Q-Poll: Is Sarah Palin unelectable?

posted at 7:52 pm on May 5, 2011 by Karl

If you took the latest Quinnipiac University poll at face value, you might think so:

However, there is ample reason to not take this poll at face value.

As political scientist John Sides has noted (with little effect on the establishment media, much to his chagrin) about 90% of the public is partisan and about 80-90% of those voters vote for their party’s candidate. Thus, presidential elections tend to turn on the difference in turnout between Republicans and Democrats and the distribution of the so-called Independent vote. On the latter factor, it is important to note that pollsters often treat Independents synonymously with swing voters, when only 7-10% of Independents are truly indepenedent. The rest are weak partisans who overwhelmingly vote their partisan sympathies. Incidentally, the folks at Quinnipiac know this and have been known to separate leaners out from true Indies — but it does not appear that they did so in this poll.

Accordingly, when turning back to the Q-Poll, it’s a good bet that some or most of the 24% of Republicans who told Quinnipiac they would never vote for Palin are fooling themselves. Conversely, 50% of Democrats may say they would consider voting for Mitt Romney, but the real answer is probably closer to the 91% who say they would never vote for Palin.

Palin also scores badly with so-called Indies in the Q-Poll: 58% say they would never vote for her. However, we don’t know how many of the true independents are in that group, as opposed to Democrat leaners. Indeed, with Democratic Party ID hitting a 22-year low at the same time as a high for Independent ID, it is a fair bet that the number of Democrat leaners has been on the rise.

Nevertheless, the Q-Poll does hold some basic lessons about a prospective Palin candidacy. Because partisan turnout is a key factor to winning, Sarah’s supporters often claim that she energizes the GOP base in a way that her potential rivals do not. The Q-Poll (and most polls about hypothetical 2012 fields) suggest Palinistas are overstating their case. The number of voters — both in general and among Republicans — who say they are enthusiastic about voting for Palin are not significantly higher than those for Romney or Mike Huckabee. Moreover, some GOPers who say they would never vote for Palin may be fooling themselves, but that 24% suggests a lack of enthusiasm for Palin as a standard-bearer (dismiss such folks as RINOs, but they also affect turnout).

Similarly, while Palin’s problems with Indies may be overstated, her showing with them remains at least a caution flag. Based on the Q-Poll, we simply don’t know to what extent Palin has turned off true Independents, which is crucial in her case because she (unlike all of her potential rivals) is near-universally known. If she has lost that 7-10% of the electorate, it would take a much bigger shift in the overall political environment to win them over, relative to other possible GOP nominees. Furthermore, her poor score with so-called Independents — even if we acknowledge that many are Democrat leaners — may also speak to enthusiasm and turnout. Palin certainly excites a segment of the GOP base, but she may also boost Democratic enthusiasm.

Reading the Q-Poll against the fairly strong trends in presidential elections discussed here, I would hypothesize that Palin’s actual profile probably resembles that of another candidate tested in the poll: Newt Gingrich. He is well-known. Roughly 12% of Republicans say they will not vote for him. He scores poorly with Independents and worse with Democrats. If this hypothesis is correct, we would expect the percentage of voters who would never vote for Palin to be somewhere in the high-30s to low-40s (Republicans would be more enthused about Palin than Gingrich). Is such a candidate electable? You betcha — but if you imagine trying to elect Newt, you can imagine that it might not be easy.

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

Comment pages: 1 3 4 5 6

To repeat this to you for about the hundredth time……abdication of one’s job IS a matter of principle. A HUGE one for most Americans.

csdeven on May 6, 2011 at 12:50 PM

This is an easy fix. In the very first debate between her and Obama (which will have superbowl audience numbers with no MSM filter), the libtard moderator’s very first question to her is going to be: “Governor Palin, why did you quit your job and abandon the voters of Alaska who elected you?”

Palin’s response: I resigned when I did so I could beat Obama in 2012. Because of the laws in Alaska at the time, which have since been changed because of the way Obama’s apparatchiks abused them, ethics complaints can be filed up to two years after a governor leaves office. After watching the most think-skinned president in American history make it his personal mission to destroy me just because I criticized him in my convention speech, I knew he would use that entire two year window to file frivolous ethics violations against me, even though each one that has been file has been thrown out. This is why I resigned in July 2009 and announced my candidacy in July 2011. His thugs may have been able to reduce my approval rating from the highest of any governor in the United States down to what his current approval rating is. However they weren’t able to keep me from leaving my state with a twelve billion dollar surplus, they weren’t able to keep the voters of Alaska from re-electing my Lt. Governor by a wide margin, and they damn sure weren’t able to torpedo this candidacy for president.

Kataklysmic on May 6, 2011 at 1:14 PM

Interesting – Indies voted for an unqualified Obama who bailed on his Senate job based on personal ambition but will refuse to vote for Palin who quit her Governship rather than be personally bankrupted? And somehow I’m supposed t consider them good arbiters of who is honorable? And in an effort to pander to these Indies the GOP is supposed to ignore any principles they have? I guess then none of us will end up with who we want.

katiejane on May 6, 2011 at 1:11 PM

We’re doomed. I’m beginning to think that a majority of Americans do deserve another four years of Obama. The only thing that keeps me fighting is that I know I don’t.

gryphon202 on May 6, 2011 at 1:15 PM

We’re doomed. I’m beginning to think that a majority of Americans do deserve another four years of Obama. The only thing that keeps me fighting is that I know I don’t.

gryphon202 on May 6, 2011 at 1:15 PM

Amen.

Kataklysmic on May 6, 2011 at 1:17 PM

We’re doomed. I’m beginning to think that a majority of Americans do deserve another four years of Obama. The only thing that keeps me fighting is that I know I don’t.

gryphon202 on May 6, 2011 at 1:15 PM

We all need to keep on fighting otherwise it’s be 4 more years of this…..

“…The president is expected any day now to sign an executive order that routs 70 years of efforts to get politics out of official federal business.

Under the order, all companies (and their officers) would be required to list their political donations as a condition to bidding for government contracts. Companies can bid and lose out for the sin of donating to Republicans. Or they can protect their livelihoods by halting donations to the GOP altogether—which is the White House’s real aim. Think of it as “not-pay to play.”

“…The draft order, which came out last month, would require federal bidders to supply a complete list of all political contributions made by the company, its political action committee, and its senior executives—going back two full years. (Richard Nixon would be impressed.) More astounding, the order requires the list to include donations made to third-party political groups—disclosure that is not currently required by law, and that is, as a result, surely unconstitutional.”

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703992704576305414137806694.html?mod=wsj_share_twitter

tencole on May 6, 2011 at 1:25 PM

Kataklysmic on May 6, 2011 at 1:14 PM

It’s amazing the quitter meme keeps getting parroted.
WTH you should have to CONTINUALLY give the evidence as to why, you still get the same stupid line about her being nothing but a quitter.
They would rather have seen her destroy the office with needless lawsuits & take disgusting delight evidently in seeing the complete financial ruination of her family as well.
Idiots.

Badger40 on May 6, 2011 at 1:44 PM

Under the order, all companies (and their officers) would be required to list their political donations as a condition to bidding for government contracts.
tencole on May 6, 2011 at 1:25 PM

REALLY?
WTF?!

Badger40 on May 6, 2011 at 1:45 PM

We’re doomed. I’m beginning to think that a majority of Americans do deserve another four years of Obama. The only thing that keeps me fighting is that I know I don’t.

gryphon202 on May 6, 2011 at 1:15 PM

Amen.

Kataklysmic on May 6, 2011 at 1:17 PM

Boy oh boy do I agree with both your posts! Its going
to be a battle between the dumb, the not so dumb or smart
and the smart. Depends on where the percentages fall.

Amjean on May 6, 2011 at 1:48 PM

It’s amazing the quitter meme keeps getting parroted.
…. They would rather have seen her destroy the office with needless lawsuits & take disgusting delight evidently in seeing the complete financial ruination of her family as well.
Badger40 on May 6, 2011 at 1:44 PM

It’s hard to understand why this is such a problem. The people whining about it never deny that she could/would have been personally bankrupted and the state of Alaska would have incurred significant expense by the continuing lawsuits. They don’t deny that having to defend against the lawsuits would have significantly impacted Palin’s ability to do her job as Governor. But in spite of all that they think she should have allowed the DNC and the coven of anklebiter shrews a ready target.

They act like she was their mommy who abandoned them at daycare. No one objects to politicians who abandon the offices the voters elected them to in pursuit of higher office. They don’t criticze Obama, Biden, Hillary for bailing on the voters who elected them to the Senate, bailed for personal ambition. Makes no sense.

katiejane on May 6, 2011 at 2:07 PM

katiejane on May 6, 2011 at 2:07 PM

She quit to be a celebrity.

That is the spin that they think works for them.

Goes hand in hand with:

You Palinistas are suckers she is playing for money.

Problem is, the day she announces a run for President, all that goes out the window in a nanosecond.

Brian1972 on May 6, 2011 at 2:24 PM

Brian1972 on May 6, 2011 at 2:24 PM

The quitter meme is like the race card. It gets played early and often due to lack of a legitimate counterpoint.

As does the “she’s doing it for money” angle. How many people do you know who voluntarily give up the use of private jets and personal chefs just to metamorphosize into gold diggers overnight? Doesn’t wash.

Kataklysmic on May 6, 2011 at 2:31 PM

The quitter meme is like the race card. It gets played early and often due to lack of a legitimate counterpoint.

Kataklysmic on May 6, 2011 at 2:31 PM

I wanna make sure I’m absolutely clear on this. The meme that grates on me the most is not “Sarah Palin is a quitter.” What really frosts my cupcakes is hearing “Sarah Palin can’t appeal to independents because she quit.” It’s the people that say “I like Sarah Palin, but because the independents won’t vote for her you’re a fool” that really get under my skin, and I’m defending myself far more than I’m defending Palin’s decision to quit.

gryphon202 on May 6, 2011 at 2:42 PM

gryphon202 on May 6, 2011 at 2:42 PM

I hear you brother. And Palin may very well not get the votes of many moderates who priorotize not being mocked above all else. But I have to hold out hope that there are more Americans that would rather have liberty, a job, and a way to fill up their gas tanks than who are willing to resign themselves to a McLife just to avoid be branded unhip and racist. And if my hope turns out to be unfounded, the clarity that the grand experiment is over is an odd gift in itself.

Kataklysmic on May 6, 2011 at 2:50 PM

As does the “she’s doing it for money” angle. How many people do you know who voluntarily give up the use of private jets and personal chefs just to metamorphosize into gold diggers overnight? Doesn’t wash.

Kataklysmic on May 6, 2011 at 2:31 PM

Especially when you take into account the previous time that she left a political post, the Oil and Gas Commission.

At that time, they were not wealthy at all. Todd did the North Slope thing, and the salmon fishing in the summer, and the snowmachine racing. Not a spectacular income.

She was term limited out as Mayor, and had ran for Lt.Gov and narrowly lost. That post on the Commission paid almost as much as the Gov salary, around $150-$175,000 a year.
She gave that up for principle, to do what’s right.

She says in her book that in politics, you can eat well or you can sleep well. She chose to sleep well.

That says a lot to me.

Brian1972 on May 6, 2011 at 2:51 PM

i think you’ll find a lot of dingleberries conservatives, like myself, will simply sit the election out if palin is the candidate. TheBlueSite on May 5, 2011 at 8:03 PM

Akzed on May 6, 2011 at 2:51 PM

The indies don’t care what names you call them. They will refuse to vote for a quitter and view you Palinista’s as radical and delusional.

See, you have two hopes when it comes to Sarah and the MSM.

1) The MSM will leave her alone.
2) The MSM will accurately report all the details surrounding her abdication of the governorship. I’m sure they will call you for the real story.

csdeven on May 6, 2011 at 12:48 PM

nothing to do with principle.

You do not speak for all independents so don’t just lump us all together. Palin is my candidate of choice. I am a Libertarian.

ReneePA on May 6, 2011 at 2:56 PM

You can tell a lot about someone by:

A. The friends they keep.
B. The people they fear.

Liberals fear Trump and Palin…

ROFLMAO!!!!!

Roy Rogers on May 6, 2011 at 3:04 PM

Q-Poll: Is Sarah Palin unelectable?

yes

snoopicus on May 6, 2011 at 3:20 PM

She says in her book that in politics, you can eat well or you can sleep well. She chose to sleep well.

That says a lot to me.

Brian1972 on May 6, 2011 at 2:51 PM

I think Sarah Palin always did what was right, at least ethically speaking. That is my opinion. It is pretty indisputable that she always did what she believed was right. How many Republicans can you say that about nowadays?

gryphon202 on May 6, 2011 at 3:23 PM

yes

snoopicus on May 6, 2011 at 3:20 PM

Gryph-poll: Is Snoopicus a blithering moron?

yes

gryphon202 on May 6, 2011 at 3:23 PM

She quit to be a celebrity.

That is the spin that they think works for them.

Goes hand in hand with:

You Palinistas are suckers she is playing for money.

Problem is, the day she announces a run for President, all that goes out the window in a nanosecond.

Brian1972 on May 6, 2011 at 2:24 PM

That is exactly how they will attack her and it will work. That’s the Palin problem, not that she is stupid or unqualified, but that opinions have been formed. Its simply not possible, the MSM has convinced too many people shes not it.

snoopicus on May 6, 2011 at 3:24 PM

Gryph-poll: Is Snoopicus a blithering moron?

yes

gryphon202 on May 6, 2011 at 3:23 PM

real clever

snoopicus on May 6, 2011 at 3:25 PM

I think Sarah Palin always did what was right, at least ethically speaking. That is my opinion. It is pretty indisputable that she always did what she believed was right. How many Republicans can you say that about nowadays?

gryphon202 on May 6, 2011 at 3:23 PM

Palin went after corrupt Democrats and Republicans in Alaska with equal fervor. Consider the people who think that’s a bad thing.

Roy Rogers on May 6, 2011 at 3:25 PM

d-Poll: Is Obama un-reelectable?

Survey says … yes.

darwin on May 6, 2011 at 3:26 PM

Gryph-poll: Is Snoopicus a blithering moron?

yes

gryphon202 on May 6, 2011 at 3:23 PM

BTW i have warmed up to Palin, i like that she fights, but I think the die is cast on this. Thats all

snoopicus on May 6, 2011 at 3:26 PM

the premise that we need to pander to “indies,” and I reject that out-of-hand.

gryphon202 on May 6, 2011 at 12:52 PM

I’m not pandering to indies. I’m pointing out to you that without them, NO CANDIDATE ever won election to the presidency.

csdeven on May 6, 2011 at 3:26 PM

BTW i have warmed up to Palin, i like that she fights, but I think the die is cast on this. Thats all

snoopicus on May 6, 2011 at 3:26 PM

My statement stands. “Alla jacta est” never applies to an election until the one poll that counts.

gryphon202 on May 6, 2011 at 3:27 PM

That is exactly how they will attack her and it will work. That’s the Palin problem, not that she is stupid or unqualified, but that opinions have been formed. Its simply not possible, the MSM has convinced too many people shes not it.

snoopicus on May 6, 2011 at 3:24 PM

So the MSM is fine with a Republican winning, just not Palin? Care to take a shot at their rationale?

Kataklysmic on May 6, 2011 at 3:28 PM

I’m not pandering to indies. I’m pointing out to you that without them, NO CANDIDATE ever won election to the presidency.

csdeven on May 6, 2011 at 3:26 PM

Oh, I see. You’re not pandering to the indies. You’re just pandering to the indies. Thanks for clearing that up, Champ.

gryphon202 on May 6, 2011 at 3:28 PM

(Full disclosure: I am a Mormon who supported Mitt in 2008 when there were no good alternatives)

Kataklysmic on May 6, 2011 at 12:53 PM

I supported him too. And you’re right about the PH thing. But it wasn’t outright racism and he wasn’t personally involved. The faith is what will do him in. That f**king bigot Huckabigot will stir up the southern vote to reject Mitt just like he did last time with his “Christian Candidate” BS.

csdeven on May 6, 2011 at 3:30 PM

To repeat this to you for about the hundredth time……abdication of ones job IS a matter of principle. A HUGE one for most Americans.

csdeven on May 6, 2011 at 12:50 PM

So she won’t get anywhere at all. She won’t win a single primary if she runs. Most Americans would no doubt include most GOP primary voters, which means that Palin’s fan base is tiny. Which means that the vanilla candidate of your choice could win handily without them.

Yet you have to keep evangelizing with the same talking point over and over and over and over and over…

pseudoforce on May 6, 2011 at 3:32 PM

csdeven on May 6, 2011 at 3:30 PM

Agree on all counts, but with respect, you just made my original point for me.

Kataklysmic on May 6, 2011 at 3:32 PM

I won’t shed a single tear for you

gryphon202 on May 6, 2011 at 12:54 PM

The rest of the country will shed tears for our kids for the next 20 years when Palin gets defeated in a landslide and Obama puts progressives on the court.

Yeah, go ahead, cut off your nose to spite your face. Idiot.

csdeven on May 6, 2011 at 3:33 PM

I view that as rather insulting to the “indies,” but whatever.

gryphon202 on May 6, 2011 at 12:56 PM

They voted for Obama you moron.

csdeven on May 6, 2011 at 3:34 PM

Yeah, go ahead, cut off your nose to spite your face. Idiot.

csdeven on May 6, 2011 at 3:33 PM

Cutting off my nose to spite my face would be accepting a progressive Republican, moron. The field is full of ‘em this cycle, as usual, and those are the panderers who are going to win the squishy independent vote. The independents that actually give a sh!t about our republic’s future will vote for Palin in the primaries.

gryphon202 on May 6, 2011 at 3:34 PM

They voted for Obama you moron.

csdeven on May 6, 2011 at 3:34 PM

And you didn’t. That’s a relief. If Sarah Palin well-and-truly can not convince those squishy Obama voters that she’s a better alternative than any other Republican running, I STILL won’t be in the “anyone but Obama” crowd.

gryphon202 on May 6, 2011 at 3:35 PM

I’m glad you feel you have your finger on the pulse of “indies” and America. Palin’s political victims also felt they had their finger on the pulse of the voter.

darwin on May 6, 2011 at 1:02 PM

Yeah, Alaska is representative of a national electorate. When are you Palinista’s going to quit dragging out that tired meme?

csdeven on May 6, 2011 at 3:36 PM

The rest of the country will shed tears for our kids for the next 20 years when Palin gets defeated in a landslide and Obama puts progressives on the court.

Yeah, go ahead, cut off your nose to spite your face. Idiot.

csdeven on May 6, 2011 at 3:33 PM

Wait a second. How does Palin even get out of the primaries, since she’s so despised?

pseudoforce on May 6, 2011 at 3:36 PM

Yeah, Alaska is representative of a national electorate. When are you Palinista’s going to quit dragging out that tired meme?

csdeven on May 6, 2011 at 3:36 PM

And when are you detractors going to quit dragging out the tired meme that polls mean she can’t win?

gryphon202 on May 6, 2011 at 3:36 PM

Wait a second. How does Palin even get out of the primaries, since she’s so despised?

pseudoforce on May 6, 2011 at 3:36 PM

There’s the rub. Of those 58% of registered Republicans who insist they won’t vote for her, I”m sure a small percentage of those voters will actually bother voting in the primaries at all. There are dynamics at work here that no poll can quantify, no matter how scientific.

gryphon202 on May 6, 2011 at 3:38 PM

The rest of the country will shed tears for our kids for the next 20 years when Palin gets defeated in a landslide and Obama puts progressives on the court.

csdeven on May 6, 2011 at 3:33 PM

What are you going to say when Romney or Pawlenty lose in a landslide?

pseudoforce on May 6, 2011 at 3:39 PM

What are you going to say when Romney or Pawlenty lose in a landslide?

pseudoforce on May 6, 2011 at 3:39 PM

I’m sure it will be something along the lines of “Whoops.”

gryphon202 on May 6, 2011 at 3:41 PM

Do you actually think that I care what those wishy washy independents think? I am sooo sick of the politicians cow towing to them and giving them the power they don’t deserve.

Stick to your beliefs…they won’t fail you.

tencole on May 6, 2011 at 1:06 PM

I can tell you don’t care. None of Palinista’s care. Kow tow? You don’t understand the meaning of the word. You basically have three groups of people to sway toward your candidate. Dems, reps, and indies. Dems will vote Obama. reps will vote GOP. What is left is the indies. Without them, no candidate will ever become president. Palin is a quitter and cannot seriously expect the indies to support her. What we need is a real conservative that isn’t ma quitter that the indies will support.

So you keep sticking your head in the sand and ignore the indies and Palin will lose and we’ll have 20 years of a progressive SCOTUS.

csdeven on May 6, 2011 at 3:41 PM

What are you going to say when Romney or Pawlenty lose in a landslide?

pseudoforce on May 6, 2011 at 3:39 PM

That they only didn’t win because those bitter ‘Nistas stayed home.

Kataklysmic on May 6, 2011 at 3:42 PM

I caught a snippet of Beck’s show at lunch today. He’s right when he said that if the GOP offers up the same ol’ same ol’, they’ll lose. Who’re you going to blame then, csdeven? The “purist” socons who wouldn’t vote for that eminently electable, “safe” candidate?

pseudoforce on May 6, 2011 at 3:42 PM

Interesting – Indies voted for an unqualified Obama who bailed on his Senate job based on personal ambition but will refuse to vote for Palin who quit her Governship rather than be personally bankrupted?

The MSM gave Obama a pass. They have and will crucify Palin.

Wise up.

csdeven on May 6, 2011 at 3:43 PM

So you keep sticking your head in the sand and ignore the indies and Palin will lose and we’ll have 20 years of a progressive SCOTUS.

csdeven on May 6, 2011 at 3:41 PM

Or we can elect a progressive Republican and get 20 years of a slightly less, but still progressive SCOTUS.

gryphon202 on May 6, 2011 at 3:43 PM

Without them, no candidate will ever become president.

csdeven on May 6, 2011 at 3:41 PM

And McCain had them in his back pocket. Or so we were told.

pseudoforce on May 6, 2011 at 3:43 PM

The MSM gave Obama a pass. They have and will crucify Palin.

Wise up.

csdeven on May 6, 2011 at 3:43 PM

Oh, but they won’t crucify any other Republican candidates…

*Maurice Clemmons

*Romneycare

*Glo-bull Warming Bandwagoning

*cough cough*

You give the media way too much power.

gryphon202 on May 6, 2011 at 3:44 PM

The MSM gave Obama a pass. They have and will crucify Palin.

Wise up.

csdeven on May 6, 2011 at 3:43 PM

They’ll crucify any candidate who poses a threat to Obama. That’s one reason they’re not really going after Romney or Pawlenty at this point. Wise up.

pseudoforce on May 6, 2011 at 3:44 PM

Kataklysmic on May 6, 2011 at 1:14 PM

Bwahahahahaha!!!!! Riiiiiight! And then the moderator will not allow Obama to call her on her lies and the world will be all skittles, unicorns, and rainbows for Palin!

LOL!!!!!

csdeven on May 6, 2011 at 3:45 PM

So did McCain lose the independent vote? If so, why were so many of us convinced that he was the most electable?

gryphon202 on May 6, 2011 at 3:45 PM

Bwahahahahaha!!!!! Riiiiiight! And then the moderator will not allow Obama to call her on her lies and the world will be all skittles, unicorns, and rainbows for Palin!

LOL!!!!!

csdeven on May 6, 2011 at 3:45 PM

It’d be easier than Romney or Pawlenty having to explain their flip-flops. I wonder how that’s going to look?

pseudoforce on May 6, 2011 at 3:47 PM

And then the moderator will not allow Obama to call her on her lies

csdeven on May 6, 2011 at 3:45 PM

Which lies?

Kataklysmic on May 6, 2011 at 3:47 PM

Oh, I see.

gryphon202 on May 6, 2011 at 3:28 PM

No you don’t see. You have your head so far in the sand all you hear when someone points out how ineffective Palin is with indies is “pander, pander, pander..”. I’ll tell you this, unless Palin can get those indies to vote for her, she will lose. So far her message isn’t swaying them. What exactly do you think she can say differently to sway them?

csdeven on May 6, 2011 at 3:48 PM

Which lies?

Kataklysmic on May 6, 2011 at 3:47 PM

What he will, and the MSM will call, lies.

csdeven on May 6, 2011 at 3:49 PM

I’ll tell you this, unless Palin can get those indies to vote for her, she will lose. So far her message isn’t swaying them. What exactly do you think she can say differently to sway them?

csdeven on May 6, 2011 at 3:48 PM

Well for one,, I think putting to rest speculation that she might not run would really help. But how is it that John McCain lost after we were told so loudly and often that he was the most electable? I’d really like to know your thoughts on what we should have done differently in 2008.

gryphon202 on May 6, 2011 at 3:50 PM

What he will, and the MSM will call, lies.

csdeven on May 6, 2011 at 3:49 PM

There are American’s currently brainwashed about Palin who can still discern the truth from lies and obfuscation when both are placed in front of them at the same time.

You still haven’t explainted to me why the MSM would find it acceptable for Obama to suffer defeat at the hands of another Republican, just not Palin.

Kataklysmic on May 6, 2011 at 3:51 PM

Yet you have to keep evangelizing with the same talking point over and over and over and over and over…

pseudoforce on May 6, 2011 at 3:32 PM

To counter yours. Why else?

csdeven on May 6, 2011 at 3:51 PM

I’ll tell you this, unless Palin can get those indies to vote for her, she will lose.

csdeven on May 6, 2011 at 3:48 PM

So, what’s your problem? Like I said, she’s so hated she won’t win a single primary. I would think you’d love to see her fall flat on her face in that regard.

pseudoforce on May 6, 2011 at 3:52 PM

The independents that actually give a sh!t about our republic’s future will vote for Palin in the primaries.

gryphon202 on May 6, 2011 at 3:34 PM

The independents will vote for that candidate that best represents their views. Quitting isn’t one of them.

csdeven on May 6, 2011 at 3:53 PM

I’ll tell you this, unless Palin can get those indies to vote for her, she will lose. So far her message isn’t swaying them. What exactly do you think she can say differently to sway them?

csdeven on May 6, 2011 at 3:48 PM

So far.

There has so far been no campaign from Palin.

A good showing in the Gop primaries will show enough indies that she isn’t what the press says she is.

Time for a second look.

If she got the nomination, it is a whole new ballgame at that point.

Obama is bleeding indies.

Indies agree with Palin on the issues, they just haven’t realized how much yet.

Things will move as the campaign takes place.

Why can you not see this?

You act as if everything is chiseled in marble never to change. That isn’t how it works.

You are going to vote for Palin 3 times.

Primary, general, and re-election in 2016.

That is all.

Brian1972 on May 6, 2011 at 3:54 PM

To counter yours. Why else?

csdeven on May 6, 2011 at 3:51 PM

What talking point is that? All I’m saying is that if she runs and doesn’t convince enough voters to vote for her, she’ll lose.

Your problem is that you’re insecure about these electable, serious vanilla candidates. You know they’d be blown away either by Palin in the primaries, or by Obama in the general.

pseudoforce on May 6, 2011 at 3:54 PM

To counter yours. Why else?

csdeven on May 6, 2011 at 3:51 PM

The only way to counter “I’m voting based on my principles” is to tell someone “you’re a fool to stick to your principles.” If you think that’s going to win the Palinistas over to your way of thinking, then I’m apparently not the only one with my head in the sand.

gryphon202 on May 6, 2011 at 3:54 PM

So, what’s your problem? Like I said, she’s so hated she won’t win a single primary. I would think you’d love to see her fall flat on her face in that regard.

pseudoforce on May 6, 2011 at 3:52 PM

Exactly. I’ve never come across so many people so eager to pass up a golden “I told you so” opportunity.

Kataklysmic on May 6, 2011 at 3:54 PM

The independents will vote for that candidate that best represents their views. Quitting isn’t one of them.

csdeven on May 6, 2011 at 3:53 PM

So, she won’t even get out of the primaries. Right?

pseudoforce on May 6, 2011 at 3:55 PM

The independents will vote for that candidate that best represents their views. Quitting isn’t one of them.

csdeven on May 6, 2011 at 3:53 PM

But apparently McCain Feingold wasn’t in 2008, nor was wholesale amnesty, and we were told over and over that John McCain was the most “electable.” How did he lose?

gryphon202 on May 6, 2011 at 3:55 PM

I’m still waiting to hear how McCain lost to Obama so decisively considering how tight the polling was in the weeks and days leading up to the 2008 elections.

*crickets*

gryphon202 on May 6, 2011 at 3:56 PM

By the way,

Sarah’s supporters often claim that she energizes the GOP base in a way that her potential rivals do not. The Q-Poll (and most polls about hypothetical 2012 fields) suggest Palinistas are overstating their case. The number of voters — both in general and among Republicans — who say they are enthusiastic about voting for Palin are not significantly higher than those for Romney or Mike Huckabee.

I don’t buy that. A couple of guys who couldn’t even come close against a weak candidate like McCain in 2008 won’t be able to do much in 2012, either.

pseudoforce on May 6, 2011 at 3:56 PM

Or we can elect a progressive Republican and get 20 years of a slightly less, but still progressive SCOTUS.

gryphon202 on May 6, 2011 at 3:43 PM

Not likely. A RINO will nominate to keep the court balanced. 4 libs, 4 reps, and one swing. Until we can get a candidate that doesn’t quit their job, we’ll have to hold on to the little we have.

csdeven on May 6, 2011 at 3:58 PM

The independents will vote for that candidate that best represents their views. Quitting isn’t one of them.

csdeven on May 6, 2011 at 3:53 PM

If the quitter thing is so damn deadly, then she has no chance to get the nomination anyway and you are hyperventilating about nothing.

I happen to think that the answer to the question “what are you going to do” will play a bigger part in this.

Look at the response Cain has gotten, and he has never won an election in his life.

People are looking for something different, and the traditional political path is now actually a liability rather than an asset.

Brian1972 on May 6, 2011 at 3:58 PM

I’m not pandering to indies. I’m pointing out to you that without them, NO CANDIDATE ever won election to the presidency.

csdeven on May 6, 2011 at 3:26 PM

Well then, why don’t just the indies vote….to you, it sounds like it’s only their vote that counts.

tencole on May 6, 2011 at 3:58 PM

Not likely. A RINO…

csdeven on May 6, 2011 at 3:58 PM

Won’t even win. Talking about their SC picks is ridiculous.

pseudoforce on May 6, 2011 at 3:59 PM

I would think you’d love to see her fall flat on her face in that regard.

pseudoforce on May 6, 2011 at 3:52 PM

If you’re so sure she’ll win, why come in her trumpeting it all day long?

csdeven on May 6, 2011 at 3:59 PM

If the quitter thing is so damn deadly, then she has no chance to get the nomination anyway and you are hyperventilating about nothing.

Brian1972 on May 6, 2011 at 3:58 PM

It’s a mystery, isn’t it?

pseudoforce on May 6, 2011 at 4:01 PM

If you’re so sure she’ll win, why come in her trumpeting it all day long?

csdeven on May 6, 2011 at 3:59 PM

I’m not trumpeting anything. You are.

pseudoforce on May 6, 2011 at 4:01 PM

Brian1972 on May 6, 2011 at 3:54 PM

So she’s holding back? She already ran a VP campaign and lost. All she can do is repeat what she said originally or change it. What she did, did not work. So what is next?

csdeven on May 6, 2011 at 4:01 PM

If you’re so sure she’ll win, why come in her trumpeting it all day long?

csdeven on May 6, 2011 at 3:59 PM

The inverse could be asked of you, since you do just as much if not more trumpeting on one single talking point for the last 72 hours straight.

Quitters have no chance in America ever, so why do you waste you time on this quitting loser of a quitter?

Brian1972 on May 6, 2011 at 4:02 PM

Yeah, Alaska is representative of a national electorate. When are you Palinista’s going to quit dragging out that tired meme?

csdeven on May 6, 2011 at 3:36 PM

Just because you don’t like it doesn’t make it any less true.

Why are you so against Palin running in the primary?

darwin on May 6, 2011 at 4:02 PM

The independents will vote for that candidate that best represents their views. Quitting isn’t one of them.

csdeven on May 6, 2011 at 3:53 PM

Then how do explain Obama?

He was only Senator from 2005-2008…..with at least half that time campaigning.
He may not have quit officially but he quit being Senator none the less….what’s the difference?

tencole on May 6, 2011 at 4:03 PM

So she’s holding back? She already ran a VP campaign…

csdeven on May 6, 2011 at 4:01 PM

She did?

pseudoforce on May 6, 2011 at 4:03 PM

But apparently McCain Feingold wasn’t in 2008, nor was wholesale amnesty, and we were told over and over that John McCain was the most “electable.” How did he lose?

gryphon202 on May 6, 2011 at 3:55 PM

He was a milk toast and the economy crashed. The economy which he himself said he knew little about. McCain wanted to be the most gracious loser of all time. He succeeded.

csdeven on May 6, 2011 at 4:03 PM

If you’re so sure she’ll win, why come in her trumpeting it all day long?

csdeven on May 6, 2011 at 3:59 PM

If you’re so sure she can’t why come in here trumpeting it all day long?

darwin on May 6, 2011 at 4:03 PM

So she’s holding back? She already ran a VP campaign and lost. All she can do is repeat what she said originally or change it. What she did, did not work. So what is next?

csdeven on May 6, 2011 at 4:01 PM

That is stupid.

McCain’s people were controlling the messaging in that campaign, and you know it.

What do you think Going Rogue meant?

Brian1972 on May 6, 2011 at 4:04 PM

Then how do explain Obama?

He was only Senator from 2005-2008…..with at least half that time campaigning.
He may not have quit officially but he quit being Senator none the less….what’s the difference?

tencole on May 6, 2011 at 4:03 PM

That’s not the right approach. It’s not the same thing. A better angle is to ask why these precious independents voted for a moonbat like Obama to begin with, since they’re so discerning. The Dems didn’t seem to be too much bothered with picking a candidate tailored to meet the tastes of independents. That’s for the bright guys in the GOP to do…and lose.

pseudoforce on May 6, 2011 at 4:05 PM

The independents will vote for that candidate that best represents their views. Quitting isn’t one of them.

csdeven on May 6, 2011 at 3:53 PM

Talk about tired memes.

Full of hot air and rehashed memes.

darwin on May 6, 2011 at 4:05 PM

what’s the difference?

tencole on May 6, 2011 at 4:03 PM

LOL. Do I really have to tell you the difference between abdicating ones elected office to stay at home and running for office? Wasn’t McCain still a Senator and Palin still the Governor? By your standard, Sarah still wanted to be a quitter.

csdeven on May 6, 2011 at 4:06 PM

He was a milk toast…

csdeven on May 6, 2011 at 4:03 PM

But yet you’re urging the nomination of yet another one. What was that definition of “insanity” again?

pseudoforce on May 6, 2011 at 4:06 PM

What do you think Going Rogue meant?

Brian1972 on May 6, 2011 at 4:04 PM

Going Rogue? By definition she did what she wanted. And she has written what, 2 books? What else can she say that will mitigate abdicating her office as governor?

csdeven on May 6, 2011 at 4:08 PM

What else can she say that will mitigate abdicating her office as governor?

csdeven on May 6, 2011 at 4:08 PM

Nothing. So she’s got absolutely no chance. What are you worried about?

pseudoforce on May 6, 2011 at 4:09 PM

If you’re so sure she’ll win, why come in her trumpeting it all day long?

csdeven on May 6, 2011 at 3:59 PM

I’ll tell ya why, it’s because we…at least I….feel the need to try to negate all the lies about her.
Because of ignorant lazy people like you that do not want to learn the facts, these “lies” tend to spread like wildfire.

tencole on May 6, 2011 at 4:09 PM

If you’re so sure she can’t why come in here trumpeting it all day long?

darwin on May 6, 2011 at 4:03 PM

Countering the Palinista argument. It’s called back and forth. Discussion. Point counter-point. Ya know, the purpose of a blog? If it bothers you so much, go read palin’s PAC site.

csdeven on May 6, 2011 at 4:10 PM

Do I really have to tell you the difference between abdicating ones elected office to stay at home and running for office? Wasn’t McCain still a Senator and Palin still the Governor? By your standard, Sarah still wanted to be a quitter.

csdeven on May 6, 2011 at 4:06 PM

So what should she have done instead?

darwin on May 6, 2011 at 4:10 PM

He was a milk toast and the economy crashed. The economy which he himself said he knew little about. McCain wanted to be the most gracious loser of all time. He succeeded.

csdeven on May 6, 2011 at 4:03 PM

Just a reminder: the two week period between Palin’s convention speech and the financial collapse of 9/15 was the only time McCain led in the general. If he hadn’t made previous statements about not understanding the economy he may have won, but only because of Palin. If he hadn’t picked her as a running mate, he never would have led in a single poll, let alone won the election.

Kataklysmic on May 6, 2011 at 4:11 PM

If he hadn’t made previous statements about not understanding the economy he may have won, but only because of Palin. If he hadn’t picked her as a running mate, he never would have led in a single poll, let alone won the election.

Kataklysmic on May 6, 2011 at 4:11 PM

If McCain had come out against TARP and bailouts, I think he might’ve won.

pseudoforce on May 6, 2011 at 4:12 PM

Going Rogue? By definition she did what she wanted. And she has written what, 2 books? What else can she say that will mitigate abdicating her office as governor?

csdeven on May 6, 2011 at 4:08 PM

As far as you are concerned, nothing.

Fortunately, you are not America.

She will make her case, and people will listen to what she has to say. It will matter, regardless of your myopic focus on one event in a 20 year career in public service.

She is a dynamic speaker, a magnetic personality who also just happens to have all the right positions on the issues that matter.

Rather than intelligent analysis, you rely lazily on the same thing to say over and over and over and over and over and over… and over again.

Brian1972 on May 6, 2011 at 4:13 PM

Countering the Palinista argument. It’s called back and forth. Discussion. Point counter-point. Ya know, the purpose of a blog? If it bothers you so much, go read palin’s PAC site.

csdeven on May 6, 2011 at 4:10 PM

You’re not discussing. You come here with one argument: Indies don’t like abdicators!!11!!1!!1!1!

Perhaps, since you’re so in tune with “indies” … some GOP hack will read this and offer you a job.

darwin on May 6, 2011 at 4:13 PM

The independents will vote for that candidate that best represents their views. Quitting isn’t one of them.

csdeven on May 6, 2011 at 3:53 PM

And why shouldn’t Conservatives do the same? Vote for the candidate who best represents their views?

katiejane on May 6, 2011 at 4:14 PM

pseudoforce on May 6, 2011 at 4:09 PM

Worried? The idea is to find some rational argument that justifies your explanations. So I question each point made and give the counter point. The latest answer to the quitter question is…..why am I worried about it. Yet another attempt to silence opposition.

csdeven on May 6, 2011 at 4:15 PM

If McCain had come out against TARP and bailouts, I think he might’ve won.

pseudoforce on May 6, 2011 at 4:12 PM

But I hasten to add, then he wouldn’t have been McCain.

pseudoforce on May 6, 2011 at 4:15 PM

So what should she have done instead?

darwin on May 6, 2011 at 4:10 PM

What she is doing. Namely not running for another elected office.

csdeven on May 6, 2011 at 4:16 PM

Comment pages: 1 3 4 5 6