Marist: Say, Obama might have a big problem getting re-elected

posted at 12:15 pm on April 20, 2011 by Ed Morrissey

Marist released more data from its poll this week, the same survey that found a significant slide in Barack Obama’s approval ratings — the survey with a +8 advantage for Democrats in the sample.  In fact, Democrats comprised 35% of the sample, while Republicans only accounted for 27%.  And yet, according to Marist, Obama only has 37% of their respondents committed to a second term for the President (via Newsalert):

President Barack Obama has officially announced that he will seek re-election next year, but he faces an electorate that still needs convincing.  According to this McClatchy-Marist Poll, a plurality of registered voters nationwide — 44% — say they definitely plan to vote against Mr. Obama in 2012.  37% report they definitely plan to vote for him, and 18% are unsure.

Despite the president’s transition into campaign mode, little has changed on this question since McClatchy-Marist last asked it in November.  At that time, 48% of voters said they will not support the president in his re-election bid while 36% thought they would.  16%, at the time, were unsure.

Even among Democrats, Obama isn’t a slam-dunk.  He gets 70% of that 35% to commit to his re-election bid, but 12% “definitely” plan to vote against him.  Obama-cons are in short supply as well, as only 3% of Republicans in the survey will vote for the incumbent.  Nearly a majority of independents have made up their mind to oppose Obama, 47%, with only 32% planning on casting a vote for him and 21% undecided.

On other demographics, Obama doesn’t fare much better.  He only holds 66% of self-described liberals, with 19% planning on opposing him.  Moderates split 44/34 in his favor, a weak result, but not nearly as weak as the income demographics.  Obama loses both the under-$50K and over-$50K demos by almost identical splits, 37/45 and 39/45 respectively.  Among age demos, Obama only leads among the youngest bloc (18-30YOs), and that just barely a majority, 51/29.  Perhaps most alarmingly, he’s losing among both men and wome, 37/43 and 38/45 respectively.

Do Republicans benefit from Obama’s woes?  Mitt Romney gets into a statistical dead heat with Obama at 45/46, but so far he’s the only one who does.  Mike Huckabee comes close at 43/48, and both improved significantly since January.  Sarah Palin, on the other hand, not only doesn’t put a dent in Obama’s numbers at 34/56, it’s almost identical to her January result of 30/56.  Donald Trump loses by a similar margin, 38/54.  Bear in mind, though, that the eight-point sample skew towards Democrats plays a big role in the head-to-head numbers, and the movement in this series is what actually matters.  Romney closed twelve points in the gap, and Huckabee closed ten points, since January.

The Republican nominee matters, but the incumbent has big problems no matter who he ends up facing.  Unless Obama can make the economy move in the next year, he is on his way to a single term in office.


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as only 3% of Republicans in the survey will vote for the incumbent.

er….what? who are these people??

ted c on April 20, 2011 at 12:18 PM

I still don’t think he will be their nominee.

flyfisher on April 20, 2011 at 12:18 PM

Yesssssssss!!!!!!

ornery_independent on April 20, 2011 at 12:18 PM

Unless Obama can make the economy move in the next year, he is on his way to a single term in office.

The economy will move next year alright, just not in the direction that helps Barry.

Good riddance, slug.

AZCoyote on April 20, 2011 at 12:18 PM

there’s a phone ringing at 3 am tonight….and it might be on Hillary’s nightstand.

ted c on April 20, 2011 at 12:18 PM

Time to start literally dragging corpses from the grave and registering them as demorats.

Bishop on April 20, 2011 at 12:19 PM

as only 3% of Republicans in the survey will vote for the incumbent.
er….what? who are these people??

ted c on April 20, 2011 at 12:18 PM

The same ones who voted for Castle over O’Donnell.

fossten on April 20, 2011 at 12:19 PM

Conservatives should take no comfort from this. The left will vote reliably for Obama. He’s got a hard floor of 40-45%. The election will turn on the 10% of low-info voters in the mushy middle who are swayed by intangibles. GOP still has lots of work to do — their messaging on entitlement reform is floundering and failing.

IMO.

Purple Fury on April 20, 2011 at 12:19 PM

So both Romney and Huck look good in a sample heavily skewed to the left.

Big surprise that.

CrazyGene on April 20, 2011 at 12:19 PM

What does Winston Wolf think of the poll?

connertown on April 20, 2011 at 12:20 PM

44% definitely against is brutal – especially with a +8% sample.

Can the Republicans botch this?

forest on April 20, 2011 at 12:21 PM

The Republican nominee matters, but the incumbent has big problems no matter who he ends up facing. Unless Obama can make the economy move in the next year, he is on his way to a single term in office.

Never underestimate the ability of the GOP to shoot itself in the foot.

rbj on April 20, 2011 at 12:21 PM

How about the black voters? What % still support him? That will be telling.

VegasRick on April 20, 2011 at 12:21 PM

Good riddance! Keep the pressure on them, America is finding out who truly does NOT have their backs and it’s driving the far left crazy (which in turn shocks the “normal” dems into wondering who their party is).

Yellowdog12 on April 20, 2011 at 12:21 PM

Darn! That’s a heartbreak. It may detract from my happy dance.

FalseProfit on April 20, 2011 at 12:21 PM

Obambi is gonna get beaten, no, humiliated by a girl! I can’t wait.

ornery_independent on April 20, 2011 at 12:21 PM

er….what? who are these people??
ted c on April 20, 2011 at 12:18 PM

McCain, Graham, Castle, thebluesite.

Bishop on April 20, 2011 at 12:21 PM

Never underestimate the ability of the GOP to shoot itself in the foot head.

rbj on April 20, 2011 at 12:21 PM

Better

NoFanofLibs on April 20, 2011 at 12:22 PM

Grim…

Rocks on April 20, 2011 at 12:22 PM

Please please let this be true!
L

letget on April 20, 2011 at 12:22 PM

The “Obama-Biden” bumper sticker is a rare beast these days.

Most Eco cars nowadays have a large, sticky rectangle on the bumper where that sticker used to be.

When you’ve lost the Prius crowd, might as well finish the 3rd auto-biography and move on.

BobMbx on April 20, 2011 at 12:22 PM

3% of Republicans still in Althouse/Noonan asshattery mode

Schadenfreude on April 20, 2011 at 12:25 PM

My husband and I were discussing this the other day; It’s pretty damn pathetic that a crappy economy is the best hope of keeping Barry from another term.

anniekc on April 20, 2011 at 12:25 PM

the humiliation of his defeat needs to outsize his arrogance.

pop it if you got it.

ted c on April 20, 2011 at 12:26 PM

Better

NoFanofLibs on April 20, 2011 at 12:22 PM

Heh. Indeed. Problem is, the bullet also hits us.

rbj on April 20, 2011 at 12:27 PM

From the Marist poll to God’s ear.

RebeccaH on April 20, 2011 at 12:27 PM

He only holds 66% of self-described liberals, with 19% planning on opposing him.

Don’t count on these numbers to hold up. It’s all about power with this ilk so they’ll hold their noses and come around.

BuzzCrutcher on April 20, 2011 at 12:28 PM

Does anyone actually believe this?

The Pub field is lackluster at best.

The Pubs only hope?

Watch gas prices.

rickyricardo on April 20, 2011 at 12:28 PM

On the basis of what the late great H.L. Mencken said that “No one ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public.”, only when I see Obama not get the nomination will I then believe it.

Until then, I take reports like this with a proverbial grain of salt.

pilamaye on April 20, 2011 at 12:28 PM

It’s pretty damn pathetic that a crappy economy is the best hope of keeping Barry from another term.

anniekc on April 20, 2011 at 12:25 PM

Its a symbiotic relationship.

BobMbx on April 20, 2011 at 12:29 PM

BobMbx on April 20, 2011 at 12:22 PM

No problem, the ever-present “What Would Wellstone Do?” stickers are alive and well. I see one every day on the back of a gray minivan when I’m dropping my kids at school.

I’m of a mind to order one of the “He’s Dead – Time To Park the Bus” stickers for my truck.

Bishop on April 20, 2011 at 12:29 PM

Unless Obama can make the economy move in the next year, he is on his way to a single term in office.

I’ll drink to that and I am Mormon

The Rock on April 20, 2011 at 12:29 PM

Unless Obama can make the economy move in the next year, he is on his way to a single term in office.

I doubt it. Bambi has the advantage in that he can move to the right (at least rhetorically) to claim the independents. The left is not going to leave him. The Republican nominee doesn’t have the ability to move to the left because the Tea Parties WILL leave him (or her.) Thus Bambi does enough to claim the center and wins reelection.

Besides the current crop of candidates doesn’t really thrill anyone. Now if Ryan or Rubio decides to run, well, that would be very interesting. But Romney? Pawlenty? Huckabee? Very doubtful.

PackerBronco on April 20, 2011 at 12:30 PM

as only 3% of Republicans in the survey will vote for the incumbent.

er….what? who are these people??

ted c on April 20, 2011 at 12:18 PM

Right?

That’s still fairly significant – really makes you wonder.

I mean other than McCain and Schwartzenagger…….?

Tim_CA on April 20, 2011 at 12:33 PM

His overall approval isn’t a huge problem in and of itself, it just says that the number of EVs he got in 2008 is probably the high watermark of what he could hit in 2012.

The problems come with his approval in a number of states that swung his way in 2008 where he’s severely in trouble, including but not limited to Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Indiana, Ohio, Nebraska (Omaha CD), Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.

Between the -7 EV change due to the census and the likelihood he’ll lose FL, NC, IN, VA, NH, and OH, he’ll have to pray that he can hold on to some of the traditionally blue / purple states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan.

If he loses the six I listed plus Wisconsin, then he’s toast.

teke184 on April 20, 2011 at 12:34 PM

Well it appears bho and team are up to no good again! They don’t give a flit that the house, senate, or SC says, bho just does his little gold eo pen thing! Someone HAS got to stop this! I wouldn’t put anything pass this crooked bho and team.

http://directorblue.blogspot.com/2011/04/they-lost-in-supreme-court-they-lost-in.html
L

letget on April 20, 2011 at 12:34 PM

PackerBronco on April 20, 2011 at 12:30 PM

I agree. This won’t be easy.

And yet, on a state-by-state basis, which is where it really counts, things aren’t looking all that bad. I do not see Obama holding OH or FL even if the GOP fields a lackluster candidate.

Missy on April 20, 2011 at 12:34 PM

Based on the crop of GOP contenders, I give him a very likely chance of reelection.

And frankly, that may not be the worst outcome, IF the GOP wins a super-majority in the Senate and retains the House. There’s a lot to be said for divided government.

MJBrutus on April 20, 2011 at 12:35 PM

The Republican nominee matters, but the incumbent has big problems no matter who he ends up facing. Unless Obama can make the economy move in the next year, he is on his way to a single term in office.

THIS.

As for the supposed Palin/Obama “blowout” are you seriously going to tell me straight that a poll showing a larger number of voters (incl independents) that will NOT vote for Obama again also say suddenly they’d vote for him over a clear contrast candidate in Palin???

Sure I’m a Palin supporter, but any objective person would conclude this is complete BS.

As Ed said above, elections are a referendum on the incumbent, not the challenger.

davek70 on April 20, 2011 at 12:35 PM

His path to power has always been one of corruption, lies and abuse. This is where he will put all his energies. These energies and the money behind them will be awesome.

Consider the small but many ways he can effect dishonest advantages. Do not consider any out of bounds. Go to the limits of the inconceivable. It is true: the next 18 months will be like NOTHING you have ever seen.

This is why we can’t go anywhere near an establishment GOP candidate. They understand nothing of this. Even if they did, they wouldn’t know what to do about it. They wouldn’t want to.

rrpjr on April 20, 2011 at 12:36 PM

Gov. Abercrombie Caught In Another Obama Birth Lie

http://conservativeblogscentral.blogspot.com/2011/04/gov-abercrombie-caught-in-another-obama.html

Nearly Nobody on April 20, 2011 at 12:36 PM

Between the -7 EV change due to the census and the likelihood he’ll lose FL, NC, IN, VA, NH, and OH, he’ll have to pray that he can hold on to some of the traditionally blue / purple states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan.

If he loses the six I listed plus Wisconsin, then he’s toast.

teke184 on April 20, 2011 at 12:34 PM

Good analysis. I’m not sure about NH – have you seen polling or do you have special knowledge of the state? My sense is that all of NE will still fall in the blue column, but maybe my info’s not current.

I’m also worried about NC.

Missy on April 20, 2011 at 12:37 PM

er….what? who are these people??

ted c on April 20, 2011 at 12:18 PM

It’s Obama’s pant creases. They’re spell-binding!

gwelf on April 20, 2011 at 12:38 PM

Sarah Palin, on the other hand, not only doesn’t put a dent in Obama’s numbers at 34/56, it’s almost identical to her January result of 30/56.

But she’s the only one who can save this great nation!!!! REAL AMERICAAAAAA rabblerabble

ernesto on April 20, 2011 at 12:38 PM

ernesto on April 20, 2011 at 12:38 PM

H/A’s version of the Stockholm Syndrome?

MJBrutus on April 20, 2011 at 12:40 PM

“Unless Obama can make the economy move in the next year, he is on his way to a single term in office.”

With every thing that Obowma has done to try to ruin this country…

… With all his lies, Marxist/Socialist policies, countless Czars working behind closed doors on who knows what, and with a benefactor like George Soros calling the shots,

You really still believe that Obowma will quietly abide by the Constitution and laws of this country…

… and graciously leave office and disappear into the night?

Seven Percent Solution on April 20, 2011 at 12:40 PM

There’s a lot to be said for divided government.

MJBrutus on April 20, 2011 at 12:35 PM

Agree with you there. And second terms are tough. Clinton held on but had a rough go of it in his second term, which in turn made it difficult for Gore. Maybe that’s why some potential GOP candidates are keeping their powder dry for 2016.

I would love to see a GOP Senate beat up on Barry.

Missy on April 20, 2011 at 12:40 PM

Alternate headline: Despite Obama’s miserable poll numbers, all potential Republican candidates poll worse.

What a pathetic GOP field! Time for a “Draft Christie” movement.

cool breeze on April 20, 2011 at 12:41 PM

What a pathetic GOP field! Time for a “Draft Christie” movement.

cool breeze on April 20, 2011 at 12:41 PM

Christie/West 2012.

VegasRick on April 20, 2011 at 12:42 PM

Can the Republicans botch this?

forest on April 20, 2011 at 12:21 PM

You betcha!

halfastro on April 20, 2011 at 12:42 PM

He hates America. The elites can’t see it but we can.

I think Egypt has an opening for a muslim brotherhood organizer.

stenwin77 on April 20, 2011 at 12:43 PM

Obama’s trajectory is almost identical to that of Carter.

And yet, Carter led Reagan by 20+ points as late as March 1980.

So I don’t put much stock in head-to-head polls at this point, but overall trends with re-elect/not re-elect are very telling.

Norwegian on April 20, 2011 at 12:43 PM

Based on the crop of GOP contenders, I give him a very likely chance of reelection.

And frankly, that may not be the worst outcome, IF the GOP wins a super-majority in the Senate and retains the House. There’s a lot to be said for divided government.

MJBrutus on April 20, 2011 at 12:35 PM

While it would be sweet to control both houses in a divided government scenario (spending a term beating some common sense into young Barry), we need a strong fiscal conservative in the big seat before inflation catches up in spades. Let’s also remember that this healthcare fiasco needs to be dissassembled post-haste.

IMO…Obama has pushed Conservatives beyond settling for divided government….at least next term.

Tim_CA on April 20, 2011 at 12:43 PM

Sarah Palin, on the other hand, not only doesn’t put a dent in Obama’s numbers at 34/56, it’s almost identical to her January result of 30/56.

But she’s the only one who can save this great nation!!!! REAL AMERICAAAAAA rabblerabble

ernesto on April 20, 2011 at 12:38 PM

Hmmmmmm:

Even among Democrats, Obama isn’t a slam-dunk. He gets 70% of that 35% to commit to his re-election bid, but 12% “definitely” plan to vote against him.

On other demographics, Obama doesn’t fare much better. He only holds 66% of self-described liberals, with 19% planning on opposing him.

Looks like your time may be better spent proselytizing over at the Huffpo, my man.

Kataklysmic on April 20, 2011 at 12:45 PM

OT:
Has Obama made any effort to respond to the horrific tornado outbreak in the South? Texas wildfires?
Oh, he loves Texas alright.

carbon_footprint on April 20, 2011 at 12:47 PM

IF the GOP wins a super-majority in the Senate and retains the House. There’s a lot to be said for divided government.

MJBrutus on April 20, 2011 at 12:35 PM

Not going to happen. Super-majority is defined as 2/3 majority in both houses. There is no way Obama wins re-election and the GOP make those kind of gains in Congress.

Norwegian on April 20, 2011 at 12:47 PM

I think Egypt has an opening for a muslim brotherhood organizer.

stenwin77 on April 20, 2011 at 12:43 PM

LMAO
(writing that one down)

Tim_CA on April 20, 2011 at 12:48 PM

as only 3% of Republicans in the survey will vote for the incumbent.
er….what? who are these people??

ted c on April 20, 2011 at 12:18 PM

Peggy Noonan, David Brooks, Kathleen Parker and Christopher Buckley.

Bobbertsan on April 20, 2011 at 12:49 PM

as only 3% of Republicans in the survey will vote for the incumbent.

er….what? who are these people??

ted c on April 20, 2011 at 12:18 PM

Colin Powell, Condi Rice, etc.

IowaWoman on April 20, 2011 at 12:51 PM

er….what? who are these people??

ted c on April 20, 2011 at 12:18 PM

Terryannonline,Meredith,crr6,chumpthreads,Chudi.

portlandon on April 20, 2011 at 12:53 PM

Despite the president’s transition into campaign mode

When did he transition out of it?

There’s a lot to be said for divided government.

MJBrutus on April 20, 2011 at 12:35 PM

Not with a president who considers himself above the law.

INC on April 20, 2011 at 12:53 PM

Or perhaps we won’t have to worry about him even running in 2012 based on the Drudge siren today with the Corsi book coming out next month.

Youngs98 on April 20, 2011 at 12:54 PM

Looks like Barry will be a one-term wonder. And a BAD one at that.

Who knew? Certainly not the whores in the MSM.

GarandFan on April 20, 2011 at 12:55 PM

Norwegian on April 20, 2011 at 12:47 PM

By super-majority, I’m referring to 60 Senator and a simple majority in the House. Enough to override a Presidential veto.

MJBrutus on April 20, 2011 at 12:59 PM

GarandFan on April 20, 2011 at 12:55 PM

Who is going to topple him?

MJBrutus on April 20, 2011 at 1:00 PM

Between the -7 EV change due to the census and the likelihood he’ll lose FL, NC, IN, VA, NH, and OH, he’ll have to pray that he can hold on to some of the traditionally blue / purple states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan.

If he loses the six I listed plus Wisconsin, then he’s toast.

teke184 on April 20, 2011 at 12:34 PM

Good analysis. I’m not sure about NH – have you seen polling or do you have special knowledge of the state? My sense is that all of NE will still fall in the blue column, but maybe my info’s not current.

I’m also worried about NC.

Missy on April 20, 2011 at 12:37 PM

No specific polling data on NH, just a hunch based off the swing back to the Republicans the state has had in the past few years.

The Dems who took over thanks to the influx from Massachusetts went completely against state traditions by greatly increasing state spending and going further left than traditional New Hampshire Dems did at the local and national level. This helped set up a virtual landslide for Republicans there in 2010 where they won 20 of 24 State Senate seats, both US House seats, and a US Senate seat, amongst other offices, although Dem John Lynch was elected governor.

If the state in general is not happy with big-spending big-government candidates, like some of the House members who got deposed such as Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D-NH), then I don’t necessarily see them following the rest of New England in voting for Obama in 2012.

That’s not to say that a conservative candidate like a Palin or Bachmann would win the state, but that a generic Republican candidate would have a good shot.

teke184 on April 20, 2011 at 1:05 PM

All he has to do is raise taxes on anyone making $500+ to 198% and he will be loved and adored by the public once again.
– crr6, Paul Krugman

angryed on April 20, 2011 at 1:11 PM

Unless Obama can make the economy move in the next year, he is on his way to a single term in office.

Okay, Ed, if that doesn’t happen I’m sueing! You promised!

What is an economic move anyway?

petunia on April 20, 2011 at 1:14 PM

Looks like Barry will be a one-term wonder. And a BAD one at that.

GarandFan on April 20, 2011 at 12:55 PM

Worst president in US history.

Hands-down.

Grace_is_sufficient on April 20, 2011 at 1:15 PM

Elections are a referendum on the incumbent only if the challenger isn’t a lightning rod. As Bill-O pointed out last night, Palin, Trump and Bachmann suck all the oxygen out of the room. Any one of them as the nominee focuses the attention on the challenger, when we want it to be on Obama and his record.

Don’t like O’Reilly? Brit Hume said the same thing about the pitfalls of nominating a lightning rod a couple of weeks ago. Don’t like Brit? Then you’re hopeless.

Meredith on April 20, 2011 at 1:16 PM

Romney, Huckabee, Palin and Trump. Let that sink in a minute. *shiver*

What were Bush’s numbers at this time in his first term? Felt like they were tumbling pretty hard until… the Dems nominated Kerry. *whew*

I sense a similar outcome.

Dash on April 20, 2011 at 1:19 PM

Elections are a referendum on the incumbent only if the challenger isn’t a lightning rod. As Bill-O pointed out last night, Palin, Trump and Bachmann suck all the oxygen out of the room. Any one of them as the nominee focuses the attention on the challenger, when we want it to be on Obama and his record.

Don’t like O’Reilly? Brit Hume said the same thing about the pitfalls of nominating a lightning rod a couple of weeks ago. Don’t like Brit? Then you’re hopeless.

Meredith on April 20, 2011 at 1:16 PM

This is a good example of why I wish we could see the poster’s name before reading the post.

Then I could have just skipped that pile of crap.

fossten on April 20, 2011 at 1:20 PM

On other demographics, Obama doesn’t fare much better. He only holds 66% of self-described liberals, with 19% planning on opposing him.

yea right. They say that now, but who will they vote for instead? A RETHUGLIKKKAN? I don’t think so. They may not work their asses off like they did in 2008, but they will still vote for Obama. Let’s not kid ourselves.

angryed on April 20, 2011 at 1:21 PM

All you optimists out there – If the polling trend continues,

There will be crisis after crisis for the WH to exploit before Nov 2012.

Bank on it.

Sir Napsalot on April 20, 2011 at 1:21 PM

Elections are a referendum on the incumbent only if the challenger isn’t a lightning rod. As Bill-O pointed out last night, Palin, Trump and Bachmann suck all the oxygen out of the room. Any one of them as the nominee focuses the attention on the challenger, when we want it to be on Obama and his record.

True to a point.

The problem is that Barry, thanks to having the media in his pocket, will likely attempt to make it about his opponent rather than himself no matter who the GOP candidate is.

This can get turned around if there’s a debate, the opponent holds their own, and Barry stumbles in some way such as a blatantly wrong answer or losing his cool. This is still media-dependent, though, both in him getting called on his BS, the right question getting asked, and the media not spinning it in his favor after the fact.

teke184 on April 20, 2011 at 1:23 PM

as only 3% of Republicans in the survey will vote for the incumbent.
er….what? who are these people??

ted c on April 20, 2011 at 12:18 PM

The same ones who voted for Castle over O’Donnell.

fossten on April 20, 2011 at 12:19 PM

All those Chris Buckley and Kathleen Parker types.

slickwillie2001 on April 20, 2011 at 1:31 PM

His overall approval isn’t a huge problem in and of itself, it just says that the number of EVs he got in 2008 is probably the high watermark of what he could hit in 2012.

The problems come with his approval in a number of states that swung his way in 2008 where he’s severely in trouble, including but not limited to Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Indiana, Ohio, Nebraska (Omaha CD), Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.

Between the -7 EV change due to the census and the likelihood he’ll lose FL, NC, IN, VA, NH, and OH, he’ll have to pray that he can hold on to some of the traditionally blue / purple states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan.

If he loses the six I listed plus Wisconsin, then he’s toast.

teke184 on April 20, 2011 at 12:34 PM

Yep. Although I think the new census takes 6 away from him not 7. This is by taking 2008 elections and using 2012 EVs by state. Doesn’t sound like much, but NH is 4, NM is 5, Nevada is 6. It’s basically allows the GOPer to lose one of those states and still “win” it.

angryed on April 20, 2011 at 1:34 PM

Palin, Trump and Bachmann suck all the oxygen out of the room.

You could add Gingrich, Romney and Huckabee to that list.

Pawlenty and Daniels make McCain and Dole look exciting by comparison. And the response of most voters to the rest of the field is “Who?”.

We are doomed if a dark horse candidate doesn’t emerge.

cool breeze on April 20, 2011 at 1:42 PM

The destroyer USS Obama is UNSTOPPABLE! Move aside peons, the rules don’t apply to me and there is nothing you can do to stop me.

Fender54 on April 20, 2011 at 1:43 PM

You know how in Third World banana republics, the Dear Leader is afraid to leave the country because the head of the Army will take over while he is vacationing in the South of France?

I think in this case, the Dear Leader is afraid to let Hillary Clinton come home!

Haiku Guy on April 20, 2011 at 1:48 PM

ernesto on April 20, 2011 at 12:38 PM

Don’t you have a PEU meeting to run off to?

Del Dolemonte on April 20, 2011 at 1:50 PM

Sarah Palin, on the other hand, not only doesn’t put a dent in Obama’s numbers at 34/56, it’s almost identical to her January result of 30/56.

But she’s the only one who can save this great nation!!!! REAL AMERICAAAAAA rabblerabble

ernesto on April 20, 2011 at 12:38 PM

Ernesto in a rare moment of clarity.

rickyricardo on April 20, 2011 at 2:02 PM

Does anyone other than me think there may be a connection between Trump coming strong on the Obama birth certificate the last few weeks and the Corsi book? Since he has said he has investigators working on this, it could be possible he was behind the financing of them for the book, and he and Corsi could be working on this together. Corsi had to have lots of investigators going to several different locales and he would probably have had to have someone to finance it. The timing of Trump’s charges and the book release seems a little too convenient. Now with all the attention to this provided by Trump, the book will be a huge bestseller.

silvernana on April 20, 2011 at 2:02 PM

…and in the batters box we have Sarah ‘the Barracuda’ Palin…

Amadeus on April 20, 2011 at 2:12 PM

Just wait until Hillary announces she will primary Obama to save us from his radical ways. Then we will see how big of problem he has when the Media does not know who to love.

Where a Kennedy tries a Clinton would win.

tjexcite on April 20, 2011 at 2:20 PM

OT:
Has Obama made any effort to respond to the horrific tornado outbreak in the South? Texas wildfires?
Oh, he loves Texas alright.

Ah, never mind. Drudge has it.

Obama Skips Tornado Destruction, Heads West to Raise Money

I’m quite sure the MSM would have given Bush a pass had he done something similar.

carbon_footprint on April 20, 2011 at 2:42 PM

I bet he still gets 99% of the black vote.

Alden Pyle on April 20, 2011 at 2:47 PM

Even according to his own book, Obama made a calculated attempt to run as a cipher in the last election. Now, he has to run on his own record and his stated ideology. He is his own worst enemy.

I would not fret too much about the Republican challenger. Obama, the true man and not the cipher, is abhorrent to most Americans.

StubbleSpark on April 20, 2011 at 2:51 PM

There will be crisis after crisis for the WH to exploit before Nov 2012.

Bank on it.

Sir Napsalot on April 20, 2011 at 1:21 PM

..respectfully, like he capitalized on the Gulf Oil Spill? The Underpants bomber and other “thwarted” attempts? The Libyan situation? Turning the “good war” in Afghanistan into a pig’s breakfast? The purchase of GM? The $830B stimulus bill? The health care crisis and resulting Obamacare?

you want more? There’s a great site where this clown’s missteps have been faithfully chronicled — The Obama Fail Blog — head over there and check the nauseating trail of tears and ask yourself if this Pantload can handle a crisis.

To quote “W”, “Bring it on!”

The War Planner on April 20, 2011 at 2:58 PM

To quote “W”, “Bring it on!”

The War Planner on April 20, 2011 at 2:58 PM

In other words, there might be a possibility of a suspension of the Nov 2012 election due to ‘emergency stay’ of executive power.

“The norm” as people counting on Obama the Fool’s unpopularity will not apply here.

Sir Napsalot on April 20, 2011 at 3:03 PM

Has anyone seen or voted in the Facebook poll? Granted it’s not “scientific” (but I don’t think you can vote more than once), but it might be significant since most FB users are young(er) people. It asks “Do you think Obama deserves a second term?” Result running about 3 to 1 “NO”

4Freedom on April 20, 2011 at 3:13 PM

teke184 on April 20, 2011 at 1:05 PM

Late getting back to the thread, but thank you for the followup. That’s good info – I’ll watch NH more closely now.

Missy on April 20, 2011 at 3:14 PM

This not news to me, I knew he’d be a one termer, and even told ally my Liberal friends this. A few even agreed.

Sharr on April 20, 2011 at 3:28 PM

Hey silvernana, Yeah, the BC issue is not going away. Promo for “where’s the birth certificate”, is starting to ramp up, it’s #2 at Amazon and moving up. The book comes out May 17. I suspect Jerome Corsi is going to have to pay a lot of taxes on his royalties.

bigmike on April 20, 2011 at 3:43 PM

“Unless Obama can make the economy move in the next year, he is on his way to a single term in office.”

Unless the GOP runs yet another crappy RINO candidate like Romney or Trump or yet another has-been with moral issues such as Gingrich or yet another candidate only the moral majority/evangelical types will ever get behind like Huckabee, he is on his way to a single term in office.

I fear we are going to end up with the 6th crappy candidate in a row since Reagan because of the absurdity of our primary process.

deepdiver on April 20, 2011 at 3:43 PM

as only 3% of Republicans in the survey will vote for the incumbent.
er….what? who are these people??

ted c on April 20, 2011 at 12:18 PM

To answer your question…..MORONS!

Anyone that considers themself a true Republican, or Conservative, wouldn’t in their right minds vote for Obutthead. My guess is…this 3% were taken from the local mental institutions, or the grave yards.

capejasmine on April 20, 2011 at 5:55 PM

Has anyone seen or voted in the Facebook poll? Granted it’s not “scientific” (but I don’t think you can vote more than once), but it might be significant since most FB users are young(er) people. It asks “Do you think Obama deserves a second term?” Result running about 3 to 1 “NO”

4Freedom on April 20, 2011 at 3:13 PM

I have been in a running battle with the children on Leigh Shain’s ‘no’ thread there. I can flame without fear of being banned. It’s a whole gob of fun.

Lanceman on April 20, 2011 at 6:25 PM

Nature of the Sample: Registered Voters
Party ID

Democrat: 35%
Republican: 27%
Independent: 36%
Other: 2%

JeffinSac on April 20, 2011 at 9:56 PM