AP poll: For first time, number who say Obama deserves to be re-elected drops below 50%

posted at 7:01 pm on June 22, 2011 by Allahpundit

Lots of e-mails about this, but the data’s not as bad for him as you might think.

Obama has hit new highs he’d like to avoid – in public disapproval over his handling of the economy in general and unemployment in particular – according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll. In addition, more disapprove of his handling of health care and the federal budget deficit than in the past.

The poll shows that four out of five people now believe the economy is in poor shape…

It’s the first time this year in AP-GfK polling that the respondents saying he deserves re-election have fallen below 50 percent, a demanding challenge for Obama. Economic concern has quickly stripped away the gloss he briefly gained after the death of Osama bin Laden.

It’s not just that his Bin Laden bounce is gone. Last month’s AP poll had a notoriously awful sample, with a 46/29 split between Democrats and Republicans. This month’s is a much saner 43/37. Even so, his approval rating’s still above water at 52/47 despite mortifying data like this on the right track/wrong track question:

…and growing pessimism on whether people think unemployment will increase, decrease, or stay the same:

Note that the trend lines are bad in both cases, which explains why the number who say he deserves to be re-elected is now at 48/47, two points lower than the previous low a few months ago. So why do I say the data’s not as bad for him as thought? Behold the answer when people were asked whether it’s realistic to expect some noticeable economic results during Obama’s first term in office:

Forget last month’s numbers, which were skewed by the screwy sample. Look back at the numbers immediately after he took office in 2009. I would have bet cash money at the time that the trend line on this question would be steadily upward over time as voters became more exasperated with the sluggishness of the economy. Not so; on the contrary, not only has the response been flat over time, but lately as the already halting recovery sputtered and economists started worrying about a double-dip, the public’s actually become slightly more patient with Obama. Amazing. Remember, even The One himself said at the start of his term that if he didn’t have the economy on the rebound in three years, he’d be a one-termer. And yet, looking at these numbers — and the numbers from the recent WSJ poll showing how many people still blame Bush for the recession — I’m starting to wonder if that’s true. I think it could go two ways if he doesn’t turn things around by next year. One: The public will continue to cut him lots of slack well into 2012, but as the election approaches and they realize that this will be their last chance until 2016 to change course, they’ll bail and we’ll see a rapid snowball effect among those blaming him for not fixing the economy. Or two: The public will decide that the current recession is so uniquely horrible, unlike anything since the Great Depression, that it’s unfair to expect any president to make major strides in just one term, which will have the ironic effect of partly neutralizing the economy as an electoral issue. That’s completely counterintuitive given its singular importance right now (fully 93 percent in this poll say the economy is extremely or very important to them, an all-time high), but paradoxically the worse things get, the easier it is for Obama to frame slow growth and chronically high unemployment as some sort of mega-quake or force majeure for which no one could reasonably be expected to have been prepared.

Granted, that argument won’t impress O-haters, but O-haters are a distinct minority:

It’s easier to blame a guy for the smoking crater that used to be your economy when you didn’t like him to start with. But when you did, and do, like him, and he can credibly claim that he’s faced with a once-in-a-lifetime recession? I’m not so sure the “Obama can’t win if unemployment’s at eight percent” rule of thumb is so ironclad after all.

This post is bumming me out, so let me leave you with something that might — might — reflect good news:

The Democrats’ Mediscare campaign against Paul Ryan should, in theory, have the public running screaming into their waiting embrace, but they’re actually six points off of where they were last month. Is that because the Mediscaring isn’t working as well as they’d hoped, or is it just an artifact of last month’s screwy, heavily Democratic sample?

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Dive. Dive. Dive.

faraway on June 22, 2011 at 7:05 PM

Is that because the Mediscaring isn’t working as well as they’d hoped, or is it just an artifact of last month’s screwy, heavily Democratic sample?

dude, we have had 3 weeks of wall-to-wall Weiner. It’s hard to Mediscare someone when they’re laughing so damn hard.

ted c on June 22, 2011 at 7:06 PM

Hope and Change fading fast…

Roy Rogers on June 22, 2011 at 7:06 PM

“… the public’s actually become slightly more patient with Obama.”

Amazing how patient the public can be when the actual numbers and bad news is not plastered all over every media outlets…

… isn’t it?

Seven Percent Solution on June 22, 2011 at 7:07 PM

People are stupid. Obama could be on camera chopping wires in the NYSE and people would cut him slack. Dumb.

andy85719 on June 22, 2011 at 7:07 PM

The education of the electorate is a beautiful thing.

csdeven on June 22, 2011 at 7:08 PM

Behold the answer when people were asked whether it’s realistic to expect some noticeable economic results during Obama’s first term in office:

The question says 2 years, not 4 years.

A pretty big difference.

ButterflyDragon on June 22, 2011 at 7:08 PM

Yeah, but Obama is awesome…..

sandee on June 22, 2011 at 7:09 PM

Why is it still so high?

The country is in free fall. It should be more representative of the percentage of Marxists in the country, say 20-25%.

DeathB4Tyranny on June 22, 2011 at 7:10 PM

the public’s actually become slightly more patient with Obama. Amazing

cripe….better start drinking now before dear leader speaks….

i have no patience with this man, he exacerbated the problem and will continue to blame W

cmsinaz on June 22, 2011 at 7:10 PM

More poll non-sense from notorious Gfk…Hitler’s pollster..for real

You can minus 9-10 percent from Obama’s approval and the “deserves re-election to get the accurate demos

Obama is done.

LeeSeneca on June 22, 2011 at 7:11 PM

Seven Percent Solution on June 22, 2011 at 7:07 PM

ding ding ding

cmsinaz on June 22, 2011 at 7:11 PM

TOTUS getting prepped now…

Obama smoking like a Superfund site…

Valerie Jarret complimenting him on his new suit…

Roy Rogers on June 22, 2011 at 7:12 PM

The public will decide that the current recession is so uniquely horrible, unlike anything since the Great Depression, that it’s unfair to expect any president to make major strides in just one term, which will have the ironic effect of partly neutralizing the economy as an electoral issue.

*shudder*

people wake up, for the love of pete

cmsinaz on June 22, 2011 at 7:13 PM

The country is in free fall. It should be more representative of the percentage of Marxists in the country, say 20-25%.

DeathB4Tyranny on June 22, 2011 at 7:10 PM

13% are black and all the polls show his approval rating in that group is very solid. It is baffling because the economic destruction he has wreaked on our country has hits blacks harder than any other group.

csdeven on June 22, 2011 at 7:13 PM

O crap,I just found this video,perfect timing!!

Are You Better Off four Years ago?!
=====================================

“Defining Moment” Ad
Oct 28 2008
*************

“Defining Moment” highlights that the question is not “are you better off than you were four years ago?” We know the answer to that. The real question is will our country be better off four years from now? On the air…

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vJvkRFKGgGw

canopfor on June 22, 2011 at 7:13 PM

Not that I trust anything from AP, but if the numbers are this bad (that they will admit to), then the REAL NUMBERS must really be bad.

GarandFan on June 22, 2011 at 7:13 PM

Roy Rogers on June 22, 2011 at 7:12 PM

started my adult beverage….

blame W
inheritance
I,I,I,I

cmsinaz on June 22, 2011 at 7:14 PM

Put the cork back in the champagne.

Lots of time between today and Nov 05, 2012.

portlandon on June 22, 2011 at 7:14 PM

Hopeys Political Abyss!!

canopfor on June 22, 2011 at 7:14 PM

they’re…six points off of where they were last month. Is that because the Mediscaring isn’t working as well….
posted at 7:01 pm on June 22, 2011 by Allahpundit

People can’t afford to run their televisions during the summer now and a daily newspaper is out of the question so the propaganda isn’t reaching as many of their target audience. People are deciding with their eyes as their grown children move back home and parents are spending $250.00 a week more than they were two years ago to eat and buy fuel. If they have a job.

Beto Ochoa on June 22, 2011 at 7:14 PM

This guys is beatable and everyone is worried about Palin? We need a nominee who is going to take victory by the horns and usher in a conservative ERA. The Liberals had their progressive era, but we haven’t had conservative governance since Calvin Coolidge. So quit with the we need a RINO to win and back a conservative! With how things are going, Obama will be lucky to win his home state next year!

milemarker2020 on June 22, 2011 at 7:15 PM

started my adult beverage….

blame W
inheritance
I,I,I,I

cmsinaz on June 22, 2011 at 7:14 PM

cmsinaz:Yup…and d*mmitt we need another STIMULUS Speech,
and Cash Infusion,before the Liberal Owned Economy
flat————lines!!:)

canopfor on June 22, 2011 at 7:16 PM

canopfor on June 22, 2011 at 7:13 PM

could only watch the 1st 30 seconds…

*shudder*

cmsinaz on June 22, 2011 at 7:16 PM

And it’s only gonna get worse.

This is what happens when you elect a community organizer with no real world experience.

Tony737 on June 22, 2011 at 7:17 PM

President PeacePrize can start another war early next year, you know, just to get people’s minds off the domestic front.

Bishop on June 22, 2011 at 7:17 PM

canopfor on June 22, 2011 at 7:16 PM

indeed, it will come soon

cmsinaz on June 22, 2011 at 7:18 PM

Carter was still in good shape at this time in 1979 — his bigger threat was considered to be from the left, with Teddy’s looming candidacy, than anything the Republicans were going to throw at him. The ’80 election came down to Reagan meetingnthe threshold that moderates saw him as a viable alternative, and that didn’t get locked in until the debate a wek before the vote.

As nice as it would be to think Obama will be done by this time next year if the economy doesn’t turn around, odds are it’s also going to go down to the final weeks and the debates before the swing voters finally give up on Obama, if the GOP nominee can make the final sale.

jon1979 on June 22, 2011 at 7:20 PM

BREAKING:

TITANIC to resail across the Progressive ocean,
for another poll iceberg,and

**Rendezvous with Destiny!!

**(Shamefully ripped phrase from Ronald Reagan)

canopfor on June 22, 2011 at 7:20 PM

Captain Kickazz threatens the Taliban with a withdrawal of all U.S. forces from Afghanistan, and the schedule this withdrawal will occur.

Moochelle orders extra lobster nuggets…

Roy Rogers on June 22, 2011 at 7:23 PM

Granted, that argument won’t impress O-haters, but O-haters are a distinct minority:

That’s because our side keeps saying things like, “I respect the President”. If he’s hammered the way he should be hammered that’ll change.

SouthernGent on June 22, 2011 at 7:26 PM

Those numbers are still too dangerously high for my liking.

Are that many people gleeful dependent on the govt that his numbers are as high as they are?

Yakko77 on June 22, 2011 at 7:31 PM

canopfor on June 22, 2011 at 7:16 PM
===================
indeed, it will come soon

cmsinaz on June 22, 2011 at 7:18 PM

cmsinaz:It appears,Gerald Celente,weighs in on CoasttoCoast,
at the (4:59 Minute Mark),about the upcoming great
depression Redo!:)
==============================

Coast To Coast AM: Diet & Health / Sunscreen Dangers 6-21-2011
Jun 22, 2011
**************

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hStG7JCU7IM

canopfor on June 22, 2011 at 7:32 PM

He’s black…of course he deserves to be re-elected.

/liberal mindset

The Notorious G.O.P on June 22, 2011 at 7:36 PM

canopfor on June 22, 2011 at 7:32 PM

yowser!

cmsinaz on June 22, 2011 at 7:36 PM

Flush this turd.

Can I say that? Ooops, too late.

Flyboy on June 22, 2011 at 7:37 PM

The poll shows that four out of five people now believe the economy is in poor shape

Must be that fifth dentist who doesn’t think that toothpaste with flouride is a good idea.

mankai on June 22, 2011 at 7:40 PM

mankai

LMAO

The Notorious G.O.P on June 22, 2011 at 7:43 PM

Seriously, well I guess that means for the first time in 3 Years a lot people finally pulled their heads out of their A$$E$$!

bluemarlin on June 22, 2011 at 7:48 PM

Andrew Klavan: Limp Economy? Flaccid Philosophy? Diagnosis: Electile Dysfunction
Uploaded by Pajamasmedia on Jul 1, 2010
***************************************

Did you vote for Barack Obama?

Feeling embarrassed by the results?

Don’t be so hard on yourself;

DE is more common than you think. Nearly 70 million voters may suffer from DE. Have your talk today with Andrew Klavan and find out what you can do to treat DE. You – and your country – will be glad you did
==================

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iPw4_OaHlkA

canopfor on June 22, 2011 at 7:49 PM

Let’s see here. Yahoo offered up today the Obamas: Michelle, is apparently, a singular shining star in Africa. Plus, there’s Barry, himself, who can calm the quiet seas of an infant’s wailing. Obama, the soother.

You are an employed individual, and don’t have a lot of time for news. You’ll park yourself for a few on MSNBC, catch a few lines of the NYT’s. All is apparently good, but for some odd reason, you do notice evaporated store-fronts, more than your share of friends who are out of work, and, well yes, there is that pesky gas price, and, yes, it looks like food is more expensive. But the sound bites paint a spectacular rainbow of color, whenever Obama is mentioned. He is a jewel. So the troublesome gnawing in your brain must come from something else, entirely.

betsyz on June 22, 2011 at 7:50 PM

Seriously, well I guess that means for the first time in 3 Years a lot people finally pulled their heads out of their A$$E$$!

bluemarlin on June 22, 2011 at 7:48 PM

bluemarlin:Ooooh Marlin….I do hope so,but,I have a
nightmaristic feeling,that they left their
brains up there tho!(snark)haha:)

canopfor on June 22, 2011 at 7:51 PM

With any luck the reverse Bradley effect will snowball those #`s straight into the basement as more and more folks become “comfortable” opposing the manchurian loser.

NY Conservative on June 22, 2011 at 7:53 PM

One: The public will continue to cut him lots of slack well into 2012, but as the election approaches and they realize that this will be their last chance until 2016 to change course, they’ll bail and we’ll see a rapid snowball effect among those blaming him for not fixing the economy.

I was reading an article how close polling was in the Reagan_carter election until the last days when the public had to sign up for 4 more years then we know what happened. I think the Obama voters are same in motivations and denial to the Carter voters. They will support him or be non-commital until there is no alternative on election day. Second I will point out this is NOT a busniess cycle recession, it is a reaction to Obama/Dems recession and 17 more months of misery will “waterboard” all but his strongest support. There were 7 percent uncommitted last election at the end in 2008. They wait till there is no other option but vote. He loses all these people. It will be a 47-53 win for Republicans if not worse for Obama

Conan on June 22, 2011 at 7:53 PM

“… the public’s actually become slightly more patient with Obama.”

That’s because he hasn’t been in the news. People like him when they’re not paying attention to him. But when he makes the news, he bumbles and ticks people off. He’s really not very good at his job.

alwaysfiredup on June 22, 2011 at 8:02 PM

How about polling how many think Obama should be in Leavenworth? Then let me know when that number tops 50%.

HalJordan on June 22, 2011 at 8:03 PM

bluemarlin:Ooooh Marlin….I do hope so,but,I have a
nightmaristic feeling,that they left their
brains up there tho!(snark)haha:)

canopfor on June 22, 2011 at 7:51 PM

LOL, I am sure some did!

bluemarlin on June 22, 2011 at 8:08 PM

Is that because the Mediscaring isn’t working as well as they’d hoped, or is it just an artifact of last month’s screwy, heavily Democratic sample?

Dems got Weienered

WisCon on June 22, 2011 at 8:18 PM

I cannot stand the man, never could stand the man, never could understand people who could stand the man. Like many, I sit here, not only daily depressed, but also, daily flabbergasted that anyone could not see the total absence of both soul and intellect. And this means all of MFM, especially O’Reilly (who is like a 6’5 sex fiend, have you noticed), to Krauthammer, who laid it out, with the comparison to the movie, “Being There”, and then tossed the whole idea aside, determined, he was, to portray Barry as some aristocratic brainiac, who is merely befuddled with all sorts of issues coming his way.

The rest of us, are awaiting an actual tidal wave of zombies, who are so stupid, so far-fetched in their
queer belief that “their pick” in the horse-race of minorities, they have the clear winner. Who cares what skin tone? It is so stupid, really the whole idea belongs on a Petri-dish.

betsyz on June 22, 2011 at 8:32 PM

the public’s actually become slightly more patient with Obama.

Obama is likeable to most Americans. Unfortunately, that forms a large part of their political opinions. Studies show that folks tend to vote for candidates who smile more!
We ought to run a likeable challenger such as Pawlenty.

the numbers from the recent WSJ poll showing how many people still blame Bush for the recession

This is why we ought to run against liberalism at least as much as against Obama.

itsnotaboutme on June 22, 2011 at 8:33 PM

Cue Evan Bayh.

Key West Reader on June 22, 2011 at 8:41 PM

Look for a bump in the polls after his tough guy we gotta rebuild our nation speech tonight. He is a smooth talker.

Kissmygrits on June 22, 2011 at 8:54 PM

Last month’s AP poll had a notoriously awful sample, with a 46/29 split between Democrats and Republicans. This month’s is a much saner slightly less insane 43/37.

Fixed.

Del Dolemonte on June 22, 2011 at 9:01 PM

Obama is in a bubble. That bubble will burst when and only when he bursts it personally. He has too much of the culture on his side. Not the news media. The culture. The sitcoms, the Daily Shows, the songwriters.

The election in 2012 is Obama’s to lose. America is content with the golfer in chief.

spmat on June 22, 2011 at 9:02 PM

Look for a bump in the polls after his tough guy we gotta rebuild our nation speech tonight. He is a smooth talker.

Kissmygrits on June 22, 2011 at 8:54 PM

So smooth that a lot of people haven’t heard him say over and over and over again that Americans are going to have to learn to do with less. But no one seems to connect the fact that he was saying this before he was elected and “discovered what a mess George Bush had made of everything.”

Maybe people might start to apply some common sense before the next election. It sure would help if the Republicans could produce someone to call him out, like Reagan called out Jimmeh. Make it clear to America that Obama’s policies are self-fulfilling (ie they fulfill his idea of America, not ours).

disa on June 22, 2011 at 9:25 PM

Obama will see no bump after tonight. He loses credibility every moment the misery index climbs.

Roy Rogers on June 22, 2011 at 9:32 PM

It’s up to the GOP to start blaming Obama for the economy – shutting down drilling, shutting down coal factories, Obamacare, new regulations, printing money, trillion dollar deficits, etc need to be screamed from the rooftops. Lots of those indies in the middle don’t know about this and the only way the MSM will begin talking about it is the GOP candidates start talking about it.

pearson on June 22, 2011 at 9:41 PM

It ought to be around 20%.

scalleywag on June 22, 2011 at 9:53 PM

Except for a very exceptional few, of the same race, who still wear Obama T-shirts, no one, and I mean no one, in public sponsors this imbecilic lay-about. In fact, people have become so vocal, it is embarrassing for me, and I could not stand the man from day one, yet, I would not stand around in a public place and denounce a person, with such gusto, that I have witnessed. As a side note, I have seen exactly one Obama bumper sticker (and I look)since and including 07,08. Like I said, only a couple t-shirts worn by persons of color. But then I’m still astonished that he was ever elected for anything.

betsyz on June 22, 2011 at 9:58 PM

My point being, even listening to the die-hards of die-hard Democrat relatives, who gave their all to this turd, and now have since realized the rashness of their thinking, I don’t think these polls poll well, at all. I don’t ever hear, see, nor smell any positives for Obama, ever. It is either the fever in which the MSM resides, or the outside, other major cities that I am unfamiliar with. But, I live in a major city. So, I am lost, altogether.

betsyz on June 22, 2011 at 10:04 PM

Let me know when it gets down to 40%… hopefully by Labor Day…

Khun Joe on June 22, 2011 at 10:09 PM

Granted, that argument won’t impress O-haters, but O-haters are a distinct minority:

I guess I’m in the minority.

I’ve never seen anyone more full of sh*t in my life.

Wake up, America. This guy is destroying the American way of life.

BuckeyeSam on June 22, 2011 at 10:12 PM

betsyz on June 22, 2011 at 9:58 PM

Curious as to whether you live in a red or blue area. I live in a very blue town in a very red state and even here the O stickers are getting pretty thin on the ground.

Was up in a Midwestern blue state this past weekend and again, same thing. The stickers were there but there weren’t many of them. Nobody brought his name up from morning until night, and I was spending serious time with a couple of hundred liberals at my college reunion.

My sense is that if the election were held today, he’d lose.

My fear is that the MSM is doing their best to make things look bad for him now so that they can engineer a Big Comeback for him later.

Missy on June 22, 2011 at 10:32 PM

The Democrats are trying to scare people on stuff that will supposedly happen down the line. Right now people are going into shock when they fill the gas tanks and buy groceries. And doctors all over the country are not accepting Medicare patients. I would like to meet some of the 33% that think we are moving in the right direction, I’ve always considered myself an optimist, these folks must be amazing.

Cindy Munford on June 22, 2011 at 10:49 PM

You are an employed individual, and don’t have a lot of time for news. You’ll park yourself for a few on MSNBC, catch a few lines of the NYT’s. All is apparently good, but for some odd reason, you do notice evaporated store-fronts, more than your share of friends who are out of work, and, well yes, there is that pesky gas price, and, yes, it looks like food is more expensive. But the sound bites paint a spectacular rainbow of color, whenever Obama is mentioned. He is a jewel. So the troublesome gnawing in your brain must come from something else, entirely.

betsyz on June 22, 2011 at 7:50 PM

Sadly I know a lot of people who still like Obama. It doesn’t matter that 78 million people are going to lose their health insurance because of ObamaCare or that health care will become more expensive than if nothing were done. Or what is going on in the economy.

As Rick Warren twittered: “Never argue against Motivated Reasoning.People who’ve set their views EMOTIONALLY can’t accept logic&facts w/o losing face.”

redeye on June 22, 2011 at 11:21 PM

I’ve never seen anyone more full of sh*t in my life.

x2

Almost everything that comes out of his piehole is a lie or some twist on the truth.

People wanted change and boy did they get it! Not what you expected though was it? sucker.

gdonovan on June 23, 2011 at 5:32 AM