Rasmussen: Romney 33%, Bachmann 19%

posted at 10:45 am on June 16, 2011 by Ed Morrissey

After Monday’s debate, the consensus choices for big winners were Mitt Romney and Michele Bachmann.  Rasmussen polled 1,000 likely GOP voters the next day and confirmed the observation.  Romney leads in their latest survey, but Bachmann gets the eye-popping numbers:

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney continues to lead the race for the Republican nomination, but Michele Bachmann has surged into second place following her Monday night entry into the campaign.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely GOP Primary Voters, taken following the candidates’ Monday night debate, shows Romney earning 33% support, with Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann a surprise second at 19%. Georgia businessman Herman Cain is in third place with 10% of the vote.

The last survey in April showed Donald Trump with a slight lead over Romney, 19/17, with Huckabee close behind at 15%.  The withdrawal of Trump and Huckabee has mainly helped Romney, although it’s possible that this is more a result of the debate than of a narrowing of the field.  At that time, Rasmussen polled the race without any of the front-runners and found that Bachmann had the strongest support in the second tier.  This survey shows Bachmann leveraging that to gain entry to the top tier.

Rasamussen’s survey has a couple of counter-intuitive results as well.  Despite Bachmann’s standing as a Tea Party favorite and the perception of Tea Party opposition to Romney, the two are tied among those who identify as Tea Party members, at 26% each.  But the more interesting result comes in the crosstabs, where Bachmann actually leads the field among independent voters, 23/21 over Romney, with 17% backing Herman Cain, despite being seen by far as the most conservative candidate in the field.  Fifty-five percent rate her as “very conservative,” and the closest to that is Ron Paul at 39%, who gets 8% of independents and 7% overall.  Tim Pawlenty is the only other candidate to get double-digit support from independents at 10%.  Bachmann also leads in the “other” ethnic category (presumably Hispanics and Asians) 29/28 over Romney, and comes in second among black likely primary voters to Romney, 30/24, both of whom beat Cain’s 22%.

The media has Bachmann pegged as an ultra-Republican conservative.  This result may force the media to look a little closer at Bachmann’s base of support, and her reach outside of the Republican Party.  When they do, expect the scrutiny to put more pressure on Bachmann, who hasn’t had a lot of attention due to the perception of being a second-tier candidate.  The Bachmann team should be prepared for an onslaught, but they’re in surprisingly good position at the moment.

One last point: “some other candidate” got only 8%, far below other polling on the field.  Did the debate show, as Cain suggested, that the GOP has a strong field already?

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

Comment pages: 1 2 3

This is pretty amusing. There are a lot of people pushing Bachmann insincerely as an alternative to Palin, while counting on her to not have enough support to win.

Nothing against Bachmann, but I don’t think she has the executive background to be president. But it would be truly hilarious if she were pushed to run as a means of keeping Palin out and preserving the path to the nomination for one Willard Mitchell Romney, and wound up winning the whole thing.

tom on June 16, 2011 at 2:09 PM

I had the same thought. If Palin doesn’t run, I am going to have a grand time watching most of the people who are currently pushing Bachmann make an abrupt 180.

Kataklysmic on June 16, 2011 at 2:12 PM

Voter from WA State on June 16, 2011 at 2:13 PM
hmmm don’t really disagree with poll, but if you are going to exclude certain ppl, when you didn’t last time, like know why.

djohn669 on June 16, 2011 at 2:22 PM

Voter from WA State on June 16, 2011 at 2:13 PM

I wouldn’t care if the polls had my candidate sky high …

These polls – at this point in time – are worthless.

Seriously – Rudy Giuliani was the front runner for the GOP at this point in 2007. Hillary was the “soon to be crowned” nominee, she was that sure of a bet for the Dims.

Yet – go figure – a first term Senator with no executive experience beat them all.

Polls are worthless at this point.

HondaV65 on June 16, 2011 at 2:28 PM

Sarah, decide one way or the other — soon. Sarah has all the conservative charisma; Bachmann wouldn’t make it past Mitt unless Pawlenty and Perry split the vote, and she doesn’t look imposing next to Mittens and Obama. Palin/Bachmann or Palin/Cain for the win!

Bolton: Sec of State
Giuliani: Attorney General
Pawlenty: Treasury Sec
Obama: Newest resident of Switzerland

Aardvark on June 16, 2011 at 2:39 PM

Polls are worthless at this point.

HondaV65 on June 16, 2011 at 2:28 PM

Right. It’s all pre-game show stuff. Like these threads. One wonders if many people here have lived through a political season.

rrpjr on June 16, 2011 at 2:40 PM

Bachmann 19%

Sounds weird. Bachmann climbs from 3% to 19% on the basis of one debate? Although :Limbaugh too has noticed the strangely glowing press Bachmann is getting lately. Hmmmmm.

pseudoforce on June 16, 2011 at 2:43 PM

Right. It’s all pre-game show stuff. Like these threads. One wonders if many people here have lived through a political season.

rrpjr on June 16, 2011 at 2:40 PM

Most of the people here saying “look at these polls, they show Palin can’t possibly win” have lived through many political seasons and know what you say is true. They are willing to be disingenuous to further their larger objective.

Kataklysmic on June 16, 2011 at 2:44 PM

Bachmann showed as much Machismo as any of the other candidates in the debate, and she did it while maintaining her femininity.

What does that suggest about the men involved in this?

If Bachmann can do this in these CNN-biased debates now, I’d be interested to see how she’d do it as President. Wouldn’t you?

Lawrence on June 16, 2011 at 2:46 PM

Maybe what we need is a Bachmann/Palin ticket…

Wuoldn’t that be fun watching all the heads spin?

Lawrence on June 16, 2011 at 2:47 PM

The media has Bachmann pegged as an ultra-Republican conservative. This result may force the media to look a little closer at Bachmann’s base of support, and her reach outside of the Republican Party. When they do, expect the scrutiny to put more pressure on Bachmann, who hasn’t had a lot of attention due to the perception of being a second-tier candidate. The Bachmann team should be prepared for an onslaught, but they’re in surprisingly good position at the moment.

I am not sure where I would put Bachmann. I like a lot of things about her, but I do think her foreign policy comments seemed naive. I think the idea that AlQaida might be present in Libya is more reason to be involved than it is to run away. AlQaida is a parasitic organization always looking for the next Somalia…and in this case there is oil involved. Not good. I also thought the comments that Gaddafi had not done anything to the US were strange. I think Obama has messed up in his handling of the situation, but the truth is the world would be a better place if Gaddafi had been dealt with decades ago.

But other than her slightly Ron Paul like isolationism, I think Bachmann was very impressive at the debate. She is quick and smart and sure of herself.

Terrye on June 16, 2011 at 2:59 PM

Did anyone bother to check how much Bachmann likes earmarks and pork? Or anything else like her made up story about her family history in Iowa she touted while there?

Conservatives need to fact check our candidates like they do the Democrats instead of giving certain candidates a pass and we would be better off. One site has her claim to fame being a Mom and also having foster children. That is not qualifications to run for President but that is what they were alluding.

I am shocked at comments I see. She went to Congress in 2006 and she is now qualified to run for President? Why are our qualifications for experience so low today? What has she done in Congress except start a Tea Party Caucus when in fact most people think the Tea Party should not be run by politicians which is logical thinking.

Polling is a joke right now and as the poster pointed out yesterday in 2007 at this point in time Rudy was leading with 32% and we know where that led.

PhiKapMom on June 16, 2011 at 3:00 PM

pseudoforce on June 16, 2011 at 2:43 PM

Another conspiracy theory? Is this a reverse-reverse theory or the reverse-reverse-reverse psychology theory?

csdeven on June 16, 2011 at 3:07 PM

Sounds weird. Bachmann climbs from 3% to 19% on the basis of one debate? Although :Limbaugh too has noticed the strangely glowing press Bachmann is getting lately. Hmmmmm.

pseudoforce on June 16, 2011 at 2:43 PM

Exactly. It’s not like that debate got Super Bowl ratings.

She climbed because Palin wasn’t included in the poll.

BocaJuniors on June 16, 2011 at 3:26 PM

she climbed because
1. a lot of people want an alternative to Romney
2. she is an alternative to Palin

but its not who is ascendant. wasn’t trump ascendant not to long ago? it is about who has the durable fortitude to win.

i’d still rather see Palin run, and win.

huan on June 16, 2011 at 4:59 PM

I am not sure where I would put Bachmann. I like a lot of things about her, but I do think her foreign policy comments seemed naive. I think the idea that AlQaida might be present in Libya is more reason to be involved than it is to run away. AlQaida is a parasitic organization always looking for the next Somalia…and in this case there is oil involved. Not good. I also thought the comments that Gaddafi had not done anything to the US were strange. I think Obama has messed up in his handling of the situation, but the truth is the world would be a better place if Gaddafi had been dealt with decades ago.

But other than her slightly Ron Paul like isolationism, I think Bachmann was very impressive at the debate. She is quick and smart and sure of herself.

Terrye on June 16, 2011 at 2:59 PM

So you support a war to HELP Al Qaida? >:/

clement on June 16, 2011 at 5:15 PM

Wow, those crosstabs are very interesting.

Good for her. She and Santorum are the only ones really exciting me right now.

-Aslan’s Girl

Aslans Girl on June 16, 2011 at 5:51 PM

I never see people “spin” the result like this …

This is my “spin” on the polls.

33% support Romney – and that means … wait for it – you’re not going to believe this at all …

that means …

fully SIXTY SEVEN PERCENT – want someone OTHER than Romney.

Romney’s still underwater – he needs at least 50% of the party to back him in order to make his nomination have credibility. Where’s he going to get that support? He needs to pick up 27 percent somewhere – at least – and that’s at a minimum.

Oh – I know – maybe when Michelle Bachmann’s voters realize she can’t win – they’ll switch to Romney because he’s almost as firebrand conservative as she is?

Uhm … no.

Romney gets votes from Huntsman supporters – and T-Paw supporters – and both those guys are in single digit support right now.

So if you want a real spin on these polls – there’s one for ya.

HondaV65 on June 16, 2011 at 6:09 PM

So you support a war to HELP Al Qaida? >:/

clement on June 16, 2011 at 5:15 PM

No he wants the US in there so that we can have more influence so that AQ doesn’t.

Which isn’t a bad plan – except for the fact that we’re out of money and Bachmann kind of realizes that we can’t do everything everywhere any more.

HondaV65 on June 16, 2011 at 6:11 PM

No he wants the US in there so that we can have more influence so that AQ doesn’t.

Which isn’t a bad plan – except for the fact that we’re out of money and Bachmann kind of realizes that we can’t do everything everywhere any more.

HondaV65 on June 16, 2011 at 6:11 PM

That certainly isn’t the type of war we are fighting. Obama wants us in the backseat, just what influence are we having again? The only thing we are doing is potentially putting Al Quieda in charge of a country with oil.

clement on June 16, 2011 at 6:56 PM

And another interesting poll:

Gallop: Generic Republican 44 – 39% over Obama

Aardvark on June 16, 2011 at 6:59 PM

Another conspiracy theory? Is this a reverse-reverse theory or the reverse-reverse-reverse psychology theory?

csdeven on June 16, 2011 at 3:07 PM

LOL since Rush was involved it is a variation of the Operation Chaos he ran in 2008. Except in this one he backs someone who will force Palin to come in so that she can claim the title as the only reincarnation of Reagan. Then Bachman will cede her polling numbers to Palin and join her campaign staff. Romney, upon hearing the news will join the pro wrestling circuit as the Undertaker’s manager and Palin breezes to the nomination…. Obama then decides to call it quits after one term and she wins 99.999 percent of the popular vote, second only to Saddam Hussein’s last re-election numbers in Iraq.
Never ending replays of “It’s a Beautiful Day” by U2 will be blasted from the houses of the original ‘nistas…

Bradky on June 16, 2011 at 9:58 PM

Bradky on June 16, 2011 at 9:58 PM

Jeez, Bradky, you’re finally making some sense!

LOL

Tennman on June 16, 2011 at 11:11 PM

If my choices are Romney and Bachmann—-> Go Bachmann!

Dollayo on June 17, 2011 at 12:39 AM

Bradky on June 16, 2011 at 9:58 PM

lol

csdeven on June 17, 2011 at 1:02 AM

Comment pages: 1 2 3