Bachmann leading in Iowa?

posted at 8:45 am on July 11, 2011 by Ed Morrissey

Bachmentum? Michele Bachmann’s momentum continues in her birth state of Iowa, according to a new poll of likely caucus voters by the Iowa Republican.  Bachmann surpasses Mitt Romney by four points, while another Minnesotan has also muscled up the ranks:

Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann has surpassed former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney in a recent Iowa poll that was conducted by TheIowaRepublican.com.  With Bachmann now leading in Iowa, Romney has fallen to second place, but he is still well ahead of third place finisher Tim Pawlenty, who has overtaken Herman Cain my a miniscule margin.

Bachmann received support from 25 percent of likely Iowa caucus goers in the poll, while Romney is backed by 21 percent.  The poll also shows signs of growth for former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, who now stands in third place in statistical tie with Herman Cain at just under nine percent.  Ron Paul finished with six percent, Newt Gingrich with four percent, Rick Santorum with two percent, and Jon Huntsman rounded out the field with one percent. …

While Bachmann’s lead over Romney is just within the margin of error, the poll’s cross tabs show how much momentum her campaign has generated in Iowa.  Her favorability is ten points higher than Romney’s, who had the second highest number in that category.  Her unfavorable figure is 14 points lower than Romney’s, giving her a stellar plus 65 favorability margin.  Her numbers suggest that Bachmann has found a very effective way to appeal to caucus goers.

The candidate with the next highest favorable/unfavorable spread is Tim Pawlenty with a plus 48 margin.  Like Bachmann, Pawlenty is well liked by caucus goers, but he has found it more difficult to move his overall polling number in the state.  Pawlenty finished in third place in the poll by edgeing out Herman Cain, 8.8 percent to 8.5 percent.  Pawlenty’s numbers have increased since the Des Moines Register poll showed him at 6 percent.  A major factor could be the radio and television ads the Pawlenty campaign has been airing in the past few weeks.

Romney’s decline shouldn’t surprise too many people.  He pulled out of the Ames poll next month, which is both an early test of the field and a fundraising opportunity for the state GOP.  It’s not exactly shocking that enthusiastic Republican caucus goes might have gotten a little less enthusiastic about Romney after his withdrawal.  I would expect a finish for Romney in Ames — and likely in January’s real caucus — at third or less.

Bachmann has to score well in Iowa and in the Ames poll to keep the media spotlight and political momentum.  So does Pawlenty, who has gotten more aggressive in the state.  His standing increased a little in this survey, barely edging out Herman Cain for third place, but he’s going in the right direction. Pawlenty needs a second place finish in January at a minimum to keep his presidential campaign viable, as New Hampshire will almost certainly belong to Romney.  He has another four weeks until the Ames debate and straw poll to establish himself in his own backyard.

Still, the big questions for Bachmann and Pawlenty remain these: Sarah Palin and/or Rick Perry.  If either or both get in the race before Ames, they could find themselves swamped out of the spotlight and the enthusiasm of caucus-goers.

Andrew Malcolm looks at the new numbers as well.

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This just shows how weak Romney is, when someone with absolutely zero executive experience can lead him in the polls.

wheelgun on July 11, 2011 at 8:48 AM

Bachman is the second best thing to come out of Iowa in a long time. The best thing was my wife.

I hope she does really well in Iowa. If she can do well there, she can win this thing.

ted c on July 11, 2011 at 8:48 AM

Ed,

How negative do you expect the inevtiable Pawlenty-Bachmann throwdown to be? How long does Minnesota Nice last when Pawlenty’s strategy hinges on Iowa and Bachmann’s pretty much finished if she doesn’t win?

KingGold on July 11, 2011 at 8:49 AM

conservative voters aren’t going to allow the MSM, the GOP elite and the dems to choose our candidate this time. DD

Darvin Dowdy on July 11, 2011 at 8:51 AM

How negative do you expect the inevtiable Pawlenty-Bachmann throwdown to be? How long does Minnesota Nice last when Pawlenty’s strategy hinges on Iowa and Bachmann’s pretty much finished if she doesn’t win?

KingGold on July 11, 2011 at 8:49 AM

It won’t just be T-Paw who goes after Bachmann. What Mittens take off the the gloves soon as well. The higher she rises in the polls, the more the competition will come at her. And T-Paw is going after her the right way. As much as I like Bachmann, the sad truth is she doesn’t really have much of a legislative record to run on. Granted, neither did Obama, but we need to hold ourselves to a higher standard than that sorry excuse for a President.

Doughboy on July 11, 2011 at 8:58 AM

C’mon Michelle! It’s just possible that Bachmann could build her bona fides to the point that she might give Perry or Palin a tough time. Pawlenty is in a tough spot. His “Minnesota nice” makes him look like a squish, but if he toughens up against Bachmann, he could look like a turd.

cartooner on July 11, 2011 at 9:00 AM

This just shows how dumb Iowa Republicans are, not how weak Romney is. Iowa has become irrelevant after the 2008 Hucksterby debacle and now this nonsense. Hope you enjoyed your run at being the first GOP primary Iowa cause this will likely be your last.

OKCubsFan on July 11, 2011 at 9:01 AM

ted c on July 11, 2011 at 8:48 AM

Best of luck for your wife.

heshtesh on July 11, 2011 at 9:05 AM

Doughboy on July 11, 2011 at 8:58 AM

MB has principles. Barack Obama, well….you know.

None.

blatantblue on July 11, 2011 at 9:05 AM

Good news! Get ‘em, MB.

But of course the game will change when Perry announces.

petefrt on July 11, 2011 at 9:07 AM

blatantblue on July 11, 2011 at 9:05 AM

Doughboy’s right. Any comparisons between our candidates and our failure of a president and a disservice to that candidate.

That’s why I find Bachmann-Obama and Palin-Obama comparisons to be especially specious. We already know they’re better than Obama. Question is, is there a better Republican we can pick?

KingGold on July 11, 2011 at 9:10 AM

Bachmann because Palin isn’t running leading in Iowa?

***btw,
For those here that have entertained the idea of leaving for Australia if Obama wins another term….think again, they have a idjit of the highest degree in charge down there.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/A/AS_AUSTRALIA_CARBON_TAX?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2011-07-10-18-00-54

PappyD61 on July 11, 2011 at 9:13 AM

MB has principles. Barack Obama, well….you know.

None.

blatantblue on July 11, 2011 at 9:05 AM

I’m not saying she’s not a better person or politician than Barry. My point is that compared to some of her fellow GOP candidates, her resume is very thin. Let’s say she wins the nomination. What accomplishments will she point to from her career in Congress as evidence that she’d make a good Commander-in-Chief?

Again, I’m aware Obama never could do that himself in 2008, but he had the advantage of a sycophantic press who paid zero attention to his record or his past, plus Republicans and conservatives should hold ourselves to higher standards than the Dems.

Doughboy on July 11, 2011 at 9:14 AM

Doughboy on July 11, 2011 at 9:14 AM

We’ve had people with huge resumes who were lackluster and awful, and people will huge resumes who were great. It’s the principles that matter to me, honestly.

Sarah? Has principles. MB? I believe she does too. Pawlenty? Yes, even though he is the Vanilla Bean Candidate. Mitt? Questionable.

blatantblue on July 11, 2011 at 9:23 AM

Boy did Gingrich blow it right out of the shoot, thus falling off the radar… Thought that man was smarter than that. The old establishment critters have no clue as to how the regular folks (tea party) are thinking right now.

Keemo on July 11, 2011 at 9:23 AM

Let’s say she wins the nomination. What accomplishments will she point to from her career in Congress as evidence that she’d make a good Commander-in-Chief?

Doughboy on July 11, 2011 at 9:14 AM

Seriously, can we just step back for a second and consider what it would actually be like to have a President Bachmann? Why is anybody the least bit concerned about her experience considering what needs to be done to save this country? Her principles are sound and she has guts. I’ll take that over four more years of Obama any day, and I’ll take that over all the ‘experience’ Mittens brings to the table.

fossten on July 11, 2011 at 9:24 AM

Seriously, can we just step back for a second and consider what it would actually be like to have a President Bachmann? Why is anybody the least bit concerned about her experience considering what needs to be done to save this country? Her principles are sound and she has guts. I’ll take that over four more years of Obama any day, and I’ll take that over all the ‘experience’ Mittens brings to the table.

fossten on July 11, 2011 at 9:24 AM

Experience does matter. How can anyone say otherwise after the last 2 1/2 years. Do I want someone with decades of it? No. But at least show me that you’ve negotiated deals. That you’ve brought Republicans and Democrats together on at least some things. That you’ve sponsored key pieces of legislation(preferably good ones).

The problem with Bachmann is that she’s accomplished nothing while in office. Why do you think it’s a virtual impossibility for members of the House to ascend to the Presidency? When you’re one out of 435 voices and not in any sort of leadership position, it’s difficult to do much more than just vote “yay” or “nay”.

Doughboy on July 11, 2011 at 9:29 AM

What principles, the ones she used to have or the ones you like now. She receives government largess and rails against it. She’s a mess.

wheelgun on July 11, 2011 at 9:32 AM

After Bachmann signed that marriage pledge with the bigoted words, I would never consider voting for someone that far right and you can take it to the bank that a majority of the people feel that way.

How can any candidate sign that pledge with the words it had in the preamble about slavery which is an affront to blacks not to mention that they didn’t even have history right? Any candidate who signs a petition like this will not get my support or my vote. If they signed this, what will they sign as President without reading?

She has had more gaffes on history and now this. No way an intelligent person would sign the marriage petition and that goes for Santorum as well.

Her principles don’t reflect what I believe and that is state’s rights should be at the forefront not having the federal government involved in social issues unless it is life threatening. The same people who have objected to the federal government interference in abortion are the same people who now want a marriage amendment. It is up to my state to determine issues like marriage, abortion, etc. Because SCOTUS overstepped on abortion doesn’t mean that conservatives need to do the same with a marriage amendment.

PhiKapMom on July 11, 2011 at 9:36 AM

PappyD61 on July 11, 2011 at 9:13 AM

What have I been saying all along? America is the last best hope for mankind.

I am disturbed and dismayed that you are so easily letting your country slip through your fingers.

If Obama wins a second term western civilization as we know it ends!

Crux Australis on July 11, 2011 at 9:37 AM

January’s real caucus

Everything is subject to change – Everyone who is getting in the race have not already declared. Right now Michelle Bachmann is the flavor of the week.

Dr Evil on July 11, 2011 at 9:47 AM

Seriously, can we just step back for a second and consider what it would actually be like to have a President Bachmann? Why is anybody the least bit concerned about her experience considering what needs to be done to save this country? Her principles are sound and she has guts. I’ll take that over four more years of Obama any day, and I’ll take that over all the ‘experience’ Mittens brings to the table.

fossten on July 11, 2011 at 9:24 AM

According to some people, she’d be terrible because she’d only have three years in the house and a law degree to her resume, which is, according the same people, insignificant. They then claim that if Bachmann had served half a term as governor before resigning, then she’d have the most executive experience of anyone on the planet, and could be guaranteed to be the best president we’ll ever have, and should probably just stop having elections after she got elected.

MadisonConservative on July 11, 2011 at 9:54 AM

MB is a stand in for the real deal.

Kissmygrits on July 11, 2011 at 9:59 AM

They then claim that if Bachmann had served half a term as governor before resigning, then she’d have the most executive experience of anyone on the planet, and could be guaranteed to be the best president we’ll ever have, and should probably just stop having elections after she got elected.

MadisonConservative on July 11, 2011 at 9:54 AM

Wow, somebody’s got a raging case of PDS…

cs89 on July 11, 2011 at 10:01 AM

Why won’t the next savior of our nation Michelle Bachmann resign from her congressional seat. I’d have to say so she can have a direct impact on how much money can be funneled to her husband.

wheelgun on July 11, 2011 at 10:02 AM

MB is a stand in for the real deal.

Kissmygrits on July 11, 2011 at 9:59 AM

Snort! got that right. and in a month it will be…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yN6mLLiX14w

katy the mean old lady on July 11, 2011 at 10:02 AM

Wow, somebody’s got a raging case of PDS…

cs89 on July 11, 2011 at 10:01 AM

Wait…I’ve got PDS because I point out the arguments made by other people on this website?

Mmmkay.

MadisonConservative on July 11, 2011 at 10:09 AM

They then claim that if Bachmann had served half a term as governor before resigning, then she’d have the most executive experience of anyone on the planet, and could be guaranteed to be the best president we’ll ever have, and should probably just stop having elections after she got elected.

MadisonConservative on July 11, 2011 at 9:54 AM

At least Palin can point to things she did while in office(the pipeline deal, ethics reform, vetoing spending, taking on oil companies and securing checks for Alaskan citizens). Same with Chris Christie. He’s only been in office for a year and a half yet he just negotiated a huge deal with Democrats to secure more concessions from unions and save the taxpayers billions.

As I said before, it’s not about how long someone’s been in office. It’s what they’ve accomplished while serving. House members don’t get very many opportunities to do that, especially when they’ve only been there for 4 1/2 years like Bachmann. In terms of her resume, she simply can’t complete with Mittens, T-Paw, Palin, or Christie. Hell, you could almost argue that she doesn’t measure up to Herman Cain.

Doughboy on July 11, 2011 at 10:10 AM

As I said before, it’s not about how long someone’s been in office. It’s what they’ve accomplished while serving. House members don’t get very many opportunities to do that, especially when they’ve only been there for 4 1/2 years like Bachmann. In terms of her resume, she simply can’t complete with Mittens, T-Paw, Palin, or Christie. Hell, you could almost argue that she doesn’t measure up to Herman Cain.

Doughboy on July 11, 2011 at 10:10 AM

…and yet clearly Romney’s resume doesn’t make him a conservative, nor does Christie’s…T-Paw’s resume doesn’t make him energetic or charismatic, and Cain’s resume somehow doesn’t help him articulate his agenda.

My point is that resumes/executive experience/”qualified” are misnomers. They’re political buzzwords, that really have nothing to do with having a principled conservative candidate that is focused on shrinking government.

MadisonConservative on July 11, 2011 at 10:13 AM

Wait…I’ve got PDS because I point out the arguments made by other people on this website?

Mmmkay.

MadisonConservative on July 11, 2011 at 10:09 AM

You have PDS because you had the temerity to point them out.

KingGold on July 11, 2011 at 10:13 AM

My point is that resumes/executive experience/”qualified” are misnomers. They’re political buzzwords, that really have nothing to do with having a principled conservative candidate that is focused on shrinking government.

MadisonConservative on July 11, 2011 at 10:13 AM

The reason a resume matters is that it proves the candidate has a track record of shrinking government. Anyone can stand up there and preach it. Actually doing it is what matters.

If Bachmann is our nominee, she’s gonna be pressed by the Democrats and media(I know, I’m being redundant) to show why Americans should entrust her with the office of the Presidency. I know she’ll espouse conservative principles, but she can’t do much more than that.

Doughboy on July 11, 2011 at 10:19 AM

Well boys, how about noticing this Bachmann WTF moment?

http://www.rightspeak.net/2011/07/would-michele-bachmann-be-submissive.html

PhilipJames on July 11, 2011 at 10:21 AM

PhilipJames on July 11, 2011 at 10:21 AM

Now, unlike the other stuff, that is assuredly a cheap shot. Alan Grayson tried that line of attack last November against Dan Webster, and it was just as heinous and dishonest.

It’s lowbrow smear being peddled by the same people alleging that Marcus Bachmann is secretly a homosexual.

KingGold on July 11, 2011 at 10:23 AM

The reason a resume matters is that it proves the candidate has a track record of shrinking government. Anyone can stand up there and preach it. Actually doing it is what matters.

If Bachmann is our nominee, she’s gonna be pressed by the Democrats and media(I know, I’m being redundant) to show why Americans should entrust her with the office of the Presidency. I know she’ll espouse conservative principles, but she can’t do much more than that.

Doughboy on July 11, 2011 at 10:19 AM

So putting forth legislation to repeal ObamaCare the day after it passed, as well as legislation to repeal the Dodd-Frank Financial Reform law aren’t part of a track record of shrinking government?

MadisonConservative on July 11, 2011 at 10:24 AM

Seriously, can we just step back for a second and consider what it would actually be like to have a President Bachmann? Why is anybody the least bit concerned about her experience considering what needs to be done to save this country? Her principles are sound and she has guts. I’ll take that over four more years of Obama any day, and I’ll take that over all the ‘experience’ Mittens brings to the table.

fossten on July 11, 2011 at 9:24 AM

Talk is cheap. Action is hard.

katy the mean old lady on July 11, 2011 at 10:24 AM

So putting forth legislation to repeal ObamaCare the day after it passed, as well as legislation to repeal the Dodd-Frank Financial Reform law aren’t part of a track record of shrinking government?

MadisonConservative on July 11, 2011 at 10:24 AM

If such legislation has zero chance of passage and doesn’t come with a coalition behind it, it’s no more than a political gimmick – no better or worse than a Tea Party sign that reads “Kill The Bill” on a larger scale.

KingGold on July 11, 2011 at 10:27 AM

So putting forth legislation to repeal ObamaCare the day after it passed, as well as legislation to repeal the Dodd-Frank Financial Reform law aren’t part of a track record of shrinking government?

MadisonConservative on July 11, 2011 at 10:24 AM

That’s nice, but it’s also hollow. Those never had a prayer of passing the Senate or getting signed by Obama. What has Bachmann actually done to shrink government? What legislation has she sponsored or at the very least voted on that did in fact get signed into law and reduce its size and scope?

Doughboy on July 11, 2011 at 10:27 AM

Well boys, how about noticing this Bachmann WTF moment?

http://www.rightspeak.net/2011/07/would-michele-bachmann-be-submissive.html

PhilipJames on July 11, 2011 at 10:21 AM

So you’re basically saying “no Christian married women should be president”?

MadisonConservative on July 11, 2011 at 10:29 AM

Reason #37 for why Iowa is a useless “first” in the caucus/primary season.

Nothing against MB, T-Paw… but come on – this is more of a hometown hero play than has anything to do with politics and Republican cred.

Odie1941 on July 11, 2011 at 10:30 AM

If such legislation has zero chance of passage and doesn’t come with a coalition behind it, it’s no more than a political gimmick – no better or worse than a Tea Party sign that reads “Kill The Bill” on a larger scale.

KingGold on July 11, 2011 at 10:27 AM

It’s still what she’s doing while in office. Why does that have no bearing on what she would do…while in office?

MadisonConservative on July 11, 2011 at 10:30 AM

That’s nice, but it’s also hollow. Those never had a prayer of passing the Senate or getting signed by Obama. What has Bachmann actually done to shrink government? What legislation has she sponsored or at the very least voted on that did in fact get signed into law and reduce its size and scope?

Doughboy on July 11, 2011 at 10:27 AM

Tell me what she should have done from 2007-2010 with a liberal president, liberal-controlled House, and liberal-controlled Senate. She did exactly what she could in her capacity: put forth legislation to shrink government. If Sarah Palin had been in the same position, she could have done no better.

MadisonConservative on July 11, 2011 at 10:31 AM

The 2012 election will not be the last election we ever have. After our last three elections in 2006, 2008, and 2010, we can guess what will happen if the President is viewed as too extreme. Even if Bachmann managed to defeat Obama (which I doubt she could), there will be elections in 2014 and 2016. None of us would happy at their outcomes if Bachmann were President. Not only do we need to elect someone who can win in 2012. We also need to elect someone who won’t lead to disaster in 2014 and 2016.

thuja on July 11, 2011 at 10:41 AM

It’s still what she’s doing while in office. Why does that have no bearing on what she would do…while in office?

MadisonConservative on July 11, 2011 at 10:30 AM

Maybe if she had bothered to open her yap after the Tucson shooting, WHILE IN OFFICE.
She is in a position of influence.

katy the mean old lady on July 11, 2011 at 10:48 AM

Tell me what she should have done from 2007-2010 with a liberal president, liberal-controlled House, and liberal-controlled Senate. She did exactly what she could in her capacity: put forth legislation to shrink government. If Sarah Palin had been in the same position, she could have done no better.

MadisonConservative on July 11, 2011 at 10:31 AM

But Palin wasn’t in the same position. She was a governor. No one put a gun to Bachmann’s head and told her to run for the House. She could’ve sought another office. She has every right to seek the Presidency, but the harsh reality is that a House member hasn’t won the nomination in over a century.

Doughboy on July 11, 2011 at 10:59 AM

No one put a gun to Bachmann’s head and told her to run for the House. She could’ve sought another office.

Doughboy on July 11, 2011 at 10:59 AM

Wow. That’s an argument…I guess.

MadisonConservative on July 11, 2011 at 11:09 AM

Wow. That’s an argument…I guess.

MadisonConservative on July 11, 2011 at 11:09 AM

Here’s another one, though it’s one you may not like.

Bachmann’s about ten years too early to run for president. We’ll be having presidential elections in the future, and Bachmann’s still young. More specifically, nobody’s making Bachmann run now.

KingGold on July 11, 2011 at 11:17 AM

Well boys, how about noticing this Bachmann WTF moment?

http://www.rightspeak.net/2011/07/would-michele-bachmann-be-submissive.html

PhilipJames on July 11, 2011 at 10:21 AM

Wow, there’s some people here who must spend hours upon hours searching the leftwing smear sites, just looking for anything to trash this woman.

Is this some sort of a new hobby?

Knucklehead on July 11, 2011 at 12:29 PM

Iowa will vote for a scare crow if needs be. They don’t know whether they are coming or going over there. If Perry or Palin jump in, look for these polls to fluctuate uncontrollably.

scotash on July 11, 2011 at 12:29 PM

Oh by the way, Iowa is the state that had gay marriage forced upon them because they couldn’t figure out political 2 + 2 (That electing Democrats constantly has real world consequences for a supposedly socially conservative state) I don’t Iowa should be trusted with the Republican “first primary caucus” status it currently has.

scotash on July 11, 2011 at 12:33 PM

Graphs and poll analysis here: http://poorrichardsnews.com/post/7496592981/michele-bachmann-overtakes-romney-in-iowa

The favorability numbers are fascinating.

poorrichardsnews on July 11, 2011 at 12:43 PM

The celebrity earmark queen quitter doesn’t have the nuts to run for POTUS. She’s just jerking the Palinistas’ chains and snarking from the sidelines. She doesn’t have the discipline, nor even wants to be locked down in any serious role, especially POTUS. Plus, most imagine 4 yrs of circus clownery including Bristol/Levi distractions. She failed miserably during the very few tough interviews, and still today blames “gotcha questions” (ex: “how was your day today”) for her moronic responses. Even as Palin knows she is not running, and never had any intention to do so, she currently has the nerve to say she could win if she tried(tried to have the nuts, that is). Experience? LOL. She quit the only real “executive experience” she ever had, and before that, like she said, “It’s not rocket science, it’s 6 million and 53 employees.”

Heisenberg, Art of War, etc…, God you people are a joke.

Just face it….books, softball interviews, reality shows, facebook snarking, Bristol/Levi dramas, dancing with the idiots, etc…. are her future.

nottakingsides on July 11, 2011 at 12:54 PM

Experience does matter. How can anyone say otherwise after the last 2 1/2 years.

Doughboy

So, we’d be much better off if only Obama was a more experienced Marxist? Ummm……no. The problem isn’t his lack of experience, the problem is his ideology.

xblade on July 11, 2011 at 2:25 PM

Iowa is not really a puzzle. You just have to pander to the bible thumping, gay bashing, bigots in a state that goes for Obama anyway.

borntoraisehogs on July 11, 2011 at 3:57 PM

That’s nice, but it’s also hollow. Those never had a prayer of passing the Senate or getting signed by Obama. What has Bachmann actually done to shrink government? What legislation has she sponsored or at the very least voted on that did in fact get signed into law and reduce its size and scope?

Doughboy on July 11, 2011 at 10:27 AM

Tell me what she should have done from 2007-2010 with a liberal president, liberal-controlled House, and liberal-controlled Senate. She did exactly what she could in her capacity: put forth legislation to shrink government. If Sarah Palin had been in the same position, she could have done no better.

MadisonConservative on July 11, 2011 at 10:31 AM

What she could have gotten passed would have gotten her branded a RINO.

CW on July 11, 2011 at 7:40 PM

They then claim that if Bachmann had served half a term as governor before resigning,

then she’d have the most executive experience of anyone on the planet, and could be guaranteed to be the best president we’ll ever have, and should probably just stop having elections after she got elected.

MadisonConservative on July 11, 2011 at 9:54 AM

Hyperbolic, much? If you have to work that hard to build a strawman……

tom on July 11, 2011 at 8:16 PM