Oh my: Bachmann within single digits of Romney in New Hampshire?

posted at 7:12 pm on July 6, 2011 by Allahpundit

Old theory: Mitt Romney really doesn’t want to have to face Perry or Palin in this race. New theory: Mitt Romney really needs Perry and/or Palin to run to divide tea partiers and halt Bachmann’s ascent.

Her net favorable rating is now +40, up 20 points in just two months. In New Hampshire.

When PPP polled New Hampshire in April Michele Bachmann was stuck at 4%. She’s gained 14 points over the last three months and now finds herself within single digits of Mitt Romney. Romney continues to lead the way in the state with 25% to 18% for Bachmann, 11% for Sarah Palin, 9% for Ron Paul, 7% for Rick Perry and Herman Cain, 6% for Jon Huntsman and Tim Pawlenty, and 4% for Newt Gingrich.

Bachmann’s surge in New Hampshire is being built on the back of the Tea Party. Among voters identifying themselves as members of that movement she’s leading the way at 25% with Palin and Romney tying for second at 16%, and Cain also placing in double digits at 11%. Only 33% of Republican primary voters in the state identify themselves as Tea Partiers though and with the remaining folks Romney’s way ahead with 33% to 13% for Bachmann, and 10% for Huntsman and Paul.

Romney’s starting to show some signs of weakness in New Hampshire. His support is down 12 points from 37% on the iteration of our April poll that didn’t include Mike Huckabee or Donald Trump. His favorability numbers are headed in the wrong direction as well. He’s dropped a net 18 points from +49 at 68/19 to +31 at 60/29. He’s certainly still the front runner in the state but he’s not looking as inevitable as he did a few months ago.

Another poll from the University of New Hampshire has Romney ahead by a comfortable, more realistic 23-point margin, but even in that case, Bachmann’s crept into second place with 12 percent. I’m dying to know what she raised for the quarter to see how her haul compares to his, but her team’s holding off on releasing the numbers until July 15. His own numbers are both better and worse than they look. Better, in the sense that if you include the money raised by his super PAC, his quarterly take is closer to $30 million than it is to $18.25 million. And worse, in the sense that not long ago Team Mitt was hoping to raise — wait for it — $50 million in the first six months of 2011. No one’s going to hit him with the “underperformer” narrative until New Hampshire turns competitive, but it’s out there in the water. Lurking. With just a fin visible above the surface…

As for Pawlenty, he pulls just three percent in UNH’s poll (the same as Jon Huntsman, who’s nearly without a pulse in the new Gallup) and six percent in PPP’s poll while trailing Romney in a hypothetical head-to-head contest … by 34 points. Things suddenly look so bleak that T-Paw’s campaign co-chair has begun to lower expectations in Iowa, insisting that Bachmann will be “very hard to beat” there even though until recently the state was a cornerstone of his strategy to propel past Romney. Actual quote: “She’s got hometown appeal, she’s got ideological appeal, and, I hate to say it, but she’s got a little sex appeal too.” Ugh. Exit quotation from HuffPo’s Pawlenty premortem postmortem: “How does the sixth place candidate in the Iowa poll all of a sudden find support? Having been here so often, if folks haven’t decided to support him yet, will they now? … [It’s a] very tense and stressful situation over in Urbandale right now.”

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

Comment pages: 1 2

Don’t you know that you are a shooting star
Don’t you know
Don’t you know
Don’t you know that you are a shooting star
And all the world will love you just as long
As long as you are

unseen on July 6, 2011 at 9:34 PM

xblade on July 6, 2011 at 9:31 PM

ROFL….yeah those american citizens abroad wouldn’t be funneling any foreign money or any thing.

unseen on July 6, 2011 at 9:36 PM

unseen on July 6, 2011 at 9:31 PM

Well, Huck might endorse T-Paw just to put pressure on Mitt…If I were to bet, I’d wager that he will wait until much later to endorse a candidate and endorse whoever emerges as the anti-Mitt…

Gohawgs on July 6, 2011 at 9:36 PM

There have been several:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_bachmann_vs_obama-1941.html

Compare and contrast:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_palin_vs_obama-1169.html

Dreadnought on July 6, 2011 at 9:26 PM

Uh-huh. Now visualize if you will the media treatment Bachmann gets if it comes down to her and Obama. Where do you think her negatives go? Through the roof. They’ve already thrown everything at Palin.

ddrintn on July 6, 2011 at 9:31 PM

They’ve thrown plenty at Bachmann too. And the point is: the fact that there have been several Obama vs. Bachmann polls shoots down the original poster’s…..

Pro-Palin Conspiracy Theory #88,421:

There haven’t been any polls for Obama vs. Bachmann, because the MSM is propping her up to be the Anti-Palin, or the Mitt-Stalking-Horse, and any polls would make Bachmann look bad.>

Wrong’em boyo.

Again.

Dreadnought on July 6, 2011 at 9:40 PM

Yore stooopid.

Really, this discussion is quite juvenile.

alwaysfiredup on July 6, 2011 at 8:44 PM

Tell that to unseen, promachus, and the others that have been the loudest in tearing down Michelle Bachmann with tactics that are usually the tools of the hard left.

MadisonConservative on July 6, 2011 at 9:41 PM

Old theory: Mitt Romney really doesn’t want to have to face Perry or Palin in this race. New theory: Mitt Romney really needs Perry and/or Palin to run to divide tea partiers and halt Bachmann’s ascent.

Keep trying.

MJBrutus on July 6, 2011 at 9:42 PM

KP, the VOE on that subject? I highly doubt the globe trotter has a zinc deficiency…

Gohawgs on July 6, 2011 at 9:14 PM

BOB………..

…….Battery Operated Boyfriend

Knucklehead on July 6, 2011 at 9:47 PM

They’ve thrown plenty at Bachmann too.

Dreadnought on July 6, 2011 at 9:40 PM

Not even close. Bachmann ain’t seen nothin’ yet.

ddrintn on July 6, 2011 at 9:48 PM

Palin is 11% ahead of her 2008 numbers.

gh on July 6, 2011 at 7:37 PM

Nope. McCain won the New Hampshire Primary on July 5, 2008 with 37.1% of the vote. Palin was announced as the Republican vice presidential candidate on August 29, 2008. In that light, your post makes little sense.

steebo77 on July 6, 2011 at 9:48 PM

There haven’t been any polls for Obama vs. Bachmann, because the MSM is propping her up to be the Anti-Palin, or the Mitt-Stalking-Horse, and any polls would make Bachmann look bad.>

Wrong’em boyo.

Again.

Dreadnought on July 6, 2011 at 9:40 PM

How many polls did you see that asked GOP voters if Bachmann should run or not? That’s a staple Palin story.

ddrintn on July 6, 2011 at 9:49 PM

How many polls did you see that asked GOP voters if Bachmann should run or not? That’s a staple Palin story.

ddrintn on July 6, 2011 at 9:49 PM

That might have something to do with the fact that Bachmann is running. Meanwhile, plenty are asking if Perry should run, as well. How many were asking if Trump should run? Chris Christie?

MadisonConservative on July 6, 2011 at 9:51 PM

That might have something to do with the fact that Bachmann is running. Meanwhile, plenty are asking if Perry should run, as well. How many were asking if Trump should run? Chris Christie?

MadisonConservative on July 6, 2011 at 9:51 PM

Hence the past tense, “did”, as in, before she was a candidate. There are poll questions asking if Perry should run? They certainly don’t get highlighted here. As for Christie and Trump, I didn’t see the question asked much at all, only poll numbers showing them gaining momentum and whatnot.

ddrintn on July 6, 2011 at 9:54 PM

It is difficult to believe that there are people who back this man in office no matter what he does. It shows the intelligence of the voting base that will keep this POS in office. I cry for my children and grand kids. They are innocent and they will pay for the crazy left.

mixplix on July 6, 2011 at 9:54 PM

Thread heading south in 3-2-1…
.
.
It will be all about Palin before all is said and done.

OmahaConservative on July 6, 2011 at 7:57 PM

Yes, but more importantly:

1. She doesn’t have half a term as governor.

2. She hasn’t written a book.

3. She didn’t have a big bus before she announced her candidacy.

All these things are required before one can be said to have “executive experience sufficient to be president”.

MadisonConservative on July 6, 2011 at 8:24 PM

Changing their underwear??

Knucklehead on July 6, 2011 at 8:02 PM

The only ones making this thread about Palin are Madisonconservative, Knucklehead, & OmahaConservative.

Your chasing your tails. Again.

portlandon on July 6, 2011 at 9:56 PM

The only ones making this thread about Palin are Madisonconservative, Knucklehead, & OmahaConservative.

Your chasing your tails. Again.

portlandon on July 6, 2011 at 9:56 PM

Nah, I had a hand in it too. Poking the Palinista pokers.

ddrintn on July 6, 2011 at 9:59 PM

9% for Ron Paul

Oh, Snap!

/spathi

Del Dolemonte on July 6, 2011 at 10:00 PM

There haven’t been any polls for Obama vs. Bachmann, because the MSM is propping her up to be the Anti-Palin, or the Mitt-Stalking-Horse, and any polls would make Bachmann look bad.>

Wrong’em boyo.

Again.

Dreadnought on July 6, 2011 at 9:40 PM

How many polls did you see that asked GOP voters if Bachmann should run or not? That’s a staple Palin story.

ddrintn on July 6, 2011 at 9:49 PM

Well, if Palin’s such a shoe-in, then a “Should-Palin-Run-Poll should work out in her favor, right?

So how are those polls turning out, anyway?

Dreadnought on July 6, 2011 at 10:02 PM

The only ones making this thread about Palin are Madisonconservative, Knucklehead, & OmahaConservative.

Your chasing your tails. Again.

portlandon on July 6, 2011 at 9:56 PM

Can’t help it if we were supplied the ammunition.

MadisonConservative on July 6, 2011 at 10:05 PM

BOB………..

Knucklehead on July 6, 2011 at 9:47 PM

Doesn’t he still drive a Sentra?

Gohawgs on July 6, 2011 at 10:07 PM

Can’t help it if we were supplied the ammunition.

MadisonConservative on July 6, 2011 at 10:05 PM

STOP SAYING f**k!!!!!/

portlandon on July 6, 2011 at 10:10 PM

STOP SAYING f**k!!!!!/

portlandon on July 6, 2011 at 10:10 PM

That censored profanity just totally offended me. And it seems to be allowed here. So, instead of going somewhere else, I’m going to sit here and demand I get my way.

Grilled cheese. Now. And watch your mouth.

MadisonConservative on July 6, 2011 at 10:13 PM

ddrintn- are you really idesign? You both sound alike. You know spouting every whiny reason why Bachmann is moving ahead while Palin sits on the sideline.

CW on July 6, 2011 at 10:14 PM

Can’t help it if we were supplied the ammunition.
MadisonConservative on July 6, 2011 at 10:05 PM

No self-control? Personal responsibility?

“Mommy, those horrible Palinistas made me do it!”

/s

cs89 on July 6, 2011 at 10:14 PM

This is PPP. They are notoriously bad. I want to believe these numbers, but I need a better pollster.

cartooner on July 6, 2011 at 10:16 PM

CW on July 6, 2011 at 10:14 PM

iirc, idesign sounds more like unseen

gh on July 6, 2011 at 10:16 PM

iirc, idesign sounds more like unseen

gh on July 6, 2011 at 10:16 PM

Those that act as though SP is beyond reproach sound alike.

CW on July 6, 2011 at 10:17 PM

Grilled cheese. Now. And watch your mouth.

MadisonConservative on July 6, 2011 at 10:13 PM

I make Sammich for nobody.

Since you are going to camp out here. How about some Smores?

portlandon on July 6, 2011 at 10:20 PM

CW on July 6, 2011 at 10:17 PM

I remember ddrintn as somewhat less of a fanatic

gh on July 6, 2011 at 10:21 PM

Tell that to unseen, promachus, and the others that have been the loudest in tearing down Michelle Bachmann with tactics that are usually the tools of the hard left.

MadisonConservative on July 6, 2011 at 9:41 PM

So saying Bachmann has the same resume as Obama is ahard left tactic? got it. pointing out that Bachmann’s campaign manger Ed rollins said his campaign strategy would be to push Bachmann as the “smart” Palin is a hard left tactic? got it.

pointing out that Bachmann sent a thank you note ot the Obama admin for bailing out the pork industry after she complained about the auto bailouts is ahard left tactic. got it.

pointing out that Bachmann has recieved thousands if not 100′s of thousands of taxpayer money that directly helped her or her family while all the time crying about the evils of big governemtn and wasteful spending is a hard left tactic. got it.

carry on. go Bachmann go if you can’t do it no one can!

unseen on July 6, 2011 at 10:22 PM

Michele is a fighter and I respect her for that. Where are the guys? They’re playing nice. And that doesn’t cut it with me.

Mirimichi on July 6, 2011 at 10:24 PM

Well, if Palin’s such a shoe-in, then a “Should-Palin-Run-Poll should work out in her favor, right?

So how are those polls turning out, anyway?

Dreadnought on July 6, 2011 at 10:02 PM

pretty good. 55% say she should or they don’t care either way. 45% say no. seems the majority of the party wants her to run.

unseen on July 6, 2011 at 10:24 PM

Those that act as though SP is beyond reproach sound alike.

CW on July 6, 2011 at 10:17 PM

The reverse can be true…The 36 hour abdicator, the 17 hour lying liar lying and/or the lil annual are in a class by themselves…

Gohawgs on July 6, 2011 at 10:25 PM

Those that act as though SP is beyond reproach sound alike.

CW on July 6, 2011 at 10:17 PM

I’m not sure what “beyond reproach” means to you. I certainly don’t see that she has anything to apologize for but if she enters the race, Obama is not going to roll over and play dead.

I am certain that Palin would make a fine president but she seems to be determined to defeat Obama first. She has a lot to lose if she gets in and is not immediately competitive. I don’t think she’ll make a final decision until she absolutely has to. All the cheerleading and bashing is really irritating when there are obvious reasons for her to wait to decide.

gh on July 6, 2011 at 10:27 PM

unseen on July 6, 2011 at 10:22 PM

What is your position if Sarah decides the best strategy is to endorse Bachmann?

gh on July 6, 2011 at 10:28 PM

What is your position if Sarah decides the best strategy is to endorse Bachmann?

gh on July 6, 2011 at 10:28 PM

then I would hope Perry gets into the race. and if he doesn’t i would most likely go with Timmy

unseen on July 6, 2011 at 10:31 PM

I’m just waiting for the last week of July to see if Palin throws her hat into the ring then.

Also reading these Bachmann threads, bemused that even when no Palin supporters are posting, the usual suspects are still going on and on about either Palin’s supporters or Palin’s chances.

Aitch748 on July 6, 2011 at 10:32 PM

Athe usual suspects are still going on and on about either Palin’s supporters or Palin’s chances.
itch748 on July 6, 2011 at 10:32 PM

which tends to confirm my theory that there is no big bachmann support out there. It is more antipalin support believing that bachmann will help stop Palin.

unseen on July 6, 2011 at 10:34 PM

unseen on July 6, 2011 at 10:31 PM

Hmm… I would go with Bachmann. If Palin really has a national grass-roots organization like the one she’s purported to have in Iowa, I would think many of them would follow her lead.

gh on July 6, 2011 at 10:35 PM

What the enthusiasm for Bachmann tells me is it doesn’t really matter who the nominee is, how kooky they’re perceived to be or how much/how little experience they have. The only thing that matters is that he/she is a rock-ribbed conservative.

I would have no problem voting for Bachmann if she were the nominee, but I still think when Palin gets in she’s going to be like a tsunami to the other candidates. We’ll see I guess.

NoLeftTurn on July 6, 2011 at 10:39 PM

Grilled cheese. Now. And watch your mouth.

MadisonConservative on July 6, 2011 at 10:13 PM

I make Sammich for nobody.

Since you are going to camp out here. How about some Smores?

portlandon on July 6, 2011 at 10:20 PM

You want grilled cheese sammies? Here’s how we do them in New Hampshire. The Secret Ingredient is jam made from Duck Bacon!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y4_doZegMwY

Del Dolemonte on July 6, 2011 at 10:40 PM

If Palin really has a national grass-roots organization like the one she’s purported to have in Iowa, I would think many of them would follow her lead.

gh on July 6, 2011 at 10:35 PM

anything is possilbe but I don’t know why they would support Bachmann she has nothing in common with Palin. her resume is thin, she has some big hypocritcal issues to address and she has no accomplishments. Most Palin supporters suport her because of her record and her leading as a Reagna conservative.

I suppose that woulf be like huck dropping out and endorsing Mitt. i doubt many Huck supporters would flock to mitt.

unseen on July 6, 2011 at 10:40 PM

Well, if Palin’s such a shoe-in, then a “Should-Palin-Run-Poll should work out in her favor, right?

So how are those polls turning out, anyway?

Dreadnought on July 6, 2011 at 10:02 PM

pretty good. 55% say she should or they don’t care either way. 45% say no. seems the majority of the party wants her to run.
unseen on July 6, 2011 at 10:24 PM

Nice to include the “no impact”, people with the “she should run” people:

“36% of Likely GOP Primary Voters think it would be good for Republicans if Palin enters the race, but 45% believe it would be bad for the party. Just 11% say it would have no impact.”

A different poll:

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20070206-503544.html

I hardly believe that anyone remotely objective, could find either poll result encouraging for Palin.

Dreadnought on July 6, 2011 at 10:41 PM

would have no problem voting for Bachmann if she were the nominee,
NoLeftTurn on July 6, 2011 at 10:39 PM

ditto but I think she would be one of are weaker choices to put up against Obama. Better than Mitt on ideology but worse then him on experience. it a heads you win tails I lose outcome. but bachmann would be better than Obama so i would vote for her as the nominee against Obama.

unseen on July 6, 2011 at 10:43 PM

I hardly believe that anyone remotely objective, could find either poll result encouraging for Palin.

Dreadnought on July 6, 2011 at 10:41 PM

I hardly think anyone here is remotely objective.

Reagan’s polls were bad at this stage too.

gh on July 6, 2011 at 10:44 PM

I hardly believe that anyone remotely objective, could find either poll result encouraging for Palin.

Dreadnought on July 6, 2011 at 10:41 PM

1) there will not be a head to haed against Palin vs antipalin candidate the 45% that don’t want her to run is divided between many candidates. 36% who do will vote for her in the primaries. 36% beats a fractured 45%

2) if for some reason the primary comes down to Palin ve the antipalin candidate 45% is a minority. and while it beats 36% if only 8% of those 19% that have no opinion/don;t care will comes her way or less than 50% of the undecideds she beats the antipalin forces.

3) either way you slice it the poll is good news for Palin because it shows with all guns ablazing the gOp powers that be have been unable to stop Palin from having a clear pathway to the nomination.

unseen on July 6, 2011 at 10:48 PM

QOTD is up.

gh on July 6, 2011 at 10:52 PM

ditto but I think she would be one of are weaker choices to put up against Obama. Better than Mitt on ideology but worse then him on experience. it a heads you win tails I lose outcome. but bachmann would be better than Obama so i would vote for her as the nominee against Obama.

unseen on July 6, 2011 at 10:43 PM

Agreed. I have reservations about her lack of executive experience. Also, she’s gaffe-prone (which doesn’t bother me but the press WILL make hay out of it) and who knows what skeletons she has in her closet. I think she’ll have a tough row to hoe because no matter how her supporters try to deny it, she will be Palinized to the nth degree if she gets the nomination, and unlike with Palin against whom they have nothing left in the chamber, there will be ample opportunity to attack Bachmann — or any other nominee — during the general election. Of course this shouldn’t discourage us from voting for the best possible candidate and Bachmann is better than many of the other options, but still not my first choice and she wouldn’t be even if Palin didn’t get in it. She’s solid on most of the issues, but some of her beliefs are troubling to me, notably that she thinks you can cure Teh Gheyness.

NoLeftTurn on July 6, 2011 at 10:55 PM

Well, if Palin’s such a shoe-in, then a “Should-Palin-Run-Poll should work out in her favor, right?

So how are those polls turning out, anyway?

Dreadnought on July 6, 2011 at 10:02 PM

I don’t know if she’d be a shoo-in for the nomination, but I do believe that if she were to announce her candidacy she’d overtake Romney fairly quickly as the frontrunner. That’s pretty much the motivation of all the “DON’T RUN!!!!” crap from the past two years.

ddrintn on July 6, 2011 at 10:58 PM

She’s solid on most of the issues, but some of her beliefs are troubling to me, notably that she thinks you can cure Teh Gheyness.

NoLeftTurn on July 6, 2011 at 10:55 PM

My three biggest sticking points is one her inexperience, 2) her hypocritcal actions 3) her wie open flank on the social issues that the press will destory her on.

i would most likely choose her over mitt and hope for the best. But i’m tired of picking the lesser of two evils.

unseen on July 6, 2011 at 11:01 PM

Am I the only one here with a “wait and see” attitude toward the GOP field?

It’s way too soon to be going all-or-nothing for any of these people.

But if you don’t support my favorite for the nomination (which I haven’t even come close to deciding), you, yes YOU, are worse than Hitler.

H/T to Greg (the unicorn-fondler) Gutfeld for the cheesy cheese.

Now where’d I put those crackers?

hillbillyjim on July 6, 2011 at 11:02 PM

I hardly believe that anyone remotely objective, could find either poll result encouraging for Palin.

Dreadnought on July 6, 2011 at 10:41 PM

1) there will not be a head to haed against Palin vs antipalin candidate the 45% that don’t want her to run is divided between many candidates. 36% who do will vote for her in the primaries. 36% beats a fractured 45%

2) if for some reason the primary comes down to Palin ve the antipalin candidate 45% is a minority. and while it beats 36% if only 8% of those 19% that have no opinion/don;t care will comes her way or less than 50% of the undecideds she beats the antipalin forces.

3) either way you slice it the poll is good news for Palin because it shows with all guns ablazing the gOp powers that be have been unable to stop Palin from having a clear pathway to the nomination.

unseen on July 6, 2011 at 10:48 PM

Where do you get that the 36% who say it would be a good thing if she ran, are actually going to vote for her in a primary? There are many people who think it would be okay if she ran that have no intention of voting for her. I think it would be okay if she ran, actually.

When she’s polled in the Primary race she’s lucky to get 1/3 of that 36%.

How many Republicans if polled would say Pawlenty should run? Or Romney? Or Bachmann? Or Buddy Roemer?

But you can’t take those numbers and make the jump to “they’re going to vote for ****” in the primary.

Dreadnought on July 6, 2011 at 11:10 PM

Bachmann doesn’t have a shot. Maybe in the Iowa primary, but when voters figure out her husband is a total wackadoodle….

I know, it’s not about him, but it will be anyway

Go RBNY on July 6, 2011 at 11:21 PM

How many Republicans if polled would say Pawlenty should run? Or Romney? Or Bachmann? Or Buddy Roemer?

But you can’t take those numbers and make the jump to “they’re going to vote for ****” in the primary.

Dreadnought on July 6, 2011 at 11:10 PM

believe what you will. I have seen evidence that supports my theory. I have yet to see any non palin supporter calling for her to run. nor have I seen any Palin supporter calling for her not to run.

the hotair poll showed about the same numbers and showed how the undecided tended to break down in head to head figures. the fact Palin polls in 1st and second place in most skewed polls also show that. her favs are wroound the same level as the 36-38% while her unfavs are around the 50% level. which also tends to reinforce the theory. 36% to 38% appears to be her bottom level of support. it hasn’t moved lower no matter what is thrown at her. and as the bus tour showed her unfavs are weak and can be brought lower. So I;m sure enough with the facts to atand by what I said. Her ceiling in the GOp in the primaries will be around 60% more likely 55% and her bottome level of support will be arounf 35-40% in head to head match up.

she is in a good position to enter and win the nomination. Esp considering that she is fully vetted

unseen on July 6, 2011 at 11:23 PM

Where do you get that the 36% who say it would be a good thing if she ran, are actually going to vote for her in a primary? There are many people who think it would be okay if she ran that have no intention of voting for her. I think it would be okay if she ran, actually.

Dreadnought on July 6, 2011 at 11:10 PM

So according to this constantly-cited poll Palin has absolutely NO shot at winning a single primary, much less the nomination. Let’s stipulate that Palin actually enters the race: how much would you be willing to bet that she does NOT win the nomination?

ddrintn on July 6, 2011 at 11:28 PM

How many Republicans if polled would say Pawlenty should run? Or Romney? Or Bachmann? Or Buddy Roemer?

But you can’t take those numbers and make the jump to “they’re going to vote for ****” in the primary.

Dreadnought on July 6, 2011 at 11:10 PM

believe what you will. I have seen evidence that supports my theory. I have yet to see any non palin supporter calling for her to run. nor have I seen any Palin supporter calling for her not to run.

the hotair poll showed about the same numbers and showed how the undecided tended to break down in head to head figures. the fact Palin polls in 1st and second place in most skewed polls also show that. her favs are wroound the same level as the 36-38% while her unfavs are around the 50% level. which also tends to reinforce the theory. 36% to 38% appears to be her bottom level of support. it hasn’t moved lower no matter what is thrown at her. and as the bus tour showed her unfavs are weak and can be brought lower. So I;m sure enough with the facts to atand by what I said. Her ceiling in the GOp in the primaries will be around 60% more likely 55% and her bottome level of support will be arounf 35-40% in head to head match up.

she is in a good position to enter and win the nomination. Esp considering that she is fully vetted

unseen on July 6, 2011 at 11:23 PM

Oh man.

You can’t be drawing conclusions based on the Hotair poll. You would get better results throwing darts, than from self-selected internet polling.

Seriously.

As far as this statement: “I have yet to see any non palin supporter calling for her to run. nor have I seen any Palin supporter calling for her not to run.”

You are drawing way too many conclusions based on a very unrepresentative group of people: blog commenters.

And obviously, no Palin supporter is going to call on her “not to run”, but a lot of non-supporters are going to have no problem with her running, for a lot of different reasons: wanting more competition; a sense of fair play; fear of turning off her supporters; liking her without necessarily wanting to vote for her; just thinking it would be more exciting; or whatever.

Heck, I think she should run. Why not? She’s got supporters, let her give it a shot.

I think you will see her support is a lot narrower than you will ever admit.

36% to 38% appears to be her bottom level of support. it hasn’t moved lower no matter what is thrown at her.

Where do you get that she has 36 to 38% level of support? She’s never polled anywhere near that, anytime, anywhere.

And what has the bus tour proved? Her polling hasn’t changed a bit since she started.

Dreadnought on July 6, 2011 at 11:42 PM

And what has the bus tour proved? Her polling hasn’t changed a bit since she started.

Dreadnought on July 6, 2011 at 11:42 PM

her unfavs fell from 65 to 52% during her bus tour. She has the highest strong favs in the party.

unseen on July 6, 2011 at 11:49 PM

Where do you get that the 36% who say it would be a good thing if she ran, are actually going to vote for her in a primary? There are many people who think it would be okay if she ran that have no intention of voting for her. I think it would be okay if she ran, actually.

Dreadnought on July 6, 2011 at 11:10 PM

So according to this constantly-cited poll Palin has absolutely NO shot at winning a single primary, much less the nomination. Let’s stipulate that Palin actually enters the race: how much would you be willing to bet that she does NOT win the nomination?

ddrintn on July 6, 2011 at 11:28 PM

Oh man I already went through this before with another guy.

You want to bet-here’s my stipulation-we bet now straight up, whether she runs or not. You lay the odds-it’s your proposal.

Only a fool bets on changing propositions. I know what the conditions are now, and what odds I think she could win right now.

You and the rest of this crew are so confident, lay the odds and bet now. She’s such a great candidate with such a wonderful resume, it should be easy money, right?

Dreadnought on July 6, 2011 at 11:49 PM

Oh man.

You can’t be drawing conclusions based on the Hotair poll.

Dreadnought on July 6, 2011 at 11:42 PM

But yet a national poll that includes a majority of Democrats IS a good indicator as to how Palin would do in the Republican primaries? Riiiiiight. The HA poll would be more useful by comparison.

ddrintn on July 6, 2011 at 11:51 PM

You want to bet-here’s my stipulation-we bet now straight up, whether she runs or not. You lay the odds-it’s your proposal.

Dreadnought on July 6, 2011 at 11:49 PM

Wait a second. She’s so hated, and you only want to bet on whether she runs or not? LOL Come on. IF she enters the race, she’ll get clobbered, right? And you win the bet easily, right? There can’t be a bet until she’s a candidate. You won’t take that bet because you have a sneaking suspicion she’s not as hated among Republicans as you might like to believe. You suspect that if she runs she’d win the nomination, don’t you? Of course you do.

ddrintn on July 6, 2011 at 11:54 PM

But yet a national poll that includes a majority of Democrats IS a good indicator as to how Palin would do in the Republican primaries? Riiiiiight. The HA poll would be more useful by comparison.

ddrintn on July 6, 2011 at 11:51 PM

In the CBS poll 54% of Republican voters said she should not run.

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/06/08/poll-most-say-palin-shouldnt-run-for-president/

Dreadnought on July 6, 2011 at 11:57 PM

Wait a second. She’s so hated, and you only want to bet on whether she runs or not? LOL Come on. IF she enters the race, she’ll get clobbered, right? And you win the bet easily, right? There can’t be a bet until she’s a candidate. You won’t take that bet because you have a sneaking suspicion she’s not as hated among Republicans as you might like to believe. You suspect that if she runs she’d win the nomination, don’t you? Of course you do.

ddrintn on July 6, 2011 at 11:54 PM

No, I’ll bet on her winning or not, but the conditions are: whether she decides run or not, the bet is still on.

The guy before wanted an out if Palin didn’t decide to run. It sounded to me that that is what you wanted too.

Dreadnought on July 7, 2011 at 12:00 AM

her unfavs fell from 65 to 52% during her bus tour. She has the highest strong favs in the party.

unseen on July 6, 2011 at 11:49 PM

52% unfavorable’s are nothing to be bragging about.

Knucklehead on July 7, 2011 at 12:06 AM

52% unfavorable’s are nothing to be bragging about.

Knucklehead on July 7, 2011 at 12:06 AM

But, but, but…She’s Rocky!

csdeven on July 7, 2011 at 12:08 AM

Dreadnought on July 6, 2011 at 11:49 PM

No gambling, nor mentioning of gambling, at HA per the abdicator man…

Gohawgs on July 7, 2011 at 12:14 AM

I hardly believe that anyone remotely objective, could find either poll result encouraging for Palin.

Dreadnought on July 6, 2011 at 10:41 PM
I hardly think anyone here is remotely objective.

Reagan’s polls were bad at this stage too.

gh on July 6, 2011 at 10:44 PM

Reagan’s polls were a lot more up and down than Palin’s supporters like to admit:

http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,723898,00.html

At no time, has Palin polled anywhere near that well vs. Obama.

Dreadnought on July 7, 2011 at 12:17 AM

52% unfavorable’s are nothing to be bragging about.

Knucklehead on July 7, 2011 at 12:06 AM

It does show, to some, that poll numbers aren’t static. It shows, to some, that the more the public sees her and not Tina Fey that her poll numbers can (and have improve)…That’s what the debates and the primaries are for…

Gohawgs on July 7, 2011 at 12:19 AM

It does show, to some, that poll numbers aren’t static. It shows, to some, that the more the public sees her and not Tina Fey that her poll numbers can (and have improve)…That’s what the debates and the primaries are for…

Gohawgs on July 7, 2011 at 12:19 AM

Dick “can I suck your toes” Morris was on BOR tonight and said Palin has taken over the most hated American spot from George Bush. LOL

Knucklehead on July 7, 2011 at 12:30 AM

Dreadnought on July 6, 2011 at 11:49 PM
No gambling, nor mentioning of gambling, at HA per the abdicator man…

Gohawgs on July 7, 2011 at 12:14 AM

Fair enough, but why don’t you tell that to the (Palin)people who keep making these challenges to me. This is the second time now that someone proposed a bet to me.

By the way, want to show me where gambling or betting is mentioned in the terms of service?

Dreadnought on July 7, 2011 at 12:33 AM

Knucklehead on July 7, 2011 at 12:30 AM

Morris is knowledgeable about the Clintons…Everything else, not so much…

Gohawgs on July 7, 2011 at 12:37 AM

By the way, want to show me where gambling or betting is mentioned in the terms of service?

Dreadnought on July 7, 2011 at 12:33 AM

Because Judge “abdicator” Smails said so…And, anyone that posts basically the same word for 36 straight hours on one thread has to be right…

Gohawgs on July 7, 2011 at 12:40 AM

By the way, want to show me where gambling or betting is mentioned in the terms of service?

Dreadnought on July 7, 2011 at 12:33 AM

Gohawgs is having another come apart. The terms of service prohibit violation of any law. If gambling is legal in your state, then there is no problem. I refuse to because gambling is illegal in my state. But being the progressives these Palin nutjobs are, they don’t care about that. They feel that the law only counts if there is a possibility of getting caught.

csdeven on July 7, 2011 at 2:52 AM

Dreadnought on July 7, 2011 at 12:33 AM

See the post above for retentiveness…

Gohawgs on July 7, 2011 at 3:18 AM

But Mitt has all that money. Doesn’t lots of cash equal popularity?

JimP on July 7, 2011 at 8:08 AM

See the post above for retentiveness…

Gohawgs on July 7, 2011 at 3:18 AM

Still hanging onto that obsession with me I see. Does your grammy know how much time you devote to obsessing on every word that I write? You probably better not tell her or she wont cut the crust on your sammiches any longer.

csdeven on July 7, 2011 at 8:36 AM

Okay, here’s what I see in the candidate thread comments.

10% Palin would have been better.
10% Bachmann is no conservative.
30% Completely OT.
1% Hey look, Ron Paul is listed here under “also receiving votes”!
49% Look at the Palin/Bachmann lovers/haters.

John Deaux on July 7, 2011 at 9:36 AM

Comment pages: 1 2