Is NY-26 Slipping Away?

posted at 11:45 am on May 21, 2011 by Jazz Shaw

With less than 72 hours to go in the muddled election for New York’s 26th congressional district seat, the final Siena poll for the race has some Democrats stocking up on party balloons and licking their chops in anticipation. (And this is a seat which has been held by a grand total of three Democrats since 1857.) Even though she had consistently held a slim, but manageable lead throughout, the numbers have been sliding in the wrong direction for Republican Jane Corwin for the last month. Dave Weigel reports over at Slate.

The new Siena poll in NY-26 has Kathy Hochul surging to a marginal lead over Republican Jane Corwin. The numbers, with trends”

Kathy Hochul (D) – 42 (+11)
Jane Corwin (R) – 38 (+2)
Jack Davis (Tea) – 12 (-9)
Ian Murphy (G) – 1 (no change)

Davis has taken a battering on the air, from both camps, but most of his supporters have moved over to Hochul. She now has an 8-point lead with independents, and she holds more Democrats (76 percent) than Corwin holds Republicans (66 percent). Another source of strength for Democrats: Among voters who don’t have jobs, Hochul leads by 7 points.

Normally Ed Morrissey is the expert in tearing apart cross tabs for polls, but here they are. The district has reliably performed as an R+6 for some time now and the sample was 41% Republican to 35% Democrat. Plus, Siena has a pretty solid track record.

Up until now, plenty of observers (as well as Hot Air readers) had written this off as a case of another 3rd party candidate mucking up the works. Previously, the assumption among some circles up here was that if voters became educated about fake Tea Party candidate Jack Davis, they would drift back over to Corwin and she would slide across the finish line with close to the usual margin. But the support for Davis is cratering in the final week and, oddly, the converts seem to be breaking toward Democrat Kathy Hochul. If Davis continues to fall at the current rate he may well finish in single digits and be less of a factor than originally assumed.

So where are the voters breaking? The three biggest issues of concern cited by voters were, in order, Medicare, the deficit and jobs. Among voters concerned with the deficit, it’s no surprise that Corwin sweeps them by a 21% margin. The largest group – those concerned about Medicare – are breaking for Hochul by a wider margin, 38 to 9. The shocker is in the third category – those concerned about jobs. Republicans should clean up in that area, but those voters have split evenly between Corwin and the Democrat.

I contacted a political consultant – who chose not to be identified – who is not involved in this election, but has worked on several upstate NY Congressional races to get his take on it. “I don’t see anything wrong with the sample at all,” he said. ” I can’t talk about it publicly, but we’re going to lose that race.”

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

I guess New Yorkers enjoy being whipped into bloody tatters by demorats, they are only delaying the inevitable.

Bishop on May 21, 2011 at 11:50 AM

Stupid, stupid people just don’t get it – there isn’t money to vote for. There is no option, there aren’t enough “rich” people, and you’re going to lose it all. Idiots.

This is what happens when children run the show.

disa on May 21, 2011 at 11:50 AM

Dang it. I bet we lose the House next year.

andy85719 on May 21, 2011 at 11:52 AM

With moron voters like we now have in this NY district now spread throughout the nation, Obama and the Dems are a shoo-in in 2012. These idiots learn nothing.

AUINSC on May 21, 2011 at 11:53 AM

Good thing polls are never wrong.

Neither are anonymous consultants.
/

Polls are great.

Election results are better.

artist on May 21, 2011 at 11:54 AM

Fate of GOP if it nominates Romney and runs on jobs.

promachus on May 21, 2011 at 11:55 AM

Ryan’s plan is killing us.

andy85719 on May 21, 2011 at 11:55 AM

DAVE WEIGEL reports it’s slipping away from Republicans.

The “Tea Party” candidate Jack Davis is a proven fraud, a Democrat.

DAVE WEIGEL reports:

Jack Davis personifies the Tea Party. Is that why Republicans are so afraid of him?
By David Weigel
Posted Thursday, May 19, 2011, at 11:45 AM ET”

Wake me the morning after.

Marcus on May 21, 2011 at 11:55 AM

Ryan’s plan is killing us.

andy85719 on May 21, 2011 at 11:55 AM

How is an incumbent Dem down double-digits?

In Rhode Island.

http://www.wpri.com/dpp/news/politics/congress/poll-republican-would-beat-cicilline

artist on May 21, 2011 at 12:00 PM

Democrats: Among voters who don’t have jobs, Hochul leads by 7 points.

Democrats: Increasing that voter pool day by day.

I wonder how she leads with people who don’t have jobs or have a public/union job?

reaganaut on May 21, 2011 at 12:01 PM

The national party has spent years referencing “Real America”. The implication is that places like NY and CA are not a part of “Real America”. Why on earth would you be trying to win races in NY??

ernesto on May 21, 2011 at 12:02 PM

Ryan’s plan is killing us.

The spin and lies about Ryan’s plan are influencing the squishies.

reaganaut on May 21, 2011 at 12:02 PM

Dave Weigel is as reliable as David Gregory.

DG: “There are plenty of political leaders in Israel who support Obama’s plan”
Scarborough: “Name some.”
DG: “Er….uhm…uhm….plenty!”

Marcus on May 21, 2011 at 12:04 PM

All because some middle-aged jackass tried to get chicks on Craig’s List.

Mark1971 on May 21, 2011 at 12:05 PM

andy85719 on May 21, 2011 at 11:52 AM

Naaah. Based on the indicators, we’re heading into a slowdown, most likely ending up with a double dip recession before 2012. The dems are going to get demolished.

ernesto on May 21, 2011 at 12:02 PM

Maybe if you guys in CA/NY stop pushing your left-wing social and economic values on the rest of the country, we can all get along just fine within our own states.

IR-MN on May 21, 2011 at 12:05 PM

seriously people, if you take a race where the Tea Party had to pour its resources into a fake Tea/Democrat, you really are trapped in the spin cycle. As for Ryan’s plan, calm down because oddly enough I believe Obamacare’s reality is worse to the voters.

rob verdi on May 21, 2011 at 12:08 PM

against a fake/tea candidate. my bad.

rob verdi on May 21, 2011 at 12:10 PM

rob verdi on May 21, 2011 at 12:08 PM

It’s a bit like the MA governor’s race. Fake independent running, and the GOP governor’s association wastes time and energy running adds against him, instead of focusing solely on Barack Jr.

This is their new play, but they are “telegraphing” it.

reaganaut on May 21, 2011 at 12:15 PM

They asked the question as “Jack Davis on the tea party line”. I.E. the question is loaded to pull R support away from Corwin to Davis and push support from Davis to Holchul.

clement on May 21, 2011 at 12:17 PM

When the Republican is down by 4 in a GOP +6 district, and 12% say they’re going for the fake Tea Party candidate who is really a far-left democrat, I’ll take my bets that the GOP candidate wins this one. The opinions of anonymous “political consultants” who say things like “we’re going to lose that race” aren’t worth a thing. “Oh, yeah, I’m 100% sure. No doubt about. It’s gonna happen. But, uh, don’t use my name, mkay?” Sheesh.

Rational Thought on May 21, 2011 at 12:19 PM

I don’t think this is slipping away. I think the 2010 tsunami is still raging, and President Obama’s endless string of mistakes and failures will result in a comfortable win.

Polls like this are incredibly unstable. Remember how the Wisconsin vote was supposed to have been a done deal against Prosser?

We will know Tuesday

AJStrata on May 21, 2011 at 12:19 PM

Those buyng lefty spin should read this by Cook:

The sudden media fascination with NY-26 obscures more interesting and pivotal developments elsewhere, Cook writes. To wit: Sen. Herb Kohl, D-Wis., retiring after four terms, and former Arkansas Republican Gov. Mike Huckabee deciding not to run for president.

Kohl’s departure gives Republicans a strong shot at another seat next year as they attempt to reclaim a U.S. Senate majority. Huckabee’s exit shakes up the 2012 presidential field by creating “a vacuum in the social, cultural, and religious bracket in this GOP nomination tournament,” Cook writes.

The special election outside Buffalo, N.Y., has captured national attention as both parties battle to succeed Republican Rep. Christopher Lee, who resigned in a personal scandal. Medicare reform also has become an issue in this closely watched contest.

But Cook basically describes NY-26 as a strictly local hometown contest involving an establishment Republican, Jane Corwin; a Democratic challenger, Kathy Hochul; and an eccentric, party-switching political neophyte who’s spending his own money to run as a tea partyer, Jack Davis.

“If anyone can find a race next year with a similar configuration, be my guest,” Cook writes. “But implying that the outcome . . . portends anything about any conventional race next year amounts to cheap spin and drive-by ‘analysis’.”

http://www.newsmax.com/Politics/NewYork-26-CharlieCook-election/2011/05/18/id/396779

rob verdi on May 21, 2011 at 12:23 PM

My guess is that Cuomo is taking the fear out of New Yorkers about Democrats. I figure the thinking is “Sure Obama is screwing up but OUR Democrats aren’t that bad”. Far too many people are stupid.

jnelchef on May 21, 2011 at 12:24 PM

The bottom line is that if the Republicans go after Medicare and Social Security, then they will lose.

The Democrats have been very good recently at messaging. They’re saying the Republicans will take away your health care and social security pension. And voters, especially seniors who vote for (R), don’t like that and they’ll vote for the other guys.

muckdog on May 21, 2011 at 12:24 PM

Slate?

Like they are an unbiased polling orginization.

percysunshine on May 21, 2011 at 12:25 PM

The Paul Ryan plan is killing us.

Here in NH this week we lost, by a huge margin, a special election for a State House seat (in a heavy Repub district) – right after sweeping in November.

The Dem ran on Repubs “killing” seniors, children with budget cuts.

We had Obama/Dems on the ropes with debt, deficit and jobs.

kevinkristy on May 21, 2011 at 12:29 PM

kevinkristy on May 21, 2011 at 12:29 PM

Then we die, because this is the hill to die on. The current spending, both discretionary and entitlement, is out of control. Paul Ryan’s plan doesn’t even go far enough, but it’s the best we have right now. If his plan can’t be passed, then we are well and truly boned.

The only way our economy survives is by privatizing and eliminating social security and turning medicare/medicaid into voucher programs.

KSgop on May 21, 2011 at 12:36 PM

There is one answer.

Sarah of Alaska to the rescue.

huckleberryfriend on May 21, 2011 at 12:38 PM

The shocker is in the third category – those concerned about jobs. Republicans should clean up in that area, but those voters have split evenly between Corwin and the Democrat.

What have Republicans done for jobs again? Bush had a net loss after 8 years, Obama’s not even had 3. Oh, I forgot, tax cuts for the rich to “create jobs”. Details details.

Rainsford on May 21, 2011 at 12:42 PM

Ryan’s plan is not killing us it is the lies about the plan and the GOP not responding or not being heard.

Rainsford on May 21, 2011 at 12:42 PM

It appears that Rainsford has found a way to get jobs from the poor. A good example of a person without a clue.

Vince on May 21, 2011 at 12:47 PM

Rainsford on May 21, 2011 at 12:42 PM

It is NOT the government’s responsibility to “create jobs”. The responsibility of the government is to create the regulatory and taxation environment that is conductive to the private sector creating jobs. Government “creation” of jobs is utter bulls*it and is what helped us get into the mess we’re in.

KSgop on May 21, 2011 at 12:52 PM

The Paul Ryan plan is killing us.

The lies (something dems are experts at) about the plan coupled with people’s self-centered unwillingness to face the reality that we’re broke and need to make drastic changes is what’s killing us.

Rod on May 21, 2011 at 12:53 PM

What have Republicans done for jobs again? Bush had a net loss after 8 years,
Rainsford on May 21, 2011 at 12:42 PM

Bush had a net increase of 3 million jobs. Detail, details!
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2009/01/09/bush-on-jobs-the-worst-track-record-on-record/

huckleberryfriend on May 21, 2011 at 12:55 PM

No post on Cain?

andy85719 on May 21, 2011 at 12:56 PM

The only way our economy survives is by privatizing and eliminating social security and turning medicare/medicaid into voucher programs.

KSgop on May 21, 2011 at 12:36 PM

Re Medicare, we have to make it clear to voters that there are really only two choices, democratics’ death panels, or Republicans’ higher degree of privatization. It must be one of those two.

slickwillie2001 on May 21, 2011 at 12:58 PM

The national party has spent years referencing “Real America”. The implication is that places like NY and CA are not a part of “Real America”. Why on earth would you be trying to win races in NY??

ernesto on May 21, 2011 at 12:02 PM

There you going again with the straw man.

You’re a liar. Why do you lie to your partners?

Funny thing is yesterday you reminded me of another liar though the other was President: ‘I did not have sexual relations with that woman Monica Lewinsky’ Clinton.
Again- think about that comment and your response to me. Your posts reek with deception. You liar.

CWforFreedom on May 21, 2011 at 12:58 PM

Then we die, because this is the hill to die on. The current spending, both discretionary and entitlement, is out of control. Paul Ryan’s plan doesn’t even go far enough, but it’s the best we have right now. If his plan can’t be passed, then we are well and truly boned.

The only way our economy survives is by privatizing and eliminating social security and turning medicare/medicaid into voucher programs.

KSgop on May 21, 2011 at 12:36 PM

This.

It would be better, anyway, if we were out of power when the economic system tanks. Let them own it.

trigon on May 21, 2011 at 12:59 PM

Then we die, because this is the hill to die on. The current spending, both discretionary and entitlement, is out of control.
KSgop on May 21, 2011 at 12:36 PM

Screw it. Let the economy crash. On Obama’s watch. Why should we get hammered on an issue that was never going to pass the Senate and/or signed by Obama?

We blew it.

kevinkristy on May 21, 2011 at 1:00 PM

So basically tea partiers will just pull the level for anything that says “Tea Party” without even looking at the issues. Once again they’re living up to my every expectation of them.

It's Vintage, Duh on May 21, 2011 at 1:00 PM

Here in NH this week we lost, by a huge margin, a special election for a State House seat (in a heavy Repub district) – right after sweeping in November.

The Dem ran on Repubs “killing” seniors, children with budget cuts.

We had Obama/Dems on the ropes with debt, deficit and jobs.

kevinkristy on May 21, 2011 at 12:29 PM

That NH race was a factor of the state legislature over-reaching & acting like morons.

NH isn’t Texas.

They tried to ban the TSA, legalize gay marriage, legalize weed and heroin, etc…

This race was a backlash against the overreach nothing to do with Paul Ryan.

tetriskid on May 21, 2011 at 1:02 PM

So basically tea partiers will just pull the level for anything that says “Tea Party” without even looking at the issues. Once again they’re living up to my every expectation of them.

It’s Vintage, Duh on May 21, 2011 at 1:00 PM

Uhhh… it’s NY.

People there are idiots.

tetriskid on May 21, 2011 at 1:03 PM

its vintage,
its almost like voting for someone based on a catchy phrase like “change”.

rob verdi on May 21, 2011 at 1:04 PM

The bottom line is that if the Republicans go after Medicare and Social Security, then they will lose.

Then we will lose.

Seriously, who cares? This isn’t a “battle for the direction of the country” anymore. This isn’t about “building a better future.”

This is about stopping before going off a cliff. After a hundred miles over eighty years, we’re two steps from the brink. If America still doesn’t want to stop spending, why should we want the GOP to lead the way as we take the final three steps?

HitNRun on May 21, 2011 at 1:07 PM

On the business news right now:

1. Obama wishing to nationalize the 401Ks and etc. “because they are safer with the gov’t”
2. Forgave Egypt and Syria their debt, rewarding Syria for killing demonstrators
3. Senate to punish U.S. oil producers with higher taxes

Vote libera, fools. YOU and your progeny deserve them, fully. Be scroomed royally.

Schadenfreude on May 21, 2011 at 1:08 PM

Have they opened the floodgates we a new batch of tr….a lot of names I don’t recognize.

P. Monk on May 21, 2011 at 1:11 PM

Uhhh… it’s NY.

People there are idiots.

tetriskid on May 21, 2011 at 1:03 PM

Thanks.

We haven’t voted yet. If “we” are so dumb the fact that Corwin will be on the ballot 3 times (Republican,Conservative, and Independance)) Hochul twice (Dem and Working familes)and Davis once (tea (not tea party, and at the very bottom of the ballot below green party)) should give her an advantage. I can’t see voters even looking for a tea party line in the first place.

clement on May 21, 2011 at 1:13 PM

As usual…the Republican wants to get people jobs to get them off unemployment.
The Dems as usual are going for the government “entitlements” and hand downs.

Twana on May 21, 2011 at 1:15 PM

I’d like to thank all the “true cons” and all the “real cons” who constantly talk down the party and tell people how much the Republican “establishment” suck. Its finally trickled down and is helping destroy the GOP.

swamp_yankee on May 21, 2011 at 1:22 PM

Since this congressional district is likely to be one of the two eliminated by the state legislature between now and the 2012 elections due to redistricting, I’d say this only calls for limited hand-wringing, at best. It would be nice if Corwin pulls it out, but in the end this is going to have about as much long-term meaning when it comes to next year’s elections as the NY-23 election in 2009 had in forecasting the 2010 midterms.

jon1979 on May 21, 2011 at 1:31 PM

jon1979 on May 21, 2011 at 1:31 PM

The only real consequence is having to listen to the Kossacks and other Left-Dem wonks howl on about winning back the House next year.

And really, the only reason that’s bothersome is the grating absurdity of watching people gloat and exalt about their concert seats on the Titanic.

HitNRun on May 21, 2011 at 1:36 PM

clement on May 21, 2011 at 1:13 PM

The fraud “TEA Party” candidate maxed out to Obama, ran twice as a Dem, & is on tape committing assault.

Still the fraud candidate is polling in the double digits…

So, yeah. I stick by my statement.

tetriskid on May 21, 2011 at 1:36 PM

I’d like to thank all the “true cons” and all the “real cons” who constantly talk down the party and tell people how much the Republican “establishment” suck. Its finally trickled down and is helping destroy the GOP.

swamp_yankee on May 21, 2011 at 1:22 PM

Then get your head screwed on straight and stop sucking.

trigon on May 21, 2011 at 1:54 PM

26 has little to do with Ryan’s budget and more to do with Davis…

speaking of budgets… where’s the Dems budget?

mjbrooks3 on May 21, 2011 at 2:00 PM

Reminds me of the summer of ’09:

Someone reportedly told [Reg. Robert Inglis (R-SC), “Keep your government hands off my Medicare.”
“I had to politely explain that, ‘Actually, sir, your health care is being provided by the government,’” Inglis told the Post. “But he wasn’t having any of it.”

YYZ on May 21, 2011 at 2:08 PM

notice how the green party is getting 1 percent. the left ain’t stupid anymore. They were burned with Nader one time and that was it.

r keller on May 21, 2011 at 2:23 PM

Up until now, plenty of observers (as well as Hot Air readers) had written this off as a case of another 3rd party candidate mucking up the works.

Or it could be that Mitch McConnell and John Boehner have managed to zap every bit of enthusiasm for the Republican party.

People aren’t impressed. Why elect Republicans? Seriously? There’s no case to be made for them.

HondaV65 on May 21, 2011 at 2:37 PM

notice how the green party is getting 1 percent. the left ain’t stupid anymore. They were burned with Nader one time and that was it.

r keller on May 21, 2011 at 2:23 PM

No that’s NOT the reason. Nader no longer has anything to offer – the Dimmocrit party has been conquered by it’s leftist radicals – the Dimmocrit party IS the Green Party.

The Democrats realized finally, that turning their back on their base wasn’t going to win them elections. That running “vanilla” moderate candidates wasn’t going to win elections.

The GOP hasn’t learned this and is currently crapping on it’s own base. This is going to result in a THIRD PARTY coming along and saying … “Hey – the Republicans don’t care for you – but we will” … And the base will slide to that party.

And then the POS Republicans will then BLAME said third party for causing the GOP to lose races when, in fact – the GOP will have brought it on itself by forsaking it’s most enthusiastic voters.

HondaV65 on May 21, 2011 at 2:42 PM

The only real consequence is having to listen to the Kossacks and other Left-Dem wonks howl on about winning back the House next year.

And really, the only reason that’s bothersome is the grating absurdity of watching people gloat and exalt about their concert seats on the Titanic.
HitNRun,

+10

rob verdi on May 21, 2011 at 2:43 PM

What have Republicans done for jobs again? Bush had a net loss after 8 years,
Rainsford on May 21, 2011 at 12:42 PM

No surprise, liberal concern troll Rainsford is just repeating Pelosi’s lies like a good parrot.

Next comes the big whopper — wait for Rainsford Pelosi to start screaming about how small Obama’s deficit is.

northdallasthirty on May 21, 2011 at 2:50 PM

The national party has spent years referencing “Real America”. The implication is that places like NY and CA are not a part of “Real America”. Why on earth would you be trying to win races in NY??

ernesto on May 21, 2011 at 12:02 PM

There’s a saying that the older you get the wiser you become. You’re the exception.

angryed on May 21, 2011 at 2:54 PM

It would be nice if Corwin pulls it out, but in the end this is going to have about as much long-term meaning when it comes to next year’s elections as the NY-23 election in 2009 had in forecasting the 2010 midterms.

jon1979 on May 21, 2011 at 1:31 PM

There you go. Point out to the Obamabots that losing this district in 2009 led to the 2010 landslide.

That should blow their tiny brains up.

northdallasthirty on May 21, 2011 at 2:58 PM

I remember, during the election of 2006, not one media outlet asked the Democrats what they were going to do if they took back the House (not many people thought the Senate was in play). All the Democrats talked about was the “culture of corruption” and never were asked any serious questions. It looks like a replay of that media tact and the Republicans had better recognize it and deal with it promptly.

I would suggest that they start responding to questions about Paul Ryan’s plan and if they support it that they do right now because it’s the only one out there. They know the Democrats voted to take away a half trillion dollars from Medicare already and they didn’t believe that was fair so Paul Ryan’s plan looks like it could be a viable alternative. Just keep pushing the Democrats don’t have a plan out there and just keep making that point until the Democrats either put out a plan or stop demagoguing Ryan’s plan.

bflat879 on May 21, 2011 at 2:58 PM

HondaV65 on May 21, 2011 at 2:42 PM

I do believe the Dim party has been purified. But there are leftists who are unhappy (or at least claim to be unhappy) with barry…but they will vote for him and his minions…they won’t put him at risk from the left.

Trumka is a good example. He gave a very demagogic speech yesterday (the newspaper guild loved it). The unions will be out in force in 12 (both money and direct action). Trumka’s vision is solid left. But what he is really doing is concentrating the firepower of the unions into the local races, to fire up barry’s base.

This is the counter-punch to last Nov. It will be a strong push back…like WI

Are Rs up to that kind of fight? I kind of doubt it at this point. Trumka can be refuted…but it takes a strong will and the courage to face down the lies.

r keller on May 21, 2011 at 3:05 PM

Accusations are already being aired between GOP county chairmen. Not a good sign.

paul1149 on May 21, 2011 at 3:17 PM

We actually live in NY-26, and I can say personally that we are SICK TO DEATH of the NY GOP. The party elites think they ought to be able to dictate to us stupid country hicks what we should think, and who we should vote for, just the same as Democrat party elite think they can dictate to minorities and inner city residents.

We have been bombarded daily with multiple mailers from the Corwin campaign, the state GOP, and assorted out-of-state PACs. Not ONE of them has actually stated what Corwin stands for, how she will vote or what she intends to do if elected. The only message is that she is the anointed Republican and every other candidate is evil!

I have never liked Jane Corwin from the get-go. Corwin primaried the then current Rep. assemblyman using her inherited family wealth, running a negative campaign then as well, breaking her original promise not to.

Jane Corwin represents the wealthy, entitled, urban establishment GOP, not the ordinary working class residents of the district. The tiny little dot on the map that we live in reliably votes about 95% Republican, but there is not one “Elect Jane Corwin” sign to be seen anywhere for miles.

IF Kathy Hochul wins, the actual voters of the district will understand that it has nothing whatsoever to do with a desire to elect a Democrat, and everything to do with breaking the stranglehold of the State GOP on local politics. When the GOP establishment actually decides to support we the people, then they’ll get our votes.

mcc4 on May 21, 2011 at 3:24 PM

btw, Huntsman gave a coherent answer to the question on the Ryan plan:

including the Medicare provisions. Because the only thing that scares me more than that is the trajectory that our debt is taking. And the trajectory that our debt is taking now beyond $14 trillion is going to have an impact on our currency. It goes south, and our currency’s going to have an impact on our standard of living and affect every family in this country, and over time, our international competitiveness. So what is really scary I think to me and I think most Americans is our debt. And we’ve got to be bold, and we’ve got to have, I think, proposals on the table that perhaps in years past would’ve been laughed out of the room. And we’ve got to look seriously at them. We don’t have a choice. We’ve hit the wall.

This is a very interesting answer because of the emphasis on currency…which is a fancy way of saying that the world money won’t come to the US, because of profligacy and poor business conditions.

That is true. He needs to enlarge this. And maybe speak specifically about Trumka’s vision.

r keller on May 21, 2011 at 3:33 PM

Haven’t heard squat about the RNC involvement up there. No surprise, though. I never expect much from them except their ability to throw their own under the bus.

ultracon on May 21, 2011 at 3:43 PM

We actually live in NY-26, and I can say personally that we are SICK TO DEATH of the NY GOP. The party elites think they ought to be able to dictate to us stupid country hicks what we should think, and who we should vote for, just the same as Democrat party elite think they can dictate to minorities and inner city residents.

We have been bombarded daily with multiple mailers from the Corwin campaign, the state GOP, and assorted out-of-state PACs. Not ONE of them has actually stated what Corwin stands for, how she will vote or what she intends to do if elected. The only message is that she is the anointed Republican and every other candidate is evil!

I have never liked Jane Corwin from the get-go. Corwin primaried the then current Rep. assemblyman using her inherited family wealth, running a negative campaign then as well, breaking her original promise not to.

Jane Corwin represents the wealthy, entitled, urban establishment GOP, not the ordinary working class residents of the district. The tiny little dot on the map that we live in reliably votes about 95% Republican, but there is not one “Elect Jane Corwin” sign to be seen anywhere for miles.

IF Kathy Hochul wins, the actual voters of the district will understand that it has nothing whatsoever to do with a desire to elect a Democrat, and everything to do with breaking the stranglehold of the State GOP on local politics. When the GOP establishment actually decides to support we the people, then they’ll get our votes.

mcc4 on May 21, 2011 at 3:24 PM

And your solution to all of this is to…vote democrat? Then I guess you’ll get the government you deserve. But, hey, you’ll have made a big ‘ole point. You’ll be broke. And unemployed. And paying staggering taxes. And waiting in line for your meeting with the death panel. But dammit, you’ll have made your point!

Rational Thought on May 21, 2011 at 4:18 PM

Thanks in no small part to the Democrat owned and operated MSM in NYS and the rest of the country.

Mr. Grump on May 21, 2011 at 4:49 PM

Rational Thought,
how rational.

rob verdi on May 21, 2011 at 5:04 PM

It is unreasonable to hold the view that if the Republicans do not propose dramatic cuts in spending the Tea Party should form a third party and at the same time condemn Paul Ryan’s plan for curbing entitlement spending (which is so much of the budget any credible plan must address it) because it threatens driving the seniors over to the Democrats. If the Republicans do not propose realistic and necessary cuts, they lose because a third party splits the vote and if they do, they lose because they are demogogued for not offering fraudulent pandering by pretending the spending party can keep on going.

The Dems do not discuss their real plan which is to inflate the currency to rob everyone with savings of the value of their money while the administration prints money to buy our own Treasury debt that is then used to buy support and reward their cronies. Instead of beating the GOP because it cannot be all things to all people simultaneously without lying about what they would actually do if in power, it might behoove people to talk about what the Dems are actually doing but the MSM is not talking about.

KW64 on May 21, 2011 at 6:03 PM

Any Republican expecting political gains in New York State is like a middle aged man marrying a young prostitute and expecting fidelity. New Yorkers don’t know how to vote Republican if (quite literally) if their livelihoods , futures or even their own lives depended on it. But when bailout time goes, like California, they will look to everybody else for help and will be “outraged” if they do not receive it.

MaiDee on May 21, 2011 at 7:48 PM

We actually live in NY-26, and I can say personally that we are SICK TO DEATH of the NY GOP. The party elites think they ought to be able to dictate to us stupid country hicks what we should think, and who we should vote for, just the same as Democrat party elite think they can dictate to minorities and inner city residents.

We have been bombarded daily with multiple mailers from the Corwin campaign, the state GOP, and assorted out-of-state PACs. Not ONE of them has actually stated what Corwin stands for, how she will vote or what she intends to do if elected. The only message is that she is the anointed Republican and every other candidate is evil!

I have never liked Jane Corwin from the get-go. Corwin primaried the then current Rep. assemblyman using her inherited family wealth, running a negative campaign then as well, breaking her original promise not to.

Jane Corwin represents the wealthy, entitled, urban establishment GOP, not the ordinary working class residents of the district. The tiny little dot on the map that we live in reliably votes about 95% Republican, but there is not one “Elect Jane Corwin” sign to be seen anywhere for miles.

IF Kathy Hochul wins, the actual voters of the district will understand that it has nothing whatsoever to do with a desire to elect a Democrat, and everything to do with breaking the stranglehold of the State GOP on local politics. When the GOP establishment actually decides to support we the people, then they’ll get our votes.

mcc4 on May 21, 2011 at 3:24 PM

mcc4:

I understand your frustration, I live Upstate also. The NY GOP is a cowardly and venal organization, and yes it has some opportunistic poseurs who run for office.

But if you think you’re teaching them a lesson by staying home, I hate to tell you, but the lesson they take away every time they lose an election to the Democrats is this: “we lost because we weren’t liberal enough”.

Sometimes you just have to hold your nose, and do the “lesser evil” thing. Eventually, if they get enough momentum, they will move rightward. But it takes time and patience. This ain’t Texas.

Dreadnought on May 21, 2011 at 11:22 PM

Polls on special congressional elections are not particularly reliable. It is difficult to get an accurate screen for likely voters in a special election because a significant portion of those who proclaim their absolute intention to vote in it will not actually cast a ballot.

Showing your displeasure with the NY State GOP by allowing the Democrats to win a House seat seems much like cutting off your feet because your toenails were annoyingly long.

Adjoran on May 22, 2011 at 6:33 AM

Jack Davis in my opinion is a fraud, charlatan and transparent moron. If Western NY republicans fall for some nebulous reference to the Tea Party, then they deserve the other fraud, Hochul.

The New York Republican Party alas, has a long and storied history of nominating and voting for candidates that make Lenny in Of Mice and Men look like a Doctoral candidate. Pierre Renfret springs to mind.

Jane Corwin is as good a Republican and Conservative candidate as you will ever see in New York State (or NYC too for that matter) and the Republican Party is ready to carry her out on her shield already. Good thing I don’t live in NY-26.

Mr. Grump on May 22, 2011 at 12:18 PM

Then we die, because this is the hill to die on. The current spending, both discretionary and entitlement, is out of control. Paul Ryan’s plan doesn’t even go far enough, but it’s the best we have right now. If his plan can’t be passed, then we are well and truly boned.

The only way our economy survives is by privatizing and eliminating social security and turning medicare/medicaid into voucher programs.

KSgop on May 21, 2011 at 12:36 PM

+1. This is the hill to die on, folks, if it comes to that.

HOLD THE LINE.

Caiwyn on May 22, 2011 at 11:49 PM