Wisconsin Supreme Court Recount – Day 5

posted at 11:20 am on May 2, 2011 by Steve Eggleston

The only news yesterday was the count itself. Shortly before the Government Accountability Board released updated numbers, the Associated Press (via WISC-TV) reported on the fact that, with just under 1/3rd of the 13 days allowed by state law to complete the recount, 1/3rd of the reporting units had results reported. The 4:15 pm release from the GAB upped that to 1,847 of 3,602 reporting units completed and reviewed, and with 677,830 votes as-recounted, David Prosser extended his pre-recount lead over JoAnne Kloppenburg by 21 to an unofficial 7,337 votes.

I do have to note the current (at least as of 4:15 pm yesterday) version of GAB’s spreadsheet has what appears to be an error in the bottom-line totals; they reported 693,592 votes as recounted, with similar “errors” in each individual vote total. As every number on their spreadsheet is hand-entered, that may well include numbers from reporting units that were not individually reported on said spreadsheet.

Again, both the GAB and I stress that those results are both unofficial and do not reflect all the reporting units that have completed recounts. For example, media reports had Eau Claire County as having completed its recount on Friday afternoon, yet the results released by the GAB yesterday afternoon did not have all of the results from Eau Claire County entered.

With that said, it is the “easy” half that is done. The canvassing board in, say, Milwaukee County can’t farm out some of their work to the canvassing board in, say, Green Lake County, even though the latter board already finished their work. Indeed, in terms of ballots recounted, Milwaukee and Waukesha Counties, out of those counties that have reported any results, are the only two which are significantly in danger of not completing the recount by next week Monday.

Even with just the partial results, some statistical analysis on the change of votes is possible. In just the reporting units that have been recounted and reported by the GAB:

  • David Prosser saw an increase of 187 votes, from the pre-recount canvassed total of 358,268 votes to a recounted 358,455 votes. That is a 0.0522% gain.
  • JoAnne Kloppenburg saw an increase of 166 votes, from the pre-recount canvassed total of 318,527 votes to a recounted 318,693 votes. That is a 0.0521% gain.

Just as a reminder, Prosser’s pre-recount lead over Kloppenburg was 0.4881 percentage points.

I blog over at No Runny Eggs, and am on Twitter @steveegg

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Well I hope Ms. Kloppenburg is very happy.

Cindy Munford on May 2, 2011 at 11:25 AM

I guess it’s a way to create jobs–recounting elections that aren’t all that close.

RBMN on May 2, 2011 at 11:30 AM

Thank you for continuing to follow this for us.

Sunlight disenfects corruption…

Fallon on May 2, 2011 at 11:30 AM

It appears that when it is all done that nothing will have changed except Wisconsin being a million dollars or so poorer. The left is really good with dumping money down a sink hole.

chemman on May 2, 2011 at 11:30 AM

I think every post about this recount needs have the videos of the wicked witch declaring victory with a 200 vote lead and the 13 second pause after being asked if she still thinks she won. :D

Rich on May 2, 2011 at 11:33 AM

Well I hope Ms. Kloppenburg is very happy.

Cindy Munford on May 2, 2011 at 11:25 AM
I don’t think she ever is.

As for crr6, there seems to be a shipment of piranahs with her name on it.

Steve Eggleston on May 2, 2011 at 11:34 AM

I think every post about this recount needs have the videos of the wicked witch declaring victory with a 200 vote lead and the 13 second pause after being asked if she still thinks she won. :D

Rich on May 2, 2011 at 11:33 AM

I couldn’t stand hearing those two episodes live.

Steve Eggleston on May 2, 2011 at 11:36 AM

Poor Kloppy.

(I just like saying ‘Kloppy’)

Lanceman on May 2, 2011 at 11:42 AM

Hey Kloopy…Thanks for wasting everybody’s time and money.

NeoKong on May 2, 2011 at 11:49 AM

Think Kloppy will get an invite for 1st-Pitch honors for the Brewers?

UkiddenMe on May 2, 2011 at 11:55 AM

NeoKong on May 2, 2011 at 11:49 AM

I am pretty sure those are requirements in the world of Democrats.

Cindy Munford on May 2, 2011 at 12:00 PM

I think every post about this recount needs have the videos of the wicked witch declaring victory with a 200 vote lead and the 13 second pause after being asked if she still thinks she won. :D

Rich on May 2, 2011 at 11:33 AM

I couldn’t stand hearing those two episodes live.

Steve Eggleston on May 2, 2011 at 11:36 AM

She’s a winner in any number of ways.

fossten on May 2, 2011 at 12:15 PM

I think every post about this recount needs have the videos of the wicked witch declaring victory with a 200 vote lead and the 13 second pause after being asked if she still thinks she won. :D

Rich on May 2, 2011 at 11:33 AM

I couldn’t stand hearing those two episodes live.

Steve Eggleston on May 2, 2011 at 11:36 AM

She’s a winner in any number of ways.

fossten on May 2, 2011 at 12:15 PM

She’s winning the future. :D

Pattosensei on May 2, 2011 at 12:27 PM

Just got off the phone with a friend who’s monitoring the Milwaukee County portion of the recount this morning. There is an issue with the poll lists in Brown Deer (the entire village barely carried by Kloppenburg despite two of the three reporting units carried by Prosser).

I hope to know more about that tonight.

Steve Eggleston on May 2, 2011 at 12:53 PM

And right after I posted that, there is a bit more info from Kyle Maichle – the poll list issue is in Wards 1-3 of Brown Deer (yes, suburban wards are often combined for reporting purposes in Wisconsin, so it is a single reporting unit).

That reporting unit was the one in Brown Deer carried by Kloppenburg 925-704.

Steve Eggleston on May 2, 2011 at 12:58 PM

Thanks, Steve! We appreciate your work on this!

parteagirl on May 2, 2011 at 1:04 PM

Hey Kloopy…Thanks for wasting everybody’s time and money.

NeoKong on May 2, 2011 at 11:49 AM

“Kloopy” — that’s an inspired typo!

Hang on, Kloopy –
Kloopy, hang on –

Kloopy ran for judge in a bad part of town
Those Prosser voters tried to put poor Kloopy down
Kloopy, you don’t care what your union thugs do
Cuz you know Kloopy, girl, just spend a million or two…

And so you’ve gotta

Hang on Kloopy, Kloopy hang on
Hang on Kloopy, Kloopy hang on

Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa…

Kloopy, let your stare down, girl,
Just stare down on me,
For 13 seconds, girl,
On national TV,

Come on, Kloopy (come on, come on)
Come on, Kloopy (come on, come on
So come on, Kloopy (come on, come on)
Come on, Kloopy (come on, come on)

Well, the votes are in, (come on, come on)
You know you didn’t win, (come on, come on)
So fake it, fake it, fake it, Kloopy (come on, come on)
Just fake it, fake it, fake it, Kloopy, yeah, yeah, yeah (come on, come on)

Mary in LA on May 2, 2011 at 1:10 PM

Mary in LA on May 2, 2011 at 1:10 PM

If someone could put that on Youtube, I’ll put it in a succeeding update.

Steve Eggleston on May 2, 2011 at 1:19 PM

Final update on the Brown Deer issue – resolved after the election-night tape and (hand) recounted numbers matched.

Steve Eggleston on May 2, 2011 at 1:31 PM

What will be fantastic is Prosser gaining 200+ votes in the recount, meaning he would have won even without the “found” votes.

This would be the ultimate slap in the face for Kloppy. Had she said no recount, the left could have used the “WE WERE ROBBED” meme. But if the recount shows she would have lost even without the “found” votes, oh many that would be so karmic.

angryed on May 2, 2011 at 1:49 PM

Thanks Steve, great updates.

wi farmgirl on May 2, 2011 at 2:14 PM

I don’t know, man. There’s a lot of cars in Milwaukee. That’s a lot of cars’ trunks to find votes in.

Hopeful, but reserved at this point.

Pablo Snooze on May 2, 2011 at 2:22 PM

Even with just the partial results, some statistical analysis on the change of votes is possible. In just the reporting units that have been recounted and reported by the GAB:
David Prosser saw an increase of 187 votes, from the pre-recount canvassed total of 358,268 votes to a recounted 358,455 votes. That is a 0.0522% gain.
JoAnne Kloppenburg saw an increase of 166 votes, from the pre-recount canvassed total of 318,527 votes to a recounted 318,693 votes. That is a 0.0521% gain.
Just as a reminder, Prosser’s pre-recount lead over Kloppenburg was 0.4881 percentage points.

In the recounted areas, both candidates increased their vote totals by the same (very small) proportion, meaning that (so far) errors and oversights were essentially random, favoring neither candidate (to be expected).

Of course, the already-recounted areas favor Prosser by 39,762 votes, while (pre-recount) he won the entire state by “only” 7,316 votes, so that the areas remaining to be recounted would probably favor Kloppenburg by about 32,000 votes, and she would be expected to close the margin slightly.

Using Eggleston’s figures, if Prosser’s pre-recount margin of 7,316 votes represented 0.4881% of total votes cast, that would represent a total of 1,498,873 votes cast, of which 358,268 + 318,527 = 676,795 votes are already recounted. This leaves about 822,078 pre-recount votes to be recounted, and Prosser’s current margin of 7,337 votes represents 0.8925% of the votes remaining to be recounted.

For Kloppy to catch Prosser with the remaining non-recounted votes, she would need a NET gain of 17 times the proportion she has gained on previously recounted votes, without any “random” errors favoring Prosser. Unless there’s something VERY FISHY going on in Milwaukee or Madtown, Prosser’s lead should hold. But Republicans need to keep a watchful eye on any unvoted blank ballots (if any exist) and have them shredded, since the “elves” have had 4 weeks to vote them for Kloppy since the election.

Steve Z on May 2, 2011 at 2:35 PM

If someone could put that on Youtube, I’ll put it in a succeeding update.

Steve Eggleston on May 2, 2011 at 1:19 PM

Wow! Thanks for the compliment! I’ll see what I can do…

Mary in LA on May 2, 2011 at 3:29 PM

Steve Z on May 2, 2011 at 2:35 PM

There are a few of those unvoted-for-SC blank ballots out there. One of the things the GAB has tried to do is get the counties to report the number of ballots that were in the ballot box.

With that said, I stopped in at the Milwaukee County recount site today, and most, if not all, of the tabulation tables had representatives from both campaigns there, so there is an eye being kept on that. Further, no items that can mark in colors that were used in the polling place (i.e. pens/markers/pencils that mark in either blue or black) are allowed in the area where the ballots are.

Steve Eggleston on May 2, 2011 at 6:32 PM

Prosser 421,801 +212
Kloppy 384,255 +360

In the town of Larrabee in Wards 1 & 2 Kloppy gained 68 to Prossers 1.

Kloppy basically doubled her total votes for that county from 78 to 138. Must of found a trunk full of Kloppy votes.

By the way, Prosser had 252, gained 1.

WoosterOh on May 2, 2011 at 8:04 PM

Of course I messed up a few things in my post.

Kloppy basically doubled her total votes for that county town from 78 70 to 138. Must of found a trunk full of Kloppy votes.

By the way, Prosser had 252, gained 1.

WoosterOh on May 2, 2011 at 8:06 PM

Waupaca County officials have discovered two errors in the original canvass of the Supreme Court election. Here is Waupaca County Clerk Mary Robbins’ explanation to G.A.B. staff:

Town of Larrabee – discrepancy in count. I have attached our recount notes in regards to the Town of Larrabee. They use both the Edge machine and the Optech Eagle. The Town of Larrabee original tally sheet from the April 5, 2011 election showed a 0 vote count on the Eagle on their tally sheet. (minutes attached) Board of Canvass did not think they could open the ballot bag to count at their April 7th Board of Canvass, we should have done that. The clerk was called (Arlene Kratzke) and she said she just forgot to transfer the numbers onto the sheet. The Board of Canvass should have caught this mistake the tape was attached and I apologize, we must have just read the sheet and didn’t check the tapes, we normally always check the tapes. The call in sheet, also, only shows 70 for Kloppenburg, the tape shows 167, the actual hand count shows 168 for Kloppenburg.

WoosterOh on May 2, 2011 at 8:48 PM

Thank you for updating us on the progress of the recount.

Corky Boyd on May 2, 2011 at 9:04 PM