Open Thread: The NY-26 special election. UPDATE: Corwin Concedes. Over.

posted at 8:30 pm on May 24, 2011 by Jazz Shaw

By this time, many of you die-hard political junkies are probably either pining for the fjords or pining for some Grateful Dead music as the NY-26 special election staggers to a close. “What a long strange trip it’s been.” But the finish line is in sight, and this evening we offer you an open thread to comment while we wait for the polls to close and keep you up to date on the latest happenings in the Brouhaha Near Buffalo. On second thought, given the way this is playing out and its position near the water, no matter who wins, it’s a race that may allow Cleveland to relinquish the moniker of the mistake by the lake.

As I mentioned in this morning’s update, the recent polling took me by surprise when fake “Tea Party candidate” Jack Davis wound up shedding voters who flocked to Democrat Kathy Hochul at a better than five to one clip over Republican Jane Corwin. While I was unable to suss it out, Stacy McCain came up with one possible answer I missed.

But what Jazz points out is, upon reflection, quite logical: Jack Davis ran as a Democrat three times — in 2004, 2006 and 2008 — and it only makes sense that most of his “soft” support would be Democratic voters. Once these voters became aware that Kathy Hochul was the actual Democrat candidate in the 26th District special election, most of them quite naturally switched their preference to her.

Therefore, those voters who actually do vote for Crazy Jack — however small their number — will come almost entirely from the ranks of Republican voters or independents who, in most years, lean toward the GOP.

I’ve spent a little time jawing with McCain during the last few election cycles, and while he’s a cynical old coot, he’s probably on to something there. Either way, we both agree on one point: Tonight’s results are nearly impossible to predict in advance because of the treacherous nature of polling a decidedly low turnout election in a single district which may, in the end, come down to nothing more than the weather today.

Meanwhile, the Gray Lady is taking a bit of joy in Corwin’s admission that she may have let the message horse get out of the barn before she could get a harness on it.

“I probably would have addressed the Medicare message coming out of my opponent quicker,” Ms. Corwin said before a small group of elderly New Yorkers and dozens of local and national journalists in Amherst. “I have to admit, when she started making these comments I thought, ‘This is so outrageous no one would ever believe it.’ Apparently some people did.”

Win or lose tonight, that seems to fit in with the consensus I’ve heard coming out of Empire State political operatives this week. Corwin seemed to be fairly comfortable from the beginning with the idea that she could cruise to victory in a reliably R+6 (or better) district. Her team never took “crazy Jack” Davis seriously enough in the beginning, and focused on running against Hochul. Meanwhile, her Democratic opponent hasn’t paid much attention to Corwin. She’s been running against Paul Ryan for the entire race and pushing the meme that Ryan (and Corwin by proxy) would literally push seniors off a rocky cliff to their deaths.

(By the way, if you haven’t watched that advertisement yet, do so. It’s hilarious.)

We’ll be updating this open thread later in the evening as developments warrant, so stay with us until the hopefully not too terribly bitter end. You can monitor the election results as they come in here, courtesy of Business Insider. Also, if you get bored here, Stacy will also be covering the race live over at The Other McCain.

ALSO: Don’t expect a final answer tonight?

Corwin has obtained a court order barring certification of a winner in anticipation of a close race.

Corwin granted court order barring certification of winner

Jane L. Corwin this afternoon obtained a court order from State Supreme Court Justice Russell P. Buscaglia barring a certification of a winner in the special 26th Congressional District race pending a show-cause hearing before him later this week.

The Buffalo News obtained a copy of the show-cause order Buscaglia signed this morning based on a petition the Republican candidate filed Monday.

Under the judge’s 11-page order, attorneys for Corwin have until Wednesday to serve copies of the court order on the election boards of Erie, Niagara, Genesee, Orleans, Wyoming, Livingston and Monroe counties, their sheriff’s offices, the state Board of Elections and her three opponents.

Pending court proceedings before Buscaglia on Thursday at the earliest, the judge also impounded all voting equipment and enjoined the canvass of paper ballots “except as directed by this court” and “temporarily enjoined and restrained from certifying” the winner pending that court hearing.

Chris Grant, a spokesman for the Corwin campaign, said the court action “is very typical” in such close elections.

Not unusual in NY politics, but definitely a sign that Corwin isn’t expecting a walk in the park here.

UPDATE: From the comments, a live election feed page from the local press.

UPDATE 2: 1% Reporting. Corwin 44, Hochul 43, Davis 12.

UPDATE 2: 10% Reporting. Corwin 41, Hochul 50, Davis 8.

UPDATE 3: 23% Reporting. No change. Corwin 41, Hochul 50, Davis 8, but rural Orleans County, which Corwin needed to carry heavy, has reported in and Hochul took it by a 54-38 margin. Very surprising.

UPDATE 4: With 54% the numbers have tightened a little. Hochul 48, Corwin 43, Davis 8. Sadly, we’re waiting for a lot of numbers from Erie County which is the Dem stronghold.

Update 5: We’re up to 76% and Erie County is starting to come in. Hochul 49%, Corwin 42%, Davis still at 8%. If this slides any more, the Democrat will beat the spread even if you take out the fake Tea Party candidate.

UPDATE 6: At 10 PM eastern, the AP is calling the race for Democrat Kathy Hochul. We’re at 79% at the last count with a 49-42 spread. We still have the injunction if the race is close to count the 8,000 absentee votes, but the margin is nearly 7K votes.

UPDATE 7: At 10:15 it’s still at 49-42. It’s a 5300 vote lead and the revised absentee count is now at 6200 votes. (Early reports were apparently an estimate.) The absentees may break Republican, and there are, for some reason, NO votes reported from Genesee County, which is rural and leans GOP. This may be considered a fool’s errand by some, but the local news staff isn’t buying the AP call as 100% certain yet, so Corwin may not concede this yet.

UPDATE 8: At 10:25 Corwin concedes. Probably the best call. The math was vastly against her.

UPDATE 9: Hochul giving her victory speech. Local news still wondering why Corwin conceded so fast with more than 6K absentees to count and zero votes reported from rural Genesee County.

UPDATE 10: Stick a fork in it. It’s done.

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Comment pages: 1 2

I was listening but not paying attention, but I think Corwin just conceded.

Dusty on May 24, 2011 at 10:27 PM

Tell it to Jane Corwin and Chris Lee.

chumpThreads on May 24, 2011 at 10:22 PM

Actually looking at the numbers it was monroe (Rochester area) that did us in. That should have been a few thousand vote bonus for the R’s. It only netted a couple hundred.

clement on May 24, 2011 at 10:27 PM

Doesn’t much matter. As the junior Congressman from the state, this seat will probably disappear due to reapportionment. This seat will get about 18 months in office and disappear.

crosspatch on May 24, 2011 at 10:27 PM

The solution to these sorts of fiascos is simple — when there’s a plurality, but not majority winner, the top two hold a runoff. Optionally, (to get a quicker result) candidates might be able to ‘donate’ a portion of their votes to another candidate of their choice (half or 2/3rds?). Kind of sort of like how parliamentary elections work — no one’s vote is wasted… In other words, one could eliminate primaries — then after the general election, just define a reasonable process for the politics to work out the true winner…

drfredc on May 24, 2011 at 10:28 PM

ROFL at New York, gluttons for punishment by continually electing people whose only redeeming quality is that they smile as they dig your grave.

Bishop on May 24, 2011 at 10:26 PM

As opposed to electing those who show off their pecs on Craigslist…

chumpThreads on May 24, 2011 at 10:28 PM

OT…Tornadoes as Love Field Airport in Dallas.
SouthernGent on May 24, 2011 at 10:16 PM

Global warming brought about by SUV engines.

Fact: There wasn’t a single recorded tornado in history before the first Chevy Suburban rolled off the assembly line.

Bishop on May 24, 2011 at 10:29 PM

As opposed to electing those who show off their pecs on Craigslist…
chumpThreads on May 24, 2011 at 10:28 PM

Surfing for dudes on craigslist, are you? What a surprise.

Bishop on May 24, 2011 at 10:30 PM

She concedes without all the absentee ballots being counted? Did she run her campaign this way? Did she learn nothing from Prosser. Don’t concede a thing.

SouthernGent on May 24, 2011 at 10:30 PM

ctually looking at the numbers it was monroe (Rochester area) that did us in. That should have been a few thousand vote bonus for the R’s. It only netted a couple hundred.

clement on May 24, 2011 at 10:27 PM

You don’t get it. Not even die-hard Republicans in the senior range want to dismantle Medicare. Corwin drank the Ryan grog and she was done.

OOh! Hochul victory speech on!

chumpThreads on May 24, 2011 at 10:31 PM

She concedes without all the absentee ballots being counted? Did she run her campaign this way? Did she learn nothing from Prosser. Don’t concede a thing.

SouthernGent on May 24, 2011 at 10:30 PM

Dude, it’s over…

chumpThreads on May 24, 2011 at 10:32 PM

Chumpie you cannot be this dense.
Brown et al wont vote for it so it will not pass.
Dems can run against it all they want but by 2012 nobody will remember what the hell they’re talking about. This isnt like obamacare which passed 6 months before Nov 2010. This is a bill that Did not pass 18 months before nov 2012.

angryed on May 24, 2011 at 10:32 PM

You don’t get it. Not even die-hard Republicans in the senior range want to dismantle Medicare. Corwin drank the Ryan grog and she was done.

OOh! Hochul victory speech on!

chumpThreads on May 24, 2011 at 10:31 PM

Actually I do get it. Not taking on medicare will both destroy it and everyone else in the country including you.

clement on May 24, 2011 at 10:33 PM

Chumpie you cannot be this dense.

angryed on May 24, 2011 at 10:32 PM

You’re just feeding the troll, dude.

KingGold on May 24, 2011 at 10:33 PM

Surfing for dudes my mom on craigslist, are you? What a surprise.

Bishop on May 24, 2011 at 10:30 PM

That’s more like it.

chumpThreads on May 24, 2011 at 10:34 PM

The Buffalo area, like rhe rest of upstate New York, has been bleeding population for decades. A trend which will certainly continue. Enjoy your victory, Dems. Party like it’s 1929!

“Another such victory and I am undone.”

~ King Pyrrhus of Epirus, after his victory over the Romans at the battle of Asculum in 279 B.C. ; as quoted by Supreme Court Justice Hugo Black in his dissent in the case of Beauharnais v. Illinois (1952)

RedPepper on May 24, 2011 at 10:34 PM

chumpThreads on May 24, 2011 at 10:34 PM

stupid troll is stupid.

tetriskid on May 24, 2011 at 10:34 PM

[SouthernGent on May 24, 2011 at 10:30 PM]

According to WGRZ, after the concession speech, they still hadn’t seen any Genesee County results. Now maybe they are mistaken but if she conceded before Genesee came in AND before absentee ballots were counted, I’m kind of glad she lost as it’s a better than 50-50 chance we can find a candidate in the next 8 months for 2012.

By that time, we’ll eliminate that fake Tea Party line Davis created.

Dusty on May 24, 2011 at 10:34 PM

angryed on May 24, 2011 at 10:32 PM

The Democrats will get the Republican votes to destroy Medicare on the record, that’s what matters!
Now do you get it?

chumpThreads on May 24, 2011 at 10:35 PM

This loss may be A blessing. Reverse course now from Ryan. Better get the wake up call in May 2011 rather than May 2012.

angryed on May 24, 2011 at 10:36 PM

Victory speech:

“I just want to assure everyone that I will do my best to bury your kids, grandkids, and great grandkids under a mountain of debt so high that they couldn’t dig themselves out with 200 steam shovels at their disposal, and all because I agree that everyone should have everything they want, courtesy of their neighbor. Thank you and good night.”

Bishop on May 24, 2011 at 10:37 PM

Victory speech:

“I just want to assure everyone that I will do my best to bury your kids, grandkids, and great grandkids under a mountain of debt so high that they couldn’t dig themselves out with 200 steam shovels at their disposal, and all because I agree that everyone should have everything they want, courtesy of their neighbor. Thank you and good night.”

Bishop on May 24, 2011 at 10:37 PM

Waaaahhhh!

chumpThreads on May 24, 2011 at 10:39 PM

Now do you get it?

chumpThreads on May 24, 2011 at 10:35 PM

Yeh better to totally destroy this nation financially then to realize the bitter truth. We can’t afford the entitlement system as it is. Why do you want America to fail?

CWforFreedom on May 24, 2011 at 10:39 PM

That’s more like it.
chumpThreads on May 24, 2011 at 10:34 PM

Oh man, that was a total burn, like a 3rd degree burn on me. I was totally burned by you. Burned.

ROFL

Bishop on May 24, 2011 at 10:39 PM

Seriously GOP, release a web ad with a greasy lib in a “MediSCARE” T-shirt where he is holding the end of a rope with a noose around the neck of an old woman in a wheel chair while ordering her elderly husband to “vote for me”.

OR, make sure these idiot candidates are educated on the issues and the Ryan plan so they can defend themselves. Run some ads explaining the problem, the need for reform, how it does not effect anyone over 55, how it helps those under 55 and how the democrats have no solutions other than getting themselves elected.

Daemonocracy on May 24, 2011 at 10:39 PM

Bishop on May 24, 2011 at 10:37 PM

Waaaahhhh!

chumpThreads on May 24, 2011 at 10:39 PM

Bishop hit a nerve I see.

Chump I know idiots like you. You are a leech who does not care what the costs are YOU want your freebies. You make me sick.

CWforFreedom on May 24, 2011 at 10:40 PM

chumpThreads on May 24, 2011 at 10:34 PM

banhammer worthy post

mankai on May 24, 2011 at 10:40 PM

Waaaahhhh!
chumpThreads on May 24, 2011 at 10:39 PM

You did it again! Burned me like a white hot sun. I was totally burned.

Bishop on May 24, 2011 at 10:40 PM

The Democrats will get the Republican votes to destroy Medicare on the record, that’s what matters!
Now do you get it?

chumpThreads on May 24, 2011 at 10:35 PM

Medicare is already broke.

Paul Ryan is trying to save it for everyone.

You are trying to slam it into the ground and starve old people.

But math sure is hard isn’t it?

tetriskid on May 24, 2011 at 10:40 PM

Look, people. If you weren’t in the Buffalo or Rochester media markets, you don’t know how over-the-line it was. Both Hochul and Davis ads said that Corwin would kill Medicare. The newspapers in both cities endorsed Hocul while reporting false information about Corwin. Paul Ryan was demolished, but not by name.

Unless we come up with a counter-message, this is a sneak preview of the 2012 campaign. Obama will use this, and he will use it liberally, even if the economy is in the crapper.

KingGold on May 24, 2011 at 10:41 PM

Yeh better to totally destroy this nation financially then to realize the bitter truth. We can’t afford the entitlement system as it is. Why do you want America to fail?

CWforFreedom on May 24, 2011 at 10:39 PM

I want everybody to contribute their fair share. Roll back the Bush tax cuts, eliminate the subsidies for the oil companies, put the defense budget on the table. That’s a good start.

chumpThreads on May 24, 2011 at 10:42 PM

I didn’t get emotionally invested in the outcome of this race. I refuse to allow idiotic blue state voters to mess with my blood pressure. If they want to bury their state with progressive ways, more power to them.

This election was a good indicator of what talking points are working and what ones are burying a candidate.

A good rebuttal to lies about mediscare HAVE to be developed for 2012.

Rove was on O’Reilly tonite saying that Obama has failed for 3 straight years to deliver an actuarial plan for medicare to congress, which is required by statute. Perhaps that will be a start, how the Dems are allowing Medicare to go broke by ignoring the problem. Who knows.

karenhasfreedom on May 24, 2011 at 10:42 PM

I want everybody to contribute their fair share. Roll back the Bush tax cuts, eliminate the subsidies for the oil companies, put the defense budget on the table. That’s a good start.

chumpThreads on May 24, 2011 at 10:42 PM

Yet you know that would hardly make a dent.Not that you really care.

CWforFreedom on May 24, 2011 at 10:44 PM

Next part of the victory speech:

“I promise to provide you everything you desire, and though it will mean the eventual destruction of the economy and you will end up not getting jack, I believe in providing false hope to a state that thrives on electing fools.”

Bishop on May 24, 2011 at 10:44 PM

I want everybody to contribute their fair share. Roll back the Bush tax cuts, eliminate the subsidies for the oil companies, put the defense budget on the table. That’s a good start.

chumpThreads on May 24, 2011 at 10:42 PM

Everybody’s got to pay their fair share but you, right chump? You want your benefits, and other folks have got to pay for those?

Democrat troll.

KingGold on May 24, 2011 at 10:44 PM

You are trying to slam it into the ground and starve old people.

But math sure is hard isn’t it?

tetriskid on May 24, 2011 at 10:40 PM

Chumpy is not about what is really needed. It is about politics pure and simple. More simple.

CWforFreedom on May 24, 2011 at 10:44 PM

You want your benefits, and other folks have got to pay for those?

KingGold on May 24, 2011 at 10:44 PM

Now doubt. Chumps a leech.

Chump get a job.

CWforFreedom on May 24, 2011 at 10:45 PM

I didn’t get emotionally invested in the outcome of this race. I refuse to allow idiotic blue state voters to mess with my blood pressure. If they want to bury their state with progressive ways, more power to them.

This matters because people in blue states are like worse than stupid.

When they default they will expect responsible people who actually understand math to pay the bill.

tetriskid on May 24, 2011 at 10:45 PM

Yet you know that would hardly make a dent.Not that you really care.
CWforFreedom on May 24, 2011 at 10:44 PM

The defense budget could be gotten rid of and there wouldn’t be a dent.

Of course the geniuses who talk about such things never consider what heavy defense cuts would mean on the battlefield.

Bishop on May 24, 2011 at 10:46 PM

Let someone else pay for it…right chumpy? Sheesh you are pathetic.

CWforFreedom on May 24, 2011 at 10:47 PM

This loss may be A blessing. Reverse course now from Ryan. Better get the wake up call in May 2011 rather than May 2012.

[angryed on May 24, 2011 at 10:36 PM]

Does it matter? One commentator at the WGRZ live coverage observed if two people are in a fight but one doesn’t show up, who wins?

Republicans have run from the fight regarding Ryan’s budget proposal while all the Dems savage it.

If you don’t fight, you can’t win.

Dusty on May 24, 2011 at 10:49 PM

CHumpy ,,,,,can we cut subsidies used towards green energy?

CWforFreedom on May 24, 2011 at 10:50 PM

Jack Davis was in bed with the Ron Paul idiots

check out some of their sites, just today for example:

http://dailypaul.com/163685/vote-jack-davis-for-congress-may-24th-ron-rand-paul-influenced

jp on May 24, 2011 at 10:50 PM

Well, it’s been fun!
I usually don’t permit myself to triumph over a thread full of deflated right-wing yabbos like this, but I was just couldn’t resist.

Brace up you sorry lot. If you think tonight was bad, let’s all get together again on the first Wednesday in November next year, eh? Oh, yes we can!

Sleep tight. Bite the bedbugs!

chumpThreads on May 24, 2011 at 10:50 PM

Roll back the bush cuts lol. Ok that takes care of about 15% of medicare’s deficit.

Oil subsidies? Lol. That’s 5b a year. Medicare goes throgh that in about a day.

You dont get it chumpie. There is no more money for medicare. You could tax every millionaire at 100% and it still would be a drop in the bucket given how much of a deficit medicare ( and ss) has. Do you just not understand basic math?

angryed on May 24, 2011 at 10:51 PM

I want everybody to contribute their fair share. Roll back the Bush tax cuts, eliminate the subsidies for the oil companies, put the defense budget on the table. That’s a good start.

chumpThreads on May 24, 2011 at 10:42 PM

If you really meant that, you’d be advocating for “the poor” to start paying their fair share of taxes. According to the Left, there’s a lot more poor people living paycheck to paycheck than rich people so tax the larger group.

SouthernGent on May 24, 2011 at 10:51 PM

I want everybody to contribute their fair share. Roll back the Bush tax cuts, eliminate the subsidies for the oil companies, put the defense budget on the table. That’s a good start.

chumpThreads on May 24, 2011 at 10:42 PM

Chump…you gotta be kidding right? I think the “Bush tax cuts” will be effectively undone by a new tax code…which means that people making less than 50K will pay higher taxes (Bush effectively removed many of those people from the tax rolls). DoD is already on the table. Subsidies to the oil companies…are you kidding…you mean th 4 B / year

This won’t touch Medicare…okay? Chump, unless you are over 60, you are screwed. Yes, you will pay higher taxes..and get less care…probably rationed. Math is Math, Chump.

r keller on May 24, 2011 at 10:51 PM

I heard on the bottom of the hour news that the Dem won because they were successful in crapping on about how the Republican plan would kill Medicare.

How the eff can this happen when Obamacare (not set to go full-tilt boogie ’til 2014) CLEARLY does this (and aren’t the Dems essentially saying that they are against the FAUX end of Medicare (Repub plan) when in actuality, their Obamacare does what they are accusing the Republican plan of doing?) Does this district even have a CLUE on the issues? Why and how can the “R’s” let a defeat like this happen EVEN with 2 1/2 years of Obama shananigans?

(I know, I know…but this STILL blows my mind! Republicans can be counted on for going down in flames when they have the actual truth on their side).

Gob on May 24, 2011 at 10:54 PM

Chumpy gets spanked and goes to bed. You have been whooped idiot.

Hey Chump you do realize that oil companies for the most part actually get tax cuts not subsidies. Subsidies are what green companies receive.

CWforFreedom on May 24, 2011 at 10:54 PM

New York is collapsing anyway, when they pull QE2 and raise interest rates New York will be a wasteland.

wheelgun on May 24, 2011 at 10:55 PM

chumpThreads on May 24, 2011 at 10:35 PM

Your IQ is as low as Obama’s. Check today’s events, moocher.

Schadenfreude on May 24, 2011 at 11:03 PM

The Democratic plan to let the Bush tax cuts expire for “millionaires and billionaires” doesn’t even come close to addressing the shortfall between revenues and expenditures because there are not that many of them. The Democratic Party leadership which controls the Senate has no budget proposal at all; let alone spending cut proposals specific enough to actually put in a budget. The people oppose middle class tax increases even though that is where the money is and clearly, as this elections results show they oppose entitlement efficiencies that could be gained by actally making consumers absorb enough of the health care cost to make them more frugal shoppers. The Democratic plan to have a 15 member board ration healthcare to cover the difference between Medicare revenues and expenditures still would not solve the enormous gap between expenditures and revenues in the overall budget.

Right now we hear left -leaning policy commenters advocating the current policy of just buying our own treasury bonds with in effect newly printed money indefinitely with the intention to inflate away the debt. If this just printing money to inflate away the debt really worked the people in Zimbabwae would be rich because they lead the world in inflation. In reality, it wipes out people’s savings and thus lowers purchasing power and the capital needed to invest in new businesses. I guess when the crisis reduces our currency to nothing and everyone’s savings are wiped out like in Zimbabwe we can get a proposal from Harry Reid to actually address excessive spending and debt that is going to ruin our children’s future, but I doubt if anything short of that will do as his latest proposal on entitlements was to “wake him up in a few decades.”
.

KW64 on May 24, 2011 at 11:11 PM

Well, it’s been fun!
I usually don’t permit myself to triumph over a thread full of deflated right-wing yabbos like this, but I was just couldn’t resist.

Brace up you sorry lot. If you think tonight was bad, let’s all get together again on the first Wednesday in November next year, eh? Oh, yes we can!

Sleep tight. Bite the bedbugs!

chumpThreads on May 24, 2011 at 10:50 PM

And you were so brave to come here right at the end. Wow, what a classless, gutless coward you are. This win means nothing. The media ignored even the epic meaning of the 2010 elections, but descend all over this one single special election. They were calling it eariler today and giving some inner meaning because they have to. You have to because inventing public opinion and momentum is all you have. Come fall of 2012. All of you whose are trying to ruin this country by stealing to give, will find yourselves out on your azzez.

And how brave is that prediction, my spineless troll chum…p.

hawkdriver on May 24, 2011 at 11:22 PM

“who” are trying…

hawkdriver on May 24, 2011 at 11:23 PM

Stupid party is stupid. Two years ago no Tea Party person ever advocated that Medicare should be converted to vouchers. Why? Because the economy is tanking and Obamacare is going to destroy this country. Those were the clear priories that got the coalition together.

Fast forward to now, for some g*d d@mn reason and as puzzling as the attention paid to Huntsman’s candidacy, Medicare vouchers became the rallying cry for the movement.

I just never understood this willful suicidal side-tracking away from the economy and Obamacare.

THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO D@MN REASON TO ‘SAVE’ MEDICARE. Let it die. It’s gonna happen on its own. There is nothing that’s going to be done about it when the Republicans control only the House. Why do people on our side keep making the same. stupid. mistake. UGH!

Apologetic California on May 24, 2011 at 11:24 PM

Chumpie you cannot be this dense.

angryed on May 24, 2011 at 10:32 PM

Ample evidence to the contrary, of course.

Midas on May 24, 2011 at 11:39 PM

I watched a small part of the debate between these two people. The Dim said “Ryan Plan” at least once each answer. the Ryan Plan would gut Pell Grants, do this and that..alter the way American’s live…we will be a poorer, stupid, short lived people once the Rs take over. Sheer demagogy.

But, as others have noted…NY may generally be turning a bluer shade of blue because those that can leave, leave. Owens is still in ny-23 after his special election victory. So, yeah, I think the R party is still pretty stupid…but maybe ny is going deeper blue…

So maybe this is a fitting analysis for ny-25

From InstaPundit:

WHY NEW YORK’S FUTURE IS FLEEING: Not enough jobs for the younger generation. Have you noticed that wherever what Walter Russell Mead calls the “blue state model” is applied, you get a crust of really rich people, jobs for some folks who service them, and then not much employment or opportunity for younger people?

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/opinion/opedcolumnists/why_ny_future_is_fleeing_v4535f5BZTMQJSc4maz1qL

r keller on May 24, 2011 at 11:47 PM

…But the voters are suggesting otherwise. “I have almost always voted the party line,” Republican Hochul voter Gloria Bolender told the New York Times. “This is the second time in my life I’ve voted against my party.” Added Republican Pat Gillick, who also voted for the Democrat: “The privatization of Medicare scares me.”

rjl1999 on May 25, 2011 at 12:11 AM

Where’s my melting bunny?

G. Charles on May 25, 2011 at 12:13 AM

Forget it, Jake. It’s Chinatown.

novaculus on May 25, 2011 at 12:36 AM

Republican Pat Gillick, who also voted for the Democrat: “The privatization of Medicare scares me.”

rjl1999 on May 25, 2011 at 12:11 AM

Pat doesn’t understand what “living within your means” means. Pat also doesn’t understand what “Ponzi schemes” are. Pat doesn’t have a clue what hyperinflation is, or what it looks like in the real world.

Pat is obviously more afraid of taking care of her own medical expenses than she is of the government severely rationing her healthcare, or than she is of national bankruptcy. Pat doesn’t believe in herself. Pat is not very smart. Pat is also a socialist’s dream come true. Pat, people like chumpThreads are glad you are so easily manipulated.

Bizarro No. 1 on May 25, 2011 at 12:39 AM

A bit late, but nevertheless…

Count it!

crr6 on May 25, 2011 at 12:59 AM

A bit late, but nevertheless…

Count it!

crr6 on May 25, 2011 at 12:59 AM

Hey, How did that Prosser recount go? I bet you’ll never regret declaring Kloppenberg the winner……

sandee on May 25, 2011 at 1:20 AM

The whole effort by Ryan and the GOP leadership was a unenforced error. While many have praised Ryan, I found the whole effort rather amateurish and the initial push by everyone on the right intelligentsia(The Corner especially) rather phony and artificial.

You have to keep things simple. Republicans can not win with austerity. You can’t win with talking individual cuts. The Republicans should have agreed to capping the total growth of spending at 3% with a target of 20% of GDP spending by the federal government. They should have put out multiple plans within that framework. Individual cuts should always be talked about as being prioritizing for other spending and the 3%/20% framework should be constantly brought up. Constantly.

The American people want cruise control out of their government. They do not want a crash nor do they want acceleration. Americans want things prioritize, they do not want to stuff or starve the beast.

ninjapirate on May 25, 2011 at 2:07 AM

Republican Pat Gillick, who also voted for the Democrat: “The privatization of Medicare scares me.”
rjl1999 on May 25, 2011 at 12:11 AM

Pat doesn’t understand what “living within your means” means. Pat also doesn’t understand what “Ponzi schemes” are. Pat doesn’t have a clue what hyperinflation is, or what it looks like in the real world.
Pat is obviously more afraid of taking care of her own medical expenses than she is of the government severely rationing her healthcare, or than she is of national bankruptcy. Pat doesn’t believe in herself. Pat is not very smart. Pat is also a socialist’s dream come true. Pat, people like chumpThreads are glad you are so easily manipulated.
Bizarro No. 1 on May 25, 2011 at 12:39 AM

“Pat” is going to cost the R’s the election.

rjl1999 on May 25, 2011 at 3:30 AM

The vote was 47-42-9 for Davis. In other words the Dem could have been beaten in a race where resources weren’t wasted on a Democrat/Tea candidate If this is the great Dem revival, color me underwhelmed. As for selective quotes, whatever, there is an msm meme to build.

rob verdi on May 25, 2011 at 6:12 AM

Ryan’s
Plan
Is
Going
To
Kill
Us!

We had them on the ropes going into ’12 with the economy, gas, jobs, Obamacare… Screw it. Let the economy crash. It’s on their watch.

Dumb move.

kevinkristy on May 25, 2011 at 7:12 AM

mika with her bloody smirk this am….

mediscare wins once again…

cripe

cmsinaz on May 25, 2011 at 7:16 AM

Perfect way for republicans to win.Run a tea party candidate as 3rd person, make them sound so democratic that no conservative will vote for them ,but steal enough votes from the dem to win.

BruceB on May 25, 2011 at 7:25 AM

Kind of confused – Paul Ryan is merely instituting the reccomendations of Obama’s bipartisan debt panel. Remember that thing?

So this is actually Obama’s panel’s plan to fix Medicare and stave off fiscal insolvency.

Figures – the Democrats ask for a panel to give them their plan, a Republican says, “OK, let’s get to it,” and the Democrats run screaming.

Good Lt on May 25, 2011 at 7:49 AM

We had them on the ropes going into ’12 with the economy, gas, jobs, Obamacare… Screw it. Let the economy crash. It’s on their watch.

Dumb move.

kevinkristy on May 25, 2011 at 7:12 AM

OH NOES!

We’re DOOOOOOMED!@!!

Man up, buttercup. It’s a house race in NY.

Good Lt on May 25, 2011 at 7:51 AM

If the Republicans are going to be this stupid for 2012, they can plan on losing the House and not getting the Senate. First of all, medicare is not the problem, mediscare is the problem. If you allow the Democrats to get away with saying the most outrageous things and not countering them, they win.

The Democrats will do and say anything. They’ll put out a 3rd party candidate, in states where they can get away with it. They’ll lie, cheat, and deceive their way into office because the ends justifies the means.

Just another reason we need Sarah Palin running against these people, Mitt won’t do what’s necessary to defeat them.

bflat879 on May 25, 2011 at 8:14 AM

Good Lt on May 25, 2011 at 7:51 AM

Bingo. Dems won a single house seat with less than a majority. I’m sure there’s some consternation among the squeamish about entitlement reform but the end results pretty clearly bear out some influence with the extra candidate as well.

Don’t forget the incompetence of the NY GOP, either. They’re a joke right now.

Red Cloud on May 25, 2011 at 8:28 AM

Sounds as if some people were running scared of the proposed changes to MC. Maybe they should consider that if they stay strapped in their seat belts, they will go over the cliff or something. The dems probably figure on using this MC scare tactic in every upcoming election along with a fake Tea Party candidate to siphon off votes. Never mind that this will keep the govt in our business that much longer. If I was younger and had a chance to find my own insurance without depending on the feds to take care of me, I’d jump on it.

Kissmygrits on May 25, 2011 at 8:37 AM

Whenever the owner dies, I hope they move the Bills to Los Angeles.

IR-MN on May 25, 2011 at 9:15 AM

The thing the media are ignoring, but which several comments have correct is this race was decided by ‘seniors’.

They vote. They like their entitlements. They could honestly care less about bankrupting their grand children.

Seniors are the ones who tossed out the Dems due to Obamacare. They will be the ones who toss out the GOP due to the appearance of cuts, even if that is false.

Honestly, the way seniors treat our country makes me yearn for carousel from Logan’s Run when they hit 65….

crscott on May 25, 2011 at 9:40 AM

Republican Pat Gillick, who also voted for the Democrat: “The privatization of Medicare scares me.”

rjl1999 on May 25, 2011 at 12:11 AM

Not “Conservative” Pat Gillick… and I might add… not “economically astute” Pat Gillick.

“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, followed always by a dictatorship. The average age of the world’s greatest civilizations has been 200 years.” – attributed to Alexander Fraser Tytler, (October 15, 1747 – January 5, 1813) a Scottish-born British lawyer and writer.

Yes, I know the authorship is disputed.

mankai on May 25, 2011 at 9:45 AM

They vote. They like their entitlements.
crscott on May 25, 2011 at 9:40 AM

They pi$$ & moan about the direction America is taking, yet they refuse to seriously discuss the steps needed to change course.
They believe these programs are their due. They paid into it so they should get their money’s worth!
And when you explain to any of them that they’re drawing more than they paid in, it doesn’t bother them a bit. Bcs it’s their retirement!
We have to do something about this eventually.
Seniors who have pensions & other retirement should not be receiving Medicare/SS benefits.
It’s a TAX. Always has been.
Slowly wean people off. Like Ryan’s plan attempts to address.
I’m not for throwing grandma to the wolves, either.
My grandma depends upon SS & so does my diasabled mother in the nursing home (multiple sclerosis).
But we gotta do something.
Not nothing.
It seems American s are destined to learn the hard way.

Badger40 on May 25, 2011 at 9:51 AM

chumpThreads on May 24, 2011 at 10:31 PM

Completely vapid. Dems do nothing, yet scorn a plan to save things. Without reform, there won’t be diddly for anyone. This is what you like, and want?

As I said…completely vapid.

capejasmine on May 25, 2011 at 10:00 AM

It’s unfortunate that Paul Ryan’s video about Medicare didn’t run in the two major markets of that district. Supposedly, it has a high proportion of educated population, as measured by college degrees. The common sense of that video would have countered the scare tactics and misinformation that the Dems used.

onlineanalyst on May 25, 2011 at 10:01 AM

Another off year defeat.More proof that while the GOP is very good at running against Dem policies, as they showed in 2010, when it comes to running on their own policies they are impotent salesmen who couldn’t make money selling lemonade at a rest stop on I 40 in the Mojave Desert outside Needles.

xkaydet65 on May 25, 2011 at 10:08 AM

I was wondering if you could time-stamp your updates, it would help a lot.

disa on May 25, 2011 at 11:21 AM

Another off year defeat.More proof that while the GOP is very good at running against Dem policies, as they showed in 2010, when it comes to running on their own policies they are impotent salesmen who couldn’t make money selling lemonade at a rest stop on I 40 in the Mojave Desert outside Needles.

xkaydet65 on May 25, 2011 at 10:08 AM

Really? What about Wisconsin? The Republican won there just a few weeks ago. It seems a little ridiculous to turn one election into a year of defeat is a little over the top, especially considering the fact that the Democrat only won this time because there was a third party candidate.

Terrye on May 25, 2011 at 1:04 PM

What we are learning is the old GOP war cry concerning gun control “From my cold dead hands” is now you can take my Medicare “From my cold sick hands”. People like medicare. Just find another way to save it, not change it. People are smart enough to realize change vs save.

Monkei on May 25, 2011 at 5:03 PM

of defeat is a little over the top, especially considering the fact that the Democrat only won this time because there was a third party candidate.

Terrye on May 25, 2011 at 1:04 PM

That might be a good reason if it were true, the fact is the tea party candidate broke about 55-45 GOP vs Dem … if you assume that the GOP and Dem voters would have stuck with their party if the tea party candidate was not in the race, then your theory would be wrong.

Monkei on May 25, 2011 at 5:08 PM

Winning is simply not a priority for the GOP. Maintaining the status quo is what’s important. As for the Ryan Plan? This is what the GOP has bet all of its chips on. A big “yawn’er” from the voters. The GOP is way off target / off course. B/c they keep listening to people like Limbaugh and Hannity. DD

Darvin Dowdy on May 25, 2011 at 5:44 PM

What we are learning is the old GOP war cry concerning gun control “From my cold dead hands” is now you can take my Medicare “From my cold sick hands”. People like medicare. Just find another way to save it, not change it. People are smart enough to realize change vs save.

Monkei on May 25, 2011 at 5:03 PM

This was how you save it. If it doesn’t change it will simply die, and no one will get any of it. Of course, if it goes far enough, it will take the entire country with it. This is a very simple question: how much of our output are we willing to devote to keeping the dying alive for a few more hours/days/years? The open ended commitment inherent in the current structure of medicare implies “all of it”, and that is driving up the cost of maintaining health for everyone else.

Count to 10 on May 25, 2011 at 7:48 PM

This election was split by a fake tea party vote and a not clever lame GOP candidate.

This loss may be A blessing. Reverse course now from Ryan. Better get the wake up call in May 2011 rather than May 2012.

angryed on May 24, 2011 at 10:36 PM

Don’t have to run from Ryan at all, but do have to run from the Corwin campaign:

“I probably would have addressed the Medicare message coming out of my opponent quicker,” Ms. Corwin said before a small group of elderly New Yorkers and dozens of local and national journalists in Amherst. “I have to admit, when she started making these comments I thought, ‘This is so outrageous no one would ever believe it.’ Apparently some people did – Corwin

Corwin gains nothing by running against an opponent’s accusations, and she still does not understand that fact.

Corwin would have gained if Corwin had made saving Medicare as important as saving her grandmother’s life, but she did not

Instead she grabbed the football and ran to the opponent’s goal post.

GOPs have latched onto the argument that cutting all the pork in the USA would not gain enough money to make a dent in Medicare insolvency, so therefore one must concentrate on cutting Medicare intstead of pork.

The priority is pork first, Medicare second.

The is the price that must be paid to get permission from the American public to reform Medicare.

Ryan has a good plan, but his plan is Plan B

The way to promote Ryan’s plan is to aggressively denounce earmarks and pork, demand they be eliminated to save SSA and Medicare, and to blast the message that the Left is using the protection of Medicare to keep the conversation away from their overspending, the very overspending which caused Medicare to go belly up.

Further, there should have been a vigorous continual attack on Obamacare for cutting 500 billion in Medicare and for changing Medicare coverage to get money for new parts of obamacare. This should have been showcased as robbing Medicare to give money to people not yet qualified

The bill was written in secret. You had to vote for it to read it. But buried in the bill was the theft of Medicare, our sacred promise.

The GOP has a credibility problem because the GOP also would not let go of earmarks, despite the fact Medicare is going belly up.

This is why new, non establishment candidates are so important. Establishment candidates had better have fast epiphanies about the eramark mistake, and let the public know that Ryan has convinced them of their erros.

The offensive position must be to keep the conversation on fighting pork. However, unless the conservative can enthusiastically take up the battle on overspending, they will not be able to turn this Medicare smokescreen around

entagor on May 26, 2011 at 3:05 AM

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