Gallup: Republican candidate with highest “positive intensity” score is Herman Cain

posted at 9:48 pm on May 24, 2011 by Allahpundit

I was tempted to lead with the news about Trump reportedly considering an independent bid, but — enough. Enough.

This is actually a pretty good poll for Palin, I think:

She’s got the highest name recognition in the field and the highest positive intensity score save for Cain and Bachmann, both of whom are far lesser known and who haven’t really been attacked yet. Then again, her positive intensity is only a few points higher than Tim Pawlenty’s, who’s far, far more obscure than she is yet building grassroots goodwill by the day. The takeaway: She could still make a splash, but Cain’s and Bachmann’s P.I. scores are so much higher that they’d be genuine threats to pull the upset in Iowa if she got in late and they continued to raise their profiles. Then again, I’ve read several pieces over the last few months about how Iowans are worried they’re becoming a boutique social-con stronghold where major players like Romney might not even deign to compete in the future. In order to maintain their influence, they have to keep producing winners who are capable of going all the way and winning the nomination. Cain and Bachmann probably aren’t capable, but Palin is — which makes me wonder if there wouldn’t be a late break away from C & B and towards her if she jumped in late, just on viability grounds.

Speaking of getting in late, a trenchant point from Chris Cillizza:

The FDU poll released Tuesday morning painted a tough picture for Christie. Forty-four percent of those tested approved of the job he was doing while 44 percent disapproved. (Just a month ago, Christie had a 51 percent job approval rating in the FDU poll.) Christie’s unfavorable rating stood at 45 percent in the new FDU poll and a majority (55 percent) of voters said the state is headed off on the wrong track…

Whether or not you put much stock in polling, the history of Republicans winning statewide race in New Jersey isn’t terribly encouraging for Christie’s chances…

Democrats are well aware of the state’s voting patterns and are already beginning to circle the governor’s race. Booker, the African American mayor of Newark, is seen as rising star nationally and is expected to make the leap to a statewide race either against Christie in 2013 or for a Senate seat if Frank Lautenberg (D) retires in 2014.

Losing the next gubernatorial race wouldn’t necessarily be fatal to his chances in 2016. Nixon famously lost his bid for California governor in 1962 — but then Nixon had already been vice president for eight years at that point. If Christie loses in 2013, he’s out of office with just four years’ experience and destined to face heavyweights in 2016 like Rubio, Ryan, and Jeb Bush. (Palin is in a similar position.) If his polls look even dimmer next month, is it now or never?


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Now thats what I call entertianment(Lots of Sarc).

canopfor on May 24, 2011 at 9:54 PM

Positive intensity score’s in all likelihood have more to do with ignorance than reality. All candidates are human with failings and if you don’t know who a candidate is its easy to enthusiastically support what you think they are. When you discover what they really are some of that enthusiasm vanishes. This is why the newest kid on the block makes such a splash until we find out what he/she actually believes.

sharrukin on May 24, 2011 at 9:54 PM

The takeaway: She could still make a splash, but Cain’s and Bachmann’s P.I. scores are so much higher that they’d be genuine threats to pull the upset in Iowa if she got in late and they continued to raise their profiles.

Palin needs to get in by June at the latest. A late summer/early fall entry will allow someone to steal her thunder. Right now I think Cain has a better shot at being that person than Bachmann, but either one appeals to the same folks.

As for Christie, I was wondering earlier today if his sinking poll numbers might actually make him more inclined to run for President now. Granted it’s a long way til the next gubernatorial election in New Jersey, but if he starts to fear that he’s gonna be a one-termer, why wait til 2016 or 2020 if he has higher aspirations?

Doughboy on May 24, 2011 at 9:54 PM

Bachmann has no chance, all the donks have to do is show the footage of her saying that the “Shot Heard ‘Round the World” was fired in Lexington KENTUCKY and it’s all over.

Tony737 on May 24, 2011 at 9:54 PM

A year and a half of automated campaign phone calls…

… Oh, Joy!

/

Seven Percent Solution on May 24, 2011 at 9:55 PM

Palin/Cain/West/Bachmann/2012!!

canopfor on May 24, 2011 at 9:56 PM

Yes, there’s so much “positive intensity” that with all the recent and current talk of “is this all there is?” you have to remind yourself he’s already in.

Marcus on May 24, 2011 at 9:56 PM

You think the Johnson people aren`t as intense about him because they`re all stoned, watching Fantasia?

“Dude?….. Wha?….. What election?”

ThePrez on May 24, 2011 at 9:57 PM

Cain and Bachmann probably aren’t capable [of winning the nomination], but Palin is — which makes me wonder if there wouldn’t be a late break away from C & B and towards her if she jumped in late, just on viability grounds.

Does a film about Palin premiering in Iowa in June count as jumping in late?

Harpazo on May 24, 2011 at 9:58 PM

I was reading today there is a new guy on the block who is going to make Herman Cain look like a snooze. New guy is apparently hilarious on some show called “Red Eye” and has a rock-n-roll band. He could have maybe rid the country of a beast called “Senator Stabenow” from his homestate but I understand this guy said “Uhm, no” is ready for the top spot.

Marcus on May 24, 2011 at 10:03 PM

Christie has been a disappointment on illegal immigration, on environmental issues, on the Ground Zero mosque, on his support of Mike Castle in Delaware.

I really would rather he stay in New Jersey and slay the union dragon there while he still has some goodwill left among conservatives.

He’d surely drain the rest of that goodwill quickly if he were to announce for president.

Edouard on May 24, 2011 at 10:03 PM

Since we were all getting along so well on the Oblahblah/Queen thread, I think we should get back at each others throats and Allah obviously agrees.

darwin-t on May 24, 2011 at 10:05 PM

There is plenty of time and anything can happen.

lexhamfox on May 24, 2011 at 10:06 PM

More is needed.

Key West Reader on May 24, 2011 at 10:09 PM

What Palin needs is a feature length film…

d1carter on May 24, 2011 at 10:10 PM

Palin’s not running? Think again.

Shortly after Republicans swept last November to a historic victory in which Sarah Palin was credited with playing a central role, the former Alaska governor pulled aside her close aide, Rebecca Mansour, to discuss a hush-hush assignment: Reach out to conservative filmmaker Stephen K. Bannon with a request. Ask him if he would make a series of videos extolling Palin’s governorship and laying to rest lingering questions about her controversial decision to resign from office with a year-and-a-half left in her first term. It was this abdication, Palin knew, that had made her damaged goods in the eyes of some Republicans who once were eager to get behind her potential 2012 presidential campaign.

The response was more positive than Palin could have hoped for. He’d make a feature-length movie, Bannon told Mansour, and he insisted upon taking complete control and financing it himself — to the tune of $1 million.

The fruits of that initial conversation are now complete. The result is a two-hour-long, sweeping epic, a rough cut of which Bannon screened privately for Sarah and Todd Palin last Wednesday in Arizona, where Alaska’s most famous couple has been rumored to have purchased a new home. When it premieres in Iowa next month, the film is poised to serve as a galvanizing prelude to Palin’s prospective presidential campaign — an unconventional reintroduction to the nation that she and her political team have spent months eagerly anticipating, even as Beltway Republicans have largely concluded that she won’t run.

Lots more at the link.

NoNails on May 24, 2011 at 10:11 PM

AP, why do you think none of the major polling firms are doing any national GOP nomination polling since Huckabee, Trump and Daniels bowed out of the race?

I have yet to see a poll result that was taken since these three dropped out. Why not?

I have seen a few polls that predict what might happen from past polls, but nothing from new polling.

Positive intensity score? WTF?

Let’s see the new look GOP field stacks up without these three names. I don’t understand why no one is either polling or releasing their results.

chief on May 24, 2011 at 10:12 PM

No. Not enough political experience, not enough foreign policy. You can’t just sack other branches of government if they don’t agree with you, like you can if you’re a CEO. Cain’s lifestory is impressive, but not enough to make me think he can hack it as a politician. SORRY.

Fortunata on May 24, 2011 at 10:15 PM

NoNails on May 24, 2011 at 10:11 PM

Oh noes. Let AP continue in the fantasy land that she’s not running for a little more. Why do you shatter his peace?

promachus on May 24, 2011 at 10:21 PM

chief on May 24, 2011 at 10:12 PM

The answer is obvious. Palin’s the frontrunner and is running away with the nomination.

promachus on May 24, 2011 at 10:22 PM

Cain’s lifestory is impressive, but not enough to make me think he can hack it as a politician. SORRY.

Fortunata on May 24, 2011 at 10:15 PM

I’m ready to try someone other than a professional politician like Plain and the rest.

csdeven on May 24, 2011 at 10:25 PM

Christie could always follow in the Jimmy Carter/ Mitt Romney mold and serve a single term as Governor.

Mister Mets on May 24, 2011 at 10:30 PM

Oh noes. Let AP continue in the fantasy land that she’s not running for a little more. Why do you shatter his peace?

promachus on May 24, 2011 at 10:21 PM

Honest question: I have been a daily reader and regular commenter on HA for 3 years and I haven’t really seen any anti-Palin bias on AP’s part. He seems to make a pretty big effort to be fair. What am I missing?

(As an aside, I read and enjoy your comments all the time. this is a completely snark free question)

Kataklysmic on May 24, 2011 at 10:32 PM

NoNails on May 24, 2011 at 10:11 PM

Damn! Eat your heart out, John Ziegler. Hopefully this one gets a Blu-ray release. Neither Media Malpractice nor Sarah Palin’s Alaska did.

Doughboy on May 24, 2011 at 10:37 PM

I was reading today there is a new guy on the block who is going to make Herman Cain look like a snooze. New guy is apparently hilarious on some show called “Red Eye” and has a rock-n-roll band. He could have maybe rid the country of a beast called “Senator Stabenow” from his homestate but I understand this guy said “Uhm, no” is ready for the top spot.

YES!!!! At the very least would raise the level of the knowledge of domestic and foreign policy, rhetorical skill, intellectual acumen, and wit, of the debates.

YehuditTX on May 25, 2011 at 12:20 AM

If Christie loses in 2013, he’s out of office with just four years’ experience and destined to face heavyweights in 2016 like Rubio, Ryan, and Jeb Bush. (Palin is in a similar position.) If his polls look even dimmer next month, is it now or never?

Why do you assume they would all try to primary President Perry?

TallDave on May 25, 2011 at 1:04 AM

BTTT

chief on May 25, 2011 at 2:01 AM

Why do you assume they would all try to primary President Perry?

TallDave on May 25, 2011 at 1:04 AM

Good point!

rcl on May 25, 2011 at 2:07 AM

Palin and Cain both should take a page out of Reagan’s playbook and concentrate not on criticizing their opponents directly but on emphasizing the things that bind us together as Americans. Palin has been pretty close over the years when she talks about getting the government out of the way and unleashing American ingenuity and entrepreneurial spirit.

If you haven’t seen it in a while, have a look at Ronald Reagan’s 1981 inaugural address. It is available on YouTube. They should play it at the 2012 Republican Convention. Everyone should watch it every couple of years.

I would suggest Palin find a tutor in economics. Maybe Professor Walter E. Williams would take the job. It would probably serve her well.

crosspatch on May 25, 2011 at 3:06 AM

Oh, and the one thing that comes through very clearly in Reagan’s address is who his heroes were. His heroes were the average everyday Americans and for that, he earned our respect and our love in return.

crosspatch on May 25, 2011 at 3:08 AM

I would suggest Palin find a tutor in economics. Maybe Professor Walter E. Williams would take the job. It would probably serve her well.

crosspatch on May 25, 2011 at 3:06 AM

Why does Palin need an economics tutor? She was spot on with QE2, has shown she understands the origins of the mortgage and subsequent financial crises, is conversant in tax policy, and can speak at length about details of the federal budget. Not to mention her particular expertise in the energy arena and her supply side instincts.

steebo77 on May 25, 2011 at 4:05 AM

I would suggest Palin find a tutor in economics. Maybe Professor Walter E. Williams would take the job. It would probably serve her well.

crosspatch on May 25, 2011 at 3:06 AM

Sarah’s already consulting an economist:
Economist won’t refudiate Palin endorsement

Jenfidel on May 25, 2011 at 4:10 AM

This is actually a pretty good poll for Palin, I think:

AP – The joy of digitized writing is that no one saw that grimace of pain as you wrote that comment.

I sorta like Rand Paul’s take on these polls. (I apply it to Palin) Polls follow when leaders lead. Her enemies (left and the more frightened right)are legion -and they’ve shot a lot of blank ammo so far -narry a scratch.

Don L on May 25, 2011 at 6:34 AM

I listened to Beck interview Herman Cain yesterday. Beck is a Cain fan and while asking good questions, he wasn’t playing “gotcha”. I do not think Cain is a joke and I do take him seriously. But his answers to questions on the Fed, TARP and RoR were just horrible. His first instinct in these things is often wrong. But he goes with that wrong instinct until it can’t play anymore and then he changes to a better course.

After yesterday I could not vote for Herman Cain in a primary.

myrenovations on May 25, 2011 at 6:35 AM

Sarah’s already consulting an economist:
Economist won’t refudiate Palin endorsement

Jenfidel on May 25, 2011 at 4:10 AM

He stated that he was so angry with the Republicans over the bailout that he supported Obama. I’d like to ask him how that worked out for him.

SKYFOX on May 25, 2011 at 6:58 AM

Cain leads in intensity of support? Not if this comment thread is any indication. 35 comments after what, 10 hours?

I’m not sure what to make of Cain. Just seems like a run of the mill Republican to me. Not slash your wrists bad like Mitt or Newt, but nothin special.

james23 on May 25, 2011 at 7:36 AM

I’ve never seen a graph like that before, interesting method. descriptive. thanks ap

ted c on May 25, 2011 at 8:06 AM

What I’ve heard of and from Cain, I kinda like him, but I know and have heard precious little. Far too little to base any decision on. For me, a presidential candidate should have at least a modicum of political experience so that they aren’t diving into unknown waters. Good business sense is only part of the equation. I need to have a sense of how they will stand against the forces opposing them. Any Republican will have virtually all of the media, academia and all other branches of progressives against them. Can they take a punch and give as well as they get while keeping their eye on the objective?

SKYFOX on May 25, 2011 at 8:15 AM

Reagan was someone i doubt we’ll see any modern day politician duplicate. He had learned negotiating from his days heading the SAG. He had great communicating skills from his days as a radio broadcaster.. and he had learned to be a great presence on TV from his days as an actor. He wasn’t comparable to any of the modern day politicians we get offered today. I hate when people try to compare them to him. He was the perfect type of person to be president. He had all the necessary skills.

That said, Right now when i look at the political field and judge them strictly on record and accomplishments, Cain stands out. Hes actually run businesses and has been successful multiple times. These were real wealth generating businesses – not the money juggling, lawsuit creating, speculative-type enterprises that Trump runs.

For those who are against his stance on TARP – i feel that if Milton Friedman had been alive he would have also supported TARP. The problem was ultimately government intrusion into the housing industry, but that does not change the necessity of having a money bomb to keep the market afloat.

tflst5 on May 25, 2011 at 8:59 AM

Christie would be a political cartoonist’s dream candidate…

Akzed on May 25, 2011 at 9:17 AM

glad you didn’t take the Trump bait. He has been out of the media cycle for two weeks and was going into withdrawal.

pgrossjr on May 25, 2011 at 10:19 AM

Palin and Cain both should take a page out of Reagan’s playbook and concentrate not on criticizing their opponents directly but on emphasizing the things that bind us together as Americans.

crosspatch on May 25, 2011 at 3:06 AM

Agreed – we do need more of that. I think there’s a broad agreement among the center-to-right that Obama has the country headed in the wrong direction. What we need is a positive vision of what we’d do differently, and that means putting Americans back in charge of their own success stories.

I would suggest Palin find a tutor in economics. Maybe Professor Walter E. Williams would take the job. It would probably serve her well.

crosspatch on May 25, 2011 at 3:06 AM

That would be awesome.

hawksruleva on May 25, 2011 at 10:24 AM

Policy, schmolicy. Every time I hear Herman Cain speak, I think the same thing as when I hear Huckabee. Barack Hussein Obama sounds like he’s giving sermons instead of speeches, and we need a break from that.

logis on May 25, 2011 at 11:03 AM