Hot Air survey results: Electoral battleground edition

posted at 10:45 am on April 30, 2011 by Patrick Ishmael

States had to be rated a 5 or better to be put in the Republican column. In cases where a state was rated less than a 5, Advantage Obama.

A reminder, the battleground states were: New Hampshire, Indiana, Missouri, Wisconsin, Virginia, Nevada, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Colorado, Michigan, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, and Iowa. The remainder were either likely or safely in the hands of one party or another, and were divided accordingly; if you think I erred in thinking a state wasn’t competitive, please say so.

Over 2000 Hot Air readers cast ballots. The table of overall scores follows:

(“In State Avg” is how residents of the state rated their own state.)

Generally speaking, state residents ranked the GOP’s chances in their state higher than their non-state counterparts. There were two exceptions: Pennsylvania and Iowa, both of whom were more pessimistic about the GOP’s chances than non-Pennsylvanians and Iowans.

I’ve color-coded three maps to represent different aspects of the data.

The first is the electoral map of voters who rated their own state (the “In State Avg”). If residents of a state know the political climate of their battleground state the best, then Hot Air readers think the Republican will defeat Barack Obama in the electoral college, 286-252. Republicans take New Hampshire, Indiana, Missouri, Wisconsin, Virginia, Nevada, Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina in this scenario, and lose Colorado, Michigan, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, and Iowa.

The second is the electoral map of voters who are non-residents of the rated state. So, for instance, the Pennsylvania rating here encompasses all votes cast, except those from Pennsylvanians. If dispassionate non-residents know best, then Hot Air readers believe the Republican will defeat Barack Obama in the electoral college, 272-266. Republicans gain Iowa, but lose New Hampshire, Wisconsin, and Nevada.

And finally, the last map is of the states where both residents and non-residents agree a state is likely going to the Republican. In this “agreement map,” the Republican loses to Barack Obama, 272-266. Here, Iowa has moved into Barack Obama’s column, as residents disagreed with non-residents by just enough to throw the votes to the President.

Below is a map I created that totals to the very least number of votes a Republican can take — 270 — and still win. The difference between this and the “agreement” map is New Hampshire flips to the Republican. It’s a modest map, and one I don’t think is altogether unlikely.

Any of these seem more likely than the others? Tell me in the comments, or on Twitter. The monthly candidate survey is posting tomorrow, so stay tuned.


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PS. Karl, where are you moving to? I live in Des Moines metro area.

HalSandro on April 30, 2011 at 11:34 AM

I live in Des Moines..

lovingmyUSA on April 30, 2011 at 7:28 PM

IowaWoman on April 30, 2011 at 3:12 PM

I am definitely working for LATHAM!

lovingmyUSA on April 30, 2011 at 7:34 PM

I talked to a conservative in NC today and he is fairly politically active, enough to go to the post election HQ parties. I asked him which way he thought NC would swing in 2012, and he was emphatic that it would be red. So things are looking good for us. I told him we still have voters stuck on stupid here in MI so I wasn’t optimistic we could contribute some electoral votes for the good side.

karenhasfreedom on April 30, 2011 at 7:50 PM

It’s a looooooooooooooooong way to November 2012. I’m really optimistic about the Republicans chances. The Democrats have tried to sabotage Ryan and his budget and it’s not working. The press is doing its’ job and it’s still not working. Obama went out and completely trashing Ryan and his plan, and it still didn’t work. This all says something about the mood of the country right now.

Can anyone imagine the Democrats doing anything that is going to change this mood? I see the Democrats doing the same thing they’ve always done, demagogue everything the Republicans propose in order to drive down their poll numbers, but it’s not working.

Chuckie Schumer told the world that he’s supposed to use the word “extreme” when talking about Republican plans. I think the Republicans should be cheering because it appears, the American public believes that “extreme” measures are necessary to deal with this debt. Now, wouldn’t that be funny.

bflat879 on April 30, 2011 at 10:49 PM

Electoral maps more than 18 months before the election should be labeled, “For Entertainment Purposes Only.”

We can’t even put a face on the Republican candidate, not that it matters so much. Incumbent Presidents are nearly always judged on their first term records. If voters have a favorable evaluation of the first term, sitting Presidents win by a comfortable margin.

It’s hard to imagine too much improvement in the next twelve months, given the additional weights Obama has placed on the economy. Barring an economic miracle, he has an uphill fight.

Adjoran on May 1, 2011 at 1:55 AM

Breaks my heart to see PA in blue.

If you go by county, it’s a lot more red.

Tony737 on April 30, 2011 at 11:05 AM

Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Erie and few other places concentrate enough Welfare voters and pathetic liberals that we in the middle of the state just can’t overcome the numbers.

Siddhartha Vicious on May 1, 2011 at 6:41 AM

There are NO blue states…….only blue CITIES.

Tonynoboloney on April 30, 2011 at 6:20 PM

And, the union machines are well oiled in these large cities. In Illinois, Quinn took only 4 out of 102 counties and still won because of Cook County (Chicago).

We need poll watchers.

Fallon on May 1, 2011 at 9:51 AM

In PA, our seemingly endless blue is all Philly. If you could eliminate the oceans of voter fraud from that city we be quite a bit closer to red. Its one of those situations where the rest of the state is 60 – 40 Republican but no GOP presidential candidate has won PA since 1988.

Just like too often, one small corrupt, liberal area is ruining a whole state.

alecj on May 1, 2011 at 1:34 PM

karenhasfreedom on April 30, 2011 at 7:50 PM

I dunno ’bout that…too many nor’easters blow into that state. Durham and Raleigh are just like Atlanta, only more liberals.

DanaSmiles on May 1, 2011 at 6:46 PM

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