Marist: Plurality of 43% plan to vote against Obama in 2012

posted at 12:05 pm on June 29, 2011 by Ed Morrissey

Let’s play White House Spin for a moment with the latest Marist poll on Obama’s re-election prospects.  The poll shows that 43% of voters are planning to vote against Barack Obama in the 2012 elections already, while only 36% have decided to vote for a second Obama term.  It’s actually a slight improvement over the last seven months since the midterms.  He’s still got the possibility of a 14-point win in November 2012 by picking up all of the undecideds!  He can start with the 20% of his own party that hasn’t been convinced of the necessity of an encore:

Looking to 2012, 43% of registered voters nationwide report they plan to vote against President Obama in 2012.  This compares with 36% who say they definitely plan to support him.  A notable 21% are unsure.  Little has changed on this question since McClatchy-Marist last reported it in April. At that time, 44% reported they planned to back someone else while 37% said they planned to vote for the president.  18%, at the time, were unsure.

Independents play a key role in Obama’s re-election bid.  43% say they would vote against Mr. Obama in 2012 while 29% are securely in his corner.  Nearly three in ten independent voters — 28% — are unsure.  The president has failed to make inroads with these all-important voters.  In McClatchy-Marist’s previous survey, 47% of independents reported they would not support the president while 32% said they would cast their ballot for Mr. Obama.  21% were unsure.

While 70% of Democratic voters report they will unequivocally cast their ballot for the president and only 10% say they will vote against him, a notable one in five — 20% — are unsure.  Not surprisingly, most Republicans — 85% — don’t plan on supporting the president while just 4% say they will.  One in ten — 10% — are unsure.

The sample split on this poll leaves something to be desired.  The survey has a D+7 sample, 34/27/38, in which Republicans are significantly underrepresented.  That makes the bad news here for the White House even worse, as a more representative sample would likely show Obama in even worse shape than here.

The demographic breakdowns show significant obstacles to an Obama re-election.  The gap in the South is 32/50, for instance, while the normal Democratic stronghold of the Northeast only gives him a weak 5-point edge, 38/33 with 29% undecided.  Obama does better in the West, 42/36.  He loses white voters by a majority, 31/50, men by 14 points at 31/45, and gets edged among women, 40/41 — a surprising result.  Obama trails in both income categories and both education demos, while only winning a 3-point edge among 18-30YOs, another surprising result.

About the best takeaway for the White House is that the percentage of definite votes against Obama has dropped since the midterms by five points, from 48% to 43%.  None of those became Obama voters, however; they all went to Undecided.

Marist also asked about the GOP primary, and Mitt Romney leads it with 19%.  The poll included current outsiders Sarah Palin, Rick Perry, and Rudy Giuliani.  Perry and Giuliani tie for second place at 13%, with Palin fourth at 11% and Michele Bachmann fifth at 8%.  Obama manages to beat all of the Republicans head-to-head — due in part to the sample skew — but does worst against Romney, only leading 46/42.  Giuliani gets the short end of a 48/41 split, Perry trails 48/39, and Bachmann falls 12 points off the pace at 49/37.  Palin does worst at 56/30 for Obama.

So to return to the White House Spin Game, the Marist poll shows him beating all comers … but it looks like it’s mainly by default at the moment.

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Who are these 36%?

Again, any true conservative, who stays humble and responsible, will beat Mr. Obama.

neoavatara on June 29, 2011 at 12:08 PM

This is why we need to nominate “Generic Republican”. He wins every time!

orfannkyl on June 29, 2011 at 12:09 PM

But did they poll dead union members?

CurtZHP on June 29, 2011 at 12:13 PM

But did they poll dead union members?

CurtZHP on June 29, 2011 at 12:13 PM

They don’t have to be union members. Even dead Republicans vote Democrat

Ditkaca on June 29, 2011 at 12:15 PM

Who are these 36%?

The government and dependent classes. From their perspective Obama is doing great.

18-1 on June 29, 2011 at 12:20 PM

Palin does worst at 56/30 for Obama.

How so many people can beg for her to run is beyond me.

nickj116 on June 29, 2011 at 12:22 PM

Who are these 36%?

neoavatara on June 29, 2011 at 12:08 PM

crr6 and 35 of her law school classmates?

Del Dolemonte on June 29, 2011 at 12:23 PM

With a proper sample Obama is down to about one third of voters sticking with him. As for the undecideds, if someone doesn’t know if they will support him or not after all this time I doubt they will be voting for him in the end. Big opportunity here.

forest on June 29, 2011 at 12:27 PM

The head to head is worthless at this point. What the poll does show that is interesting is that Obama’s 2008 excitement factor is gone. Among the young, apparently he’s old news. He’s turned off a lot of big donors who don’t like giving their money to those that trash them publicly. Add to that those who thought they’d do so well in his economy and he’s a gonner IF the GOP doesn’t whif with a Romney, Pawlenty, Santorum or Huntsman.

cartooner on June 29, 2011 at 12:27 PM

it won’t be Bachman. Bachmann’s husband got $137,000 in Medicaid funds

tomas on June 29, 2011 at 12:36 PM

most Republicans — 85% — don’t plan on supporting the president while just 4% say they will. One in ten — 10% — are unsure.

Why are these people Republicans? WTF?

darwin on June 29, 2011 at 12:39 PM

Obama Receives Majority Support Against Palin…Plurality Lead Over Rest of Field

What a shock. /sarc

Again and again and again….

Still, the cult goes on with their silliness.

Moesart on June 29, 2011 at 12:41 PM

What a shock. /sarc

Again and again and again….

Still, the cult goes on with their silliness.

Moesart on June 29, 2011 at 12:41 PM

Yup. Crazy, ain’t it?

nickj116 on June 29, 2011 at 12:43 PM

30% of the Dems may find flight from the messiah-world in 2012 -couple that with most GOP rejecting socialism and arrogant dictator tactics, as acceptable, throw in a few liberataians that will go with him for the loose morals he supports, and you have a victory for the Zombie and illegal vote.Is there a sound way to poll them?

Don L on June 29, 2011 at 12:45 PM

Marist.

Racist.

Coincidence? I think not.

Bishop on June 29, 2011 at 12:46 PM

Yup. Crazy, ain’t it?

nickj116 on June 29, 2011 at 12:43 PM

Quick! Let’s nominate the guy whom polls in July 2011 say will lose to Obama in November 2012 by the smallest number of percentage points!

Aitch748 on June 29, 2011 at 12:47 PM

Obama Receives Majority Support Against Palin…Plurality Lead Over Rest of Field

What a shock. /sarc

Again and again and again….

Still, the cult goes on with their silliness.

Moesart on June 29, 2011 at 12:41 PM

Using your logic … Romney’s our man.

Right?

Obama manages to beat all of the Republicans head-to-head — due in part to the sample skew — but does worst against Romney, only leading 46/42.

darwin on June 29, 2011 at 12:48 PM

What a shock. /sarc

Again and again and again….

Still, the cult goes on with their silliness.

Moesart on June 29, 2011 at 12:41 PM

Yup. Crazy, ain’t it?

nickj116 on June 29, 2011 at 12:43 PM

Yep haters.. we go on us Palin cultists. Find another candidate that has the experience and conservative values and we’ll talk. Not seeing anyone in the field right now. Sorry to disappoint.

davek70 on June 29, 2011 at 12:52 PM

Next to that picture of the Chairman, I read the first word of the headline on this post as “Marxist”

james23 on June 29, 2011 at 12:55 PM

it won’t be Bachman. Bachmann’s husband got $137,000 in Medicaid funds

tomas on June 29, 2011 at 12:36 PM

Let’s be clear on what that means. Her husband treated clients just like a physician does, and he got reimbursements to cover the cost of their care. How does that disqualify Bachmann?

Would it have been better if her husband turned away clients who needed help just because they couldn’t afford to come up with the cash themselves?
You are saying that if you owned a grocery store, you would refuse to do business with a customer who came in to buy food with food stamps? Would you refuse to sell to a retiree who’s funds came from Social Security payments?

Long term, the goal of conservatives should be to get everyone off of government assistance if possible, but that doesn’t mean that all government assistance is unwarranted or unnecessary.

rlyle on June 29, 2011 at 1:05 PM

I love it how Democrats ALWAYS outnumber significantly Republicans in these poll samples. ALWAYS. Yet more people than ever consider themselves conservative. Hardly anyone will label themselves as a liberal. They must really have to work to be sure there are more Dems than Republicans in all of these polls.

search4truth on June 29, 2011 at 1:08 PM

I was talking to a co worker recently (a white female who is a major 0bama cultist). She still adores him, and was going on and on about how “presidential” he sounds when he gives a speech.

I asked her if she ever actually listened to what he said, or was she just responding to his voice like a dog responds to a dog whistle.

She actually thought that comment was kind of funny, but you should have seen the expression of shock on her face when I said that Sarah Palin was smarter than 0bama.

UltimateBob on June 29, 2011 at 1:13 PM

I’d like to see a poll done by one of the bigs, a serious question: for president in 2012, would you vote for Elmer Fudd, or little Bammie?

slickwillie2001 on June 29, 2011 at 1:13 PM

it won’t be Bachman. Bachmann’s husband got $137,000 in Medicaid funds

tomas on June 29, 2011 at 12:36 PM

You are ridiculous. If that’s the best you can do, Bachmann will win.

slickwillie2001 on June 29, 2011 at 1:15 PM

I love it how Democrats ALWAYS outnumber significantly Republicans in these poll samples. ALWAYS.

They must really have to work to be sure there are more Dems than Republicans in all of these polls.

search4truth on June 29, 2011 at 1:08 PM

..respectfully: Late to the dance on this one, podnuh. Ed has been doing about a year of dissecting the ridiculous skews the Kneepad MSM have been doing to keep The Chicago Jesus’s head above water. Some have actually had close to a 50% Dem or Dem-symp distribution. It’s laughable.

The War Planner on June 29, 2011 at 1:18 PM

Who are these 36%?

13% – blacks
9% – union thugs
15% – welfare recipients
10% – govt employees

There is overlap between these groups but all these people make up about 36% of the population.

angryed on June 29, 2011 at 1:19 PM

I asked her if she ever actually listened to what he said, or was she just responding to his voice like a dog responds to a dog whistle.

UltimateBob on June 29, 2011 at 1:13 PM

..at that point did she sit up and bark?

The War Planner on June 29, 2011 at 1:19 PM

How so many people can beg for her to run is beyond me.

nickj116 on June 29, 2011 at 12:22 PM

I suspect most things are beyond you.

Extrafishy on June 29, 2011 at 1:31 PM

Apply those internals to a more realistic electorate, such as 37D / 35 R / 28I, and you get 35.4% for Obama, 45.5% against. Obama would have to get 77% of the undecided vote to win!

Of course, you can’t beat somebody (Obama) with nobody (who is the GOP candidate?), and none of the named Republican candidates beats Obama here. Among the well-known candidates (Romney, Giuliani, and Palin) from their 2008 runs, Romney and Giuliani are close, but Giuliani polled well in 2007 and 2008, then collapsed in the primaries. Perry is 9 points down now (which could be more like 4 or 5 points with a representative sample), but how well do independent voters outside of Texas know him? Could he close the gap if he jumps into the race and starts campaigning?

Steve Z on June 29, 2011 at 2:05 PM

It’s the economy, stupid!

Maybe another “stimulus”?

GarandFan on June 29, 2011 at 2:34 PM

Who are these 36%?

Again, any true conservative, who stays humble and responsible, will beat Mr. Obama.

neoavatara on June 29, 2011 at 12:08 PM

You can get 30 percent to vote for any Democrat. The other 6% or just on the take. Eaters.

CW on June 29, 2011 at 6:10 PM