Gallup: Obama back to pre-midterm approval levels
posted at 2:10 pm on July 7, 2011 by Ed Morrissey
Or, to put it another way, Barack Obama has returned to the same approval levels he’s had without the short-lived bump he got from the Osama bin Laden operation. Gallup delivers the bad news in today’s survey results, showing Obama underwater (via Jim Geraghty):
President Barack Obama’s job approval rating averaged 46% in June, down from 50% in May but similar to his ratings from February through April.
The president’s approval rating rose in May after the May 1 announcement that U.S. forces had killed Osama bin Laden in Pakistan. It has since subsided about equally among all major demographic subgroups, reverting nearly to April’s level.
Obama’s strongest support continues to come from blacks (86%), adults aged 18 to 29 (54%), those living in the East (53%), and Hispanics (52%). This is in addition to 81% approval from fellow Democrats (as well as 75% from liberals and 55% from moderates, not shown here).
Absent two significant and brief spikes, the trend line on Obama’s approval has been nearly flat for more than a year. The first spike occurred in January after the shooting of Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D-AZ), and the second was just a few weeks ago after OBL’s sudden adoption of room temperature courtesy of the Navy SEALs. Otherwise, Obama’s approval ratings have remained in a narrow range of 44-47% since May 2010 — which is almost certainly related to the lack of change in economic conditions during that period.
The demographic results are mildly interesting but hardly a surprise. Obama lost ground in almost all categories, but in most cases simply returned to the old trend lines. In looking at the annual averages, most of the damage to Obama’s standing came in 2010, and probably most of it in the first half of the year. While this suggests that Obama may be reaching a floor for his approval rating, it also suggests that he may be close to his new long-term ceiling as well. It didn’t take long after such a singular event as the OBL mission for voter assessments to return to their year-long level.
What does this mean to Obama’s re-election effort? The 44-47% range is not a slam-dunk re-elect number, but it’s also not a slam-dunk loss level, either. The re-election campaign will have to focus on a big base turnout (not unlike the 2004 campaign for Bush, actually), which means that Obama needs to go more to his left over the next several months. That’s why we’re seeing the red-meat political rhetoric about corporate jet owners and the usual class-warfare arguments, while Obama attempts to shift his optics to the center by talking about spending cuts and entitlement reform. That’s a very difficult balance to maintain, and if the economy continues to stagnate, it probably won’t pay off.
Blowback
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One word: How?
Dude hasn’t done a damn thing except divide and demonize.
Ricohoc on July 7, 2011 at 2:12 PM
Gallup’s results seem to follow nothing in particular.
Jaibones on July 7, 2011 at 2:14 PM
Who are these people who think this man is doing a good job?
Cindy Munford on July 7, 2011 at 2:15 PM
They must have had the entire poll in the d section of dc! How in the name of goodness can anyone think bho is doing a good job?
L
letget on July 7, 2011 at 2:15 PM
The big problem with comparing 2012 to 2004 is the Iraq war was only a year old in 2004. The majority of America had not really soured on the War, that was limited to mostly hardcore lefties. In general, trying to get re-elected by turning out the base only works if there is nothing for the rest of the country to be fired up about. In 2004 most people still had a high opinion of Bush based on 9/11 and the fact that the 2000-2001 recession was pretty much over.
No way is “turning out the base” going to work for Obama. Now with the antipathy the rest of the country feels for Obama, liberals, Democrats, and the liberal agenda. Add to that a protracted economic downturn that is better than 50-50 to be in a double dip recession by that time, and his goose is fully cooked. No amount of pandering to the base can save him.
deadrody on July 7, 2011 at 2:15 PM
46% is a ceiling if the economy doesn’t improve in the next nine months, and it can’t.
Vashta.Nerada on July 7, 2011 at 2:17 PM
Ot:
Rush talking about Fast and Furious!
Colbyjack on July 7, 2011 at 2:17 PM
Look at where his support is coming from. Blacks, young voters, Hispanics, East Coast libs, and Democrats in general. Which group will abandon him? Maybe the young’uns, but if they haven’t bailed on him by now, they probably won’t be flipping to the GOP within the next 16 months.
The good news is that this portion of the electorate is not enough to win a general election. He can be competitive(along the lines of Kerry in 2004), but I doubt he can secure enough electoral votes.
Doughboy on July 7, 2011 at 2:17 PM
If it was DC, the approval numbers would be in the 80′s or 90′s.
Count to 10 on July 7, 2011 at 2:18 PM
I pray to God you are right.
jawkneemusic on July 7, 2011 at 2:19 PM
There sure are a lot of brain dead people in this country.
So, who are going to be the new judges for American Idol? Any news on Lindsey Lohan? Will Casey Anthony move to Hollywood?
Knucklehead on July 7, 2011 at 2:20 PM
He only becomes more popular when people get shot? Wow, that’s creepy….
joejm65 on July 7, 2011 at 2:20 PM
Trust me, anytime the Dems are counting on blacks and young voters to deliver them the White House, they lose. They’re notoriously unreliable when it comes to showing up at the polls.
Doughboy on July 7, 2011 at 2:21 PM
Is it too soon to measure the impact of his masterful handling of the Twit-fest yesterday? lol
Fallon on July 7, 2011 at 2:21 PM
He has a built in floor of approval from the takers. The question is will they go to the polls in the number Obama needs. They will if they feel that their entitlements are threatened, otherwise not so much.
txmomof6 on July 7, 2011 at 2:21 PM
Barry can court the left all he wants. They alone will not get him re-elected.
GarandFan on July 7, 2011 at 2:22 PM
FINALLY
txmomof6 on July 7, 2011 at 2:23 PM
New poll just released here in New Hampshire by Channel 9 and UNH…
Epic Fail!
Del Dolemonte on July 7, 2011 at 2:24 PM
So, a manufactured crisis in Oct 2012 will guarantee re-election?
faraway on July 7, 2011 at 2:25 PM
One final cite from the new NH Poll. Remember, NH went for Thurston Howell in 2004 and O’bama in 2008.
Del Dolemonte on July 7, 2011 at 2:25 PM
So he’s at -1% approval???
O-mentum, indeed.
Abby Adams on July 7, 2011 at 2:26 PM
The question answers itself unfortunately…
WitchDoctor on July 7, 2011 at 2:27 PM
That right there is the kiss of death for Mittens in NH.
Knucklehead on July 7, 2011 at 2:28 PM
“Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for lunch. Liberty is a well-armed lamb contesting the vote.”
-Benjamin Franklin
The American Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public’s own money.
portlandon on July 7, 2011 at 2:28 PM
I looked at the Gallup page and I did not see the results divided by Adults and Likely voters.
Maybe I missed it, but if this is from Adults, then Obama is in big trouble, because IMHO voter intensity will be a big factor next year—and for the Obamaniacs I think the thrill is gone.
INC on July 7, 2011 at 2:29 PM
Let’s see how these numbers stack up at the polling booth. People being queried in a phone poll are probably hesitant to admit they made a big freakin’ mistake in 2008, and/or they are afraid of being judged as some sort of racist, bigot, whatever.
But in the anonymous, curtain-covered voting booth where no one can see what they’re doing, how many will quietly say to themselves “Jeebus, I’m not getting suckered by Obama a second time” and vote against him.
Bishop on July 7, 2011 at 2:32 PM
always remember that this a poll of adults. I.e. if your main news source is Oprah, The View, Jon Stewart, GMA…well yeah, he’s doing great…it is the evil corporations and Rs that harm the country
r keller on July 7, 2011 at 2:32 PM
The One is gonna play it safe on the down low ’til election day. Amazing how short peoples memories are. As long as the economy doesn’t get worse because it ain’t gonna get better, Obama will be hard to beat.
JetBoy on July 7, 2011 at 2:34 PM
I think he’s a jackass so it doesn’t matter what he does now.
taney71 on July 7, 2011 at 2:35 PM
There’s one way little Bammie can lock up the election, and that’s coming up with a conservative third party candidate to divide us as Billy Clinton did in 1992. Little Bammie will take 42% and call it a mandate as Billy did.
slickwillie2001 on July 7, 2011 at 2:36 PM
Obama will forever be more popular than his policies, just like Carter is.
Mord on July 7, 2011 at 2:42 PM
gays, lesbians, blacks, uniom members, teachers, jews and hollywood.
DrW on July 7, 2011 at 2:48 PM
Gee, I wonder if the looney bin line-up bunch at MSNBC will be discussing this when they get together for their little self-congratulatory lovefest tonight celebrating 15 years of their misreporting and slanting the news.
pilamaye on July 7, 2011 at 2:48 PM
And don’t forget Paul Krugman, David Brooks and Chris Matthews!
pilamaye on July 7, 2011 at 2:49 PM
46%..still?
therightwinger on July 7, 2011 at 2:51 PM
“What am I, Chopped Liver?”
crr6
Del Dolemonte on July 7, 2011 at 2:53 PM
..the other little tidbit here is that Gallup says 86% of blacks support him. I always thought he was in the mid nineties with his people. This and the union thugs are probably the only groups who will be wetting their pants over him.
The War Planner on July 7, 2011 at 2:53 PM
I still know people who think Obama’s doing a great job.
redeye on July 7, 2011 at 2:54 PM
Still at least 20 points too high.
Schadenfreude on July 7, 2011 at 2:55 PM
There will people who even as they dig there own mass grave and stand before it will still love Obama, even as he pulls trigger. Because to them the Republicans are evil with no caveats they just are and as a Democrat, Obama is not evil no matter what he does.
tjexcite on July 7, 2011 at 3:01 PM
Bull fertilizer
wheelgun on July 7, 2011 at 3:13 PM
You nailed it.
And if there’s even the slightest uptick in the economy, he’s going to absolutely steamroll whoever he’s up against. The general voting public, gets their “news” from the MSM – and we all know what that means.
Amazing how Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Egypt and using navy ships as floating isolation cells, have ZERO affect on his popularity with “Liberals”. Oh how they cried when Bush was at the helm. I can only imagine the cries if he had pulled any of the crap Obozo is.
The more I watch what’s going on in this country, the more obvious it is to me that we’re heading towards becoming at the very least, a Socialist country. And at the median, a Communist one. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Communists begin to openly campaign here sometime soon.
KMC1 on July 7, 2011 at 3:21 PM
The real key missing in this poll is location.
What would Obama’s approval rating be if California, New York, and Illinois were excluded? I suspect he would in the low 30′s.
And this is what the next election is going to look like.
Freddy on July 7, 2011 at 3:35 PM
May Plouffe’s plan go puff.
Schadenfreude on July 7, 2011 at 3:48 PM
Remember when Obama was asked about the arrest of the harvard professor….and it ended in a beer summit?
The C.Anthony story is so much bigger. They should ask Obama. It would be great if he said the jury acted stupidly. Somebody, please ask him.
bridgetown on July 7, 2011 at 3:50 PM
Sure they don’t, David. You go with that.
Missy on July 7, 2011 at 4:02 PM
Larry Sabato says
Watch, by the summer of 2012 it will be at 7.1. Thugs and big business will make it so.
Schadenfreude on July 7, 2011 at 4:05 PM
It is difficult to free fools from the chains they revere.
Voltaire
faol on July 7, 2011 at 4:21 PM
Just got back from the emergency room with a broken finger and now the good news is Obummer still has people voting for him and what a great job he’s doing wrecking the country. They can’t all have graduated from Atlanta public schools so what’s the excuse.
Kissmygrits on July 7, 2011 at 5:58 PM
Bush was always at and slightly above 50% in job approval which is often the magic number to getting re-elected. Obama does not have that and though his numbers are higher than you or I feel he deserves, it takes time for a President’s numbers to truly bottom out.
These are not good number for Obama. He can mobilize the base in the predictably blue states of New York and California, but he could be playing a lot of defense in the swing states and even the upper midwest states which seem to be souring on him.
Daemonocracy on July 7, 2011 at 6:07 PM
If I were a Dem Congresscritter, I’d get some body armor come election time…
trigon on July 7, 2011 at 6:09 PM
One word. Gallup. Just consider the source of this poll or any poll coming from the media. They’re padding the numbers. My guess is…it’s far worse than is being reported.
capejasmine on July 7, 2011 at 6:11 PM
BREAKING NEWS!
If Economy improves….OJesus gets a second term….America goes before the Economic Death Panel.
Film at 11.
PappyD61 on July 7, 2011 at 6:21 PM
Isn’t the omentum that “fatty apron” that surrounds your belly, and is tissue thin in slender people but if fed becomes a huge waste of ugly useless hanging fat that constantly demands more, causing the rest of the body to work harder?
Just asking.
Daisy_WI on July 7, 2011 at 6:39 PM
If Obama is at 46%-47% come November 2012, count on 4 more years.
xblade on July 7, 2011 at 8:44 PM
The media own the dopes of this nation. GWB couldnt hit 40% and was 10 times the President, at his worst, than Obama is on his best 10 minutes.
Obama should be sitting around 25% after the complete incompetence, corruption, and out of touch nature with which he has fumbled through the last 2 1/2 years.
People are enraged at the Casey Anthony verdict. That makes a lot more sense than virtually half the country supporting the performance of this President.
Obama is the epitome of an empty suit.
alecj on July 8, 2011 at 1:32 AM