Hot Air candidate survey results: June edition

posted at 8:40 pm on June 2, 2011 by Patrick Ishmael

Sarah Palin wins. Rick Perry places. Herman Cain shows. Mitt Romney fourth, and Tim Pawlenty fifth. Charts and analysis follow. Interactive map at the end.

It looks like Palin’s bus tour is getting her back into the survey groove she had earlier this year. The graphs to date:

The obvious eye-popper is Perry’s share of the vote in his first survey. Where’d all those votes come from? And why didn’t Pawlenty do better after Daniels’ exit, as we’d expected?

Those questions are easily answered when we dig a bit into our data. Take a look at the votes Perry gained from other candidates (the second column). And then, look at the 2nd choice column.

Perry is occupying Pawlenty’s space, and obviously the space of a lot of candidates, given that Palin and Cain don’t escape unscathed, either. It’s an unusual, cross-party coalition judging from the “formerly voted for” column. Will be interesting to see how Perry’s fortunes fair in subsequent surveys. But for now at least, it looks like he’s got a broad base of support.

And lastly, the map. This month I’ve included only the top five vote getters to make the map load faster and to make it easier to see how the heavy hitters stack up regionally. Feedback in the comments, or join me on Twitter.


This post was promoted from GreenRoom to HotAir.com.
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The main reason that Obama won in 2008 and remains viably popular is that the extremely influential media and cultural elite have formed a virtually impenetrable cordon sanitaire to protect him.

As long as Republicans show deference to the media and their rules of engagement this will remain the case.

There is ONE potential candidate who has repeatedly demonstrated that she will not play by the rules, but still has a major impact on the discussion. It’s time for the yahoos to wake up and figure out that the woman running rings around one of the most powerful groups in American politics is not ‘dumb’ but playing the game at a higher level than they are. Krauthammer and others are standing on the sidelines telling us that Jordan can’t play basketball while Jordon keeps hitting the outside shots and slam dunks.

Wake up.

Palin 2012

DaMav on June 2, 2011 at 11:44 PM

canopfor on June 2, 2011 at 10:53 PM

Enjoy it..It is all good!..:):)

Dire Straits on June 2, 2011 at 11:48 PM

Outside of name recognition, is Palin really a better candidate than Cain, Bachmann and Perry? It seems like conservatives burn so much passion to rally around her (understandbly) when the usual crowd smears her that they haven’t really considered her objectively as a candidate.

A number of the candidates who received just above or under single digits votes (in this poll) were actually actively involved in policy making or advocating change. Rand Paul fared a little better than his dad, are you kidding me. Rick Perry is the governor of the ONE state that apparently shows siginificant jobs gains. Gavin Newsom went to Texas to find out what’s going on, and the city of Vernon (?) is running radio ads warning Texas not to “mess” with their jobs.

Mad Kimchi on June 3, 2011 at 12:15 AM

abandoned her governorship for nothing. If someone reaches that high of a level in their career they usually have something else lined up. She seems to be coasting and doing “look at me” media events instead with nothing lined up.

offroadaz on June 2, 2011 at 9:18 PM

Hey, look at this, this guy can read the liberal talking points, bet you he doesn’t even need to write them on his hand…
You forgot:
Her kids have funny names
She had an affair with Todd’s partner
Trig isn’t her son
She spent too much money on her clothes
She doesn’t spend enough money on her clothes
She kills animals
She can see Russia from her kitchen
Heck ya man, you missed a couple of good ones…let’s go, you will be kicked out of the Soros union….

right2bright on June 3, 2011 at 1:16 AM

Krauthammer and others Old white guys are standing on the sidelines telling us that Jordan Palin can’t play basketball while Jordon Palin keeps hitting the outside shots and slam dunks.

Then Palin walks over to the Referee’s table, kicks it over, and tells them that they are crooks, and to get the eff out of this house, before I lose my temper and allow the crowd tear you into little pieces, capice?!

(Just to make it absolutely clear for those who don’t want to get it.)

drunyan8315 on June 3, 2011 at 1:34 AM

Outside of name recognition, is Palin really a better candidate than Cain, Bachmann and Perry?

Mad Kimchi on June 3, 2011 at 12:15 AM

Yes.

Bachmann has no executive experience, Cain has no elected experience at all. Perry’s record isn’t as conservative as many make it out to be.

True conservatives with executive experience, those don’t grow on trees, but are exactly what we need.

Rebar on June 3, 2011 at 1:34 AM

When Dems nominate someone, they all get BEHIND their candidate and vote. When Repubs nominate someone, they nitpick about ideology until Nov. 7 and lose. I love Sarah but she is not the best candidate. All who follow her are beginning to look and sound like Obamaite…emotion over common sense. Do you want a winner? The nominate someone who can beat the b*****d.

AReadyRepub on June 3, 2011 at 1:57 AM

PS Just because Sarah can say all the right things that ring your bells, didn’t Obama use the same tactics in 2008?

AReadyRepub on June 3, 2011 at 1:58 AM

PSS Should read Then nominate someone who can beat the b*****d. (Love typing that)Heh

AReadyRepub on June 3, 2011 at 2:00 AM

AReadyRepub on June 3, 2011 at 1:57 AM

They’re all snarky when they’re trying to win the party’s nomination. Do you not remember Obutthead and Shillary? It was brutal.

DanaSmiles on June 3, 2011 at 8:51 AM

they nitpick about ideology until Nov. 7 and lose.

No, they don’t nitpick over ideology. They nitpick about things like this:

I love Sarah but she is not the best candidate. All who follow her are beginning to look and sound like Obamaite…emotion over common sense. Do you want a winner? The nominate someone who can beat the b*****d.

AReadyRepub on June 3, 2011 at 1:57 AM

pseudoforce on June 3, 2011 at 9:05 AM

@drunyan8315 – exactly

DaMav on June 3, 2011 at 9:15 AM

Outside of name recognition, is Palin really a better candidate than Cain, Bachmann and Perry?

Mad Kimchi on June 3, 2011 at 12:15 AM

Palin is definitely stronger than Bachmann. Bachmann speaks to a narrower band and has less of the larger-than-life characteristics that can get an undecided to flip

Palin is stronger than Cain because Cain is so new he carries a question mark. He can more easily lure the undecided with his generic confidence, but he has to get the ones who worry he might be a sleeper. He hasn’t been tested for weakness, and the first test is offten the last. (So far, I like him, but a ‘so far’ is not reassuring)

This primary has been poisoned by the manipulation of the last primary. Giuliani moving to enter the race does not help. People got pulled all different ways last time and ended up with McCain.

Romney, like Palin has the benefit of familiarity. People are fairly sure he won’t change colors later.

This election, the trust is gone and the world as we know it is at stake. People hate the pols who got us here. The best credentials are trustworthiness, and being an outsider. People will be highly stressed about unknown variables. Any pol who thinks the public will shoulder more burdens before the pols give up something will take a beating

entagor on June 3, 2011 at 9:34 AM

holy navel gazing batman

hanzblinx on June 3, 2011 at 10:08 AM

Question for you HotAir folks: given that we submit some limited political demographic info for these, if you took away our choices for candidates, what predictions would you make from just the demographic info?

In other words, what’s the political makeup of hotair readers? 30% Libertarian? 50% conservative? etc.

Pablo Snooze on June 3, 2011 at 10:26 AM

It appears that a strong component of the results we’ve seen is a significant level of dissatisfaction with Romney and Palin. First Trump and now Perry have garnered significant support without really campaigning. That’s the textbook case of widespread unhappiness with the party’s frontrunners. The “anybody but____” crowd seems larger than usual this election cycle.

secarr on June 3, 2011 at 11:10 AM

widespread unhappiness with the party’s frontrunners
secarr on June 3, 2011 at 11:10 AM

That’s a good thing. It means people are paying attention.

gh on June 3, 2011 at 11:14 AM

Last I heard, Obama was still ahead of Palin. Has that changed? Who are the independents preferring? Does Rasmussen still show it is Obama?

I don’t care who leads the polls. I just want to be sure it is someone who can beat Obama.

Voter from WA State on June 3, 2011 at 11:09 AM

Yeah, Obama leads Palin. Barely. Hell, Nixon is challenging Obama. Obama, with the press fully engaged, is barely keeping his head above the most feared conservative.

That has to grate hard on the WH. Eventually, the press will be just run out of ways to hide the idiots in charge. Obama’s day of reckoning.

BobMbx on June 3, 2011 at 11:39 AM

I posted this on the headline thread yesterday:

I know a conservative when I see one. Perry, Cain, Palin, Bachman, Santorum. Those are the ones we have. Perry and Palin have both not been perfect conservatives in their prospective offices and none of the 5 are perfect candidates.

But all of them are true conservatives and all of them are more electable in the general than Romney or a moderate. The question is, which of the 5 are the most electable in the GENERAL. I don’t think Santorum has much of a chance in the primary or general.

I still like Cain, unless he doesn’t get stronger by the end of the summer and unless he makes any huge unrecoverable blunders.

But I suspect the best candidate will be Perry. The most electable conservative in the general. The most broad appeal in the Republican party. He will mute Romney for the people looking for a traditional mainstream candidate, even though Perry is conservative and Romney is moderate. He has credibility with Independents and when he criticizes Obama.

Perry has been governor from a large and complicated state for 10 years with a proven track record and pretty well vetted. If in all those years the only things that people want to criticize are the Corridor and the vaccine and maybe one other thing I can’t remember, then he’s golden in my book. Everyone makes mistakes and Perry didn’t push them over the wishes of his constituents when he saw they are unpopular.

There are no perfect candidates. Let’s grow up and stop looking for one. We need to wake up to the seriousness of the Obama situation. Unlike any other time in my life. Perry may have similarities to the Texan Bush, but in the general he will be his own man with his own record. Yet still have traditional backing and money.

And Independents will be happy to vote for Perry. Especially after 4 years of a radical, arrogant socialist.

Again, I don’t thinkany of our conservative candidates are unelectable. And I will vote for anyone (even a moderate) in the general. But I think our moderates will lose in the general. Boring and no guts or credibility to take it to Obama.

Elisa on June 3, 2011 at 1:36 PM

And Independents will be happy to vote for Perry. Especially after 4 years of a radical, arrogant socialist.

Elisa on June 3, 2011 at 1:36 PM

If this is true, then it doesn’t matter who we run. To me, Perry is too establishment, too comfortable with the status quo. It looks different because he’s a Texan and their status quo is qualitatively different from the rest of the country. But where was he when ObamaCare was passing? When has he come out and attacked the Dems? How did he assist the nation in 2010? I just don’t recall him being out in front.

alwaysfiredup on June 3, 2011 at 3:07 PM

Elisa, I favor Palin because she has gone on offense and she is frankly pissing off the main stream media. I think she can get her message out by bypassing the main stream media. The traditional politicians (aka WHITE GUYS) really don’t have that reach around that Palin has to the voting public.

And the media is going to villify anyone we nominate. Palin has already been through the gauntlet, there is nothing left to hang on her neck. So therefore, she will be able to avoid the meatgrinder distraction and stay on message point throughout the entire electoral season. Anyone else in the GOP field will have to go through the main stream meat grinder once they are the runaway frontrunner and/or the actual nominee.

And, frankly, I think Palin has the most credibility in energy policy and small government. She has been the most on point with cutting spending. She has done her homework, contrary to what krauthammer keeps pontificating. While I like Perry, I voted for him to be governor when I lived in Texas, he hasn’t been out there doing the overseas speeches, etc.

If Palin doesn’t run, I will support Perry as my first alternate choice.

Michelle Bachman is not ready for prime time. She should concentrate on being the spending hawk in the House. If we do a good enough job in the next election getting more tea party type candidates elected, she can get a party leadership position in the house and do a much better job at getting real spending reductions accomplished. I would support her for Speaker. We need someone in that position with balls and sadly I don’t think Boehner even realizes he is supposed to have a pair.

karenhasfreedom on June 3, 2011 at 3:08 PM

“Outside of name recognition, is Palin really a better candidate than Cain, Bachmann and Perry?”

uh, yes.

short answers – cain is a pizza man who’s never done anything and has no record, bachmann is a congresswoman with ZERO legislative accomplishemnts and has a deep democratic background, perry signed a state version of the dream act and is pathetic on illegal immigration and is not even liked in his own state.

just one reason amoung many for each of those pretenders why they are not ‘as good” as palin

sidewinder22 on June 3, 2011 at 5:17 PM

After Mitt Rahm-ney’s embrace of leftist global warming – his numbers ought to sink down near contention with the Newt for the bottom. Talk about shooting your self in the foot -is he running against Obama in the Dem primaries?

Don L on June 3, 2011 at 6:34 PM

I like Palin not only because of her record, but because she can handle the media with ease. If she’s gone and someone else were to get the nomination, they’ll go full tilt after that person way more than they’ve gone after Palin and there’ll be new dirt to talk about. Until I see someone else, anyone really, who can handle the media better than Palin and has been vetted as much as her, Sarah is the one to beat. GOP candidates ALWAYS cower in front of the liberal media. Sarah doesn’t and people like strong leaders.

MrX on June 3, 2011 at 7:04 PM

alwaysfiredup on June 3, 2011 at 3:07 PM

Unlike my Republican Governor Christie (NJ), Perry had Texas join the other 26 states in suing over Obamacare. I think Perry was one of the earliest Governors to say Texas wouldn’t participate in Obamacare, way before it even passed. Recently he told the legislature to stop creating an Obamacare Health Benefits Exchange in Texas, because it roots Obamacare into the system.

Elisa on June 3, 2011 at 10:57 PM

karenhasfreedom on June 3, 2011 at 3:08 PM

I agree with you to a point, but I’m not sure Palin will be able to bypass the media. The “voting public” isn’t with Sarah right now. We are, but we are far from representative of the voting public, unfortunately.

Reagan was able to do it because there wasn’t a 24/7 media then and because by his second year, he was beloved by the American people. Might Sarah come to that point one day? It’s possible. But by 2012, I think the best we can hope for is that she overcomes her negatives enough to win (if she is nominated) and she will have to use the media for that.

She is using the media this week, in fact. It’s going over well with you and me. But I don’t know about the general public. I’m not even sure they are listening. But maybe Sarah is training the reporters for the future. Having them chase her around for any bit of a story. Kind of like a fraternity hazing or army boot camp to get them in line for the campaign. Lol

I agree that the media will TRY to vilify anyone we nominate, but I don’t know if they will succeed, especially to the extent they have with Sarah. Sarah won’t let the media distract her, but the problem might be that she won’t be heard above the stupid media nonsense that comes her way continually.

Some of our other candidates may not have this problem. The garbage on Sarah has taken root in a lot of the public mind. It may have to do with her being a woman. This is something talked about very little, but there is a glass ceiling out there still for the Presidency and women are open to different criticisms.

It’s still early and she may be able to change public opinion yet. I don’t think it is impossible. 3 years is a long time, but maybe she has some tricks up her sleeve and maybe people will be ready to listen when the next election gets closer. Right now they tune her out.

We will know by Christmas. But we can’t ignore her negative polling numbers.

Elisa on June 3, 2011 at 11:24 PM

@ karenhasfreedom on June 3, 2011 at 3:08 PM

You’ve laid it out really well. The lack of a true offnsive has been my main criticism of all recent previous contenders. She spend 10 times the amount of time tearing away at the media/obama/soros “collective” than any two other candidates combined and she basically maintains the 11th commandment with really admonitions to those in her own party…she does attack the person she always plainly presents a gentle rebuttal to what she perceives as policies errors in her party and uses MASSIVE sweeping strokes against the socialist (equating Obama to the Captain of the Titantic…classic!!!!

RedLizard64 on June 6, 2011 at 2:30 AM

‘Twas to be expected as Sarah remains the best potential candidate availiable to America today. ;o)

DannoJyd on June 6, 2011 at 11:35 AM

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