

The elder Bush held large leads over his generic Democratic opponent throughout 1991, but early 1992 preferences were more evenly divided and Bush eventually lost his re-election bid…..

George H.W. Bush’s approval rating in July 1991 averaged 71%.”

As to this part of the story, please don’t forget that George H. W. Bush never would have lost his re-election bid if it had not been for H. Ross Perot. Clinton pulled only 43% of the vote in that election. Bush didn’t lose because of the economy, he lost because the third party candidate (who pulled 19% of the vote) took away votes from him.

Far right – Perot – - – Bush – Center – - Clinton – - Far Left

Most of the country voted for a right of center candidate. They didn’t want the left of center candidate. In fact, Clinton wouldn’t win even 50% of the vote in 1996 either.

Please remember that when noting Bush’s loss after such approval numbers. Clinton didn’t beat him. Clinton had to play the saxophone on the Arsenio Hall show (!!!) just to stay in the news at all. The debate was between Bush (who was a moderate Republican) and Perot (the really fiscal conservative). Clinton simply got lucky that they divided the vote and the Presidency landed into his lap.

Theophile on July 15, 2011 at 5:53 AM

Whoops, I forgot an end quote in that one right after the “George H.W. Bush’s approval rating in July 1991 averaged 71%.”

Please read it as such.

Theophile on July 15, 2011 at 5:54 AM