Iowa poll: Bachmann by … 13?

posted at 9:03 pm on July 13, 2011 by Allahpundit

Serious question: Now that Romney has all but abandoned the state, why aren’t his supporters shifting to Pawlenty? Core Romney fans will stick with their guy, of course, if for no other reason than to deny votes to a candidate like T-Paw who poses a potential long-term threat. But what about all the Iowans who aren’t devoted Mittheads but simply prefer his more moderate managerial cred to Bachmann’s fire and brimstone? Why not get behind the only other candidate who’s (a) seriously contesting Iowa and (b) got the potential to go all the way? Mystifying.

Regardless, clock’s a-tickin’, Tim.

A new poll of likely caucus goers in Iowa by the Republican-leaning Magellan Strategies shows Bachmann with 29% of the vote. Next place finisher Mitt Romney has 16%. The Magellan field did not include Jon Huntsman, who is skipping Iowa, or the (so far) non-running Sarah Palin, Rudy Giuliani or Rick Perry…

Bachmann’s winning big with men (she’s up 18% over Romney in the Magellan crosstabs), women (9%), seniors (10%), social conservatives (22%), fiscal conservatives (17%) and tea partiers (33%). Three percent in the Magellan survey said “other” and 24% said undecided. More women are undecided (30%) than support Bachmann (24%) and it’s the same story with seniors (27% undecided, 26% support Bachmann.)

Pawlenty finishes with eight percent, tied with Herman Cain. But maybe you’re thinking this is an outlier? Okay: Here’s a new Iowa poll from Mason/Dixon also showing Bachmann ahead — 32/29 over Romney this time, with Pawlenty in third at, um, seven percent. At the rate she’s going here, I’m expecting T-Paw’s talking points to shift within the week from “We need to do well at Ames” to “Eh, Ames doesn’t always predict the caucus winner anyway.” Help him, Rick Perry, you’re his only vote-splitting hope!

Here’s his new vid touting his evangelical bona fides for the benefit of caucus-goers. It was circulated via blast e-mail from his newest campaign advisor: Sarah Huckabee, daughter of you-know-who.

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You-know-ho?

Um…

Rational Thought on July 13, 2011 at 9:06 PM

You-know-ho?

Um…

Rational Thought on July 13, 2011 at 9:06 PM

ROFL…

ddrintn on July 13, 2011 at 9:07 PM

Bachmann with 29% of the vote

Pawlenty finishes with 8%

Backbone 29%, Squish 8%.

Emperor Norton on July 13, 2011 at 9:08 PM

Pitting Tim against Øbama is like pitting a mouse against a snake. Mouse dies. No contest.

petefrt on July 13, 2011 at 9:08 PM

Help him, Rick Perry, you’re his only vote-splitting hope!

Halp us, Rik Pary…

ddrintn on July 13, 2011 at 9:10 PM

Backbone 29%, Squish 8%.

Emperor Norton on July 13, 2011 at 9:08 PM

So why is Romney still doing so well? I’d take T-Paw over Mitt any day.

ddrintn on July 13, 2011 at 9:11 PM

Sorry, I can’t vote for him. He’s a war hawk.

Frank T.J Mackey on July 13, 2011 at 9:14 PM

: Now that Romney has all but abandoned the state, why aren’t his supporters shifting to Pawlenty?

Do you really have to ask? He’s dull, he panders, he looks weak, he acts weak, he has no fire and he blew it on ObamneyCare.

And that’s just for starters.

Knucklehead on July 13, 2011 at 9:15 PM

It’s not good when you have basically the same haircut as your wife, just shorter. That’s a sign.

Bishop on July 13, 2011 at 9:16 PM

I like Pawlenty, but Republicans don’t usually go for beta males. That’s the Democrats game. heh.

therightwinger on July 13, 2011 at 9:17 PM

Sorry, I can’t vote for him. He’s a war hawk.

Frank T.J Mackey on July 13, 2011 at 9:14 PM

Obama’s not even a Republican silly.

CW on July 13, 2011 at 9:19 PM

Sex Appeal.

vcferlita on July 13, 2011 at 9:20 PM

Men flocking to Bachmann. lol

They vote with their penis’s.

She only gets 9% of the catty women.

Hilarious.

rickyricardo on July 13, 2011 at 9:21 PM

Men voting for Bachmann with their members.

Women, catty again, not so much for the attractive Bachmann.

rickyricardo on July 13, 2011 at 9:22 PM

I don’t get why candidates skip Iowa. Has it ever worked?

SoulGlo on July 13, 2011 at 9:23 PM

I predict a Romney/Jindal ticket.

therightwinger on July 13, 2011 at 9:24 PM

Palin will make her decision in aug/sept

carry on

unseen on July 13, 2011 at 9:24 PM

If Sarah Palin were in this race, things would be a lot different.

Bachmann would only be ahead by 8.

YYZ on July 13, 2011 at 9:25 PM

If Sarah Palin were in this race, things would be a lot different.

Bachmann would only be ahead by 8.

YYZ on July 13, 2011 at 9:25 PM

Comment saved for future reference.

ddrintn on July 13, 2011 at 9:27 PM

14 days…

faraway on July 13, 2011 at 9:27 PM

Men flocking to Bachmann. lol
They vote with their penis’s.
rickyricardo on July 13, 2011 at 9:21 PM

Now all you have to do is explain your vote for Obama. Dude.

Bishop on July 13, 2011 at 9:28 PM

Palin tonight on Presidency: “Legally there are timeframes. That time is coming rapidly”

faraway on July 13, 2011 at 9:28 PM

YYZ on July 13, 2011 at 9:25 PM

Yep, I love MB, but if Palin were to enter the race…

Or when Perry enters the race, it’s a game changer.

petefrt on July 13, 2011 at 9:30 PM

Yep, I love MB, but if Palin were to enter the race…

Or when Perry enters the race, it’s a game changer.

petefrt on July 13, 2011 at 9:30 PM

Yeah, either or both of those get in, Bachmann’s joining Pawlenty.

ddrintn on July 13, 2011 at 9:32 PM

Palin’s definitely in. She all but said it tonight on Hannity.

SouthernGent on July 13, 2011 at 9:32 PM

“Catty women” like me prefer a candidate with some kind of relevant experience, relevant experience that Bachmann doesn’t have, and don’t really care what Bachmann looks like or how many children she’s had.

Common Sense on July 13, 2011 at 9:33 PM

I was just thinking tonight: at this point 4 years ago McCain was about where Huntsman is.

Marcus on July 13, 2011 at 9:34 PM

“Catty women” like me prefer a candidate with some kind of relevant experience, relevant experience that Bachmann doesn’t have, and don’t really care what Bachmann looks like or how many children she’s had.

Common Sense on July 13, 2011 at 9:33 PM

Well, Obama did pretty well with women voters though…

ddrintn on July 13, 2011 at 9:35 PM

I was just thinking tonight: at this point 4 years ago McCain was about where Huntsman is.

Marcus on July 13, 2011 at 9:34 PM

Yeah, and Huckabee was at about 3% in Iowa. This stuff this early is pretty meaningless.

ddrintn on July 13, 2011 at 9:37 PM

CW on July 13, 2011 at 9:19 PM

I am not referring to Barry. I am referring to T-Paw. He supports the Libya war, and called out his own party for backing “isolationism.”

Frank T.J Mackey on July 13, 2011 at 9:39 PM

T-Paw will make an excellent head of FEMA…

Seven Percent Solution on July 13, 2011 at 9:46 PM

Palin’s definitely in. She all but said it tonight on Hannity.

SouthernGent on July 13, 2011 at 9:32 PM

sure sounded like it. She left herself an out still but from her answer it was clear she is leaning heavily towards running.

unseen on July 13, 2011 at 9:51 PM

Palin will make her decision in aug/sept

carry on

unseen on July 13, 2011 at 9:24 PM

I didn’t watch Hannity tonight. Did she actually say that? That’s a terrible move IMO. Early August is fine. But if she waits til September, she’s gonna let Bachmann(barring some major self-inflicted gaffe) solidify herself as the favorite in Iowa. With Mittens having all but locked up New Hampshire, Palin’s entire candidacy will hinge on South Carolina. And who knows what could happen there if Nikki Haley chooses to endorse someone else. Not to mention she leaves the door wide open for Perry to get in.

Doughboy on July 13, 2011 at 9:56 PM

good for her. she’s the only one who really takes it to the community organizer.

sbvft contributor on July 13, 2011 at 9:58 PM

Bachmann on Greta tonight (starts now) and Pawlenty will be on too and Greta is going to ask about his Bachmann record remarks. This should be interesting.

miConsevative on July 13, 2011 at 10:01 PM

Sixteen months. Yes, four years ago at this point McCain was a Huntsman-esque blip.

And at this point in 1991, nobody outside of Arkansas knew who their governor was.

Freelancer on July 13, 2011 at 10:03 PM

Heh. Bachmann was watching Palin. Used her ‘priorities’ point when she felt stuck in a corner.

miConsevative on July 13, 2011 at 10:08 PM

Go Michelle, you have a lot of votes down here in Georgia. As a guy, I think it is time to put a gal in charge….the men have screwed things up enough and Bachmann has the smarts, conviction and talent to make the correct decisions.

devolvingtowardsidiocracy on July 13, 2011 at 10:12 PM

People remember Iowa is Bachmann’s home State. She has a homer advantage there. Unless she really slips up she will win Iowa.

Mitt has that kind of advantage in the NE States. Pawlenty might win Minnesota if he is still in. Palin splits the votes with Michele and ruins Bachmann’s chances. Santorum, Huntsman, and Johnson are out early. Cain and Paul stick around but are non factors.

Perry could still enter and win but he had better do it soon. If he doesn’t we will probably end up with a choice of Romney or Obama.

jpmn on July 13, 2011 at 10:19 PM

The Palin kids are gravitating toward Bachmann since Palin isn’t going to run.

Same story if Bachmann actually got the nom. A Mondale-type stomping.

Moesart on July 13, 2011 at 10:27 PM

The Palin kids are gravitating toward Bachmann since Palin isn’t going to run.

Same story if Bachmann actually got the nom. A Mondale-type stomping.

Moesart on July 13, 2011 at 10:27 PM

You need to put your money where your mouth is and make a hat bet a la Jetboy.

miConsevative on July 13, 2011 at 10:34 PM

..deal with it: Romney/Bachman 2012. And, no, The Pantload will NOT win.

The War Planner on July 13, 2011 at 10:42 PM

Backbone 29%, Squish 8%.

Emperor Norton on July 13, 2011 at 9:08 PM

TitaniumBackbone 29% ;)

Good for her, btw!

-Aslan’s Girl

Aslans Girl on July 13, 2011 at 11:40 PM

devolvingtowardsidiocracy on July 13, 2011 at 10:12 PM

Oh, please. “Men” are also the ones who crafted the Constitution, the greatest document and form of government in all history. Identity politics is for the Libs (I’m a Bachmann supporter, btw), not conservatives. I support Bachmann (along with Santorum and Perry) because she’s a conservative, not because she’s a woman.

-Aslan’s Girl

Aslans Girl on July 13, 2011 at 11:44 PM

Wow, I bet Allah’s ears were bleeding for that 6 minute vid. GOD! JESUS! FAITH! Poor thing, how did he survive it?

leftnomore on July 14, 2011 at 12:34 AM

I hate to say it but after last week’s display, i think we need Chris Christie.

His beat down on the press…again, was exactly what the 2012 election will be all about. The media being ignorant fools trying to defend an incompetent President. Only someone like Christie who plays them like a drum, can destroy Obama with 100% certainty, and the country cant afford to take chances at this point.

alecj on July 14, 2011 at 1:15 AM

Allahpundit, now you know why Romney skipped the straw poll. It wasn’t a risk at all. Iowans vote stupidly almost every election. H.W. Bush instead of Reagan, Pat Robertson was 2nd place in one, Huckabee instead of Romney etc…

They should lose their #1 caucus spot. They elected so many liberals over the years that the judges appointed by them forced gay marriage down their throats and then they scratch their heads wondering how that happened. They will jump to Perry if he gets in and he’s a former Al Gore campaigner for Pete’s sake!

scotash on July 14, 2011 at 1:17 AM

Toothless hillbillies giving her the edge…

Mr_Magoo on July 14, 2011 at 1:33 AM

Bachmann may have placed herself in a bad position with her jackrabbit start in Iowa. If she builds a strong and steady early lead, and wins Ames, it gives the rest of the field the chance to declare Iowa her “home court” and not contest the state. That way, her victory would be diminished, and the finish of a single-digit candidate “above expectations” in 2nd could give them a bigger boost.

For Pawlenty, the question is where else can he make a good showing in the early calendar? Romney is strong in NH, NV, and MI, Bachmann and Gingrich have been working SC hard, the map just doesn’t favor Pawlenty being the guy without a strong showing in Iowa. But a weak second to Bachmann there might help him less than any other candidate, since he was once considered a likely favorite in the state.

Adjoran on July 14, 2011 at 5:46 AM

Palin will make her decision in aug/sept

carry on

unseen on July 13, 2011 at 9:24 PM

Yeah, yeah. We know. Lady Achilles will continue to sulk until she deigns to get in the fight.

MJBrutus on July 14, 2011 at 7:14 AM

Once again, an attractive woman achieves some success and notoriety in the GOP and the reaction is that it’s all because men like to look at her.

In Chicago on WLS (Roe Conn’s show) his idiot sidekick Richard Roeper (Sun-Times liberal dipstick) likened Bachmann to “that hot neighbor of yours; everyone loves it when she shows up at the party but your wife get’s pissed that you were talking to her”.

It’s not too far off, but it’s off. Despite lots of healthy red blood cells, I have never cast a vote in my life because I wanted to ask the candidate out for a few drinks, and I’m sure that’s true of almost everyone else. Maybe women think this way and they’re projecting.

Jaibones on July 14, 2011 at 9:12 AM

I was just thinking tonight: at this point 4 years ago McCain was about where Huntsman is.

Marcus on July 13, 2011 at 9:34 PM

No, at this point 4 years ago, McCain was about where Gingrinch is…remember how all of McCain’s staff left him?

Dateline: July, 2007 (exactly like today)

WASHINGTON — The once-promising presidential prospects of Republican Sen. John McCain suffered another blow on Tuesday, as two top advisers departed a campaign that has struggled with lagging poll numbers, lackluster fundraising, close identification with an unpopular war and a clash with his party’s rank-and-file conservatives over the volatile issue of immigration.

Eerily similar…

Geministorm on July 14, 2011 at 11:03 AM

PROBLEM: Ever since I saw the “catty women” comments above, I can’t get it out of my head: The “Batman” theme with “Bachman” substituted for “Batman”….

(…and so far, legal drugs don’t help…)

landlines on July 14, 2011 at 11:54 AM

Bachmann may have placed herself in a bad position with her jackrabbit start in Iowa. If she builds a strong and steady early lead, and wins Ames, it gives the rest of the field the chance to declare Iowa her “home court” and not contest the state. That way, her victory would be diminished, and the finish of a single-digit candidate “above expectations” in 2nd could give them a bigger boost.

People elsewhere in the country might dismiss a Bachmann victory in Iowa as a “home-state advantage” or a “one-state fluke”, but then Huckabee won Iowa in 2008 (without being from Iowa) but finished third in the overall nomination process.

Bachmann’s surge seems to indicate that there is a thirst in Republican primary voters for a non-Romney Tea Party candidate–not necessarily Bachmann, but someone who shares her ideas.

This would be a great time for Gov. Rick Perry to declare his candidacy. He could probably capture most of Bachmann’s support, as well as some of Pawlenty’s and Romney’s support, and his entry into the race would probably discourage Palin from running, and Perry would have a far better chance at winning the Presidency than Palin. Even if Bachmann eventually wins Iowa, Perry could gain momentum by a good showing in SC and FL, and then seal the deal in delegate-rich Texas.

If Perry jumps into the race soon and starts to surge while Bachmann fades, Bachmann would probably quit the race and endorse Perry. The time is right for Perry to jump in, but if Palin declares in August, Perry’s “window of opportunity” may be short, and he shouldn’t wait much longer.

Steve Z on July 14, 2011 at 12:34 PM

MJBrutus on July 14, 2011 at 7:14 AM

Why isn’t she in if she wants it?

IlikedAUH2O on July 15, 2011 at 8:03 AM