The strange scoop at Daily Caller

steebo77 on May 24, 2011 at 5:35 PM

Most of the candidates at this point “look” better than Palin because they have not had to go through the meat grinder that is the MSM yet. Comparing Palin and Mitt at this point is meaningless. One went through the meat grinder and came up with a deicated base of support and pone has not. Look no further than Newt and his numbers. Before he entered the POTUs his numbers next to Palin’s were pretty good. Now one week into it his numbers are falling off the clift because of him going through the meat grinder. Mitt will face the same as will TPaw and all the others.

so I don’t put much faith in the polls. but they do tend to point out major trends. And one major trend they pointed out wa sPalin falling in the polls from Tuscon until her Madison speech then a rebound of around 7pts since then. We know her bas eof support. The only thing we don’t kown is her ceiling of support. It has never been tested. I would think it would be around 70% after being elected before election I would think it would be 51-52%

A close election. Mitt we do know his ceiling of support. Which is the present numbers. He has gotten nothing but good press up until about a month ago. So he has gone as far as he can. Now with increasing negative press his negative will spike and his numbers will decrease. Mitt and Palin are on two different paths at two different times in their politcal careers. Mitt has peaked and Palin has bottomed.

unseen on May 24, 2011 at 6:05 PM

Oh BTW Palin is ahead in the latest TX poll. Tx has a lot of delegates to the convention…Just saying…

unseen on May 24, 2011 at 6:25 PM

You know i would like to know what the beef Carlson has with Gov Palin. he called a Milf, has attacked her sinc eday one and has allowed hit piece afte rhit piece to infect his website. Does carlson have a woman issue? Or is is a Dc thing?

whatever it is it is getting old. None of these emails say much of anything.

unseen on May 24, 2011 at 6:27 PM

Poll Confirms Palin Top GOP Pick-Leads All In Texas
University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll of 800 registered voters in Texas has Sarah Palin the leader. Palin out polls Romney by 5% and,perhaps surprisingly two Texans Ron Paul 12% to 10% and the media’s latest speculation-Texas Governor Rick Perry who only scores 4%.

This poll was taken just before the cascade out of contention of Palin’s possible rivals Huckabee,Trump and Daniels and before Gingrich apparently self destructed.

If the Gallup poll which reallocated preferences subsequent to these changes has its findings, which put Palin tied with Romney within the margin of error for the lead then her lead in Texas should be substantial.

Once again the media gets it wrong by pointing out Palin’s supposed “unpopularity’ in nationwide polls. What matters for the present is her standing with the only people who will choose the republican candidate-GOP voters.

These voters have Palin’s favorables at 72% and have her tied with Romney for the lead-those are the only facts worth noting as is Pawlenty’s 4% and Huntsman’s 1% support

.

http://recovering-liberal.blogspot.com/

unseen on May 24, 2011 at 6:30 PM

oh BTW Palin needs only 8,100 more friends to hit 3.0million an army of davids…

unseen on May 24, 2011 at 6:32 PM

Palin 48.5%, Obama 48% in Ohio (Palin 51-49% W/ Assumptions)

Public Policy Polling’s magic is back to work again. A new Ohio poll, featuring an important swing state that Obama narrowly won in 2008, is up this week. Like most other PPP polls, Democrats are the overwhelming respondents in this poll. How bad? Lets take a look: The PPP poll had a respondent makeup of 45% Democrat, 35% Republican, 20 Independent, giving the Democrats a +10 Net Advantage over Republicans. In 2010, the Ohio turnout was 36% Republican, 36% Democrat, 28% Independent. So, no difference. The 45% Democrat sample even overdoes Democrat heavy 2008 by 6 points, where still only 39% of the Ohio electorate were Democrats. Its a near impossibility that 45% of the 2010 voting electorate will be Democrats in Ohio if it wasn’t even that close in 2009, as this poll shows.

What does PPP President Dean Debnam say about these results? “These Ohio numbers epitomize Barack Obama’s status right now- he’s not terribly popular but the Republican field is even more unpopular and because of that he’d be in a solid shape for reelection if we had to vote today. If a GOP candidate really captures the attention of the voters Obama will be in trouble but that is far from inevitable.” Ok, sure, if 45% of the electorate is Democrats….

PPP Reports a 10 Point Victory for Obama against Palin if the election were held today. Gosh, I wonder if a 10 point victory has anything to do with a 10 point artificial inflation of Democrats? Doing the work no media analysts will do, we re-run the numbers here and let you decide what is most accurate.

PPP Data: Obama 50%, Palin 40% (Unweighted poll, uses Dem sample 10 point higher than 2010 total and 6 points higher than 2008 total.)

Poll Insider Base Analysis: Obama 46%, Palin 43.5% – Here we see a statistical dead heat. We rework the the PPP numbers showing the makeup of the 2010 electorate of 36% Democrats, 36% Republicans, and 28% Independents. It is safe to assume that the 2012 electorate will be much closer to the 2010 one than to the 2008 one now that Obama has a (fairly unpopular) record in the state. Sarah Palin actually tops Obama slightly in Independents by 1% and even gets 1% more Democrats than Obama gets Republicans.

Poll Insider Analysis Level 2: Palin 48.5%, Obama 48% – This level I consider the best indicator on a statistical level as it includes all GOP and Dems and leaves out undecided Independents. Still a close race, but now Palin moves ahead. The reason Palin still trails in the first poll is that 14% of Republicans are undecided compared to just 5% of Democrats, these are allotted in similar fashion as the rest of the voting bases for each candidate. Challnger party high undecided rate is very common when testing an incumbent vs. a multitude of potential challengers, and the challengers usually trail in the undecided column. Why? In this case Republican voters often have a candidate in their minds to go up against the incumbent. Oftentimes they answer undecided when their candidate is not the one mentioned because at the time they don’t want to imagine that person as the candidate, even though they are likely to vote for them should they become the nominee. The incumbent’s party usually has low undecideds as they know who the candidate will be and there is no other horse in the race.

Poll Insider Analysis Level 3: Palin 51%, Obama 49%. Of the remaining 15% Undecided Independents, we allotted 9% to Palin and 6% to Obama, giving the break 3-2 to the challenger. We arrive at this rate knowing that Undecided Independents usually vote for the incumbents by similar (or greater) margins; Ohio Independents favored Republican Senate candidate Portman by almost 40% points over his Democrat challenger and favored now Governor Kasich by 16% over the Democrat incumbent.

4 scenarios, 3 of which show a reasonably close race, the other is PPP. I analyze, you decide. This is a good sign for Palin as she will have a much better opportunity to change minds in her favor than Obama will. If Palin’s numbers are this strong with the media coverage she has gotten, Ohio might not even be a toss-up a year from now.

Other tidbits from the poll:

Favorability among Conservatives: Palin Favorables among the “very Conservative” is at a solid 76% for a +62% favorable measure. She is +18% among “somewhat conservative” voters and falls off considerably from there with more liberal voters, not surprisingly. Gingrich meanwhile is at a softer (but surprisingly high) +32% among very conservative voters but at -9% among somewhat conservative voters. Romney knocks in +27% in the very important and active “very conservative group” which is 60% lower than Palin’s support. But he rebounds with somewhat conservative voters at +31% and does best in favorables among liberal voters.

Favorability among Republicans: Hey, remember all those media stories about how Palin is falling from GOP stardom? Well, turns out she remain the top Republican of the 3 main challengers. While Gingrich has a pitiful +9 standing among Republicans and Romney is at a pretty decent +30, Palin leads the pack among the Republican field at +36% favorability

http://pollinsider.com/2011/05/24/palin-48-5-obama-48-in-ohio-palin-51-49-w-assumptions/

hmmm so much for the she will lose in a landslide ABP meme . If Palin is polling this well in a swing state she is polling much better in the red states.

then again polls are worthless this far out but it doesn’t help to shoot the insane memes of the ABP people down. sinc ethey use polls to make their case and nothing else. live by the poll die by the poll.

unseen on May 24, 2011 at 6:43 PM

If I recall correctly, when I checked yesterday she only had about 2,987,000 friends and today she’s already at 2,992,000. Is it possible she gained more than 5,000 in a single day?

steebo77 on May 24, 2011 at 6:40 PM

I think in the last 72 hours she has gained about 20,000. He rinterview on Foxnews Wed, Thurs and Sat were very very good.

unseen on May 24, 2011 at 6:45 PM