Mitch Daniels’s exit: You know who that helps?

posted at 7:26 pm on May 23, 2011 by Patrick Ishmael

The reason I added the “second choice” question to Hot Air’s Presidential survey months ago was so that I could figure out how the field might consolidate as candidates left the field. Even though the overall Presidential results are affected by whose candidates’ supporters are most active at Hot Air, the “second choice” survey exists fairly independently of the topline reality; whether 100 or 1000 of a candidate’s supporters come out to vote, the top “second choices” to that candidate stay pretty consistent month-to-month.

So now that Mitch Daniels has confirmed he won’t run, who does that help? Who were his supporters’ second choices? Well, Hot Air readers who voted for Daniels in May responded as follows:

The big winner from Daniels’ exit is pretty clear: Tim Pawlenty, who more than doubles the take of second-place beneficiary Mitt Romney. May’s results reasonably resemble April’s results, too, which are below:

Again Tim Pawlenty takes the lion’s share of the Mitch Daniels vote.

The more votes involved, the more probable (I think) it is that the “second choice” vote reflects the actual post-candidate-departure reality. Yet, even for Mike Huckabee, a candidate who wasn’t very popular at Hot Air, the second choice vote is still remarkably consistent.

For the last two months, the top three candidates in the Huckabee second-choice column have remained the same: Cain, Pawlenty, and Gingrich. Two are Southern candidates a la Huckabee, plus Pawlenty, so here again, Pawlenty seems to benefit from a candidate’s exit. I’ll leave it to you to conclude why this might be.

All of which is to say our June survey will probably see a reasonable-sized spike for Pawlenty, assuming everyone follows through on their second-choice picks. Also makes me think Pawlenty will see some movement in professionally conducted polls, too. (Cain might gain in the polls with the Huck exit, as well, although I think that will take more time to materialize given Cain’s general lack of name recognition.)

Anyway, I thought this was interesting. Questions? Comments? Ask ‘em here or on Twitter.

This post was promoted from GreenRoom to HotAir.com.
To see the comments on the original post, look here.


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Comments

This doesn’t strike me as a surprise. It’s exactly what I would have guessed.

JimP on May 23, 2011 at 7:30 PM

Flip Flopney!

Emperor Norton on May 23, 2011 at 7:31 PM

yeah I would agree. the only thing I wonde ris was Tpaw the second choice because he was the safe choice or do they really like Tpaw.

It would be interesting to see.

those looking for Mitch were those that didn’t want the top candidates to begin with.

I would think if any of the top names drop out they would go to the lesser known candidates. like for instanc eif Palin dropped out I would assume they would go to Bachmann or Cain. however the revers isn’t tru if say Bachmann drops out I don’t think many would flow to Palin or Mitt but would go to say Cain.

It is only after the field thins out will candidates dropping out beneift the top teri candidates as the people have less and less choice.

unseen on May 23, 2011 at 7:32 PM

Exactly. T-Paw will benefit from this pretty well.

My second choice has been John Bolton…tho now I’m really not sure.

JetBoy on May 23, 2011 at 7:33 PM

I thought it was going to be Romney then Huntman then T-Paw…

CCRWM on May 23, 2011 at 7:40 PM

The Kid from the Mean streets of St Paul strikes again.

portlandon on May 23, 2011 at 7:44 PM

I don’t know why I have the sneaking suspicion that Hot Air is going to be pushing T-Paw pretty hard.

I’v decided that so the GOP elites and Beltway types don’tpull a stunt where we get a RINO as the nominee, I’m not going to vote for whoever that candidate ends up being if they do so by sabotaging Palin. If they think that we will vote for their choice because we won’t vote for Obama ..they are wrong.

CCRWM on May 23, 2011 at 7:45 PM

Not exactly a compliment, but all of those Daniels votes have to go somewhere.

SouthernGent on May 23, 2011 at 7:45 PM

That squares with what I noticed at Intrade… but oddly, Obama’s chances the win have gone up 2-3% as well.

Maybe more people are just buying in to Intrade now the field is settling down. And they aren’t looking favorably on the candidates… or Obama’s bounce from bin Laden seems to be more resilient that it seemed last week, so he has a better chance.

I would have thought Obama’s dressing down from Netanyhu would have brought his favorables down. But no.

petunia on May 23, 2011 at 7:48 PM

Should probably remove rand paul next time. I really don’t see any evidence of a run from him.

clement on May 23, 2011 at 7:49 PM

Hey, that’s neat! Thanks!

I wonder if Sarah doesn’t run who that helps.

tinkerthinker on May 23, 2011 at 7:49 PM

I don’t know why I have the sneaking suspicion that Hot Air is going to be pushing T-Paw pretty hard.

I’v decided that so the GOP elites and Beltway types don’tpull a stunt where we get a RINO as the nominee, I’m not going to vote for whoever that candidate ends up being if they do so by sabotaging Palin. If they think that we will vote for their choice because we won’t vote for Obama ..they are wrong.

CCRWM on May 23, 2011 at 7:45 PM

Isn’t Ed from Minnesota? He likes T-Paw, naturally.

It has nothing to do with Palin!

petunia on May 23, 2011 at 7:50 PM

T-Paw is a governor who has shown some competence in managing his state’s budget. He is also emphasizing fiscal solutions in his campaign, including entitlement reform. These are the attributes that I was looking for in Daniels. I don’t think that T-Paw was as innovative or successful as Daniels as governor, but he did pretty well. Beyond T-Paw, I don’t see any grown ups in the field and really don’t have a 2nd choice now.

MJBrutus on May 23, 2011 at 7:50 PM

T-Paw is a governor who has shown some competence in managing his state’s budget. He is also emphasizing fiscal solutions in his campaign, including entitlement reform. These are the attributes that I was looking for in Daniels. I don’t think that T-Paw was as innovative or successful as Daniels as governor, but he did pretty well. Beyond T-Paw, I don’t see any grown ups in the field and really don’t have a 2nd choice now.

MJBrutus on May 23, 2011 at 7:50 PM

Cheers to that. Right there with ya.

JetBoy on May 23, 2011 at 7:55 PM

I’v decided that so the GOP elites and Beltway types don’tpull a stunt where we get a RINO as the nominee, I’m not going to vote for whoever that candidate ends up being if they do so by sabotaging Palin. If they think that we will vote for their choice because we won’t vote for Obama ..they are wrong.

CCRWM on May 23, 2011 at 7:45 PM
petunia on May 23, 2011 at 7:50 PM

New paragraph. I do not consder Ed a GOP elite of belteay type…

CCRWM on May 23, 2011 at 7:56 PM

BTW, did everyone catch Dr. Krauthammer stick his finger in the eye of his haters? He said something like, if his opinion makes him a cocktail sipping, country club elitist too bad :-)

MJBrutus on May 23, 2011 at 7:56 PM

My second choice has been John Bolton…tho now I’m really not sure.

JetBoy on May 23, 2011 at 7:33 PM

Looks like Bolton is ph*cked. The curse is upon him now.

I don’t know why I have the sneaking suspicion that Hot Air is going to be pushing T-Paw pretty hard.

Well, Ed’s been covering him for years, so naturally, I’d expect him to back him.

Personally, he seems like the only guy left that doesn’t totally suck. (Romney = Obamacare, Huntsman = No labels RINO crowd, the rest lack executive experience)

El_Terrible on May 23, 2011 at 7:57 PM

Looks like Bolton is ph*cked. The curse is upon him now.

I’m not sure I support him or not atm…he’s safe from “the curse”… for now.

JetBoy on May 23, 2011 at 7:59 PM

Other cockolds?

Reagan Republican on May 23, 2011 at 8:02 PM

Pawlenty has been my second choice everytime, but i’ll admit i don’t get the least bit excited about his running.

heshtesh on May 23, 2011 at 8:02 PM

I think Pawlenty will be the nominee, with Rubio as VP candidate (although Rubio has said he doesn’t want to run for president or VP in 2012, I think his mind can be changed). He’ll be picked for his minority status, his youth, and the fact that Florida is a swing state.

NathanG on May 23, 2011 at 8:09 PM

I don’t think it’s a good sign that he’s everyone’s second choice.

faraway on May 23, 2011 at 8:12 PM

the rest lack executive experience)

El_Terrible on May 23, 2011 at 7:57 PM

Huh?

chewmeister on May 23, 2011 at 8:15 PM

petunia on May 23, 2011 at 7:48 PM

Yuo know intrade got the Daniels thing 100% wrong. So much for the smart money meme being a good indicator. they got the Hucvk thing wrong too and the trump thing wrong…..just saying….

unseen on May 23, 2011 at 8:17 PM

Huh?

chewmeister on May 23, 2011 at 8:15 PM

Meant that the rest of the candidates, Newt, Bachmann?, Cain lack experience as a governor… I’d like to back someone who does have that experience.

El_Terrible on May 23, 2011 at 8:21 PM

Maybe more people are just buying in to Intrade now the field is settling down. And they aren’t looking favorably on the candidates… or Obama’s bounce from bin Laden seems to be more resilient that it seemed last week, so he has a better chance.

I would have thought Obama’s dressing down from Netanyhu would have brought his favorables down. But no.

petunia on May 23, 2011 at 7:48 PM

No, what they are buying is the narrative that the field of candidates on the GOP side is weak without mentioning that the the DNC is weaker. People won’t believe something if they are never presented with it. And let’s face it, a significant number of people don’t pay any attention to the blogosphere, talk radio or the news beyond the weather channel.

rmel80 on May 23, 2011 at 8:38 PM

FYI – We Palin supporters don’t have a second choice; that is how much we believe in our candidate. Of course, we were smart enough to research her record and confirm that Palin is the real deal. Unlike others, who go with the flavor of the week.

Ho hum! This week it is Pawlenty.

Amjean on May 23, 2011 at 8:43 PM

Pawlenty is the best current candidate who can beat Obama next Fall.
Randy

williars on May 23, 2011 at 8:52 PM

Unlike others, who go with the flavor of the week.

Ho hum! This week it is Pawlenty.

Amjean on May 23, 2011 at 8:43 PM

Complete junk. Ish gives you the data right here in this article (if you would only read it), Pawlenty was second choice for Daniels fans months in a row. For Huck fans too, two straight months their second choice: Pawlenty. That doesn’t make him the flavor of the month, it makes him a safe choice. Not exactly “knocks your socks off”, but “good enough”.

LastRick on May 23, 2011 at 8:58 PM

I don’t think it’s a good sign that he’s everyone’s second choice.

faraway on May 23, 2011 at 8:12 PM

Could be worse, could be everyone’s third (or fourth or …).

LastRick on May 23, 2011 at 9:00 PM

FYI – We Palin supporters don’t have a second choice; that is how much we believe in our candidate.

Amjean on May 23, 2011 at 8:43 PM

You realize that’s not true, right?

Patrick Ishmael on May 23, 2011 at 9:02 PM

He is a nice guy but he doesn’t have the nads to fight Dumb-Ø and the demon-rat machine. He also has no charisma. Allen West is my congressman and I agree with what he said on Fox this Sunday. We need a conservative with charisma. The only one who can match Dumb-Ø in the charisma department is Sarah. No one is going to make sure they get to the polls to vote for TPaw. And I’m not buying that ABØ garbage. It’s a conservative with charisma and a fighting spirit or they can keep Dumb-Ø. This country is too far gone. We need a major, major U turn. Palin’s the only reformer with executive experience.

Jayrae on May 23, 2011 at 9:07 PM

Why are the comments an hour behind?

katy the mean old lady on May 23, 2011 at 10:33 PM

Mitch Daniels’s exit: You know who that helps?

Yeah. Conservatism.

kingsjester on May 23, 2011 at 10:48 PM

T-Paw definitely has benefited from the departures/refusals to run lately. Huck’s left him open pastures among evangelicals, Daniels gives him the Midwestern Governor/wonk/establishment folks who don’t like Romney. He would also have gained from Gingrich’s gaffes if Gingrich had any support to take.

Now if Palin doesn’t run, Pawlenty can play the anti-Romney to Mitt’s right and hope it gets to a two-man race after SC so he can raise enough money. Perry talk is all well and good but if he doesn’t move soon, most of the pro workers and fundraisers will be committed to someone else.

Adjoran on May 24, 2011 at 5:41 AM