Hot Air Candidate Approval results

posted at 9:30 am on April 19, 2011 by Patrick Ishmael

I’m going to start off with the Presidential picks even though it’s secondary to our main purpose, and then get to the nitty gritty in the rest of the data. As always, contact me if you have questions or comments; the number of approaches I could take to highlight the data are nearly endless, so tell me if you have a particular wrinkle in mind. 7222 readers participated in the survey.

Sarah Palin once again leads the Primary race among Hot Air readers. She is again followed by Herman Cain in second. Tim Pawlenty and Mitch Daniels take third and fourth place respectively, while Mitt Romney leads a very tight pack of Rand Paul and Michele Bachmann, in fifth.

As always, the numbers are pretty consistent month to month, with the candidate spread widening as people leave the field and votes get reassigned.

There are a lot of ways to look at the favorability data, so since I’ve laid out the overall vote already, let’s start that way. As a reminder, favorability questions were based on a 1-to-7 scale, with 7 being the highest mark.

The blue line is the overall approval average of a candidate. The red line is a peer average — that is, the candidate’s favorability with those who said they voted for someone else. You’ll note that the peer average is always lower than the overall average, since candidates’ supporters have an interest in giving their person marks higher than everyone else.

Supporters on average gave their candidate a rating of 6.49. Non-supporters on average gave those candidates a 3.60 rating. The field as a whole was rated at 3.76, or roughly average-to-below average.

The following chart is sorted by average supporter rating. For what it’s worth, I think it’s fair to call this a measure of supporter “intensity.”

This next graph is the same as the graph above, but rearranged by peer average.

One bar sticks way out. Sarah Palin is well-liked at Hot Air even among those who don’t support her for President, but I think a lot of the flame wars that break out in the comments section are a result of this approval/intensity disparity. Lots of strong Palin supporters skew the overall average up, but when you remove those voters, you get an idea of where everyone else is at. You’ll also note that the farther to the left you go on this chart, the greater the “grassroots rockstar,” but approval doesn’t always translate into votes. Compare to the totals at the top of this post.

Since Donald Trump is presently newsworthy, I’ll also point out that he’s the second-least favored candidate in the Hot Air field. The least favored is, surprisingly, Jon Huntsman, who I didn’t think had yet garnered a high enough profile to illicit that kind of a distinction. We’ll see if that changes going forward.

The overall results follow for each candidate, broken down by rating. Again, this is without supporters removed.

We’ll do another formal Presidential survey in just a few weeks. Stay tuned.

This post was promoted from GreenRoom to HotAir.com.
To see the comments on the original post, look here.


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Comment pages: 1 5 6 7

In truth is, my comments are very productive in that more

often than not, they draw out the nutty Palinista’s, thus illustrating just how kooky they are.

Case in you….Your responses.

csdeven on April 19, 2011 at 6:54 PM

What have I said that is nutty? Explain it to me.

steebo77 on April 19, 2011 at 7:03 PM

You deal in facts, which is “just nutty”.

My comments bring out your true feelings.
csdeven on April 19, 2011 at 7:32 PM

Proof that he’s just into… “Feeeeelllings… nothing more than… feeeeellllingss…”

dominigan on April 20, 2011 at 12:19 PM

Who exactly are these people that think Palin is going to get treated with kid gloves petunia? I do not know 1 person who believes that. She has been treated viciously and anybody who expects things to suddenly be rainbows and lollipops is delusional.

ReneePA on April 20, 2011 at 12:21 PM

She is in a word unstoppable.

At this right the ABP people

unseen on April 19, 2011 at 5:51 PM

Please. Stop.
The Gentlelady may be unstoppable-but she also can’t beat ZERO in the general.
You’d think in a red part of Texas she’d be quite popular.
I’m discovering that…she’s really not.
This is Huckabee territory….except for me. LoL

annoyinglittletwerp on April 19, 2011 at 5:56 PM

We all have been reading about your move to Texas for
months. How long have you been there? A week, or two, or? What do you do -
stroll down the town square and ask complete strangers if
they like Palin?

You, who can hardly string two sentences together that make sense? One who by the content of their anybody but Palin
posts, has obviously not researched anyone’s record, let
alone Palin’s.

By the way, if you want a good bike, don’t go to Target and
spend $140.00. Go to a Trek store. Obviously, you aren’t a Palin expert or a biker babe either.

Amjean on April 20, 2011 at 1:04 PM

I do Gingrich’s resignation was a private failing that reflected on his office. He resigned in disgrace, but it was a noble act to spare the party and the country the stigma of his mistakes.

No, it was not noble. It would have been noble never to put the party and the nation in that position in the first place. The events leading to Gingrich’s resignation were wholly the result of his own actions.

Palin’s was an inabilty to understand her opponents and head off trouble. Palin’s problem was inexperience and lack of political ability.

No, Palin’s resignation was due to unrelenting attacks through trumped-up legal and ethics complaints. She knew what was going on the whole time. There was nothing she could do to “head off trouble.” No amount of experience or political ability on her part could have stopped
what the Obama people were doing.

Everyone always says, well what else could she do?… By that time she had already failed to gain the allies and come up with a way to beat them. That is what leaders do. She isn’t the first, nor will she be the last who was forced from office because of spurious lawsuits. (See Fife Symington, AZ)

So you think by “gaining allies” (although she already had plenty), they all could have suddenly, magically “come up with a way to beat” Team Obama and their henchmen? What you ALWAYS fail to understand (or deliberately choose to ignore) is that the laws on the books were stacked against her. There nothing she could do to defend herself or her family or her staffers (who were themselves becoming targets) as long as she remained Governor. The expense was more than she could bear, and when she tried to set up a legal defense fund, it was ruled illegal. She couldn’t use state resources to defend herself (and even if that would have been an option, I doubt she would have made the taxpayers bear that burden). Dealing with the lawsuits and complaints was eating up the majority of her time and her staffers’ time – how could she do the job she was elected to do under those circumstances? She couldn’t. She also couldn’t properly fight the complaints and lawsuits. The only way to end it all was to resign. She felt comfortable doing this because she had already managed to enact the vast majority of her agenda and fulfill her campaign promises during three full legislative sessions. She trusted her Lieutenant Governer, Sean Parnell, to carry on what they had been fighting for and to do so competently. Bottom line: she did what was right for herself, for her family, for her staff, for the State, and, given her subsequent role in the 2010 elections, for the nation, too.

And it is never the politican’s fault. But it is the politician’s failure.

No, it was not a failure. Gingrich’s resignation and the events leading up to it WERE a failure. Palin’s resignation was making lemonade out of lemons.

I also find it strange that people think Washington DC will treat Palin with kid gloves once she is in the Whitehouse.

Alaska politics is mild compared with DC.

petunia on April 20, 2011 at 12:13 PM

Have you ever been to Alaska or dealt with Alaskan politicians? Probably not. So how do you know? Even if you are right, which you may be, you still fail to understand (or deliberately ignore) the unique ethics laws in place in Alaska at the time, which have subsequently been changed to prevent what happened to Gov. Palin from ever happening again. There are no similar laws on the federal level.

steebo77 on April 20, 2011 at 1:34 PM

Have you ever been to Alaska or dealt with Alaskan politicians? Probably not. So how do you know? Even if you are right, which you may be, you still fail to understand (or deliberately ignore) the unique ethics laws in place in Alaska at the time, which have subsequently been changed to prevent what happened to Gov. Palin from ever happening again. There are no similar laws on the federal level.

steebo77 on April 20, 2011 at 1:34 PM

Actually, the problem was that there was NO statutory protection for the governor in Alaska. Laws have been written and passed under Sean Parnell’s leadership to deal with that, similar to the same statutory protections the president has always had..

gryphon202 on April 20, 2011 at 1:59 PM

I understand the more conservative leanings of the commenters here. But I wonder if they think about the middle of the electorate that will actually decide the election. Of all those I know in this demographic, they are not Palin fans. Whether informed or not, they most likely would not vote for her. We don’t need another John McCain that leave a vacuum for Hope and Change. We have to nominate someone who has a broader appeal. Who? Not sure, but not likely Palin.

JeffB. on April 20, 2011 at 2:02 PM

We don’t need another John McCain that leave a vacuum for Hope and Change. We have to nominate someone who has a broader appeal. Who? Not sure, but not likely Palin.

JeffB. on April 20, 2011 at 2:02 PM

Aren’t you forgetting that John McCain was supposed to be the one with broader appeal? The moderate, not too far to the right candidate that independents would just love? Any talk of “electability” or “appeal to moderates” is pointless. Elections are won by having a clear message that is bold and consistent, not by choosing the most “electable” candidate (which usually means that candidate stands for nothing).

steebo77 on April 20, 2011 at 2:11 PM

Elections are won by having a clear message that is bold and consistent, not by choosing the most “electable” candidate (which usually means that candidate stands for nothing).

steebo77 on April 20, 2011 at 2:11 PM

It floors me how many “electability” advocates will as much as admit that the most electable candidates are the most bland and squishy. I’m tired of the same old ways of doing thing, but apparently not all of my fellow “conservatives” are.

gryphon202 on April 20, 2011 at 2:29 PM

I support Gov. Huckabee. He is a good conservative and a good Republican. He would make a great President. I don’t believe he is a bigot in any way, and I don’t believe he’s a serial tax-and-spender like some people claim. Huckabee did the right thing regarding clemency in Arkansas, i.e. reviewed each case and made the best decision he could based on the info received. And don’t forget, he denied over 90% of clemency requests. Oh, and I don’t know who Elmer Gantry is, I don’t care to know, and his resemblance to some celebrity matters no more to me than Palin’s resemblance to Tina Fey. I think that’s how most American’s will feel.

ceruleanblue on April 20, 2011 at 2:56 PM

Oh, and I don’t know who Elmer Gantry is, I don’t care to know, and his resemblance to some celebrity matters no more to me than Palin’s resemblance to Tina Fey. I think that’s how most American’s will feel.

ceruleanblue on April 20, 2011 at 2:56 PM

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elmer_Gantry#Synopsis

steebo77 on April 20, 2011 at 3:05 PM

Don’t get me wrong. I’m not saying we need a bland “electable” like McCain or Romney. Only that we also don’t need someone that is a non-starter with moderates. Do you really believe Palin has the chops to talk her way out of the hatchet job the media has already done on her, and would likely do again? I don’t see her being able to convince moderates in the middle with Tina Fey and crew stalking her like they will.

I’m hoping for someone like Bolton who could talk circles around Obama, and easily fend off any media attack.

JeffB. on April 20, 2011 at 7:30 PM

Oh, and I don’t know who Elmer Gantry is, I don’t care to know, and his resemblance to some celebrity matters no more to me than Palin’s resemblance to Tina Fey. I think that’s how most American’s will feel.

ceruleanblue on April 20, 2011 at 2:56 PM

I dunno if you bothered looking, but Elmer Gantry isn’t a celebrity — he’s a character in a movie. And it fits Huck to a T.

gryphon202 on April 20, 2011 at 8:24 PM

By the way, if you want a good bike, don’t go to Target and
spend $140.00. Go to a Trek store. Obviously, you aren’t a Palin expert or a biker babe either.

Amjean on April 20, 2011 at 1:04 PM

Actually, if you’re anywhere near Austin, you might consider looking here for a bike. The owner knows a thing or two, even if he is an ignorant liberal regarding politics.

Freelancer on April 20, 2011 at 9:49 PM

Palin’s was an inabilty to understand her opponents and head off trouble. Palin’s problem was inexperience and lack of political ability.

petunia on April 20, 2011 at 12:13 PM

You are quite dense when it comes to discering facts from emotion. Palin was attacked due to a loophole in Alaskan law, a loophole that has since been closed. Therefore, she could not “head off trouble” nor could anyone else help to “head off trouble”…Newt’s private failing was having an affair while at the same time prosecuting Clinton for doing the same…The only thing both incidents have in common is that an R resigned for the good or the State/Institution, something dems have no concept of…

Phi Kappa Beta or not, you prove that sense isn’t common…

Gohawgs on April 21, 2011 at 6:22 AM

Go to a Trek store. Obviously, you aren’t a Palin expert or a biker babe either.

Amjean on April 20, 2011 at 1:04 PM

You gonna front her the money?…

Gohawgs on April 21, 2011 at 6:23 AM

Freelancer on April 20, 2011 at 9:49 PM

She moved to TTEch land…

Gohawgs on April 21, 2011 at 6:24 AM

Don’t know if people are still reading this thread but E! channel had Sarah Palin profiled in their True Hollywood Story tonite and it was actually not a hit piece. I liked it. The Time reporter was actually fair and balanced. Consider me SHOCKED.

karenhasfreedom on April 22, 2011 at 2:18 AM

karenhasfreedom on April 22, 2011 at 2:18 AM

Missed it…But, glad to hear it…

Gohawgs on April 22, 2011 at 3:14 AM

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