Hot Air survey: Electoral battleground edition

posted at 11:40 am on April 28, 2011 by Patrick Ishmael

Which states do you think will vote for Obama in 2012, and which states will vote for the Republican? Below I’ve listed fourteen battlegrounds for you to score on a scale from “1″ to “7″, with “7″ being the most likely to vote Republican. Then I’ll total up the averages and pass along what a Hot Air-predicted electoral map might look like.

Now obviously, much will turn on who the GOP nominates — especially on the state-by-state level — so choose your ratings based on your overall impressions of the state’s politics and the political climate for or against Obama, regardless of the ultimate Republican candidate. Think “generic Republican,” with some of your gut instincts.

After you submit your vote, there are two links on the confirmation page against which you may want to compare your ratings. We’ll try to get this turned around ASAP. As always, only vote once.


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I got stomped on the Harry Reid election in 2010. I thought I knew Nevadans better than that. So, I have lost faith in them and believe irrespective of what Obama does until then, Nevada will go for Obama. I have lots of friends in NV and I hope they prove me wrong!

csdeven on April 28, 2011 at 11:45 AM

Other than New Mexico and Michigan, I’d say pretty much all of them are looking likely – to say the least.

abobo on April 28, 2011 at 11:46 AM

Can’t wait to see the chart from this poll!

How do you use the area code input? Better location ID?

eyesky on April 28, 2011 at 11:46 AM

I may have submitted more than once… I don’t even know if it went once…

petunia on April 28, 2011 at 11:47 AM

csdeven on April 28, 2011 at 11:45 AM

You and me both buddy. Goddamn Clark county!!! Give it to cali in exchange for the Sierra Nevadas I say. They get our liberal douche bags and some more industries to abuse. We get their best scenery!!

abobo on April 28, 2011 at 11:47 AM

Looking forward to your composites, as always, Patrick!

rwenger43 on April 28, 2011 at 11:48 AM

I have lots of friends in NV and I hope they prove me wrong!

csdeven on April 28, 2011 at 11:45 AM

I think we will. Harry red had a ton of the business folks behind him, obambi not so much.

VegasRick on April 28, 2011 at 11:48 AM

Can’t wait to see the chart from this poll!

How do you use the area code input? Better location ID?

eyesky on April 28, 2011 at 11:46 AM

Helps deter fraud. If a voter doesn’t know the area code for the zip code they’re entering, it’s a red flag.

Patrick Ishmael on April 28, 2011 at 11:48 AM

Okay, now it went… my first screen didn’t have the state code… then I got a message.

petunia on April 28, 2011 at 11:49 AM

I got stomped on the Harry Reid election in 2010. I thought I knew Nevadans better than that. So, I have lost faith in them and believe irrespective of what Obama does until then, Nevada will go for Obama. I have lots of friends in NV and I hope they prove me wrong!

csdeven on April 28, 2011 at 11:45 AM

That had less to do with the voters in NV than the fact that Angle was a lousy candidate to put up against him.

Hollowpoint on April 28, 2011 at 11:50 AM

I got stomped on the Harry Reid election in 2010. I thought I knew Nevadans better than that. So, I have lost faith in them and believe irrespective of what Obama does until then, Nevada will go for Obama. I have lots of friends in NV and I hope they prove me wrong!

csdeven on April 28, 2011 at 11:45 AM

By the time Nov 2012 rolls around, they will have had two additional years to suffer under Obama and two additional years to see that Reid has done nothing for them. Angle was a bad candidate, but that said, there were definite election shenanigans. I don’t think Obama wins again there without fraud. With fraud?…all bets are off everywhere including NV.

Kataklysmic on April 28, 2011 at 11:50 AM

I think we will. Harry red had a ton of the business folks behind him, obambi not so much.

VegasRick on April 28, 2011 at 11:48 AM

You think there was hanky panky? I can not believe they would retain him after he helped cause all the trouble economically. It was just so shocking!

Although for a small state like Nevada to have the number two guy in government… that would be giving up some power.

petunia on April 28, 2011 at 11:52 AM

You and me both buddy. Goddamn Clark county!!! Give it to cali in exchange for the Sierra Nevadas I say. They get our liberal douche bags and some more industries to abuse. We get their best scenery!!

abobo on April 28, 2011 at 11:47 AM

Thanks but were okay. We (Clark County) will fight this battle. You are probably in favor of raising $200,000 earners taxes as well I’d bet.

VegasRick on April 28, 2011 at 11:52 AM

Helps deter fraud. If a voter doesn’t know the area code for the zip code they’re entering, it’s a red flag.

Patrick Ishmael on April 28, 2011 at 11:48 AM

Ah, gotcha. thnx

eyesky on April 28, 2011 at 11:53 AM

Other than New Mexico and Michigan, I’d say pretty much all of them are looking likely – to say the least.

abobo on April 28, 2011 at 11:46 AM

If we can deliver a strong candidate against Debbie Stabinow we may be able to turn MI.

fourdeucer on April 28, 2011 at 11:53 AM

I don’t understand why Michigan is a battleground state… Its been almost 20 years since it has voted Republican. And with entitlements being all the rage these days and the poor state of MI now its just going to keep voting Blue.

nobleclem on April 28, 2011 at 11:54 AM

If VA, NC, MO and IN are even in play in 2012, We’ve got a problem, but I doubt they will be. Call me an optimist, but I’m looking at PA, WI, NV and CO as the battlegrounds.

forest on April 28, 2011 at 11:54 AM

You think there was hanky panky? I can not believe they would retain him after he helped cause all the trouble economically. It was just so shocking!

Although for a small state like Nevada to have the number two guy in government… that would be giving up some power.

petunia on April 28, 2011 at 11:52 AM

%100. Wayne Allen Root figured it out.

VegasRick on April 28, 2011 at 11:55 AM

VegasRick on April 28, 2011 at 11:52 AM

Nope, it’s the folks in YOUR county that have pushed liberal politics in state and given us Michigan style unemployment. Keep talking down to me city boy, I really don’t care – an economic engine is only a blessing until becomes dead weight.

abobo on April 28, 2011 at 11:56 AM

It appears I did a good job on my choice for the states. I love these polls Patrick, thanks.
L

letget on April 28, 2011 at 11:56 AM

%100. Wayne Allen Root figured it out.

VegasRick on April 28, 2011 at 11:55 AM

Okay, one thing to agree on.

abobo on April 28, 2011 at 11:56 AM

Hollowpoint on April 28, 2011 at 11:50 AM

They clearly didn’t realize that Reid was worse than Angle was.

csdeven on April 28, 2011 at 11:57 AM

Helps deter fraud. If a voter doesn’t know the area code for the zip code they’re entering, it’s a red flag.

Patrick Ishmael on April 28, 2011 at 11:48 AM

We have at least 2 area codes if not more in my little town.
708
630
and now they’re handing out
312 (which is primarily Chicago)

They’ve run out of phone numbers I guess.

Knucklehead on April 28, 2011 at 11:59 AM

Helps deter fraud. If a voter doesn’t know the area code for the zip code they’re entering, it’s a red flag.

Patrick Ishmael on April 28, 2011 at 11:48 AM

I had a cell phone with a CA area code for two years while living in MD. Might be a good idea to tell people to use their land line area code.

Count to 10 on April 28, 2011 at 11:59 AM

The election is going to be determined by what Bernanke said in his news conference yesterday…

… I’ll sum it up in case you missed it.

“You guys are so scroomed…

… it’s not even funny anymore.”

Seven Percent Solution on April 28, 2011 at 12:01 PM

Keep talking down to me city boy, I really don’t care – an economic engine is only a blessing until becomes dead weight.

abobo on April 28, 2011 at 11:56 AM

Trust me, you would be proud to share a foxhole with me and mine. As I am sure I would be proud to share one with you and yours. We are closer than you think. Also I did campaign and donate lots of $ to Sharron Angle and was more disappointed than most.

VegasRick on April 28, 2011 at 12:01 PM

14% unemployment in NV. Probably mostly in Clark county. Plus the housing crash has hit them hard. That issue belongs to the demrats.

And they voted against Angle. Unbelievable.

csdeven on April 28, 2011 at 12:02 PM

You and me both buddy. Goddamn Clark county!!! Give it to cali in exchange for the Sierra Nevadas I say. They get our liberal douche bags and some more industries to abuse. We get their best scenery!!

abobo on April 28, 2011 at 11:47 AM

You’re just saying that because you want all the water.
I don’t blame you. Best water in the world.

Count to 10 on April 28, 2011 at 12:02 PM

Helps deter fraud. If a voter doesn’t know the area code for the zip code they’re entering, it’s a red flag.

Patrick Ishmael on April 28, 2011 at 11:48 AM

Ron Paul is gonna sweep all of those states!

forest on April 28, 2011 at 12:03 PM

If we get a conservative Republican I expect a Reaganesque landslide. If we get Mitt, trump, and company not so much.

Slowburn on April 28, 2011 at 12:08 PM

And they voted against Angle. Unbelievable.

csdeven on April 28, 2011 at 12:02 PM

Bussed in Latino’s stole the election. Read Wayne Allen Root (who lives in Vegas BTW)

VegasRick on April 28, 2011 at 12:09 PM

It’s an incredibly meaningless poll, even by the usual low standards. After all, we only know who the Dem nominee is going to be. The GOP has virtually nobody running who a sane person could vote for yet. Hopefully that will change, but until some grown up enters the race (OK, T-Paw or Romney marginally qualify) then every state in the union is likely to go for PBHO.

MJBrutus on April 28, 2011 at 12:11 PM

If I claim to be a Democrat, I’m entitled to vote more than once.

locomotivebreath1901 on April 28, 2011 at 12:14 PM

Slowburn on April 28, 2011 at 12:08 PM

Paul Ryan would fit the bill. However I’d really like to see Herman Cain.

talking_mouse on April 28, 2011 at 12:17 PM

It’s an incredibly meaningless poll, even by the usual low standards. After all, we only know who the Dem nominee is going to be. The GOP has virtually nobody running who a sane person could vote for yet. Hopefully that will change, but until some grown up enters the race (OK, T-Paw or Romney marginally qualify) then every state in the union is likely to go for PBHO.

MJBrutus on April 28, 2011 at 12:11 PM

I’m sure you would readily admit that even your least favorite prospective candidate is far better than Obama. So for you to say that no one is running that a sane person would vote for, I’m assuming the implication is that no one is running that the media hasn’t or can’t paint as worse than Obama. If that is the case, then no candidate is good enough. If a large enough percentage of the voting public is too stupid to see that anyone would be better than Obama, they are too stupid to vote for the GOP no matter who it is.

It’s not like Obama and the media are going to say “Oh, Mitch Daniels is the nominee? Oh, whew! He seems reasonable and moderate–let’s go ahead and tell the drooling masses that it’s okay to vote for him”

Kataklysmic on April 28, 2011 at 12:20 PM

OT…this is serious

Tornado’s damage Obamas favorite golf course!!!!

http://www.politico.com/politico44/perm/0411/notify_the_president_e59834e3-9606-499f-8a84-251ee866b08d.html

PatriotRider on April 28, 2011 at 12:21 PM

My thoughts-

MO, IN, NC, VA, FL, and OH are going Republican, with NH, MI, and WI likely to do so as well.

MO went red in 2008, narrowly, and has since resoundingly voted in an anti-Obamacare law by something like a 75-25 margin.

IN, NC, and VA went Obama due to high student turnout, high minority turnout, and the ability of Illinois residents to cross over to Gary, IN, and vote Obama because there were no competitive races there in 2008. I think all of those states go red easily this time because the level of enthusiasm isn’t there and the redistricting of House seats means less of a buffer for the machine to bus people to Gary.

FL and OH went blue in 2008 because the economy was down and Bush got the blame. Since then, the Dems have screwed the pooch with the Ohio economy and with health care, which is a HUGE issue down in Florida. These may still be in play but will tilt red IMHO.

WI, MI, and NH have all trended red the past three years, with all three states tossing out a bunch of Dem incumbents in the past three years. WI’s spot as the focus of the current PEU vs. states battle should help galvanize support for Republicans there with people seeing the depths the Dems and unions will sink to.

I’m not sure what to make of Iowa or Pennsylvania.

I think that Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico go Dem because of the illegal immigrant vote, the strong union presence in Reno and Las Vegas, and the likelihood that the Dems will buy votes on the reservations in NM like they do in states such as South Dakota.

teke184 on April 28, 2011 at 12:24 PM

Some of the usual battleground states have Republican governors, which will help turn or keep those states red. Despite it’s economic Chernobyl, I think NV goes blue. I’m curious how Michigan will go in 2012. If they vote blue, then they deserve their misery. Colorado will be a toss-up. WI and NC will be close. A lot of “carpetbaggers” (as the locals like to say) have infiltrated NC. VA should be a solid red.

The misery index against Obama will be so high that he will lose big. How big depends on the GOP candidate. Obama still has a lot of time left to make things worse. Also, the Republicans need to win big to counter voter fraud.

conservative pilgrim on April 28, 2011 at 12:25 PM

OT…this is serious

Tornado’s damage Obamas favorite golf course!!!!

http://www.politico.com/politico44/perm/0411/notify_the_president_e59834e3-9606-499f-8a84-251ee866b08d.html

PatriotRider on April 28, 2011 at 12:21 PM

Oh I’m sure he’ll call for a state of emergency there. To the rest of the devastation………..crickets.

Knucklehead on April 28, 2011 at 12:26 PM

Thanks Patrick. This is an interesting poll and a nice respite from candidate bashing.

conservative pilgrim on April 28, 2011 at 12:29 PM

I’m sure you would readily admit that even your least favorite prospective candidate is far better than Obama.

Actually I wouldn’t admit that. At least not in the sense of being better for the country. Especially if the GOP get control of both houses of Congress. I see divided government as a good thing in and of itself. It certainly beats a unified GOP with some moron (Huck, Bachman, take your pick) in the WH. I see gaining control of the Senate as even more important than the WH in 2012.

So for you to say that no one is running that a sane person would vote for, I’m assuming the implication is that no one is running that the media hasn’t or can’t paint as worse than Obama. If that is the case, then no candidate is good enough. If a large enough percentage of the voting public is too stupid to see that anyone would be better than Obama, they are too stupid to vote for the GOP no matter who it is.

No, I am not measuring sanity by the media’s reaction. I am measuring sanity by their degree of sanity!

It’s not like Obama and the media are going to say “Oh, Mitch Daniels is the nominee? Oh, whew! He seems reasonable and moderate–let’s go ahead and tell the drooling masses that it’s okay to vote for him”

Kataklysmic on April 28, 2011 at 12:20 PM

Actually they will give Daniels, should he get the nomination, a much easier ride than most others. I’m not saying that’s the best reason to support him, but it does contribute to his electability.

MJBrutus on April 28, 2011 at 12:30 PM

I’m sure you would readily admit that even your least favorite prospective candidate is far better than Obama.

Actually I wouldn’t admit that. At least not in the sense of being better for the country.

MJBrutus on April 28, 2011 at 12:30 PM

Well, if that is your position, you and I have little to discuss.

Kataklysmic on April 28, 2011 at 12:34 PM

Bussed in Latino’s stole the election. Read Wayne Allen Root (who lives in Vegas BTW)

VegasRick on April 28, 2011 at 12:09 PM

Where did they bus them in from?

csdeven on April 28, 2011 at 12:35 PM

vote for yet.

MJBrutus on April 28, 2011 at 12:11 PM

Hurry, knock on wood!!! Good gravy I hope we don’t have a replay of 1996! I think looking for the next Reagan is a mistake. Reagan doesn’t own what he did. He is simply how we identify what he was. I pray that 2012 is the year we elect the next person is personifies the conservative vision. But I’m with you, I don’t see a person who personifies conservative values to the point that bluedogs can be brought in.

csdeven on April 28, 2011 at 12:40 PM

Where did they bus them in from?

csdeven on April 28, 2011 at 12:35 PM

We have the highest 100 per population of illegals than ANY other state. Where they are is EVERYWHERE.

VegasRick on April 28, 2011 at 12:43 PM

Republicans need only 296 electoral votes in 2012. In case of a 269-269 tie, the HoR would determine the winner — and Republicans control a majority of state delegations.

aunursa on April 28, 2011 at 1:02 PM

Doh. I meant 269 electoral votes.

aunursa on April 28, 2011 at 1:03 PM

Obama has probably already lost FL–it’s full of retired people who strongly resent his cutting Medicare to fund ObamaCare, and Charlie Crist crashed and burned last year over his embracing Obama.

VA and NC were flukes in 2008, but will probably be back into the Republican fold in 2012, after Bob McDonnell won big in 2009 for VA Governor, and Richard Burr won big in 2010 for Senate from NC. The Senate race in VA will drive turnout, and Tim Kaine is far to the left of Jim Webb, who only won narrowly in ’06 based on George Allen’s “macaca” gaffe, so Indies will probably shift back to the Republicans.

Indiana was also a fluke in ’08, based mostly on “spillover” votes for Obama in areas bordering on Chicago. If Mitch Daniels is the GOP candidate, he wins IN. If Daniels doesn’t win the GOP nomination, he can always campaign for the nominee, comparing the state budget surplus with the chaos at the Federal level, and the Republican should win IN.

Missouri could be crucial, since McCain only won in a squeaker in ’08, and in 2010 MO elected a Republican Senator and a Democrat Governor. Clare McCaskill, who won a squeaker in ’06, is up for re-election, and she has been sometimes distancing herself from Obama to save her seat–which may cause Indies to distance themselves from Obama.

If the Republican nominee can win FL, NC, VA, IN, and MO, this gives the Republican all the Bush 2000 states except OH, CO, and NH. Due to extra electoral votes in TX, FL, GA, and UT relative to 2000, the GOP nominee would not need NH if he/she won OH and CO.

Ohio is absolutely crucial to GOP hopes in 2012, and a lot will depend on public reaction to the policies of new Gov. John Kasich, who was narrowly (52%) elected in 2010 and has challenged the public-service unions, like Scott Walker has in WI. Democrat Senator Sherrod Brown is up for re-election, which could drive turnout, and this state could decide the Presidential election, like it did in 2004.

Colorado is also problematic, where a Democrat won the Senate election in 2010, and the state has been trending to the left, and former CO Senator Ken Salazar is now Interior Secretary. However, rising oil prices might generate a backlash to open the state’s rich shale oil resources for exploration to create jobs there, and a “Drill, Baby, Drill” GOP candidate could win Colorado, if he/she steers clear of immigration issues and former Rep. Tancredo.

If the GOP candidate loses Colorado, its electoral votes could be replaced by Wisconsin, which voted Republican in 2010 for both Governor (Scott Walker) and Senator (Ron Johnson), and the Prosser/Kloppenburg election could be a good barometer for the Presidential election–both sides will be highly motivated in 2012 in WI.

PA, MI, and NM will probably go for Obama, especially MI, due to the pro-union GM bailout. NV will probably go Obama, and NH will go GOP, but they’re small states and don’t really matter in the EV total.

Iowa could be a problem if the GOP nominee comes out against ethanol subsidies, which would be good for the country but bad for IA corn farmers, and the early caucus could give momentum to the wrong GOP candidate.

But IA won’t matter if the eventual GOP nominee can win OH, MO and either CO or WI. IMHO, these four states will decide the election.

Steve Z on April 28, 2011 at 1:17 PM

I wonder why Larry J. Sabato believes the Democrats have Michigan all locked up. Didn’t he read about the ENOUMUS strides we made in the elections last year?

With redistricting in the works due to the huge population shift, I highly doubt that it was merely Republicans who left the state. :)

DannoJyd on April 28, 2011 at 1:17 PM

csdeven on April 28, 2011 at 12:40 PM

OTOH, while the election of ’96 was no fun Clinton’s 2nd term with a GOP majority in Congress was a great success. We had rapid economic growth and a budget close to being in balance. I’ll admit that a good deal of the good news was illusory due to the dot com irrational exuberance. Nonetheless, I would submit that those years were better than much of W’s time in office with a GOP majority.

MJBrutus on April 28, 2011 at 1:19 PM

If we can deliver a strong candidate against Debbie Stabinow we may be able to turn MI.

fourdeucer on April 28, 2011 at 11:53 AM

With all due respect….
You are dreaming. Michigan will still go Democrate in 2012. The unions run big here, lots of illegal immigrants from the middle east and Mexico (and they vote, some cities like Bloomfield hills all you need is a drivers lic.). Detroit is run by Democrates who will not change their ways even in the face of recievership. Black voters (not sure what the pc term is any more) will not vote against a black president.

You what to see a spark of hope in Michigan, then vote out the Levin brothers. When that happens then I will believe the state can go Republican.

mechkiller_k on April 28, 2011 at 1:20 PM

VegasRick on April 28, 2011 at 12:43 PM

I know about the service in the hotels and construction. So they bussed in illegals to vote? Within NV not other states?

csdeven on April 28, 2011 at 1:37 PM

those years were better than much of W’s time in office with a GOP majority.

MJBrutus on April 28, 2011 at 1:19 PM

Right. What I mean is Dole as the nominee. He was a disaster.

csdeven on April 28, 2011 at 1:39 PM

Michigan weighs crackdown on illegal immigrants

We’re working on it.

DannoJyd on April 28, 2011 at 1:41 PM

Does this poll require a picture ID? Otherwise, you might get some poller fraud…

ricer1 on April 28, 2011 at 1:50 PM

When that happens then I will believe the state can go Republican.

mechkiller_k on April 28, 2011 at 1:20 PM

I gave MI. a 5 rating predicated on getting rid of Stabenow, it will be difficult without a name brand conservative republican running. Pete Hoekstra, I guess is not running, Sheriff Boushard is a joke in Oakland county so it will be tough but not imposzsible.

fourdeucer on April 28, 2011 at 1:54 PM

fourdeucer on April 28, 2011 at 1:54 PM

Wow! I thought I was being optimistic with a “3″. Hope your right…have a little vacation cabin in MI.

Tim_CA on April 28, 2011 at 2:50 PM

I based my picks on a conservative nominee.

I think the 2012 electoral map will have different priorities and focus depending on whether the eventual GOP nominee is conservative or a more moderate nominee.

Not that there is anything wrong with being a moderate. ;) (Seinfeld reference)

Since I would prefer a conservative nominee that is how I responded to the poll.

I went with Indiana, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia, and Florida going GOP with a conservative nominee.

Even with these five states the GOP nominee would still need one more state from the list.

I wouldn’t even list Pennsylvania as a battleground. I gave the GOP a 2 there.

Here is a good website if you want to map out the electoral possibilities yourself.

270 To Win
http://www.270towin.com/

chief on April 28, 2011 at 3:16 PM

Missouri could be crucial, since McCain only won in a squeaker in ’08, and in 2010 MO elected a Republican Senator and a Democrat Governor.

Jay Nixon was elected governor in ’08, during the Obama tidal wave, not ’10. What we did in ’10 was put Blunt in Kit Bond’s old seat and shoot down the individual mandate by a 3-1 margin. Trust me, as a Show-Me Stater, we will be full red come ’12, both for the Presidency as well as booting McCaskill out.

zauriel on April 28, 2011 at 5:23 PM