CNN poll shows Giuliani leading GOP field

posted at 3:15 pm on May 27, 2011 by Ed Morrissey

It didn’t take long for CNN to add Rudy Giuliani to its crowded-field polling in the Republican presidential nomination race, and the former New York mayor ends up at the top of a crowd.  Giuliani barely edges Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin for first place, but at 16%, it’s more like a five-way tie:

Call it a sign of how unsettled the GOP presidential field remains: Two of the three people at the top of new national poll in the battle for the Republican nomination may not even run for the White House. And a CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey also suggests that there is not a lot of enthusiasm about any of the major candidates.

According to the poll, which was released Friday, 16 percent of Republicans and independents who lean towards the GOP say they would most likely support Rudy Giuliani as their party’s nominee. One point behind, at 15 percent is Mitt Romney, with Sarah Palin coming in at 13 percent.

The first question is whether Giuliani is actually running.  According to CNN’s sources, he’s not doing much about it at the moment:

Giuliani, who was a candidate in the last presidential cycle, is also considering another bid, but an adviser tells CNN that the former New York City mayor is not taking active steps toward getting in the race other than making recent appearances in New Hampshire, which holds the first primary on the road to the White House.

According to CNN’s polling of Republicans and independents planning to vote in GOP primaries, Giuliani only gets tepid enthusiasm from the respondents.  Only 27% of respondents claimed they would be enthusiastic about his nomination — but that was also the highest among the respondents.  Palin got edged at 26%, followed by Romney at 21%, Ron Paul at 20%, and Newt Gingrich at 16%.  When combined with “pleased but not enthusiastic,” Romney leads with 70%, followed by Giuliani at 68%, Paul at 63% (really?), Palin at 56%, and Gingrich in the rear at 50%.

How about others who haven’t tossed their hats in the ring yet?  CNN asked about four prominent Republicans: Paul Ryan, Chris Christie, Rick Perry, and Jeb Bush, who finish in that order.  Only Ryan scores a positive number for running versus not running (+5); Christie is even at 45 each, Perry is a -10 at 40/50, and Bush has a whopping -19 at 39/58.

CNN’s take on the meaning is probably close to reality, which is that the sudden jump for Giuliani doesn’t necessarily represent a mandate for his candidacy.  It looks more like primary voters are waiting to be convinced even more than waiting for someone new to jump into contention, formally or informally.  The field is close enough that most have a shot at making their case for nomination, at least at the moment.

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Donald Duck can lead, at this point.

Schadenfreude on May 27, 2011 at 3:19 PM

Let me guess, Newt is 2nd and Ron Paul is 3rd?

search4truth on May 27, 2011 at 3:20 PM

I change my mind. Bring back Huck, Daniels, Barbour, and Newt.

If the lack of clowns is just going to encourage other clowns to fill in the gap, I prefer the first batch.

HitNRun on May 27, 2011 at 3:20 PM

Sample: 473 Republicans
Margin of error: +/- 4.5%

Meaning Giuliani, Romney, Palin, and Paul are all virtually tied.

steebo77 on May 27, 2011 at 3:21 PM

Communist News Network

idesign on May 27, 2011 at 3:23 PM

I see him as attorney general…

Oil Can on May 27, 2011 at 3:26 PM

Rick Perry needs to announce his candidacy, and Jeb Bush needs to change his last name, or (better yet) run for the Senate.

Steve Z on May 27, 2011 at 3:27 PM

Luv ya,but…

Go away.

Take Mittens, Huntsman, Newt, TPaw, Santorum, and all the other Old White Farts with you.

Leave me Palin, Bachmann and Cain.

Fighters is what we need.

Thunderdome politics: two arguments enter, one argument leaves.

Bruno Strozek on May 27, 2011 at 3:27 PM

When combined with “pleased but not enthusiastic,” Romney leads with 70%, followed by Giuliani at 68%, Paul at 63% (really?), Palin at 56%, and Gingrich in the rear at 50%.

Seriously. WTF is up with the Paulbots?

nickj116 on May 27, 2011 at 3:28 PM

Given the source of the polls…How can I take this seriously when it’s CNN.

hawkman on May 27, 2011 at 3:28 PM

RINO Rudy go away…

Don’t come back another day…

Khun Joe on May 27, 2011 at 3:30 PM

another one for a WGAS “room” here at HotAir……..

And CNN ain’t picking, last time we got the mavrick and look how that turned out…..

RealMc on May 27, 2011 at 3:31 PM

Donald Duck can lead, at this point.

Schadenfreude on May 27, 2011 at 3:19 PM

What about Daffy?

Del Dolemonte on May 27, 2011 at 3:33 PM

All this shows is that another liberal media outlet is trying to pick the Republican candidate.

Like that has never happened before…

percysunshine on May 27, 2011 at 3:36 PM

Here we go again, letting the MSM pick Obama’s Republican opponent.

Johnnyreb on May 27, 2011 at 3:36 PM

Yeah…remember what happen last GOP presidential primaries?

On a different note…I’ll take Rudy over McCain any day.

b1jetmech on May 27, 2011 at 3:40 PM

A lot of New Yorkers and Italians would really like Rudy to get in. We thought the City was dead but he resurrected it. We thought the mob was unbreakable but he broke it. NYC was broke but he cut spending; just what Washington needs. He also doesn’t let the MSM direct his actions. If what he thinks is not politically correct; so what, he says what he thinks anyway. He WILL call a Islamo-Fascist terrorist an Islamo-fascist terrorist and terrorism terrorism rather than a man-caused disaster.

KW64 on May 27, 2011 at 3:40 PM

I am having 2008 Flash Backs, All we need now is to have “Maverick” throw in and we can redo the 2008 elections again… That is what we need

the_ancient on May 27, 2011 at 3:42 PM

When combined with “pleased but not enthusiastic,” Romney leads with 70%, followed by Giuliani at 68%, Paul at 63% (really?), Palin at 56%, and Gingrich in the rear at 50%.

Seriously. WTF is up with the Paulbots?

nickj116 on May 27, 2011 at 3:28 PM

Are you saying 63% of Republicans count as Paulbots?

I myself would be pleased if Ron Paul was nominated. Say what you will about him, he’s the only declared candidate who would force Congress to balance the budget immediately, before a debt or currency crisis.

Inkblots on May 27, 2011 at 3:49 PM

Quote:

“A lot of New Yorkers and Italians would really like Rudy to get in” – per KW64

As a New Yorker, I beg to differ. RINO’s like Bloomberg and Giuliani are not worthy consideration for POTUS. Giuliani’s links to Dubai eliminate his candidacy for me.

The Houston law firm, Bracewell & Giuliani employs several prominent Republicans and former members of the Bush administration and has a roster of oil, gas and banking clients that once included Enron.

NO THANKS. RINO’s go away.

heroyalwhyness on May 27, 2011 at 3:54 PM

Paul at 63% (really?),

RuPaul has Name ID now, important in meaningless polls at this stage.

Also, this is what happens when the MSM and Conservatives basically ignore Paul instead of exposing him.

Imagine where Paul would be if his record, associations, etc….got the Sarah palin treatment in the Media.

jp on May 27, 2011 at 4:01 PM

I myself would be pleased if Ron Paul was nominated. Say what you will about him, he’s the only declared candidate who would force Congress to balance the budget immediately, before a debt or currency crisis.

Inkblots on May 27, 2011 at 3:49 PM

So Paul will declare Dictatorship if President, I imagine he’ll also be turning water to wine.

jp on May 27, 2011 at 4:02 PM

RuPaul has Name ID now, important in meaningless polls at this stage.

jp on May 27, 2011 at 4:01 PM

Funny that you would refer to Ron Paul as “RuPaul,” since Giuliani is the one with the history of transvestism.

steebo77 on May 27, 2011 at 4:06 PM

Anyone but Obama will be OK with me at this point. I wanted Daniels, but that isn’t going to happen. I really do not like Bachmann, too much of a bomb thrower I guess, but I would crawl through broken glass to vote for her if she were the nominee.

bopbottle on May 27, 2011 at 4:07 PM

So Paul is second place in New Hampshire.

Good.

Spathi on May 27, 2011 at 4:14 PM

A lot of New Yorkers and Italians would really like Rudy to get in. We thought the City was dead but he resurrected it. We thought the mob was unbreakable but he broke it. NYC was broke but he cut spending; just what Washington needs. He also doesn’t let the MSM direct his actions. If what he thinks is not politically correct; so what, he says what he thinks anyway. He WILL call a Islamo-Fascist terrorist an Islamo-fascist terrorist and terrorism terrorism rather than a man-caused disaster.

KW64 on May 27, 2011 at 3:40 PM

I agree. He’s not the perfect conservative candidate, but that person doesn’t exist anyway. Rudy isn’t afraid to fight. He knocked heads with NYC liberals for two terms. He’d be a nice contrast to Hugo Chavez Obama.

joejm65 on May 27, 2011 at 4:16 PM

So Paul is second place in New Hampshire.

Good.

Spathi on May 27, 2011 at 4:14 PM

Actually, it is good for him. The folks who win NH generally don’t win the nomination. So, staying in second is the silver lining for what will otherwise be a disasterous 2012 venture for Ron Paul.

joejm65 on May 27, 2011 at 4:18 PM

Tim Pawlenty was “open to” Obamacare like mandate as a “worthy goal” in ’06 speech

Spathi on May 27, 2011 at 4:21 PM

Seriously?!

steebo77 on May 27, 2011 at 4:26 PM

This is just another fraudulent Leftist poll.

Lacking a competent candidate for president, the Democrats are attempting to control the Republican nomination process in order to obtain a defective opponent.

This tactic may backfire, as no opposition candidate mentioned for any party is anywhere near as defective as 0bama has proved himself to be.

Why should anyone pay attention to CNN polls? Have any of them ever been right about anything?

landlines on May 27, 2011 at 4:43 PM

I like Rudy, although not as president, but the FLOTUS’s butt isn’t really that big, is it?

Terrie on May 27, 2011 at 4:56 PM

Tim Pawlenty was “open to” Obamacare like mandate as a “worthy goal” in ’06 speech

Spathi on May 27, 2011 at 4:21 PM

yawn troll

1. He wasn’t opne to Obamacare like mandate he said he’s be in favor of tax breaks for people who bought insurance, this is not the same as forcing people to buy insurance

2. This “revelation” is from a HuffPo piece which has as much credibility as a “revelation” from Rachel Maddow.

3. It was already discussed about a week ago on HA.

angryed on May 27, 2011 at 5:02 PM

So Paul is second place in New Hampshire.

Good.

Spathi on May 27, 2011 at 4:14 PM

And Iraq is the only country in the entire world al Qaeda has never been in.

Good.

PS, RuPaul is down here in NH by 23 points. And that’s a looney CNN “poll”.

But don’t give up hope-your 75 year old cartoon character has gained 3 points in the past 12 months! A year ago he was at 6% here.

Del Dolemonte on May 27, 2011 at 5:07 PM

The CNN poll was taken from the Barnes and Noble fiction section.

Limerick on May 27, 2011 at 5:08 PM

Why Allah and the pundits crunch these poll numbers is beyond me. It is obvious that the MSM and lefties are trying to guide us to a candidate who won’t gobsmack them around in 2012. I mean really, Paul, Trump, Huntsman, Rudy? The farm might be full of cabbage heads but those 2011 cabbages aren’t your run of the mill 1992 cabbages.

Limerick on May 27, 2011 at 5:12 PM

Just because CNN says he’s leading the pack doesn’t make it so.

Browncoatone on May 27, 2011 at 5:23 PM

What you people keep forgetting is that any of these people would be a gigantic improvement over what we have now.

duff65 on May 27, 2011 at 5:39 PM

If the lack of clowns is just going to encourage other clowns to fill in the gap, I prefer the first batch.

HitNRun on May 27, 2011 at 3:20 PM

You consider Rudy Guiliani a clown? Why is that?

SukieTawdry on May 27, 2011 at 6:01 PM

Seems pretty obvious this poll is a psyop. Rudy’s not even thinking about it & Ron Paul has 20%???? They’re trying to influence the outcome.

JimP on May 27, 2011 at 6:07 PM

Republicans and independents

probably meaning Rudy has good name recognition with the squishy center, but probably couldn’t finish 4th in an actual primary

phreshone on May 27, 2011 at 6:14 PM

NAFC.

Not A F-g Chance.

profitsbeard on May 27, 2011 at 6:14 PM

When is the GOP base going to realize that America is fed up with lawyers and career politicians going for the prize of the White House? We want someone that has some brains that knows how much a quart of milk costs and shutters when it costs a hundred dollars to fill a gas tank and knows that the USA is broke and giving away billions of dollars to foreign countries to buy their loyalty is stupid.

mixplix on May 27, 2011 at 6:35 PM

Rudy, please come back in.

AshleyTKing on May 27, 2011 at 7:36 PM

I see him as attorney general…

Oil Can on May 27, 2011 at 3:26 PM

Rudy, please come back in.

AshleyTKing on May 27, 2011 at 7:36 PM

Please stop already. He’s horrible on guns, and it’s high time we saw some of the gun regs relaxed already. He won’t do that.

fossten on May 27, 2011 at 8:09 PM

NO THANKS. RINO’s go away.

heroyalwhyness on May 27, 2011 at 3:54 PM

I have lived in NYS for 26 years. 20 years Precinct Committeeman and eventually Town Chair. I know of no New York State Politician of any party with a greater proven record of success than Rudy Giuliani. I don’t think Rudy is a RINO; but if he is what RINO’s are, we need more RINO’s.

KW64 on May 27, 2011 at 8:47 PM

I like Rudy. And Paul. Any candidate that pisses off either the evangelicals or the neocons, gets a thumbs up. We already had Bush, so we already had an evangelical neocon. Let’s try a non-religious conservative next time.

keep the change on May 27, 2011 at 11:04 PM

Rudy’s been my guy since ’06.
I’ve mentioned to several people here in south Louisiana that he is considering running, including a hard-core 65-y.o. black 0bama voter, and all reacted positively.

The 0bama voter – {pensively] – “Yeah, I think he wouldn’t be bad.”

A large portion of the American electorate, to me, seems to be in a state of high uneasiness with 0bama, given his countless betrayals of American common-sense that even Democrats can see, and I think Rudy would be a safe “port in a storm” who would be more electable than any other candidate I see out there.

He would take America back to 9/11 and feeling united and tough, as when he told the Saudi prince to take his money and shove it.

Although other candidates : Palin, Pawlenty, etc., might be more ideologically pure to the right, my sense is that America is seeking a solid compromise choice to try to stop some of the craziness and get back on track and get rid of 0bama.

So, again, I believe that if Rudy is the GOP nominee, he has a clear, straight shot at being the 45th president.

cane_loader on May 28, 2011 at 12:25 AM

Another one of their polls picking our candidate for us.

Kissmygrits on May 28, 2011 at 1:54 AM

I like Rudy. Every time I see or hear him interviewed, I come away thinking, “Great guy. Just the type we need. Straightforward, no BS, great manager, conservative ideas.” I’m not happy that he’s pro-choice, but I could live with that to get his leadership ability and common sense.

Guiliani/Caine?

Hell of a ticket!

/Mr Lynn

MrLynn on May 28, 2011 at 8:27 PM

blinkered

HalJordan on May 29, 2011 at 11:07 AM