ADP projects 157K private-sector jobs added in June

posted at 10:45 am on July 7, 2011 by Ed Morrissey

The Obama administration could dearly use some good news on the economic front, and according to ADP, they may get some tomorrow.  The nation’s largest payroll-management firm projects an increase in private-sector employment of 157,000, a big jump from ADP’s fairly accurate prediction of May job creation (via National Journal):

Employment in the U.S. nonfarm private business sector rose 157,000 from May to June on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the latest ADP National Employment Report ® released  today.  The estimated advance in employment from April to May was revised down, but only slightly, to 36,000 from the initially reported 38,000.

Today’s ADP National Employment Report estimates employment in the service-providing sector rose by 130,000 in June, nearly three times faster than in May, marking 18 consecutive months of employment gains.  Employment in the goods-producing sector rose 27,000 in June, more than reversing the decline of 10,000 in May. Manufacturing employment rose 24,000 in June, which has seen growth in seven of the past eight months.  These figures are above the consensus forecast for today’s report and for Friday’s jobs number from the BLS.  Payroll employment growth at this pace usually implies a steady unemployment rate, perhaps even a modest decline.  June’s figures suggest that the economic recovery, which slipped in the spring, might have found new traction in early summer.

That seems a little too optimistic, considering the economic indicators from May and April.  Goods orders trended down, auto sales tapered off, and the level of weekly jobless claims hasn’t really budged in three months.  Today’s report from the BLS shows a slight drop in claims, but still firmly within the Q2 range:

In the week ending July 2, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 418,000, a decrease of 14,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 432,000. The 4-week moving average was 424,750, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week’s revised average of 427,750.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.9 percent for the week ending June 25, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week’s revised rate of 3.0 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending June 25 was 3,681,000, a decrease of 43,000 from the preceding week’s revised level of 3,724,000. The 4-week oving average was 3,705,250, a decrease of 3,750 from the preceding week’s revised average of 3,709,000.

Reuters reports it as mildly good news, but also notes the unreliability of reports around the holiday:

New U.S. claims for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, government data showed on Thursday, but distortions associated with the holiday weekend and a government shutdown in one state made it difficult to get a clear view of the labor market.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 14,000 to a seasonally adjusted 418,000, the Labor Department said. …

A Labor Department official said given Monday’s Independence Day holiday, California and Virginia had provided partial estimates. In addition, the department had to make estimates for four states and territories.

The data also included about 2,500 claims from state employees in Minnesota following the shutdown on Thursday of the state government.

We’ll probably see an upward revision to this data in the next week or two, but we can also expect this week’s number (announced next week) to be artificially low thanks to the Monday holiday.  Even with all of those caveats, the level didn’t drop appreciably from the ~425K range we’ve seen since early April, when claims rose from the ~380K level of Q1.

For that reason, and because the ADP report isn’t a perfect indicator by any means, I’m going to guess that actual job growth in tomorrow’s number will be closer to 90K (Bloomberg predicts 100K), and that the unemployment rate will bump slightly upward to 9.2%.  What do you expect tomorrow’s rate will be?  Take the poll:

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157,000 would be a vast improvement over May’s “bump in the road”, but it’s still mediocre job growth if we’re ever hoping to get out of this rut of 9+% unemployment.

Doughboy on July 7, 2011 at 10:48 AM

Morning in America!

faraway on July 7, 2011 at 10:49 AM

I don’t know what the June numbers will be in mid-July, but I’ll put money on “economists being shocked” at what the numbers will be by late-July.

TugboatPhil on July 7, 2011 at 10:52 AM

I’d vote in the poll, but one critical category is missing:

Whatever Osama Obama wants the number to be.

The Traitor-in-Chief is a serial liar, and his regime does his bidding.

MrScribbler on July 7, 2011 at 10:53 AM

Advance indicator of good news?

Hardly…

PatriotRider on July 7, 2011 at 10:53 AM

Hey, Ed, when will Minnesota’s government shutdown show up in the unemployment rate?

Dusty on July 7, 2011 at 10:55 AM

157,000 jobs – in the same month legal immigration was 150,000. So a net 7,000 jobs for, what, 15 million unemployed?

Weak.

Rebar on July 7, 2011 at 10:55 AM

Watch the unemployment number to mysteriously drop to 5.5 tomorrow. Obambi will say they created 10 million jobs in a weak. Organizing for Ozombi really needed the staff.

andy85719 on July 7, 2011 at 10:58 AM

The real question is, will it be “unexpected”?

SoRight on July 7, 2011 at 10:59 AM

How many were in Texas?

Wethal on July 7, 2011 at 11:04 AM

The answers available on the poll don’t include the ever-popular, “meaningless, because the number is substantially manipulated.”

cthulhu on July 7, 2011 at 11:05 AM

So, more people died that had to be replaced?

unlisted on July 7, 2011 at 11:06 AM

It will be interesting to see the jobs breakout by region. If the number of new jobs is weighted heavily towards Texas and other right-to-work states, it’s at best a minor PR boost for Obama, because the folks out of work in othe states, including a lot of swing states, are still going to be out of work.

jon1979 on July 7, 2011 at 11:08 AM

So, prices at the gas pump increase Friday afternoon?

bloviator on July 7, 2011 at 11:10 AM

Hey, Ed, when will Minnesota’s government shutdown show up in the unemployment rate?

Dusty on July 7, 2011 at 10:55 AM

Good question, I was wondering the same thing.

PatriotRider on July 7, 2011 at 11:11 AM

Picking season.

Limerick on July 7, 2011 at 11:12 AM

No change

cmsinaz on July 7, 2011 at 11:13 AM

Picking season.

Limerick on July 7, 2011 at 11:12 AM

This.

Seasonal work. Nothing substantial.

portlandon on July 7, 2011 at 11:13 AM

I remember when 4.5% unemployment…..
……….over 200,000 jobs created a month….
…………….250 billion deficit…..

was considered by democrats to be “failed” economy…

Now over 9% unemployment….
………….creating 100,000 jobs a month
………………and a 1.6 trillion dollar deficit is
“Great News!!”

“Obama’s AWESOME!!!!”

Baxter Greene on July 7, 2011 at 11:17 AM

Everybody focuses on the crooked and cooked method of unemployment counting that the Feds use. But what is real unemployment at these days? Is it still around 18%?

NotCoach on July 7, 2011 at 11:18 AM

What will be more interesting to see is the non-seasonally adjusted numbers. Wasn’t it last year when the usually expected employment seeking pool expansion as summer approached didn’t materialize ? The economy and job situation was seen as SO bad people that would normally try and find summer work thought “Why bother?”

Either way Obama is screwed. If a whole bunch of people re-enter the labor pool, they won’t have found jobs and unemployment goes up. If they DIDN’T, then the economy continues to be so bad, millions of people are just sitting on the sidelines.

Unless and until there is a monthly employment report where 300,000 new jobs are created, this economy is going nowhere.

deadrody on July 7, 2011 at 11:21 AM

Somehow I do not trust ANY numbers that comes out of dc! I don’t they ever give the true facts and will revise the numbers they do give. I went with no change.
L

letget on July 7, 2011 at 11:22 AM

We are still 8 million jobs down in this recovery. We haven’t even dealt with the proposed tax increases which will put more people in the stree.

Oil Can on July 7, 2011 at 11:22 AM

Under a Republican president and Congress majority, the headline would have been

“Significant number of Americans Under-employed”

Sir Napsalot on July 7, 2011 at 11:23 AM

The long march toward the East Germanization of America continues, one part of which is the radical alteration of what constitutes “good news.” Obama wants us all to feel so beaten down that any upward blip or burp drops us to our knees in benediction. He wants us to forget the dream of America and settle for scraps and mere survival.

rrpjr on July 7, 2011 at 11:23 AM

Everybody focuses on the crooked and cooked method of unemployment counting that the Feds use. But what is real unemployment at these days? Is it still around 18%?

NotCoach on July 7, 2011 at 11:18 AM

The offical U-6 stands at 15.8%. The “real real” unemployment is around 23%.

Rebar on July 7, 2011 at 11:25 AM

Last month the U6 was 15.8%, down just 0.3% from May 2010 when it was 16.1%

deadrody on July 7, 2011 at 11:26 AM

The answers available on the poll don’t include the ever-popular, “meaningless, because the number is substantially manipulated.”

cthulhu on July 7, 2011 at 11:05 AM

+1

The “reported” gov’t number in my area (SW FL) is about 12%, but still meaningless. Actual funemployment is way higher, especially when one considers underemployment.

ornery_independent on July 7, 2011 at 11:28 AM

We’re 8 million jobs down and the Democrat answer is coveting. Niiiice. Who knew that breaking the 10th commandment could be a party platform.

Mojave Mark on July 7, 2011 at 11:47 AM

I don’t think one report is going to make any difference to unemployment numbers. Unless lot of folks drop off the tracker due to extended unemployment.

antisocial on July 7, 2011 at 11:48 AM

BTW, the main caveat with these employment numbers is “seasonally adjusted”: May and June are big hiring months (graduating students, etc.), so there are large seasonal adjustments to the raw figure.

A small error in the seasonal adjustment can shift the numbers either way rather easily.

novakyu on July 7, 2011 at 11:59 AM

157,000 would be a vast improvement over May’s “bump in the road”, but it’s still mediocre job growth if we’re ever hoping to get out of this rut of 9+% unemployment.

Doughboy on July 7, 2011 at 10:48 AM

The long march toward the East Germanization of America continues, one part of which is the radical alteration of what constitutes “good news.” Obama wants us all to feel so beaten down that any upward blip or burp drops us to our knees in benediction. He wants us to forget the dream of America and settle for scraps and mere survival.

rrpjr on July 7, 2011 at 11:23 AM

It’s the new “normal,” dontcha know. Now get in line, that toilet paper and government cheese isn’t going to magically appear in your pantry.

iurockhead on July 7, 2011 at 12:10 PM

Morning Mourning in America!

faraway on July 7, 2011 at 10:49 AM

..FIFY.

The War Planner on July 7, 2011 at 12:31 PM

Interesting vote distribution. It’s almost gussian, except for all the people voting for the highest number.

Count to 10 on July 7, 2011 at 12:31 PM

Where’s the liberal media to sniff -”yes, but they aren’t quality jobs” as they did during the administration of President George W. Bush?

slickwillie2001 on July 7, 2011 at 12:32 PM

How is that good news? You need at least 250,000 per month to be consider good, IMO.

therightwinger on July 7, 2011 at 1:00 PM

I bet their next report headline contains the words unprecedented or unexpectedly– and not in a good way.

ZeeMI on July 7, 2011 at 2:08 PM

I thought the girl at the McDonalds counter looked new.

Clink on July 7, 2011 at 12:44 PM

I was wondering too if this was the McDonalds hiring bubble trickling into the system. They were ‘hired’ earlier, but had to wait for school to end before being processed into payroll and showing up at ADP.

slickwillie2001 on July 7, 2011 at 2:23 PM

Those aren’t aerospace, engineering and hospital jobs. It’s summer time. Even if the economy makes it a lousy summer for business, the thousands of resorts, beaches, lakes, arcades, camps, movie theaters, etc. etc. have to be ready. If it is a slow summer most of those jobs will be gone by August. If anything, I would bet that number is low for a typical June. Once again the media and government makes us out to be fools.

peacenprosperity on July 7, 2011 at 2:28 PM

157K jobs is NOT good news. It takes 200K jobs just to tread water, to absorb new workers coming into the workforce. Anything less than 200K is still resulting in a decrease in workforce participation.

crosspatch on July 7, 2011 at 3:58 PM

The latest from the HR/Payroll branch of the Ministry of Information.

gbear on July 7, 2011 at 5:02 PM

215,000.

xblade on July 7, 2011 at 8:09 PM