Hot Air survey results: Electoral battleground edition

posted at 10:45 am on April 30, 2011 by Patrick Ishmael

States had to be rated a 5 or better to be put in the Republican column. In cases where a state was rated less than a 5, Advantage Obama.

A reminder, the battleground states were: New Hampshire, Indiana, Missouri, Wisconsin, Virginia, Nevada, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Colorado, Michigan, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, and Iowa. The remainder were either likely or safely in the hands of one party or another, and were divided accordingly; if you think I erred in thinking a state wasn’t competitive, please say so.

Over 2000 Hot Air readers cast ballots. The table of overall scores follows:

(“In State Avg” is how residents of the state rated their own state.)

Generally speaking, state residents ranked the GOP’s chances in their state higher than their non-state counterparts. There were two exceptions: Pennsylvania and Iowa, both of whom were more pessimistic about the GOP’s chances than non-Pennsylvanians and Iowans.

I’ve color-coded three maps to represent different aspects of the data.

The first is the electoral map of voters who rated their own state (the “In State Avg”). If residents of a state know the political climate of their battleground state the best, then Hot Air readers think the Republican will defeat Barack Obama in the electoral college, 286-252. Republicans take New Hampshire, Indiana, Missouri, Wisconsin, Virginia, Nevada, Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina in this scenario, and lose Colorado, Michigan, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, and Iowa.

The second is the electoral map of voters who are non-residents of the rated state. So, for instance, the Pennsylvania rating here encompasses all votes cast, except those from Pennsylvanians. If dispassionate non-residents know best, then Hot Air readers believe the Republican will defeat Barack Obama in the electoral college, 272-266. Republicans gain Iowa, but lose New Hampshire, Wisconsin, and Nevada.

And finally, the last map is of the states where both residents and non-residents agree a state is likely going to the Republican. In this “agreement map,” the Republican loses to Barack Obama, 272-266. Here, Iowa has moved into Barack Obama’s column, as residents disagreed with non-residents by just enough to throw the votes to the President.

Below is a map I created that totals to the very least number of votes a Republican can take — 270 — and still win. The difference between this and the “agreement” map is New Hampshire flips to the Republican. It’s a modest map, and one I don’t think is altogether unlikely.

Any of these seem more likely than the others? Tell me in the comments, or on Twitter. The monthly candidate survey is posting tomorrow, so stay tuned.


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Comment pages: 1 2

It all looks very encouraging. Especially the fact that in state people are optimistic.

I gotta admit though, I don’t understand Iowa. Why is it leaning Democrat? Is it ethanol or what?

forest on April 30, 2011 at 10:58 AM

Florida is the biggie.

Lanceman on April 30, 2011 at 10:59 AM

Maps are confusing. If The Donald runs, he can tell us all that we don’t need no F*&%^ng maps!

Sugar Land on April 30, 2011 at 11:00 AM

I can see Wisconsin going ‘Pub, the unions have gone too far and the backlash could flip the state our way.

Tony737 on April 30, 2011 at 11:01 AM

Maps are confusing. If The Donald runs, he can tell us all that we don’t need no MOTHER-F*&%^ng maps!

Sugar Land on April 30, 2011 at 11:00 AM

FIFY…

OmahaConservative on April 30, 2011 at 11:02 AM

Tony737 on April 30, 2011 at 11:01 AM

We could gain PA too…

OmahaConservative on April 30, 2011 at 11:03 AM

Breaks my heart to see PA in blue.

If you go by county, it’s a lot more red.

Tony737 on April 30, 2011 at 11:05 AM

It appears I did a good job rating the states. I hope this r map holds or maybe get more states. We gotta give bho the boot in 2012. Great job Patrick! I look forward to the poll tomorrow.
L

letget on April 30, 2011 at 11:07 AM

We could gain PA too… – O.C.

Man that would make me … uh … need a cigarette! haha

Tony737 on April 30, 2011 at 11:08 AM

I see Wisconsin going red in 2012. The GOP “intensity” going into 2012 is much, much higher — my democrat friends don’t even try to defend Obama anymore; they just sigh, throw their hands up in the air, and say, “Yeah…he sucks” — and if they couldn’t get it done for Kloppy given all of the press attention to that race, no way they’ll get it done for Barry with gas prices at $5 a gallon and groceries breaking family budgets. I think Colorado and New Mexico are very likely to go red, too. The electoral map after 2012 is going to look just like it did after 2004 — a sea of red except mainly on the two coasts.

Rational Thought on April 30, 2011 at 11:09 AM

WAY too close for comfort, no matter what scenario you look at. By all rights, Bambi should be facing an electoral blowout. These maps depress the hell out of me.

Purple Fury on April 30, 2011 at 11:10 AM

Breaks my heart to see PA in blue.

If you go by county, it’s a lot more red.

Tony737 on April 30, 2011 at 11:05 AM

Philly. The New Black Panthers got the message from Holder. Mortars and SAWs just outside the voting arenas.

a capella on April 30, 2011 at 11:13 AM

Sigh. Washington state would be considered purple on the west side and blood red on the east if only for those IDIOTS living along the I-5 corridor in the Seattle/Tacoma/Olympia area. They always flip the state solid blue in their blind obedience to the Democraps. Bleah.

If this wasn’t such a beautiful place, I’d hate it.

theotherone on April 30, 2011 at 11:13 AM

I’ve been saying that I don’t care WHO gets nominated as long as it’s a REAL Conservative and they can beat Obama…..

…..but I have to amend that statement.

I don’t care WHO the Real Conservative is as long as they are FEARLESS enough to actually right the ship that’s going under!!! And I don’t mean $100 billion here and there. I mean someone with the guts……AND ABILITY…..to fight off the catterwalling that will happen once the cutting is proposed.

Who has demonstrated that so far……CONSISTENTLY?

PappyD61 on April 30, 2011 at 11:13 AM

The election will come down to Iowa it seems. So who is most likely to win Iowa and for that matter Wisconsin in the GOP field?

I wouldn’t rely on New Hampshire or New Mexico, though I would be more confident in New Mexico than Colorado. Nevada has moved more blue as well as Colorado because of immigration. Need to shutdown the borders!

A landslide victory would entail both Pennsylvania and Michigan going GOP. But for that to happen the bottom would have to fall completely out for Obama and the Democrats. That happens if a double dip recession happens and no one wants to see that.

So if I am the President, I am not to encouraged by the state of affairs in the electoral college. Its going to be real tight no matter who is the GOP nominee because this time Obama has a record. Traditional redstates will come home and the battleground states will be in blue territory.

milemarker2020 on April 30, 2011 at 11:16 AM

… Bambi should be facing an electoral blowout. – Fury

But the publik skools have been doing a great job of dumbing down our kids. By 2012, four more classes will have graduated and turned 18 since 2008 (many of which can’t even read their diploma) and will vote for Obama ’cause he’s ‘cool’.

Tony737 on April 30, 2011 at 11:17 AM

WAY too close for comfort, no matter what scenario you look at. By all rights, Bambi should be facing an electoral blowout. These maps depress the hell out of me.

Purple Fury on April 30, 2011 at 11:10 AM

Election day is many Obamatuerisms away. Trust not to fate, but in failure. Obama’s failure.

BobMbx on April 30, 2011 at 11:18 AM

We’re moving to Iowa in May so we’ll do our part in turning that state RED! Utah should stay safe without us…

karl9000 on April 30, 2011 at 11:24 AM

Depending on who we run, the Republican Party could win anywhere from 100-300 electoral votes.
Cain/Bachmann/Palin/Newt/Huckabee/Santorum- 100-200 EVs
Mitt/T-Paw- 180-240 EVs
Mitch- 200-300 EVs

Raisedbywolves on April 30, 2011 at 11:24 AM

Tony737 on April 30, 2011 at 11:05 AM

Nowhere is that concept more true than in California for Prop 8

There has got to be a way to get New Mexico and Nevada in play. They have suffered as much as any states under the current tyranny, and done so fairly quietly. It’s time they rose up.

Freelancer on April 30, 2011 at 11:24 AM

Patrick, a couple of questions.

Q1. Have any states enacted the electoral rule where the votes go to that candidate winning the national popular vote?

Q2. If yes to Q1, will any apply in 2012?

Dusty on April 30, 2011 at 11:24 AM

Maps two and three appear identical but the results swap for electoral votes. What am I missing?

PersonFromPorlock on April 30, 2011 at 11:25 AM

Philly. The New Black Panthers got the message from Holder. – aCap

Philly. Ugh, I know, that makes it even more heartbreaking. The birthplace of America, the home of the Broadstreet Bullies (Flyers, for you non-hockey fans) and my homecity. How can this be?

Say what you will about the left, but they sure know how to organize, take over and ruin a city.

Tony737 on April 30, 2011 at 11:26 AM

Maps two and three appear identical but the results swap for electoral votes. What am I missing?

PersonFromPorlock on April 30, 2011 at 11:25 AM

Iowa flips.

Patrick Ishmael on April 30, 2011 at 11:26 AM

I remember Mondale’s dead heat with Reagan…

I truly believe that all the smoke and mirrors with President Oblivion will have worn off and that people will be ready for change in 2012. We’ve had enough. Even my libtard friends have taken off their rose colored glasses. Being unemployed will do that for you.

Mojave Mark on April 30, 2011 at 11:26 AM

This is awesome.

Thanks for doing it, Patrick!

nickj116 on April 30, 2011 at 11:29 AM

Sugar Land on April 30, 2011 at 11:00 AM

Just imagine if sTRUMPet were the VP candidate. Hide the kiddies when he goes to debate Biden :-)

MJBrutus on April 30, 2011 at 11:30 AM

If you go by county, it’s a lot more red.

Tony737 on April 30, 2011 at 11:05 AM

County by county Bush won California in 2004, hence the state was mostly RED, but that didn’t mean jack.

Rovin on April 30, 2011 at 11:30 AM

Florida in 2008 was absolutely crazy. Or at least in the Jacksonville area. There were nothing but McCain/Palin signs with a few Ron Paul thrown in for good measure for months and months. Then, the night before election day, the place was plastered with Obama signs. Granted I didn’t go through the entire city, I am just talking major roads. It was just so odd.

Cindy Munford on April 30, 2011 at 11:30 AM

There is a high degree urgency to 2012. We can not afford to just let the clock run out on this guy… his ideology must be defeated — soundly — or it will metastasize.

Greek Fire on April 30, 2011 at 11:31 AM

Mitch- 200-300 EVs

Raisedbywolves on April 30, 2011 at 11:24 AM

Raisedbywolves?
Should be Raisedbyfools.

Lanceman on April 30, 2011 at 11:31 AM

And if Palin wins the nomination, the map is mostly blue. :-(

lol…just tweakin’ ya Palinistas! Don’t get your panties in a bunch!

This map is fun, but at this point, basically the equivalent of debating the 2014 elections. A real conservative has to emerge from somewhere, or Obama will get another 4 years to wreak havoc on our country!

csdeven on April 30, 2011 at 11:33 AM

I can’t beleive that this election would even be this close. If we had the people we had before. if we hadn’t let the Hatefilled Left take over our education system and plan the dumbing down of our citizens, if we hadn’t put God on the back burner as a nation, if we hadn’t become so gredy, so lazy, so materialistic… well Obama would never have been elected and this election would be a 49 state blowout. I wonder if we will ever see, the America we once had, again. I do think that pretty soon…like in 3rd world countires crime and violence are going to be rampant.

CCRWM on April 30, 2011 at 11:33 AM

Tony737 on April 30, 2011 at 11:08 AM

I refuse to allow myself to get optimistic over PA or WI anymore, at least not when it comes to Presidential elections.

Daemonocracy on April 30, 2011 at 11:33 AM

We’re moving to Iowa in May so we’ll do our part in turning that state RED! Utah should stay safe without us…

karl9000 on April 30, 2011 at 11:24 AM

Unfortunately we’ll need need several hundred thousand more of you to move to Iowa before it turns red again. We have conservative rural areas and liberal urban areas. Rural Iowa continues to lose population and the urban areas are growing. I seriously doubt Iowa will ever turn red again. Unless we find the next Ronald Reagan.

My two cents.

PS. Karl, where are you moving to? I live in Des Moines metro area.

HalSandro on April 30, 2011 at 11:34 AM

There has got to be a way to get New Mexico and Nevada in play … It’s time they rose up. – Free

I dunno, I hate to be pessimistic, and I hope I’m wrong, but it seems like those two are both getting bluer, especially N.M. Ever been to Santa Fe? It’s like, Hippie Central, maaaaaaan. And if NeVAHda can re-elect Harry “the war is over, we lost” Reid, then it’s hard to see how “red” they’ll be in 2012. As “Mile Marker” said, without a wall, the Southwest gets bluer.

Tony737 on April 30, 2011 at 11:34 AM

It’s a modest map, and one I don’t think is altogether unlikely.

Ish… but what about NE-2 going for Obama again? Then we’re in for some fun, eh? ;-)

Abby Adams on April 30, 2011 at 11:35 AM

The Democrats turned themselves into a coastal party what’s their strategy for regaining the majority more “Hair of the Dog” Taxes and Spending Investments and class warfare. Good luck with that Democrats, it worked out so great for you all in November 2010. The progressives are out of sync with the majority of the country, they are now perceived to be after nothing but Power- the end all to be all. It’s going to take the Democrat brand decades to build back up. They used the Blue Dogs and Moderates like human shields, well their human shields got dumped last November, now they are out in the open without any cover. We all can see their Union masters pulling their strings.

Dr Evil on April 30, 2011 at 11:36 AM

Ish… but what about NE-2 going for Obama again? Then we’re in for some fun, eh? ;-)

Abby Adams on April 30, 2011 at 11:35 AM

Heh, you’re very, very correct there.

Patrick Ishmael on April 30, 2011 at 11:36 AM

County by county Bush won California in 2004, hence the state was mostly RED, but that didn’t mean jack. – Rovin

Yeah, this is true.

Hey, maybe after the “Big One”, the islands of S.F. and L.A. can be granted independence?

Tony737 on April 30, 2011 at 11:40 AM

Ish… but what about NE-2 going for Obama again? Then we’re in for some fun, eh? ;-)

Abby Adams on April 30, 2011 at 11:35 AM

Really wish we could get thyat glitch changed.
Gov. Heineman proposed changing it awhile back, but I haven’t heard much about it since.
Omaha was crawling with ACORN workers crooks and had three offices in ’08. A real fiasco…

OmahaConservative on April 30, 2011 at 11:40 AM

Sigh. Washington state would be considered purple on the west side and blood red on the east if only for those IDIOTS living along the I-5 corridor in the Seattle/Tacoma/Olympia area. They always flip the state solid blue in their blind obedience to the Democraps. Bleah.

If this wasn’t such a beautiful place, I’d hate it.

theotherone on April 30, 2011 at 11:13 AM

Try living in CA where illegal immigrants vote and no one stops them. Where the Democrats just swept all the statewide officers in spite of the fact that they put us in the worst economic situation we’ve ever had. There is 14% unemployemnt and it’s very well known that the Democrats and activist judges at the behest of radical environmentalistkilled the Central Valley! I could go on but I am depressed and out of sorts enough as it is…

CCRWM on April 30, 2011 at 11:41 AM

Florida in 2008 was absolutely crazy. Or at least in the Jacksonville area. There were nothing but McCain/Palin signs with a few Ron Paul thrown in for good measure for months and months. Then, the night before election day, the place was plastered with Obama signs. Granted I didn’t go through the entire city, I am just talking major roads. It was just so odd.

Cindy Munford on April 30, 2011 at 11:30 AM

The phrase you’re looking for is “ground game”.

As in, McCain/Palin did not have one.

Purple Fury on April 30, 2011 at 11:41 AM

I refuse to allow myself to get optimistic over PA or WI anymore, at least not when it comes to Presidential elections. – Daemonocracy

We still have a chance there as long as we don’t let union thungs and Black Panther “soldiers” deter us from voting.

Everybody take your camera with you when you vote! (Not that Holder would use it to prosecute or anything).

Tony737 on April 30, 2011 at 11:43 AM

PappyD61 on April 30, 2011 at 11:13 AM

Just trying to make another Palin thread? She’ll fight for every vote and since Detroit is emptying out she might just win Michigan as well!

tim c on April 30, 2011 at 11:44 AM

We still have a chance there as long as we don’t let union thungs and Black Panther “soldiers” deter us from voting.

Everybody take your camera with you when you vote! (Not that Holder would use it to prosecute or anything).

Tony737 on April 30, 2011 at 11:43 AM

Exactly right, Tony. I refuse to become pessimistic when there is so very much at stake…

OmahaConservative on April 30, 2011 at 11:45 AM

There is a high degree urgency to 2012. We can not afford to just let the clock run out on this guy… his ideology must be defeated — soundly — or it will metastasize.

Greek Fire on April 30, 2011 at 11:31 AM

Yeah. Plus, 2 Supremes will be at stake.

Purple Fury on April 30, 2011 at 11:47 AM

Once the conservative candidate get’s on the campaign trail and starts meeting with folks and talking energy and common sense solutions, the voters in some of these “swing” states may wake up.

long_cat on April 30, 2011 at 11:49 AM

Try living in CA where illegal immigrants vote and no one stops them. – CCRWM

I’m sure not only does nobody stop them, I bet SOMEBODY is driving them to the polling stations! And what happens if you say something? Do they call you a RAAAAACIST?

I can hear it now: “How DARE you accuse us democrats of voter fraud?!” as they bring in people who just came across the border last night.

Tony737 on April 30, 2011 at 11:49 AM

I guess I was way to optimistic about MI. I still think if we can take out Stabenow we have a chance.

fourdeucer on April 30, 2011 at 11:54 AM

Penn & Wisc are the bellweathers.

If either or both go red, it’s over for the Bamster.

Bruno Strozek on April 30, 2011 at 11:55 AM

Looking at the map, I wonder if we could sede San Francisco to the Chinese to settle our debt with them. They already are a foreign country……

adamsmith on April 30, 2011 at 11:57 AM

fourdeucer on April 30, 2011 at 11:54 AM

Stabenow is a fetstering putrid pus-filled boil on the a$$ of MI that needs some serious lancing…

OmahaConservative on April 30, 2011 at 11:58 AM

Florida in 2008 was absolutely crazy. Or at least in the Jacksonville area. There were nothing but McCain/Palin signs with a few Ron Paul thrown in for good measure for months and months. Then, the night before election day, the place was plastered with Obama signs. Granted I didn’t go through the entire city, I am just talking major roads. It was just so odd.

Cindy Munford on April 30, 2011 at 11:30 AM

This is aother huge problem. Election fraud. Remember how low Reids poll numbers were and then all of a sudden close to the election they zoomed up (according to Democrat pollsters)when they should have gone down? and then SEIU was installing the election machines and people were complaining that even though they voted Republican the machine showed all Democrat. Nevada was stolen for Reid and if you don’t beleive that… look at the map, it went all red otherwise.

When I get the fundraising letters from Rience I always respond that I will donate contingent on the RNC articulating a plan that will effectively combat voter fraud and that plan must be effectuated. It never happens. So I think it’s going to be up to us not to let it happen and we should be formulating a plan now. IF they could steal Reid they will be embolden to steal it all and the LSM willl start a narrative that the Democrats are making a comeback…when you see that you’ll know it has started.

CCRWM on April 30, 2011 at 12:04 PM

OmahaConservative on April 30, 2011 at 11:58 AM

Amen, brother, Levin is just as bad but he is just as rooted as Kennedy was in MA.

fourdeucer on April 30, 2011 at 12:06 PM

PS. Karl, where are you moving to? I live in Des Moines metro area.

HalSandro on April 30, 2011 at 11:34 AM

Outside of Cedar Rapids close to Mount Vernon, neighbor!

karl9000 on April 30, 2011 at 12:11 PM

States had to be rated a 5 or better to be put in the Republican column. In cases where a state was rated less than a 5, Advantage Obama.

Technically, since scores from 1 to 7 were possible, with 4 being a dead heat, shouldn’t any state with an average score above 4 be Advantage Republican (even if that advantage is ever so slight)?

steebo77 on April 30, 2011 at 12:11 PM

Just talked to my lib doctor sister. I menationed “stuck with Obama” after she said she is getting tired of listening to NPR because there is too much war coverage. I told her it was because it fit their anti war agenda to keep ranting about it. I told her even foxnews isn’t putting that much emphasis on covering the war. After I mentioned that I think it is hilarious that obama continued most of the bush policies on the war and started MORE wars, where was the left going to go to vote? I said they are “stuck” with Obama. She said, “I don’t feel stuck”. So I asked her who she would vote for instead and she clarified that she didn’t think she was stuck with Obama as an option, she still fully supported him. I told her he was a total fool with really bad economic policy with miserable results to show for adding 5 trillion to the deficit. She went on to blame congress. I told her that was all democrat spending. She is still stuck on stupid. Therefore, I am pessimistic about getting rid of stabenow here in MI.

I actually suggested that she run for Senate herself, as I consider my sister way more intelligent than Stabenow (in spite of being stuck on stupid for being a lib). I think my sister to contribute positively toward solving the health care mess.

karenhasfreedom on April 30, 2011 at 12:13 PM

Do these maps include the reassigned EVs from the 2010 census?

das411 on April 30, 2011 at 12:15 PM

Technically, since scores from 1 to 7 were possible, with 4 being a dead heat, shouldn’t any state with an average score above 4 be Advantage Republican (even if that advantage is ever so slight)?

steebo77 on April 30, 2011 at 12:11 PM

According to that methodology, the only battleground state that survey takers think Obama will win is Michigan (and then, only among out-of-staters).

steebo77 on April 30, 2011 at 12:15 PM

I don’t think Obama will lose in MI. We are a few years behind getting enlightened like WI. We have contributed by getting more R’s in Congress, but we are still sending real losers there from the really blue areas, not to mention 2 horrible senators.

karenhasfreedom on April 30, 2011 at 12:17 PM

karenhasfreedom on April 30, 2011 at 12:13 PM

You are very fortunate to still have a relationship with your lib sister. My libtard/leftist college prof brother has estranged himself from his siblings and even his own children over politics. It would break our late mother’s heart…

OmahaConservative on April 30, 2011 at 12:18 PM

Before I dive into these…..just wanted to say again how insanely cool this is (must take a serious chunk of time to set-up, test, debug and get online)…..really looking forward to your survey’s leading up to November ’12.

Tim_CA on April 30, 2011 at 12:24 PM

Do these maps include the reassigned EVs from the 2010 census?

das411 on April 30, 2011 at 12:15 PM

It appears so.

Lanceman on April 30, 2011 at 12:27 PM

Wow….Am I the only person who gave MI a “2″ and NM and CO “3′s”…??

Tim_CA on April 30, 2011 at 12:33 PM

Tim_CA on April 30, 2011 at 12:33 PM

No, I did.
L

letget on April 30, 2011 at 12:34 PM

karenhasfreedom on April 30, 2011 at 12:13 PM

Don’t forget that we lost one congressional seat ( I think it was John Conyers) in a heavily democrat district. We also won pretty big in the 2010 election. As for your sister, our family doctor is a member of the largest Baptist church in our area, he recently started a local organization to mirror the national organization Silent No More. He has 7 kids in the local Catholic school, 3 have graduated, his wife started a soldiers support group mirroring our Catholic, well organized and recognized group. We are trying and our efforts will be rewarded. Keep your chin up.

fourdeucer on April 30, 2011 at 12:37 PM

Heh.

I find the Florida result quite encouraging (as I live there).

I guess you can say that if FL goes Blue, the election fraud sign should light up.

Beyond the college student demographic, I’m not sure who, exactly, would vote for Obama.

Scott H on April 30, 2011 at 12:41 PM

County by county Bush won California in 2004, hence the state was mostly RED, but that didn’t mean jack. – Rovin

Yeah, this is true.

Hey, maybe after the “Big One”, the islands of S.F. and L.A. can be granted independence?

Tony737 on April 30, 2011 at 11:40 AM

You forget all of the counties around SF: Marin, Sonoma, Mendocino, Alameda (where Oakland and Berkeley is). The entire western coast would need to fall off to give the state a chance of turning red.

Alibali on April 30, 2011 at 12:47 PM

Still too early to get excited, but it I appreciate the snapshot of the political landscape as it currently exists. It is going to take a generation or two to flush out the statists from the institutes of education, the pop culture, and the Judiciary, but I’d like to think that it is still not too late to take the required actions to make it so.

The Tea Party isn’t going anywhere, and can only grow in size and intensity as the situation in the country continues to stagnate. President Obama has done what no other liberal chief executive has accomplished since Jimmy Carter: shown the nation what unchecked statism mixed with amateur night leadership looks like.

2012 is going to be the year everything changes. Start stocking up on popcorn now.

itzWicks on April 30, 2011 at 12:50 PM

Wow….Am I the only person who gave MI a “2″ and NM and CO “3′s”…??

Tim_CA on April 30, 2011 at 12:33 PM

I think I gave MI & NM 2s, and maybe CO a 3. But it was like ages ago (in internetland) that I filled it out, so it’s anybody’s guess.

Abby Adams on April 30, 2011 at 12:50 PM

Beyond the college student demographic, I’m not sure who, exactly, would vote for Obama.

Scott H on April 30, 2011 at 12:41 PM

The Jewish vote from NY.

2008 was an anomaly. With the unemployment rate where it’s at, don’t expect us to be blue.

Lanceman on April 30, 2011 at 12:53 PM

I read this week that PA is very key. If Obama loses PA he can’t win.

Also, that the Hillary voters are not going to get tricked into voting for Obama again.

So at very least voter enthusiasm for Obama will be dampened and Republicans have a good chance.

Maybe I’m just trying to find reasons why Obama won’t win, it helps me sleep at night… but the reasoning seemed sound.

When did Murtha die? After Obama? I can’t place it in time. I bet Murtha’s death will loosen some Democrat power in PA. He was the kind of pol who controlled everything in the state.

petunia on April 30, 2011 at 1:32 PM

Technically, since scores from 1 to 7 were possible, with 4 being a dead heat, shouldn’t any state with an average score above 4 be Advantage Republican (even if that advantage is ever so slight)?

steebo77 on April 30, 2011 at 12:11 PM

A tie probably always goes to the incumbent. They have so many structural benefits, like being able to control the message and name recognition.

petunia on April 30, 2011 at 1:37 PM

I knew the results from that poll would be interesting!

Excellent work, as always Ish. More please!

eyesky on April 30, 2011 at 1:38 PM

HalSandro on April 30, 2011 at 11:34 AM

There has got to be a way to get New Mexico and Nevada in play … It’s time they rose up. – Free

I dunno, I hate to be pessimistic, and I hope I’m wrong, but it seems like those two are both getting bluer, especially N.M. Ever been to Santa Fe? It’s like, Hippie Central, maaaaaaan. And if NeVAHda can re-elect Harry “the war is over, we lost” Reid, then it’s hard to see how “red” they’ll be in 2012. As “Mile Marker” said, without a wall, the Southwest gets bluer.

Tony737 on April 30, 2011 at 11:34 AM

New Mexico just got a Republican governer didn’t they? That is a good sign.

And I think Reid was an anomally. The casino people seemed to think he brings home the bacon.

But Nevada’s economy isn’t going to improve and that is squarely on Obama’s head. Life was good under Bush in Nevada.

Angle was a very poor candidate. I know she had lots of support here but she wasn’t good.

petunia on April 30, 2011 at 1:41 PM

Seems like these maps are a worse case scenario; so, I find them encouraging, i.e., the GOP should outperform these maps.

mockmook on April 30, 2011 at 1:58 PM

Nevada has moved more blue as well as Colorado because of immigration. Need to shutdown the borders!

You can shutdown the borders of California?

parteagirl on April 30, 2011 at 2:06 PM

I don’t think Obama will lose in MI. We are a few years behind getting enlightened like WI. We have contributed by getting more R’s in Congress, but we are still sending real losers there from the really blue areas, not to mention 2 horrible senators.

karenhasfreedom on April 30, 2011 at 12:17 PM

You are right on that. Now there’s the latest news story of Kwamee’s sister using money in a fund to restore the mayoral mansion for her own wedding. Every time I hear stories on the Detroit Fox News affiliate where Detroiters are complaining that they need more money from the state, i promptly hop online and leave comments to the story to the effect of “I didn’t vote for the fools you put in office to waste your money, don’t coming asking for mine because I can’t vote them out”.

Of course, I live in the ‘enlightened’ lib land of Ann Arbor so my money isn’t wasted by corruption, it’s the ‘smart’ people running this town who would rather have the artsy expensive new street signs than fix the bridge next to U of M stadium where you can actually see through the holes in the bridge to the road beneath. Oy vey.

miConsevative on April 30, 2011 at 2:16 PM

It all looks very encouraging. Especially the fact that in state people are optimistic.

I gotta admit though, I don’t understand Iowa. Why is it leaning Democrat? Is it ethanol or what?

forest on April 30, 2011 at 10:58 AM

We are small enough that collage towns dominate. On a positive note, the winds are shifting. We are one state senator short of having a GOP take over. We fended off card check, right to work, Shall carry gun law and few other Progressive attacks(while Dems held majority). Boswell(D) will lose his seat to latham (R), bank on that. I have great hopes that Iowa will not help elect Obama. We have turned right. Three of the SC judges that declared Iowa law against same sex marriage were voted out(only three were up for review). Iowa does not vote for SC judges but we can vote to throw the bums out :o)
Harkin seems to be a humiliation we can not absolve ourselves from. We will not quit trying though.

P.S. Repubs and Dems both cowtow to the ethanol subsidies. The average Iowa voter does not care that much about the issue. We have bigger fish to fry. The cronies (lobbyists) care not voters.

IowaWoman on April 30, 2011 at 3:12 PM

Three of the SC judges that declared Iowa law against same sex marriage was unconstitutional were voted out(only three were up for review).

Fixed, sorry

IowaWoman on April 30, 2011 at 3:15 PM

We’re moving to Iowa in May so we’ll do our part in turning that state RED! Utah should stay safe without us…

karl9000 on April 30, 2011 at 11:24 AM

Good news! Iowa is so small your vote does count. LOL

IowaWoman on April 30, 2011 at 3:19 PM

I think it’s almost a certainty that NC, IN and VA will be red in 2012. So 2012 will – like 2000 and 2004 – come down to OH and FL.

angryed on April 30, 2011 at 3:39 PM

As long as all those illegal voters get to vote in Colorado, it’ll never turn red again, which, of course, is the plan. Nevada is a lost cause as well.

SouthernGent on April 30, 2011 at 3:41 PM

But Nevada’s economy isn’t going to improve and that is squarely on Obama’s head. Life was good under Bush in Nevada.

Angle was a very poor candidate. I know she had lots of support here but she wasn’t good.

petunia on April 30, 2011 at 1:41 PM

Hispanics are 35-40% of the state. They vote 70% for Dems. Unemployment could be 25% and Obama will still, sadly, carry NV.

Only reason Nevada has a GOP governor is because his name is Sandoval. Had the same person run but with a last name of Smith, Nevada would have had a Dem gov.

Which is why, the GOP has to have a Hispanic VP in 2012 or not even bother with Nevada, New Mexico or Colorado.

angryed on April 30, 2011 at 3:43 PM

As for North Carolina, watch Wake County (Raleigh). It’s a microchasm of NC itself. If Palin (heh!) can win Wake County (by any margin), she’ll win NC.

SouthernGent on April 30, 2011 at 3:46 PM

look at the map, it went all red otherwise.
CCRWM on April 30, 2011 at 12:04 PM

While I believe Reid stole the election as well, the map doesn’t prove anything. Outside of Las Vegas and Reno, NV has always been very red. Every election in NV is the same. Bright blue in Reno/Las Vegas, dark red everywhere else.

What matters is how blue is Las Vegas. 65/35 = Dem win. 55/45 = Rep win. But even under the best case scenario for a Republican, Las Vegas will still be blue, like it always has been.

angryed on April 30, 2011 at 3:49 PM

I think Mitt would help nudge NH (lots of Mass media carry over from his governorship), MI (family ties) and NV (lots of Mormons there but most would vote GOP anyway) toward the republican column. He could push NC or Fl the other way but probably not enough to lose them.

KW64 on April 30, 2011 at 4:01 PM

The phrase you’re looking for is “ground game”.

As in, McCain/Palin did not have one.

I was volunteering for McCain in Florida. I can attest to that.

YehuditTX on April 30, 2011 at 4:04 PM

Just imagine if sTRUMPet were the VP candidate. Hide the kiddies when he goes to debate Biden :-)

MJBrutus

No way!

Biden will be dropped from the ticket due to “health reasons”, to be replaced by someone who O’Bambi thinks will help him in a questionable state.

honsy on April 30, 2011 at 4:09 PM

Where those electoral vote counts for before or after reapportionment from the 2010 census?

crosspatch on April 30, 2011 at 4:15 PM

Uh…what is this supposed to tell us? What Hot Air readers think is going to happen?

Jaibones on April 30, 2011 at 4:21 PM

Because if that’s the deal, then Fred Thompson is the President…

Jaibones on April 30, 2011 at 4:21 PM

Palin in a landslide. She wins more blue states and a greater plurality of democrat voters than any candidate since Reagan. Hold me to it.

rrpjr on April 30, 2011 at 4:30 PM

Palin in a landslide. She wins more blue states and a greater plurality of democrat voters than any candidate since Reagan. Hold me to it.

rrpjr on April 30, 2011 at 4:30 PM

Ok, logged in my book of 2012 predictions. We’ll see how you do.

DarkCurrent on April 30, 2011 at 4:40 PM

Palin in a landslide. She wins more blue states and a greater plurality of democrat voters than any candidate since Reagan. Hold me to it.

rrpjr on April 30, 2011 at 4:30 PM

Exactly. She has pockets of support where most people don’t realize. Hispanics will vote for her in droves. She has incredible support among them.

I think she’ll get a lot of votes from rank and file union members too.

People that don’t “get” palin are going to be shocked at just how bad she kicks Obama’s scrawny little butt in November of 2012.

Plus she is going to have exceptionally long coattails.

She’ll bring an even larger majority to the House, and a majority to the Senate. Any governorships up for grabs will see the Palin effect as well.

As Trump would say, It’ll be HUGE.

gary4205 on April 30, 2011 at 5:58 PM

Here’s a thought let the Blue States pay $4.00+ per gallon and the Red States go back pre-Obama $1.83 prices!

shov74 on April 30, 2011 at 6:07 PM

There are NO blue states…….only blue CITIES. The republicans must count voters in the hinterlands to overcome this advantage. In Michigan fully 73 of 85 counties will vote red. The cities contain way less than 50% of the states population, perhaps as much as 3.5 mil. to 6.5 mil. If republicans will get a better ground game going, turn 50% turnout to 60% in the rural counties Michigan becomes red. Forget the cities, we cannot win there, spend every dime and all energy outside of cities with populations more than 500k. Republicans should go back to the old precinct method and count EVERY vote.

Tonynoboloney on April 30, 2011 at 6:20 PM

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