CBS poll: OBL bump gone for Obama

posted at 8:51 am on June 9, 2011 by Ed Morrissey

Miracle of miracles!  CBS finally produced a poll that has proper sample demographics, and just coincidentally, Barack Obama’s approval rating drops to 48%.  But the poll also contains some headscratching results, such as that only 31% think the economy is going in the wrong direction — a rather stark contrast from yesterday’s CNN poll showing almost half believing that a Great Depression is nigh:

President Obama’s approval ratings fell to below 50 percent for the first time since his ratings spiked following the news of the death of Osama bin Laden last month, according to a CBS News poll released on Wednesday.

Just 48 percent of respondents approve of the way he is doing his job, compared to a 57 percent in the days immediately following news of bin Laden’s demise.

Obama’s approval numbers hovered in the range below 50 percent for most of the past year, though they spiked after the early May announcement that a team of elite Navy SEALs had captured and killed the al Qaeda.

About 79 percent of the poll respondents said the economy is in bad shape, essentially unchanged from April but higher than the 74 percent who reported the condition of economy as poor in January.

The 31% who believe the economy is getting worse is actually lower than what CBS found in April, which seems pretty counterintuitive.  Economic indicators have all declined since the last poll, and they have been extensively covered by the media.  That would suggest that enough people to comprise seven points in April’s 38% somehow have concluded that the economy is improving despite all indications to the contrary.

On the CNN point, though, I have a theory.  The “Great Depression” question is, on further reflection, a “begging the answer” question.  If asked, people already inclined toward pessimism will feel compelled to agree to demonstrate their concern.  We’re much more likely to enter 70s-style stagflation than a Great Depression, at least from current indicators.

On the issues, Obama still does well on terrorism and on Afghanistan, but both dropped significantly since the previous, post-OBL mission ratings.  Approval on his approach to terrorism dropped from 72% to a still-solid 63%, above last summer’s 51%.  Obama dropped ten points on Afghanistan, from 61% to 51%.  He’s back below a majority on foreign policy at 47%, down from 51% last month.  On Libya, Obama has definitely lost the American public, with only 30% backing American involvement and 59% opposed to it.

But the economy is the big issue for Americans (48% in this poll rate it #1, with budget deficits at #2 with 10%), and Obama still has horrendous approval numbers on this issue.  He’s at 37%, up from 34% last month but down slightly from April’s 38%.  On the budget deficit, he’s all the way down to 30%.  This will be a big problem for Obama as he pushed Congress for a debt-ceiling increase, which 69% of Americans oppose.  Only 24% support the President’s demand to hike it — and only 35% of Democrats, while 54% of his own party opposes Obama on it.

Finally, the sample on this poll has a D/R/I of 30/30/40.  That undersamples both Democrats and Republicans, but only slightly, and definitely equally.  Amazingly, CBS actually had almost the same number of Republicans and Democrats in the sample (310/312, respectively), and then weighted it to favor Republicans slightly (329/317).  It’s a remarkable shift from previous CBS polls.  We’ll see if they continue to play it straight in the future.

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CBS is in “horse race” mode because they want a reason to promote their new anchor covering the story

bobnox on June 9, 2011 at 8:55 AM

We’re much more likely to enter 70s-style stagflation than a Great Depression, at least from current indicators.

God bless you for your eternal optimism, Ed.

Doughboy on June 9, 2011 at 8:58 AM

I follow a couple ultra-lefties on Twitter just to see – I noted the past 24 hours they’re trying to revive the “Captain Kick-Ass”. Did word go out from Kos?

Marcus on June 9, 2011 at 9:00 AM

Too many polls, it doesn’t seem like we should be able to pick and chose the ones that give us the answers we want.

Cindy Munford on June 9, 2011 at 9:00 AM

It was never there

unseen on June 9, 2011 at 9:00 AM

Marcus on June 9, 2011 at 9:00 AM

Do they show a picture of Mrs. Obama’s arms when they talk about Capt. Kick-Ass? Seldom have I seen a less kickassery president.

Cindy Munford on June 9, 2011 at 9:02 AM

It was never there

unseen on June 9, 2011 at 9:00 AM

Nah, it was there. But it was always destined to be temporary barring an economic turnaround. What was dumb of the drive-bys was to oversample Dems to the degree they did in some of those polls. It’s gonna make the bump’s disappearance look like an even worse decline.

Doughboy on June 9, 2011 at 9:02 AM

Cindy Munford on June 9, 2011 at 9:02 AM

Actual tweet:

If there are al Queda in the US, you should know, we DON’T have a flake in the White House now!! We’ll get your ass!! Get the f*ck out NOW!!

Marcus on June 9, 2011 at 9:04 AM

Marcus on June 9, 2011 at 9:04 AM

Hmmmm, that sounds racist and anti-immigration to me. Why do they hate brown people with bombs?

Cindy Munford on June 9, 2011 at 9:08 AM

On the CNN point, though, I have a theory. The “Great Depression” question is, on further reflection, a “begging the answer” question. If asked, people already inclined toward pessimism will feel compelled to agree to demonstrate their concern. We’re much more likely to enter 70s-style stagflation than a Great Depression, at least from current indicators.

Two of the seemingly abandoned houses on my block now do have people renovating them. The two houses that had been on sale for over a yer did recently get sold, but now there are two more that are on sale. i think we are on a “muddling through” period. It’ll only turn into a Great Depression if Dear Liar gets reelected, or a squishy RINO gets in.

rbj on June 9, 2011 at 9:11 AM

I am still convinced ALL of these polls have the bradley affect built in. Most of those polled don’t want to appear racist, so they rank obama more favorably than they probably do when they talk to their close friends and family. Even the uber libs in my family are very silent about Obama today. Sure, they will vote for him because they are one issue voters (pro-abortion, go figure), but I know they are not as enamored with him as they were. Most of my extended family can’t stand him, and are becoming very vocal about it.

karenhasfreedom on June 9, 2011 at 9:11 AM

It’s a remarkable shift from previous CBS polls. We’ll see if they continue to play it straight in the future.

Departure of Katie Couric? Just a theory…

Wethal on June 9, 2011 at 9:11 AM

Cindy Munford on June 9, 2011 at 9:08 AM

Oh, come now. Don’t you feel safer?! Do you want to turn back?

Marcus on June 9, 2011 at 9:12 AM

Doughboy on June 9, 2011 at 9:02 AM

nope both rassmuseen and gallup showed no bounce. the only polls that showed a bounce were those with skewed samples. Obama never got a bounce and the reason he never got a bounce was his grandstanding and trying to claim credit.

unseen on June 9, 2011 at 9:15 AM

Since the death of Obama boosted him based on his foreign policy actions, given the current state of the economy the odds were pretty good the bounce wasn’t going to last all that long. And Obama pretty much wiped out his own foreign policy boost in mid-May, when he screwed up the Israeli-Palestinian situation with his statement on the 1967 borders. Whatever bump up he had after bin Ladens death from seeming more in charge and savvy on foreign affairs was pretty much trashed once Netanyahu got his turns to speak.

jon1979 on June 9, 2011 at 9:16 AM

I wonder what will happen to Obama’s numbers if the country knew he was trying to give our missle defense secrets to Russia?

unseen on June 9, 2011 at 9:16 AM

The BHO PIC is the same look discussed in this article
http://cityroom.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/06/07/that-look-that-weiner-spitzer-clinton-look/

400lb Gorilla on June 9, 2011 at 9:17 AM

Ed, the photo of the President that you used looks just like “The Look”
http://hotair.com/headlines/archives/2011/06/08/photo-the-look/

itsnotaboutme on June 9, 2011 at 9:17 AM

God bless you for your eternal optimism, Ed.

Doughboy on June 9, 2011 at 8:58 AM

I got my first birdie in over 20 years last night on the golf course. I’m optimistic about everything today.

Ed Morrissey on June 9, 2011 at 9:17 AM

400lb Gorilla on June 9, 2011 at 9:17 AM

*sigh* OK, you beat me by a few seconds!

itsnotaboutme on June 9, 2011 at 9:18 AM

Awwwwwww so sorry dear leader…you can always start another war….oh wait

cmsinaz on June 9, 2011 at 9:18 AM

We’re much more likely to enter 70s-style stagflation than a Great Depression, at least from current indicators.

Oh great, if this means we go back to car designs like the the Bobcat and Pacer, and music that sounds like it came from Paul Anka or Connie Francis, and watch movies like Blackula or Roller Boogie, I might just end it all right now.

Alden Pyle on June 9, 2011 at 9:23 AM

nope both rassmuseen and gallup showed no bounce. the only polls that showed a bounce were those with skewed samples. Obama never got a bounce and the reason he never got a bounce was his grandstanding and trying to claim credit.

unseen on June 9, 2011 at 9:15 AM

As much as it pains me to say, part of the reason Barry didn’t get any notable bounce from Rasmussen is because he was already hovering around 50% BEFORE bin Laden was capped. Don’t ask me how given that Scottie surveys likely voters which theoretically should give Obama his worst ratings out of any of the polls.

Doughboy on June 9, 2011 at 9:23 AM

Since the death of Obama …..

jon1979 on June 9, 2011 at 9:16 AM

heh Freudian slip

Alden Pyle on June 9, 2011 at 9:27 AM

nope both rassmuseen and gallup showed no bounce. the only polls that showed a bounce were those with skewed samples. Obama never got a bounce and the reason he never got a bounce was his grandstanding and trying to claim credit.

unseen on June 9, 2011 at 9:15 AM

Very true… Truth is, Obama has an approval rating of less than 40%. The Progressives have played Americans for fools, which does work for a period of time. Pain caused by financial hardship and financial insecurity trumps ideology with a large percentage of Americans. This is what will show it’s face come November of 2012.

Keemo on June 9, 2011 at 9:28 AM

Doughboy on June 9, 2011 at 9:23 AM

I don’t put much thought inot polls. they tend to push a narrative instead of measuring the narrative. But the fact that Obama is polling around 50% is simply a function of the country being divided. and that division is due to the political stratigists that look at the country as a pie to slice up with wedge issues. it has been the MO for the last 23 years and if it continues the country will be destroyed.

unseen on June 9, 2011 at 9:30 AM

No. The additional contempt I developed when he tried to steal credit from the seals, is still there.

Slowburn on June 9, 2011 at 9:32 AM

heh Freudian slip

Alden Pyle on June 9, 2011 at 9:27 AM

Too much caffeine last night. Not enough this morning…

jon1979 on June 9, 2011 at 9:34 AM

It was never there

unseen on June 9, 2011 at 9:00 AM

Nah, it was there. But it was always destined to be temporary barring an economic turnaround. What was dumb of the drive-bys was to oversample Dems to the degree they did in some of those polls. It’s gonna make the bump’s disappearance look like an even worse decline.

Doughboy on June 9, 2011 at 9:02 AM

Not according to Gallup’s daily tracking, which showed O’bama got something like a brief 1-2 point bounce for a few days. Check out Polling Report for their daily track for May.

Del Dolemonte on June 9, 2011 at 9:44 AM

Congrats on the birdie, Ed. I’m just taking up golf, and man is it frustrating.

fossten on June 9, 2011 at 9:47 AM

Ed:

I have a theory too…

CBS is lying about their sampling demographics…

PatriotRider on June 9, 2011 at 9:49 AM

Marcus on June 9, 2011 at 9:12 AM

Turn back, get another horse, something.

Cindy Munford on June 9, 2011 at 9:54 AM

PatriotRider on June 9, 2011 at 9:49 AM

I hope you’re right. 48%?? After two and a half years?? Really?? God help us.

Eren on June 9, 2011 at 9:54 AM

Is this a poll of (registered/likely) voters or “adults”?

RedRedRice on June 9, 2011 at 9:56 AM

Ed Morrissey on June 9, 2011 at 9:17 AM

Yes, congrats on the birdie. Now just wait till you get that first ‘hole-in-one’! Then you will be over the moon!

lukespapa on June 9, 2011 at 9:56 AM

Ed Morrissey on June 9, 2011 at 9:17 AM

Congratulations!!!

Cindy Munford on June 9, 2011 at 10:07 AM

LOL. No way in hell this guy has a 48% approval rating, I’m sorry.

Even here in Jersey its hard to find anyone to stand up for him anymore.

Go RBNY on June 9, 2011 at 10:09 AM

I got my first birdie in over 20 years last night on the golf course. I’m optimistic about everything today.

Ed Morrissey on June 9, 2011 at 9:17 AM

LMAO… That one sweet shot followed by the putt that went in will keep you coming back for at least another decade.

Keemo on June 9, 2011 at 10:17 AM

I got my first birdie in over 20 years last night on the golf course. I’m optimistic about everything today.

Ed Morrissey on June 9, 2011 at 9:17 AM

..all things are possible! Good work, old son.

The War Planner on June 9, 2011 at 10:42 AM

I am still convinced ALL of these polls have the bradley affect built in. Most of those polled don’t want to appear racist, so they rank obama more favorably than they probably do when they talk to their close friends and family.

karenhasfreedom on June 9, 2011 at 9:11 AM

I’ve also noticed that many more who “went along with the liberal crowd” are more apt to admit they did not vote for Obama.

I guess the left has a growing number of Liberals In Name Only.

Roy Rogers on June 9, 2011 at 10:42 AM

God bless you for your eternal optimism, Ed.

Doughboy on June 9, 2011 at 8:58 AM
I got my first birdie in over 20 years last night on the golf course. I’m optimistic about everything today.

Ed Morrissey on June 9, 2011 at 9:17 AM

Hitting a pigeon with a wicked slice doesn’t count…

Seriously, CONGRATS!!

Khun Joe on June 9, 2011 at 10:52 AM

there’s a reuters/ipsos poll showing obambi handily beating any repub challenger. cant find any specifics so not sure what the sample was. anyone else see that story?

chasdal on June 9, 2011 at 10:56 AM

At 48% I am sure Obama is very, very happy.
Unbelievable how high his approval ratings are.
If true, Obama is truly the teflon President.
I think the entire country could collapse and Obama would still get a 48% approval rating. Wait! It already is…

albill on June 9, 2011 at 11:00 AM

Just 48 percent of respondents approve of the way he is doing his job

Margin of error: 3%

Margin of deceit: 7%

Real number: 38%

Bruno Strozek on June 9, 2011 at 11:42 AM

If this is a CBS poll Obama is probably really at 28%…. I don’t trust anything that CBS, NBC, ABC, NYT, LAT, CNN, MSNBC, WAPO, NPR or any of the Leftist Media Machine puts out. It’s all manipulation , propaganda and outright lies!

CCRWM on June 9, 2011 at 12:49 PM

The “deat cat bounce” is just a ‘dead cat’.

Schadenfreude on June 9, 2011 at 1:46 PM

The “dead cat bounce” is just a ‘dead cat’.

Schadenfreude on June 9, 2011 at 1:47 PM

I doubt the sample of this poll also. If it doesnt reflect the reality of a center right country the sample is bad.

We’re much more likely to enter 70s-style stagflation than a Great Depression, at least from current indicators.

Gotta disagree with you on this Ed, no offense, but the current situation doesnt track the 70′s. Carter idiot though he was/is did not drown us in debt. (Yeah he did plenty of other knuckleheaded things for sure)

Also Carter is the one who removed food and fuel from the inflation calculations, because he said they were too volatile.

dogsoldier on June 9, 2011 at 4:31 PM

CBS poll: OBL bump gone for Obama

Not necessarily.
Think about it, he could be still holding point for getting OBL, but has dropped even further down in other areas.

Wasn’t it something like an 9 point jump?
Now if OBL didn’t happen his overall might be 9 point low than it currently is.

Obama’s approval rating of 48% today would be 39% if he hadn’t gotten OBL.
Or lower.

DSchoen on June 9, 2011 at 4:32 PM