Gallup: Generic Republican 44, Obama 39

posted at 6:51 pm on June 16, 2011 by Allahpundit

In related news, Tim Pawlenty just changed his name to “Generic Republican.”

Jim Geraghty’s feeling cautiously optimistic about the data, and understandably so given that independents favor the GOP 42/32 at this point. Excellent news — but I’m not sure what to make of it given prior history:

In both cases the incumbent ended up losing a lot of ground, fatally in the case of Bush I. If that trend holds, The One’s obviously finished. On the other hand, Gallup notes that Dole led Clinton by five in June 1995 and Mondale led Reagan by nine(!) in June 1983, before the economy finally started to pull out of a nasty recession. Which goes to show, I guess, what we already know. Namely, that unless Obamanomics starts to put a dent in unemployment, this guy is truly done. In fact, I wonder whether public awareness of that political reality might affect voting patterns in the Republican primary. If GDP starts to brighten up in the fall, Obama will suddenly be looking much tougher to beat and conservatives may be more inclined to prioritize electability over principle in choosing a nominee. Good news for the field’s centrists. But if the economy faceplants and we’re looking at a double-dip come New Year’s, voters may calculate that we’re going to win no matter who’s nominated and roll the dice on a grassroots favorite. Consider that a silver lining for the White House, I guess: Since they’re so confident that they can beat a tea partier in the general election, if they keep running the economy into the ground they might get their chance to find out.

Yesterday’s WSJ/NBC poll had O ahead of a generic Republican opponent, 45/40, but since that lead and Gallup’s margin are both within the margin of error, let’s just call both dead heats with a little less than a year and a half to go. Here’s Carney at today’s briefing insisting that The One is focused laser-like on the economy even though he apparently can’t be bothered getting briefed much on it anymore. Click the image to watch.

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

Its a Sign!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

canopfor on June 16, 2011 at 6:53 PM

If Romney’s smart … he’ll change his name to “Generic Republican”.

darwin on June 16, 2011 at 6:53 PM

Now if we can just find this generic guy. Or gal.

CW on June 16, 2011 at 6:53 PM

Romney doesn’t have to change his name…he is the DEFINITION of generic Republican.

That said, what this says to me is what we need is a solid nomination process of ideas. As long as we don’t eat our own, we can retire Mr. Obama.

neoavatara on June 16, 2011 at 6:54 PM

I’d feel better if it was “Generic Conservative”. But, I’ll take what I can get if it means that Moocheles “garden” will get a Roundup bath Jan 2013.

Dingbat63 on June 16, 2011 at 6:56 PM

In related news, Tim Pawlenty just changed his name to “Generic Republican

LOL!..That was good Allahpundit!..:)

Dire Straits on June 16, 2011 at 6:57 PM

Mondale led Reagan by nine(!) in June 1983

Everyone knew who Reagan was at that point. He had 100% name recognition. And we all know that for people with 100% name recognition, polls can’t change because everyone has already made up their mind. That being the case, it sure was a bold move for Reagan to not only steal the ’84 election via voter fraud (no other plausible explanation for his win), but to steal 49 of the 50 states. Seems like overkill… /

Kataklysmic on June 16, 2011 at 6:57 PM

Reagan at this point during the election cycle (June 1979)was only 4 points ahead of Jimmy Carter. Generic is 5 points ahead of Obama.

txmomof6 on June 16, 2011 at 6:59 PM

“If GDP starts to brighten up in the fall…”

That would require inexpensive and abundant energy, less regulation strangling entrepreneurship, and the ability to keep more of your income…

… Start updating that resume, Obowma.

Seven Percent Solution on June 16, 2011 at 6:59 PM

Kataklysmic on June 16, 2011 at 6:57 PM

Bravo.

rrpjr on June 16, 2011 at 7:01 PM

Go Generic!

clnurnberg on June 16, 2011 at 7:01 PM

… Mondale led Reagan by nine(!) in June 1983 …

Unimaginable today.

30 years from now people will be shocked when they read about how close Obama came to getting re-elected.

Tony737 on June 16, 2011 at 7:03 PM

I’m changing my name legally to ‘Anybody But Obama’. Who want to contribute to my campaign?

michaelo on June 16, 2011 at 7:04 PM

Boy, I hate independents. Just pick a side already you gutless womps.

portlandon on June 16, 2011 at 7:05 PM

I’ll be voting for the GOP nominee for the Presidency in November 2012. Although I *DO CARE* who that is, I am more concerned about the damages that a continued use of our government by Obama-And-Associates will inflict on our nation and all our futures, both this nation’s and our Allies’.

Thus, my priorities, in this order, for voting November 2012:

— the GOP nominee (as in, anyone not Obama, anyone not Democrat); and,

— not letting up the heat afterward on the GOP if and as they nominate and we elect a Liberal on the GOP ticket.

Lourdes on June 16, 2011 at 7:06 PM

Everyone knew who Reagan was at that point. He had 100% name recognition. And we all know that for people with 100% name recognition, polls can’t change because everyone has already made up their mind. That being the case, it sure was a bold move for Reagan to not only steal the ’84 election via voter fraud (no other plausible explanation for his win), but to steal 49 of the 50 states. Seems like overkill… /

Kataklysmic on June 16, 2011 at 6:57 PM

This is apples and oranges really. An incumbent president is going to feel the wrath of a bad economy and will benefit from an upturn. Not saying She-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named can’t turn around negatives here mind you, just that she is not an incumbent so I don’t think this proves it can be done.

msmveritas on June 16, 2011 at 7:06 PM

This is what kills me about Huck and others walking away. This is 1980 all over again. Obummer can raise 10 billion and it wont help if people are as angry and anxious as they are now.

Southernblogger on June 16, 2011 at 7:06 PM

Basically…..this poll means nothing. It’s definitely not a good predictor of election outcomes.

Apologetic California on June 16, 2011 at 7:06 PM

As long as we don’t eat our own, we can retire Mr. Obama.

neoavatara on June 16, 2011 at 6:54 PM

Exactly.

Lourdes on June 16, 2011 at 7:07 PM

Meaningless. The candidate will not be generic, it will be a specific individual.

Red Cloud on June 16, 2011 at 7:09 PM

portlandon on June 16, 2011 at 7:05 PM

You don’t get it. The majority of this country could care less about libtard or conservative ideology. What they care about is whether it is working or not.

Southernblogger on June 16, 2011 at 7:09 PM

ABO! ABO!

gophergirl on June 16, 2011 at 7:10 PM

Never “misunderestimate” the Republican establishment’s ability (“I’m unemployed, also” – laughter) to blow it.

Marcus on June 16, 2011 at 7:12 PM

ABO! ABO!

gophergirl on June 16, 2011 at 7:10 PM

Hear!..Hear!..:)

Dire Straits on June 16, 2011 at 7:12 PM

This poll doesn’t mention where the different challengers vis a vis the incumbent president, only the eventual nominee. I would be curious to know where George H.W. Bush and Howard Baker were in comparison to Jimmy Carter at the same time that Reagan was beating him 49-45.

txmomof6 on June 16, 2011 at 7:13 PM

If GDP starts to brighten up in the fall, Obama will suddenly be looking much tougher to beat and conservatives may be more inclined to prioritize electability over principle in choosing a nominee.

I hope it’s not may, but will be more more inclined

sherry on June 16, 2011 at 7:14 PM

Am I the only pessimist who wonders if this says more about the current field of GOP contenders than anything else? Head to head match-ups still favor Obama. What else could that mean? I fear that if we nominate a vanilla rino who doesn’t lay out a true difference, voters will stay with the known vs the boring unknown new guy.

Short version: Romney as the nominee for me is Obama-lite and not a winner. Tell me I am wrong…please!!

MississippiMom on June 16, 2011 at 7:15 PM

Who do you suppose the DNC will support as the Tea Party candidate? Worked in 92. Or better yet the GOP can support a Socialist Party candidate to take votes away from Obama.

Tommy_G on June 16, 2011 at 7:18 PM

I may just have to enter the race.

JammieWearingFool on June 16, 2011 at 7:19 PM

But her decision to address Obama’s purported lack of empathy is notable—largely because Bachmann emerged into public notoriety as a vanguard of the slash-and-burn “tea party” movement, which largely took a mistrustful view of government in any context. Moreover, the term “empathy” is one that has long been derided by conservatives.

It’s a sign that she, along with Mitt Romney and her other rivals for the GOP nomination, view the economy, and especially the unemployment rate, as the incumbent’s biggest weakness, and that forging a connection with voters unhappy with the country’s direction will be the key to victory.

Toward that end, it’s just the beginning of what promises to be a concerted Republican effort to frame Obama in a manner similar to the way George H.W. Bush was brought down by Bill Clinton and Democrats in 1992.

Schadenfreude on June 16, 2011 at 7:20 PM

Generic Republican/Palin FTW!

carbon_footprint on June 16, 2011 at 7:20 PM

MississippiMom on June 16, 2011 at 7:15 PM

The problem is, you’re not wrong. Mitt has more in common with Obama than he does with Reagan.

Tommy_G on June 16, 2011 at 7:20 PM

JWF/Generic beats Obama, yeahhhh!

Love your site.

Schadenfreude on June 16, 2011 at 7:21 PM

I think the GOP should move the convention to Dec 2012.

Ask America to vote for Candidate To Be Decided Later. Obama is so reviled, I think we win 38 states.

rwenger43 on June 16, 2011 at 7:21 PM

There was only one great Ronald Reagan, with all his fleas. Please let the good man/president rest in peace.

Schadenfreude on June 16, 2011 at 7:21 PM

The lowest point in Carter’s presidency as far as polls was July 2, 1979.

txmomof6 on June 16, 2011 at 7:23 PM

If Romney’s smart … he’ll change his name to “Generic Republican”.

darwin on June 16, 2011 at 6:53 PM

I was wondering who this Gene Ric person was…

Fallon on June 16, 2011 at 7:23 PM

… Start updating that resume, Obowma.

Seven Percent Solution on June 16, 2011 at 6:59 PM

Heh. What resume?

Lanceman on June 16, 2011 at 7:28 PM

MississippiMom on June 16, 2011 at 7:15 PM
The problem is, you’re not wrong. Mitt has more in common with Obama than he does with Reagan.
Tommy_G on June 16, 2011 at 7:20 PM

I know. I just cannot wrap my head around why he is the “front-runner”. That boring liberal half-breed used car salesman (phony phony phony) is our “most electable” choice? Heaven help us if that is true.

MississippiMom on June 16, 2011 at 7:31 PM

Hopeys extensive resume……………..

Agitational Organizational Community Crock Stir’er!!

canopfor on June 16, 2011 at 7:31 PM

Generic Republican.

You can’t spell rePubLIcAN without PALIN.

SouthernGent on June 16, 2011 at 7:40 PM

Perry supported Al Gore in the 1988 Democratic presidential primaries and was chairman of the Gore campaign in Texas.

jaime on June 16, 2011 at 7:47 PM

I’ll take the generic republican over ACORN loving, Keynesian socialist, sheet stirrer anyday.

dthorny on June 16, 2011 at 7:48 PM

MississippiMom on June 16, 2011 at 7:31 PM

Why is Romney a “half-breed”, in your opinion?

jaime on June 16, 2011 at 7:50 PM

MississippiMom on June 16, 2011 at 7:31 PM
Why is Romney a “half-breed”, in your opinion?
jaime on June 16, 2011 at 7:50 PM

Half liberal – half DC republican. That’s all I meant.

MississippiMom on June 16, 2011 at 7:54 PM

The economy is getting worse and fast. Those numbers will therefore get worse for Obama.

I don’t believe the WSJ/NBC poll btw.

WannabeAnglican on June 16, 2011 at 7:56 PM

Just saw on Fox that Pelosi’s income last year was $35 MILLION, UP 62% from the year before. So maybe the recovery has happened? /s
This year’s will suck because she can’t use USAF jets for transportation.

Dingbat63 on June 16, 2011 at 8:00 PM

MississippiMom on June 16, 2011 at 7:54 PM

Makes sense, in a way.

jaime on June 16, 2011 at 8:08 PM

You don’t get it. The majority of this country could care less about libtard or conservative ideology. What they care about is whether it is working or not.

Southernblogger on June 16, 2011 at 7:09 PM

You got any evidence to back up that statement? I don’t buy that there are that many actual VOTERS who don’t care about ideology. Just you believing it and stating it, as fact, in no way convinces me that it’s true.

JannyMae on June 16, 2011 at 8:10 PM

Perry supported Al Gore in the 1988 Democratic presidential primaries and was chairman of the Gore campaign in Texas.
jaime on June 16, 2011 at 7:47 PM

http://www.politifact.com/texas/statements/2010/jan/16/debra-medina/debra-medina-claims-rick-perry-was-democrat-and-al/

Some more info on that. Perry claims that Gore is what turned him from dem to repub.

I don’t know much about Perry, other than what he seems to have done for the Texas economy.

MississippiMom on June 16, 2011 at 8:13 PM

The One is focused laser-like on the economy

Well that explains all those trips and campaign finance get-togethers.

GarandFan on June 16, 2011 at 8:18 PM

Dude! With numbers like this why is anyone backing Mittenz?!? Outside of the Rockefeller Republicans, that is…

RocketmanBob on June 16, 2011 at 8:25 PM

I don’t know much about Perry, other than what he seems to have done for the Texas economy.

MississippiMom on June 16, 2011 at 8:13 PM

Yeah, I don’t know much about any of them except for Romney, since he ran last time.

Sometimes, when I see a nugget I just throw it up there. I don’t read all the threads, or all the comments, so I don’t usually know if someone has posted it before.

My state doesn’t have an early primary so I don’t have to know quite this early who to support. Soon, though.

jaime on June 16, 2011 at 8:27 PM

Generic/Bolton 2012!

fossten on June 16, 2011 at 9:02 PM

Mittson Romneyfeller.

HalJordan on June 16, 2011 at 9:42 PM

Gallup: Generic Republican 44, Obama 39

Good news. Now all that remains is for Generic Republican to enter the race.

rukiddingme on June 16, 2011 at 10:52 PM

This is what kills me about Huck and others walking away. This is 1980 all over again. Obummer can raise 10 billion and it wont help if people are as angry and anxious as they are now.

Southernblogger on June 16, 2011 at 7:06 PM

Who ever wins, is likely to have to preside over people when they realize austerity has come. Who wants to be President when many American cities could look like the streets of Greece.

Does Huckabee have the ability to fix the economy? I bet even he is doubtful. Should he run if he really doesn’t think he could do it? Huckabee has enough experience to realize just how bad things really are. But he has almost zero business experience.

Romney seems to be the only one who really thinks he can do it. Maybe he is delusional, or maybe his Bain experience really is transferable in a way that no one else’s experience is.

It is a set of problems and a man’s career that line up almost perfectly. But there is only one, who has that. Romney’s experience is very rare.

Obama can be beat this year. But the next President has a very good chance they will fall flat on their face.

Two years from now we could be throwing stones at Romney because he can’t do it either.

petunia on June 17, 2011 at 1:33 AM

In both cases the incumbent ended up losing a lot of ground, fatally in the case of Bush I

However, that was only because of Perot and our electoral system.

Theophile on June 17, 2011 at 5:32 AM

However, that was only because of Perot and our electoral system.

Theophile on June 17, 2011 at 5:32 AM

And the fact that he was a squishy liar who stabbed Republicans in the back without good reason.

SKYFOX on June 17, 2011 at 6:21 AM