NY-26: Heads you win, tails we lose
posted at 4:47 pm on May 20, 2011 by Jazz Shaw
The special congressional election in western New York’s 26th district is down to the final few days and, as we previously predicted, it’s turning out to be a mess. Republican Jane Corwin is fighting a two front battle in the traditionally GOP heavy district. Democrat Kathy Hochul is attacking from one side, trying to pin Corwin’s ears back by tying her to the “Paul Ryan is going to destroy Medicare” meme. On the other front, fake Tea Party candidate Jack Davis is siphoning off votes from voters who haven’t been following the news. No matter how this nail biter turns out, Roll Call concludes that it’s almost a no-win situation for the GOP.
Republican strategists are now praying that they never, ever have another special election in New York state.
First they failed to win a 2009 special election to take back Democrat Kirsten’s Gillibrand’s open seat (which they won back last year). Then, later that year, they lost the open seat in New York’s 23rd district, which had been represented by Republican John McHugh.
And now, with the special election in New York’s 26th district just five days away, Democrat Kathy Hochul has at least an even-money chance of swiping a seat Democrats never figured they could win.
The problem for Republicans is that even if GOP Assemblywoman Jane Corwin comes back to win the special election in a district that was Sen. John McCain’s (R-Ariz.) best in the state — a district he carried by 6 points over Barack Obama — nobody will care.
While depressing, they make a fair point. If Corwin prevails on Tuesday, the general response will likely be, “Oh, that’s nice. You managed to carry an R+7 district. Yawn.” But if they lose, this race will become the Democrats’ poster child advertisement about how the “Republican wave is over” and “Paul Ryan has doomed the GOP for 2012.”
Plus, the GOP still hold a very substantial majority in the House. One seat more or less isn’t going to make tsunami level headlines. But that doesn’t mean it’s not worth the effort. As a final reminder, all of the money pouring into the race can do a lot, but nothing replaces good old fashioned GOTV boots on the ground in the last five days. If you know anyone in or near the 26th, it might be a good time to get hold of them, hook them up with the Corwin campaign, and give them something to occupy their time this weekend. (At least until they get Raptured.)
MORE: Hot Air friend Kerry Picket of the Washington Times has an up close and personal interview with Corwin on the state of the race and her conservative positions.
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Is there a substitute for the real thing? I barely trust Republicans spouting the lower tax mantra, I’d have to call instant B.S. on a Democrat.
Cindy Munford on March 6, 2013 at 11:24 AM
Former Russian President Medvedev is still available.
Mr. Arrogant on March 6, 2013 at 11:25 AM
another sign, that a 3rd party will arise.
renalin on March 6, 2013 at 11:26 AM
Isn’t this the city that spent nearly 1 billion dollars on a high school…built an underground transit system across a fault line?
I don’t have much hope for that city, maybe a bit more than S.F…but not much.
right2bright on March 6, 2013 at 11:32 AM
I hope the Democrat light will be successful we need to stop the blue bleeding into the red states.
ChunkyLover on March 6, 2013 at 11:35 AM
It’s not half-cent tax increase, Ed. It’s half-percent. Please adjust the article.
Archivarix on March 6, 2013 at 11:40 AM
Interesting. I wonder if the “top two” primary system will have the effect of moderating some of the irredeemably Democrat city governments.
Count to 10 on March 6, 2013 at 11:43 AM
…16%?…they need more ‘illegals’ to vote!…oh?…maybe, that is who turned out!
KOOLAID2 on March 6, 2013 at 11:49 AM
L. A. is irretrievably lost. The next mayor will preside over its bankruptcy filing which Villagaigosa was able to avoid by kicking the fiscal can down the road. Just another city the public employee unions have managed to destroy.
The piper will be paid.
skeneogden on March 6, 2013 at 12:01 PM
With the GOP looking more and more like Democrat Lites, one can only hope.
hawkeye54 on March 6, 2013 at 12:04 PM
I am actually quite upset in this election result because this is one where some work could have swung this for the Republicans. Democrats outnumber Republicans 2:1 in LA County but voter turnout for this election was under 20%. In elections with very thin turnout, even a modest effort to get people to the polls can flip an election. It didn’t even have to be a high profile effort, it could have been a “stealth” effort. And you would figure with the California Republican Convention having just been held in the region last weekend, there would have been plenty of manpower around to help. It appears to me there wasn’t really much of an effort on the part of the state and LA County committees to actually get people to the polls on this.
It is exactly this kind of odd, off year election that we need to start concentrating on to get these Democrats pulled out of office at the local level. We need to start paying more attention to these local city and county elections. Maybe part of the problem was the Republican, Kevin James, was an openly gay candidate, I don’t know, but there doesn’t appear to have been any effort to get Republicans to the polls in an election where Democrats would not be voting heavily.
crosspatch on March 6, 2013 at 12:06 PM
Those are essentially the same thing. For exapmle, most California counties have what is known as a “half-cent sales tax” for the purpose of funding transportation projects, which means a tax of $0.005 for every $1.00 spent.
steebo77 on March 6, 2013 at 12:20 PM
I hate the idea of a separate, conservative party for minorities, but given their deep hatred of the GOP, I wonder if it’s not a possible solution for ending the Democrats’ dominance over this voting bloc. Single party rule serves no one, and minority-controlled cities, states, and districts suffer corruption for their self-imposed lack of choices. Someone wrote last week about how the CBC is the most corrupt caucus in Congress, and it’s because voters in black districts refuse to vote Republican. Furthermore, there are plenty of latinos, Asians, and blacks who want smaller government, but simply will not support the GOP brand. I don’t think that will change for at least a generation, so a new party may be their best chance at good governance, and our best chance at confounding the Democrats’ plan at dominating politics.
EricW on March 6, 2013 at 12:28 PM
Don’t ever listen to what a democrat candidate says, watch what they do when elected. It is always the same, tax more, spend more, corrupt more.
jukin3 on March 6, 2013 at 1:10 PM
“Meet the new boss. Same as the old boss.”
Khun Joe on March 6, 2013 at 1:43 PM
“..both of whom have their hands on the toilet handle, poised to flush upon their respective ascendency.”
The War Planner on March 6, 2013 at 1:48 PM
They are both liberal hacks. The unions have won again. I would guess they were largely the people who voted.
In other CA news, Jerry Brown has taken a page from Obama: Jerryphones to the Homeless!, cuz we are rich and the homeless and poor need to coordinate their social activies.
PattyJ on March 6, 2013 at 2:00 PM
Public employee union shills. Both of them.
nico on March 6, 2013 at 2:00 PM
as a resident of Texas, i hope they fix things well enough to keep their liberals from relocating here
burserker on March 6, 2013 at 4:46 PM
How can Eric and Wendy bring about any meaningful reform when they are captives of the very forces that have driven L.A. into the mess it currently faces:
The Public Employee Unions, and the Entitlement Movement and its Apparatchiks?
Bankruptcy is in the City’s future, and everyone knows it.
Will Jerry Brown have to appoint an administrator when the City files for Bankruptcy, and what Republican would take that job, and is any Democrat suicidal enough to consider it?
Another Drew on March 6, 2013 at 6:00 PM