Boehner: 50-50 shot at debt-ceiling deal in next 48 hours

posted at 12:30 pm on July 7, 2011 by Ed Morrissey

Maybe all of those rumors of dealmaking on Capitol Hill were more than just White House spin designed to make Barack Obama look reasonable.  Either that, or John Boehner knows how to raise the bid in high-stakes poker games.  According to the National Journal, the House Speaker told his caucus to be prepared for a debt ceiling deal as early as Saturday:

House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, informed fellow House Republicans on Thursday that the chances of congressional leaders and President Obama reaching a tentative debt-ceiling deal within 48 hours are “maybe 50-50.”

That prognosis from Boehner was relayed by several House Republicans as they left a morning briefing with the speaker — and later confirmed by a GOP leadership aide. Boehner and other Republican and Democratic congressional leaders are set to continue negotiations at the White House on Thursday on a deal to raise the nation’s $14.3 trillion debt ceiling.

Two members walked out of the meeting — and onto the record — with even or better odds on their mind.  Peter King (R-NY) told NJ that he thinks “it’s better than 50-50,” while Billy Long (R-MO) stuck to even odds.  Two others, Vern Buchanan (R-FL) and Trent Franks (R-AZ), also insisted that Boehner told them that the GOP remains uninterested in raising taxes.

Has progress been made?  Obama wanted to leave the impression that he wants to “go big” and tackle entitlement reform, although the extent of that desire remains to be seen.  The White House has still declined to publish a specific reform plan for either Social Security or Medicare, but if Obama wants to go to $4 trillion in cuts over the next decade, there is no other way to do it.  Boehner’s insistence on opposition to “raising taxes” may or may not preclude the option of closing “loopholes” in the tax code, especially in the corporate tax, a demand from Democrats.  Republicans might agree to that as part of an overhaul and flattening of the corporate tax code, but that becomes even more complicated as a deal sweetener depending on which “loopholes” get targeted.

If progress has been made, it will boost markets, but it will increase pressure for a deal, too.  If Boehner is attempting some counterspin, it may be to force Obama and the Democrats to deal in good faith rather than just make general and ambiguous statements about compromise.  One indication might be this warning from Franks:

Franks said it is his understanding there are clear indications a proposed deal was in the works, and that “I got the sense that, this July 18 work period [recess], that members should carefully consider their scheduling for signs of flexibility.”

Sounds like Franks is anticipating an extended session  or a quick return to Capitol Hill from a recess.  Given the time needed to mark up a deal, the 48-hour timeline isn’t a final chance at making that work, but it’s not far off, either.

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tired of this subject. is it 2012 yet? we need CHANGE…

Drunk Report on July 7, 2011 at 12:34 PM

The GOP is gonna screw us again.

MadDogF on July 7, 2011 at 12:36 PM

Daily, I keep my hopes up that the r’s will hang tough and not cave. Daily, my hopes are fading right before my eyes. Rush is talking about this now and said bho is in big trouble and has little he can do if the r’s don’t cave. Please, for a change r’s think of our Republic.
L

letget on July 7, 2011 at 12:39 PM

And remember, the federal government is allocating/budgeting so much $$$$ that they can’t even spend it all. Yet, if we cut spending, grandma will be pushed off of a cliff by private jet owners, or something, even though grandma is fully fluid and owns her house free and clear.

joeindc44 on July 7, 2011 at 12:39 PM

100% chance that Boehner caves. Then we can all cry together.

search4truth on July 7, 2011 at 12:39 PM

Drunk Report on July 7, 2011 at 12:34 PM

Thread-winning home run by the lead-off hitter!

rhbandsp on July 7, 2011 at 12:40 PM

Will they have to pass it before we can know what’s in it?

Dusty on July 7, 2011 at 12:40 PM

Obama’s deficit commission came up with a plan to reduce deficits by $4 trillion over 10 years. If this is what he is now shooting for we could have saved a lot of time if he hadn’t rejected the commission’s recommendations earlier this year.

Mark1971 on July 7, 2011 at 12:40 PM

Why should we be confiscating any of the profits a business makes? Just tax the dividends.

Count to 10 on July 7, 2011 at 12:41 PM

Sounds like someone caved….

Kyl: Republicans Agree to Revenue Increases in Deficit Talks

Knucklehead on July 7, 2011 at 12:43 PM

Can’t wait to learn how we’ll be screwed, again…

changer1701 on July 7, 2011 at 12:43 PM

Let’s all grab some chairs here on the deck of the Titanic and rearrange them!

Rightyismighty on July 7, 2011 at 12:44 PM

“The GOP will betray you”.

Those idiots are looking solely at 2012, any decision they make will be to protect themselves at the voting booth.

Time to expand the veggie garden and learn to make my own boots.

Bishop on July 7, 2011 at 12:45 PM

the House Speaker told his caucus to be prepared for a debt ceiling deal as early as Saturday:

Wow, back to the old pass it while everyone is sleeping BS? I guess Boehner took the wrong lessons from the healthcare debate.

astonerii on July 7, 2011 at 12:45 PM

Yes, anytime Boehner rushes to the mics and breathlessly hawks a deal, you know the GOP is waving the white flag again.

Boehner needs to be primaried. Cantor amd McCarthy too.

We need to CUT the corporate tax rate, NOT tighten it up.

WTF?

rightwingyahooo on July 7, 2011 at 12:45 PM

Any “deal” will be Boehner giving away everything.

tetriskid on July 7, 2011 at 12:45 PM

Seriously, screw you GOP.

tetriskid on July 7, 2011 at 12:46 PM

The GOP will Betray You.

portlandon on July 7, 2011 at 12:46 PM

The cry-baby speaker will cave. Projecting savings over the next decade will do nothing. In 2 years they can go on yet another spending spree……

kringeesmom on July 7, 2011 at 12:47 PM

Kyl: Republicans Agree to Revenue Increases in Deficit Talks
Knucklehead on July 7, 2011 at 12:43 PM

Whew…that’s a relief. Here I thought taxes were going to be hiked while in reality the effers are simply going to “increase revenues”.

Bishop on July 7, 2011 at 12:48 PM

50:50 = same as coin flip. Boehner thinks this is useful information?

a capella on July 7, 2011 at 12:48 PM

If there’s no deal it falls on Obama and treasury to make the cuts, right? Why deal? Tell America the truth–the President waited too long to engage. Little less golf and a lot more action next time. Ride the crazy wave to next November.

txhsmom on July 7, 2011 at 12:48 PM

If Obama reformed Medicare and reduced the deficit, he would be re-elected in a landslide and be hailed as our greatest President.

I don’t think he’s that smart.

faraway on July 7, 2011 at 12:49 PM

MadDogF on July 7, 2011 at 12:36 PM

This.

mwdiver on July 7, 2011 at 12:49 PM

Boehner snatches defeat from the jaws of victory and gives Obama much Mana for 2012 election use; KY sales increase, unexpectedly !

Sandybourne on July 7, 2011 at 12:52 PM

We all know the outcome. We know it cold:

the GOP will fold;
the GOP will promise the tea party “We’ll get em the next time;”
Fox will join CNN and the other alphabet networks to proclaim a tremendous victory for Boehner;
Cons and tea partiers will weep and moan;
Cons and tea partiers will vote for the GOP and issue vague threats about what happens next time

Its like being forced to watch the same dumb mellowdrama over and over on tv.

james23 on July 7, 2011 at 12:53 PM

Have a feeling Obi is going to accept the Bowles plan. Then he will take credit for everything and the Repubs won’t be able to challenge him on spending anymore. Can you say welfare reform? This fig leaf will get him reelected.

andy85719 on July 7, 2011 at 12:54 PM

In Boehner/Kyl world, it’s January 21, 2009.

angryed on July 7, 2011 at 12:54 PM

Start calling their offices in DC and remind them that we are the ones that put them there and if they drop the ball on this, prepare for retirement in 2012

ConservativePartyNow on July 7, 2011 at 12:54 PM

Boehner’s dog and pony show is just about over, eh? I think Beohner aught to dress up as a court jester just to make it official; let the Democrats manipulate his strings and put on a great show, it’ll be more entertaining at least. I hope he fails to pass whatever corrupt backroom deal he’s formulating with Obama and that we can hold the line on the debt ceiling. The backroom deal combined with the blatantly obvious nature of this dog and pony show indicates to me that Boehner and the Democrats are far to cozy, and that also explains the pitiful results comprised mostly of rhetorical propaganda.

FloatingRock on July 7, 2011 at 12:57 PM

What the GOP needs, what it neeeeeeeds is a bunch of noodley, limp-wristed, go along to get along types in Congress to reach across the aisle to the demorats and offer to lick their boots.

Mike Castle 2012 – “Reform the party from the inside”

Bishop on July 7, 2011 at 12:58 PM

I thought these talks weren’t worth having? If Obama gives in on this, he will bolster his re-election chances. That makes me nervous…

JAM on July 7, 2011 at 12:59 PM

Cut everything by 20%

That should be the only deal.

joeindc44 on July 7, 2011 at 12:59 PM

This means R’s must retake the Senate. Make Obama a lame duck right out of the shoot in ’13.

JAM on July 7, 2011 at 1:00 PM

Thank God for RINO traitors to the Republic eh, fellows?

Soon, we can cave on immigration just like we’re about to cave on spending, and then we’ll REALLY be set for some prosperity!!

Three cheers for the Gee oh Pee!!!

rightwingyahooo on July 7, 2011 at 1:00 PM

Cut everything by 20%

That should be the only deal.

joeindc44 on July 7, 2011 at 12:59 PM

No, cut everything by 42%, as THAT is the amount of our deficit.

rightwingyahooo on July 7, 2011 at 1:01 PM

On TV again.

andy85719 on July 7, 2011 at 1:02 PM

I agree JAM. Makes me nervous.

andy85719 on July 7, 2011 at 1:03 PM

What’s funny about Boehner’s and Obama’s sinister backroom deal is that they’re both smokers, so it probably is, quite literally, a sinister smoke filled backroom deal.

I say sinister because it is. This congress can’t bind future congresses. The 10 year plan or whatever is a sham, allowing them to multiply whatever they cut by a factor of 10 or whatever they decide on. What the heck, they might as well make it a hundred years and cut tens of trillions for all the good it will do aside from it’s propaganda purposes.

FloatingRock on July 7, 2011 at 1:04 PM

If there’s no deal it falls on Obama and treasury to make the cuts, right? Why deal?
txhsmom on July 7, 2011 at 12:48 PM

Because you don’t ACTUALLY believe that Obama will do that, even if it does fall upon him, do you? I mean, do you REALLY believe that?

Remember we’ve already had a couple weeks of theorizing from lefties that Obama can just unilaterally raise the debt ceiling simply upon his own whimsy.

He’s the “vote present” President. If it actually does come down to him, he’ll find SOME way to kick the can down the road.

Vyce on July 7, 2011 at 1:05 PM

This means R’s must retake the Senate. Make Obama a lame duck right out of the shoot in ’13.

JAM on July 7, 2011 at 1:00 PM

Well hey. Maybe that will be a reality, so long as you “true conservatives” give us more Marco Rubios and less CODs / Angles

Vyce on July 7, 2011 at 1:07 PM

Well hey. Maybe that will be a reality, so long as you “true conservatives” give us more Marco Rubios and less CODs / Angles

Vyce on July 7, 2011 at 1:07 PM

If you guys give us fewer “true moderates” you got yourself a deal.

darwin on July 7, 2011 at 1:12 PM

Office of the Speaker
Phone: (202) 225-0600

Deposit 2¢ …

RedPepper on July 7, 2011 at 1:14 PM

I say give the Republicans a chance. Let’s wait and see what happens.

darwin on July 7, 2011 at 1:14 PM

Well hey. Maybe that will be a reality, so long as you “true conservatives” give us more Marco Rubios and less CODs / Angles

Vyce on July 7, 2011 at 1:07 PM

Why? Wouldn’t YOU vote for the republican conservative against the democrat liberal?!?!

cjtony97 on July 7, 2011 at 1:14 PM

Boehner: 50-50 shot at debt-ceiling deal in next 48 hours

110% chance of GOP Cave in 48 hours.

PappyD61 on July 7, 2011 at 1:20 PM

“This president is looking to usurp congressional oversight to find a way to get it done without us. My position is that is an impeachable act from my perspective. There are a lot of things people say, ‘Are you going to impeach the president over that?’ — No. But this? This is catastrophic. This jeopardizes the credibility of our nation if one man can usurp the entire system set up by our founding fathers over something this significant,” Rep. Tim Scott (R-SC) said.

ConservativePartyNow on July 7, 2011 at 1:21 PM

Throw them all out in 2012. It’s the only way they will get the message. The so-called independents are not independent at all and are the biggest fools.

Schadenfreude on July 7, 2011 at 1:21 PM

I say give the Republicans a chance. Let’s wait and see what happens.

darwin on July 7, 2011 at 1:14 PM

We already gave them a chance and they blew it. They promised to cut $100 billion, which was a lie, but instead of owning up to the lie Boehner released a sham bill instead that pretended to cut $38 billion or whatever that actually didn’t cut much if anything at all.

FloatingRock on July 7, 2011 at 1:21 PM

Boehner: 50-50 shot at debt-ceiling deal in next 48 hours

110% chance of GOPProgressive Controlled GOP Cave in 48 hours.

PappyD61 on July 7, 2011 at 1:20 PM

FIM (Fixed it myself).

PappyD61 on July 7, 2011 at 1:21 PM

The land is in dire need of 1-2 leaders, serious fathers, with steely ones, alas…

Schadenfreude on July 7, 2011 at 1:22 PM

We already gave them a chance and they blew it. They promised to cut $100 billion, which was a lie, but instead of owning up to the lie Boehner released a sham bill instead that pretended to cut $38 billion or whatever that actually didn’t cut much if anything at all.

FloatingRock on July 7, 2011 at 1:21 PM

Read JE Dyers piece.

darwin on July 7, 2011 at 1:25 PM

Either that, or John Boehner knows how to raise the bid in high-stakes poker games.

Bwahahahahahha. The only game being played is on us. We lose.

SouthernGent on July 7, 2011 at 1:29 PM

So what this means is that a) we’re going to get tax increases, and b) any spending cuts will be proven – like the last bunch – to be actually significantly less than promised, and effectively none.

F@#$ you, Obama.
F@#$ you, Democrats.
F@#$ you, Republicans.

Midas on July 7, 2011 at 1:32 PM

The White House has still declined to publish a specific reform plan for either Social Security or Medicare

they have no specific plan

ALL TALKIE, no action….

cmsinaz on July 7, 2011 at 1:35 PM

MadDogF on July 7, 2011 at 12:36 PM

eeyore alert in full mode

cmsinaz on July 7, 2011 at 1:36 PM

If Boehner screws this up again, I predict a 100% chance this will be his last term in office and he will lose his primary.

evilned on July 7, 2011 at 1:37 PM

ok fine, I agree, let’s cut it 50%

joeindc44 on July 7, 2011 at 1:38 PM

all the libs have their talking points on the lsm

deep cuts to medicare
corporate jet owners

ad nauseum….

cmsinaz on July 7, 2011 at 1:43 PM

The same John Boehner who pledged to “repeal and replace” ObamaCare?

bloviator on July 7, 2011 at 1:44 PM

Team Obama’s 2012 victory plan

First Plouffe suggested, Obama has an opportunity to improve his standing among independent voters — many of whom deserted the Democrats in the 2010 midterm election — by working with Republicans toward bipartisan deficit-reduction measures.

faraway on July 7, 2011 at 1:58 PM

I got a qk thought… What exactly is being cut? This years budget? Next years budget (There is no budget)? Budget Allocation for the next decade. There is no such thing.

antisocial on July 7, 2011 at 1:59 PM

What exactly is being cut?

antisocial on July 7, 2011 at 1:59 PM

Tea bags

faraway on July 7, 2011 at 2:03 PM

“Do not surrender the greatness of America through the complacency of contemporary expectations.
- Lenny McCalister

Mcguyver on July 7, 2011 at 2:07 PM

Never trust a Democrat. They are all filthy lying scum.

Adjoran on July 7, 2011 at 2:08 PM

Tell me again why Boner is Speaker of the House.

stenwin77 on July 7, 2011 at 2:08 PM

The Republicans are getting shafted. If it were that easy, it would have been done already. Since we don’t know what the deal is we have no way of knowing how they’re lying and how they’re shafting the country, but you can bet they’re shafting the country.

Vote Palin and only be called a racist one more time.

bflat879 on July 7, 2011 at 2:19 PM

Never trust a Democrat. They are all filthy lying scum.

Adjoran on July 7, 2011 at 2:08 PM

I guess we’re waiting to see how well this description fits the Republicans as well.

Midas on July 7, 2011 at 2:21 PM

bflat879 on July 7, 2011 at 2:19 PM

If elections were the solution anymore, we’d not be having a conversation about why the last election has resulted in a situation where the House GOP is likely to fold.

Elections simply don’t matter anymore.

I take that back; elections matter to Democrats. When they win, they get everything they want afterwards. When they lose, they get 99% of what they want afterwards.

Midas on July 7, 2011 at 2:25 PM

When they win, they get everything they want afterwards. When they lose, they get 99% of what they want afterwards.

This is Peggy’s yardstick. If we get any closer to the end, we’ll fall off.

faraway on July 7, 2011 at 2:27 PM

I got a qk thought… What exactly is being cut? This years budget? Next years budget (There is no budget)? Budget Allocation for the next decade. There is no such thing.

antisocial on July 7, 2011 at 1:59 PM

Good question.

I suspect that the GOP is going to get some cuts to the 2012 budget (worthless promises to do so since there isn’t a 2012 budget) and more worthless promises about future budgets etc all in exchange for an “immediate” raise in taxes.

gwelf on July 7, 2011 at 4:00 PM

What are the odds that the GOP are going to agree to gut the military budget as part of this deal?

Beats me why they’re still holding these talks in private- don’t all the representatives of the people of the United States of America deserve to know what’s going on and what deals are being struck as part of this bargaining process?

Jay Mac on July 7, 2011 at 5:56 PM

Ugh, I now have 0% confidence in the GOP leadership. Bringing into the negotiations Pelosi and Durban just sealed that deal. Bill Krystal on FOX News tonight says GOP will cave and mentions $600 Billion will be cut from DoD. San Fran Nan to have big chit-chat with the O tomorrow. Guess O will tell her to back off because she’ll get it all back after he’s re-elected. Cave-in restarts on Sunday (so much for 48 hours!). Don’t you just love those ‘closed-door’ confabs! Last hope is to pressure the Reps in the House to hold firm and rebuff Cantor and Boehner.

Bob in VA on July 7, 2011 at 7:22 PM

Cry baby will screw us and BHO will be re-elected because the right will be pissed. Get ready, that’s what will happen.

JohnnyMojo on July 7, 2011 at 7:32 PM

The same John Boehner who pledged to “repeal and replace” ObamaCare?

bloviator

Boehner can’t repeal and replace Obamacare. Having said that, the House did vote to repeal Obamacare. Unfortunately, the Senate, held by the dems, did not. Until that changes, Obamacare is going nowhere. And after the Supreme Court rules it Constitutional, it won’t go anywhere no matte what. So, basically, it’s here to stay.

xblade on July 7, 2011 at 7:49 PM

Then we bump the debt ceiling, Ed. $4 trillion over a decade is NEVER EVER going to happen unless it happens all at once. $400 billion a year is chickenfeed for healthy chickens compared to what is needed.

Any promises of a decade long spending cut are smoke and mirrors. Next year’s politicians will start systematically ignoring the cuts and increasing spending. They will do it no matter what we do. But if we get the $1.4 trillion THIS year and a Constitutional amendment with an 18.5% GDP budget cap we have a hope and a prayer of regaining our competitive advantage.

If we roll in tort reform (loser pays all, loser’s lawyer pays if loser cannot) and open shop legislation the rest of the world can sit back and watch the liftoff of the American economy.

{^_^}

herself on July 8, 2011 at 11:16 PM