Hot Air Candidate Survey: 4th of July Weekend Results

posted at 9:30 am on July 4, 2011 by Patrick Ishmael

With over 6000 ballots cast, we have results. Monthly Presidential chart is below. Then I’ll go into some of the hard realities facing Hot Air’s front runner. Send your questions and comments to me here.

Sarah Palin has returned to almost her highest vote take since the survey began, at 36.94% of the vote. Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry run closely together, coming in second (19.95%) and third (18.91%) respectively. Herman Cain takes fourth at 6.68%, continuing his downward movement since his May highs. Mitt Romney takes fifth, at 6.3%.

Palin may still be on top of the overall results, but she is in major danger of being eclipsed in the primaries by Bachmann and/or Perry. The following pie chart should make Palin supporters very, very uneasy.

(Palin beats Perry by 10 points, with unaffiliated voters breaking roughly 3-to-2 to Perry. The situation I lay out below is the more serious situation of the two for Palin.)

Hot Air is a site that, as these surveys consistently show, has a very strong and organized Palin following — and Hot Air tilts toward the Grassroots Right anyway — yet from her baseline vote to her head-to-head vote against Bachmann, Palin ekes out only a four point win, gaining 16 points from her baseline vs. Bachmann’s 28 point gain. If Bachmann takes that sort of ratio of unaffiliated voters in a head-to-head primary, I don’t see how Palin overcomes Bachmann, let alone overcomes whoever makes it out of the establishment primary of Romney, Pawlenty et al. If Palin’s overall Hot Air numbers again drop back to 32% or so, she will likely lose to Bachmann in the Hot Air head-to-head match-up.

There’s a protective instinct in play here, too, and it appears that even grassroot-ers see Bachmann as a safer option to Palin. The 2nd choice Perry vote hammers this home pretty clearly.

But Bachmann’s pathway to the nomination is not a cakewalk and is complicated by Perry’s candidacy: Perry is not only the second choice for Palin, but for Bachmann as well.

Which pretty well explains this outcome:

Whoever emerges between Perry and Bachmann will have the electoral advantage on Palin, who it appears has serious electoral maneuvering problems even among the base. Palin’s strength is the excitement of her supporters and the high commitment of those supporters to her. Her weakness is, simply, that there won’t be enough of them to carry her through the current field of primary candidates. I wrote back in 2009 that Palin’s most likely role in the 2012 cycle would be as a coronator. I still believe that’s basically right.

Two other tidbits: The new Hot Air leader for the vice presidential nomination is Michele Bachmann, unseating Allen West from his long-running spot atop the VP results.

The new Hot Air second choice for president leader is, also, Michele Bachmann.

Lots here. Feedback welcome.

This post was promoted from GreenRoom to HotAir.com.
To see the comments on the original post, look here.

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unseen on July 5, 2011 at 2:59 AM

That’s grassroots there. Very cool.

Dongemaharu on July 5, 2011 at 3:05 AM

annoyinglittletwerp on July 5, 2011 at 3:02 AM

I know the tired feeling for sure..Has bitten me several times!..:)

PS..IMHO I see no way CA walks!..

Dire Straits on July 5, 2011 at 3:05 AM

unseen on July 5, 2011 at 3:00 AM

Yeah that part stuck me great. Did you know that she was a C4P commenter? She latter left to do serious work, a bunch of the older commenters too. They have actually done a couple meetings and they know each other well now. All are pitching in as they can, some are writing up blogs, others are signing up people. But to train oneself in political organizing from the ground up, that’s seriously cool. From what I understand, o4p has a huge presence in California. Even if they don’t take Cali, they can run over all the nearby states, Colorado and New Mexico. Just imagine these people doing all it takes to win.

promachus on July 5, 2011 at 3:05 AM

unseen on July 5, 2011 at 3:00 AM

Some great comments at RCP. I especially like this one.

1Belle1
1 hour ago
As a Democrat, I appreciated this article.  I have been more than anxious for Palin to say “GAME ON!”

I would be honored to call her Madame President.  I too, believe she is a leader with vision and courage.

Not based on her words, but based on her actions in Alaska as governor.

idesign on July 5, 2011 at 3:06 AM

annoyinglittletwerp on July 5, 2011 at 3:04 AM

posting a quote from a breaking story is now creepy. got it.

unseen on July 5, 2011 at 3:06 AM

You are almost creepy in your obsession with her.

annoyinglittletwerp on July 5, 2011 at 3:04 AM

And you are seriously annoying with you twostep with dire. Back off unseen.

promachus on July 5, 2011 at 3:07 AM

unseen on July 5, 2011 at 3:05 AM

Yep Iowa is hers for the taking. They are all waiting for her from Branstad on down. Even Van Der Plaats can be persuaded.

promachus on July 5, 2011 at 3:09 AM

Yeah that part stuck me great. Did you know that she was a C4P commenter? She latter left to do serious work, a bunch of the older commenters too. They have actually done a couple meetings and they know each other well now. All are pitching in as they can, some are writing up blogs, others are signing up people. But to train oneself in political organizing from the ground up, that’s seriously cool. From what I understand, o4p has a huge presence in California. Even if they don’t take Cali, they can run over all the nearby states, Colorado and New Mexico. Just imagine these people doing all it takes to win.

promachus on July 5, 2011 at 3:05 AM

Yeap….the guy from NY is very good too.

unseen on July 5, 2011 at 3:09 AM

And you are seriously annoying with you twostep with dire. Back off unseen.

promachus on July 5, 2011 at 3:07 AM

You have no authority over ANYONE here.

annoyinglittletwerp on July 5, 2011 at 3:10 AM

Not based on her words, but based on her actions in Alaska as governor.

idesign on July 5, 2011 at 3:06 AM

The establishment still doesn’t get it. They bought into too many narratives to ever understand why people support gov Palin.

unseen on July 5, 2011 at 3:11 AM

And you are seriously annoying with you twostep with dire. Back off unseen.

promachus on July 5, 2011 at 3:07 AM

Is there a problem??..:)

Dire Straits on July 5, 2011 at 3:11 AM

annoyinglittletwerp on July 5, 2011 at 3:10 AM

Yes but promachus loves to get B-slapped by Allahpundit!..:)

Dire Straits on July 5, 2011 at 3:13 AM

You have no authority over ANYONE here.

annoyinglittletwerp on July 5, 2011 at 3:10 AM

And yet you told me to leave…LOL

idesign on July 5, 2011 at 3:13 AM

Is there a problem??..:)

Dire Straits on July 5, 2011 at 3:11 AM

Do we care?
I don’t-and my guess it that you don’t either.

annoyinglittletwerp on July 5, 2011 at 3:13 AM

And yet you told me to leave…LOL

idesign on July 5, 2011 at 3:13 AM

I’m not the baby who’s whining about how biased HA is.

annoyinglittletwerp on July 5, 2011 at 3:14 AM

annoyinglittletwerp on July 5, 2011 at 3:13 AM

Good point!..:)

Dire Straits on July 5, 2011 at 3:16 AM

Craig Bergman, a state tea party stalwart who has worked in politics for 20 years, including stints on the Alan Keyes and Ron Paul presidential campaigns, said that Palin is well positioned to make some serious noise. “Her grass-roots support is times 10 what Ron Paul’s is,” Bergman said. “The Ron Paul people are very intense but narrowly focused, whereas Palin attracts lawyers, doctors, soccer moms, business people, young people, all across the gamut. They’re not as rabidly intense, but there are many, many more of them.”

Which confirms Ace’s comment about what he is seeing on his blog.

unseen on July 5, 2011 at 3:17 AM

Sage advice from C4P:

And keep getting people registered at O4P, and try to join your county team if you have one. If you don’t know if you have a county group, check with your state coordinator by going to O4P, clicking on the State flag, and try sending an e-mail to the state coordinator.

The new site at O4P looks great. We all have to join up and get going NOW.

promachus on July 5, 2011 at 3:19 AM

hehe Mitt can’t catch a break….but i agree 100% with this comment:

People are looking for someone who is leader — someone who will take the fight on the issues to Obama,” Bergman said before dismissing the idea that Palin would suffer from being perceived as unelectable. “A lawn chair could beat Barack Obama with 10 percent unemployment and $4 a gallon gas. That means Jon Huntsman could do it; that means probably anybody but Mitt Romney, because RomneyCare is so demotivating.”

unseen on July 5, 2011 at 3:19 AM

I’m not the baby who’s whining about how biased HA is.

annoyinglittletwerp on July 5, 2011 at 3:14 AM

Please show the post where I whined like a baby….

Let’s see it, otherwise apologize!

idesign on July 5, 2011 at 3:19 AM

All you rabid cult worshippers at the altar of Palin, you know what to do. Sign up with O4P. Don’t wait.

promachus on July 5, 2011 at 3:20 AM

great article. And the ABP will have a bad day tommorrow.

great way to end the night. Hav efun guys…

unseen on July 5, 2011 at 3:21 AM

Please show the post where I whined like a baby….

Let’s see it, otherwise apologize!

idesign on July 5, 2011 at 3:19 AM

The post from the Freeps.
You agree with it.
I can’t make you do anything. Wouldn’t want to.
Knuck and I merely suggested that you might be happier at a blog that has more Palin…adoring fans.

annoyinglittletwerp on July 5, 2011 at 3:23 AM

All you rabid cult worshippers at the altar of Palin, you know what to do. Sign up with O4P. Don’t wait.

promachus on July 5, 2011 at 3:20 AM

Already there. Wisconsin4Palin

idesign on July 5, 2011 at 3:23 AM

unseen on July 5, 2011 at 3:21 AM

Thanks..At least we are not haters tonight!..:)

Dire Straits on July 5, 2011 at 3:23 AM

The post from the Freeps.
You agree with it.
I can’t make you do anything. Wouldn’t want to.
Knuck and I merely suggested that you might be happier at a blog that has more Palin…adoring fans.

annoyinglittletwerp on July 5, 2011 at 3:23 AM

I just posted it…

Did I whine?

You’re really stretching it….LOL

Try again….

idesign on July 5, 2011 at 3:26 AM

Thanks..At least we are not haters tonight!..:)

Dire Straits on July 5, 2011 at 3:23 AM

Who do you like so far?

annoyinglittletwerp on July 5, 2011 at 3:27 AM

idesign on July 5, 2011 at 3:26 AM

Why’d you post it then?
Mere curiosity?

annoyinglittletwerp on July 5, 2011 at 3:28 AM

Who do you like so far?

annoyinglittletwerp on July 5, 2011 at 3:27 AM

You are not going to like me for the one person I want to run..:):)

Dire Straits on July 5, 2011 at 3:29 AM

Why’d you post it then?
Mere curiosity?

annoyinglittletwerp on July 5, 2011 at 3:28 AM

To show the story was spreading to FR….

idesign on July 5, 2011 at 3:29 AM

You are not going to like me for the one person I want to run..:):)

Dire Straits on July 5, 2011 at 3:29 AM

You leave my governor alone!
Actually-I support Perry as well.

annoyinglittletwerp on July 5, 2011 at 3:32 AM

annoyinglittletwerp on July 5, 2011 at 3:32 AM

..:):)

Dire Straits on July 5, 2011 at 3:33 AM

To show the story was spreading to FR….

idesign on July 5, 2011 at 3:29 AM

So then you don’t agree with unseen and promachus that HA is intentionally biased against SP?

annoyinglittletwerp on July 5, 2011 at 3:33 AM

So then you don’t agree with unseen and promachus that HA is intentionally biased against SP?

annoyinglittletwerp on July 5, 2011 at 3:33 AM

I’m not sure, but they did do a lot of Bachmann vs Palin.

idesign on July 5, 2011 at 3:37 AM

Craig Bergman, a state tea party stalwart who has worked in politics for 20 years, including stints on the Alan Keyes and Ron Paul presidential campaigns, said that Palin is well positioned to make some serious noise. “Her grass-roots support is times 10 what Ron Paul’s is,” Bergman said. “The Ron Paul people are very intense but narrowly focused, whereas Palin attracts lawyers, doctors, soccer moms, business people, young people, all across the gamut. They’re not as rabidly intense, but there are many, many more of them.”

Which confirms Ace’s comment about what he is seeing on his blog.

unseen on July 5, 2011 at 3:17 AM

10 times is just a figure of speech. The actual factor is much higher than that. There is no amount of money that can buy the kind of ground support that SP has. So many patriotic volunteers are actuated by their passions into making meaningful contributions; time and money.

Geochelone on July 5, 2011 at 3:38 AM

I’m not sure, but they did do a lot of Bachmann vs Palin.

idesign on July 5, 2011 at 3:37 AM

It’s all for the hits.
At any rate…I apologize.

annoyinglittletwerp on July 5, 2011 at 3:43 AM

It’s all for the hits.
At any rate…I apologize.

annoyinglittletwerp on July 5, 2011 at 3:43 AM

I apologize also.

Have a good night…)

idesign on July 5, 2011 at 3:45 AM

Have a good night…)

idesign on July 5, 2011 at 3:45 AM

And you as well.

annoyinglittletwerp on July 5, 2011 at 3:47 AM

Geochelone on July 5, 2011 at 3:38 AM

Casey Anthony verdict??..

Dire Straits on July 5, 2011 at 3:48 AM

Geochelone on July 5, 2011 at 3:38 AM
Casey Anthony verdict??..

Dire Straits on July 5, 2011 at 3:48 AM

Your prediction?..:)

Dire Straits on July 5, 2011 at 3:50 AM

Casey Anthony verdict??..

Dire Straits on July 5, 2011 at 3:48 AM

Its still up in da air, right?

Geochelone on July 5, 2011 at 3:51 AM

Your prediction?..:)

Dire Straits on July 5, 2011 at 3:50 AM

You’re as bad as my son. LoL

annoyinglittletwerp on July 5, 2011 at 3:52 AM

Its still up in da air, right?

Geochelone on July 5, 2011 at 3:51 AM

Yes it is..

Dire Straits on July 5, 2011 at 3:53 AM

annoyinglittletwerp on July 5, 2011 at 3:52 AM

LOL!..:)

Dire Straits on July 5, 2011 at 3:53 AM

Dire Straits on July 5, 2011 at 3:50 AM

I have to read up on it. Even then that would still make it a lot of guess work. Juries these days, especially ones in CA, are capable of rendering almost any imagining.

Geochelone on July 5, 2011 at 3:54 AM

annoyinglittletwerp on July 5, 2011 at 3:52 AM

LOL!..:)

Dire Straits on July 5, 2011 at 3:53 AM

Good thing she didn’t commit the murder in Illinois.
Illinois recently got rid of the death penalty.

annoyinglittletwerp on July 5, 2011 at 3:55 AM

Geochelone on July 5, 2011 at 3:54 AM

Good point!..:)

Dire Straits on July 5, 2011 at 3:55 AM

Later DS

Geochelone on July 5, 2011 at 3:56 AM

LOL!..:)

Dire Straits on July 5, 2011 at 3:53 AM

I was maybe 25 during the OJ trial…and I admit that I was GLUED to CNN.

annoyinglittletwerp on July 5, 2011 at 3:56 AM

DS: I though CA was in Florida?

annoyinglittletwerp on July 5, 2011 at 3:57 AM

annoyinglittletwerp on July 5, 2011 at 3:55 AM

Good point!..:)

Dire Straits on July 5, 2011 at 3:57 AM

DS: I though CA was in Florida?

annoyinglittletwerp on July 5, 2011 at 3:57 AM

It is in Florida..:)

PS..Geo was using a hyperbole there!..:)

Dire Straits on July 5, 2011 at 4:00 AM

It is in Florida..:)

PS..Geo was using a hyperbole there!..:)

Dire Straits on July 5, 2011 at 4:00 AM

Geo and I don’t get along-so I’ll take your word for it.

annoyinglittletwerp on July 5, 2011 at 4:03 AM

annoyinglittletwerp on July 5, 2011 at 4:03 AM

Trust me..He was..A very good one I might add!..:)

Dire Straits on July 5, 2011 at 4:05 AM

I. AM. SO. SICK. Of. Casey. Anthony.

OmahaConservative on July 5, 2011 at 5:06 AM

Yawn – No surprises here. You could have probably gotten a more scientifically valid poll if you had only sampled members of the Palin household instead of the current membership of HA.

JFS61 on July 5, 2011 at 5:59 AM

Noting the pics at the top of the thread of Palin and MB……

………they both have a pair of cajones that they don’t physically have.

THAT is what we’re looking for.

PappyD61 on July 5, 2011 at 6:27 AM

I do find it funny you continue to try to lump all Palin supporters together into one faceless blob.

unseen on July 5, 2011 at 1:42 AM

LMFAO! Yeah, nobody I know uses the acronym ABP in every other post and accuses all those who aren’t worshipful of hating his/her precious.

MJBrutus on July 5, 2011 at 7:44 AM

OmahaConservative on July 5, 2011 at 5:06 AM

ditto

cmsinaz on July 5, 2011 at 7:58 AM

MJBrutus on July 5, 2011 at 7:44 AM

Does the “M” stand for Malia?

darwin on July 5, 2011 at 8:37 AM

Wow, I was just reading about Organize4Palin in Iowa. I wonder if any other Republicans have anything close to the grass roots support Palin has.

Dongemaharu on July 5, 2011 at 8:50 AM

Shorter Patrick: Palin wins online poll yet again. Palin hardest hit.

SD on July 5, 2011 at 9:13 AM

Wow, I was just reading about Organize4Palin in Iowa. I wonder if any other Republicans have anything close to the grass roots support Palin has.

Dongemaharu on July 5, 2011 at 8:50 AM

Kinda wild eh? It doesn’t appear there’s a Palin presence in Iowa until you scratch the surface then you see it’s everywhere.

darwin on July 5, 2011 at 9:16 AM

Kinda wild eh? It doesn’t appear there’s a Palin presence in Iowa until you scratch the surface then you see it’s everywhere.

darwin on July 5, 2011 at 9:16 AM

I’ve been reading about things like this all over the country. The iron is hot.

Dongemaharu on July 5, 2011 at 9:45 AM

I’ve been reading about things like this all over the country. The iron is hot.

Dongemaharu on July 5, 2011 at 9:45 AM

That’s why an undeclared Palin is second in fund raising among the declared Repoublican candidates in the 2nd Quarter.

kingsjester on July 5, 2011 at 9:54 AM

I’ve been reading about things like this all over the country. The iron is hot.

Dongemaharu on July 5, 2011 at 9:45 AM

Yup. We’re everywhere, we’re organizing, and when she announces people are going to be shocked at how much farther ahead we are than every other candidate. No one else has even poked their head into my (swing) state yet. We’ve got meetings, email lists, and people going out and talking to other people at the ultimate grassroots level.

Game on!

alwaysfiredup on July 5, 2011 at 9:58 AM

All you rabid cult worshippers at the altar of Palin, you know what to do. Sign up with O4P. Don’t wait.

promachus on July 5, 2011 at 3:20 AM

Most states already have groups up and running. You can find contact info (email addresses, websites, Facebook pages, Twitter accounts) here:

http://pa4palin.blogspot.com/p/organize4palin-in-all-50-states.html

steebo77 on July 5, 2011 at 10:07 AM

Hey, that’s one of your fellow Palin supporters. What’s that about the company you keep?

Knucklehead on July 5, 2011 at 1:21 AM

Knucklehead: “I saw Goody Osburn with the Devil! I saw Bridget Bishop with the Devil!”

steebo77 on July 5, 2011 at 10:31 AM

I don’t post here much anymore, but after reading Ishmael’s analysis of his poll results I had to say that he’s a loon. To go through all that number crunching then draw a conclusion based on a counterfactual is nuts–or obsessively anti-Palin.

pugwriter on July 5, 2011 at 11:09 AM

I have concluded that Madison conservative and dire striats are really dishonest debaters. They kind of hide under a well built facade but fooling nobody.
promachus on July 5, 2011 at 2:08 AM

I was trying to think who does Dire remind me of with his little smiley face and his little waves at his buds and then it came to me.., Dopey of the 7 Dwarfs…

CCRWM on July 5, 2011 at 1:51 PM

This poll analysis defines pretzel logic. Guess I’ll wait for the next one…

greeneyedconservative on July 5, 2011 at 1:55 PM

Well that’s good to know that you think idesign, his stealing of other peoples material (that was last week when he was caught red handed) and trouble making ways are o.k. with you. Kind of contradicts what you said a couple ago about some people beclowning themselves.

Knucklehead on July 5, 2011 at 1:36 AM

Great. I ask you not to put words into my mouth, and you take it as tacit permission to put words into my mouth.

/facepalm

gryphon202 on July 5, 2011 at 1:36 AM

That’s how you lose the compliments for reasonableness, gryphon202.

pseudoforce on July 5, 2011 at 8:42 PM

i hope the QOTD is good So far the threads to day have been no interest.

unseen on July 5, 2011 at 9:30 PM

The combinations here are mind boggling.

I do love me some Poll Porn.

WaltzingMtilda on July 6, 2011 at 1:04 AM

I have an appointment with my eye surgeon tomorrow, I’ll ask him about that hormone stuff.

Knucklehead on July 5, 2011 at 1:51 AM

Uhhhhhh…

Gohawgs on July 6, 2011 at 3:03 AM

The “conservatives” at hotair prefer candidates who support their neoconservative foreign policy. I’m shocked.

Apparently you think we need another four years of neocons running the show in Washington?

popularpeoplesfront on July 7, 2011 at 10:28 AM