Democratic insiders: Weiner’s chances of survival are slim

posted at 9:43 pm on June 6, 2011 by Allahpundit

I’ll bet that same headline ran about Ted Kennedy after Chappaquiddick, which was a much worse scandal. Fast-forward 10 years and Teddy was threatening to upset a sitting president in the Democratic primary.

Don’t underestimate the left’s ability to forgive a true-blue progressive.

Many of New York insiders contacted by The Huffington Post thought Weiner might revive himself, but only if there wasn’t another graphic or lurid chapter to the scandal. That might be overly hopeful, they added, predicting a slow drip of damaging revelations that could last all summer in New York’s already heated media market.

“He lied. He carried on a deception for a week in the national media,” said one influential and disgusted New York Democratic operative. “He should be hounded out of office.”

A fellow lawmaker was also pessimistic about Weiner’s survival. “I don’t think so,” the legislator said of the congressman maintaining his post. “I think the leadership has already turned on him.”…

“How is he going to raise money? Who in the delegation is going to campaign with him?” one New York Democrat wondered, noting that Representative Lee resigned over less…

On top of that, one New York lawmaker noted that the state is about to go through a redistricting of House seats in which it will lose two districts. There would be little incentive to protect a disgraced Weiner in a district that was not drawn to protect minority voting rights.

Granted, Teddy was a Kennedy! and Anthony is a, er, Weiner, but all’s not lost. His mayoral chances are shot, of course, at least in the near term: New Yorkers aren’t about to give him a promotion after he got caught e-mailing pics of his dork to lady chat buddies. I think he’d have a hell of a hard time winning reelection to the House too if this story had broken six months or a year from now, with little time left to repair his image before the campaign started rolling. In that case Democratic leaders probably would have tried to force him out before the GOP nationalized the issue. As it is, he’s got time to lie low and wait for people to get bored with this story. If I were advising him, I’d tell him to avoid the cameras for the rest of the summer and then come roaring back in the fall as the loudmouthed, table-pounding, confrontational liberal the left knows and loves. Whatever the issue du jour is come September — Medicare reform, probably — he should seize it and take any opportunity the media offers him to talk about it, even at the risk of igniting a new round of “wiener” jokes online. The more outspoken and hard-left he is, the more predictable “comeback!” press coverage he’ll get and the more the nutroots will embrace him as a true champion who didn’t let the Evil Wingnutz destroy him. If he plays his cards right and stays out in front on the issues they care about, by the time next spring rolls around, the Democratic leadership will be too worried about alienating his fans to pull the trapdoor on him via redistricting or otherwise. A centrist Democrat in his predicament would be in deep trouble (or would they?), but a progressive hero will benefit from “we can’t spare this man — he fights” logic among the base.

And don’t forget, he has powerful patrons in New York Democratic circles who’ll go to bat for him if need be. Exit quotation from his mentor, Chuck Schumer: “[Weiner] remains a talented and committed public servant, and I pray he and his family can get through these difficult times.”


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canopfor on June 6, 2011 at 10:24 PM
LOL!..Nice post..Great song selection for Anthony Weiner!..:)

PS..Good to see you tonight friend!..:)

Dire Straits on June 6, 2011 at 10:29 PM

Dire Straits:And to you as well!:)

canopfor on June 6, 2011 at 10:34 PM

Being a Dem, his career is far from over. All this is but a resume enhancement.

TXUS on June 6, 2011 at 10:37 PM

Weiner finished?

Please…

We’ve had donks hiding their pickles up under-aged boys backsides getting ‘standing O’s’ from their peers.

If he goes, it’s because he hasn’t sold his soul to the right ‘devil’; otherwise he ain’t going anywhere.

CPT. Charles on June 6, 2011 at 10:37 PM

He said he tweeted the underpants photo as a joke. He said it was only 6 women. He said he was sorry. He said he never cheated on his wife. He said he never met any of these women in person.

He said he was hacked. That was a lie.

He said, he said, he said. He lied.

Paul-Cincy on June 6, 2011 at 10:38 PM

Being a Dem, his career is far from over. All this is but a resume enhancement.

TXUS on June 6, 2011 at 10:37 PM

well, his…resume…certainly needs enhancement.

Fighton03 on June 6, 2011 at 10:39 PM

Is the marriage a sham? He is obviously a sexual fantasist who probably can’t perform well with an actual human being. Anotherwords, he’s a compulsive masturbater. He can actually say, “I did not have sex with that woman.”

No Niks on June 6, 2011 at 10:42 PM

Democratic sex scandals are done with ‘nuance’. He’ll stick around, and the idiots in his district; to whom he LIED, will vote him right back into office. Just like Charlie.

GarandFan on June 6, 2011 at 10:43 PM

Monday, June 6, 2011
Did Anthony Weiner Break Any Laws? A Summary of Briefs, Laws and Ethics
*****************

Using the analysis I prepared earlier for Business Law, presciently titled *A Brief Summary of Law and Ethics, let’s take a look at the legal and ethical consequence of Congressman Anthony Weiner’s startling admissions at a news conference this afternoon.

*(For Bus 340 and 345: A Brief Summary of Law and Ethics)

http://professorellerman.blogspot.com/2011/04/for-bus-340-341-and-345-brief-summary.html
———————————

The question is whether Congressman Weiner violated any criminal or civil laws, or ethical standards in his conduct, and what would be the consequences if he did. These facts are undisputed: Congressman Weiner now admits that he:
*********

Took pictures of himself in various lewd or sexually suggestive positions

Sent them, along with sexually explicit texts, to
At least six women who are, according to him, as young as 21 over the course of three years;

In the process of trying to tweet the picture to one of them, he inadvertently published a picture of his turgid penis in boxer briefs, making it and her identity available to his 45,000 Twitter followers for less than an hour;

Took other pictures of himself in various forms of undress — some apparently from his office — and sent them privately to other women;and then

Lied about the twittered picture when it was discovered, saying he didn’t send it but allowing that it might be him.
I’m going to provide the Law analysis from the earlier post and then apply it to the facts:

There are three basic levels of social control in society: Criminal Law, Civil Law, and Ethics.

Brief Conclusion: Some criminal statutes could come into play in Weiner’s actions:
**************************

Cyberstalking or sending pornography to children. If any of the women he was conversing with was under 18, criminal cyber-stalking laws would come into play. Ignorance of their age is not relevant.
Using Federal resources for personal use. If that is Weiner’s congressional office in the photos, or computers at the office or phone lines were used, even the de minimus use of them for personal use would violate Federal law. There is no possible way to define these actions as constituent services, given their purely private nature and the fact that the participants were not, as far as we can tell, voters in his district.
Lying to Federal Investigators in the context of an investigation is a Federal violation of the Patriot Act and a felony — just ask Martha Stewart, who served jail time for it. It looks like Weiner was careful to avoid asking for a federal investigation based on his lies; time will tell if in private conversations with Capitol police or the FBI he lied. If he did, it’s a crime.
Lewd Conduct. There are state statues that variously criminalize the depiction or showing of an erect penis in public, even if it is covered. Washington and D.C. law would come into play. Further, there is an allegation that there is another picture out there of an explicit nature; that picture would be subject to the same state laws. However, both crimes require a victim, and no one here seems to be complaining about receiving the pictures.
(More…………)

http://professorellerman.blogspot.com/2011/06/for-anthony-weiner-brief-summary-of-law.html

canopfor on June 6, 2011 at 10:45 PM

And of course, don’t forget that Glenn Beck took on Weiner months ago. But we’re constantly reminded that “Beck’s crazy”…

bofh on June 6, 2011 at 10:50 PM

Sorry, but his credibility is shot forever more. There is no way he can go back on talk tv as the loud mouth progressive because everyone and their grandmother will come right out and ask him if he’s telling the truth.

He was such a convincing liar and did it with such ease that it will haunt him for the rest of his political life.

ButterflyDragon on June 6, 2011 at 10:52 PM

Sorry, but his credibility is shot forever more.

ButterflyDragon on June 6, 2011 at 10:52 PM

Ah it means nothing. Just ask TNeloms. /

CW on June 6, 2011 at 11:03 PM

As one of his constituents, I want him to step down immediately. He has no credibility, and cannot do an effective job in standing up for me. I anticipate dignified representation and not a laughing stock who might have emailed people under 18. With what other photos loom and the lack of promises he can give us, he must now step down.

As redistricting looms, it is important for me to be given some semblance of a vote, given population declines in other areas, it should not be NYC that loses a seat, but I believe this is one way that my vote will further be denied. Weiner, must for his constituents, stand down.

amazingmets on June 6, 2011 at 11:24 PM

His career will be over if any of these tweethearts are proven to be underage girls. Otherwise, the Democratic Leadership call for an “ethic investigation” is just more Kabuki theater.

Mutnodjmet on June 6, 2011 at 11:28 PM

Democratic insiders: Weiner’s chances of survival are slim

Naw. He’s a New York dyed-in-the-wool liberal. He’ll run for re-erection and win.

/

Left Coast Right Mind on June 6, 2011 at 11:52 PM

While the left forgave Teddy almost instantly for his summer driving problem, Kennedy did have the good sense to skip the next two presidential election cycles and be content to bide his time in the Senate before going for the gold in 1980 (because Jiimmy Carter wasn’t liberal enough).

That’s the question the Democrats — especially the ones in New York — have to decide. If they forgive Weiner, will he respond by laying low for at least the next couple of election cycles to allow people to forget, or will he try to resume his role as the House Democrats’ biggest camera hog a few months from now, or worse, still think he can win the 2013 mayoral election.

Liberals like Weiner are a dime a dozen in New York, and as bad as Mayor Mike has been, he still won the last three elections by running to the right of the Democrats’ actual nominee. The Dems don’t need Weiner to field a crazed tax-’em-until-they-bleed liberal in 2013, but are scared a run by Weiner could hand the election over to William Bratton, the police commissioner who may run in 2013 as a Republican. The Dems haven’t won a mayoral race in New York since 1989 (thanks to the incompetence of Obama prototype David Dinkins); if Bratton wins, they might not get back into City Hall until 2021 at best. No way they don’t hack Weiner off at the … stump, before they let that happen.

jon1979 on June 7, 2011 at 12:04 AM

In his own district, Weiner’s constituents would re-elect the guy if he dropped a live grenade into a department store, killing 300 shoppers. But outside of that, Weiner’s career is finished. The Democrats have a very loose and elusive morality line but Weiner has managed to cross even that.They will shun him like a leper.

The problem is not only the lack of morality-the lying, the weirdness and the implications that we could be dealing with a full-grown sexual predator that needs registration, but the fact that the feckless turd (clearly lacking Clinton’s silver tongue) turned an initial molehill into a mountain through his incompetence-lashing out and blaming everybody except himself for the predicament.

But the most damaging blow to Weiner is that his image (Megan MeCain’s “good Democrat”)has been shattered perhaps irreparably. He has disintegrated from “shining knight” to “sex pervert” (and an inept clownish one at that) and it is highly likely that more damaging evidence and revelations will soon be forthcoming. Add a possible high publicity divorce to new allegations (not to mention endless Letterman and Leno late night jokes) and this guy will eventually slink out the back door.Bye bye!!!

MaiDee on June 7, 2011 at 12:04 AM

I don’t think so. The mood of the country is MUCH different than it was, say, in Kennedy’s time. America is awake.
I’m thinking Weiner’s career is over.

Murf76 on June 7, 2011 at 12:07 AM

Ah it means nothing. Just ask TNeloms. /

CW on June 6, 2011 at 11:03 PM

I tried googling TNeloms and I got a few tidbits here and there.

But who is he?

ButterflyDragon on June 7, 2011 at 12:39 AM

As impressive as the guy who got over 40% running against Weiner was, is the fact he had some lousy campaign decisions.

He spent a good few weeks solely focusing on the Ground Zero Mosque, which was a bit of a distraction from the economy!

amazingmets on June 7, 2011 at 12:56 AM

But who is he?
ButterflyDragon on June 7, 2011 at 12:39 AM

A very troubled soul mate of crr6.

arnold ziffel on June 7, 2011 at 1:22 AM

I’ll believe he’s done when they escort him out in handcuffs or when he resigns.

Until then, I’ll be expecting dirty tricks and subterfuge.

ClintACK on June 7, 2011 at 3:08 AM

Weiner-Spitzer is the better name for the inevitable CNN talk show.
jbohanon on June 6, 2011 at 10:00 PM

How bout “CNN, Spitzer on Weiner”

DSchoen on June 7, 2011 at 5:12 AM

He’ll not only win reelection, but our Senatorette will have him here in Minnesota, side by side with Bill Clinton, to get the women of Minnesota to cough up their money.

Nothing gets leftist women hotter, than a roomful of Marxist perverts.

MNHawk on June 7, 2011 at 5:51 AM

Clinton’s and Spitzer’s scandals were probably more acceptable, IMO. Lewinsky worked for BJ and Spitzer hired and paid for his gals. Weiner, OTOH, is a skeevy online pervie that’s snapping pics of himself and emailing/twittering them. Say what you want about how advanced people are with social media, thats still just freaking weird.

ted c on June 7, 2011 at 5:58 AM

Every time he makes a “sincere” charge, the thought in the back of everyones mind will be “that’s what he said about Weinergate”…
Clinton was forever haunted by “depends on what is is”, or “I didn’t have sex with that woman”…he never was trusted again after that, and to this day still ridiculed.
Conservatives will just scoff at Weiner, and say “He was sincere when he was falsy accusing other people, what makes you think is isn’t lying this time”…MSNBC, and their clones, will be the only ones that ever take him serious again.

right2bright on June 7, 2011 at 7:24 AM

Well. You did say something truthful demonstratable about the NY rep; his pictures also show he is definitely hard left.

Old Country Boy on June 7, 2011 at 9:21 AM

Democratic insiders: Weiner’s chances of survival are slim

Better Headline: “Get your buns outa here, Weiner!” Dem Insiders Say.

Dr. Charles G. Waugh on June 7, 2011 at 10:20 AM

How better can one sum it other than Weiner’s career goes putz!

LCT688 on June 7, 2011 at 10:33 AM

As it is, he’s got time to lie low and wait for people to get bored with this story. If I were advising him, I’d tell him to avoid the cameras for the rest of the summer and then come roaring back in the fall as the loudmouthed, table-pounding, confrontational liberal the left knows and loves.

Probably “good” advice, but could Weiner accept it? He seems to have a lot of time on his hands, living his sexual fantasies in mid-afternoon, fancying himself as Adonis, and summer with its long Congressional recess and lots of lightly dressed women would probably hold lots of temptations for a man so inclined.

Could he come “roaring back” in the fall? With the Democrats in the minority, wouldn’t Botox Barbie Pelosi prefer a different spokesperson than Weiner, with the majority Republicans ready to pounce on the earlier “culture of corruption” meme that Pelosi pinned on them during the Mark Foley scandal?

NY state will lose 2 Congressional districts in the next election, and Democrats will control the re-districting process. In order to avoid the risk of losing a NYC district to a Republican, they will probably merge Weiner’s district with part of a safe Dem district, and let another Democrat “primary” Weiner out.

It’s true that Ted Kennedy survived the Chappaquiddick scandal, but he was the last surviving brother of a “martyr” President and Attorney General. But Weiner’s claim to fame is…his weiner?

Steve Z on June 7, 2011 at 10:36 AM

Democrats have no shame gene. They were born that way so it’s okay.

I say, he’s not going any where.

petunia on June 7, 2011 at 11:16 AM

Weiner’s NY ratings checklist:

-Progressive/Marxist (Check)
-A Government Solution for Everything (Check)
-You’re a victim mentality (Check)
-Truth is relative (Check)
-Wipes with the constitution (Check)
-Thinks founding fathers were idiots (Check)
-Global warmingClimate Change is real (Check)
-Blames Bush on regular basis (Check)
-Lies when necessary (Check)
-Good at lying ( )

Hey NY, 9 out of 10 aint bad. He’s a keeper.

ClanDerson on June 7, 2011 at 12:01 PM

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